Modelling broad‐scale wolverine occupancy in a remote boreal region using multi‐year aerial survey data

Aim

We used data from aerial surveys of wolverine tracks collected in seven winters over a 10‐year period (2003–2012) within a 574,287 km² study area to evaluate the broad‐scale pattern of wolverine occurrence across a remote northern boreal forest region, identifying areas of high and low occupancy.

Location

Northern Ontario, Canada.

Taxon

Wolverine (Gulo gulo Linnaeus, 1758).

Methods

We collected wolverine tracks and observations in 100‐km² hexagonal survey units, making a total of 6,664 visits to 3,039 units, visiting each 1–9 times. We used hierarchical Bayesian occupancy modelling to model wolverine occurrence, and included covariates with the potential to affect detection and/or occupancy probability of wolverines.

Results

we detected wolverines on 946 visits, 14.2% of total visits. Probability of detecting a wolverine varied among years and between the two ecozones in the study area. Wolverine occupancy was negatively related to two important covariates, the geographical coordinate Easting and thawing degree‐days. A site occupancy probability map indicated that wolverine occupancy probabilities were highest, and standard error lowest, in the western and northern portions of the study area.

Main conclusions

The occupancy framework enabled us to use observation data from tracks of this elusive, wide‐ranging carnivore over a vast, remote area while explicitly considering detectability and spatial autocorrelation, yielding a map of probable wolverine distribution in northern Ontario that would not be possible using other methods of detection across a large region. With resource development pressures increasing in this globally significant region in the face of a changing climate, it is important to monitor changes in distribution of species like wolverines that have low population growth rates, large spatial requirements and sensitivity to human disturbance. This study demonstrates a relatively cost‐effective and non‐invasive alternative to monitoring based on wolverine harvest records, which have not been available since 2009 in Ontario due to changes in the provincial regulatory regime for this threatened species.     

Landscape Ecology of Eastern Spotted Skunks in Habitats Restored for Red‐Cockaded Woodpeckers

Although examples are rare, conflicts between species of conservation concern can result from habitat restoration that modifies habitat to benefit a single taxon. A forest restoration program designed to enhance habitat for endangered red‐cockaded woodpeckers (Picoides borealis) may be reducing available habitat for the eastern spotted skunk (Spilogale putorius), a forest‐adapted sympatric species of conservation concern that occurs in the Ouachita National Forest, Arkansas, U.S.A. At small scales, eastern spotted skunks select early successional forest with structural diversity, whereas red‐cockaded woodpeckers prefer mature pine (Pinus spp.) habitat. We surveyed for eastern spotted skunks at 50 managed forest stands, modeled occupancy as a function of landscape‐level habitat factors to examine how features of restoration practices influenced occurrence, and compared known occupied forest stands to those where active red‐cockaded woodpecker nesting clusters were located. The most‐supported occupancy models contained forest stand age (negatively associated) and size (positively associated); suggesting eastern spotted skunks primarily occupy large patches of habitat with dense understory and overhead cover. Red‐cockaded woodpecker nesting clusters were located in smaller and older forest stands. These results suggest that increased overhead cover, which can reduce risk of avian predation, enhances occupancy by small forest carnivores such as eastern spotted skunks. Management activities that increase forest stand rotation length reduce the availability of young dense forest. The practice may enhance the value of habitat for red‐cockaded woodpeckers, but may reduce the occurrence of eastern spotted skunks. Implementing plans that consider critical habitat and extinction risks for multiple species may reduce such conservation conflict.     

