Covariation between mean vole density and variability drives the numerical response of storks to vole prey

Hušek et al. (Popul Ecol 55:363–375, 2013 ) showed that the numerical response of storks to vole prey was stronger in regions where variability in vole density was higher. This finding is, at first sight, in contradiction with the predictions of life-history theory in stochastic environments. Since the stork productivity-vole density relationship is concave, theory predicts a negative association between the temporal variability in vole density and stork productivity. Here, we illustrate this negative effect of vole variability on stork productivity with a simple mathematical model relating expected stork productivity to vole dynamics. When comparing model simulations to the observed mean density and variability of thirteen Czech and Polish vole populations, we find that the observed positive effect of vole variability on stork numerical response is most likely due to an unusual positive correlation between mean and variability of vole density.     

Cyclicity and variability in prey dynamics strengthens predator numerical response: the effects of vole fluctuations on white stork productivity

Theory predicts that optimality of life-long investment in reproduction is, among other factors, driven by the variability and predictability of the resources. Similarly, during the breeding season, single resource pulses characterized by short periods and high amplitudes enable strong numerical responses in their consumers. However, it is less well established how spatio-temporal dynamics in resource supplies influence the spatio-temporal variation of consumer reproduction. We used the common vole (Microtus arvalis)—white stork (Ciconia ciconia) resource—consumer model system to test the effect of increased temporal variation and periodicity of vole population dynamics on the strength of the local numerical response of storks. We estimated variability, cycle amplitude, and periodicity (by means of direct and delayed density dependence) in 13 Czech and Polish vole populations. Cross-correlation between annual stork productivity and vole abundance, characterizing the strength of the local numerical response of storks, increased when the vole population fluctuated more and population cycles were shorter. We further show that the onset of incubation of storks was delayed during the years of higher vole abundance. We demonstrate that high reproductive flexibility of a generalist consumer in tracking the temporal dynamics of its resource is driven by the properties of the local resource dynamics and we discuss possible mechanisms behind these patterns.     

Dissecting geographic variation in population synchrony using the common vole in central Europe as a test bed

Spatial synchrony of population fluctuations is ubiquitous in nature. Theoretical models suggest that correlated environmental stochasticity, dispersal, and trophic interactions are important promoters of synchrony in nature to leave characteristic signatures of distance‐dependent decays in synchrony. Recent refinements of this theory have clarified how distance‐decay curves may steepen if local dynamics are governed by different density‐dependent feedbacks and how synchrony should vary regionally if the importance and correlation of environmental stochasticity is location‐specific. We analysed spatiotemporal data for the common vole, Microtus arvalis from 49 districts in the Czech Republic to examine the pattern of population synchrony between 2000 and 2014. By extending the nonparametric covariation function, we develop a quantitative method that allows a dissection of the effects of distance and additional variables such as altitude on synchrony. To examine the pattern of local synchrony, we apply the noncentered local‐indicators of spatial association (ncLISA) which highlights areas with different degrees of synchrony than expected by the region‐wide average. Additionally, in order to understand the obtained pattern of local spatial correlations, we have regressed LISA results against the proportion of forest in each district. The common vole abundances fluctuated strongly and exhibited synchronous dynamics with the typical tendency for a decline of synchrony with increasing distance but, not with altitude. The correlation between the neighbor districts decreases as the proportion of forest increases. Forested areas are suboptimum habitats and are strongly avoided by common voles. The investigation of spatiotemporal dynamics in animal populations is a key issue in ecology. Although the majority of studies are focused on testing hypotheses about which mechanisms are involved in shaping this dynamics it is crucial to understand the sources of variation involved in order to understand the underlying processes.     

