Mark‐recapture modeling accounting for state uncertainty provides concurrent estimates of survival and fecundity in a protected harbor seal population

Harbor seal breeding behavior and habitats constrain opportunities for individual‐based studies, and no current estimates of both survival and fecundity exist for any of the populations studied worldwide. As a result, the drivers underlying the variable trends in abundance exhibited by harbor seal populations around the world remain uncertain. We developed an individual‐based study of harbor seals in northeast Scotland, whereby data were collected during daily photo‐identification surveys throughout the pupping seasons between 2006 and 2011. However, a consequence of observing seals remotely meant that information on sex, maturity‐stage, or breeding status was not always available. To provide unbiased estimates of survival rates we conditioned initial release of individuals on the first time sex was known to estimate sex‐specific survival rates, while a robust design multistate model accounting for uncertainty in breeding status was used to estimate reproductive rate of multiparous and ≥3‐yr‐old females. Survival rates were estimated at 0.95 (95% CI = 0.91–0.97) for females and 0.92 (0.83–0.96) for males, while reproductive rate was estimated at 0.89 (0.75–0.95) for multiparous and 0.69 (0.64–0.74) for ≥3‐yr‐old females. Stage‐based population modeling indicated that this population should be recovering, even under the current shooting quotas implemented by the recent management plan.     

Reproductive trade‐offs in a long‐lived bird species: condition‐dependent reproductive allocation maintains female survival and offspring quality

Life history theory is an essential framework to understand the evolution of reproductive allocation. It predicts that individuals of long‐lived species favour their own survival over current reproduction, leading individuals to refrain from reproducing under harsh conditions. Here we test this prediction in a long‐lived bird species, the Siberian jay Perisoreus infaustus. Long‐term data revealed that females rarely refrain from breeding, but lay smaller clutches in unfavourable years. Neither offspring body size, female survival nor offspring survival until the next year was influenced by annual condition, habitat quality, clutch size, female age or female phenotype. Given that many nests failed due to nest predation, the variance in the number of fledglings was higher than the variance in the number of eggs and female survival. An experimental challenge with a novel pathogen before egg laying largely replicated these patterns in two consecutive years with contrasting conditions. Challenged females refrained from breeding only in the unfavourable year, but no downstream effects were found in either year. Taken together, these findings demonstrate that condition‐dependent reproductive allocation may serve to maintain female survival and offspring quality, supporting patterns found in long‐lived mammals. We discuss avenues to develop life history theory concerning strategies to offset reproductive costs.     

Reproduction,birth seasonality,and calf survival of bottlenose dolphins in Doubtful Sound,New Zealand

Understanding the reproductive parameters of very small or declining populations is of clear importance to conservation. From 1995 to 2011 we recorded calf production (n = 71) and calf survival for 27 breeding females in the bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) population in Doubtful Sound, New Zealand; a population with a recent history of declining abundance. Overall, 67% of calves survived their first year, and 40% survived to 3 yr (or are 2 yr old and still alive). Most calves that died in the first year died in their first month (87%). Multiparous mothers (n = 18) showed high variation in calf survival. The most successful six had all but one of their 20 calves (95%) survive to 1 yr. Fourteen of the 20 (70%) survived to 3 yr, and another four are still alive and are 1 or 2 yr old. In contrast, the least successful seven mothers produced a similar number of calves (21), eight of which (38%) survived to 1 yr, and none to 3 yr. Here we describe calving seasonality and calf survival, observed over 16 yr, and show that large variation in reproductive success of individual females is an example of extreme demographic stochasticity in this small, endangered population.     

