A Reflective Lens: Applying Critical Systems Thinking and Visual Methods to Ecohealth Research

Critical systems methodology has been advocated as an effective and ethical way to engage with the uncertainty and conflicting values common to ecohealth problems. We use two contrasting case studies, coral reef management in the Philippines and national park management in Australia, to illustrate the value of critical systems approaches in exploring how people respond to environmental threats to their physical and spiritual well-being. In both cases, we used visual methods—participatory modeling and rich picturing, respectively. The critical systems methodology, with its emphasis on reflection, guided an appraisal of the research process. A discussion of these two case studies suggests that visual methods can be usefully applied within a critical systems framework to offer new insights into ecohealth issues across a diverse range of socio-political contexts. With this article, we hope to open up a conversation with other practitioners to expand the use of visual methods in integrated research.     

Comparative Risk Assessment Methods and Their Applicability to Dredged Material Management Decision-Making

This article reviews the status of comparative risk assessment within the context of environmental decision-making; evaluates its potential application as a decision-making framework for selecting alternative technologies for dredged material management; and makes recommendations for implementing such a framework. One of the most important points from this review for decision-making is that comparative risk assessment, however conducted, is an inherently subjective, value-laden process. There is some objection to this lack of total scientific objectivity (“hard version” of comparative risk assessment). However, the “hard versions” provide little help in suggesting a method that surmounts the psychology of choice in decision-making schemes. The application of comparative risk assessment in the decision-making process at dredged material management facilities will have an element of value and professional judgment in the process. The literature suggests that the best way to incorporate this subjectivity and still maintain a defensible comparative framework is to develop a method that is logically consistent and allows for uncertainty by comparing risks on the basis of more than one set of criteria, more than one set of categories, and more than one set of experts. It should incorporate a probabilistic approach where necessary and possible, based on management goals.     

Integrating multiple wilderness values into a decision-making model for Denali National Park and Preserve

Decisions about how to manage wilderness recreation in Denali National Park and Preserve require managers to integrate a diverse set of public values, a process that typically involves balancing tradeoffs among multiple and often competing values. While decisions about how to manage wilderness are often contentious, previous research suggests that if managers are able to predict public support for various management alternatives the decisions become more tractable. This study develops a decision-making model that integrates social, resource, and managerial values associated with the Denali wilderness experience. Specifically, stated choice analysis is used to evaluate the choices overnight wilderness visitors make when faced with hypothetical tradeoffs among the conditions of social, resource, and management attributes of the Denali wilderness. Study findings offer an empirical approach for predicting and evaluating the likelihood of public support for Denali wilderness management alternatives.     

The Influence of Diverse Values,Ecological Structure,and Geographic Context on Residents’ Multifaceted Landscaping Decisions

Previous research has examined the influence of values on human-ecological decisions, yet disparate approaches render inferences across studies difficult. In this paper, we present a robust conceptualization of values, encompassing general life values, broad-based environmental orientations, and specific yard priorities, while comparatively examining how these influence residents’ land-management practices. Coupling a social survey with observational field data in Phoenix, Arizona, we address how 1) diverse values affect residents’ multifaceted landscaping practices, 2) yard structure impacts water and chemical applications, and 3) land management varies across distinctive geographic contexts. Overall, values were not strongly related to land management decisions. Of those that were significant, most were related to groundcover and herbicide use. Yet diverse environmental values influenced landscaping practices in varying and complex ways. In addition, the historic and socioeconomic setting of neighborhoods affect the extent of lawns and related management inputs, while heightened use of pesticides in rock-based, drought-tolerant yards challenges the notion of these lawn alternatives as an environmentally friendly and low maintenance choice.     

The socioeconomic conditions determining the development, persistence, and decline of forest garden systems

There is a range of forest management systems between pure extraction and plantation systems. Such “intermediate systems” range from wild forests modified for increased production of selected products to anthropogenic forests with a high-density of valuable species growing within a relatively diverse and complex structure. These systems, classed here as “Forest Garden Systems” (FGS), have important socioeconomic and ecological benefits, and yet they have been largely overlooked by researchers, development practitioners, and policy makers. Based on case examples and the authors’ experience, this paper analyzes the socioeconomic and institutional factors that explain the development, persistence, and decline of FGS. These systems combine productivity and biodiversity values and are important components in the diverse economic systems of their managers. As such, the model warrants increased attention to protect existing values, to support the adaptation of existing systems to changing circumstances, and to inform the development of new models of integrated forest management     

