Pliocene intraspecific divergence and Plio‐Pleistocene range expansions within Picea likiangensis (Lijiang spruce), a dominant forest tree of the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau

A knowledge of intraspecific divergence and range dynamics of dominant forest trees in response to past geological and climate change is of major importance to an understanding of their recent evolution and demography. Such knowledge is informative of how forests were affected by environmental factors in the past and may provide pointers to their response to future environmental change. However, genetic signatures of such historical events are often weak at individual loci due to large effective population sizes and long generation times of forest trees. This problem can be overcome by analysing genetic variation across multiple loci. We used this approach to examine intraspecific divergence and past range dynamics in the conifer Picea likiangensis, a dominant tree of forests occurring in eastern and southern areas of the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau (QTP). We sequenced 13 nuclear loci, two mitochondrial DNA regions and three plastid (chloroplast) DNA regions in 177 individuals sampled from 22 natural populations of this species, and tested the hypothesis that its evolutionary history was markedly affected by Pliocene QTP uplifts and Quaternary climatic oscillations. Consistent with the taxonomic delimitation of the three morphologically divergent varieties examined, all individuals clustered into three genetic groups with intervariety admixture detected in regions of geographical overlap. Divergence between varieties was estimated to have occurred within the Pliocene and ecological niche modelling based on 20 ecological variables suggested that niche differentiation was high. Furthermore, modelling of population‐genetic data indicated that two of the varieties (var. rubescens and var. linzhiensis) expanded their population sizes after the largest Quaternary glaciation in the QTP, while expansion of the third variety (var. likiangensis) began prior to this, probably following the Pliocene QTP uplift. These findings point to the importance of geological and climatic changes during the Pliocene and Pleistocene as causes of intraspecific diversification and range shifts of dominant tree species in the QTP biodiversity hot spot region.     

The limits to biogeographical distributions: insights from the northward range extension of the marine snail, Kelletia kelletii (Forbes, 1852)

Aim The development of accurate models predicting species range shifts in response to climate change requires studies on the population biology of species whose distributional limits are in the process of shifting. We examine the population biology of an example system using the recent northward range expansion of the marine neogastropod Kelletia kelletii (Forbes, 1852). Location This is a marine coastal shelf neogastropod species whose range extends from Isla Asuncion (Baja California, Mexico) to Monterey (CA, USA). Research sites spanned the extent of the range. Methods We examine abundance distributions and size frequency distributions of K. kelletii for evidence of factors determining historic and contemporary distributional patterns. Population studies were supplemented by historic and contemporary hydrographic data, including seawater temperature data from California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI ) and National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), and seawater circulation data. Results The structure of recently established populations varied dramatically from that of historic populations. Markedly low densities and irregular size frequency distributions characterized recently established populations and suggested only occasionally successful recruitment. The point of transition between historic and recently established populations also corresponded to the location of a gradient in seawater temperature and the confluence of two major oceanic currents. The accumulated data suggest that temperature and/or barriers to dispersal could have set both contemporary patterns in population structure as well as the former northern range limit. Main conclusions Early life stages play a critical role in determining distributional patterns of K. kelletii. Dispersal barriers and temperature limitation are two plausible mechanisms that could determine both contemporary and historic distributional patterns. Future studies on this species should attempt to tease apart the relative importance of these factors in maintaining the populations at the northern edge of the range.     

