High fitness costs of climate change‐induced camouflage mismatch

Anthropogenic climate change has created myriad stressors that threaten to cause local extinctions if wild populations fail to adapt to novel conditions. We studied individual and population‐level fitness costs of a climate change‐induced stressor: camouflage mismatch in seasonally colour molting species confronting decreasing snow cover duration. Based on field measurements of radiocollared snowshoe hares, we found strong selection on coat colour molt phenology, such that animals mismatched with the colour of their background experienced weekly survival decreases up to 7%. In the absence of adaptive response, we show that these mortality costs would result in strong population‐level declines by the end of the century. However, natural selection acting on wide individual variation in molt phenology might enable evolutionary adaptation to camouflage mismatch. We conclude that evolutionary rescue will be critical for hares and other colour molting species to keep up with climate change.     

Sex increases the probability of evolutionary rescue in the presence of a competitor

The explanation for the continued existence of sex, despite its many costs, remains one of the major challenges of evolutionary biology. Previous experimental studies have demonstrated that sex increases the rate of adaptation in novel environments relative to asexual reproduction. Whereas these studies have investigated the impact of sex on adaptation to stressful abiotic environments, the potential for biotic interactions to influence this advantage of sex has been largely ignored. Species rarely exist in isolation in natural conditions, so the impact of sex on adaptation to a stressful abiotic environment may be altered by the interactions between coexisting species. To investigate the interplay of sex and competition on adaptation to deteriorating conditions, we allowed populations of the unicellular alga (Chlamydomonas reinhardtii) to evolve in an environment to which they were initially poorly adapted. We manipulated both their mode of reproduction and the presence of a competitor, and monitored population size and proportion of evolutionary rescue events for each mode of reproduction. The results indicate that sex may be the beneficial strategy in the presence of the competitor. Sexual populations had highest probability of evolutionary rescue irrespective of the presence of the competitor. The overall advantage of sex was also manifested through higher level of adaptedness of survived sexual populations relative to asexual populations. Since competitive interactions are commonplace in nature, one of the explanations for the maintenance of sex by natural selection may be the increased rate of adaptation of sexual populations both in the presence and absence of competitors.     

Eco-evolutionary feedbacks,adaptive dynamics and evolutionary rescue theory

Adaptive dynamics theory has been devised to account for feedbacks between ecological and evolutionary processes. Doing so opens new dimensions to and raises new challenges about evolutionary rescue. Adaptive dynamics theory predicts that successive trait substitutions driven by eco-evolutionary feedbacks can gradually erode population size or growth rate, thus potentially raising the extinction risk. Even a single trait substitution can suffice to degrade population viability drastically at once and cause ‘evolutionary suicide’. In a changing environment, a population may track a viable evolutionary attractor that leads to evolutionary suicide, a phenomenon called ‘evolutionary trapping’. Evolutionary trapping and suicide are commonly observed in adaptive dynamics models in which the smooth variation of traits causes catastrophic changes in ecological state. In the face of trapping and suicide, evolutionary rescue requires that the population overcome evolutionary threats generated by the adaptive process itself. Evolutionary repellors play an important role in determining how variation in environmental conditions correlates with the occurrence of evolutionary trapping and suicide, and what evolutionary pathways rescue may follow. In contrast with standard predictions of evolutionary rescue theory, low genetic variation may attenuate the threat of evolutionary suicide and small population sizes may facilitate escape from evolutionary traps.     

Inbreeding depression and low between-population heterosis in recently diverged experimental populations of a selfing species

In fragmented populations, genetic drift and selection reduce genetic diversity, which in turn results in a loss of fitness or in a loss of evolvability. Genetic rescue, that is, controlled input of diversity from distant populations, may restore evolutionary potential, whereas outbreeding depression might counteract the positive effect of this strategy. We carried out self-pollination and crosses within and between populations in an experimental subdivided population of a selfing species, Triticum aestivum L., to estimate the magnitude of these two phenomena. Surprisingly, for a self-fertilizing species, we found significant inbreeding depression within each population for four of the six traits studied, indicating that mildly deleterious mutations were still segregating in these populations. The progeny of within- and between-population crosses was very similar, indicating low between-population heterosis and little outbreeding depression. We conclude that relatively large population effective sizes prevented fixation of a high genetic load and that local adaptation was limited in these recently diverged populations. The kinship coefficient estimated between the parents using 20 neutral markers was a poor predictor of the progeny phenotypic values, indicating that there was a weak link between neutral diversity and genes controlling fitness-related traits. These results show that when assessing the viability of natural populations and the need for genetic rescue, the use of neutral markers should be complemented with information about the presence of local adaptation in the subdivided population.     