Estimating occupancy dynamics for large‐scale monitoring networks: amphibian breeding occupancy across protected areas in the northeast United States

Regional monitoring strategies frequently employ a nested sampling design where a finite set of study areas from throughout a region are selected and intensive sampling occurs within a subset of sites within the individual study areas. This sampling protocol naturally lends itself to a hierarchical analysis to account for dependence among subsamples. Implementing such an analysis using a classic likelihood framework is computationally challenging when accounting for detection errors in species occurrence models. Bayesian methods offer an alternative approach for fitting models that readily allows for spatial structure to be incorporated. We demonstrate a general approach for estimating occupancy when data come from a nested sampling design. We analyzed data from a regional monitoring program of wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) and spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum) in vernal pools using static and dynamic occupancy models. We analyzed observations from 2004 to 2013 that were collected within 14 protected areas located throughout the northeast United States. We use the data set to estimate trends in occupancy at both the regional and individual protected area levels. We show that occupancy at the regional level was relatively stable for both species. However, substantial variation occurred among study areas, with some populations declining and some increasing for both species. In addition, When the hierarchical study design is not accounted for, one would conclude stronger support for latitudinal gradient in trends than when using our approach that accounts for the nested design. In contrast to the model that does not account for nesting, the nested model did not include an effect of latitude in the 95% credible interval. These results shed light on the range‐level population status of these pond‐breeding amphibians, and our approach provides a framework that can be used to examine drivers of local and regional occurrence dynamics.     

Use of classical bird census transects as spatial replicates for hierarchical modeling of an avian community

New monitoring programs are often designed with some form of temporal replication to deal with imperfect detection by means of occupancy models. However, classical bird census data from earlier times often lack temporal replication, precluding detection‐corrected inferences about occupancy. Historical data have a key role in many ecological studies intended to document range shifts, and so need to be made comparable with present‐day data by accounting for detection probability. We analyze a classical bird census conducted in the region of Murcia (SE Spain) in 1991 and 1992 and propose a solution to estimating detection probability for such historical data when used in a community occupancy model: the spatial replication of subplots nested within larger plots allows estimation of detection probability. In our study, the basic sample units were 1‐km transects, which were considered spatial replicates in two aggregation schemes. We fit two Bayesian multispecies occupancy models, one for each aggregation scheme, and evaluated the linear and quadratic effect of forest cover and temperature, and a linear effect of precipitation on species occupancy probabilities. Using spatial rather than temporal replicates allowed us to obtain individual species occupancy probabilities and species richness accounting for imperfect detection. Species‐specific occupancy and community size decreased with increasing annual mean temperature. Both aggregation schemes yielded estimates of occupancy and detectability that were highly correlated for each species, so in the design of future surveys ecological reasons and cost‐effective sampling designs should be considered to select the most suitable aggregation scheme. In conclusion, the use of spatial replication may often allow historical survey data to be applied formally hierarchical occupancy models and be compared with modern‐day data of the species community to analyze global change process.     

Using expert knowledge to incorporate uncertainty in cause‐of‐death assignments for modeling of cause‐specific mortality

Implicit and explicit use of expert knowledge to inform ecological analyses is becoming increasingly common because it often represents the sole source of information in many circumstances. Thus, there is a need to develop statistical methods that explicitly incorporate expert knowledge, and can successfully leverage this information while properly accounting for associated uncertainty during analysis. Studies of cause‐specific mortality provide an example of implicit use of expert knowledge when causes‐of‐death are uncertain and assigned based on the observer's knowledge of the most likely cause. To explicitly incorporate this use of expert knowledge and the associated uncertainty, we developed a statistical model for estimating cause‐specific mortality using a data augmentation approach within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. Specifically, for each mortality event, we elicited the observer's belief of cause‐of‐death by having them specify the probability that the death was due to each potential cause. These probabilities were then used as prior predictive values within our framework. This hierarchical framework permitted a simple and rigorous estimation method that was easily modified to include covariate effects and regularizing terms. Although applied to survival analysis, this method can be extended to any event‐time analysis with multiple event types, for which there is uncertainty regarding the true outcome. We conducted simulations to determine how our framework compared to traditional approaches that use expert knowledge implicitly and assume that cause‐of‐death is specified accurately. Simulation results supported the inclusion of observer uncertainty in cause‐of‐death assignment in modeling of cause‐specific mortality to improve model performance and inference. Finally, we applied the statistical model we developed and a traditional method to cause‐specific survival data for white‐tailed deer, and compared results. We demonstrate that model selection results changed between the two approaches, and incorporating observer knowledge in cause‐of‐death increased the variability associated with parameter estimates when compared to the traditional approach. These differences between the two approaches can impact reported results, and therefore, it is critical to explicitly incorporate expert knowledge in statistical methods to ensure rigorous inference.     

