Generalisability and Cost-Impact of Antibiotic-Impregnated Central Venous Catheters for Reducing Risk of Bloodstream Infection in Paediatric Intensive Care Units in England

Background

We determined the generalisability and cost-impact of adopting antibiotic-impregnated CVCs in all paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) in England, based on results from a large randomised controlled trial (the CATCH trial; ISRCTN34884569).

Methods

BSI rates using standard CVCs were estimated through linkage of national PICU audit data (PICANet) with laboratory surveillance data. We estimated the number of BSI averted if PICUs switched from standard to antibiotic-impregnated CVCs by applying the CATCH trial rate-ratio (0.40; 95% CI 0.17,0.97) to the BSI rate using standard CVCs. The value of healthcare resources made available by averting one BSI as estimated from the trial economic analysis was £10,975; 95% CI -£2,801,£24,751.

Results

The BSI rate using standard CVCs was 4.58 (95% CI 4.42,4.74) per 1000 CVC-days in 2012. Applying the rate-ratio gave 232 BSI averted using antibiotic CVCs. The additional cost of purchasing antibiotic-impregnated compared with standard CVCs was £36 for each child, corresponding to additional costs of £317,916 for an estimated 8831 CVCs required in PICUs in 2012. Based on 2012 BSI rates, management of BSI in PICUs cost £2.5 million annually (95% uncertainty interval: -£160,986, £5,603,005). The additional cost of antibiotic CVCs would be less than the value of resources associated with managing BSI in PICUs with standard BSI rates >1.2 per 1000 CVC-days.

Conclusions

The cost of introducing antibiotic-impregnated CVCs is less than the cost associated with managing BSIs occurring with standard CVCs. The long-term benefits of preventing BSI could mean that antibiotic CVCs are cost-effective even in PICUs with extremely low BSI rates.     

Linkage to HIV,TB and Non-Communicable Disease Care from a Mobile Testing Unit in Cape Town,South Africa

Background

HIV counseling and testing may serve as an entry point for non-communicable disease screening.

Objectives

To determine the yield of newly-diagnosed HIV, tuberculosis (TB) symptoms, diabetes and hypertension, and to assess CD4 count testing, linkage to care as well as correlates of linkage and barriers to care from a mobile testing unit.

Methods

A mobile unit provided screening for HIV, TB symptoms, diabetes and hypertension in Cape Town, South Africa between March 2010 and September 2011. The yield of newly-diagnosed cases of these conditions was measured and clients were followed-up between January and November 2011 to assess linkage. Linkage to care was defined as accessing care within one, three or six months post-HIV diagnosis (dependent on CD4 count) and one month post-diagnosis for other conditions. Clinical and socio-demographic correlates of linkage to care were evaluated using Poisson regression and barriers to care were determined.

Results

Of 9,806 clients screened, the yield of new diagnoses was: HIV (5.5%), TB suspects (10.1%), diabetes (0.8%) and hypertension (58.1%). Linkage to care for HIV-infected clients, TB suspects, diabetics and hypertensives was: 51.3%, 56.7%, 74.1% and 50.0%. Only disclosure of HIV-positive status to family members or partners (RR=2.6, 95% CI: 1.04-6.3, p=0.04) was independently associated with linkage to HIV care. The main barrier to care reported by all groups was lack of time to access a clinic.

Conclusion

Screening for HIV, TB symptoms and hypertension at mobile units in South Africa has a high yield but inadequate linkage. After-hours and weekend clinics may overcome a major barrier to accessing care.     

Eligibility for Isoniazid Preventive Therapy in South African Gold Mines

Setting

The “Thibela TB” cluster randomised trial of community-wide isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) to reduce tuberculosis incidence in the South African gold mines.

Objectives

To determine the proportion of participants eligible for IPT and the reasons and risk factors for ineligibility, to inform the scale-up of IPT.

Design

Cross-sectional survey of participants in intervention clusters (mine shafts) consenting to tuberculosis screening and assessment for eligibility to start IPT.

Results

Among 27,126 consenting participants, 94.7% were male, the median age was 41 years, 12.2% reported previous tuberculosis, 0.6% reported ever taking IPT and 2.5% reported currently taking antiretroviral therapy. There were 24,430 (90.1%) assessed as eligible to start IPT, of whom 23,659 started IPT. The most common reasons for ineligibility were having suspected tuberculosis that was subsequently confirmed by a positive smear and/or culture (n=705), excessive alcohol consumption (n=427) and being on tuberculosis treatment at time of initial screen (n=241). Ineligibility was associated with factors including older age, female gender, prior history of tuberculosis and being in “HIV care”. However, at least 78% were eligible for IPT in all of these sub-groups.

