Animal Reservoir,Natural and Socioeconomic Variations and the Transmission of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Chenzhou,China, 2006–2010

Background

China has the highest incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) worldwide. Reported cases account for 90% of the total number of global cases. By 2010, approximately 1.4 million HFRS cases had been reported in China. This study aimed to explore the effect of the rodent reservoir, and natural and socioeconomic variables, on the transmission pattern of HFRS.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Data on monthly HFRS cases were collected from 2006 to 2010. Dynamic rodent monitoring data, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, climate data, and socioeconomic data were also obtained. Principal component analysis was performed, and the time-lag relationships between the extracted principal components and HFRS cases were analyzed. Polynomial distributed lag (PDL) models were used to fit and forecast HFRS transmission. Four principal components were extracted. Component 1 (F1) represented rodent density, the NDVI, and monthly average temperature. Component 2 (F2) represented monthly average rainfall and monthly average relative humidity. Component 3 (F3) represented rodent density and monthly average relative humidity. The last component (F4) represented gross domestic product and the urbanization rate. F2, F3, and F4 were significantly correlated, with the monthly HFRS incidence with lags of 4 months (r = −0.289, P<0.05), 5 months (r = −0.523, P<0.001), and 0 months (r = −0.376, P<0.01), respectively. F1 was correlated with the monthly HFRS incidence, with a lag of 4 months (r = 0.179, P = 0.192). Multivariate PDL modeling revealed that the four principal components were significantly associated with the transmission of HFRS.

Conclusions

The monthly trend in HFRS cases was significantly associated with the local rodent reservoir, climatic factors, the NDVI, and socioeconomic conditions present during the previous months. The findings of this study may facilitate the development of early warning systems for the control and prevention of HFRS and similar diseases.     

Dampening of population cycles in voles affects small mammal community structure,decreases diversity,and increases prevalence of a zoonotic disease

Long‐term decline and depression of density in cyclic small rodents is a recent widespread phenomenon. These observed changes at the population level might have cascading effects at the ecosystem level. Here, we assessed relationships between changing boreal landscapes and biodiversity changes of small mammal communities. We also inferred potential effects of observed community changes for increased transmission risk of Puumala virus (PUUV) spread, causing the zoonotic disease nephropatica epidemica in humans. Analyses were based on long‐term (1971–2013) monitoring data of shrews and voles representing 58 time series in northern Sweden. We calculated richness, diversity, and evenness at alpha, beta, and gamma level, partitioned beta diversity into turnover (species replacement) and nestedness (species addition/removal), used similarity percentages (SIMPER) analysis to assess community structure, and calculated the cumulated number of PUUV‐infected bank voles and average PUUV prevalence (percentage of infected bank voles) per vole cycle. Alpha, beta, and gamma richness and diversity of voles, but not shrews, showed long‐term trends that varied spatially. The observed patterns were associated with an increase in community contribution of bank vole (Myodes glareolus), a decrease of gray‐sided vole (M. rufocanus) and field vole (Microtus agrestis) and a hump‐shaped variation in contribution of common shrew (Sorex araneus). Long‐term biodiversity changes were largely related to changes in forest landscape structure. Number of PUUV‐infected bank voles in spring was negatively related to beta and gamma diversity, and positively related to turnover of shrews (replaced by voles) and to community contribution of bank voles. The latter was also positively related to average PUUV prevalence in spring. We showed that long‐term changes in the boreal landscape contributed to explain the decrease in biodiversity and the change in structure of small mammal communities. In addition, our results suggest decrease in small mammal diversity to have knock‐on effects on dynamics of infectious diseases among small mammals with potential implications for disease transmission to humans.     

The Spatial Analysis on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Jiangsu Province,China Based on Geographic Information System

Background

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is endemic in mainland China, accounting for 90% of total reported cases worldwide, and Jiangsu is one of the most severely affected provinces. In this study, the authors conducted GIS-based spatial analyses in order to determine the spatial distribution of the HFRS cases, identify key areas and explore risk factors for public health planning and resource allocation.

Methods

Interpolation maps by inverse distance weighting were produced to detect the spatial distribution of HFRS cases in Jiangsu from 2001 to 2011. Spatio-temporal clustering was applied to identify clusters at the county level. Spatial correlation analysis was conducted to detect influencing factors of HFRS in Jiangsu.

