未来气候变化情景下的中国种子植物受威胁等级评估

未来气候变化是全球生物多样性面临的重要威胁之一,给全球生物多样性维持和生态系统稳定带来了巨大挑战.为降低生物灭绝风险并维持生态系统稳定,优先保护受威胁物种成为全球生物多样性保护的共识,而完善的受威胁物种名录对生物多样性保护有基石意义.本研究基于28450种中国种子植物(约占中国种子总数的82.3%)的10 km×10 km分布数据,通过物种分布模型预测了这些物种的未来分布区并计算了其未来分布区面积的变化;进而基于IUCN红色名录A3c的判断标准,评估了受未来气候变化情景下的种子植物受威胁等级;整合本文的评估结果和现有受威胁物种名录,提出了新的中国种子植物受威胁等级和名录.更新后的受威胁名录共包含34550种中国种子植物(约为现有全部中国种子植物).在3种未来气候变化情景(SSP126, SSP245和SSP585)和3种物种扩散情景(完全扩散、每10年扩散20 km和不扩散)下,受威胁种子植物数量为4444～11467种,占中国种子植物总数的12.9%～33.2%;其中木本植物1878～4330种,占全部木本植物总数的14.8～34.1%.草本植物2566～7137种,占全部草本植物总...     

中国植物受威胁等级评估系统概述

濒危物种保护是生物多样性保护工作的重要组成部分, 而物种受威胁等级评估则是濒危物种保护的方向指引。经过多年的发展, 物种受威胁等级的评估由定性评估逐渐向定量评估为主、定性评估为辅的方向发展。本文综述了国内植物受威胁等级定量评估系统的研究进展, 同时介绍了国外较为成熟的IUCN红色名录评估系统、CITES评估系统、美国自然保育协会评估系统, 提出未来制定受威胁物种定量评估标准时要兼顾以下方面: (1)等级设置定义要明确、统一且合理; (2)评估标准应该定量化、客观且不冗余; (3)评估系统应该适应不同地理范围, 最好能同时表达出各范围的受威胁等级; (4)评估指标要包含物种动态信息, 能定量分析物种在过去或者未来的变化。此外, 本文认为国内的物种受威胁等级定量评估系统应该形成规范化的大纲, 加大宣传力度, 尽量将理论研究与具体的保护行动结合起来; 同时, 我国还应该采用全球广泛应用的受威胁等级评估系统获取物种受威胁等级, 将国内生物多样性保护工作纳入到全球范围中去。     

IUCN受威胁物种红色名录进展及应用

IUCN受威胁物种红色名录已经成为世界上最全面的关于全球动物、真菌和植物物种灭绝风险状况的信息来源, 是生物多样性健康的关键指标, 是促进生物多样性保护和决策的有力工具。本文全面介绍IUCN受威胁物种红色名录(简称IUCN红色名录)的发展以及应用状况, 积极推动其在中国的物种评估和广泛应用。总结了IUCN红色名录从依赖于评估专家的主观意志决定物种濒危等级的濒危物种红皮书(Red Data Book)到IUCN受威胁物种等级和标准(3.1版)的客观量化和所有门类使用统一标准的过程。该等级体系可囊括全球所有物种, 其中“受威胁”的3个等级——极危(CR)、濒危(EN)或易危(VU)需使用5个标准进行量化评估, 对评估规范有非常严格的要求。该等级和标准体系不仅适用于全球层面, 同样也适用于地区层面物种评估, 只是在具体物种种群如果和周边其他地区(国家)存在种群交流情况时, 评估结果要进行调整。迄今为止, 全球层面使用该等级体系和标准评估了14万多种(其中在中国有分布的物种10,846种), 100多个国家和地方制定了地区/国家层面的红色名录, 中国红色名录评估了5.5万多种。IUCN红色名录已广泛应用于评估生物多样性变化速度; 为保护规划提供决策信息; 支持履行国际公约、修订国家/地区重点保护物种名录和自然保护地管理等; 指导资源有效合理分配和宣传教育等。广泛应用过程中, 讨论主要集中在获取数据的方法改进上; 另外, 一方面有专家认为标准存在缺陷需要完善, 另一方面有呼吁维持标准的长期相对稳定, 以便进行跨时间、跨区域、跨物种门类的比较。本文提出来了中国红色名录的持续机制和应用建议, 包括建立中国红色名录委员会、建立中国红色名录专业网站、发展评估专家队伍、建立中国红色名录评估更新机制, 以及加强国际协作、促进全球和中国红色名录的应用和发展。     