Litter loss triggers estrus in a nonsocial seasonal breeder

Sexually selected infanticide (SSI) is often presumed to be rare among seasonal breeders, because it would require a near immediate return to estrus after the loss of an entire litter during the mating season. We evaluated changes in reproductive strategies and the reproductive fate of females that experienced litter loss during the mating season in a seasonal breeder with strong evidence for SSI, the brown bear. First, we used a long‐term demographic dataset (1986–2011) to document that a large majority of females (>91%) that lose their entire litter during the mating season in fact do enter estrus, mate, and give birth during the subsequent birthing season. Second, we used high‐resolution movement data (2005–2011) to evaluate how females changed reproductive strategies after losing their entire litter during the mating season. We hypothesized that females would shift from the sedentary lifestyle typical for females with cubs‐of‐the‐year to a roam‐to‐mate behavior typical for receptive females in no more than a few (~3) days after litter loss. We found that females with cubs‐of‐the‐year moved at about 1/3 of the rate and in a less bimodal diurnal pattern than receptive females during the mating season. The probability of litter loss was positively related with movement rate, suggesting that being elusive and sedentary is a strategy to enhance cub survival rather than a relic of cub mobility itself. The movement patterns of receptive females and females after litter loss were indistinguishable within 1–2 days after the litter loss, and we illustrate that SSI can significantly reduce the female interbirth interval (50–85%). Our results suggest that SSI can also be advantageous for males in seasonally breeding mammals. We propose that infanticide as a male reproductive strategy is more prevalent among mammals with reproductive seasonality than observed or reported.     

Pregnancy rate and biomarker validations from the blubber of eastern North Pacific blue whales

Hormonal biomarkers are useful indicators of mammalian reproductive and metabolic states. The present study validated and applied the use of progesterone and cortisol blubber assays for studies of blue whales from the Gulf of California, Mexico. In a validation study for pregnancy detection, blubber progesterone concentrations were correlated with pregnancy status for four female blue whales: three resighted with a calf the year following sampling and the fourth stranded with a fetus. The progesterone concentrations were significantly higher than those measured in juvenile whales (n = 3). In the application study, blubber samples from blue whales (51 noncalf females, 2 female calves, 48 noncalf males, and 1 male calf) with known sighting histories were analyzed. Putative pregnant females had elevated progesterone concentrations. Cortisol concentrations did not differ between male and female blue whales, or among females in different reproductive classes. After correcting for uncertain ages, hence maturity status, the pregnancy rate of noncalf females was 33.4% (95% CI 32.2%–34.3%). Although interpretation of hormone biomarkers must consider all physiological states that may influence progesterone concentrations, these results demonstrate the utility of pairing hormone biomarkers with sighting histories to help assess environmental or anthropogenic impacts on reproduction in blue whales.     

Survival and cause-specific mortality of moose calves in Northeastern Minnesota

Ungulate reproductive success (calf production and survival) influences population performance. The moose (Alces alces) population in northeastern Minnesota, USA, has declined 65% from 2006 to 2018 but has begun to stabilize. Because causes of this decline were largely unknown, we investigated production, survival, and cause-specific mortality of calves of the global positioning system (GPS)-collared females in this population. In 2013 and 2014, we GPS-collared 74 neonates and monitored them for survival. In 2015 and 2016, we monitored 50 and 35 calving females for signs of neonatal mortality using changes in adult female velocities and assessed seasonal calf survival by aerial surveys. In 2013 and 2014 (pooled), survival to 9 months was 0.34 (95% CI = 0.23–0.52) for collared calves, and in 2015 and 2016 (pooled) survival was 0.35 (95% CI = 0.26–0.48) for uncollared calves. Mortality in all 4 years was high during the first 50 days of life. In 2013 and 2014 (pooled), calving sites were relatively safe for collared neonates; predator-kills occurred a median 17.0 days after departure and a median 1,142 m from calving sites. Predation was the leading cause of death of collared calves (84% of mortalities), with wolves (Canis lupus) accounting for 77% of these. Other forms of mortality for collared and uncollared calves included drowning, infection, vehicle collision, and natural abandonment. We documented higher wolf predation than other recent studies with similar predator communities. Identifying specific causes of calf mortality and understanding their relations to various landscape characteristics and other extrinsic factors should yield insight into mechanisms contributing to the declining moose population in northeastern Minnesota and serve as a basis for ecologically sound management responses. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.     