Patterns in grouse and Woodcock Scolopax rusticola hunting yields from central Norway 1901–24 do not support the alternative prey hypothesis for grouse cycles

According to the alternative prey hypothesis, autumn populations of ground-nesting game birds fluctuate in synchrony with vole numbers because generalist predators that mainly eat voles switch to alternative prey, such as eggs and chicks, when vole numbers decline. In hunting statistics from Nord-Trøndelag, central Norway, 1901–24, annual fluctuations in the number of Willow Grouse Lagopus lagopus and Western Capercaillie Tetrao urogallus , but not of Woodcock Scolopax rusticola , were positively related to vole numbers in the current year. Both Woodcock and grouse indices were related to hunting indices of Goshawk Accipiter gentilis and to weather variables assumed to influence the birds' survival or reproduction, suggesting that the indices actually reflected local population levels. Synchronous vole and grouse fluctuations are consistent with the alternative prey hypothesis (although predator densities were low in the early 1900s), but the asynchronous Woodcock fluctuations refute the hypothesis. Rather, because the Woodcock does not feed on plants utilized by voles and grouse, I suggest that food quality is the ultimate factor for the synchrony in vole and grouse numbers in Norway.     

Long-term pattern of population dynamics in the field vole from central Europe: cyclic pattern with amplitude dampening

The subject of population cycles is regarded as controversial due to a number of unsettled questions such as whether or not cyclic patterns are governed by the same processes at high and low latitudes in Europe. Recent evidence suggests that the dynamics at high and low latitudes share the common temporal pattern of vole dynamics referred to as collapsing population cycles. Despite concurrent interest, the key contention around the causal mechanisms that drive population cycles remains a hot topic in ecology. The aims of this study are to supplement information on the seasonal population dynamics of the field vole Microtus agrestis in the Czech Republic by analysing 25 years of time series data. By applying robust estimation procedures, we estimated several parameters to describe population dynamics, such as population variability, amplitude dampening, cycle period, order of the dynamics and the structure of density dependence. The parameters indicate that field vole dynamics in central Europe are highly variable, cyclic dynamics of order two, with peaks in abundance occurring regularly at intervals of 4–5 years. In addition to exhibiting population cycles, the field vole populations show a pattern of dampened amplitude as observed elsewhere in Europe, including northern latitudes. By analysing temporal trends in seasonal abundances, population growth rates and environmental temperatures, we did not obtain evidence to support the hypothesis that amplitude dampening results from the negative effect of increasingly mild winters on winter population growth rates.     

Reproductive responses of temperate and boreal Tengmalm's Owl Aegolius funereus populations to spatial and temporal variation in prey availability

Environmental variation across space and time can strongly influence life‐history strategies in vertebrates. It has been shown that the reproductive success of birds of prey is closely related to food availability. However, relatively little is known about intraspecific differences in reproductive success of birds in relation to varying ecological conditions across environmental gradients. We investigated the reproductive performance of Tengmalm's Owls Aegolius funereus in a temperate (Czech Republic, 50°N) and a boreal (Finland, 63°N) population in relation to long‐term variations in the abundance of their main prey (small rodents). Prey densities at the northern site were much higher, but there were also large inter‐annual fluctuations and years with steep summer declines of vole densities. Northern owls laid larger clutches but offspring production per nest was similar at both study sites. This resulted from higher nestling mortality in the northern population, especially in nests established later in the season. Despite much greater nesting losses due to predation by Pine Martens Martes martes, productivity at the population level was about four times greater at the temperate site, mainly due to the much higher breeding densities compared with Finland. Tengmalm's Owls at the temperate study site may benefit from relatively stable prey abundance, a more diverse prey community that offers alternative prey during vole scarcity, longer nights in summer that allow more time for foraging, and a lower level of interspecific competition with other vole‐specialized predators.     

Ocean Productivity May Predict Recruitment of the Rainbow Wrasse (Coris julis)

Predicting recruitment fluctuations of fish populations remains the Holy Grail of fisheries science. While previous work has linked recruitment of reef fish to environmental variables including temperature, the demonstration of a robust relationship with productivity remains elusive. Despite decades of research, empirical evidence to support this critical link remains limited. Here we identify a consistent and strong relationship between recruitment of a temperate wrasse Coris julis, from temperate reefs in the mid-Atlantic region, with Chlorophyll, over contrasting scales, across multiple years. Additionally, we find that the correlation between Chlorophyll and recruitment is not simply masking a temperature-recruitment relationship. Understanding the potential mechanisms underlying recruitment variability, particularly as it relates to changing climate and ocean regimes, is a critical first step towards characterizing species’ vulnerability to mismatches between pulsed planktonic production and early pelagic life stages.     