生态系统受威胁等级的评估标准和方法

生态系统受威胁等级评估是认识生物多样性丧失的重要手段.在2008年的第四次世界自然保护大会上,国际自然保护联盟(IUCN)成立专门工作组,着手建立类似于物种灭绝风险的定量评估方法,对生态系统受威胁等级进行评估.最终的目标是在局地、区域和全球尺度上确定生态系统的受威胁等级,建立生态系统红色名录.在制定生物多样性保护策略时,生态系统红色名录与物种红色名录可作为互补.目前,生态系统受威胁等级评估方案的评估依据包括4类:生态系统分布或生态系统功能短期衰退;生态系统分布或生态系统功能长期衰退;生态系统当前的分布狭窄、同时生态系统分布或生态系统功能衰退;生态系统当前的分布极狭窄.应用Rodríguez等(2011)建立的评估标准,基于文献记载的中国辽河三角洲4个生态系统1988年和2006年的面积,我们详细介绍了生态系统受威胁等级的评估过程.目前的评估方法面临挑战,生态系统分布范围和占有面积的估计应基于合理的空间尺度,同时还需建立合理的方法定量描述生态系统功能的变化.生态系统受威胁等级评估方案将提交2012年召开的世界自然保护大会讨论.     

物种分布模型在大型真菌红色名录评估及保护中的应用: 以冬虫夏草为例

我国大型真菌资源丰富, 由于受气候变化和人类活动等的影响, 近年来很多物种受到不同程度的威胁, 亟待保护。红色名录评估是物种保护的第一步, 为有效保护我国大型真菌多样性, 2016年生态环境部和中国科学院联合启动中国大型真菌红色名录评估项目。合理的评估依赖于完善的物种地理分布、种群数量规模及其动态变化信息。大型真菌评估信息较少, 需要引入新的方法解决评估信息不足的问题。冬虫夏草(Ophiocordyceps sinensis)是一种重要的食药用菌, 具有较高的经济价值, 受到全世界的广泛关注, 评估信息相对充足, 此次被评为易危物种。利用物种分布模型对冬虫夏草未来分布区变化的预测在评估过程中发挥了重要作用。为了将物种分布模型分析方法引入大型真菌的受威胁等级评估, 本文以此前我们利用物种分布模型预测冬虫夏草的潜在分布区及其对气候变化响应的研究为例, 介绍了应用物种分布模型预测大型真菌的潜在分布区、未来气候变化情景下分布区变化趋势的方法和流程, 以及在应用中可能存在的问题和解决方案。通过本文的分析, 我们认为物种分布模型在大型真菌的红色名录评估和保护中具有重要的应用潜力, 值得推广应用。     

本底资源不清严重制约我国杜鹃花属植物的生物多样性保护

中国杜鹃花属植物已超过600种,是世界杜鹃花属的现代分布中心和分化中心之一。本文以杜鹃花红色名录、中国高等植物红色名录以及中国高等植物受威胁物种名录为基础,对我国杜鹃花的濒危现状进行分析,并根据极度濒危杜鹃花的最新调查结果,结合IUCN红色名录和极小种群野生植物标准对它们进行重新评估。评估结果认为,杜鹃花属12个极度濒危物种中,有4个物种降低了极度濒危的等级,1个物种数据缺乏,1个物种灭绝。我国杜鹃花属植物濒危种类近20%,数据缺乏的种类近1/3,资源本底不清,严重威胁我国杜鹃花的生物多样性保护。未来应加强对杜鹃花本底资源的普查,开展极度濒危物种和极小种群物种的“抢救性保护”、加强园林应用与基础研究。     

本底资源不清严重制约我国杜鹃花属植物的生物多样性保护

中国杜鹃花属植物已超过600种,是世界杜鹃花属的现代分布中心和分化中心之一。本文以杜鹃花红色名录、中国高等植物红色名录以及中国高等植物受威胁物种名录为基础,对我国杜鹃花的濒危现状进行分析,并根据极度濒危杜鹃花的最新调查结果,结合IUCN红色名录和极小种群野生植物标准对它们进行重新评估。评估结果认为,杜鹃花属12个极度濒危物种中,有4个物种降低了极度濒危的等级,1个物种数据缺乏,1个物种灭绝。我国杜鹃花属植物濒危种类近20%,数据缺乏的种类近1/3,资源本底不清,严重威胁我国杜鹃花的生物多样性保护。未来应加强对杜鹃花本底资源的普查,开展极度濒危物种和极小种群物种的“抢救性保护”、加强园林应用与基础研究。     