Lifetime fitness and age‐related female ornament signalling: evidence for survival and fecundity selection in the pied flycatcher

Ornaments displayed by females have often been denied evolutionary interest due to their frequently reduced expression relative to males, habitually attributed to a genetic correlation between the sexes. We estimated annual and lifetime reproductive success of female pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) and applied capture–mark–recapture models to analyse annual survival rates in relation to the patterns of expression (absence/presence) of an ornament displayed by all males and a fraction of females. Overall, the likelihood of expressing the ornament increased nonlinearly with female age and was due to within‐individual variation, not to the selective appearance or disappearance of ornament‐related expression of phenotypes in the population. Accordingly, expressing the forehead patch in a given year did not influence survival probability. However, those females expressing the ornament at early ages (1–2 years old) enjoyed survival advantages throughout lifetime. Although ornamented females had higher lifetime fecundity and fledging success, their yearly reproductive performance, in terms of fledging productivity, decreased as they aged so that, late in life, ornamented females reared fewer offspring than nonexpressing females of the same age. In addition, both strategies (expressing vs. not expressing the trait) returned similar fitness payoffs in terms of recruited offspring. Our results support the hypothesis that fecundity and survival selection are involved in the displaying of this ‘male’ ornament by females.     

High calf mortality in bottlenose dolphins in the Bay of Islands,New Zealand–a local unit in decline

Bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the Bay of Islands, New Zealand, have been studied for almost two decades. Since 2003, fewer than 150 dolphins visited the bay during each season and the local unit has declined 7.5% annually from 1997 to 2006. The causes of decline are unclear but probably include mortality and emigration. Here, we used a long‐term database to estimate reproductive parameters of female bottlenose dolphins including recruitment rates. A total of 704 surveys were conducted in which 5,577 sightings of 408 individually identified dolphins were collected; of these 53 individuals were identified as reproductive females. The calving rate increased between periods (1997–1999 = 0.13, CL = 0.07–0.21; 2003–2005 = 0.25, CL = 0.16–0.35 calves/reproductive female/year). A 0.25 calving rate suggests that on average, a female gives birth only once every four years, which is consistent with the estimated calving interval (4.3 yr, SD = 1.45) but still is lower than values reported for other populations. Conversely, apparent mortality rates to age 1+ (range: 0.34–0.52) and 2+ (range: 0.15–0.59) were higher than values reported elsewhere. The high apparent calf mortality in conjunction with a decline in local abundance, highlight the vulnerability of bottlenose dolphins in the Bay of Islands. Long‐term studies are required to understand the causes of high calf mortality and the decline in local abundance. Meanwhile, management should focus on minimizing sources of anthropogenic disturbance and enforcing compliance with current legislation.     

Long‐term social structure of a resident community of Atlantic spotted dolphins,Stenella Frontalis,in the Bahamas 1991–2002

Long‐term social structure data on small delphinids is lacking for most species except the bottlenose dolphin. This study describes the long‐term social structure of one community of Atlantic spotted dolphins, Stenella frontalis, divided into three social clusters. Data from 12 yr were analyzed using SOCPROG 2.3. Coefficients of association (CoA) were calculated using the half‐weight index. The overall mean community CoA ranged from 0.09 to 0.12. Temporal analyses and mantel tests revealed significant differences between sex class associations due to high male‐male CoA (0.12–0.23) compared to female‐female and mixed sex CoA (0.08–0.10). Female associations were strongly influenced by reproductive status, calf care, and social familiarity, but not by age class. Male associations were strongly influenced by age, access to females, and alliance formation. Males showed two levels of alliance formation, long‐term first order pairs/trios (CoA 0.70–1.00) and shorter‐term second order alliances between two or more first order alliances (CoA 0.45–0.69), and a possible third level during interspecies interactions. Mating strategies, sex, and cluster formation shaped the social structure in this spotted dolphin community. Similar to many bottlenose dolphin studies, long‐term affiliations for spotted dolphins were correlated with age, sex, and reproductive status.     

