Estimation of walrus populations on sea ice with infrared imagery and aerial photography

Population sizes of ice‐associated pinnipeds have often been estimated with visual or photographic aerial surveys, but these methods require relatively slow speeds and low altitudes, limiting the area they can cover. Recent developments in infrared imagery and its integration with digital photography could allow substantially larger areas to be surveyed and more accurate enumeration of individuals, thereby solving major problems with previous survey methods. We conducted a trial survey in April 2003 to estimate the number of Pacific walruses (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) hauled out on sea ice around St. Lawrence Island, Alaska. The survey used high altitude infrared imagery to detect groups of walruses on strip transects. Low altitude digital photography was used to determine the number of walruses in a sample of detected groups and calibrate the infrared imagery for estimating the total number of walruses. We propose a survey design incorporating this approach with satellite radio telemetry to estimate the proportion of the population in the water and additional low‐level flights to estimate the proportion of the hauled‐out population in groups too small to be detected in the infrared imagery. We believe that this approach offers the potential for obtaining reliable population estimates for walruses and other ice‐associated pinnipeds.     

Playback point counts and N-mixture models suggest higher than expected abundance of the critically endangered blond titi monkey in northeastern Brazil

Effective management of threatened species requires accurate population size estimation and monitoring. However, reliable population size estimates are lacking for many endangered species. The critically endangered blond titi monkey (Callicebus barbarabrownae) is an endemic primate of the Caatinga biome in Northeastern Brazil. A previous assessment based on presence-only data estimated a minimum population size of 260 mature individuals in 2,636 km², and studies based on visual records suggested very low local relative abundance. However, this cryptic species is known to be difficult to visually detect. We played back recordings of C. barbarabrownae loud calls to count the number of responding groups in 34 sampling sites during 9 consecutive days in a 221-km² study area. Repeated group counts at sites were used in N-mixture models, which account for imperfect detection, to estimate the number of groups in relation to dry forest area and distance to villages. We estimated a total of 91 groups in the study area. Considering the mean number of adults per group as three, we estimated a population of 273 adult individuals, resulting in a density of 2.3 individuals/km² in the dry forest habitat. Detection probability was four times higher for surveys conducted between sunrise to midmorning than between midmorning to sunset. We also found that C. barbarabrownae abundance increases with increasing dry forest area and increasing distance to the nearest village, indicating the need to promote dry forest restoration in the Caatinga. As our results suggest a larger population of C. barbarabrownae than had been previously estimated for its entire distribution, our results suggest a need for similar assessments in other areas to reliably estimate the total population size. This study demonstrates how playback surveys coupled with N-mixture models can be used to estimate population sizes of acoustically-responsive primates, and thus contribute to more effective conservation management.     

Bayesian methods for multiple capture-recapture surveys

To estimate the total size of a closed population, a multiple capture-recapture sampling design can be used. This sampling design has been used traditionally to estimate the size of wildlife populations and is becoming more widely used to estimate the size of hard-to-count human populations. This paper presents Bayesian methods for obtaining point and interval estimates from data gathered from capture-recapture surveys. A numerical example involving the estimation of the size of a fish population is given to illustrate the methods.     

Distribution and population estimate for the chacma baboon (Papio ursinus) in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

We report the current species distribution and population estimate for the chacma baboon (Papio ursinus) in KwaZulu-Natal Province (KZN), South Africa, based on an analysis of estimated area of occupancy and estimated home range size. This estimate suggests a total population size of approximately 11,000 individuals for KZN. Much of the province is uninhabited, with a density in occupied areas of approximately 1.8 animals per km(2). The current population size may be more than an order of magnitude smaller than historical population size. Chacma baboons now exhibit a highly fragmented and discontinuous distribution in KZN, with 58% of the population residing within protected areas, and more than half of these troops reside in areas >1,500?m above average sea level. The small population and highly fragmented distribution of chacma baboons in KZN, combined with rapidly increasing human population size and transformation of natural habitat, suggest this species requires greater conservation attention.     

