Under what circumstances can the forest sector contribute to 2050 climate change mitigation targets? A study from forest ecosystems to landfill methane emissions for the province of Quebec,Canada

Meeting climate change mitigation targets by 2050, as outlined in international pledges, involves determining optimal strategies for forest management, wood supply, the substitution of greenhouse gas-intensive materials and energy sources, and wood product disposal. Our study quantified the cumulative mitigation potential by 2050 of the forest sector in the province of Quebec, Canada, using several alternative strategies and assessed under what circumstances the sector could contribute to the targets. We used the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector to project ecosystems emissions and sequestration of seven alternative and one baseline (business-as-usual [BaU]) forest management scenarios over the 2018–2050 period. Three baskets of wood products were used in a Harvested Wood Products model to predict wood product emissions. The mitigation potential was determined by comparing the cumulative CO₂e budget of each alternative scenario to the BaU. The proportion of methane emissions from landfills (RCH₄%) and the required displacement factor (RDF) to achieve mitigation benefits were assessed both independently and jointly. The fastest and most efficient way to improve mitigation outcomes of the forest sector of Quebec is to reduce end-of-life methane emissions from wood products. By reducing methane emissions, the RDF for achieving mitigation benefits through intensification strategies can be reduced from 1.2–2.3 to 0–0.9 tC/tC, thus reaching the current provincial mean DF threshold (0.9). Both a reduction and an increase in the harvested volume have the potential to provide mitigation benefits with adequate RCH₄% and RDF. Increased carbon sequestration in ecosystems, innovations in long-lived wood products, and optimal substitution in markets offer potential avenues for the forest sector to contribute to mitigation benefits but are subject to significant uncertainties. Methane emission reduction at the end of wood product service life is emerging as a valuable approach to enhance mitigation benefits of the forest sector.     

Projection of the future EU forest CO2 sink as affected by recent bioenergy policies using two advanced forest management models

Forests of the European Union (EU) have been intensively managed for decades, and they have formed a significant sink for carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere over the past 50 years. The reasons for this behavior are multiple, among them are: forest aging, area expansion, increasing plant productivity due to environmental changes of many kinds, and, most importantly, the growth rates of European forest having been higher than harvest rates. EU countries have agreed to reduce total emissions of GHG by 20% in 2020 compared to 1990, excluding the forest sink. A relevant question for climate policy is: how long will the current sink of EU forests be maintained in the near future? And could it be affected by other mitigation measures such as bioenergy? In this article we assess tradeoffs of bioenergy use and carbon sequestration at large scale and describe results of the comparison of two advanced forest management models that are used to project CO₂ emissions and removals from EU forests until 2030. EFISCEN, a detailed statistical matrix model and G4M, a geographically explicit economic forestry model, use scenarios of future harvest rates and forest growth information to estimate the future carbon balance of forest biomass. Two scenarios were assessed: the EU baseline scenario and the EU reference scenario (including additional bioenergy and climate policies). Our projections suggest a significant decline of the sink until 2030 in the baseline scenario of about 25–40% (or 65–125 Mt CO₂) compared to the models’ 2010 estimate. Including additional bioenergy targets of EU member states has an effect on the development of this sink, which is not accounted in the EU emission reduction target. A sensitivity analysis was performed on the role of future wood demand and proved the importance of this driver for the future sink development.     

The climate change mitigation effect of bioenergy from sustainably managed forests in Central Europe