Spatial differences in genetic diversity and northward migration suggest genetic erosion along the boreal caribou southern range limit and continued range retraction

With increasing human activities and associated landscape changes, distributions of terrestrial mammals become fragmented. These changes in distribution are often associated with reduced population sizes and loss of genetic connectivity and diversity (i.e., genetic erosion) which may further diminish a species' ability to respond to changing environmental conditions and lead to local population extinctions. We studied threatened boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) populations across their distribution in Ontario/Manitoba (Canada) to assess changes in genetic diversity and connectivity in areas of high and low anthropogenic activity. Using data from >1,000 caribou and nine microsatellite loci, we assessed population genetic structure, genetic diversity, and recent migration rates using a combination of network and population genetic analyses. We used Bayesian clustering analyses to identify population genetic structure and explored spatial and temporal variation in those patterns by assembling networks based on R_ST and F_ST as historical and contemporary genetic edge distances, respectively. The Bayesian clustering analyses identified broad‐scale patterns of genetic structure and closely aligned with the R_ST network. The F_ST network revealed substantial contemporary genetic differentiation, particularly in areas presenting contemporary anthropogenic disturbances and habitat fragmentation. In general, relatively lower genetic diversity and greater genetic differentiation were detected along the southern range limit, differing from areas in the northern parts of the distribution. Moreover, estimation of migration rates suggested a northward movement of animals away from the southern range limit. The patterns of genetic erosion revealed in our study suggest ongoing range retraction of boreal caribou in central Canada.     

Local adaptation at range edges: comparing elevation and latitudinal gradients

Local adaptation at range edges influences species’ distributions and how they respond to environmental change. However, the factors that affect adaptation, including gene flow and local selection pressures, are likely to vary across different types of range edge. We performed a reciprocal transplant experiment to investigate local adaptation in populations of Plantago lanceolata and P. major from central locations in their European range and from their latitudinal and elevation range edges (in northern Scandinavia and Swiss Alps, respectively). We also characterized patterns of genetic diversity and differentiation in populations using molecular markers. Range‐centre plants of P. major were adapted to conditions at the range centre, but performed similarly to range‐edge plants when grown at the range edges. There was no evidence for local adaptation when comparing central and edge populations of P. lanceolata. However, plants of both species from high elevation were locally adapted when compared with plants from high latitude, although the reverse was not true. This asymmetry was associated with greater genetic diversity and less genetic differentiation over the elevation gradient than over the latitudinal gradient. Our results suggest that adaptation in some range‐edge populations could increase their performance following climate change. However, responses are likely to differ along elevation and latitudinal gradients, with adaptation more likely at high‐elevation. Furthermore, based upon these results, we suggest that gene flow is unlikely to constrain adaptation in range‐edge populations of these species.     

Unravelling the effects of contemporary and historical range expansion on the distribution of genetic diversity in the damselfly Coenagrion scitulum

Although genetic diversity provides the basic substrate for evolution, there are a limited number of studies that assess the impact of recent climate change on intraspecific genetic variation. This study aims to unravel the degree to which historical and contemporary factors shape genetic diversity and structure across a large part of the range of the range‐expanding damselfly Coenagrion scitulum (Rambur, 1842). A total of 525 individuals from 31 populations were genotyped at nine microsatellites, and a subset was sequenced at two mitochondrial genes. We inferred the importance of geography, environmental factors, and recent range expansion on genetic diversity and structure. Genetic diversity decreased going westwards, suggesting a signature of historical post‐glacial expansion from east to west and the presence of eastern refugia. Although genetic differentiation decreased going northwards, it increased in the northern edge populations, suggesting a role of contemporary range expansion on the genetic make‐up of populations. The phylogeographical context was proven to be essential in understanding and identifying the genetic signatures of local contemporary processes. Within this framework, our results highlight that recent range expansion of a good disperser can decrease genetic diversity and increase genetic differentiation which should be considered when devising suitable conservation strategies.     