Using sample aerial surveys to estimate the abundance of the endangered Grevy’s zebra in northern Kenya

The effective management of endangered mammals requires reliable estimates of population size. This is challenging for species such as Grevy’s zebra (Equus grevyi) that are distributed over large areas at low densities. Less than 2500 Grevy’s zebra remain in the wild, scattered across 85,000 km² of savannah in northern Kenya and Ethiopia. An efficient, accurate and repeatable survey method is required to guide conservation planning for the species. Currently, total aerial counts are used to census endangered species within Kenya, but are costly in terms of resources. In this study, we evaluated the suitability of sample survey methods for Grevy’s zebra. We estimated population size using sample aerial counts for a known population of Grevy’s zebra in Lewa Wildlife Conservancy (LWC), providing the opportunity to test the accuracy of sample methods, while comparing resource costs with total count methods. We sampled one‐third of LWC using parallel 500‐ m strip transects at 1500‐ m intervals. The population estimate was comparable to the known population size and was less than half as expensive as the equivalent total count survey. Our results suggest sample aerial surveys provide an accurate and cost‐effective means of monitoring Grevy’s zebra and other endangered species in open habitats.     

Mist Net Effort Required to Inventory a Forest Bat Species Assemblage

Abstract: Little quantitative information exists about the survey effort necessary to inventory temperate bat species assemblages. We used a bootstrap resampling algorithm to estimate the number of mist net surveys required to capture individuals from 9 species at both study area and site levels using data collected in a forested watershed in northwestern California, USA, during 1996–2000. The mean number of simulated surveys required to capture individual species varied with species' rarity and ranged from 1.5 to 44.9. We retrospectively evaluated strategies to reduce required survey effort by subsampling data from 1996 to 1998 and tested the strategies in the field during 1999 and 2000. Using data from 1996 to 1998, the mean number of simulated surveys required to capture 8 out of 9 species was 26.3, but a 95% probability of capture required >61 surveys. Inventory efficiency, defined as the cumulative proportion of species detected per survey effort, improved for both the study area and individual sites by conducting surveys later in summer. We realized further improvements in study area inventory efficiency by focusing on productive sites. We found that 3 surveys conducted between 1 July and 10 September at each of 4 productive sites in this 10-km² study area resulted in the capture of 8 species annually. Quantitative estimation of the survey effort required to assess bat species occurrence improves the ability to plan and execute reliable, efficient inventories. Results from our study should be useful for planning inventories in nearby geographical areas and similar habitat types; further, the analytical methods we used to assess effort are broadly applicable to other survey methods and taxa.     

A sampling procedure for quantifying mites in soybeans

To control phytophagous mites on soybean crops in an economically viable way, it is necessary to quantify the occurrence of the mites on the leaflets. Estimating the number of mites cm(-2) on leaflets is more difficult because of their irregular distribution on the leaflet surface. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the count-area/leaflet and the number of soybean leaflets to quantify the mites. One hundred infested plants were randomly collected. One leaflet was removed from each plant and divided into 32 sections (1.0 cm(2) per section), arranged in four columns and eight rows, to count the mites (adults, nymphs and eggs). The ideal count-area size per leaflet (Xo) was estimated by the maximum curvature of the coefficient of variation method for each of the 100 leaflets. For a count-area of Xo size, we obtained the number of mites cm(-2) per leaflet and, using the bootstrap resampling method, we estimated the point and interval averages as well as the sample size for a pre-established error. We suggest that the determination of the evaluated area size on each soybean leaflet (20 cm(2) in this case) and the bootstrap resampling estimate of the appropriate number of leaflets (12 in this case) for a bootstrap confidence interval of four mites (adults + nymphs) cm(-2) is sufficient to standardize the sampling-procedures for quantifying mites on soybean leaflets.     

