The Role of Density Regulation in Extinction Processes and Population Viability Analysis

We review the role of density dependence in the stochastic extinction of populations and the role density dependence has played in population viability analysis (PVA) case studies. In total, 32 approaches have been used to model density regulation in theoretical or applied extinction models, 29 of them are mathematical functions of density dependence, and one approach uses empirical relationships between density and survival, reproduction, or growth rates. In addition, quasi-extinction levels are sometimes applied as a substitute for density dependence at low population size. Density dependence further has been modelled via explicit individual spacing behaviour and/or dispersal. We briefly summarise the features of density dependence available in standard PVA software, provide summary statistics about the use of density dependence in PVA case studies, and discuss the effects of density dependence on extinction probability. The introduction of an upper limit for population size has the effect that the probability of ultimate extinction becomes 1. Mean time to extinction increases with carrying capacity if populations start at high density, but carrying capacity often does not have any effect if populations start at low numbers. In contrast, the Allee effect is usually strong when populations start at low densities but has only a limited influence on persistence when populations start at high numbers. Contrary to previous opinions, other forms of density dependence may lead to increased or decreased persistence, depending on the type and strength of density dependence, the degree of environmental variability, and the growth rate. Furthermore, effects may be reversed for different quasi-extinction levels, making the use of arbitrary quasi-extinction levels problematic. Few systematic comparisons of the effects on persistence between different models of density dependence are available. These effects can be strikingly different among models. Our understanding of the effects of density dependence on extinction of metapopulations is rudimentary, but even opposite effects of density dependence can occur when metapopulations and single populations are contrasted. We argue that spatially explicit models hold particular promise for analysing the effects of density dependence on population viability provided a good knowledge of the biology of the species under consideration exists. Since the results of PVAs may critically depend on the way density dependence is modelled, combined efforts to advance statistical methods, field sampling, and modelling are urgently needed to elucidate the relationships between density, vital rates, and extinction probability.     

Monitoring tiger populations using intensive search in a capture–recapture framework

Tigers (Panthera tigris) today face multiple threats to their survival in the form of habitat loss, poaching, depletion of wild prey through illegal hunting and loss of connectivity between populations. Monitoring of tigers is crucial to evaluate their status and react adaptively to management problems. Though camera traps are becoming increasingly popular with researchers enumerating cryptic and elusive animals, they have not been embedded in the regular management activities of tiger reserves. Tiger monitoring, though an important part of the management, is usually implemented using the unreliable pugmark approach. Camera trap-based studies are few, usually of short duration, and are generally conducted by individual scientists and organizations. In this study, we integrate photographic mark–recapture with the routine activity of searching and locating tigers for tourist viewing by the park management in meadows of Kanha Tiger Reserve which form a part of the tourism zone. We validate the density estimates from “tiger search approach” against those obtained from camera trapping and radio-telemetry conducted in conjunction in the same area. Tiger density (( hat{D} ) (SE [( hat{D} )]) per 100 km² for camera traps and tiger search, respectively, was estimated at 12.0 (1.95) and 12.0 (1.76) when effective trapping area was estimated using the half mean maximum distance moved (½ MMDM), 7.6 (1.94) and 7.5 (1.97) using the home range radius, 7.3 (1.49) and 7.5 (1.97) with the full MMDM, and 8.0 (3.0) and 6.88 (2.39) with the spatial likelihood method in Program DENSITY 4.1. Camera trapping, however, was five times more expensive than the tiger search method. Our study suggests that “tiger search approach” can be used as a regular monitoring tool in the tourism zones of tiger reserves, where often most of the source populations are located.     

Extrapolation methods for climate time series revisited – Spatial correlations in climatic fluctuations influence simulated tree species abundance and migration

Simulations of tree population dynamics under past and future climatic changes with time- and space-discrete models often suffer from a lack of detailed long-term climate time series that are required to drive these models. Inter- and extrapolation methods which are applied to generate long-term series differ in terms of whether they do or do not account for spatial correlation of climatic fluctuations. In this study we compared tree species abundance and migration outcomes from simulations using extrapolation methods generating spatially correlated (SC) and spatially independent (SI) climatic fluctuations. We used the spatially explicit and linked forest-landscape model TreeMig and a simple cellular automaton to demonstrate that spatial correlation of climatic fluctuations affects simulation outcomes. We conclude that methods to generate long-term climate time series should account for the spatial correlation of climatic fluctuations found in available climate records when simulating tree species abundance and migration.     