Evolutionary rescue can be impeded by temporary environmental amelioration

Rapid evolutionary adaptation has the potential to rescue from extinction populations experiencing environmental changes. Little is known, however, about the impact of short‐term environmental fluctuations during long‐term environmental deterioration, an intrinsic property of realistic environmental changes. Temporary environmental amelioration arising from such fluctuations could either facilitate evolutionary rescue by allowing population recovery (a positive demographic effect) or impede it by relaxing selection for beneficial mutations required for future survival (a negative population genetic effect). We address this uncertainty in an experiment with populations of a bacteriophage virus that evolved under deteriorating conditions (gradually increasing temperature). Periodic environmental amelioration (short periods of reduced temperature) caused demographic recovery during the early phase of the experiment, but ultimately reduced the frequency of evolutionary rescue. These experimental results suggest that environmental fluctuations could reduce the potential of evolutionary rescue.     

Genetic conservation and management of the California endemic,Torrey pine (Pinus torreyana Parry): Implications of genetic rescue in a genetically depauperate species

Rare species present a challenge under changing environmental conditions as the genetic consequences of rarity may limit species ability to adapt to environmental change. To evaluate the evolutionary potential of a rare species, we assessed variation in traits important to plant fitness using multigenerational common garden experiments. Torrey pine, Pinus torreyana Parry, is one of the rarest pines in the world, restricted to one mainland and one island population. Morphological differentiation between island and mainland populations suggests adaptation to local environments may have contributed to trait variation. The distribution of phenotypic variances within the common garden suggests distinct population‐specific growth trajectories underlay genetic differences, with the island population exhibiting substantially reduced genetic variance for growth relative to the mainland population. Furthermore, F1 hybrids, representing a cross between mainland and island trees, exhibit increased height accumulation and fecundity relative to mainland and island parents. This may indicate genetic rescue via intraspecific hybridization could provide the necessary genetic variation to persist in environments modified as a result of climate change. Long‐term common garden experiments, such as these, provide invaluable resources to assess the distribution of genetic variance that may inform conservation strategies to preserve evolutionary potential of rare species, including genetic rescue.     

Genotype-by-environment interactions and adaptation to local temperature affect immunity and fecundity in Drosophila melanogaster

Natural populations of most organisms harbor substantial genetic variation for resistance to infection. The continued existence of such variation is unexpected under simple evolutionary models that either posit direct and continuous natural selection on the immune system or an evolved life history "balance" between immunity and other fitness traits in a constant environment. However, both local adaptation to heterogeneous environments and genotype-by-environment interactions can maintain genetic variation in a species. In this study, we test Drosophila melanogaster genotypes sampled from tropical Africa, temperate northeastern North America, and semi-tropical southeastern North America for resistance to bacterial infection and fecundity at three different environmental temperatures. Environmental temperature had absolute effects on all traits, but there were also marked genotype-by-environment interactions that may limit the global efficiency of natural selection on both traits. African flies performed more poorly than North American flies in both immunity and fecundity at the lowest temperature, but not at the higher temperatures, suggesting that the African population is maladapted to low temperature. In contrast, there was no evidence for clinal variation driven by thermal adaptation within North America for either trait. Resistance to infection and reproductive success were generally uncorrelated across genotypes, so this study finds no evidence for a fitness tradeoff between immunity and fecundity under the conditions tested. Both local adaptation to geographically heterogeneous environments and genotype-by-environment interactions may explain the persistence of genetic variation for resistance to infection in natural populations.     

Selection history and epistatic interactions impact dynamics of adaptation to novel environmental stresses

In rapidly changing environments, selection history may impact the dynamics of adaptation. Mutations selected in one environment may result in pleiotropic fitness trade-offs in subsequent novel environments, slowing the rates of adaptation. Epistatic interactions between mutations selected in sequential stressful environments may slow or accelerate subsequent rates of adaptation, depending on the nature of that interaction. We explored the dynamics of adaptation during sequential exposure to herbicides with different modes of action in Chlamydomonas reinhardtii. Evolution of resistance to two of the herbicides was largely independent of selection history. For carbetamide, previous adaptation to other herbicide modes of action positively impacted the likelihood of adaptation to this herbicide. Furthermore, while adaptation to all individual herbicides was associated with pleiotropic fitness costs in stress-free environments, we observed that accumulation of resistance mechanisms was accompanied by a reduction in overall fitness costs. We suggest that antagonistic epistasis may be a driving mechanism that enables populations to more readily adapt in novel environments. These findings highlight the potential for sequences of xenobiotics to facilitate the rapid evolution of multiple-drug and -pesticide resistance, as well as the potential for epistatic interactions between adaptive mutations to facilitate evolutionary rescue in rapidly changing environments.     