Results

HFRS cases in Jiangsu from 2001 to 2011 were mapped and the results suggested that cases in Jiangsu were not distributed randomly. Cases were mainly distributed in northeastern and southwestern Jiangsu, especially in Dafeng and Sihong counties. It was notable that prior to this study, Sihong county had rarely been reported as a high-risk area of HFRS. With the maximum spatial size of 50% of the total population and the maximum temporal size of 50% of the total population, spatio-temporal clustering showed that there was one most likely cluster (LLR = 624.52, P<0.0001, RR = 8.19) and one second-most likely cluster (LLR = 553.97, P<0.0001, RR = 8.25), and both of these clusters appeared from 2001 to 2004. Spatial correlation analysis showed that the incidence of HFRS in Jiangsu was influenced by distances to highways, railways, rivers and lakes.

Conclusion

The application of GIS together with spatial interpolation, spatio-temporal clustering and spatial correlation analysis can effectively identify high-risk areas and factors influencing HFRS incidence to lay a foundation for researching its pathogenesis.     

Landscape features and helminth co-infection shape bank vole immunoheterogeneity,with consequences for Puumala virus epidemiology

Heterogeneity in environmental conditions helps to maintain genetic and phenotypic diversity in ecosystems. As such, it may explain why the capacity of animals to mount immune responses is highly variable. The quality of habitat patches, in terms of resources, parasitism, predation and habitat fragmentation may, for example, trigger trade-offs ultimately affecting the investment of individuals in various immunological pathways. We described spatial immunoheterogeneity in bank vole populations with respect to landscape features and co-infection. We focused on the consequences of this heterogeneity for the risk of Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) infection. We assessed the expression of the Tnf-α and Mx2 genes and demonstrated a negative correlation between PUUV load and the expression of these immune genes in bank voles. Habitat heterogeneity was partly associated with differences in the expression of these genes. Levels of Mx2 were lower in large forests than in fragmented forests, possibly due to differences in parasite communities. We previously highlighted the positive association between infection with Heligmosomum mixtum and infection with PUUV. We found that Tnf-α was more strongly expressed in voles infected with PUUV than in uninfected voles or in voles co-infected with the nematode H. mixtum and PUUV. H. mixtum may limit the capacity of the vole to develop proinflammatory responses. This effect may increase the risk of PUUV infection and replication in host cells. Overall, our results suggest that close interactions between landscape features, co-infection and immune gene expression may shape PUUV epidemiology.     

Plasma Levels of Soluble Urokinase-Type Plasminogen Activator Receptor Associate with the Clinical Severity of Acute Puumala Hantavirus Infection

Objectives

Urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor is a multifunctional glycoprotein, the expression of which is increased during inflammation. It is known to bind to β₃-integrins, which are elementary for the cellular entry of hantaviruses. Plasma soluble form of the receptor (suPAR) levels were evaluated as a predictor of severe Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) infection and as a possible factor involved in the pathogenesis of the disease.

Design

A single-centre prospective cohort study.

Subjects and Methods

Plasma suPAR levels were measured twice during the acute phase and once during the convalescence in 97 patients with serologically confirmed acute PUUV infection using a commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA).

Results

The plasma suPAR levels were significantly higher during the acute phase compared to the control values after the hospitalization (median 8.7 ng/ml, range 4.0–18.2 ng/ml vs. median 4.7 ng/ml, range 2.4–12.2 ng/ml, P<0.001). The maximum suPAR levels correlated with several variables reflecting the severity of the disease. There was a positive correlation with maximum leukocyte count (r = 0.475, p<0.001), maximum plasma creatinine concentration (r = 0.378, p<0.001), change in weight during the hospitalization (r = 0.406, p<0.001) and the length of hospitalization (r = 0.325, p = 0.001), and an inverse correlation with minimum platelet count (r = −0.325, p = 0.001) and minimum hematocrit (r = −0.369, p<0.001).

Conclusion

Plasma suPAR values are markedly increased during acute PUUV infection and associate with the severity of the disease. The overexpression of suPAR possibly activates β₃-integrin in PUUV infection, and thus might be involved in the pathogenesis of the disease.     