Reproduction and Survival of Yellowstone Bison

ABSTRACT The conservation of bison (Bison bison) from near extinction to >4,000 animals in Yellowstone National Park has led to conflict regarding overabundance and potential transmission of brucellosis (Brucella abortus) to cattle. We estimated survival and birth rates from 53 radiocollared adult female bison during 1995–2001, and we used calf:adult (C:A) ratios to estimate reproduction with the combined effects of pregnancy, fetal loss, and neonatal mortality during 1970–1997. Annual survival of adult females was high (0.92; 95% CI = 0.87-0.95) and constant. Birth rates differed by brucellosis status and age. Birth rates were 0.40 calves per female (95% CI = 0.15-0.65) for brucellosis-positive 3 year olds, 0.63 (95% CI = 0.39-0.87) for individuals testing negative, and 0.10 (95% CI = 0.00-0.24) for individuals contracting brucellosis that birth year (sero-converters). Birth rates were 0.64 (95% CI = 0.52-0.76) for brucellosis-positive individuals ≥4 years old, 0.81 (95% CI = 0.73-0.89) for brucellosis-negative individuals, and 0.22 (95% CI = 0.00-0.46) for sero-converters. Spring C:A ratios were negatively correlated with snow pack (β = −0.01 to −0.03, R² = 0.26-0.60, P < 0.05). Growth rate was highly elastic to adult survival (0.51), and juvenile survival (0.36) was 3 times more elastic than fecundity (0.12). Simulations suggested brucellosis eradication via vaccination would result in increased birth rates and a 29% increase in population growth (γ = 1.09), possibly leading to more bison movements outside the park. Our results will help park managers evaluate bison population dynamics and explore consequences of management actions and disease control programs.     

Survival probabilities and movements of harbor seals in central California

Harbor seal numbers and population trajectories differ by location in central California. Within San Francisco Bay (SFB) counts have been relatively stable since the 1972 Marine Mammal Protection Act, but in coastal areas like Tomales Bay (TB), counts increased before stabilizing in the 1990s. Emigration, poor survival, and environmental effects have been hypothesized as contributors to differences between trajectories; however, basic demographic data were not available to evaluate these hypotheses. We monitored 32 radio‐tagged adult females (SFB n = 17, TB n = 15) for 20 mo (2011–2013), and estimated survival, resight, and movement probabilities using mark‐resight analyses and multistate mark‐resight models. Annual survival probability for both sites was 0.90 (95% CI = 0.18–0.99). Six seals were observed moving between locations resulting in an estimated probability of 0.042 (95% CI = 0.023–0.076) per month equal movement between sites. Resight probability was less in SFB relative to TB, likely due to differential haul‐out access, area surveyed, visibility, and resight effort. Because of wide confidence intervals and low precision of these first estimates of adult female harbor seal survival in California, this demographic must be further examined to dismiss its contribution to differing population trajectories. Using aerial survey data, we estimated 950 harbor seals in SFB (95% CI = 715–1,184) confirming numbers are still stable.     

Demographic responses to weather fluctuations are context dependent in a long‐lived amphibian

Weather fluctuations have been demonstrated to affect demographic traits in many species. In long‐lived organisms, their impact on adult survival might be buffered by the evolution of traits that reduce variation in interannual adult survival. For example, skipping breeding is an effective behavioral mechanism that may limit yearly variation in adult survival when harsh weather conditions occur; however, this in turn would likely lead to strong variation in recruitment. Yet, only a few studies to date have examined the impact of weather variation on survival, recruitment and breeding probability simultaneously in different populations of the same species. To fill this gap, we studied the impact of spring temperatures and spring rainfall on survival, on reproductive skipping behavior and on recruitment in five populations of a long‐lived amphibian, the yellow‐bellied toad (Bombina variegata). Based on capture–recapture data, our findings demonstrate that survival depends on interactions between age, population and weather variation. Varying weather conditions in the spring result in strong variation in the survival of immature toads, whereas they have little effect on adult toads. Breeding probability depends on both the individual's previous reproductive status and on the weather conditions during the current breeding season, leading to high interannual variation in recruitment. Crucially, we found that the impact of weather variation on demographic traits is largely context dependent and may thus differ sharply between populations. Our results suggest that studies predicting the impact of climate change on population dynamics should be taken with caution when the relationship between climate and demographic traits is established using only one population or few populations. We therefore highly recommend further research that includes surveys replicated in a substantial number of populations to account for context‐dependent variation in demographic processes.     