Geographic patterns of genetic differentiation within the restricted range of the endangered Stephens' kangaroo rat Dipodomys stephensi

Using mtDNA variation in the kangaroo rat Dipodomys stephensi, we found no support for the hypothesis that a species with an historically restricted range will exhibit low levels of genetic polymorphism and little genetic structure. Dipodomys stephensi has long been restricted to a few interior coastal valleys in southern California encompassing an area of approximately 70 x 40 km; however, we found high levels of genetic variation over much of its range and significant genetic structure both within and between regions. We also found evidence for a recent range expansion. Dipodomys stephensi is a federally endangered species that is separated from D. panamintinus, its presumed sister taxon, by a mountain range to the north. We assessed genetic variation by sequencing 645 bases of the mitochondrial d-loop from 61 individuals sampled from 16 locations across the species range and rooted their relationship using two D. panamintinus individuals. Despite its limited geographic range, the level of mtDNA variation in D. stephensi is comparable to that of other rodents, including that of the more widely distributed D. panamintinus. This variation revealed significant regional differentiation. The northern, central, and southern regions of the range differ in both the level and the distribution of genetic variation. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the center of the range contains the most diversity of lineages, including the most basal. In this region and in the north, most haplotypes were found at only a single location (25/29), or at a pair of nearby locations (3/29). In addition, related haplotypes clustered geographically. These results are consistent with long-term demographic stability characterized by limited dispersal and high local effective population size. Further support for this conclusion is the finding of unique diversity in two northern peripheral populations, Norco and Potrero Creek (PC). However, in sharp contrast, one haplotype (CC) was found at five of 11 central and northern locations and comprised 18% of individuals sampled. The atypical distribution of the CC haplotype reflected a pattern seen more strongly in the southern region. Here the CC haplotype comprised 69% of the sample and was found at all five sampling locations. Consequently, the southern region had very low genetic variability. We propose that this dominance of CC was probably due to a local population bottleneck that occurred during a recent range expansion into the southern region.     

Intraspecific trait variation across elevation predicts a widespread tree species' climate niche and range limits

Global change is widely altering environmental conditions which makes accurately predicting species range limits across natural landscapes critical for conservation and management decisions. If climate pressures along elevation gradients influence the distribution of phenotypic and genetic variation of plant functional traits, then such trait variation may be informative of the selective mechanisms and adaptations that help define climatic niche limits. Using extensive field surveys along 16 elevation transects and a large common garden experiment, we tested whether functional trait variation could predict the climatic niche of a widespread tree species (Populus angustifolia) with a double quantile regression approach. We show that intraspecific variation in plant size, growth, and leaf morphology corresponds with the species' total climate range and certain climatic limits related to temperature and moisture extremes. Moreover, we find evidence of genetic clines and phenotypic plasticity at environmental boundaries, which we use to create geographic predictions of trait variation and maximum values due to climatic constraints across the western US. Overall, our findings show the utility of double quantile regressions for connecting species distributions and climate gradients through trait‐based mechanisms. We highlight how new approaches like ours that incorporate genetic variation in functional traits and their response to climate gradients will lead to a better understanding of plant distributions as well as identifying populations anticipated to be maladapted to future environments.     

Lack of genetic variation prevents adaptation at the geographic range margin in a damselfly

What limits a species' distribution in the absence of physical barriers? Genetic load due to asymmetric gene flow and the absence of genetic variation due to lack of gene flow are hypothesized to constrain adaptation to novel environments in marginal populations, preventing range expansion. Here, we examined the genetic structure and geographic variation in morphological traits in two damselflies (Ischnura asiatica and I. senegalensis) along a latitudinal gradient in Japan, which is the distribution centre of I. asiatica and the northern limit of I. senegalensis. Genomewide genetic analyses found a loss of genetic diversity at the edge of distribution in I. senegalensis but consistently high diversity in I. asiatica. Gene flow was asymmetric in a south–north direction in both species. Although body size and wing loading showed decreasing latitudinal clines (smaller in north) in I. asiatica in Japan, increasing latitudinal clines (larger in north) in these phenotypic markers were observed in I. senegalensis, particularly near the northern boundary, which coincided well with the location where genetic diversity began a sharp decline. In ectothermic animals, increasing latitudinal cline in these traits was suggested to be established when they failed to adapt to thermal gradient. Therefore, our findings support the possibility that a lack of genetic variation rather than geneflow swamping is responsible for the constraint of adaptation at the margin of geographic distribution.     