Conclusions

The vast majority of participants in this community-wide intervention were eligible for IPT.     

Practitioner Perspectives on Strategies to Promote Longer-Term Benefits of Acupuncture or Counselling for Depression: A Qualitative Study

Background

Non-pharmacological interventions for depression may help patients manage their condition. Evidence from a recent large-scale trial (ACUDep) suggests that acupuncture and counselling can provide longer-term benefits for many patients with depression. This paper describes the strategies practitioners reported using to promote longer-term benefits for their patients.

Methods

A qualitative sub-study of practitioners (acupuncturists and counsellors) embedded in a randomised controlled trial. Using topic guides, data was collected from telephone interviews and a focus group, altogether involving 19 counsellors and 17 acupuncturists. Data were audio recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using thematic content analysis.

Results

For longer-term impact, both acupuncturists and counsellors encouraged insight into root causes of depression on an individual basis and saw small incremental changes as precursors to sustained benefit. Acupuncturists stressed the importance of addressing concurrent physical symptoms, for example helping patients relax or sleep better in order to be more receptive to change, and highlighted the importance of Chinese medicine theory-based lifestyle change for lasting benefit. Counsellors more often highlighted the importance of the therapeutic relationship, emphasising the need for careful “pacing” such that the process and tools employed were tailored and timed for each individual, depending on the “readiness” to change. Our data is limited to acupuncture practitioners using the principles of traditional Chinese medicine, and counsellors using a humanistic, non-directive and person-centred approach.

Conclusions

Long-term change appears to be an important focus within the practices of both acupuncturists and counsellors. To achieve this, practitioners stressed the need for an individualised approach with a focus on root causes.     

Exploring a Proposed WHO Method to Determine Thresholds for Seasonal Influenza Surveillance

Introduction

Health authorities find thresholds useful to gauge the start and severity of influenza seasons. We explored a method for deriving thresholds proposed in an influenza surveillance manual published by the World Health Organization (WHO).

Methods

For 2002-2011, we analysed two routine influenza-like-illness (ILI) datasets, general practice sentinel surveillance and a locum medical service sentinel surveillance, plus laboratory data and hospital admissions for influenza. For each sentinel dataset, we created two composite variables from the product of weekly ILI data and the relevant laboratory data, indicating the proportion of tested specimens that were positive. For all datasets, including the composite datasets, we aligned data on the median week of peak influenza or ILI activity and assigned three threshold levels: seasonal threshold, determined by inspection; and two intensity thresholds termed average and alert thresholds, determined by calculations of means, medians, confidence intervals (CI) and percentiles. From the thresholds, we compared the seasonal onset, end and intensity across all datasets from 2002-2011. Correlation between datasets was assessed using the mean correlation coefficient.

Results

The median week of peak activity was week 34 for all datasets, except hospital data (week 35). Means and medians were comparable and the 90% upper CIs were similar to the 95^th percentiles. Comparison of thresholds revealed variations in defining the start of a season but good agreement in describing the end and intensity of influenza seasons, except in hospital admissions data after the pandemic year of 2009. The composite variables improved the agreements between the ILI and other datasets. Datasets were well correlated, with mean correlation coefficients of >0.75 for a range of combinations.

Conclusions

Thresholds for influenza surveillance are easily derived from historical surveillance and laboratory data using the approach proposed by WHO. Use of composite variables is helpful for describing influenza season characteristics.     

Challenges in the Care of Clients with Established Cardiovascular Disease: Lessons Learned from Australian Community Pharmacists

Background

As primary healthcare professionals, community pharmacists have both opportunity and potential to contribute to the prevention and progression of chronic diseases. Using cardiovascular disease (CVD) as a case study, we explored factors that influence community pharmacists’ everyday practice in this area. We also propose a model to best illustrate relationships between influencing factors and the scope of community pharmacy practice in the care of clients with established CVD.

Methods

In-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 21 community pharmacists in New South Wales, Australia. All interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed ad verbatim, and analysed using a “grounded-theory” approach.