Estimating the Barents Sea polar bear subpopulation size

A large-scale survey was conducted in August 2004 to estimate the size of the Barents Sea polar bear subpopulation. We combined helicopter line transect distance sampling (DS) surveys in most of the survey area with total counts in small areas not suitable for DS. Due to weather constraints we failed to survey some of the areas originally planned to be covered by DS. For those, abundance was estimated using a ratio estimator, in which the auxiliary variable was the number of satellite telemetry fixes (in previous years). We estimated that the Barents Sea subpopulation had approximately 2,650 (95% CI approximately 1,900–3,600) bears. Given current intense interest in polar bear management due to the potentially disastrous effects of climate change, it is surprising that many subpopulation sizes are still unknown. We show here that line transect sampling is a promising method for addressing the need for abundance estimates.     

Camera-trapping density estimates suggest critically low population sizes for the Wet Tropics subspecies of the spotted-tailed quoll (Dasyurus maculatus gracilis)

Accurate estimates of distribution and population density are critical for the management of threatened species. This is particularly pertinent for mammalian predators, whose generally low population density, elusive nature, and large home range requirements make it difficult to detect declines. We aimed to refine population estimates of the northern spotted-tailed quoll (Dasyurus maculatus gracilis) in the Wet Tropics bioregion, to estimate the total number of adults, the likely size of subpopulations across the known distribution of the subspecies, and its associated conservation status. We performed targeted upland camera-trapping surveys from June 2017 to May 2019. To calculate population densities, we used a combination of the number of individuals identified from each survey and the mean maximum distance moved from three life history stages. We then extrapolated these estimates to modelled suitable habitat areas, refined by the camera-trapping surveys. Population sizes for the six defined subpopulations were estimated, and ranged from approximately 5 to 105 individuals. The total population was estimated to be 221 individuals. This total population estimate, and the estimates for each of the subpopulations, are lower than previous published estimates and are cause for concern. Given the low population estimates presented here and unresolved threats driving declines in some subpopulations, we suggest elevation of this subspecies to Critically Endangered under the EPBC Act.     

Aerial surveys give new estimates for orangutans in Sabah, Malaysia

Great apes are threatened with extinction, but precise information about the distribution and size of most populations is currently lacking. We conducted orangutan nest counts in the Malaysian state of Sabah (North Borneo), using a combination of ground and helicopter surveys, and provided a way to estimate the current distribution and size of the populations living throughout the entire state. We show that the number of nests detected during aerial surveys is directly related to the estimated true animal density and that a helicopter is an efficient tool to provide robust estimates of orangutan numbers. Our results reveal that with a total estimated population size of about 11,000 individuals, Sabah is one of the main strongholds for orangutans in North Borneo. More than 60% of orangutans living in the state occur outside protected areas, in production forests that have been through several rounds of logging extraction and are still exploited for timber. The role of exploited forests clearly merits further investigation for orangutan conservation in Sabah.     

Genetic diversity, structure, and size of an endangered brown bear population threatened by highway construction in the Pindos Mountains, Greece

One of the major negative effects of roads is the creation of barriers to the movement of wildlife, ultimately disconnecting populations and increasing extinction risk. We collected genetic data from a threatened brown bear population in the central part of the Pindos mountain range in northwestern Greece to provide information about this, as yet genetically undescribed, population and to evaluate its status prior to the construction of a major highway. We used noninvasive genetic sampling methods and microsatellite analysis to investigate nuclear genetic diversity, population genetic structure, demographic history, relatedness within the population and estimated effective and total population size. Brown bears in the study area were found to possess a relatively high level of nuclear genetic diversity and low levels of inbreeding; the population did not show any signs of substructuring but seems to have gone through a genetic bottleneck in the recent past. The estimated effective population size was 29, and the total population size estimate obtained by two different methods was 33 and 51 individuals, respectively. Our results indicate a good conservation status of this bear population and provide baseline genetic data for the future evaluation of the effects on bears from the construction of a major highway, for monitoring the genetic status of this and other bear populations in Greece and for assessing gene flow in bear populations in southern Europe.     