We compare sustainably managed with unmanaged forests in terms of their contribution to climate change mitigation based on published data. For sustainably managed forests, accounting of carbon (C) storage based on ecosystem biomass and products as required by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is not sufficient to quantify their contribution to climate change mitigation. The ultimate value of biomass is its use for biomaterials and bioenergy. Taking Germany as an example, we show that the average removals of wood from managed forests are higher than stated by official reports, ranging between 56 and 86 mill. m³ year^?1 due to the unrecorded harvest of firewood. We find that removals from one hectare can substitute 0.87 m³ ha^?1 year^?1 of diesel, or 7.4 MWh ha^?1 year^?1, taking into account the unrecorded firewood, the use of fuel for harvesting and processing, and the efficiency of energy conversion. Energy substitution ranges between 1.9 and 2.2 t CO_{2 equiv.} ha^?1 year^?1 depending on the type of fossil fuel production. Including bioenergy and carbon storage, the total mitigation effect of managed forest ranges between 3.2 and 3.5 t CO_{2 equiv.} ha^?1 year^?1. This is more than previously reported because of the full accounting of bioenergy. Unmanaged nature conservation forests contribute via C storage only about 0.37 t CO_{2 equiv.}  ha^?1 year^?1 to climate change mitigation. There is no fossil fuel substitution. Therefore, taking forests out of management reduces climate change mitigation benefits substantially. There should be a mitigation cost for taking forest out of management in Central Europe. Since the energy sector is rewarded for the climate benefits of bioenergy, and not the forest sector, we propose that a CO₂ tax is used to award the contribution of forest management to fossil fuel substitution and climate change mitigation. This would stimulate the production of wood for products and energy substitution.     

Indirect carbon dioxide emissions from producing bioenergy from forest harvest residues

Forest harvest residues are important raw materials for bioenergy in regions practicing forestry. Removing these residues from a harvest site reduces the carbon stock of the forest compared with conventional stem‐only harvest because less litter in left on the site. The indirect carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission from producing bioenergy occur when carbon in the logging residues is emitted into the atmosphere at once through combustion, instead of being released little by little as a result of decomposition at the harvest sites. In this study (1) we introduce an approach to calculate this indirect emission from using logging residues for bioenergy production, and (2) estimate this emission at a typical target of harvest residue removal, i.e. boreal Norway spruce forest in Finland. The removal of stumps caused a larger indirect emission per unit of energy produced than the removal of branches because of a lower decomposition rate of the stumps. The indirect emission per unit of energy produced decreased with time since starting to collect the harvest residues as a result of decomposition at older harvest sites. During the 100 years of conducting this practice, the indirect emission from average‐sized branches (diameter 2 cm) decreased from 340 to 70 kg CO₂ eq. MWh^?1 and that from stumps (diameter 26 cm) from 340 to 160 kg CO₂ eq. MWh^?1. These emissions are an order of magnitude larger than the other emissions (collecting, transporting, etc.) from the bioenergy production chain. When the bioenergy production was started, the total emissions were comparable to fossil fuels. The practice had to be carried out for 22 (stumps) or four (branches) years until the total emissions dropped below the emissions of natural gas. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for land‐use‐related indirect emissions to correctly estimate the efficiency of bioenergy in reducing CO₂ emission into the atmosphere.     

Effects of harvesting on spatial and temporal diversity of carbon stocks in a boreal forest landscape

Carbon stocks in managed forests of Ontario, Canada, and in harvested wood products originated from these forests were estimated for 2010–2100. Simulations included four future forest harvesting scenarios based on historical harvesting levels (low, average, high, and maximum available) and a no‐harvest scenario. In four harvesting scenarios, forest carbon stocks in Ontario's managed forest were estimated to range from 6202 to 6227 Mt C (millions of tons of carbon) in 2010, and from 6121 to 6428 Mt C by 2100. Inclusion of carbon stored in harvested wood products in use and in landfills changed the projected range in 2100 to 6710–6742 Mt C. For the no‐harvest scenario, forest carbon stocks were projected to change from 6246 Mt C in 2010 to 6680 Mt C in 2100. Spatial variation in projected forest carbon stocks was strongly related to changes in forest age (r = 0.603), but had weak correlation with harvesting rates. For all managed forests in Ontario combined, projected carbon stocks in combined forest and harvested wood products converged to within 2% difference by 2100. The results suggest that harvesting in the boreal forest, if applied within limits of sustainable forest management, will eventually have a relatively small effect on long‐term combined forest and wood products carbon stocks. However, there was a large time lag to approach carbon equality, with more than 90 years with a net reduction in stored carbon in harvested forests plus wood products compared to nonharvested boreal forest which also has low rates of natural disturbance. The eventual near equivalency of carbon stocks in nonharvested forest and forest that is harvested and protected from natural disturbance reflects both the accumulation of carbon in harvested wood products and the relatively young age at which boreal forest stands undergo natural succession in the absence of disturbance.     