Practical Decision Methods for Watershed Management

Why are formal statistical methods for risk-based decision-making so seldom used in the practice of watershed management? I contend that complex formal methods, while internally consistent, are often inappropriate to real world decision-making. The primary purpose of risk analysis is to support risk management, and decision methods need to be effective not just in evaluating risk, but also in communicating risk among stakeholders and decision makers. Useful methods must be not only correct, but also readily communicable. Many formal risk-based decision methods have real obstacles to practical application in one of the following areas: (1) many important components of risk that matter to stakeholders are difficult to express in quantitative terms, and any method which turns “fuzzy” information and subjective opinion into hard numbers is prone to be regarded with suspicion; (2) methods which are not understandable and convincing to decision makers have little practical value; (3) a complex formal analysis will be seen as misguided or irrelevant if it does not represent the full spectrum of management goals. This paper compares the process of watershed management with the process of ecological risk assessment, highlighting similarities and key differences. A practical decision method which balances quantitative rigor with ability to communicate to and forge consensus among stakeholders is then outlined with reference to a successful case study.     

Horizon scanning for invasive alien species with the potential to threaten biodiversity in Great Britain

Invasive alien species (IAS) are considered one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, particularly through their interactions with other drivers of change. Horizon scanning, the systematic examination of future potential threats and opportunities, leading to prioritization of IAS threats is seen as an essential component of IAS management. Our aim was to consider IAS that were likely to impact on native biodiversity but were not yet established in the wild in Great Britain. To achieve this, we developed an approach which coupled consensus methods (which have previously been used for collaboratively identifying priorities in other contexts) with rapid risk assessment. The process involved two distinct phases:

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A practical tool for assessing ecosystem services enhancement and degradation associated with invasive alien species

Current approaches for assessing the effects of invasive alien species (IAS) are biased toward the negative effects of these species, resulting in an incomplete picture of their real effects. This can result in an inefficient IAS management. We address this issue by describing the INvasive Species Effects Assessment Tool (INSEAT) that enables expert elicitation for rapidly assessing the ecological consequences of IAS using the ecosystem services (ES) framework. INSEAT scores the ecosystem service “gains and losses” using a scale that accounted for the magnitude and the reversibility of its effects. We tested INSEAT on 18 IAS in Great Britain. Here, we highlighted four case studies: Harmonia axyridis (Harlequin ladybird), Astacus leptodactylus (Turkish crayfish), Pacifastacus leniusculus (Signal crayfish) and Impatiens glandulifera (Himalayan balsam). The results demonstrated that a collation of different experts’ opinions using INSEAT could yield valuable information on the invasive aliens’ ecological and social effects. The users can identify certain IAS as ES providers and the trade‐offs between the ES provision and loss associated with them. This practical tool can be useful for evidence‐based policy and management decisions that consider the potential role of invasive species in delivering human well‐being.     

Towards a more open debate about values in decision-making on agricultural biotechnology

Regulatory decision-making over the use of products of new technology aims to be based on science-based risk assessment. In some jurisdictions, decision-making about the cultivation of genetically modified (GM) plants is blocked supposedly because of scientific uncertainty about risks to the environment. However, disagreement about the acceptability of risks is primarily a dispute over normative values, which is not resolvable through natural sciences. Natural sciences may improve the quality and relevance of the scientific information used to support environmental risk assessments and make scientific uncertainties explicit, but offer little to resolve differences about values. Decisions about cultivating GM plants will thus not necessarily be eased by performing more research to reduce scientific uncertainty in environmental risk assessments, but by clarifying the debate over values. We suggest several approaches to reveal values in decision-making: (1) clarifying policy objectives; (2) determining what constitutes environmental harm; (3) making explicit the factual and normative premises on which risk assessments are based; (4) better demarcating environmental risk assessment studies from ecological research; (5) weighing the potential for environmental benefits (i.e., opportunities) as well as the potential for environmental harms (i.e., risks); and (6) expanding participation in the risk governance of GM plants. Recognising and openly debating differences about values will not remove controversy about the cultivation of GM plants. However, by revealing what is truly in dispute, debates about values will clarify decision-making criteria.     

How to Decide Whether to Move Species Threatened by Climate Change

Introducing species to areas outside their historical range to secure their future under climate change is a controversial strategy for preventing extinction. While the debate over the wisdom of this strategy continues, such introductions are already taking place. Previous frameworks for analysing the decision to introduce have lacked a quantifiable management objective and mathematically rigorous problem formulation. Here we develop the first rigorous quantitative framework for deciding whether or not a particular introduction should go ahead, which species to prioritize for introduction, and where and how to introduce them. It can also be used to compare introduction with alternative management actions, and to prioritise questions for future research. We apply the framework to a case study of tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus) in New Zealand. While simple and accessible, this framework can accommodate uncertainty in predictions and values. It provides essential support for the existing IUCN guidelines by presenting a quantitative process for better decision-making about conservation introductions.     