Climate structures genetic variation across a species' elevation range: a test of range limits hypotheses

Gene flow may influence the formation of species range limits, and yet little is known about the patterns of gene flow with respect to environmental gradients or proximity to range limits. With rapid environmental change, it is especially important to understand patterns of gene flow to inform conservation efforts. Here we investigate the species range of the selfing, annual plant, Mimulus laciniatus, in the California Sierra Nevada. We assessed genetic variation, gene flow, and population abundance across the entire elevation‐based climate range. Contrary to expectations, within‐population plant density increased towards both climate limits. Mean genetic diversity of edge populations was equivalent to central populations; however, all edge populations exhibited less genetic diversity than neighbouring interior populations. Genetic differentiation was fairly consistent and moderate among all populations, and no directional signals of contemporary gene flow were detected between central and peripheral elevations. Elevation‐driven gene flow (isolation by environment), but not isolation by distance, was found across the species range. These findings were the same towards high‐ and low‐elevation range limits and were inconsistent with two common centre‐edge hypotheses invoked for the formation of species range limits: (i) decreasing habitat quality and population size; (ii) swamping gene flow from large, central populations. This pattern demonstrates that climate, but not centre‐edge dynamics, is an important range‐wide factor structuring M. laciniatus populations. To our knowledge, this is the first empirical study to relate environmental patterns of gene flow to range limits hypotheses. Similar investigations across a wide variety of taxa and life histories are needed.     

Evidence for evolutionary change associated with the recent range expansion of the British butterfly, Aricia agestis, in response to climate change

Poleward range expansions are widespread responses to recent climate change and are crucial for the future persistence of many species. However, evolutionary change in traits such as colonization history and habitat preference may also be necessary to track environmental change across a fragmented landscape. Understanding the likelihood and speed of such adaptive change is important in determining the rate of species extinction with ongoing climate change. We conducted an amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP)‐based genome scan across the recently expanded UK range of the Brown Argus butterfly, Aricia agestis, and used outlier‐based (DFDIST and BayeScan) and association‐based (Isolation‐By‐Adaptation) statistical approaches to identify signatures of evolutionary change associated with range expansion and habitat use. We present evidence for (i) limited effects of range expansion on population genetic structure and (ii) strong signatures of selection at approximately 5% AFLP loci associated with both the poleward range expansion of A. agestis and differences in habitat use across long‐established and recently colonized sites. Patterns of allele frequency variation at these candidate loci suggest that adaptation to new habitats at the range margin has involved selection on genetic variation in habitat use found across the long‐established part of the range. Our results suggest that evolutionary change is likely to affect species’ responses to climate change and that genetic variation in ecological traits across species’ distributions should be maximized to facilitate range shifts across a fragmented landscape, particularly in species that show strong associations with particular habitats.     

Impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on the range dynamics of South African Proteaceae

Aim

To assess how habitat loss and climate change interact in affecting the range dynamics of species and to quantify how predicted range dynamics depend on demographic properties of species and the severity of environmental change.

Location

South African Cape Floristic Region.

Methods

We use data‐driven demographic models to assess the impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on range size, range filing and abundances of eight species of woody plants (Proteaceae). The species‐specific models employ a hybrid approach that simulates population dynamics and long‐distance dispersal on top of expected spatio‐temporal dynamics of suitable habitat.

Results

Climate change was mainly predicted to reduce range size and range filling (because of a combination of strong habitat shifts with low migration ability). In contrast, habitat loss mostly decreased mean local abundance. For most species and response measures, the combination of habitat loss and climate change had the most severe effect. Yet, this combined effect was mostly smaller than expected from adding or multiplying effects of the individual environmental drivers. This seems to be because climate change shifts suitable habitats to regions less affected by habitat loss. Interspecific variation in range size responses depended mostly on the severity of environmental change, whereas responses in range filling and local abundance depended mostly on demographic properties of species. While most surviving populations concentrated in areas that remain climatically suitable, refugia for multiple species were overestimated by simply overlying habitat models and ignoring demography.