Environmental Assessment of Wood‐Based Biofuel Production and Consumption Scenarios in Norway

In Norway, the boreal forest offers a considerable resource base, and emerging technologies may soon make it commercially viable to convert these resources into low‐carbon biofuels. Decision makers are required to make informed decisions about the environmental implications of wood biofuels today that will affect the medium‐ and long‐term development of a wood‐based biofuels industry in Norway. We first assess the national forest‐derived resource base for use in biofuel production. A set of biomass conversion technologies is then chosen and evaluated for scenarios addressing biofuel production and consumption by select industry sectors. We then apply an environmentally extended, mixed‐unit, two‐region input?output model to quantify the global warming mitigation and fossil fuel displacement potentials of two biofuel production and consumption scenarios in Norway up to 2050. We find that a growing resource base, when used to produce advanced biofuels, results in cumulative global warming mitigation potentials of between 58 and 83 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents avoided (Mt‐CO₂‐eq.‐avoided) in Norway, depending on the biofuel scenario. In recent years, however, the domestic pulp and paper industry—due to increasing exposure to international competition, capacity reductions, and increasing production costs—has been in decline. In the face of a declining domestic pulp and paper industry, imported pulp and paper products are required to maintain the demand for these goods and thus the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the exporting region embodied in Norway's pulp and paper imports reduce the systemwide benefit in terms of avoided greenhouse gas emissions by 27%.     

Estimating product and energy substitution benefits in national‐scale mitigation analyses for Canada

The potential of forests and the forest sector to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is widely recognized, but challenging to quantify at a national scale. Mitigation benefits through the use of forest products are affected by product life cycles, which determine the duration of carbon storage in wood products and substitution benefits where emissions are avoided using wood products instead of other emissions‐intensive building products and energy fuels. Here we determined displacement factors for wood substitution in the built environment and bioenergy at the national level in Canada. For solid wood products, we compiled a basket of end‐use products and determined the reduction in emissions for two functionally equivalent products: a more wood‐intensive product vs. a less wood‐intensive one. Avoided emissions for end‐use products basket were weighted by Canadian consumption statistics to reflect national wood uses, and avoided emissions were further partitioned into displacement factors for sawnwood and panels. We also examined two bioenergy feedstock scenarios (constant supply and constrained supply) to estimate displacement factors for bioenergy using an optimized selection of bioenergy facilities which maximized avoided emissions from fossil fuels. Results demonstrated that the average displacement factors were found to be similar: product displacement factors were 0.54 tC displaced per tC of used for sawnwood and 0.45 tC tC^?1 for panels; energy displacement factors for the two feedstock scenarios were 0.47 tC tC^?1 for the constant supply and 0.89 tC tC^?1 for the constrained supply. However, there was a wide range of substitution impacts. The greatest avoided emissions occurred when wood was substituted for steel and concrete in buildings, and when bioenergy from heat facilities and/or combined heat and power facilities was substituted for energy from high‐emissions fossil fuels. We conclude that (1) national‐level substitution benefits need to be considered within a systems perspective on climate change mitigation to avoid the development of policies that deliver no net benefits to the atmosphere, (2) the use of long‐lived wood products in buildings to displace steel and concrete reduces GHG emissions, (3) the greatest bioenergy substitution benefits are achieved using a mix of facility types and capacities to displace emissions‐intensive fossil fuels.     

Simulating the effects of harvest and biofuel production on the forest system carbon balance of the Midwest,USA