Modeling stream fish distributions using interval‐censored detection times

Controlling for imperfect detection is important for developing species distribution models (SDMs). Occupancy‐detection models based on the time needed to detect a species can be used to address this problem, but this is hindered when times to detection are not known precisely. Here, we extend the time‐to‐detection model to deal with detections recorded in time intervals and illustrate the method using a case study on stream fish distribution modeling. We collected electrofishing samples of six fish species across a Mediterranean watershed in Northeast Portugal. Based on a Bayesian hierarchical framework, we modeled the probability of water presence in stream channels, and the probability of species occupancy conditional on water presence, in relation to environmental and spatial variables. We also modeled time‐to‐first detection conditional on occupancy in relation to local factors, using modified interval‐censored exponential survival models. Posterior distributions of occupancy probabilities derived from the models were used to produce species distribution maps. Simulations indicated that the modified time‐to‐detection model provided unbiased parameter estimates despite interval‐censoring. There was a tendency for spatial variation in detection rates to be primarily influenced by depth and, to a lesser extent, stream width. Species occupancies were consistently affected by stream order, elevation, and annual precipitation. Bayesian P‐values and AUCs indicated that all models had adequate fit and high discrimination ability, respectively. Mapping of predicted occupancy probabilities showed widespread distribution by most species, but uncertainty was generally higher in tributaries and upper reaches. The interval‐censored time‐to‐detection model provides a practical solution to model occupancy‐detection when detections are recorded in time intervals. This modeling framework is useful for developing SDMs while controlling for variation in detection rates, as it uses simple data that can be readily collected by field ecologists.     

Occupancy of red‐naped sapsuckers in a coniferous forest: using LiDAR to understand effects of vegetation structure and disturbance

Red‐naped sapsuckers (Sphyrapicus nuchalis) are functionally important because they create sapwells and cavities that other species use for food and nesting. Red‐naped sapsucker ecology within aspen (Populus tremuloides) has been well studied, but relatively little is known about red‐naped sapsuckers in conifer forests. We used light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data to examine occupancy patterns of red‐naped sapsuckers in a conifer‐dominated system. We surveyed for sapsuckers at 162 sites in northern Idaho, USA, during 2009 and 2010. We used occupancy models and an information‐theoretic approach to model sapsucker occupancy as a function of four LiDAR‐based metrics that characterized vegetation structure and tree harvest, and one non‐LiDAR metric that characterized distance to major roads. We evaluated model support across a range of territory sizes using Akaike's information criterion. Top model support was highest at the 4‐ha extent, which suggested that 4 ha was the most relevant scale describing sapsucker occupancy. Sapsuckers were positively associated with variation of canopy height and harvested area, and negatively associated with shrub and large tree density. These results suggest that harvest regimes and structural diversity of vegetation at moderate extents (e.g., 4 ha) largely influence occurrence of red‐naped sapsuckers in conifer forests. Given the current and projected declines of aspen populations, it will be increasingly important to assess habitat relationships, as well as demographic characteristics, of aspen‐associated species such as red‐naped sapsuckers within conifer‐dominated systems to meet future management and conservation goals.     

ednaoccupancy: An r package for multiscale occupancy modelling of environmental DNA data

In this article, we describe ednaoccupancy , an r package for fitting Bayesian, multiscale occupancy models. These models are appropriate for occupancy surveys that include three nested levels of sampling: primary sample units within a study area, secondary sample units collected from each primary unit and replicates of each secondary sample unit. This design is commonly used in occupancy surveys of environmental DNA (eDNA). ednaoccupancy allows users to specify and fit multiscale occupancy models with or without covariates, to estimate posterior summaries of occurrence and detection probabilities, and to compare different models using Bayesian model‐selection criteria. We illustrate these features by analysing two published data sets: eDNA surveys of a fungal pathogen of amphibians and eDNA surveys of an endangered fish species.     