Inter-Annual Variability of Fledgling Sex Ratio in King Penguins

As the number of breeding pairs depends on the adult sex ratio in a monogamous species with biparental care, investigating sex-ratio variability in natural populations is essential to understand population dynamics. Using 10 years of data (2000–2009) in a seasonally monogamous seabird, the king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus), we investigated the annual sex ratio at fledging, and the potential environmental causes for its variation. Over more than 4000 birds, the annual sex ratio at fledging was highly variable (ranging from 44.4% to 58.3% of males), and on average slightly biased towards males (51.6%). Yearly variation in sex-ratio bias was neither related to density within the colony, nor to global or local oceanographic conditions known to affect both the productivity and accessibility of penguin foraging areas. However, rising sea surface temperature coincided with an increase in fledging sex-ratio variability. Fledging sex ratio was also correlated with difference in body condition between male and female fledglings. When more males were produced in a given year, their body condition was higher (and reciprocally), suggesting that parents might adopt a sex-biased allocation strategy depending on yearly environmental conditions and/or that the effect of environmental parameters on chick condition and survival may be sex-dependent. The initial bias in sex ratio observed at the juvenile stage tended to return to 1∶1 equilibrium upon first breeding attempts, as would be expected from Fisher’s classic theory of offspring sex-ratio variation.     

Distribution of alien animal species richness in the Czech Republic

Biogeographical barriers formed by natural forces over billions of years have been substantially disrupted by human activity, particularly in recent centuries. In response to these anthropogenic changes, global homogenization of biota is observed at an ever‐increasing rate, causing environmental and economic losses as well as emerging health risks. Identifying factors underlying alien species richness is essential for prevention of future introductions and subsequent spread. In this study, we examined the effects of environmental and human‐related factors on distribution of alien animal species richness in the Czech Republic (Central Europe). We compiled a set of maps showing the level of invasion of six categories of alien animal species in each of 628 grid cells (ca. 12.0 × 11.1 km) covering the Czech Republic. Relationships between alien species richness and 12 variables characterizing climatic conditions, topography, land cover, and human population size were calculated using the generalized least squares method. Species richness of all alien species, of invertebrates, and of terrestrial species showed the strongest positive relationship with mean annual temperature, while the number of black and grey (proposed prominent invaders) and aquatic species was most closely related to the presence of large rivers. Alien vertebrates showed a strong negative relationship with annual precipitation. The highest alien animal species richness was found in and near large population centers and in agricultural landscapes in warm and dry lowlands. The gateways for alien aquatic species are rather large rivers over sport fishing and aquaculture import. Compiled maps create a powerful visual communication tool, useful in development of programs to prevent future introductions.     

Diversity of parental environments increases phenotypic variation in Arabidopsis populations more than genetic diversity but similarly affects productivity

Background and AimsThe observed positive diversity effect on ecosystem functioning has rarely been assessed in terms of intraspecific trait variability within populations. Intraspecific phenotypic variability could stem both from underlying genetic diversity and from plasticity in response to environmental cues. The latter might derive from modifications to a plant’s epigenome and potentially last multiple generations in response to previous environmental conditions. We experimentally disentangled the role of genetic diversity and diversity of parental environments on population productivity, resistance against environmental fluctuations and intraspecific phenotypic variation.MethodsA glasshouse experiment was conducted in which different types of Arabidopsis thaliana populations were established: one population type with differing levels of genetic diversity and another type, genetically identical, but with varying diversity levels of the parental environments (parents grown in the same or different environments). The latter population type was further combined, or not, with experimental demethylation to reduce the potential epigenetic diversity produced by the diversity of parental environments. Furthermore, all populations were each grown under different environmental conditions (control, fertilization and waterlogging). Mortality, productivity and trait variability were measured in each population.Key ResultsParental environments triggered phenotypic modifications in the offspring, which translated into more functionally diverse populations when offspring from parents grown under different conditions were brought together in mixtures. In general, neither the increase in genetic diversity nor the increase in diversity of parental environments had a remarkable effect on productivity or resistance to environmental fluctuations. However, when the epigenetic variation was reduced via demethylation, mixtures were less productive than monocultures (i.e. negative net diversity effect), caused by the reduction of phenotypic differences between different parental origins.ConclusionsA diversity of environmental parental origins within a population could ameliorate the negative effect of competition between coexisting individuals by increasing intraspecific phenotypic variation. A diversity of parental environments could thus have comparable effects to genetic diversity. Disentangling the effect of genetic diversity and that of parental environments appears to be an important step in understanding the effect of intraspecific trait variability on coexistence and ecosystem functioning.     