Time-Specific Ecologic Niche Models Forecast the Risk of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Dongting Lake District,China, 2005–2010

Background

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodent-borne infectious disease, is one of the most serious public health threats in China. Increasing our understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of HFRS infections could guide local prevention and control strategies.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We employed statistical models to analyze HFRS case data together with environmental data from the Dongting Lake district during 2005–2010. Specifically, time-specific ecologic niche models (ENMs) were used to quantify and identify risk factors associated with HFRS transmission as well as forecast seasonal variation in risk across geographic areas. Results showed that the Maximum Entropy model provided the best predictive ability (AUC = 0.755). Time-specific Maximum Entropy models showed that the potential risk areas of HFRS significantly varied across seasons. High-risk areas were mainly found in the southeastern and southwestern areas of the Dongting Lake district. Our findings based on models focused on the spring and winter seasons showed particularly good performance. The potential risk areas were smaller in March, May and August compared with those identified for June, July and October to December. Both normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land use types were found to be the dominant risk factors.

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings indicate that time-specific ENMs provide a useful tool to forecast the spatial and temporal risk of HFRS.     

A model system for in vitro studies of bank vole borne viruses

The bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is a common small mammal in Europe and a natural host for several important emerging zoonotic viruses, e.g. Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) that causes hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). Hantaviruses are known to interfere with several signaling pathways in infected human cells, and HFRS is considered an immune-mediated disease. There is no in vitro-model available for infectious experiments in bank vole cells, nor tools for analyses of bank vole immune activation and responses. Consequently, it is not known if there are any differences in the regulation of virus induced responses in humans compared to natural hosts during infection. We here present an in vitro-model for studies of bank vole borne viruses and their interactions with natural host cell innate immune responses. Bank vole embryonic fibroblasts (VEFs) were isolated and shown to be susceptible for PUUV-infection, including a wild-type PUUV strain (only passaged in bank voles). The significance of VEFs as a model system for bank vole associated viruses was further established by infection studies showing that these cells are also susceptible to tick borne encephalitis, cowpox and Ljungan virus. The genes encoding bank vole IFN-β and Mx2 were partially sequenced and protocols for semi-quantitative RT-PCR were developed. Interestingly, PUUV did not induce an increased IFN-β or Mx2 mRNA expression. Corresponding infections with CPXV and LV induced IFN-β but not Mx2, while TBEV induced both IFN-β and Mx2. In conclusion, VEFs together with protocols developed for detection of bank vole innate immune activation provide valuable tools for future studies of how PUUV and other zoonotic viruses affect cells derived from bank voles compared to human cells. Notably, wild-type PUUV which has been difficult to cultivate in vitro readily infected VEFs, suggesting that embryonic fibroblasts from natural hosts might be valuable for isolation of wild-type hantaviruses.     

ICU-Associated Acinetobacter baumannii Colonisation/Infection in a High HIV-Prevalence Resource-Poor Setting

Background

There are hardly any data about the incidence, risk factors and outcomes of ICU-associated A.baumannii colonisation/infection in HIV-infected and uninfected persons from resource-poor settings like Africa.

Methods

We reviewed the case records of patients with A.baumannii colonisation/infection admitted into the adult respiratory and surgical ICUs in Cape Town, South Africa, from January 1 to December 31 2008. In contrast to colonisation, infection was defined as isolation of A.baumannii from any biological site in conjunction with a compatible clinical picture warranting treatment with antibiotics effective against A.baumannii.

Results

The incidence of A.baumannii colonisation/infection in 268 patients was 15 per 100 person-years, with an in-ICU mortality of 26.5 per 100 person-years. The average length of stay in ICU was 15 days (range 1–150). A.baumannii was most commonly isolated from the respiratory tract followed by the bloodstream. Independent predictors of mortality included older age (p = 0.02), low CD4 count if HIV-infected (p = 0.038), surgical intervention (p = 0.047), co-morbid Gram-negative sepsis (p = 0.01), high APACHE-II score (p = 0.001), multi-organ dysfunction syndrome (p = 0.012), and a positive blood culture for A.baumannii (p = 0.017). Of 21 A.baumannii colonised/infected HIV-positive persons those with clinical AIDS (CD4<200 cells/mm³) had significantly higher in-ICU mortality and were more likely to have a positive blood culture.Conclusion In this resource-poor setting A.baumannii infection in critically ill patients is common and associated with high mortality. HIV co-infected patients with advanced immunosuppression are at higher risk of death.     