Occupancy versus colonization–extinction models for projecting population trends at different spatial scales

Understanding spatiotemporal population trends and their drivers is a key aim in population ecology. We further need to be able to predict how the dynamics and sizes of populations are affected in the long term by changing landscapes and climate. However, predictions of future population trends are sensitive to a range of modeling assumptions. Deadwood‐dependent fungi are an excellent system for testing the performance of different predictive models of sessile species as these species have different rarity and spatial population dynamics, the populations are structured at different spatial scales, and they utilize distinct substrates. We tested how the projected large‐scale occupancies of species with differing landscape‐scale occupancies are affected over the coming century by different modeling assumptions. We compared projections based on occupancy models against colonization–extinction models, conducting the modeling at alternative spatial scales and using fine‐ or coarse‐resolution deadwood data. We also tested effects of key explanatory variables on species occurrence and colonization–extinction dynamics. The hierarchical Bayesian models applied were fitted to an extensive repeated survey of deadwood and fungi at 174 patches. We projected higher occurrence probabilities and more positive trends using the occupancy models compared to the colonization–extinction models, with greater difference for the species with lower occupancy, colonization rate, and colonization:extinction ratio than for the species with higher estimates of these statistics. The magnitude of future increase in occupancy depended strongly on the spatial modeling scale and resource resolution. We encourage using colonization–extinction models over occupancy models, modeling the process at the finest resource‐unit resolution that is utilizable by the species, and conducting projections for the same spatial scale and resource resolution at which the model fitting is conducted. Further, the models applied should include key variables driving the metapopulation dynamics, such as the availability of suitable resource units, habitat quality, and spatial connectivity.     

Nest use dynamics of an undisturbed population of bald eagles

Management or conservation targets based on demographic rates should be evaluated within the context of expected population dynamics of the species of interest. Wild populations can experience stable, cyclical, or complex dynamics, therefore undisturbed populations can provide background needed to evaluate programmatic success. Many raptor species have recovered from large declines caused by environmental contaminants, making them strong candidates for ongoing efforts to understand population dynamics and ecosystem processes in response to human‐caused stressors. Dynamic multistate occupancy models are a useful tool for analyzing species dynamics because they leverage the autocorrelation inherent in long‐term monitoring datasets to obtain useful information about the dynamic properties of population or reproductive states. We analyzed a 23‐year bald eagle monitoring dataset in a dynamic multistate occupancy modeling framework to assess long‐term nest occupancy and reproduction in Lake Clark National Park and Preserve, Alaska. We also used a hierarchical generalized linear model to understand changes in nest productivity in relation to environmental factors. Nests were most likely to remain in the same nesting state between years. Most notably, successful nests were likely to remain in use (either occupied or successful) and had a very low probability of transitioning to an unoccupied state in the following year. There was no apparent trend in the proportion of nests used by eagles through time, and the probability that nests transitioned into or out of the successful state was not influenced by temperature or salmon availability. Productivity was constant over the course of the study, although warm April minimum temperatures were associated with increased chick production. Overall our results demonstrate the expected nesting dynamics of a healthy bald eagle population that is largely free of human disturbance and can be used as a baseline for the expected dynamics for recovering bald eagle populations in the contiguous 48 states.     