Main conclusions

Demographic models of range dynamics can simultaneously predict the response of range size, abundance and range filling to multiple drivers of environmental change. Demographic knowledge is particularly needed to predict abundance responses and to identify areas that can serve as biodiversity refugia under climate change. These findings highlight the need for data‐driven, demographic assessments in conservation biogeography.

     

Hurricanes overcome migration lag and shape intraspecific genetic variation beyond a poleward mangrove range limit

Expansion of many tree species lags behind climate change projections. Extreme storms can rapidly overcome this lag, especially for coastal species, but how will storm‐driven expansion shape intraspecific genetic variation? Do storms provide recruits only from the nearest sources, or from more distant sources? Answers to these questions have ecological and evolutionary implications, but empirical evidence is absent from the literature. In 2017, Hurricane Irma provided an opportunity to address this knowledge gap at the northern range limit of the neotropical black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) on the Atlantic coast of Florida, USA. We observed massive post‐hurricane increases in beach‐stranded A. germinans propagules at, and past, this species’ present day range margin when compared to a previously surveyed nonhurricane year. Yet, propagule dispersal does not guarantee subsequent establishment and reproductive success (i.e., effective dispersal). We also evaluated prior effective dispersal along this coastline with isolated A. germinans trees identified beyond the most northern established population. We used 12 nuclear microsatellite loci to genotype 896 hurricane‐driven drift propagules from nine sites and 10 isolated trees from four sites, determined their sources of origin, and estimated dispersal distances. Almost all drift propagules and all isolated trees came from the nearest sources. This research suggests that hurricanes are a prerequisite for poleward range expansion of a coastal tree species and that storms can shape the expanding gene pool by providing almost exclusively range‐margin genotypes. These insights and empirical estimates of hurricane‐driven dispersal distances should improve our ability to forecast distributional shifts of coastal species.     

Mutation accumulation and the formation of range limits

The dynamics of range formation are important for understanding and predicting species distributions. Here, we focus on a process that has thus far been overlooked in the context of range formation; the accumulation of mutation load. We find that mutation accumulation severely reduces the extent of a range across an environmental gradient, especially when dispersal is limited, growth rate is low and mutations are of intermediate deleterious effect. Our results illustrate the important role deleterious mutations can play in range formation. We highlight this as a necessary focus for further work, noting particularly the potentially conflicting effects dispersal may have in reducing mutation load and simultaneously increasing migration load in marginal populations.     

Rapid evolution of phenology during range expansion with recent climate change

Although climate warming is expected to make habitat beyond species’ current cold range edge suitable for future colonization, this new habitat may present an array of biotic or abiotic conditions not experienced within the current range. Species’ ability to shift their range with climate change may therefore depend on how populations evolve in response to such novel environmental conditions. However, due to the recent nature of thus far observed range expansions, the role of rapid adaptation during climate change migration is only beginning to be understood. Here, we evaluated evolution during the recent native range expansion of the annual plant Dittrichia graveolens, which is spreading northward in Europe from the Mediterranean region. We examined genetically based differentiation between core and edge populations in their phenology, a trait that is likely under selection with shorter growing seasons and greater seasonality at northern latitudes. In parallel common garden experiments at range edges in Switzerland and the Netherlands, we grew plants from Dutch, Swiss, and central and southern French populations. Population genetic analysis following RAD‐sequencing of these populations supported the hypothesized central France origins of the Swiss and Dutch range edge populations. We found that in both common gardens, northern plants flowered up to 4 weeks earlier than southern plants. This differentiation in phenology extended from the core of the range to the Netherlands, a region only reached from central France over approximately the last 50 years. Fitness decreased as plants flowered later, supporting the hypothesized benefits of earlier flowering at the range edge. Our results suggest that native range expanding populations can rapidly adapt to novel environmental conditions in the expanded range, potentially promoting their ability to spread.     