Forests of the Midwestern United States are an important source of fiber for the wood and paper products industries. Scientists, land managers, and policy makers are interested in using woody biomass and/or harvest residue for biofuel feedstocks. However, the effects of increased biomass removal for biofuel production on forest production and forest system carbon balance remain uncertain. We modeled the carbon (C) cycle of the forest system by dividing it into two distinct components: (1) biological (net ecosystem production, net primary production, autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration, vegetation, and soil C content) and (2) industrial (harvest operations and transportation, production, use, and disposal of major wood products including biofuel and associated C emissions). We modeled available woody biomass feedstock and whole‐system carbon balance of 220 000 km² of temperate forests in the Upper Midwest, USA by coupling an ecosystem process model to a collection of greenhouse gas life‐cycle inventory models and simulating seven forest harvest scenarios in the biological ecosystem and three biofuel production scenarios in the industrial system for 50 years. The forest system was a carbon sink (118 g C m^?2 yr^?1) under current management practices and forest product production rates. However, the system became a C source when harvest area was doubled and biofuel production replaced traditional forest products. Total carbon stores in the vegetation and soil increased by 5–10% under low‐intensity management scenarios and current management, but decreased up to 3% under high‐intensity harvest regimes. Increasing harvest residue removal during harvest had more modest effects on forest system C balance and total biomass removal than increasing the rate of clear‐cut harvests or area harvested. Net forest system C balance was significantly, and negatively correlated (R² = 0.67) with biomass harvested, illustrating the trade‐offs between increased C uptake by forests and utilization of woody biomass for biofuel feedstock.     

The Greenhouse Gas Footprint of China's Food System: An Analysis of Recent Trends and Future Scenarios

Food chain systems (FCSs), which begin in agricultural production and end in consumption and waste disposal, play a significant role in China's rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This article uses scenario analysis to show China's potential trajectories to a low‐carbon FCS. Between 1996 and 2010, the GHG footprint of China's FCSs increased from 1,308 to 1,618 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO₂‐eq), although the emissions intensity of all food categories, except for aquatic food, recorded steep declines. We project three scenarios to 2050 based on historical trends and plausible shifts in policies and environmental conditions: reference scenario; technology improvement scenario; and low GHG emissions scenario. The reference scenario is based on existing trends and exhibits a large growth in GHG emissions, increasing from 1,585 Mt CO₂‐eq in 2010 to 2,505 Mt CO₂‐eq in 2050. In the technology improvement scenario, emissions growth is driven by rising food demand, but that growth will be counterbalanced by gains in agricultural technology, causing GHG emissions to fall to 1,413 Mt CO₂‐eq by 2050. Combining technology improvement with the shift to healthier dietary patterns, GHG emissions in the low GHG emissions scenario will decline to 946 Mt CO₂‐eq in 2050, a drop of 41.5% compared with the level in 2010. We argue that these are realistic projections and are indeed indicative of China's overall strategy for low‐carbon development. Improving agricultural technology and shifting to a more balanced diet could significantly reduce the GHG footprint of China's FCSs. Furthermore, the transition to a low‐carbon FCS has potential cobenefits for land sustainability and public health.     

Global warming potentials of stemwood used for energy and materials in Southern Finland: differentiation of impacts based on type of harvest and product lifetime

Wood harvesting in boreal forests typically consists of sequential harvesting operations within a rotation: a few thinnings and a final felling. The aim of this paper is to model differentiated relative global warming potential (GWP) coefficients for stemwood use from different thinnings and final fellings, and correction factors for long‐lived wood products, potentially applicable in life cycle assessment studies. All thinnings and final fellings influence the development of forest carbon stocks. The climate impact of a single harvesting operation is generated in comparison with no harvesting, thus encountering a methodological problem on how to handle the subsequent operations. The dynamic forest stand simulator MOTTI was applied in the modelling of evolution of forest carbon stocks at landscape level in Southern Finland. The landscape‐level approach for climate impact assessment gave results similar to some stand‐level approaches presented in previous literature that included the same forest C pools and also studied the impacts relative to the no‐harvest situation. The climate impacts of stemwood use decreased over time. For energy use, the impacts were higher or similar in the short term and 0–50% lower in the midterm in comparison with an identical amount of fossil CO₂. The impacts were to some extent (approximately 20–40%) lower for wood from intermediate thinnings than for wood from final fellings or first thinnings. However, the study reveals that product lifetime has higher relative influence on the climate impacts of wood‐based value chains than whether the stemwood originates from thinnings or final fellings. Although the evolution of future C stocks in unmanaged boreal forests is uncertain, a sensitivity analysis suggests that landscape‐level model results for climate impacts would not be sensitive to the assumptions made on the future evolution of C stocks in unmanaged forest. Energy use of boreal stemwood seems to be far from climate neutral.     