Evidence of region‐wide bat population decline from long‐term monitoring and Bayesian occupancy models with empirically informed priors

Strategic conservation efforts for cryptic species, especially bats, are hindered by limited understanding of distribution and population trends. Integrating long‐term encounter surveys with multi‐season occupancy models provides a solution whereby inferences about changing occupancy probabilities and latent changes in abundance can be supported. When harnessed to a Bayesian inferential paradigm, this modeling framework offers flexibility for conservation programs that need to update prior model‐based understanding about at‐risk species with new data. This scenario is exemplified by a bat monitoring program in the Pacific Northwestern United States in which results from 8 years of surveys from 2003 to 2010 require updating with new data from 2016 to 2018. The new data were collected after the arrival of bat white‐nose syndrome and expansion of wind power generation, stressors expected to cause population declines in at least two vulnerable species, little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus) and the hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus). We used multi‐season occupancy models with empirically informed prior distributions drawn from previous occupancy results (2003–2010) to assess evidence of contemporary decline in these two species. Empirically informed priors provided the bridge across the two monitoring periods and increased precision of parameter posterior distributions, but did not alter inferences relative to use of vague priors. We found evidence of region‐wide summertime decline for the hoary bat ( = 0.86 ± 0.10) since 2010, but no evidence of decline for the little brown bat ( = 1.1 ± 0.10). White‐nose syndrome was documented in the region in 2016 and may not yet have caused regional impact to the little brown bat. However, our discovery of hoary bat decline is consistent with the hypothesis that the longer duration and greater geographic extent of the wind energy stressor (collision and barotrauma) have impacted the species. These hypotheses can be evaluated and updated over time within our framework of pre–post impact monitoring and modeling. Our approach provides the foundation for a strategic evidence‐based conservation system and contributes to a growing preponderance of evidence from multiple lines of inquiry that bat species are declining.     

American marten and fisher do not segregate in space and time during winter in a mixed‐forest system

Understanding the mechanisms of coexistence between ecologically similar species is an important issue in ecology. Carnivore coexistence may be facilitated by spatial segregation, temporal avoidance, and differential habitat selection. American martens Martes americana and fishers Pekania pennanti are medium‐sized mustelids that occur sympatrically across portions of North America, yet mechanisms of coexistence between the two species are not fully understood. We assessed spatial and temporal partitioning in martens and fishers in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA, using camera trap data collected during winter 2013–2015. To investigate spatial segregation, we used a dynamic occupancy model to estimate species’ occupancy probabilities and probabilities of persistence and colonization as a function of covariates and yearly occupancy probability for the other species. Temporal segregation was assessed by estimating diel activity overlap between species. We found weak evidence of spatial or temporal niche partitioning of martens and fishers. There was high overlap in forest cover selection, and both marten and fisher occupancy were positively correlated with deciduous forests (excluding aspen [Populus tremuloides]). There was strong temporal overlap (; CI = 0.79–0.82) with both species exhibiting largely crepuscular activity patterns. Co‐occurrence of martens and fishers appears to be facilitated by mechanisms not investigated in this study, such as partitioning of snow features or diet. Our results add additional insights into resource partitioning of mesocarnivores, but further research is required to enhance our understanding of mechanisms that facilitate marten and fisher coexistence.     

Habitat-Suitability Models for Cavity-Nesting Birds in a Postfire Landscape

ABSTRACT Models of habitat suitability in postfire landscapes are needed by land managers to make timely decisions regarding postfire timber harvest and other management activities. Many species of cavity-nesting birds are dependent on postfire landscapes for breeding and other aspects of their life history and are responsive to postfire management activities (e.g., timber harvest). In addition, several cavity nesters are designated as species at risk. We compare the ability of 2 types of models to distinguish between nest and non-nest locations of 6 cavity-nesting bird species (Lewis's woodpecker [Melanerpes lewis], black-backed woodpecker [Picoides arcticus], hairy woodpecker [P. villosus], northern flicker [Colaptes auratus], western bluebird [Sialia mexicana], and mountain bluebird [S. currucoides]) in the early postfire years for a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forest in Idaho, USA. The 2 model sets consisted of 1) models based on readily available remotely sensed data and 2) models containing field-collected data in addition to remotely sensed data (combination models). We evaluated models of nesting habitat by quantifying the model's ability to correctly identify nest and non-nest locations and by determining the percentage of correctly identified nest locations. Additionally, we developed relative habitat-suitability maps for nesting habitat of black-backed and Lewis's woodpeckers from the best models. For all species except Lewis's woodpeckers, model performance improved with the addition of field-collected data. Models containing remotely sensed data adequately distinguished between nest and non-nest locations for black-backed woodpecker and Lewis's woodpecker only, whereas models containing both field-collected and remotely sensed data were adequate for all 6 species. Improvements in the availability of more accurate remote sensing technology would likely lead to improvements in the ability of the models to predict nesting locations. External validation with data from other wildfires is necessary to confirm the general applicability of our habitat-suitability models to other forests. Land managers responsible for maintaining habitat for cavity-nesting birds in postfire landscapes can use these models to identify potential nesting areas for these species and select areas in burned forests where postfire salvage logging is most likely to have minimal impacts on cavity-nesting bird habitats.     