Recombination in Tula Hantavirus Evolution: Analysis of Genetic Lineages from Slovakia

To examine the evolution of Tula hantavirus (TUL), carried by the European common vole (Microtus arvalis and M. rossiaemeridionalis), we have analyzed genetic variants from Slovakia, the country where the virus is endemic. Phylogenetic analysis (PHYLIP) based on either partial (nucleotides [nt] 441 to 898) or complete N-protein-encoding sequences divided Slovakian TUL variants into two main lineages: (i) strains from eastern Slovakia, which clustered with Russian strains, and (ii) strains from western Slovakia situated closer to those from the Czech Republic. We found genetic diversity of 19% between the two groups and 4% within the western Slovakian TUL strains. Phylogenetic analysis of the 3′ noncoding region (3′-NCR), however, placed the eastern Slovakian strains closer to those from western Slovakia and the Czech Republic, with a greater distance to the Russian strains, suggesting a recombinant nature of the S segment in the eastern Slovakian TUL lineage. A bootscan search of the S-segment sequences of TUL strains revealed at least two recombination points in the S sequences of eastern Slovakian TUL strains (nt 400 to 415 and around 1200) which agreed well with the pattern of amino acid substitutions in the N protein and deletions/insertions in the 3′-NCR of the S segment. These data suggest that homologous recombination events occurred in the evolution of hantaviruses.     

The effects of habitat quality and female size on the productivity of the lesser spotted eagle Aquila pomarina in the light of the alternative prey hypothesis

Habitat quality is an important but insufficiently understood concept in ecology and conservation biology, due to geographic and temporal variation as well as interaction with individual quality. In 1994–2002, we studied the Estonian population of the lesser spotted eagle Aquila pomarina in order to (1) explore the relative contributions of habitat and female size in reproductive success; (2) check for a switch to alternative prey in vole‐poor years and the relevant variation in annual habitat quality as confirmed in the common buzzard Buteo buteo in the same area. We measured five landscape variables, the number of neighbouring conspecifics and the relative size of the female according to large moulted feathers in 77 nesting territories, and related this to the eagles’ productivity in vole‐rich and vole‐poor years. Nesting lesser spotted eagles benefited from heterogeneous landscapes and suffered from the neighbourhood of conspecifics. There was no evidence that different‐sized females used different habitats. In general, female size was positively related to productivity in vole‐poor but not vole‐rich years, but in the presence of competitors, large size appeared to be disadvantageous. The mean annual productivity of the eagle was well correlated with that of the buzzard, both having peaks after every three years. In contrast to the buzzard, the share of voles in the eagle's diet and its habitat quality did not differ significantly between good and poor years. We concluded that despite a superficial ecological similarity to the buzzard, the lesser spotted eagle did not behave as predicted by the alternative prey hypothesis, but the study confirmed that annual variation in prey utilization and relative habitat quality are parts of the same functional response. Non‐switching to alternative prey may be related to a historical foraging strategy, used by the eagles before they spread to agricultural landscapes, since the current effects of body size strongly suggested food shortage in vole‐poor years.     