Old‐growth forests,carbon and climate change: Functions and management for tall open‐forests in two hotspots of temperate Australia

Abstract

The prognosis and utility under climate change are presented for two old‐growth, temperate forests in Australia, from ecological and carbon accounting perspectives. The tall open‐forests (TOFs) of south‐western Australia (SWA) are within Australia’s global biodiversity hotspot. The forest management and timber usage from the carbon‐dense old‐growth TOFs of Tasmania (TAS) have a high carbon efflux, rendering it a carbon hotspot. Under climate change the warmer, dryer climate in both areas will decrease carbon stocks directly; and indirectly through changes towards dryer forest types and through positive feedback. Near 2100, climate change will decrease soil organic carbon (SOC) significantly, e.g. by ～30% for SWA and at least 2% for TAS. The emissions from the next 20 years of logging old‐growth TOF in TAS, and conversion to harvesting cycles, will conservatively reach 66(±33) Mt‐CO₂‐equivalents in the long‐term – bolstering greenhouse gas emissions. Similar emissions will arise from rainforest SOC in TAS due to climate change. Careful management of old‐growth TOFs in these two hotspots, to help reduce carbon emissions and change in biodiversity, entails adopting approaches to forest, wood product and fire management which conserve old‐growth characteristics in forest stands. Plantation forestry on long‐cleared land and well‐targeted prescribed burning supplement effective carbon management.

Abbreviations: C, carbon; CBS, clearfell, burn and sow; CO₂‐e, CO₂ equivalents; CWD, coarse woody debris; DOC, dissolved organic carbon; GHG, greenhouse gas; Mt, megatonnes; SOC, soil organic carbon; SWA, south‐western Australia; SWAFR, Southwest Australian Floristic Region; TAS, Tasmania; TOF, tall open‐forest; t‐C ha^?1 yr^?1, tonnes of carbon per hectare per year     

Effects of forest management on the carbon dioxide emissions of wood energy in integrated production of timber and energy biomass

The aim of this work was to study the sensitivity of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from wood energy to different forest management regimes when aiming at an integrated production of timber and energy biomass. For this purpose, the production of timber and energy biomass in Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst] and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands was simulated using an ecosystem model (SIMA) on sites of varying fertility under different management regimes, including various thinning and fertilization treatments over a fixed simulation period of 80 years. The simulations included timber (sawlogs, pulp), energy biomass (small‐sized stem wood) and/or logging residues (top part of stem, branches and needles) from first thinning, and logging residues and stumps from final felling for energy production. In this context, a life cycle analysis/emission calculation tool was used to assess the CO₂ emissions per unit of energy (kg CO₂ MWh^?1) which was produced based on the use of wood energy. The energy balance (GJ ha^?1) of the supply chain was also calculated. The evaluation of CO₂ emissions and energy balance of the supply chain considered the whole forest bioenergy production chain, representing all operations needed to grow and harvest biomass and transport it to a power plant for energy production. Fertilization and high precommercial stand density clearly increased stem wood production (i.e. sawlogs, pulp and small‐sized stem wood), but also the amount of logging residues, stump wood and roots for energy use. Similarly, the lowest CO₂ emissions per unit of energy were obtained, regardless of tree species and site fertility, when applying extremely or very dense precommercial stand density, as well as fertilization three times during the rotation. For Norway spruce such management also provided a high energy balance (GJ ha^?1). On the other hand, the highest energy balance for Scots pine was obtained concurrently with extremely dense precommercial stands without fertilization on the medium‐fertility site, while on the low‐fertility site fertilization three times during the rotation was needed to attain this balance. Thus, clear differences existed between species and sites. In general, the forest bioenergy supply chain seemed to be effective; i.e. the fossil fuel energy consumption varied between 2.2% and 2.8% of the energy produced based on the forest biomass. To conclude, the primary energy use and CO₂ emissions related to the forest operations, including the production and application of fertilizer, were small in relation to the increased potential of energy biomass.     