Prioritizing Biosecurity Risks Using a Participatory Decision-Making Tool

A decision framework called Deliberative Multi-Criteria Evaluation (DMCE) was developed and deployed to prioritize biosecurity risks using a variety of subjective and objective information. To aid stakeholders in the prioritization of Emergency Plant Pest (EPP) species risk, we presented them with outputs from a Stella-based bio-economic pest risk model, and probable ecological and socioeconomic impacts. The stakeholder participants weighted the consequence criteria they deemed to have the highest expected impact. The methodology featured an uncertain set of parameters, multiple iterations of criteria weighting along with real-time sensitivity analysis. Of the five criteria, economic cost was weighted the highest at 26% while landscape amenity was weighted the lowest at the 10–12% range. The increased understanding and support gained by stakeholders through the DMCE process provided a greater likelihood of the sanctioning of the policies concerned and progress toward desired outcomes.     

Estimating the financial costs of freshwater invasive species in Great Britain: a standardized approach to invasive species costing

Both ecological and economic impacts factor into invasive alien species (IAS) management considerations; however, economic impacts are often difficult to assess, much less quantify. Studies frequently aggregate identified financial costs as a proxy for IAS economic impacts, but these aggregate figures are often generated in an ad hoc fashion. Such estimates typically sum disparate costs, which might vary with respect to precision, accuracy, and scope. A standardized approach for IAS costing would better enable the comparison of cost estimates between taxa and across studies by controlling for surveying and scaling inconsistencies. This study develops a simple, survey-based approach to generate economic cost estimates for non-native freshwater invasive species (FIS) in Great Britain. The approach scales an average cost for each species by a ratio of management effort, thereby estimating the actual, annual expenditures incurred by a variety of stakeholders. The Great Britain-wide cost of controlling FIS is estimated to be approximately ￡26.5 million year⁻¹; however, the costs of control could total ￡43.5 million year⁻¹ if management efforts were undertaken at all FIS infested locations. Cost estimates are highest for Canadian pondweed (Elodea canadensis), a particularly widespread species, and for the zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha), which adversely impacts both industrial water users and boaters. This assessment of the relative economic impacts between species provides policy-makers with a monetary basis for rank-ordering species’ economic impacts and prioritizing management efforts. In addition, the cost assessment approach developed in this study could serve as a model for IAS economic impact assessments elsewhere.     

Climate change,uncertainty, and natural resource management

Climate change and its associated uncertainties are of concern to natural resource managers. Although aspects of climate change may be novel (e.g., system change and nonstationarity), natural resource managers have long dealt with uncertainties and have developed corresponding approaches to decision-making. Adaptive resource management is an application of structured decision-making for recurrent decision problems with uncertainty, focusing on management objectives, and the reduction of uncertainty over time. We identified 4 types of uncertainty that characterize problems in natural resource management. We examined ways in which climate change is expected to exacerbate these uncertainties, as well as potential approaches to dealing with them. As a case study, we examined North American waterfowl harvest management and considered problems anticipated to result from climate change and potential solutions. Despite challenges expected to accompany the use of adaptive resource management to address problems associated with climate change, we conclude that adaptive resource management approaches will be the methods of choice for managers trying to deal with the uncertainties of climate change. © 2010 The Wildlife Society.     

En-case-ing the Patient: Disciplining Uncertainty in Medical Student Patient Presentations

The problem-oriented medical record is the widespread, standardized format for presenting and recording information about patients, which is taught to future physicians early in their medical training. Based on our participant observation of medical training, we analyze the ways in which the patient presentation operates in medical training as a disciplinary technology that manages uncertainty in the clinical decision-making process. We uncover various mechanisms at work including the construction of a coherent narrative structure in which chaotic experiences are re-organized and re-interpreted to fit neatly in a linear plot with a predictable ending, the atomization of the patient as a whole into separable “problems,” the attempt to solve these “problems” as though they are independent of one another, and the mystification of translations in scale, which give rise to much of the uncertainty in medicine. Operating at the boundary of the chaotic and often ungraspable world of the suffering experience of the patient and the highly structured realm of the medical record, a patient presentation is one medium through which both a disciplined record of experience and disciplined medical practitioners are produced. This process functions to transform the human subject patient into a recognizable, generic clinical case, and the medical student into an identifiable, professional future physician.     