A Population Estimate for Golden Eagles in the Western United States

ABSTRACT Researchers have suggested golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) populations may be declining in portions of their range. However, there are few baseline data describing golden eagle populations across their range in the western United States. We used aerial line transect distance methodology with a double-observer modification to estimate golden eagle population numbers in 4 bird conservation regions of the western United States. We conducted surveys from 16 August to 8 September 2003, after most golden eagles had fledged and before fall migration. The goal of our sampling strategy was to provide >80% power (α = 0.1) to detect an annual rate of total population change >3% per year over a 20-year period. We observed 172 golden eagles across 148 transects and estimated 27,392 golden eagles (90% CI: 21,352-35,140) occurred in the study area during the late summer and early fall of 2003. Following the surveys, we used Monte Carlo simulation to determine the statistical power to detect trends in the golden eagle populations if yearly surveys were continued over a 20-year monitoring period. The simulation indicated the desired power could be achieved under the current methodology and sample size. The methods utilized in this study can be implemented for other raptor species when population estimates that include nonbreeding members of a population are needed. The results of this study can be utilized by professionals to help manage golden eagle populations and to develop conservation strategies.     

Field surveys of capercaillie (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Tetrao urogallus</Emphasis>) in the Swiss Alps underestimated local abundance of the species as revealed by genetic analyses of non-invasive samples

An increasing number of species are becoming threatened by habitat loss and fragmentation. Therefore, solid estimates of the species’ abundance in the remaining populations are required to develop suitable conservation measures and to monitor their effectiveness. The capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus L.) has experienced a dramatic decline in central Europe and has disappeared from large areas of its former natural range. In Switzerland, the species’ distribution, habitat requirements and demographic status were studied and evaluated in an attempt to support appropriate management decisions to conserve the species. National surveys of the capercaillie in Switzerland have traditionally been obtained from male counts at leks. However, individual attendance to the lek is sex- and age-specific. Thus, male counts at leks may provide a biased estimate of local population sizes. In the present study, we compared two alternative indirect methods to estimate the sizes of local populations at eight study sites situated in the Alps and Prealps of Switzerland. We first assessed the sizes of local populations from the observed density and distribution of direct and indirect evidence of the species’ presence during field surveys. Feather and faeces samples collected during field surveys were genotyped at twelve nuclear microsatellite loci and a sex-specific nuclear gene fragment. Individual genotypes were used as genetic tags to estimate the sizes of the eight local populations using an urn model developed for small populations. The index of local population sizes assessed from field surveys was lower than the number of unique genotypes at each study site, which itself underestimated the abundances of populations in most cases. Based on our results, the genetic tagging method appeared to be less biased than the field survey method. However, an alternative faeces sampling scheme, resulting in 2–3 genotypings per individual, could further improve the accuracy of the size estimates of local populations. Our study confirms that genetic tagging methods are a valuable tool to estimate the sizes of local populations and to monitor the response of rare and elusive species to management actions.     

Evaluation of Bear Rub Surveys to Monitor Grizzly Bear Population Trends

Abstract: Wildlife managers need reliable estimates of population size, trend, and distribution to make informed decisions about how to recover at-risk populations, yet obtaining these estimates is costly and often imprecise. The grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in northwestern Montana, USA, has been managed for recovery since being listed under the United States Endangered Species Act in 1975, yet no rigorous data were available to evaluate the program's success. We used encounter data from 379 grizzly bears identified through bear rub surveys to parameterize a series of Pradel model simulations in Program MARK to assess the ability of noninvasive genetic sampling to estimate population growth rates. We evaluated model performance in terms of 1) power to detect gender-specific and population-wide declines in population abundance, 2) precision and relative bias of growth rate estimates, and 3) sampling effort required to achieve 80% power to detect a decline within 10 years. Simulations indicated that ecosystem-wide, annual bear rub surveys would exceed 80% power to detect a 3% annual decline within 6 years. Robust-design models with 2 simulated surveys per year provided precise and unbiased annual estimates of trend, abundance, and apparent survival. Designs incorporating one survey per year require less sampling effort but only yield trend and apparent survival estimates. Our results suggest that systematic, annual bear rub surveys may provide a viable complement or alternative to telemetry-based methods for monitoring trends in grizzly bear populations.     