Results

Our model shows that community pharmacists work within a complex system and their practice is influenced by interactions between three main domains: the “people” factors, including their own attitudes and beliefs as well as those of clients and doctors; the “environment” within and beyond the control of community pharmacy; and outcomes of their professional care. Despite the complexity of factors and interactions, our findings shed some light on the interrelationships between these various influences. The overarching obstacle to maximizing the community pharmacists’ contribution is the lack of integration within health systems. However, achieving better integration of community pharmacists in primary care is a challenge since the systems of remuneration for healthcare professional services do not currently support this integration.

Conclusion

Tackling chronic diseases such as CVD requires mobilization of all sources of support in the community through innovative policies which facilitate inter-professional collaboration and team care to achieve the best possible healthcare outcomes for society.     

Quality along the Continuum: A Health Facility Assessment of Intrapartum and Postnatal Care in Ghana

Objective

To evaluate quality of routine and emergency intrapartum and postnatal care using a health facility assessment, and to estimate “effective coverage” of skilled attendance in Brong Ahafo, Ghana.

Methods

We conducted an assessment of all 86 health facilities in seven districts in Brong Ahafo. Using performance of key signal functions and the availability of relevant drugs, equipment and trained health professionals, we created composite quality categories in four dimensions: routine delivery care, emergency obstetric care (EmOC), emergency newborn care (EmNC) and non-medical quality. Linking the health facility assessment to surveillance data we estimated “effective coverage” of skilled attendance as the proportion of births in facilities of high quality.

Findings

Delivery care was offered in 64/86 facilities; only 3-13% fulfilled our requirements for the highest quality category in any dimension. Quality was lowest in the emergency care dimensions, with 63% and 58% of facilities categorized as “low” or “substandard” for EmOC and EmNC, respectively. This implies performing less than four EmOC or three EmNC signal functions, and/or employing less than two skilled health professionals, and/or that no health professionals were present during our visit. Routine delivery care was “low” or “substandard” in 39% of facilities, meaning 25/64 facilities performed less than six routine signal functions and/or had less than two skilled health professionals and/or less than one midwife. While 68% of births were in health facilities, only 18% were in facilities with “high” or “highest” quality in all dimensions.

Conclusion

Our comprehensive facility assessment showed that quality of routine and emergency intrapartum and postnatal care was generally low in the study region. While coverage with facility delivery was 68%, we estimated “effective coverage” of skilled attendance at 18%, thus revealing a large “quality gap.” Effective coverage could be a meaningful indicator of progress towards reducing maternal and newborn mortality.     

Appraisal Tools for Clinical Practice Guidelines: A Systematic Review

Introduction

Clinical practice guidelines can improve healthcare processes and patient outcomes, but are often of low quality. Guideline appraisal tools aim to help potential guideline users in assessing guideline quality. We conducted a systematic review of publications describing guideline appraisal tools in order to identify and compare existing tools.

Methods

Among others we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from 1995 to May 2011 for relevant primary and secondary publications. We also handsearched the reference lists of relevant publications.On the basis of the available literature we firstly generated 34 items to be used in the comparison of appraisal tools and grouped them into thirteen quality dimensions. We then extracted formal characteristics as well as questions and statements of the appraisal tools and assigned them to the items.

Results

We identified 40 different appraisal tools. They covered between three and thirteen of the thirteen possible quality dimensions and between three and 29 of the possible 34 items. The main focus of the appraisal tools were the quality dimensions “evaluation of evidence” (mentioned in 35 tools; 88%), “presentation of guideline content” (34 tools; 85%), “transferability” (33 tools; 83%), “independence” (32 tools; 80%), “scope” (30 tools; 75%), and “information retrieval” (29 tools; 73%). The quality dimensions “consideration of different perspectives” and “dissemination, implementation and evaluation of the guideline” were covered by only twenty (50%) and eighteen tools (45%) respectively.

Conclusions

Most guideline appraisal tools assess whether the literature search and the evaluation, synthesis and presentation of the evidence in guidelines follow the principles of evidence-based medicine. Although conflicts of interest and norms and values of guideline developers, as well as patient involvement, affect the trustworthiness of guidelines, they are currently insufficiently considered. Greater focus should be placed on these issues in the further development of guideline appraisal tools.     