Plant chemical defense allocation constrains evolution of tolerance to community change across a range boundary

Because transplant experiments show that performance usually decreases across species range boundaries, some range limits might develop from factors and processes that prevent adaptation to stressful environments. Here, we determined whether an ecological cost of plant defense involving stress associated with changes in the local plant community may contribute to range limit development in the upland mustard species Boechera stricta. In a common garden experiment of 499 B. stricta plants, performance decreased and a multivariate axis of community structure increased across the boundary, indicating increased stress associated with the community change. There was also significant genetic variation (evolutionary potential) among marker‐inferred inbred lines of B. stricta for tolerance to the stress; however, lines with high basal levels of glucosinolate toxins had lower tolerance to the change in community structure. We suggest that defense allocation, which is also needed across the range, may impede adaptation to the stress associated with the community change and thus contribute to range limit development.     

Long‐distance dispersal maximizes evolutionary potential during rapid geographic range expansion

Conventional wisdom predicts that sequential founder events will cause genetic diversity to erode in species with expanding geographic ranges, limiting evolutionary potential at the range margin. Here, we show that invasive European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) in South Africa preserve genetic diversity during range expansion, possibly as a result of frequent long‐distance dispersal events. We further show that unfavourable environmental conditions trigger enhanced dispersal, as indicated by signatures of selection detected across the expanding range. This brings genetic variation to the expansion front, counterbalancing the cumulative effects of sequential founding events and optimizing standing genetic diversity and thus evolutionary potential at range margins during spread. Therefore, dispersal strategies should be highlighted as key determinants of the ecological and evolutionary performances of species in novel environments and in response to global environmental change.     

Bergmann's rule is maintained during a rapid range expansion in a damselfly

Climate‐induced range shifts result in the movement of a sample of genotypes from source populations to new regions. The phenotypic consequences of those shifts depend upon the sample characteristics of the dispersive genotypes, which may act to either constrain or promote phenotypic divergence, and the degree to which plasticity influences the genotype–environment interaction. We sampled populations of the damselfly Erythromma viridulum from northern Europe to quantify the phenotypic (latitude–body size relationship based on seven morphological traits) and genetic (variation at microsatellite loci) patterns that occur during a range expansion itself. We find a weak spatial genetic structure that is indicative of high gene flow during a rapid range expansion. Despite the potentially homogenizing effect of high gene flow, however, there is extensive phenotypic variation among samples along the invasion route that manifests as a strong, positive correlation between latitude and body size consistent with Bergmann's rule. This positive correlation cannot be explained by variation in the length of larval development (voltinism). While the adaptive significance of latitudinal variation in body size remains obscure, geographical patterns in body size in odonates are apparently underpinned by phenotypic plasticity and this permits a response to one or more environmental correlates of latitude during a range expansion.     

The genetic signature of rapid range expansion by flying squirrels in response to contemporary climate warming

Climate is an important factor limiting species distributions. Historic climate‐change related range movements have modified the genetic diversity of species by the merging and splitting of gene pools and by the effects associated with recurrent founder events. These effects are often inferred, either from retrospective analyses of current genetic patterns or from simulations. Rarely has it been possible for the population genetic effects of range expansion to be examined with contemporaneous demographic data. We characterized the genetic signature of rapid range expansion by southern flying squirrels (Glaucomys volans) and compared these results to a stationary population of the closely related northern flying squirrel (Glaucomys sabrinus) in Ontario, Canada. Samples were taken during an approximately 200 km range expansion by G. volans (1994–2003) and genotyped at 6 (G. sabrinus) and 8 (G. volans) microsatellite loci. For G. volans, but not G. sabrinus, we found evidence of a latitudinal gradient in allele frequencies and a decrease in allelic richness along the axis of expansion. We found no evidence of isolation‐by‐distance in either species or of genetic bottlenecks in the area of G. volans expansion. These results suggest that serial founder events can cause an immediate reduction in genetic diversity following rapid range expansion with high levels of gene flow giving rise to heterogeneity within what would classically be termed panmixia. Given the pace of anthropogenic climate change, and the increasing incidence of range movements in response, this may be an important, immediate consequence of climate change.     