Composite analysis of black duck breeding population surveys in eastern North America

Waterfowl are monitored in eastern Canada and the northeastern United States with 2 surveys: a transect survey from fixed-wing aircraft and a plot survey conducted from helicopters. The surveys vary in extent, but overlap exists in a core area of 9 strata covering portions of all provinces from Ontario east to Newfoundland. We estimated population change for American black ducks (Anas rubripes) and mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) from these surveys using a log-linear hierarchical model that accommodates differences in sample design and visibility associated with these survey methods. Using a combined analysis of the surveys based on total indicated birds, we estimate the American black duck population to be 901,700 (95% CI: 715,200–1,274,000) in 2011, with 526,900 (95% CI: 357,500–852,300) mallards in the surveyed area. Precision of estimates varies widely by species and region, with transect surveys providing less precise results than plot surveys for black ducks in areas of overlap. The combined survey analysis for black ducks in the eastern survey region produced estimates with an average yearly coefficient of variation (CV) of 12.1% for the entire area and an average CV of 6.9% in the plot survey area. Mallards, which had a more limited distribution in the region, had an average yearly CV of 22.1% over the entire region, and an average CV of 27.7% in the plot survey area. Hierarchical models provide a rich framework for analyzing and combining results from complex survey designs, providing useful spatial and temporal information on population size and change in these economically important species. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Frequency of M-cadherin-stained satellite cells declines in human muscles during aging.

To answer the question of whether the satellite cell pool in human muscle is reduced during aging, we detected satellite cells in 30- microm-thick transverse sections under the confocal microscope by binding of M-cadherin antibody. The basal lamina was detected with laminin. Nuclei were stained with bisbenzimide or propidium iodide. Satellite cells were counted by applying the disector method and unbiased sampling design. To determine if there are age-related differences in muscle fiber types, morphometric characteristics of muscle fibers were examined on thin sections stained for myofibrillar ATPase. Autopsy samples of vastus lateralis muscle from six young (28.7 +/- 2.3 years) and six old (70.8 +/- 1.3 years) persons who had suffered sudden death were analyzed. Numbers of satellite cells per fiber length (Nsc/Lfib) and number of satellite cells per total number of nuclei (satellite cell nuclei + myonuclei) (Nsc/Nnucl) were significantly lower in the old group (p < 0.05). We demonstrate the importance of proper sampling and counting in estimation of sparsely distributed structures such as satellite cells. Our results support the hypothesis that the satellite cell fraction declines during aging.     

Hidden population size estimation and diagnostics using two respondent-driven samples with applications in Armenia

Estimating the size of hidden populations is essential to understand the magnitude of social and healthcare needs, risk behaviors, and disease burden. However, due to the hidden nature of these populations, they are difficult to survey, and there are no gold standard size estimation methods. Many different methods and variations exist, and diagnostic tools are needed to help researchers assess method-specific assumptions as well as compare between methods. Further, because many necessary mathematical assumptions are unrealistic for real survey implementation, assessment of how robust methods are to deviations from the stated assumptions is essential. We describe diagnostics and assess the performance of a new population size estimation method, capture–recapture with successive sampling population size estimation (CR-SS-PSE), which we apply to data from 3 years of studies from three cities and three hidden populations in Armenia. CR-SS-PSE relies on data from two sequential respondent-driven sampling surveys and extends the successive sampling population size estimation (SS-PSE) framework by using the number of individuals in the overlap between the two surveys and a model for the successive sampling process to estimate population size. We demonstrate that CR-SS-PSE is more robust to violations of successive sampling assumptions than SS-PSE. Further, we compare the CR-SS-PSE estimates to population size estimations using other common methods, including unique object and service multipliers, wisdom of the crowd, and two-source capture–recapture to illustrate volatility across estimation methods.     