Sex,growth rate,rank order after brood reduction,and hatching date affect first‐year survival of long‐lived Herring Gulls

Among most species of birds, survival from hatching throughout the first year of life is generally lower than subsequent survival rates. Survival of young birds during their first year may depend on a combination of selection, learning, unpredictable resources, and environmental events (i.e., post‐fledging factors). However, knowledge about post‐fledging development in long‐lived species is usually limited due to a lengthy immature stage when individuals are generally unobservable. Therefore, pre‐fledging characteristics are often used to predict the survival of young birds. We assessed effects of nestling growth rates, hatching date, hatching asynchrony, brood size and rank order after brood reduction, and sex on first‐year survival of 137 fledglings using a mark‐resighting analysis. We found that the survival probability (Φ_1yr = 0.39) of first‐year Herring Gulls (Larus argentatus) in our study colony located at the outer port of Zeebrugge (Belgium) was lower than that of older individuals (Φ_>1yr = 0.75). All 10 models best supported by our data included nestling growth rate, suggesting that variability in first‐year survival may be linked primarily to individual variation in growth. First‐year survival was negatively correlated with hatching date and rank order after brood reduction. Hence, carry‐over effects of breeding season events such as timing of breeding, early development, and social status had an influence on survival of Herring Gulls after fledging. Furthermore, we found sex‐biased mortality in first‐year Herring Gulls, with females (Φ_1yr = 0.45) surviving better than males (Φ_1yr = 0.38). Although adult survival is generally regarded as the key parameter driving population trajectories in long‐lived species, juvenile survival has recently been acknowledged as an important source of variability in population growth rates. Thus, increasing our knowledge of factors affecting age‐specific survival rates is necessary to improve our understanding of population dynamics and ultimately life‐history variation.     

Senescence and carryover effects of reproductive performance influence migration,condition, and breeding propensity in a small shorebird

Breeding propensity, the probability that an animal will attempt to breed each year, is perhaps the least understood demographic process influencing annual fecundity. Breeding propensity is ecologically complex, as associations among a variety of intrinsic and extrinsic factors may interact to affect an animal's breeding decisions. Individuals that opt not to breed can be more difficult to detect than breeders, which can (1) lead to difficulty in estimation of breeding propensity, and (2) bias other demographic parameters. We studied the effects of sex, age, and population reproductive success on the survival and breeding propensity of a migratory shorebird, the piping plover (Charadrius melodus ), nesting on the Missouri River. We used a robust design Barker model to estimate true survival and breeding propensity and found survival decreased as birds aged and did so more quickly for males than females. Monthly survival during the breeding season was lower than during migration or the nonbreeding season. Males were less likely to skip breeding (range: 1–17%) than females (range: 3–26%; β_sex = ?0.21, 95% CI: ?0.38 to ?0.21), and both sexes were less likely to return to the breeding grounds following a year of high reproductive success. Birds that returned in a year following relatively high population‐wide reproductive output were in poorer condition than following a year with lower reproductive output. Younger adult birds and females were more likely to migrate from the breeding area earlier than older birds and males; however, all birds stayed on the breeding grounds longer when nest survival was low, presumably because of renesting attempts. Piping plovers used a variety of environmental and demographic cues to inform their reproduction, employing strategies that could maximize fitness on average. Our results support the “disposable soma” theory of aging and follow with predictions from life history theory, exhibiting the intimate connections among the core ecological concepts of senescence, carryover effects, and life history.     

Age-specific survival and reproductive performances in fur seals: evidence of senescence and individual quality