基于标本和分布信息评估中国虾脊兰属 植物的濒危状况

兰科植物是生物多样性保护的旗舰类群之一, 但如何客观准确地评估兰科植物的濒危状况, 一直是生物多样性保护中急需解决的问题。本文以中国虾脊兰属(Calanthe)植物为例, 探讨了基于馆藏标本和野外分布信息进行兰科植物红色名录濒危等级评估的利弊。我们的研究表明, 馆藏标本能够比较客观地反映物种地理分布信息和相应的野外居群状况, 但对于物种分布的历史变化和受威胁因素反映不足; 而野外工作对于物种的实际分布状况和受威胁因素等的反映比较客观, 但能发现的物种和居群数量有限, 部分极小种群物种在短时间野外工作中很难发现。我们的研究认为, 有2种虾脊兰属植物应被评估为野外灭绝(EW), 16种应被评估为极度濒危(CR)。可见, 中国虾脊兰属植物濒危的状况远比前人的评估结果要严重得多。     

云南被子植物菊类分支的系统发育多样性及其分布格局

全球气候变化与人为活动等因素导致的生物多样性丧失,引起了全球各界对生物多样性保护的高度关注。传统生物多样性保护主要对物种、特有种、受威胁物种的种类组成及其分布模式开展研究,忽视了进化历史在生物多样性保护中的作用。云南是全球生物多样性热点地区的交汇区,生物多样性的保护历来受到广泛关注,为了更好地探讨云南生物多样性的保护措施,该研究以云南被子植物菊类分支物种为研究对象,基于物种间的演化关系,结合其地理分布,从进化历史的角度探讨物种、特有种、受威胁物种的种类组成及系统发育组成的分布格局,并整合自然保护地的空间分布,识别生物多样性的重点保护区域。结果表明:云南被子植物菊类分支的物种、特有种及受威胁物种的物种密度与系统发育多样性均显著正相关; 通过零模型分析发现,由南向北标准化系统发育多样性逐渐降低; 云南南部、东南部、西北部是云南被子植物菊类分支的重点保护区域,加强这些区域的保护,将最大化地保护生物多样性的进化历史和进化潜能。由此可见,融合进化历史信息的植物多样性格局分析不仅有助于更加深入地理解植物多样性的形成与演变,也为生物多样性保护策略的制定提供更多的思路。     

海南岛淡水蟹类分布格局与多样性保护

热带岛屿生物多样性是全球生物多样性保护研究的热点之一。海南岛是中国面积最大的热带岛屿, 丰富独特的淡水蟹类是维持岛内淡水生态系统功能完整性的关键类群。本文通过多年野外调查, 综合历史及最新文献资料, 对海南岛淡水蟹类物种多样性及其现状进行调查和评估, 并对淡水蟹类物种多样性保护现状进行了分析讨论。研究发现, 海南岛淡水蟹类物种多样性分布中心位于中南部山地, 主要集中于中部的霸王岭、鹦哥岭和猕猴岭, 南部的五指山和吊罗山, 以及西南部的尖峰岭一带。其物种多样性整体上呈现中南部山地高、平原台地低的特点。根据《IUCN物种红色名录濒危等级和标准》对海南岛淡水蟹类物种现状的评估结果显示, 全岛受威胁淡水蟹类物种的占比为16.7%。基于分布区预测, 以海南热带雨林国家公园为主体的保护地对淡水蟹类潜在适宜分布区的覆盖度明显优于此前碎片化的各级保护区。本文研究结果显示, 海南岛淡水蟹类的总体生存状况良好, 但一部分山地或平原种类处于受胁状态。国家公园体制的建立有望为岛内淡水蟹类物种多样性保护提供前所未有的机遇。基于物种多样性分布格局开展淡水蟹类等淡水生物多样性监测, 有助于促进海南岛淡水生态系统完整性的长效保护与可持续发展。     

Surrogate species protection in Bolivia under climate and land cover change scenarios