Low Levels of Blood Lipids Are Associated with Etiology and Lethal Outcome in Acute Liver Failure

Background/Aims

Emerging data links different aspects of lipid metabolism to liver regeneration. In patients with acute liver failure (ALF), low levels of lipids may correlate with disease severity. Thus, we determined whether there is an etiology-specific link between lipid levels in patients suffering from ALF and aimed to investigate an effect of lipid levels on the prognosis of ALF.

Methods

In this retrospective single center study, we reviewed 89 consecutive ALF patients, who met the criteria of the “Acute Liver Failure Study Group”. Patient characteristics, clinical data and laboratory parameters were individually analyzed at admission and correlated with the patients'' outcome after a four week follow up. Possible endpoints were either discharge, or death or liver transplantation.

Results

High-density lipoprotein (HDL), cholesterol and triglyceride levels were significantly lower in patients who died or required a liver transplant. HDL levels were significantly higher in patients with ALF caused by acetaminophen intoxication, compared to fulminant HBV infection or drug induced liver injury. HDL levels correlated with hepatic injury by ALT levels, and Albumin, and inversely correlated with the MELD score, INR, and bilirubin.

Conclusion

In our cohort of patients with ALF, we could show that HDL and cholesterol are suppressed. In addition novel etiology specific patterns between acteminophen and non-acteminophen induced liver failure were detected for serum lipid components. Further studies are needed to address the role of cholesterol and lipid metabolism and the according pathways in different etiologies of ALF.     

Association of Proteinuria Threshold in Pre-Eclampsia with Maternal and Perinatal Outcomes: A Nested Case Control Cohort of High Risk Women

Objectives

To evaluate occurrence of adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes with different thresholds of proteinuria (300-499mg and ≥500mg/24 hours) in pre-eclamptic women, comparing outcomes against women with chronic and gestational hypertension.

Design

Secondary analysis of the Vitamins in Pre-Eclampsia Trial.

Setting

25 UK hospitals in ten geographical areas.

Population

946 women with pre-existing risk factors for pre-eclampsia.

Methods

Women with pre-eclampsia and proteinuria 300-499mg/24h (PE300, referent group, n=60) or proteinuria ≥500 mg/24h (PE500, n=161) were compared with two groups of non-proteinuric women with chronic hypertension (CHT, n=615) or gestational hypertension (GH, n=110).

Main Outcome Measures

Maternal: progression to severe hypertension. Perinatal: small for gestational age (SGA) <5^th centile, gestation at delivery.

Results

Severe hypertension occurred more frequently in PE500 (35%) and PE300 (27%) than CHT (5.9%; P≤0.01) and GH (10%; p≤0.001). Gestation at delivery was earlier in PE500 (33.2w) than PE300 (37.3w; P≤0.001), and later in CHT (38.3w; P≤0.05) and GH (39.1w; P≤0.001). SGA infants were more frequent in PE300 (32%) than in CHT (13.3%; P≤0.001) and GH (16.5%; P≤0.05). Women in PE500 were more likely to have a caesarean section than PE300 (78% vs. 48%; P≤0.001), and to receive magnesium sulphate (17% vs. 1.7%, P≤0.05).

Conclusion

Women with PE300 have complication rates above those of women managed as out-patients (GH and CHT), meriting closer surveillance and confirming 300 mg/d as an appropriate threshold for determining in-patient management. Adverse perinatal outcomes are higher still in women with PE500.     

Reliable and Accurate CD4+ T Cell Count and Percent by the Portable Flow Cytometer CyFlow MiniPOC and “CD4 Easy Count Kit-Dry”, as Revealed by the Comparison with the Gold Standard Dual Platform Technology

Background

An accurate and affordable CD4+ T cells count is an essential tool in the fight against HIV/AIDS. Flow cytometry (FCM) is the “gold standard” for counting such cells, but this technique is expensive and requires sophisticated equipment, temperature-sensitive monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and trained personnel. The lack of access to technical support and quality assurance programs thus limits the use of FCM in resource-constrained countries. We have tested the accuracy, the precision and the carry-over contamination of Partec CyFlow MiniPOC, a portable and economically affordable flow cytometer designed for CD4+ count and percentage, used along with the “CD4% Count Kit-Dry”.