Spatial dynamics of Microtus vole populations in continuous and fragmented agricultural landscapes

Small mammal populations often exhibit large-scale spatial synchrony, which is purportedly caused by stochastic weather-related environmental perturbations, predation or dispersal. To elucidate the relative synchronizing effects of environmental perturbations from those of dispersal movements of small mammalian prey or their predators, we investigated the spatial dynamics of Microtus vole populations in two differently structured landscapes which experience similar patterns of weather and climatic conditions. Vole and predator abundances were monitored for three years on 28 agricultural field sites arranged into two 120-km-long transect lines in western Finland. Sites on one transect were interconnected by continuous agricultural farmland (continuous landscape), while sites on the other were isolated from one another to a varying degree by mainly forests (fragmented landscape). Vole populations exhibited large-scale (>120 km) spatial synchrony in fluctuations, which did not differ in degree between the landscapes or decline with increasing distance between trapping sites. However, spatial variation in vole population growth rates was higher in the fragmented than in the continuous landscape. Although vole-eating predators were more numerous in the continuous agricultural landscape than in the fragmented, our results suggest that predators do not exert a great influence on the degree of spatial synchrony of vole population fluctuations, but they may contribute to bringing out-of-phase prey patches towards a regional density level. The spatial dynamics of vole populations were similar in both fragmented and continuous landscapes despite inter-landscape differences in both predator abundance and possibilities of vole dispersal. This implies that the primary source of synchronization lies in a common weather-related environment.     

有色环境噪音对空间异质种群动态同步性的影响

随着种群动态和空间结构研究兴趣的增加,激发了大量的有关空间同步性的理论和实验的研究工作。空间种群的同步波动现象在自然界广泛存在,它的影响和原因引起了很多生态学家的兴趣。Moran定理是一个非常重要的解释。但以往的研究大多假设环境变化为空间相关的白噪音。越来越多的研究表明很多环境变化的时间序列具有正的时间自相关性,也就是说用红噪音来描述更加合理。因此,推广经典的Moran效应来处理空间相关红噪音的情形很有必要。利用线性的二阶自回归过程的种群模型,推导了两种群空间同步性与种群动态异质性和环境变化的时间相关性(即环境噪音的颜色)之间的关系。深入分析了种群异质性和噪音颜色对空间同步性的影响。结果表明种群动态异质性不利于空间同步性,但详细的关系比较复杂。而红色噪音的同步能力体现在两方面:一方面,本身的相关性对同步性有贡献;另一方面,环境变化时间相关性可以通过改变种群密度依赖来影响同步性,但对同步性的影响并无一致性的结论,依赖于种群的平均动态等因素。这些结果对理解同步性的机理、利用同步机理来制定物种保护策略和害虫防治都有重要的意义。     

The origin and genetic variability of the Czech sika deer population

Sika deer (Cervus nippon), native to Asia, formed two well-established free-living populations in the Czech Republic over the last century and continue to spread. Sika are also maintained in a large number of enclosures; these continue to introduce new individuals from the places of its origin as well as from other European countries. Despite extensive research into the morphology and ethology of the Czech sika deer, conducted over the last three decades, no study using genetic methods has been done. This study aimed to determine the genetic variability and the geographic origin of the Czech sika deer population. Two mitochondrial markers, the cytochrome b and the control region were analyzed in this study. Analysis of the two markers confirmed that the founder individuals of the Czech population originated from both native island (Japanese Islands) and native mainland (Far East Russia) populations. Results showed that the genetic variability of the Czech sika deer population is lower than the variability of the native Japanese population, but higher than that of the sampled part of the native Russian population. Also, the genetic variability was found to be higher within the samples from enclosures.     

Measuring mast seeding behavior: relationships among population variation,individual variation and synchrony

Mast seeding, or masting, is the variable production of flowers, seeds, or fruit across years more or less synchronously by individuals within a population. A critical issue is the extent to which temporal variation in seed production over a collection of individuals can be viewed as arising from a combination of individual variation and synchrony among individuals. Studies of masting typically quantify such variation in terms of the coefficient of variation (CV). In this paper we examine mathematically how the population CV relates to the mean individual CV and synchrony, concluding that the relationship is a complex one which cannot isolate an overall measure of synchrony, and involves additional factors, principally the number of plants sampled and the mean productivity per plant. Our development suggests some simple approximate relationships of population CV to individual variability, synchrony and the number of individuals. These were found to fit quite well when applied to data from 59 studies which included seed production at the individual level.     