The Amazon rainforest covers more than 60% of Bolivia’s lowlands, providing habitat for many endemic and threatened species. Bolivia has the highest rates of deforestation of the Amazon biome, which degrades and fragments species habitat. Anthropogenic habitat changes could be exacerbated by climate change, and therefore, developing relevant strategies for biodiversity protection under global change scenarios is a necessary step in conservation planning.In this research we used multi-species umbrella concept to evaluate the degree of habitat impacts due to climate and land cover change in Bolivia. We used species distribution modeling to map three focal species (Jaguar, Lowland Tapir and Lesser Anteater) and assessed current protected area network effectiveness under future climate and land cover change scenarios for 2050.The studied focal species will lose between 70% and 83% of their ranges under future climate and land-cover change scenarios, decreasing the level of protection to 10% of their original ranges. Existing protected area network should be reconsidered to maintain current and future biodiversity habitats.     

Conservation of Chinese Theaceae species under future climate and land use changes

Aim

Climate and land use changes are two major pervasive and growing global causes of rapid changes in the distribution patterns of biodiversity, challenging the future effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), which were mainly designed based on a static view of biodiversity. Therefore, evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas for protecting the species threatened by climate and land use change is critical for future biodiversity conservation.

Location

China.

Methods

Here, using distributions of 200 Chinese Theaceae species and ensemble species distribution models, we identified species threatened by future climate and land use change (i.e. species with predicted loss of suitable habitat ≥30%) under scenarios incorporating climate change, land use change and dispersal. We then estimate the richness distribution patterns of threatened species and identify priority conservation areas and conservation gaps of the current PA network.

Results

Our results suggest that 36.30%–51.85% of Theaceae species will be threatened by future climate and land use conditions and that although the threatened species are mainly distributed at low latitudes in China under both current and future periods, the mean richness of the threatened species per grid cell will decline by 0.826–3.188 species by the 2070s. Moreover, we found that these priority conservation areas are highly fragmented and that the current PA network only covers 14.21%–20.87% of the ‘areas worth exploring’ and 6.91%–7.91% of the ‘areas worth attention’.

Main Conclusions

Our findings highlight the necessity of establishing new protected areas and ecological corridors in priority conservation areas to protect the threatened species. Moreover, our findings also highlight the importance of taking into consideration the potential threatened species under future climate and land use conditions when designating priority areas for biodiversity conservation.     

Integration of hotspot identification,gap analysis,and niche modeling supports the conservation of Chinese threatened higher plants

A significant fraction of higher plants in China are threatened due to dramatic landscape transformation and increasing climate change. However, the conservation effectiveness of threatened higher plants (THPs) and their response to climate change are still underexplored to date. Based on the latest list of THPs in China, we obtained 102 593 occurrence records with latitude and longitude for 3858 THPs. By integrating the distribution patterns of three biodiversity indexes (i.e., species richness, species complementarity, and weighted endemism) and 10 plant categories, we identified hotspots for THPs and calculated the conservation effectiveness of nature reserves. We then selected 1959 THPs to project the shift of species richness and range sizes under climate change (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 2.6 and RCP 8.5). In total, 16 hotspot areas covering 7.38% of Chinese land area and containing 91.73% of THPs were identified. Current nature reserves protected 35.05% of hotspots, 73.07% of all THPs, and 56.64% of narrow-ranged species. By the 2070s, the species richness of THPs were predicted to decrease in Southeast and Central China, and 42.42% (RCP 2.6) and 51.40% (RCP 8.5) of the 1959 THPs would confront habitat contraction. Future conservation efforts should focus on the conservation gaps and carry out targeted conservation for THPs with narrow distribution range. In order to cope with climate change, the hotspots with relatively low species loss can serve as important areas to contain current species diversity and the areas with high species gain offer opportunities for ex-situ conservation of THPs.     