Habitat destruction in mutualistic metacommunities

We investigate a mutualistic metacommunity where the strength of the mutualistic interaction between species is measured by the extent to which the presence of one species on a patch either reduces the extinction rate of the others present on the same patch or increases their ability to colonize other patches. In both cases, a strong enough mutualism enables all species to persist at habitat densities where they would all be extinct in the absence of the interaction. However, a mutualistic interaction that enhances colonization enables the species to persist at lower habitat density than one that suppresses extinction. All species abruptly go extinct (catastrophe) when the habitat density is decreased infinitesimally below a critical value. A comparison of the mean field or spatially implicit case with unrestricted dispersal and colonization to all patches in the system with a spatially explicit case where dispersal is restricted to the immediate neighbours of the original patch leads to the intriguing conclusion that restricted dispersal can be favourable for species that have a beneficial effect on each other when habitat conditions are adverse. When the mutualistic interaction is strong enough, the extinction threshold or critical amount of habitat required for the persistence of all species is lower when the dispersal is locally restricted than when unrestricted ! The persistence advantage for all species created by the mutualistic interaction increases substantially with the number of species in the metacommunity, as does the advantage for restricted dispersal over global dispersal.     

Modelling the morphological response to nutrient availability in the clonal plant Trientalis europaea L.

The morphological responses to changes in environmental quality shown by many clonal plants have been interpreted as an expression of foraging behaviour, as they allow the ramets to become concentrated in more favourable microhabitats. The morphological response to increased nutrient availability in the pseudoannual plant Trientalis europaea was studied in a field experiment. The response was largely size-dependent and consistent with enhanced clonal growth. Fertilized ramets produced more tubers and a larger main tuber. In contrast, stolon length was not affected by the treatment. A spatially explicit simulation model calibrated with data from the field experiment examined the population dynamics of T. europaea ramets in a spatially hetereogeneous, temporally constant, environment. The model showed that T. europaea was effective at concentrating its ramets in favourable patches, but this process was strongly influenced by patch size. The analysis of this response at the clone level showed that ramet aggregation was mainly due to the enhanced performance of clones located initially in the favourable patches, or clones that located a favourable patch by chance. In these clones, the simultaneous increase of ramet size and survival accelerated the production of ramets. The temporal and spatial scale at which the aggregation of ramets in favourable patches was manifested suggests that the effectiveness of the morphological response in T. europaea is favoured by a high spatio-temporal predictability in the environment. Overall, the model emphasized the important role of population dynamics in understanding the nature of the foraging response.     

Spatial distribution of soil seed banks of three African savanna woody species at two contrasting sites

In southern African savannas, bush encroachment is a major problem for range managers. However, little is understood of the actual regeneration processes leading to it, and in particular the role of soil seed banks. The horizontal (between microsites) and vertical (with depth in litter and soil) distribution of soil seed banks of the microphyllous woody species, Acacia tortilis, A. nilotica and Dichrostachys cinerea (all legumes of the Mimosoideae), were quantified in an area with low intensity grazing (reserve), and a bordering cattle farm with high intensity grazing (farm). Species differed in seed bank densities between microsites and sites. Seed densities for all species were highest below parent tree canopies and decreased with distance beyond the canopy, and with soil depth. D. cinerea had the smallest seed bank associated with parent trees, particularly on the farm (8 vs. 1643 seeds/tree on the reserve), A. tortilis had the largest (6357, 31910), with A. nilotica intermediate (1789, 1906). The proportion of current (recently fallen) versus old (1 year old) seeds differed between species and sites. These species form at least short-term persistent seed banks with the old seeds largely representing the persistent seed bank. Seed densities in the open (inter-canopy) and those dispersed under either of the other two (non-parental) study species were much lower than those associated with parent trees. The latter were mostly found under the acacias (single-stemmed) rather than D. cinerea (multistemmed). Total seed store per parent plant increased with plant size (best fits were mostly power curves of canopy area). A large proportion of intact seeds were viable, namely 81–84% for A. tortilis, 68–77% for A. nilotica and 63–78% for D. cinerea, with no differences between sites. Viability tended to increase with depth of burial, except for A. nilotica seeds at the 3–5 cm depths on the farm. At the landscape scale there were 1.5 million and 140000 A. tortilis seeds/ha on the reserve and farm respectively, with corresponding values of 2000 and 31000 for D. cinerea, and 23000 and 86000 for A. nilotica.     