Palaeodistribution modelling and genetic evidence highlight differential post‐glacial range shifts of a rain forest conifer distributed across a latitudinal gradient

Aim We examine the range expansion/contraction dynamics during the last glacial cycle of the late‐successional tropical rain forest conifer Podocarpus elatus using a combination of modelling and molecular marker analyses. Specifically, we test whether distributional changes predicted by environmental niche modelling are in agreement with (1) the glacial maximum contractions inferred from the southern fossil record, and (2) population genetic‐based estimates of range disjunctions and demographic dynamics. In addition, we test whether northern and southern ranges are likely to have experienced similar expansion/contraction dynamics. Location Eastern Australian tropical and subtropical rain forests. Methods Environmental niche modelling was completed for three time periods during the last glacial cycle and was interpreted in light of the known palynology. We collected 109 samples from 32 populations across the entire range of P. elatus. Six microsatellite loci and Bayesian coalescence analysis were used to infer population expansion/contraction dynamics, and five sequenced loci (one plastid and four nuclear) were used to quantify genetic structure/diversity. Results Environmental niche modelling suggested that the northern and southern ranges of P. elatus experienced different expansion/contraction dynamics. In the northern range, the habitat suitable for P. elatus persisted in a small refugial area during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka) and then expanded during the post‐glacial period. Conversely, in the south suitable habitat was widespread during the LGM but subsequently contracted. These differential dynamics were supported by Bayesian analyses of the population genetic data (northern dispersal) and are consistent with the greater genetic diversity in the south compared with the north. A contact zone between the two genetically divergent groups (corresponding to the Macleay Overlap Zone) was supported by environmental niche modelling and molecular analyses. Main conclusions The climatic fluctuations of the Quaternary have differentially impacted the northern and southern ranges of a broadly distributed rain forest tree in Australia. Recurrent contraction/expansion cycles contributed to the genetic distinction between northern and southern distributions of P. elatus. By combining molecular and environmental niche modelling evidence, this unique study undermines the general assumption that broadly distributed species respond in a uniform way to climate change.     

Influence of northern limit range on genetic diversity and structure in a widespread North American tree,sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marshall)

Due to climate change, the ranges of many North American tree species are expected to shift northward. Sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marshall) reaches its northern continuous distributional limit in northeastern North America at the transition between boreal mixed‐wood and temperate deciduous forests. We hypothesized that marginal fragmented northern populations from the boreal mixed wood would have a distinct pattern of genetic structure and diversity. We analyzed variation at 18 microsatellite loci from 23 populations distributed along three latitudinal transects (west, central, and east) that encompass the continuous–discontinuous species range. Each transect was divided into two zones, continuous (temperate deciduous) and discontinuous (boreal mixed wood), based on sugar maple stand abundance. Respective positive and negative relationships were found between the distance of each population to the northern limit (D_north), and allelic richness (A_R) and population differentiation (F_ST). These relations were tested for each transect separately; the pattern (discontinuous–continuous) remained significant only for the western transect. structure analysis revealed the presence of four clusters. The most northern populations of each transect were assigned to a distinct group. Asymmetrical gene flow occurred from the southern into the four northernmost populations. Southern populations in Québec may have originated from two different postglacial migration routes. No evidence was found to validate the hypothesis that northern populations were remnants of a larger population that had migrated further north of the species range after the retreat of the ice sheet. The northernmost sugar maple populations possibly originated from long‐distance dispersal.