Carbon sequestration following afforestation of agricultural soils: comparing oak/beech forest to short-rotation poplar coppice combining a process and a carbon accounting model

To compare the benefits for carbon (C) sequestration of afforestation with a multifunctional oak–beech forest vs. a poplar short‐rotation coppice (SRC), model simulations were run through a serial linkage of a mechanistic model and an accounting model. The process model SECRETS (Stand to Ecosystem CaRbon and EvapoTranspiration Simulator) was used to predict growth, C allocation and soil C. The output from SECRETS was used as an input for the C accounting model GORCAM (Graz Oak Ridge Carbon Accounting Model) yielding data on C sequestration in wood products, substitution of wood fuel for fossil fuel and total CO₂ emission reduction. Such C accounting based on a process model enables a more realistic calculation of forest growth, litter decomposition and soil processes. Moreover, it allows simulating the influence of climate change on the C budget. Net primary production of an oak–beech forest is low, a stable 2.5 t C ha^?1 yr^?1 after 150 years, compared to 6.2 t C ha^?1 yr^?1 for a SRC plantation. But while the yield from the SRC poplar is used as fuel and thus returns quickly to the atmosphere, the yield from the oak‐beech forest is used in long‐lasting wood products. The total C pool in the mixed forest (living biomass, wood products and soil) after 150 years amounts to 324 t C ha^?1 compared to 162 in the poplar coppice. However, when account is taken of the energy substitution, coppice culture reduces emissions with 24.3–29.3 t CO₂ ha^?1 yr^?1 while the mixed forest reduces only 6.2–7.1 t CO₂ ha^?1 yr^?1. These results demonstrate the added value of combining detailed process models with C‐accounting models to improve the predictive capacity of model simulations.     

Climate change mitigation potential of local use of harvest residues for bioenergy in Canada

We estimate the mitigation potential of local use of bioenergy from harvest residues for the 2.3 × 10⁶ km² (232 Mha) of Canada's managed forests from 2017 to 2050 using three models: Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM‐CFS3), a harvested wood products (HWP) model that estimates bioenergy emissions, and a model of emission substitution benefits from the use of bioenergy. We compare the use of harvest residues for local heat and electricity production relative to a base case scenario and estimate the climate change mitigation potential at the forest management unit level. Results demonstrate large differences between and within provinces and territories across Canada. We identify regions with increasing benefits to the atmosphere for many decades into the future and regions where no net benefit would occur over the 33‐year study horizon. The cumulative mitigation potential for regions with positive mitigation was predicted to be 429 Tg CO₂e in 2050, with 7.1 TgC yr ^?1 of harvest residues producing bioenergy that met 3.1% of the heat demand and 2.9% of the electricity demand for 32.1 million people living within these regions. Our results show that regions with positive mitigation produced bioenergy, mainly from combined heat and power facilities, with emissions intensities that ranged from roughly 90 to 500 kg CO₂e MWh^?1. Roughly 40% of the total captured harvest residue was associated with regions that were predicted to have a negative cumulative mitigation potential in 2050 of ?152 Tg CO₂e. We conclude that the capture of harvest residues to produce local bioenergy can reduce GHG emissions in populated regions where bioenergy, mainly from combined heat and power facilities, offsets fossil fuel sources (fuel oil, coal and petcoke, and natural gas).     

Life Cycle–based Assessment of Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Almond Production,Part II: Uncertainty Analysis through Sensitivity Analysis and Scenario Testing

This is the second part of a two‐article series examining California almond production. The part I article describes development of the analytical framework and life cycle–based model and presents typical energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for California almonds. This part II article builds on this by exploring uncertainty in the life cycle model through sensitivity and scenario analysis, and by examining temporary carbon storage in the orchard. Sensitivity analysis shows life cycle GHG emissions are most affected by biomass fate and utilization, followed by nitrous oxide emissions rates from orchard soils. Model sensitivity for net energy consumption is highest for irrigation system parameters, followed by biomass fate and utilization. Scenario analysis shows utilization of orchard biomass for electricity production has the greatest potential effect, assuming displacement methods are used for co‐product allocation. Results of the scenario analysis show that 1 kilogram (kg) of almond kernel and associated co‐products are estimated to cause between ?3.12 to 2.67 kg carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂‐eq) emissions and consume between 27.6 to 52.5 megajoules (MJ) of energy. Co‐product displacement credits lead to avoided emissions of between ?1.33 to 2.45 kg CO₂‐eq and between ?0.08 to 13.7 MJ of avoided energy use, leading to net results of ?1.39 to 3.99 kg CO₂‐eq and 15.3 to 52.6 MJ per kg kernel (net results are calculated by subtracting co‐product credits from the results for almonds and co‐products). Temporary carbon storage in orchard biomass and soils is accounted for by using alternative global warming characterization factors and leads to a 14% to 18% reduction in CO₂‐eq emissions. Future studies of orchards and other perennial cropping systems should likely consider temporary carbon storage.     