Genetic Determinants of Long-Term Changes in Blood Lipid Concentrations: 10-Year Follow-Up of the GLACIER Study

Recent genome-wide meta-analyses identified 157 loci associated with cross-sectional lipid traits. Here we tested whether these loci associate (singly and in trait-specific genetic risk scores [GRS]) with longitudinal changes in total cholesterol (TC) and triglyceride (TG) levels in a population-based prospective cohort from Northern Sweden (the GLACIER Study). We sought replication in a southern Swedish cohort (the MDC Study; N = 2,943). GLACIER Study participants (N = 6,064) were genotyped with the MetaboChip array. Up to 3,495 participants had 10-yr follow-up data available in the GLACIER Study. The TC- and TG-specific GRSs were strongly associated with change in lipid levels (β = 0.02 mmol/l per effect allele per decade follow-up, P = 2.0×10⁻¹¹ for TC; β = 0.02 mmol/l per effect allele per decade follow-up, P = 5.0×10⁻⁵ for TG). In individual SNP analysis, one TC locus, apolipoprotein E (APOE) rs4420638 (β = 0.12 mmol/l per effect allele per decade follow-up, P = 2.0×10⁻⁵), and two TG loci, tribbles pseudokinase 1 (TRIB1) rs2954029 (β = 0.09 mmol/l per effect allele per decade follow-up, P = 5.1×10⁻⁴) and apolipoprotein A-I (APOA1) rs6589564 (β = 0.31 mmol/l per effect allele per decade follow-up, P = 1.4×10⁻⁸), remained significantly associated with longitudinal changes for the respective traits after correction for multiple testing. An additional 12 loci were nominally associated with TC or TG changes. In replication analyses, the APOE rs4420638, TRIB1 rs2954029, and APOA1 rs6589564 associations were confirmed (P≤0.001). In summary, trait-specific GRSs are robustly associated with 10-yr changes in lipid levels and three individual SNPs were strongly associated with 10-yr changes in lipid levels.     

CRY2 Is Associated with Rapid Cycling in Bipolar Disorder Patients

Background

Bipolar disorder patients often display abnormalities in circadian rhythm, and they are sensitive to irregular diurnal rhythms. CRY2 participates in the core clock that generates circadian rhythms. CRY2 mRNA expression in blood mononuclear cells was recently shown to display a marked diurnal variation and to respond to total sleep deprivation in healthy human volunteers. It was also shown that bipolar patients in a depressive state had lower CRY2 mRNA levels, nonresponsive to total sleep deprivation, compared to healthy controls, and that CRY2 gene variation was associated with winter depression in both Swedish and Finnish cohorts.

Principal Findings

Four CRY2 SNPs spanning from intron 2 to downstream 3′UTR were analyzed for association to bipolar disorder type 1 (n = 497), bipolar disorder type 2 (n = 60) and bipolar disorder with the feature rapid cycling (n = 155) versus blood donors (n = 1044) in Sweden. Also, the rapid cycling cases were compared with bipolar disorder cases without rapid cycling (n = 422). The haplotype GGAC was underrepresented among rapid cycling cases versus controls and versus bipolar disorder cases without rapid cycling (OR = 0.7, P = 0.006−0.02), whereas overrepresentation among rapid cycling cases was seen for AAAC (OR = 1.3−1.4, P = 0.03−0.04) and AGGA (OR = 1.5, P = 0.05). The risk and protective CRY2 haplotypes and their effect sizes were similar to those recently suggested to be associated with winter depression in Swedes.

Conclusions

We propose that the circadian gene CRY2 is associated with rapid cycling in bipolar disorder. This is the first time a clock gene is implicated in rapid cycling, and one of few findings showing a molecular discrimination between rapid cycling and other forms of bipolar disorder.     