Annual variation in nesting numbers of marine turtles: the effect of sea surface temperature on re-migration intervals

The assessment of marine turtle populations is complicated by large inter‐annual variations in nesting numbers. This variability has been attributed to synchrony in the re‐migration intervals (i.e., intervals between successive nesting years) of individuals. It has been hypothesized that this synchrony arises from environmental variations that affect the feeding conditions at sea. This paper presents the first direct test of this hypothesis. The analysis identifies a significant effect of sea surface temperature on the re‐migration interval in the largest Atlantic population of green turtles.     

Comparison of enumeration and Jolly-Seber estimation of population size in the common voleMicrotus arvalis

Capture-recapture data on common volesMicrotus arvalis (Pallas, 1779) in central Europe have been almost exclusively analysed by means of the enumeration technique (minimum number alive or calendar of catches). Here we compare enumeration and Jolly-Seber (JS) estimation of population size in the common vole using live-trapping data from an alfalfa field-population in southern Moravia, Czech Republic. Over the entire study the enumeration estimate of the population size was smaller by an average of 28% than the JS estimate. The negative bias increased with density, decreased with both capture probability and the survival rate, and was more pronounced in males at high density. We conclude that the method of direct enumeration is not reliable for estimating population size in the common vole.     

A spectral theory for Wright’s inbreeding coefficients and related quantities

Wright’s inbreeding coefficient, F_ST, is a fundamental measure in population genetics. Assuming a predefined population subdivision, this statistic is classically used to evaluate population structure at a given genomic locus. With large numbers of loci, unsupervised approaches such as principal component analysis (PCA) have, however, become prominent in recent analyses of population structure. In this study, we describe the relationships between Wright’s inbreeding coefficients and PCA for a model of K discrete populations. Our theory provides an equivalent definition of F_ST based on the decomposition of the genotype matrix into between and within-population matrices. The average value of Wright’s F_ST over all loci included in the genotype matrix can be obtained from the PCA of the between-population matrix. Assuming that a separation condition is fulfilled and for reasonably large data sets, this value of F_ST approximates the proportion of genetic variation explained by the first (K − 1) principal components accurately. The new definition of F_ST is useful for computing inbreeding coefficients from surrogate genotypes, for example, obtained after correction of experimental artifacts or after removing adaptive genetic variation associated with environmental variables. The relationships between inbreeding coefficients and the spectrum of the genotype matrix not only allow interpretations of PCA results in terms of population genetic concepts but extend those concepts to population genetic analyses accounting for temporal, geographical and environmental contexts.     

Establishing a Statistical Link between Network Oscillations and Neural Synchrony

Pairs of active neurons frequently fire action potentials or “spikes” nearly synchronously (i.e., within 5 ms of each other). This spike synchrony may occur by chance, based solely on the neurons’ fluctuating firing patterns, or it may occur too frequently to be explicable by chance alone. When spike synchrony above chances levels is present, it may subserve computation for a specific cognitive process, or it could be an irrelevant byproduct of such computation. Either way, spike synchrony is a feature of neural data that should be explained. A point process regression framework has been developed previously for this purpose, using generalized linear models (GLMs). In this framework, the observed number of synchronous spikes is compared to the number predicted by chance under varying assumptions about the factors that affect each of the individual neuron’s firing-rate functions. An important possible source of spike synchrony is network-wide oscillations, which may provide an essential mechanism of network information flow. To establish the statistical link between spike synchrony and network-wide oscillations, we have integrated oscillatory field potentials into our point process regression framework. We first extended a previously-published model of spike-field association and showed that we could recover phase relationships between oscillatory field potentials and firing rates. We then used this new framework to demonstrate the statistical relationship between oscillatory field potentials and spike synchrony in: 1) simulated neurons, 2) in vitro recordings of hippocampal CA1 pyramidal cells, and 3) in vivo recordings of neocortical V4 neurons. Our results provide a rigorous method for establishing a statistical link between network oscillations and neural synchrony.