Estimating regional population size and annual harvest intensity of the sooty shearwater in New Zealand

Abstract

Recent comprehensive survey data from multiple New Zealand offshore islands were combined with demographic population models to produce the first formal estimate of the total population of sooty shearwaters within New Zealand territory. We estimated the total population over 1994–2005 to be 21.3 (19.0–23.6) million individual birds in the New Zealand region. This population consisted of 12.8 (12.0–13.6) million adults, 2.8 (2.5–3.1) million chicks, and 4.4 (4.2–4.7) million breeding pairs. Breeding sooty shearwaters were concentrated primarily around the southern islands of New Zealand, with 53% breeding in the Titi Islands surrounding Rakiura (Stewart Island). Rakiura Maori muttonbirders were estimated to harvest 360 000 (320 000–400 000) sooty shearwaters per year, equivalent to 18% of the chicks produced in the harvested areas and 13% of chicks in the New Zealand region. Overall, 11% of the chicks within the Titi Islands live on unharvested ground. Systematic and widespread surveys of breeding colonies in South America are needed before a reliable global sooty shearwater population estimate can be calculated.     

Performance of Baited Underwater Video: Does It Underestimate Abundance at High Population Densities?

Video survey techniques are now commonly used to estimate animal abundance under the assumption that estimates relate to true abundance, a key property needed to make video a valid survey tool. Using the spiny lobster Palinurus elephas as our model organism, we evaluate the effectiveness of baited underwater video (BUV) for estimating abundance in areas with widely different population density. We test three BUV abundance metrics and compare the results with an independently obtained abundance index from trammel-net surveys (Trammel). Video metrics used to estimate relative abundance include a value for total number of individuals per recording (TotN), the traditional maximum number of fish observed in a single video frame (MaxN), and the recently suggested alternative, the average of the mean MaxN from 5-minute periods throughout the duration of the recording (MeanN). This is the first video study of a wild population to include an estimate for TotN. Comparison of TotN with the other two BUV relative abundance metrics demonstrates that both of the latter lack resolution at high population densities. In spite of this, the three BUV metrics tested, as well as the independent estimate Trammel, distinguished high density areas from low density areas. Thus they could all be used to identify areas of differing population density, but MaxN and MeanN would not be appropriate metrics for studies aimed at documenting increases in abundance, such as those conducted to assess marine protected area effectiveness, as they are prone to sampling saturation. We also demonstrate that time of first arrival (T1) is highly correlated with all of the abundance indices; suggesting T1 may be a potentially useful index of abundance. However, these relationships require further investigation as our data suggests T1 may not adequately represent lobster abundance in areas of high density.     

Evaluation of an Aerial Survey to Estimate Abundance of Wintering Ducks in Mississippi

Abstract: Researchers have successfully designed aerial surveys that provided precise estimates of wintering populations of ducks over large physiographic regions, yet few conservation agencies have adopted these probability-based sampling designs for their surveys. We designed and evaluated an aerial survey to estimate abundance of wintering mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), dabbling ducks (tribe Anatini) other than mallards, diving ducks (tribes Aythini, Mergini, and Oxyurini), and total ducks in western Mississippi, USA. We used design-based sampling of fixed width transects to estimate population indices (Ǐ), and we used model-based methods to correct population indices for visibility bias and estimate population abundance (Ň) for 14 surveys during winters 2002–2004. Correcting for bias increased estimates of mallards, other dabbling ducks, and diving ducks by an average of 40–48% among all surveys and contributed 48–61% of the estimated variance of Ň. However, mean-squared errors were consistently less for Ň than Ǐ. Estimates of Ň met our goals for precision (CV ≤ 15%) in 7 of 14 surveys for mallards, 5 surveys for other dabbling ducks, no surveys for diving ducks, and 10 surveys for total ducks. Generally, we estimated more mallards and other dabbling ducks in mid- and late winter (Jan-Feb) than early winter (Nov-Dec) and determined that population indices from the late 1980s were nearly 3 times greater than those from our study. We developed a method to display relative densities of ducks spatially as an additional application of survey data. Our study advanced methods of estimating abundance of wintering waterfowl, and we recommend this design for continued monitoring of wintering ducks in western Mississippi and similar physiographic regions.