Materials and Methods

Venous blood from 59 adult HIV+ patients (age: 25–58 years; 43 males and 16 females) was collected and stained with the “MiniPOC CD4% Count Kit-Dry”. CD4+ count and percentage were then determined in triplicate by the CyFlow MiniPOC. In parallel, CD4 count was performed using mAbs and a CyFlow Counter, or by a dual platform system (from Beckman Coulter) based upon Cytomic FC500 (“Cytostat tetrachrome kit” for mAbs) and Coulter HmX Hematology Analyzer (for absolute cell count).

Results

The accuracy of CyFlow MiniPOC against Cytomic FC500 showed a correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.98 and 0.97 for CD4+ count and percentage, respectively. The accuracy of CyFlow MiniPOC against CyFlow Counter showed a CC of 0.99 and 0.99 for CD4 T cell count and percentage, respectively. CyFlow MiniPOC showed an excellent repeatability: CD4+ cell count and percentage were analyzed on two instruments, with an intra-assay precision below ±5% deviation. Finally, there was no carry-over contamination for samples at all CD4 values, regardless of their position in the sequence of analysis.

Conclusion

The cost-effective CyFlow MiniPOC produces rapid, reliable and accurate results that are fully comparable with those from highly expensive dual platform systems.     

Seeing It from Both Sides: Do Approaches to Involving Patients in Improving Their Safety Risk Damaging the Trust between Patients and Healthcare Professionals? An Interview Study

Objective

Encouraging patients to be more vigilant about their care challenges the traditional dynamics of patient-healthcare professional interactions. This study aimed to explore, from the perspectives of both patients and frontline healthcare staff, the potential consequences of patient-mediated intervention as a way of pushing safety improvement through the involvement of patients.

Design

Qualitative study, using purposive sampling and semi-structured interviews with patients, their relatives and healthcare professionals. Emergent themes were identified using grounded theory, with data coded using NVIVO 8.

Participants

16 patients, 4 relatives, (mean age (sd) 60 years (15); 12 female, 8 male) and 39 healthcare professionals, (9 pharmacists, 11 doctors, 12 nurses, 7 health care assistants).

Setting

Participants were sampled from general medical and surgical wards, taking acute and elective admissions, in two hospitals in north east England.

Results

Positive consequences were identified but some actions encouraged by current patient-mediated approaches elicited feelings of suspicion and mistrust. For example, patients felt speaking up might appear rude or disrespectful, were concerned about upsetting staff and worried that their care might be compromised. Staff, whilst apparently welcoming patient questions, appeared uncertain about patients’ motives for questioning and believed that patients who asked many questions and/or who wrote things down were preparing to complain. Behavioural implications were identified that could serve to exacerbate patient safety problems (e.g. staff avoiding contact with inquisitive patients or relatives; patients avoiding contact with unreceptive staff).

Conclusions

Approaches that aim to push improvement in patient safety through the involvement of patients could engender mistrust and create negative tensions in the patient-provider relationship. A more collaborative approach, that encourages patients and healthcare staff to work together, is needed. Future initiatives should aim to shift the current focus away from “checking up” on individual healthcare professionals to one that engages both parties in the common goal of enhancing safety.     

Incidence of Hospitalization for Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection amongst Children in Ontario,Canada: A Population-Based Study Using Validated Health Administrative Data

Importance

RSV is a common illness among young children that causes significant morbidity and health care costs.

Objective

Routinely collected health administrative data can be used to track disease incidence, explore risk factors and conduct health services research. Due to potential for misclassification bias, the accuracy of data-elements should be validated prior to use. The objectives of this study were to validate an algorithm to accurately identify pediatric cases of hospitalized respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) from within Ontario’s health administrative data, estimate annual incidence of hospitalization due to RSV and report the prevalence of major risk factors within hospitalized patients.

Study Design and Setting

A retrospective chart review was performed to establish a reference-standard cohort of children from the Ottawa region admitted to the Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario (CHEO) for RSV-related disease in 2010 and 2011. Chart review data was linked to Ontario’s administrative data and used to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of algorithms of RSV-related ICD-10 codes within provincial hospitalization and emergency department databases. Age- and sex-standardized incidence was calculated over time, with trends in incidence assessed using Poisson regression.