Evolutionary rescue in vertebrates: evidence,applications and uncertainty

The current rapid rate of human-driven environmental change presents wild populations with novel conditions and stresses. Theory and experimental evidence for evolutionary rescue present a promising case for species facing environmental change persisting via adaptation. Here, we assess the potential for evolutionary rescue in wild vertebrates. Available information on evolutionary rescue was rare and restricted to abundant and highly fecund species that faced severe intentional anthropogenic selective pressures. However, examples from adaptive tracking in common species and genetic rescues in species of conservation concern provide convincing evidence in favour of the mechanisms of evolutionary rescue. We conclude that low population size, long generation times and limited genetic variability will result in evolutionary rescue occurring rarely for endangered species without intervention. Owing to the risks presented by current environmental change and the possibility of evolutionary rescue in nature, we suggest means to study evolutionary rescue by mapping genotype → phenotype → demography → fitness relationships, and priorities for applying evolutionary rescue to wild populations.     

EVOLUTIONARY RESCUE OF SEXUAL AND ASEXUAL POPULATIONS IN A DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENT

The environmental change experienced by many contemporary populations of organisms poses a serious risk to their survival. From the theory of evolutionary rescue, we predict that the combination of sex and genetic diversity should increase the probability of survival by increasing variation and thereby the probability of generating a type that can tolerate the stressful environment. We tested this prediction by comparing experimental populations of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii that differ in sexuality and in the initial amount of genetic diversity. The lines were serially propagated in an environment where the level of stress caused by salt increased over time from fresh water to the limits of marine conditions. In the long term, the combination of high diversity and obligate sexuality was most effective in supporting evolutionary rescue. Most of the adaptation to high‐salt environments in the obligate sexual‐high diversity lines had occurred by midway through the experiment, indicating that positive genetic correlations of adaptation to lethal stress with adaptation to sublethal stress greatly increased the probability of evolutionary rescue. The evolutionary rescue events observed in this study provide evidence that major shifts in ways of life can arise within short time frames through the action of natural selection in sexual populations.     

Antagonistic coevolution limits population persistence of a virus in a thermally deteriorating environment

Understanding the conditions under which rapid evolutionary adaptation can prevent population extinction in deteriorating environments (i.e. evolutionary rescue) is a crucial aim in the face of global climate change. Despite a rapidly growing body of work in this area, little attention has been paid to the importance of interspecific coevolutionary interactions. Antagonistic coevolution commonly observed between hosts and parasites is likely to retard evolutionary rescue because it often reduces population sizes, and results in the evolution of costly host defence and parasite counter-defence. We used experimental populations of a bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens SBW25 and a bacteriophage virus (SBW25Φ2), to study how host-parasite coevolution impacts viral population persistence in the face of gradually increasing temperature, an environmental stress for the virus but not the bacterium. The virus persisted much longer when it evolved in the presence of an evolutionarily constant host genotype (i.e. in the absence of coevolution) than when the bacterium and virus coevolved. Further experiments suggest that both a reduction in population size and costly infectivity strategies contributed to viral extinction as a result of coevolution. The results highlight the importance of interspecific evolutionary interactions for the evolutionary responses of populations to global climate change.     

Evolutionary determinants of population differences in population growth rate × habitat temperature interactions in Chironomus riparius

Little is known about intraspecific variation in fitness performance in response to thermal stress among natural populations and how this relates to evolutionary aspects of species ecology. In this study, population growth rate (PGR; a composite fitness measure) varied among five natural Chironomus riparius populations sampled across a climatic gradient when subjected to three temperature treatments reflecting the typical range of summer habitat temperatures (20, 24 and 28 °C). The variation could be explained by a complex model including effects of genetic drift, genetic diversity and adaptation to average temperature during the warmest month, in addition to experimental temperature. All populations suffered a decrease in PGR from 20 to 28 °C and ΔPGR was significantly correlated with the respective average habitat temperature in the warmest month—populations from warmer areas showing lower ΔPGR. This implies that long-term exposure to higher temperatures in the warmest month (the key reproductive period for C. riparius) is likely to be a key selective force influencing fitness at higher temperatures. A comparison of phenotypic divergence and neutral genetic differentiation revealed that one phenotypic trait—the number of fertile egg masses per female—appeared to be under positive selection in some populations. Our findings support a role for response to temperature selection along a climatic gradient and suggest population history is a key determinant of intraspecific fitness variation. We stress the importance of integrating different types of data (climatic, experimental, genetic) in order to understand the effects of global climate change on biodiversity.     