Evaluating Multi-Level Models to Test Occupancy State Responses of Plethodontid Salamanders

Plethodontid salamanders are diverse and widely distributed taxa and play critical roles in ecosystem processes. Due to salamander use of structurally complex habitats, and because only a portion of a population is available for sampling, evaluation of sampling designs and estimators is critical to provide strong inference about Plethodontid ecology and responses to conservation and management activities. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the effectiveness of multi-scale and hierarchical single-scale occupancy models in the context of a Before-After Control-Impact (BACI) experimental design with multiple levels of sampling. Also, we fit the hierarchical single-scale model to empirical data collected for Oregon slender and Ensatina salamanders across two years on 66 forest stands in the Cascade Range, Oregon, USA. All models were fit within a Bayesian framework. Estimator precision in both models improved with increasing numbers of primary and secondary sampling units, underscoring the potential gains accrued when adding secondary sampling units. Both models showed evidence of estimator bias at low detection probabilities and low sample sizes; this problem was particularly acute for the multi-scale model. Our results suggested that sufficient sample sizes at both the primary and secondary sampling levels could ameliorate this issue. Empirical data indicated Oregon slender salamander occupancy was associated strongly with the amount of coarse woody debris (posterior mean = 0.74; SD = 0.24); Ensatina occupancy was not associated with amount of coarse woody debris (posterior mean = -0.01; SD = 0.29). Our simulation results indicate that either model is suitable for use in an experimental study of Plethodontid salamanders provided that sample sizes are sufficiently large. However, hierarchical single-scale and multi-scale models describe different processes and estimate different parameters. As a result, we recommend careful consideration of study questions and objectives prior to sampling data and fitting models.     

Estimating the abundance of burrow‐nesting species through the statistical analysis of combined playback and visual surveys

The conservation of elusive species relies on our ability to obtain unbiased estimates of their abundance trends. Many species live or breed in cavities, making it easy to define the search units (the cavity) yet hard to ascertain their occupancy. One such example is that of certain colonial seabirds like petrels and shearwaters, which occupy burrows to breed. In order to increase the chances of detection for these types of species, their sampling can be done using two independent methods to check for cavity occupancy: visual inspection, and acoustic response to a playback call. This double‐detection process allows us to estimate the probability of burrow occupancy by accounting for the probability of detection associated with each method. Here we provide a statistical framework to estimate the occupancy and population size of burrow‐dwelling species. We show how to implement the method using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches, and test its precision and bias using simulated datasets. We subsequently illustrate how to extend the method to situations where two different species may occupy the burrows, and apply it to a dataset on wedge‐tailed shearwaters Puffinus pacificus and tropical shearwaters P. bailloni on Aride Island, Seychelles. The simulations showed that the single‐species model performed well in terms of error and bias except when detection probabilities and occupancies were very low. The two‐species model applied to shearwaters showed that detection probabilities were highly heterogeneous. The population sizes of wedge‐tailed and tropical shearwaters were estimated at 13 716 (95% CI: 12 909–15 874) and 25 550 (23 667–28 777) pairs respectively. The advantages of formulating the call‐playback sampling method statistically is that it provides a framework to calculate uncertainty in the estimates and model assumptions. This method is applicable to a variety of cavity‐dwelling species where two methods can be used to detect cavity occupancy.     