Results

From a total of 1411 admissions, chart review identified 327 children hospitalized for laboratory confirmed RSV-related disease. Following linkage to administrative data and restriction to first admissions, there were 289 RSV patients in the reference-standard cohort. The best algorithm, based on hospitalization data, resulted in sensitivity 97.9% (95%CI: 95.5–99.2%), specificity 99.6% (95%CI: 98.2–99.8%), PPV 96.9% (95%CI: 94.2–98.6%), NPV 99.4% (95%CI: 99.4–99.9%). Incidence of hospitalized RSV in Ontario from 2005–2012 was 10.2 per 1000 children under 1 year and 4.8 per 1000 children aged 1 to 3 years. During the surveillance period, there was no identifiable increasing or decreasing linear trend in the incidence of hospitalized RSV, hospital length of stay and PICU admission rates. Among the Ontario RSV cohort, 16.3% had one or more major risk factors, with a decreasing trend observed over time.

Conclusion

Children hospitalized for RSV-related disease can be accurately identified within population-based health administrative data. RSV is a major public health concern and incidence has not changed over time, suggesting a lack of progress in prevention.     

Plant-Plant-Microbe Mechanisms Involved in Soil-Borne Disease Suppression on a Maize and Pepper Intercropping System

Background

Intercropping systems could increase crop diversity and avoid vulnerability to biotic stresses. Most studies have shown that intercropping can provide relief to crops against wind-dispersed pathogens. However, there was limited data on how the practice of intercropping help crops against soil-borne Phytophthora disease.

Principal Findings

Compared to pepper monoculture, a large scale intercropping study of maize grown between pepper rows reduced disease levels of the soil-borne pepper Phytophthora blight. These reduced disease levels of Phytophthora in the intercropping system were correlated with the ability of maize plants to form a “root wall” that restricted the movement of Phytophthora capsici across rows. Experimentally, it was found that maize roots attracted the zoospores of P. capsici and then inhibited their growth. When maize plants were grown in close proximity to each other, the roots produced and secreted larger quantities of 2,4-dihydroxy-7-methoxy-2H-1,4-benzoxazin-3(4H)-one (DIMBOA) and 6-methoxy-2-benzoxazolinone (MBOA). Furthermore, MBOA, benzothiazole (BZO), and 2-(methylthio)-benzothiazole (MBZO) were identified in root exudates of maize and showed antimicrobial activity against P. capsici.

Conclusions

Maize could form a “root wall” to restrict the spread of P. capsici across rows in maize and pepper intercropping systems. Antimicrobe compounds secreted by maize root were one of the factors that resulted in the inhibition of P. capsici. These results provide new insights into plant-plant-microbe mechanisms involved in intercropping systems.     

Higher Education Moderates the Effect of T2 Lesion Load and Third Ventricle Width on Cognition in Multiple Sclerosis

Background

Previous work suggested greater intellectual enrichment might moderate the negative impact of brain atrophy on cognition. This awaits confirmation in independent cohorts including investigation of the role of T2-lesion load (T2-LL), which is another important determinant of cognition in MS. We here thus aimed to test this cognitive reserve hypothesis by investigating whether educational attainment (EA) moderates the negative effects of both brain atrophy and T2-LL on cognitive function in a large sample of MS patients.

Methods

137 patients participated in the study. Cognition was assessed by the “Brief Repeatable Battery of Neuropsychological Tests.” T2-LL, normalized brain volume (global volume loss) and third ventricle width (regional volume loss) served as MRI markers.

Results

Both T2-LL and atrophy predicted worse cognition, with a stronger effect of T2-LL. Higher EA (as assessed by years of education) also predicted better cognition. Interactions showed that the negative effects of T2-LL and regional brain atrophy were moderated by EA.

Conclusions

In a cohort with different stages of MS, higher EA attenuated the negative effects of white matter lesion burden and third ventricle width (suggestive of thalamic atrophy) on cognitive performance. Actively enhancing cognitive reserve might thus be a means to reduce or prevent cognitive problems in MS in parallel to disease modifying drugs.     

The Personalized Advantage Index: Translating Research on Prediction into Individualized Treatment Recommendations. A Demonstration

Background

Advances in personalized medicine require the identification of variables that predict differential response to treatments as well as the development and refinement of methods to transform predictive information into actionable recommendations.

Objective

To illustrate and test a new method for integrating predictive information to aid in treatment selection, using data from a randomized treatment comparison.