Association of Aminoacyl-tRNA Synthetases Gene Polymorphisms with the Risk of Congenital Heart Disease in the Chinese Han Population

Aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases (ARSs) are in charge of cellular protein synthesis and have additional domains that function in a versatile manner beyond translation. Eight core ARSs (EPRS, MRS, QRS, RRS, IRS, LRS, KRS, DRS) combined with three nonenzymatic components form a complex known as multisynthetase complex (MSC).We hypothesize that the single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of the eight core ARS coding genes might influence the susceptibility of sporadic congenital heart disease (CHD). Thus, we conducted a case-control study of 984 CHD cases and 2953 non-CHD controls in the Chinese Han population to evaluate the associations of 16 potentially functional SNPs within the eight ARS coding genes with the risk of CHD. We observed significant associations with the risk of CHD for rs1061248 [G/A; odds ratio (OR) = 0.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.81–0.99; P = 3.81×10⁻²], rs2230301 [A/C; OR = 0.73, 95%CI = 0.60–0.90, P = 3.81×10⁻²], rs1061160 [G/A; OR = 1.18, 95%CI = 1.06–1.31; P = 3.53×10⁻³] and rs5030754 [G/A; OR = 1.39, 95%CI = 1.11–1.75; P = 4.47×10⁻³] of EPRS gene. After multiple comparisons, rs1061248 conferred no predisposition to CHD. Additionally, a combined analysis showed a significant dosage-response effect of CHD risk among individuals carrying the different number of risk alleles (P _trend = 5.00×10⁻⁴). Compared with individuals with “0–2” risk allele, those carrying “3”, “4” or “5 or more” risk alleles had a 0.97-, 1.25- or 1.38-fold increased risk of CHD, respectively. These findings indicate that genetic variants of the EPRS gene may influence the individual susceptibility to CHD in the Chinese Han population.     

Remote Ischemic Preconditioning Reduces Perioperative Cardiac and Renal Events in Patients Undergoing Elective Coronary Intervention: A Meta-Analysis of 11 Randomized Trials

Background

Results from randomized controlled trials (RCT) concerning cardiac and renal effect of remote ischemic preconditioning(RIPC) in patients with stable coronary artery disease(CAD) are inconsistent. The aim of this study was to explore whether RIPC reduce cardiac and renal events after elective percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

Methods and Results

RCTs with data on cardiac or renal effect of RIPC in PCI were searched from Pubmed, EMBase, and Cochrane library (up to July 2014). Meta-regression and subgroup analysis were performed to identify the potential sources of significant heterogeneity(I ²≥40%). Eleven RCTs enrolling a total of 1713 study subjects with stable CAD were selected. Compared with controls, RIPC significantly reduced perioperative incidence of myocardial infarction (MI) [odds ratio(OR)  = 0.68; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.91; P = 0.01; I² = 41.0%] and contrast-induced acute kidney injury(AKI) (OR = 0.61; 95% CI, 0.38 to 0.98; P = 0.04; I² = 39.0%). Meta-regression and subgroup analyses confirmed that the major source of heterogeneity for the incidence of MI was male proportion (coefficient  = −0.049; P = 0.047; adjusted R² = 0.988; P = 0.02 for subgroup difference).

Conclusions

The present meta-analysis of RCTs suggests that RIPC may offer cardiorenal protection by reducing the incidence of MI and AKI in patients undergoing elective PCI. Moreover, this effect on MI is more pronounced in male subjects. Future high-quality, large-scale clinical trials should focus on the long-term clinical effect of RIPC.     

Plasma cell-free DNA levels are elevated in acute Puumala hantavirus infection

Introduction

Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) causes a hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome called nephropathia epidemica (NE). The aim of the present study was to evaluate plasma cell-free DNA (cf-DNA) levels and urinary cf-DNA excretion in acute NE as well as their associations with the severity of the disease.

Methods

Total plasma cf-DNA was quantified directly in plasma of 61 patients and urine of 20 patients with acute NE. We also carried out a qualitative high-sensitivity lab-on-a-chip DNA assay in 20 patients to elucidate the appearance of cf-DNA in plasma and urine.