The genetics of phenotypic plasticity. XV. Genetic assimilation,the Baldwin effect,and evolutionary rescue

We used an individual‐based simulation model to examine the role of phenotypic plasticity on persistence and adaptation to two patterns of environmental variation, a single, abrupt step change and continual, linear change. Our model tested the assumptions and predictions of the theory of genetic assimilation, explored the evolutionary dynamics of the Baldwin effect, and provided expectations for the evolutionary response to climate change. We found that genetic assimilation as originally postulated is not likely to occur because the replacement of plasticity by fixed genetic effects takes much longer than the environment is likely to remain stable. On the other hand, trait plasticity as an enhancement to continual evolutionary change may be an important evolutionary mechanism as long as plasticity has little or no costs. Whether or not plasticity helps or hinders evolutionary rescue following a step change in the environment depends on whether plasticity is costly. For linear environmental change, noncostly plasticity always decreases extinction rates, while costly plasticity can create a fitness drag and increase the chance of extinction. Thus, with changing climates plasticity can enhance adaptation and prevent extinction under some conditions, but not others.     

Overcoming Allee effects through evolutionary,genetic, and demographic rescue

Despite the amplified threats of extinction facing small founder populations, successful colonization sometimes occurs, bringing devastating ecological and economic consequences. One explanation may be rapid evolution, which can increase mean fitness in populations declining towards extinction, permitting persistence and subsequent expansion. Such evolutionary rescue may be particularly important, given Allee effects. When a population is introduced at low density, individuals often experience a reduction in one or more components of fitness due to novel selection pressures that arise from diminished intraspecific interactions and positive density dependence (i.e. component Allee effects). A population can avoid extinction if it can adapt and recover on its own (i.e. evolutionary rescue), or if additional immigration sustains the population (i.e. demographic rescue) or boosts its genetic variation that facilitates adaptation (i.e. genetic rescue). These various forms of rescue have often been invoked as possible mechanisms for specific invasions, but their relative importance to invasion is not generally understood. Within a spatially explicit modelling framework, we consider the relative impact of each type of rescue on the probability of successful colonization, when there is evolution of a multi-locus quantitative trait that influences the strength of component Allee effects. We demonstrate that when Allee effects are important, the effect of demographic rescue via recurrent immigration overall provides the greatest opportunity for success. While highlighting the role of evolution in the invasion process, we underscore the importance of the ecological context influencing the persistence of small founder populations.     

Degeneracy allows for both apparent homogeneity and diversification in populations

Trait diversity - the substrate for natural selection - is necessary for adaptation through selection, particularly in populations faced with environmental changes that diminish population fitness. In habitats that remain unchanged for many generations, stabilizing selection maximizes exploitation of resources by reducing trait diversity to a narrow optimal range. One might expect that such ostensibly homogeneous populations would have a reduced potential for heritable adaptive responses when faced with fitness-reducing environmental changes. However, field studies have documented populations that, even after long periods of evolutionary stasis, can still rapidly evolve in response to changed environmental conditions. We argue that degeneracy, the ability of diverse population elements to function similarly, can satisfy both the current need to maximize fitness and the future need for diversity. Degenerate ensembles appear functionally redundant in certain environmental contexts and functionally diverse in others. We propose that genetic variation not contributing to the observed range of phenotypes in a current population, also known as cryptic genetic variation (CGV), is a specific case of degeneracy. We argue that CGV, which gradually accumulates in static populations in stable environments, reveals hidden trait differences when environments change. By allowing CGV accumulation, static populations prepare themselves for future rapid adaptations to environmental novelty. A greater appreciation of degeneracy's role in resolving the inherent tension between current stabilizing selection and future directional selection has implications in conservation biology and may be applied in social and technological systems to maximize current performance while strengthening the potential for future changes.     