Detectability and visibility biases associated with using a consumer‐grade unmanned aircraft to survey nesting colonial waterbirds

Surveys of colonial‐nesting waterbirds are needed to assess population trends and gain insight into the health of wetland ecosystems. Use of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) for such surveys has increased over the past decade, but possible sources of bias in surveys conducted with UAS have not been examined. We examined possible visibility biases associated with using a UAS to survey waterbird colonies in cypress‐tupelo watersheds and coastal island habitats in Texas in 2016. We used known numbers of four waterbird decoy types, including Black Skimmers (Rynchops niger), terns, and white‐ and dark‐plumaged herons, to estimate their detectability in each habitat. Six observers independently counted decoys from aerial imagery mosaics taken with a consumer‐grade, off‐the‐shelf quadcopter drone. We used generalized linear mixed‐effects models to estimate detection probabilities of each decoy type. Black Skimmers at the coastal island had a detection probability of just 53%. Detectability of both white‐ and dark‐plumaged herons was lower in the canopied cypress‐tupelo habitat than the coastal island. In addition, cloud cover > 50% further reduced detectability of white heron decoys in cypress‐tupelo habitat. Use of the double‐count method yielded biased‐low abundance estimates for white‐ and dark‐plumaged herons in canopied sites, suggesting that habitat differences were a greater source of bias than observer error. Black Skimmers were the only decoy type to be imperfectly detected at the coastal island, a surprising result given the stark contrast of their plumage with their sand and shell nesting substrate. Our results indicate that UAS‐derived photographic surveys are prone to low detection probabilities at sites where vegetation occludes nests. In habitats without canopy, however, UAS surveys show promise for obtaining accurate counts of terns, white herons, and dark herons.     

Ensemble modeling to predict habitat suitability for a large‐scale disturbance specialist

To conserve habitat for disturbance specialist species, ecologists must identify where individuals will likely settle in newly disturbed areas. Habitat suitability models can predict which sites at new disturbances will most likely attract specialists. Without validation data from newly disturbed areas, however, the best approach for maximizing predictive accuracy can be unclear (Northwestern U.S.A.). We predicted habitat suitability for nesting Black‐backed Woodpeckers (Picoides arcticus; a burned‐forest specialist) at 20 recently (≤6 years postwildfire) burned locations in Montana using models calibrated with data from three locations in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. We developed 8 models using three techniques (weighted logistic regression, Maxent, and Mahalanobis D² models) and various combinations of four environmental variables describing burn severity, the north–south orientation of topographic slope, and prefire canopy cover. After translating model predictions into binary classifications (0 = low suitability to unsuitable, 1 = high to moderate suitability), we compiled “ensemble predictions,” consisting of the number of models (0–8) predicting any given site as highly suitable. The suitability status for 40% of the area burned by eastside Montana wildfires was consistent across models and therefore robust to uncertainty in the relative accuracy of particular models and in alternative ecological hypotheses they described. Ensemble predictions exhibited two desirable properties: (1) a positive relationship with apparent rates of nest occurrence at calibration locations and (2) declining model agreement outside surveyed environments consistent with our reduced confidence in novel (i.e., “no‐analogue”) environments. Areas of disagreement among models suggested where future surveys could help validate and refine models for an improved understanding of Black‐backed Woodpecker nesting habitat relationships. Ensemble predictions presented here can help guide managers attempting to balance salvage logging with habitat conservation in burned‐forest landscapes where black‐backed woodpecker nest location data are not immediately available. Ensemble modeling represents a promising tool for guiding conservation of large‐scale disturbance specialists.     