Results

The maximum plasma cf-DNA values taken during acute NE were significantly higher than the control values taken after the hospitalization period (median 1.33 µg/ml, range 0.94–3.29 µg/ml vs. median 0.77 µg/ml, range 0.55–0.99 µg/ml, P<0.001). The maximum plasma cf-DNA levels correlated positively with maximum blood leukocyte count (r = 0.388, P = 0.002) and the length of hospital stay (r = 0.376, P = 0.003), and inversely with minimum blood platelet count (r = −0.297, P = 0.020). Qualitative analysis of plasma cf-DNA revealed that in most of the patients cf-DNA displayed a low-molecular weight appearance, corresponding to the size of apoptotic DNA (150–200 bp). The visually graded maximum cf-DNA band intensity correlated positively with the maximum quantity of total plasma cf-DNA (r = 0.513, P = 0.021). Maximum urinary excretion of cf-DNA in turn was not markedly increased during the acute phase of NE and did not correlate with any of the variables reflecting severity of the disease or with the maximum plasma cf-DNA level.

Conclusions

The plasma levels of cf-DNA are elevated during acute PUUV infection and correlate with the apoptotic cf-DNA-band intensity. The plasma cf-DNA concentration correlates with some variables reflecting the severity of the disease. The urinary excretion of cf-DNA does not reflect the degree of inflammation in the kidney.     

Effects and interaction of meteorological factors on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome incidence in Huludao City,northeastern China, 2007–2018

BackgroundHemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodent-borne disease, is a severe public health threat. Previous studies have discovered the influence of meteorological factors on HFRS incidence, while few studies have concentrated on the stratified analysis of delayed effects and interaction effects of meteorological factors on HFRS.ObjectiveHuludao City is a representative area in north China that suffers from HFRS with primary transmission by Rattus norvegicus. This study aimed to evaluate the climate factors of lag, interaction, and stratified effects of meteorological factors on HFRS incidence in Huludao City.MethodsOur researchers collected meteorological data and epidemiological data of HFRS cases in Huludao City during 2007–2018. First, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) for a maximum lag of 16 weeks was developed to assess the respective lag effect of temperature, precipitation, and humidity on HFRS incidence. We then constructed a generalized additive model (GAM) to explore the interaction effect between temperature and the other two meteorological factors on HFRS incidence and the stratified effect of meteorological factors.ResultsDuring the study period, 2751 cases of HFRS were reported in Huludao City. The incidence of HFRS showed a seasonal trend and peak times from February to May. Using the median WAT, median WTP, and median WARH as the reference, the results of DLNM showed that extremely high temperature (97.5^th percentile of WAT) had significant associations with HFRS at lag week 15 (RR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.04–2.74) and lag week 16 (RR = 2.80, 95% CI: 1.31–5.95). Under the extremely low temperature (2.5^th percentile of WAT), the RRs of HFRS infection were significant at lag week 5 (RR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.01–1.67) and lag 6 weeks (RR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.01–1.57). The RRs of relative humidity were statistically significant at lag week 10 (RR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.00–1.43) and lag week 11 (RR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.02–1.50) under extremely high relative humidity (97.5^th percentile of WARH); however, no statistically significance was observed under extremely low relative humidity (2.5^th percentile of WARH). The RRs were significantly high when WAT was -10 degrees Celsius (RR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.02–1.76), -9 degrees Celsius (1.37, 95% CI: 1.04–1.79), and -8 degrees Celsius (RR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.03–1.75) at lag week 5 and more than 23 degrees Celsius after 15 weeks. Interaction and stratified analyses showed that the risk of HFRS infection reached its highest when both temperature and precipitation were at a high level.ConclusionsOur study indicates that meteorological factors, including temperature and humidity, have delayed effects on the occurrence of HFRS in the study area, and the effect of temperature can be modified by humidity and precipitation. Public health professionals should pay more attention to HFRS control when the weather conditions of high temperature with more substantial precipitation and 15 weeks after the temperature is higher than 23 degrees Celsius.     