Life history theory hypothesises that breeding events induce reproductive costs that may vary among individuals. However, the growing number of studies addressing this question are taxonomically biased, therefore impeding the generalisation of this hypothesis, especially with regard to marine top predators. This study investigated age‐related survival and breeding performances in subantarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus tropicalis) females from Amsterdam Island, southern Indian Ocean. Using multistate capture–recapture models on data obtained from known‐age tagged females over eight consecutive years, we tested for evidence of senescence, individual quality, and reproductive costs in terms of future survival and fecundity. Adult female yearly survival appeared high and constant throughout time. While a two age‐class model was preferred in non‐breeders, breeding females exhibited three age classes with a maximum survival for the prime‐age class (7–12 years). Survival and reproductive probabilities decreased from 13 years onward, suggesting senescence in this population. Survival was lower for non‐breeders than for breeders, among both prime‐aged (0.938 vs 0.982) and older (0.676 vs 0.855) females. Furthermore, non‐breeders exhibited higher probabilities of being non‐breeders the following year than did breeders (0.555 vs 0.414). Such results suggest consistency in female breeding performance over years, supporting the hypothesis that non‐breeding tend to occur among lower quality individuals rather than representing an alternative strategy to enhance residual reproductive value. However, the high proportion of females that did not breed during two consecutive years, and the lower probability of being a successful breeder after a greater reproductive effort confirmed the existence of reproductive costs, especially during the second half of the lactation. These results also suggest that younger age‐classes included a higher proportion of lower quality individuals, which are likely to face higher costs of reproduction. Such hypotheses lead to consider the first breeding event as a filter generating a within‐cohort selection process in females.     

Abundance estimation of gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) calves from shore‐based surveys undertaken near Ensenada,Baja California,Mexico, 2004–2006

Gray whale calf abundance was estimated from shore‐based surveys near Ensenada, Baja California, during their northbound migration. Over the course of 129 effort‐days (756.5 observation hours), 162 calves were counted, comprising 42, 41, and 79 calves in 2004, 2005, and 2006, respectively. To estimate the number of undetected calves during the observation periods in 2006, detection probabilities were estimated by simultaneous and independent counts using a Huggins model. The detection probabilities ranged from 0.655 to 0.997. The number of calves estimated during effort periods were divided by their estimated detection probabilities, while the total number of calves were estimated by fitting a generalized additive model (GAM) to the passage rate (whales/h) and effort (time) data. The final gray whale calf abundance estimates were 451 (95% CI = 430, 513), 253 (95% CI= 245, 308), and 442 (95% CI = 396, 510) calves for 2004, 2005, and 2006, respectively. The estimates were lower than those reported for Piedras Blancas, California, during the same years, with one possible reason being that an important number of cow/calf pairs migrate too far from shore (>10 km) to be detected from the observation site used in this research.     

Laying date,body mass and tick infestation of nestling tropical Roseate Terns Sterna dougallii predict fledging success,first‐year survival and age at first return to the natal colony

Both intrinsic and extrinsic factors recorded at individual nests can predict offspring fitness and survival but few studies have examined these effects in the tropics. We recorded nestling survival, post‐fledging survival and age at first return of Roseate Terns breeding at Aride Island, Seychelles, over a 12‐year period (1998–2009). Nest data recorded at the egg, nestling and fledging stages were collected during six breeding seasons (1998, 2001–2005) and a capture‐mark‐recapture dataset of six cohorts of fledglings was obtained from 2001–2009. Logistic regression models were used to assess the predictive effect of reproductive variables on fledging success, while multistate capture‐mark‐recapture models were used to estimate post‐fledging survival and return–recruitment probabilities to the natal site. Nestling survival probability increased with earliness of laying and was negatively affected by tick infestation during the growth period (0–23 days). Fledging probability was also positively related to chick body condition, whereas other pre‐fledging reproductive parameters such as clutch size and egg size were not influential. A multistate modelling of age‐specific survival and return–recruitment (transition) rates found that first‐year survival differed between cohorts and was also negatively affected by tick infestation. Annual survival stabilized from age 2 onwards at 0.83 ± 0.02. Transition rates were positively related to body condition at fledging, with heavier individuals returning for the first time to the natal colony at a younger age compared with lighter individuals. These results highlight the importance of local conditions encountered by tropical seabirds during the breeding season in shaping demographic parameters.     