Linkage of MIKE SHE to Wetland-DNDC for carbon budgeting and anaerobic biogeochemistry simulation

This study reports the linkage between MIKE SHE and Wetland-DNDC for carbon dynamics and greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions simulation in forested wetland.Wetland-DNDC was modified by parameterizing management measures, refining anaerobic biogeochemical processes, and was linked to the hydrological model – MIKE SHE. As a preliminary application, we simulated the effect of water table position and forest management practices on GHGs emissions and carbon dynamics to test the capabilities of the models for simulating seasonal and long-term carbon budget. Simulation results show that water table changes had a remarkable effect on GHGs fluxes. Anaerobic conditions in forested wetland soils reduce organic matter decomposition and stimulate CH₄ production. Decrease in the water table from the wetland surface decreases methane flux, while CO₂ emission was lower with a rise in the water table. When there is a drop in water availability, wetlands can become a net source of atmospheric CO₂ as photosynthesis is decreased and respiration loss enhanced. Forest management activities i.e. harvest, fertilization and reforestation practices were parameterized in the model. We predicted carbon fluxes and stores on a pine forest under different forest management scenarios during 160 years. Results show that average long-term carbon storage in ecosystem pools increased with increasing rotation length; Soil carbon showed only minor, long-term responses to harvesting events. In contrast, carbon sequestered in tree biomass and litter fluctuated widely, in concert with the harvest cycle. Application of nitrogen fertilizer increased average carbon storage in all ecosystem pools and wood products. We presented the linkage of MIKE SHE and Wetland-DNDC as a way to use of simulation modeling tools for assessing GHGs mitigation strategies, carbon budgeting and forest management.     

Wood CO2 efflux in a primary tropical rain forest

The balance between photosynthesis and plant respiration in tropical forests may substantially affect the global carbon cycle. Woody tissue CO₂ efflux is a major component of total plant respiration, but estimates of ecosystem‐scale rates are uncertain because of poor sampling in the upper canopy and across landscapes. To overcome these problems, we used a portable scaffolding tower to measure woody tissue CO₂ efflux from ground level to the canopy top across a range of sites of varying slope and soil phosphorus content in a primary tropical rain forest in Costa Rica. The objectives of this study were to: (1) determine whether to use surface area, volume, or biomass for modeling and extrapolating wood CO₂ efflux, (2) determine if wood CO₂ efflux varied seasonally, (3) identify if wood CO₂ efflux varied by functional group, height in canopy, soil fertility, or slope, and (4) extrapolate wood CO₂ efflux to the forest. CO₂ efflux from small diameter woody tissue (<10 cm) was related to surface area, while CO₂ efflux from stems >10 cm was related to both surface area and volume. Wood CO₂ efflux showed no evidence of seasonality over 2 years. CO₂ efflux per unit wood surface area at 25° (F_A) was highest for the N‐fixing dominant tree species Pentaclethra macroloba, followed by other tree species, lianas, then palms. Small diameter F_A increased steeply with increasing height, and large diameter F_A increased with diameter. Soil phosphorus and slope had slight, but complex effects on F_A. Wood CO₂ efflux per unit ground area was 1.34±0.36 μmol m^?2 s^?1, or 508±135 g C m^?2 yr^?1. Small diameter wood, only 15% of total woody biomass, accounted for 70% of total woody tissue CO₂ efflux from the forest; while lianas, only 3% of total woody biomass, contributed one‐fourth of the total wood CO₂ efflux.     