Genome-Wide Association Study in BRCA1 Mutation Carriers Identifies Novel Loci Associated with Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk

BRCA1-associated breast and ovarian cancer risks can be modified by common genetic variants. To identify further cancer risk-modifying loci, we performed a multi-stage GWAS of 11,705 BRCA1 carriers (of whom 5,920 were diagnosed with breast and 1,839 were diagnosed with ovarian cancer), with a further replication in an additional sample of 2,646 BRCA1 carriers. We identified a novel breast cancer risk modifier locus at 1q32 for BRCA1 carriers (rs2290854, P = 2.7×10⁻⁸, HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.09–1.20). In addition, we identified two novel ovarian cancer risk modifier loci: 17q21.31 (rs17631303, P = 1.4×10⁻⁸, HR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.17–1.38) and 4q32.3 (rs4691139, P = 3.4×10⁻⁸, HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.17–1.38). The 4q32.3 locus was not associated with ovarian cancer risk in the general population or BRCA2 carriers, suggesting a BRCA1-specific association. The 17q21.31 locus was also associated with ovarian cancer risk in 8,211 BRCA2 carriers (P = 2×10⁻⁴). These loci may lead to an improved understanding of the etiology of breast and ovarian tumors in BRCA1 carriers. Based on the joint distribution of the known BRCA1 breast cancer risk-modifying loci, we estimated that the breast cancer lifetime risks for the 5% of BRCA1 carriers at lowest risk are 28%–50% compared to 81%–100% for the 5% at highest risk. Similarly, based on the known ovarian cancer risk-modifying loci, the 5% of BRCA1 carriers at lowest risk have an estimated lifetime risk of developing ovarian cancer of 28% or lower, whereas the 5% at highest risk will have a risk of 63% or higher. Such differences in risk may have important implications for risk prediction and clinical management for BRCA1 carriers.     

Rainfall Is a Risk Factor for Sporadic Cases of Legionella pneumophila Pneumonia

It is not known whether rainfall increases the risk of sporadic cases of Legionella pneumonia. We sought to test this hypothesis in a prospective observational cohort study of non-immunosuppressed adults hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia (1995–2011). Cases with Legionella pneumonia were compared with those with non-Legionella pneumonia. Using daily rainfall data obtained from the regional meteorological service we examined patterns of rainfall over the days prior to admission in each study group. Of 4168 patients, 231 (5.5%) had Legionella pneumonia. The diagnosis was based on one or more of the following: sputum (41 cases), antigenuria (206) and serology (98). Daily rainfall average was 0.556 liters/m² in the Legionella pneumonia group vs. 0.328 liters/m² for non-Legionella pneumonia cases (p = 0.04). A ROC curve was plotted to compare the incidence of Legionella pneumonia and the weighted median rainfall. The cut-off point was 0.42 (AUC 0.54). Patients who were admitted to hospital with a prior weighted median rainfall higher than 0.42 were more likely to have Legionella pneumonia (OR 1.35; 95% CI 1.02–1.78; p = .03). Spearman Rho correlations revealed a relationship between Legionella pneumonia and rainfall average during each two-week reporting period (0.14; p = 0.003). No relationship was found between rainfall average and non-Legionella pneumonia cases (−0.06; p = 0.24). As a conclusion, rainfall is a significant risk factor for sporadic Legionella pneumonia. Physicians should carefully consider Legionella pneumonia when selecting diagnostic tests and antimicrobial therapy for patients presenting with CAP after periods of rainfall.     

Maternal Parity and the Risk of Congenital Heart Defects in Offspring: A Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Epidemiological Observational Studies

Background

Epidemiological studies have reported conflicting results regarding maternal parity and the risk of congenital heart defects (CHDs). However, a meta-analysis of the association between maternal parity and CHDs in offspring has not been conducted.

Methods

We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE for articles catalogued between their inception and March 8, 2014; we identified relevant published studies that assessed the association between maternal parity and CHD risk. Two authors independently assessed the eligibility of the retrieved articles and extracted data from them. Study-specific relative risk estimates were pooled by random-effects or fixed-effects models. From the 11272 references, a total of 16 case-control studies and 3 cohort studies were enrolled in this meta-analysis.

Results

The overall relative risk of CHD in parous versus nulliparous women was 1.01 (95% CI, 0.97–1.06; Q = 32.34; P = 0.006; I² = 53.6%). Furthermore, we observed a significant association between the highest versus lowest parity number, with an overall RR = 1.20 (95% CI, 1.10–1.31; (Q = 74.61, P<0.001, I² = 82.6%). A dose–response analysis also indicated a positive effect of maternal parity on CHD risk, and the overall increase in relative risk per one live birth was 1.06 (95% CI, 1.02–1.09); Q = 68.09; P<0.001; I² = 80.9%). We conducted stratified and meta-regression analyses to identify the origin of the heterogeneity among studies. A Galbraith plot was created to graphically assess the sources of heterogeneity.