Predicting co-distribution patterns of parrots and woody plants under global changes: The case of the Lilac-crowned Amazon and Neotropical dry forests

Global climate and land-use changes are the most significant causes of the current habitat loss and biodiversity crisis. Although there is information measuring these global changes, we lack a full understanding of how they impact community assemblies and species interactions across ecosystems. Herein, we assessed the potential distribution of eight key woody plant species associated with the habitat of the endangered Lilac-crowned Amazon (Amazon finschi) under global changes scenarios (2050′s and 2070′s), to answer the following questions: (1) how do predicted climate and land-use changes impact these species’ individual distributions and co-distribution patterns?; and (2) how effective is the existing Protected Area network for safeguarding the parrot species, the plant species, and their biological interactions? Our projections were consistent identifying the species that are most vulnerable to climate change. The distribution ranges of most of the species tended to decrease under future climates. These effects were strongly exacerbated when incorporating land-use changes into models. Even within existing protected areas, >50 % of the species’ remaining distribution and sites with the highest plant richness were predicted to be lost in the future under these combined scenarios. Currently, both individual species ranges and sites of highest richness of plants, shelter a high proportion (ca. 40 %) of the Lilac-crowned Amazon distribution. However, this spatial congruence could be reduced in the future, potentially disrupting the ecological associations among these taxa. We provide novel evidence for decision-makers to enhance conservation efforts to attain the long-term protection of this endangered Mexican endemic parrot and its habitat.     

Future battlegrounds for conservation under global change

Global biodiversity is under significant threat from the combined effects of human-induced climate and land-use change. Covering 12% of the Earth's terrestrial surface, protected areas are crucial for conserving biodiversity and supporting ecological processes beneficial to human well-being, but their selection and design are usually uninformed about future global change. Here, we quantify the exposure of the global reserve network to projected climate and land-use change according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and set these threats in relation to the conservation value and capacity of biogeographic and geopolitical regions. We find that geographical patterns of past human impact on the land cover only poorly predict those of forecasted change, thus revealing the inadequacy of existing global conservation prioritization templates. Projected conservation risk, measured as regional levels of land-cover change in relation to area protected, is the greatest at high latitudes (due to climate change) and tropics/subtropics (due to land-use change). Only some high-latitude nations prone to high conservation risk are also of high conservation value, but their high relative wealth may facilitate additional conservation efforts. In contrast, most low-latitude nations tend to be of high conservation value, but they often have limited capacity for conservation which may exacerbate the global biodiversity extinction crisis. While our approach will clearly benefit from improved land-cover projections and a thorough understanding of how species range will shift under climate change, our results provide a first global quantitative demonstration of the urgent need to consider future environmental change in reserve-based conservation planning. They further highlight the pressing need for new reserves in target regions and support a much extended 'north-south' transfer of conservation resources that maximizes biodiversity conservation while mitigating global climate change.     

Climate change promotes transitions to tall evergreen vegetation in tropical Asia

Vegetation in tropical Asia is highly diverse due to large environmental gradients and heterogeneity of landscapes. This biodiversity is threatened by intense land use and climate change. However, despite the rich biodiversity and the dense human population, tropical Asia is often underrepresented in global biodiversity assessments. Understanding how climate change influences the remaining areas of natural vegetation is therefore highly important for conservation planning. Here, we used the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model version 2 (aDGVM2) to simulate impacts of climate change and elevated CO₂ on vegetation formations in tropical Asia for an ensemble of climate change scenarios. We used climate forcing from five different climate models for representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We found that vegetation in tropical Asia will remain a carbon sink until 2099, and that vegetation biomass increases of up to 28% by 2099 are associated with transitions from small to tall woody vegetation and from deciduous to evergreen vegetation. Patterns of phenology were less responsive to climate change and elevated CO₂ than biomes and biomass, indicating that the selection of variables and methods used to detect vegetation changes is crucial. Model simulations revealed substantial variation within the ensemble, both in biomass increases and in distributions of different biome types. Our results have important implications for management policy, because they suggest that large ensembles of climate models and scenarios are required to assess a wide range of potential future trajectories of vegetation change and to develop robust management plans. Furthermore, our results highlight open ecosystems with low tree cover as most threatened by climate change, indicating potential conflicts of interest between biodiversity conservation in open ecosystems and active afforestation to enhance carbon sequestration.     

The key elements of a comprehensive global mammal conservation strategy

A global strategy is necessary to achieve the level of coordination, synergy and therefore optimization of resources to achieve the broad goal of conserving mammals worldwide. Key elements for the development of such a strategy include: an institutional subject that owns the strategy; broad conservation goals, quantitative targets derived from them and appropriate indicators; data on the distribution of species, their threats, the cost-effectiveness of conservation actions; and a set of methods for the identification of conservation priorities. Previous global mammal research investigated phylogeny, extinction risk, and the species and areas that should be regarded as global conservation priorities. This theme issue presents new key elements: an updated Red List Index, a new list of evolutionarily distinct and globally endangered species, new high-resolution mammal distribution models, a global connectivity analysis and scenarios of future mammal distribution based on climate and land-cover change. Area prioritization schemes account for mammalian phylogeny, governance and cost-benefit of measures to abate habitat loss. Three discussion papers lay the foundations for the development of a global unifying mammal conservation strategy, which should not be further deterred by the knowledge gaps still existing.     