Modelling carbon stocks and fluxes in the wood product sector: a comparative review

In addition to forest ecosystems, wood products are carbon pools that can be strategically managed to mitigate climate change. Wood product models (WPMs) simulating the carbon balance of wood production, use and end of life can complement forest growth models to evaluate the mitigation potential of the forest sector as a whole. WPMs can be used to compare scenarios of product use and explore mitigation strategies. A considerable number of WPMs have been developed in the last three decades, but there is no review available analysing their functionality and performance. This study analyses and compares 41 WPMs. One surprising initial result was that we discovered the erroneous implementation of a few concepts and assumptions in some of the models. We further described and compared the models using six model characteristics (bucking allocation, industrial processes, carbon pools, product removal, recycling and substitution effects) and three model‐use characteristics (system boundaries, model initialization and evaluation of results). Using a set of indicators based on the model characteristics, we classified models using a hierarchical clustering technique and differentiated them according to their increasing degrees of complexity and varying levels of user support. For purposes of simulating carbon stock in wood products, models with a simple structure may be sufficient, but to compare climate change mitigation options, complex models are needed. The number of models has increased substantially over the last ten years, introducing more diversity and accuracy. Calculation of substitution effects and recycling has also become more prominent. However, the lack of data is still an important constraint for a more realistic estimation of carbon stocks and fluxes. Therefore, if the sector wants to demonstrate the environmental quality of its products, it should make it a priority to provide reliable life cycle inventory data, particularly regarding aspects of time and location.     

Traits mediate drought effects on wood carbon fluxes

CO₂ fluxes from wood decomposition represent an important source of carbon from forest ecosystems to the atmosphere, which are determined by both wood traits and climate influencing the metabolic rates of decomposers. Previous studies have quantified the effects of moisture and temperature on wood decomposition, but these effects were not separated from the potential influence of wood traits. Indeed, it is not well understood how traits and climate interact to influence wood CO₂ fluxes. Here, we examined the responses of CO₂ fluxes from dead wood with different traits (angiosperm and gymnosperm) to 0%, 35%, and 70% rainfall reduction across seasonal temperature gradients. Our results showed that drought significantly decreased wood CO₂ fluxes, but its effects varied with both taxonomical group and drought intensity. Drought‐induced reduction in wood CO₂ fluxes was larger in angiosperms than gymnosperms for the 35% rainfall reduction treatment, but there was no significant difference between these groups for the 70% reduction treatment. This is because wood nitrogen density and carbon quality were significantly higher in angiosperms than gymnosperms, yielding a higher moisture sensitivity of wood decomposition. These findings were demonstrated by a significant positive interaction effect between wood nitrogen and moisture on CO₂ fluxes in a structural equation model. Additionally, we ascertained that a constant temperature sensitivity of CO₂ fluxes was independent of wood traits and consistent with previous estimates for extracellular enzyme kinetics. Our results highlight the key role of wood traits in regulating drought responses of wood carbon fluxes. Given that both climate and forest management might extensively modify taxonomic compositions in the future, it is critical for carbon cycle models to account for such interactions between wood traits and climate in driving dynamics of wood decomposition.     

Tree ring responses to elevated CO2 and increased N deposition in Picea abies

Four- to seven-year-old spruce trees (Picea abies) were exposed to three CO₂ concentrations (280, 420 and 560 cm³ m^?3) and three rates of wet N deposition (0, 30 and 90 kg ha^?1 year^?1) for 3 years in a simulated montane forest climate. Six trees from each of six clones were grown in competition in each of nine 100 × 70 × 36 cm model ecosystems with nutrient-poor natural forest soil. Stem dises were analysed using X-ray densitometry. The radial stem increment was not affected by [CO₂] but increased with increasing rates of N deposition. Wood density was increased by [CO₂], but decreased by N deposition. Wood-starch concentration increased, and wood nitrogen concentration decreased with increasing [CO₂], but neither was affected by N deposition. The lignin concentration in wood was affected by neither [CO₂] nor N deposition. Our results suggest that, under natural growth conditions, rising atmospheric [CO₂] will not lead to enhanced radial stem growth of spruce, but atmospheric N deposition will, and in some regions is probably already doing so. Elevated [CO₂], however, will lead to denser wood unless this effect is compensated by massive atmospheric N deposition. If can be speculated that greater wood density under elevated [CO₂] may alter the mechanical properties of wood, and higher ratios of C/N and lignin/N in wood grown at elevated [CO₂] may affect nutrient cycles of forest ecosystems.