Stress and adaptation in conservation genetics

Stress, adaptation and evolution are major concerns in conservation biology. Stresses from pollution, climatic changes, disease etc. may affect population persistence. Further, stress typically occurs when species are placed in captivity. Threatened species are usually managed to conserve their ability to adapt to environmental changes, whilst species in captivity undergo adaptations that are deleterious upon reintroduction into the wild. In model studies using Drosophila melanogaster, we have found that; (a) inbreeding and loss of genetic variation reduced resistance to the stress of disease, (b) extinction rates under inbreeding are elevated by stress, (c) adaptive evolutionary potential in an increasingly stressful environment is reduced in small population, (d) rates of inbreeding are elevated under stressful conditions, (e) genetic adaptation to captivity reduces fitness when populations are reintroduced into the 'wild', and (f) the deleterious effects of adaptation on reintroduction success can be reduced by population fragmentation.     

Population persistence under high mutation rate: From evolutionary rescue to lethal mutagenesis

Populations may genetically adapt to severe stress that would otherwise cause their extirpation. Recent theoretical work, combining stochastic demography with Fisher's geometric model of adaptation, has shown how evolutionary rescue becomes unlikely beyond some critical intensity of stress. Increasing mutation rates may however allow adaptation to more intense stress, raising concerns about the effectiveness of treatments against pathogens. This previous work assumes that populations are rescued by the rise of a single resistance mutation. However, even in asexual organisms, rescue can also stem from the accumulation of multiple mutations in a single genome. Here, we extend previous work to study the rescue process in an asexual population where the mutation rate is sufficiently high so that such events may be common. We predict both the ultimate extinction probability of the population and the distribution of extinction times. We compare the accuracy of different approximations covering a large range of mutation rates. Moderate increase in mutation rates favors evolutionary rescue. However, larger increase leads to extinction by the accumulation of a large mutation load, a process called lethal mutagenesis. We discuss how these results could help design “evolution‐proof” antipathogen treatments that even highly mutable strains could not overcome.     

Patterns of quantitative genetic variation in multiple dimensions

A fundamental question for both evolutionary biologists and breeders is the extent to which genetic correlations limit the ability of populations to respond to selection. Here I view this topic from three perspectives. First, I propose several nondimensional statistics to quantify the genetic variation present in a suite of traits and to describe the extent to which correlations limit their selection response. A review of five data sets suggests that the total variation differs substantially between populations. In all cases analyzed, however, the “effective number of dimensions” is less than two: more than half of the total genetic variation is explained by a single combination of traits. Second, I consider how patterns of variation affect the average evolutionary response to selection in a random direction. When genetic variation lies in a small number of dimensions but there are a large number of traits under selection, then the average selection response will be reduced substantially from its potential maximum. Third, I discuss how a low genetic correlation between male fitness and female fitness limits the ability of populations to adapt. Data from two recent studies of natural populations suggest this correlation can diminish or even erase any genetic benefit to mate choice. Together these results suggest that adaptation (in natural populations) and genetic improvement (in domesticated populations) may often be as much constrained by patterns of genetic correlation as by the overall amount of genetic variation.     

ROLE OF SEX AND MIGRATION IN ADAPTATION TO SINK ENVIRONMENTS

Understanding the effects of sex and migration on adaptation to novel environments remains a key problem in evolutionary biology. Using a single‐cell alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, we investigated how sex and migration affected rates of evolutionary rescue in a sink environment, and subsequent changes in fitness following evolutionary rescue. We show that sex and migration affect both the rate of evolutionary rescue and subsequent adaptation. However, their combined effects change as the populations adapt to a sink habitat. Both sex and migration independently increased rates of evolutionary rescue, but the effect of sex on subsequent fitness improvements, following initial rescue, changed with migration, as sex was beneficial in the absence of migration but constraining adaptation when combined with migration. These results suggest that sex and migration are beneficial during the initial stages of adaptation, but can become detrimental as the population adapts to its environment.     

Beyond simple adaptation: Incorporating other evolutionary processes and concepts into eco-evolutionary dynamics

Studies of eco-evolutionary dynamics have integrated evolution with ecological processes at multiple scales (populations, communities and ecosystems) and with multiple interspecific interactions (antagonistic, mutualistic and competitive). However, evolution has often been conceptualised as a simple process: short-term directional adaptation that increases population growth. Here we argue that diverse other evolutionary processes, well studied in population genetics and evolutionary ecology, should also be considered to explore the full spectrum of feedback between ecological and evolutionary processes. Relevant but underappreciated processes include (1) drift and mutation, (2) disruptive selection causing lineage diversification or speciation reversal and (3) evolution driven by relative fitness differences that may decrease population growth. Because eco-evolutionary dynamics have often been studied by population and community ecologists, it will be important to incorporate a variety of concepts in population genetics and evolutionary ecology to better understand and predict eco-evolutionary dynamics in nature.