Simulations inform design of regional occupancy‐based monitoring for a sparsely distributed,territorial species

Sparsely distributed species attract conservation concern, but insufficient information on population trends challenges conservation and funding prioritization. Occupancy‐based monitoring is attractive for these species, but appropriate sampling design and inference depend on particulars of the study system. We employed spatially explicit simulations to identify minimum levels of sampling effort for a regional occupancy monitoring study design, using white‐headed woodpeckers (Picoides albolvartus), a sparsely distributed, territorial species threatened by habitat decline and degradation, as a case study. We compared the original design with commonly proposed alternatives with varying targets of inference (i.e., species range, space use, or abundance) and spatial extent of sampling. Sampling effort needed to achieve adequate power to observe a long‐term population trend (≥80% chance to observe a 2% yearly decline over 20 years) with the previously used study design consisted of annually monitoring ≥120 transects using a single‐survey approach or ≥90 transects surveyed twice per year using a repeat‐survey approach. Designs that shifted inference toward finer‐resolution trends in abundance and extended the spatial extent of sampling by shortening transects, employing a single‐survey approach to monitoring, and incorporating a panel design (33% of units surveyed per year) improved power and reduced error in estimating abundance trends. In contrast, efforts to monitor coarse‐scale trends in species range or space use with repeat surveys provided extremely limited statistical power. Synthesis and applications. Sampling resolutions that approximate home range size, spatially extensive sampling, and designs that target inference of abundance trends rather than range dynamics are probably best suited and most feasible for broad‐scale occupancy‐based monitoring of sparsely distributed territorial animal species.     

Dealing with uncertainty in landscape genetic resistance models: a case of three co‐occurring marsupials

Landscape genetics lacks explicit methods for dealing with the uncertainty in landscape resistance estimation, which is particularly problematic when sample sizes of individuals are small. Unless uncertainty can be quantified, valuable but small data sets may be rendered unusable for conservation purposes. We offer a method to quantify uncertainty in landscape resistance estimates using multimodel inference as an improvement over single model‐based inference. We illustrate the approach empirically using co‐occurring, woodland‐preferring Australian marsupials within a common study area: two arboreal gliders (Petaurus breviceps, and Petaurus norfolcensis) and one ground‐dwelling antechinus (Antechinus flavipes). First, we use maximum‐likelihood and a bootstrap procedure to identify the best‐supported isolation‐by‐resistance model out of 56 models defined by linear and non‐linear resistance functions. We then quantify uncertainty in resistance estimates by examining parameter selection probabilities from the bootstrapped data. The selection probabilities provide estimates of uncertainty in the parameters that drive the relationships between landscape features and resistance. We then validate our method for quantifying uncertainty using simulated genetic and landscape data showing that for most parameter combinations it provides sensible estimates of uncertainty. We conclude that small data sets can be informative in landscape genetic analyses provided uncertainty can be explicitly quantified. Being explicit about uncertainty in landscape genetic models will make results more interpretable and useful for conservation decision‐making, where dealing with uncertainty is critical.     

Bayesian Estimation of Hunting Success Rate and Harvest for Spatially Correlated Post‐stratified Data

We consider the estimation of success rate and harvest under post survey stratification at the sub‐domain (county) level. Often in this situation, the population size for the sub‐domain is unknown and the random mechanism that dictates the sample size for sub‐domains is ignored. Finding good estimators of success rate and harvest is very important for wildlife abundance. A Bayesian hierarchical model is developed to estimate both success rate and harvest simultaneously. The model includes a random sub‐domain sample size correlated with the number of successes in the sub‐domain, fixed week effects, random geographic effects, and spatial correlations between neighboring sub‐domains. The computation is done by Gibbs sampling and adaptive rejection sampling techniques. The method developed is illustrated using data from the Missouri Turkey Hunting Survey. The estimation of success rate is improved by treating the the sub‐domain sample size as a random variable instead of a fixed constant. The Bayesian model yields a reasonable harvest estimation. The spatial pattern of the estimated harvest matches the pattern of the check station data.