Bayesian adaptive survey protocols for resource management

Transparency in resource management decisions requires a proper accounting of uncertainty at multiple stages of the decision-making process. As information becomes available, periodic review and updating of resource management protocols reduces uncertainty and improves management decisions. One of the most basic steps to mitigating anthropogenic effects on populations is determining if a population of a species occurs in an area that will be affected by human activity. Species are rarely detected with certainty, however, and falsely declaring a species absent can cause improper conservation decisions or even extirpation of populations. We propose a method to design survey protocols for imperfectly detected species that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty in the detection process, is capable of quantitatively incorporating expert opinion into the decision-making process, allows periodic updates to the protocol, and permits resource managers to weigh the severity of consequences if the species is falsely declared absent. We developed our method using the giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas), a threatened species precinctive to the Central Valley of California, as a case study. Survey date was negatively related to the probability of detecting the giant gartersnake, and water temperature was positively related to the probability of detecting the giant gartersnake at a sampled location. Reporting sampling effort, timing and duration of surveys, and water temperatures would allow resource managers to evaluate the probability that the giant gartersnake occurs at sampled sites where it is not detected. This information would also allow periodic updates and quantitative evaluation of changes to the giant gartersnake survey protocol. Because it naturally allows multiple sources of information and is predicated upon the idea of updating information, Bayesian analysis is well-suited to solving the problem of developing efficient sampling protocols for species of conservation concern. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Practical Issues in the Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) represents an important step in the evolution of risk assessment methodology to assist decision-making at hazardous waste sites. Despite considerable progress in the development of PRA techniques, regulatory acceptance of PRA has been limited, in part because a number of practical issues in its use must yet be resolved. A recent workshop on PRA identified several areas to be addressed, including the need for: (1) better demonstration of the value of PRA in risk management; (2) PRA training and education opportunities; (3) the development of technical criteria for acceptability of a PRA; (4) policy decisions on acceptable risk distributions; (5) ways to deal with risk communication issues; and (6) a variety of technical issues, including ways to include estimates of variability and uncertainty associated with toxicity values. Solutions to many of these issues will require better dialog between risk assessors and risk managers than has existed in the past.     

Predicting response to reassurances and uncertainties in bioterrorism communications for urban populations in New York and California

Recent national plans for recovery from bioterrorism acts perpetrated in densely populated urban areas acknowledge the formidable technical and social challenges of consequence management. Effective risk and crisis communication is one priority to strengthen the U.S.'s response and resilience. However, several notable risk events since September 11, 2001, have revealed vulnerabilities in risk/crisis communication strategies and infrastructure of agencies responsible for protecting civilian populations. During recovery from a significant biocontamination event, 2 goals are essential: (1) effective communication of changing risk circumstances and uncertainties related to cleanup, restoration, and reoccupancy; and (2) adequate responsiveness to emerging information needs and priorities of diverse populations in high-threat, vulnerable locations. This telephone survey study explored predictors of public reactions to uncertainty communications and reassurances from leaders related to the remediation stage of an urban-based bioterrorism incident. African American and Hispanic adults (N=320) were randomly sampled from 2 ethnically and socioeconomically diverse geographic areas in New York and California assessed as high threat, high vulnerability for terrorism and other public health emergencies. Results suggest that considerable heterogeneity exists in risk perspectives and information needs within certain sociodemographic groups; that success of risk/crisis communication during recovery is likely to be uneven; that common assumptions about public responsiveness to particular risk communications need further consideration; and that communication effectiveness depends partly on preexisting values and risk perceptions and prior trust in leaders. Needed improvements in communication strategies are possible with recognition of where individuals start as a reference point for reasoning about risk information, and comprehension of how this influences subsequent interpretation of agencies' actions and communications.     

Rewilding Shouldn’t Be Reactive: Fragas do Eume Natural Park in the Face of an Invasive Alien Species

Rewilding is growing worldwide as a conservation approach to face the restoration of all natural processes that are suppressed or degraded by human action. After plenty of theoretical discussion and some limited experimental practices, rewilding remained conceptually open and diverse with regard to its operational framework. However, little was discussed with regards invasive alien species (IAS) management within rewilding. Hence, the aim of this research is to bridge the gap between these two bodies of theory. To do so, this work explores, in situ, a protected area in which rewilding is discoursively expressed as a form of native forest conservation. Based on a qualitative approach, the results gather stakeholders’ discourses on the institutional advocacy for rewilding, expressed as a form of incentivizing land abandonment and hence leading to a decline in the plantation of invasive blue gums (Eucalyptus globulus). The research poses a discussion on the problematic assimilation that rewilding and IAS management may have when informally combined. Lastly, it is concluded that, when executed in coexistence with IAS, rewilding projects should elude reactive positions and, instead, formalize agreed restoration programs, so that conflictive IAS can be consensually treated together with landowners.     

A hybrid life cycle assessment model for comparison with conventional methodologies in Australia

Background, aim, and scope  

One barrier to the further implementation of LCA as a quantitative decision-support tool is the uncertainty created by the diversity of available analytical approaches. This paper compares conventional (‘process analysis’) and alternative (‘input–output analysis’) approaches to LCA, and presents a hybrid LCA model for Australia that overcomes the methodological limitations of process and input–output analysis and enables a comparison between the results achieved using each method. A case study from the water industry illustrates this comparison.