Method

Data from a trial of antidepressant medications (N = 104) versus cognitive behavioral therapy (N = 50) for Major Depressive Disorder were used to produce predictions of post-treatment scores on the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HRSD) in each of the two treatments for each of the 154 patients. The patient''s own data were not used in the models that yielded these predictions. Five pre-randomization variables that predicted differential response (marital status, employment status, life events, comorbid personality disorder, and prior medication trials) were included in regression models, permitting the calculation of each patient''s Personalized Advantage Index (PAI), in HRSD units.

Results

For 60% of the sample a clinically meaningful advantage (PAI≥3) was predicted for one of the treatments, relative to the other. When these patients were divided into those randomly assigned to their “Optimal” treatment versus those assigned to their “Non-optimal” treatment, outcomes in the former group were superior (d = 0.58, 95% CI .17—1.01).

Conclusions

This approach to treatment selection, implemented in the context of two equally effective treatments, yielded effects that, if obtained prospectively, would rival those routinely observed in comparisons of active versus control treatments.     

A New Statistic to Evaluate Imputation Reliability

Background

As the amount of data from genome wide association studies grows dramatically, many interesting scientific questions require imputation to combine or expand datasets. However, there are two situations for which imputation has been problematic: (1) polymorphisms with low minor allele frequency (MAF), and (2) datasets where subjects are genotyped on different platforms. Traditional measures of imputation cannot effectively address these problems.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We introduce a new statistic, the imputation quality score (IQS). In order to differentiate between well-imputed and poorly-imputed single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), IQS adjusts the concordance between imputed and genotyped SNPs for chance. We first evaluated IQS in relation to minor allele frequency. Using a sample of subjects genotyped on the Illumina 1 M array, we extracted those SNPs that were also on the Illumina 550 K array and imputed them to the full set of the 1 M SNPs. As expected, the average IQS value drops dramatically with a decrease in minor allele frequency, indicating that IQS appropriately adjusts for minor allele frequency. We then evaluated whether IQS can filter poorly-imputed SNPs in situations where cases and controls are genotyped on different platforms. Randomly dividing the data into “cases” and “controls”, we extracted the Illumina 550 K SNPs from the cases and imputed the remaining Illumina 1 M SNPs. The initial Q-Q plot for the test of association between cases and controls was grossly distorted (λ = 1.15) and had 4016 false positives, reflecting imputation error. After filtering out SNPs with IQS<0.9, the Q-Q plot was acceptable and there were no longer false positives. We then evaluated the robustness of IQS computed independently on the two halves of the data. In both European Americans and African Americans the correlation was >0.99 demonstrating that a database of IQS values from common imputations could be used as an effective filter to combine data genotyped on different platforms.

Conclusions/Significance

IQS effectively differentiates well-imputed and poorly-imputed SNPs. It is particularly useful for SNPs with low minor allele frequency and when datasets are genotyped on different platforms.     

Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Validation Studies on a Diabetes Case Definition from Health Administrative Records

Objectives

Health administrative data are frequently used for diabetes surveillance. We aimed to determine the sensitivity and specificity of a commonly-used diabetes case definition (two physician claims or one hospital discharge abstract record within a two-year period) and their potential effect on prevalence estimation.

Methods

Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, we searched Medline (from 1950) and Embase (from 1980) databases for validation studies through August 2012 (keywords: “diabetes mellitus”; “administrative databases”; “validation studies”). Reviewers abstracted data with standardized forms and assessed quality using Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) criteria. A generalized linear model approach to random-effects bivariate regression meta-analysis was used to pool sensitivity and specificity estimates. We applied correction factors derived from pooled sensitivity and specificity estimates to prevalence estimates from national surveillance reports and projected prevalence estimates over 10 years (to 2018).

Results

The search strategy identified 1423 abstracts among which 11 studies were deemed relevant and reviewed; 6 of these reported sensitivity and specificity allowing pooling in a meta-analysis. Compared to surveys or medical records, sensitivity was 82.3% (95%CI 75.8, 87.4) and specificity was 97.9% (95%CI 96.5, 98.8). The diabetes case definition underestimated prevalence when it was ≤10.6% and overestimated prevalence otherwise.

Conclusion

The diabetes case definition examined misses up to one fifth of diabetes cases and wrongly identifies diabetes in approximately 2% of the population. This may be sufficiently sensitive and specific for surveillance purposes, in particular monitoring prevalence trends. Applying correction factors to adjust prevalence estimates from this definition may be helpful to increase accuracy of estimates.