Variations in age‐ and sex‐specific survival rates help explain population trend in a discrete marine mammal population

Understanding the drivers underlying fluctuations in the size of animal populations is central to ecology, conservation biology, and wildlife management. Reliable estimates of survival probabilities are key to population viability assessments, and patterns of variation in survival can help inferring the causal factors behind detected changes in population size. We investigated whether variation in age‐ and sex‐specific survival probabilities could help explain the increasing trend in population size detected in a small, discrete population of bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus off the east coast of Scotland. To estimate annual survival probabilities, we applied capture–recapture models to photoidentification data collected from 1989 to 2015. We used robust design models accounting for temporary emigration to estimate juvenile and adult survival, multistate models to estimate sex‐specific survival, and age models to estimate calf survival. We found strong support for an increase in juvenile/adult annual survival from 93.1% to 96.0% over the study period, most likely caused by a change in juvenile survival. Examination of sex‐specific variation showed weaker support for this trend being a result of increasing female survival, which was overall higher than for males and animals of unknown sex. Calf survival was lower in the first than second year; a bias in estimating third‐year survival will likely exist in similar studies. There was some support first‐born calf survival being lower than for calves born subsequently. Coastal marine mammal populations are subject to the impacts of environmental change, increasing anthropogenic disturbance and the effects of management measures. Survival estimates are essential to improve our understanding of population dynamics and help predict how future pressures may impact populations, but obtaining robust information on the life history of long‐lived species is challenging. Our study illustrates how knowledge of survival can be increased by applying a robust analytical framework to photoidentification data.     

Understanding predation risk and individual variation in risk avoidance for threatened boreal caribou

Predation risk is a driver of species’ distributions. Animals can increase risk avoidance in response to fluctuations in predation risk, but questions remain regarding individual variability and the capacity to respond to changes in spatial risk across human‐altered landscapes. In northeast British Columbia, Canada, boreal caribou populations declined as roads and seismic lines have increased, which are theorized to increase gray wolf predation. Our goal was to model risk and to evaluate individual variability and the development of risk perception by examining individual risk avoidance in response to reproductive status and age. We used locations from collared caribou and wolves to identify landscape features associated with the risk of a potential wolf‐caribou encounter and risk of being killed given an encounter. We built resource selection functions to estimate individual responses to risk. We used general linear regressions to evaluate individual risk and linear feature avoidance as a function of age and reproductive status (calf or no calf). Linear features increased the risk of encounter. Older caribou and caribou with calves demonstrated stronger avoidance of the risk of encounter and roads, but weaker avoidance in late summer to the risk of being killed relative to younger and calf‐less individuals. Mechanisms explaining the inverse relationships between the risk of encounter and risk of being killed are uncertain, but it is conceivable that caribou learn to avoid the risk of encounter and roads. Responses by females with vulnerable calves to the risk of encounter and risk of being killed might be explained by a trade‐off between these two risk types and a prioritization on the risk of encounter. Despite the capacity to alter their responses to risk, the global decline in Rangifer populations (caribou and wild reindeer) suggests these behaviors are insufficient to mitigate the impacts of anthropogenic disturbances.     

Reproductive characteristics of female Bengal tigers,in Ranthambhore Tiger Reserve,India

Reproductive characteristics of tigers (Panthera tigris) are important to understand population viability. We studied the reproductive parameters of female Bengal tigers (P. t. tigris) in a dry, tropical, deciduous habitat in Ranthambhore Tiger Reserve (RTR), western India, from April 2005 to March 2010. We monitored tigers by direct observation and with cameras placed throughout their habitat. The potential breeding population included 13 adult females. The average age at first reproduction was 3.3 years; 34 cubs were born during the study period (6.2?±?0.82 per year). Sixty-six percent of the births occurred between October and December. Mean litter size was 2.26?±?0.52 (n?=?13, range?=?1–3). The sex ratio of 32 cubs was 1.29 M:1.00 F. The survival rate of cubs (<12 months) was 85 % (95 % CI?=?0.68–0.94), whereas that of juveniles (12–24 months), and subadults (24–36 months) was 79 % (95 % CI?=?0.61–0.91). All breeding females were >3 years old. Only 2 of the 13 females reproduced twice during the 5 years of the study. The birth interval was 33.4?±?3.7 months (range 24–65 months). The mean reproductive rate was 0.59?±?0.23 cubs/female/year. Our study indicates that tiger populations can grow rapidly if the habitat provides adequate protection, an adequate population of prey, and minimal to no poaching.