Conclusion

In summary, this meta-analysis provided a robust estimate of the positive association between maternal parity and risk of CHD.     

The 677C>T (rs1801133) Polymorphism in the MTHFR Gene Contributes to Colorectal Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis Based on 71 Research Studies

Background

The 677C>T polymorphism of methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) gene is considered to have a significant effect on colorectal cancer susceptibility, but the results are inconsistent. In order to investigate the association between the MTHFR 677C>T polymorphism and the risk of colorectal cancer, a meta-analysis was held based on 71 published studies.

Methods

Eligible studies were identified through searching the MEDLINE, EMBASE, PubMed, Web of Science, Chinese Biomedical Literature database (CBM) and CNKI database. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to assess the association. The statistical heterogeneity across studies was examined with x²-based Q-test. Begg''s and Egger''s test were also carried out to evaluate publication bias. Sensitive and subgroup analysis were also held in this meta-analysis.

Results

Overall, 71 publications including 31,572 cases and 44,066 controls were identified. The MTHFR 677 C>T variant genotypes are significantly associated with increased risk of colorectal cancer. In the stratified analysis by ethnicity, significantly increased risks were also found among Caucasians for CC vs TT (OR = 1.076; 95%CI =  1.008–1.150; I² = 52.3%), CT vs TT (OR = 1.102; 95%CI = 1.032–1.177; I² = 51.4%) and dominant model (OR = 1.086; 95%CI = 1.021–1.156; I² = 53.6%). Asians for CC vs TT (OR  = 1.226; 95%CI  = 1.116–1.346; I²  = 55.3%), CT vs TT (OR  = 1.180; 95%CI  = 1.079–1.291; I²  = 36.2%), recessive (OR  = 1.069; 95%CI  = 1.003-1.140; I²  = 30.9%) and dominant model (OR  = 1.198; 95%CI  = 1.101-1.303; I²  = 52.4%), and Mixed populations for CT vs TT (OR  = 1.142; 95%CI  = 1.005-1.296; I²  = 0.0%). However, no associations were found in Africans for all genetic models.

Conclusion

This meta-analysis suggests that the MTHFR 677C>T polymorphism increases the risk for developing colorectal cancer, while there is no association among Africans found in subgroup analysis by ethnicity.     

A Winter Distribution Model for Bicknell’s Thrush (Catharus bicknelli), a Conservation Tool for a Threatened Migratory Songbird

Conservation planning and implementation require identifying pertinent habitats and locations where protection and management may improve viability of targeted species. The winter range of Bicknell’s Thrush (Catharus bicknelli), a threatened Nearctic-Neotropical migratory songbird, is restricted to the Greater Antilles. We analyzed winter records from the mid-1970s to 2009 to quantitatively evaluate winter distribution and habitat selection. Additionally, we conducted targeted surveys in Jamaica (n = 433), Cuba (n = 363), Dominican Republic (n = 1,000), Haiti (n = 131) and Puerto Rico (n = 242) yielding 179 sites with thrush presence. We modeled Bicknell’s Thrush winter habitat selection and distribution in the Greater Antilles in Maxent version 3.3.1. using environmental predictors represented in 30 arc second study area rasters. These included nine landform, land cover and climatic variables that were thought a priori to have potentially high predictive power. We used the average training gain from ten model runs to select the best subset of predictors. Total winter precipitation, aspect and land cover, particularly broadleaf forests, emerged as important variables. A five-variable model that contained land cover, winter precipitation, aspect, slope, and elevation was the most parsimonious and not significantly different than the models with more variables. We used the best fitting model to depict potential winter habitat. Using the 10 percentile threshold (>0.25), we estimated winter habitat to cover 33,170 km², nearly 10% of the study area. The Dominican Republic contained half of all potential habitat (51%), followed by Cuba (15.1%), Jamaica (13.5%), Haiti (10.6%), and Puerto Rico (9.9%). Nearly one-third of the range was found to be in protected areas. By providing the first detailed predictive map of Bicknell’s Thrush winter distribution, our study provides a useful tool to prioritize and direct conservation planning for this and other wet, broadleaf forest specialists in the Greater Antilles.