Conservation of Portuguese red-listed bryophytes species in Portugal: Promoting a shift in perspective on climate changes

Knowledge of bryophyte diversity can be an important tool for identifying overall biodiversity hotspots. The distribution of red-listed species is an essential data for biodiversity conservation actions, and the assessment of species' response to climate change scenarios is also a key tool in future conservation strategies. In this study, we examine the response of four phytogeographic assemblages of all Portuguese red-listed bryophytes whose distributions are well documented in Portugal. The red-listed species were selected based on their vulnerability as listed in the new Atlas and Red Data book of Portuguese bryophytes according to the IUCN criteria. The main purpose of this study is to develop predictive distributions of threatened bryophytes grouped according to phytogeographic trends aiming to conserve this bryoflora in future. This is achieved by the identification of relationships between specimens' distributions and environmental ecologically meaningful data, which is known to influence different phytogeographic assemblages. Significant differences were found in all distribution models based on future climate scenarios. Several variables play a vital role in the species' distribution models in present and future environmental conditions.     

Climate change‐induced migration patterns and extinction risks of Theaceae species in China

Theaceae, an economically important angiosperm family, is widely distributed in tropical and subtropical forests in Asia. In China, Theaceae has particularly high abundances and endemism, comprising ~75% of the total genera and ~46% of the total species worldwide. Therefore, predicting the response of Theaceae species to climate change is vital. In this study, we collected distribution data for 200 wild Theaceae species in China, and predicted their distribution patterns under current and future climactic conditions by species distribution modeling (SDM). We revealed that Theaceae species richness is highest in southeastern China and on Hainan Island, reaching its highest value (137 species) in Fujian Province. According to the IUCN Red List criteria for assessing species threat levels under two dispersal assumptions (no dispersal and full dispersal), we evaluated the conservation status of all Theaceae species by calculating loss of suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We predicted that nine additional species will become threatened due to climate change in the future; one species will be classified as critically endangered (CR), two as endangered (EN), and six as vulnerable (VU). Given their extinction risks associated with climate change, we recommended that these species be added to the Red List. Our investigation of migration patterns revealed regional differences in the number of emigrant, immigrant, and persistent species, indicating the need for targeted conservation strategies. Regions containing numerous emigrants are concentrated in Northern Taiwan and coastal regions of Zhejiang and Fujian provinces, while regions containing numerous immigrants include central Sichuan Province, the southeastern Tibet Autonomous Region, southwest Yunnan Province, northwest Sichuan Province, and the junction of Guangxi and Hunan provinces. Lastly, regions containing persistent species are widely distributed in southern China. Importantly, regions with high species turnover are located on the northern border of the entire Theaceae species distribution ranges owing to upwards migration; these regions are considered most sensitive to climate change and conservation planning should therefore be prioritized here. This study will contribute valuable information for reducing the negative impacts of climate change on Theaceae species, which will ultimately improve biodiversity conservation efficiency.     

Climate change and the potential distribution of an invasive shrub, Lantana camara L

The threat posed by invasive species, in particular weeds, to biodiversity may be exacerbated by climate change. Lantana camara L. (lantana) is a woody shrub that is highly invasive in many countries of the world. It has a profound economic and environmental impact worldwide, including Australia. Knowledge of the likely potential distribution of this invasive species under current and future climate will be useful in planning better strategies to manage the invasion. A process-oriented niche model of L. camara was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including phenological observations and geographic distribution records. The potential distribution of lantana under historical climate exceeded the current distribution in some areas of the world, notably Africa and Asia. Under future scenarios, the climatically suitable areas for L. camara globally were projected to contract. However, some areas were identified in North Africa, Europe and Australia that may become climatically suitable under future climates. In South Africa and China, its potential distribution could expand further inland. These results can inform strategic planning by biosecurity agencies, identifying areas to target for eradication or containment. Distribution maps of risk of potential invasion can be useful tools in public awareness campaigns, especially in countries that have been identified as becoming climatically suitable for L. camara under the future climate scenarios.