Beyond dual-lattice models: Incorporating plant strategies when modeling the interplay between facilitation and competition along environmental severity gradients

We introduce a spatially explicit model that evaluates how the trade-offs between the life strategies of two interacting plant species affect the outcome of their interaction along environmental severity gradients. In our model, we represent the landscape as a two-dimensional lattice, with environmental severity increasing from left to right. Two species with different strategies, a competitor and a stress-tolerant, interact in the lattice. We find that facilitation expands the realized niche of the competitor into harsh environments by suppressing the stress-tolerant species. Most of their coexisting range is dominated by a positive effect of one species on another, with a reciprocal negative effect from the species receiving the benefits on its benefactor (“+, −”), whereas mutualistic (“+, +”) interactions are only found in the harshest part of the environmental gradient. Contrarily as assumed by models commonly used in facilitation research (e.g. dual-lattice models), our results indicate that “+, +” interactions are not dominant, and that their differences with “+, −” interactions along environmental severity gradients depend on the strategies of the interacting species. By integrating the trade-off between competitive ability and stress tolerance, our model provides a new framework to investigate the interplay of facilitative and competitive interactions along environmental gradients and their impacts on processes such as population dynamics and community organization.     

Weak trophic interactions and the balance of enriched metacommunities

Weak trophic interactions have been shown to promote the stability of ecological food webs characterized by perfect mixing. However, their importance at the landscape level and response to enrichment has not been extensively examined. In this paper we examine the food-web model explored by McCann et al. [1998. Weak trophic interactions and the balance of nature. Nature 395, 794-798]. The model is expanded into a metacommunity construct where local communities are coupled through global or local dispersal. We analyze global and local stability, as well as spatial synchrony in relation to trophic interaction strength and dispersal regimes. Results reveal that weak interactions can operate through two scale-dependent mechanisms: (i) under low local dispersal regimes, local stabilization of each community under weak interactions directly scales-up to global stability. (ii) Under high local dispersal, asynchronous local destabilization associated with weak interactions proves the driver behind global stability. In the face of enrichment, weak trophic interactions are shown to be instrumental in promoting global stability when dispersal is local. These results demonstrate how the importance of weak trophic interactions can be generalized at the landscape level despite contrary local predictions.     

Response of predators to prey abundance: separating the effects of prey density and patch size

We tested the relative and combined effects of prey density and patch size on the functional response (number of attacks per unit time and duration of attacks) of a predatory reef fish (Cheilodactylus nigripes (Richardson)) to their invertebrate prey. Fish attacked prey at a greater rate and for longer time in large than small patches of prey, but large patches had naturally greater densities of prey. We isolated the effects of patch size and prey density by reducing the density of prey in larger patches to equal that of small patches; thereby controlling for prey density. We found that the intensity at which fish attacked prey (combination of attack rate and duration) was primarily a response to prey density rather than the size of patch they occupied. However, there was evidence that fish spent more time foraging in larger than smaller patches independent of prey density; presumably because of the greater total number of prey available. These experimental observations suggest that fish can distinguish between different notions of prey abundance in ways that enhance their rate of consumption. Although fish may feed in a density dependent manner, a critical issue is whether their rate of consumption outstrips the rate of increase in prey abundance to cause density dependent mortality of prey.     

Estimating the stocking potential of fish in impoundments by modelling supply and steady‐state demand

1. Fish stocking is an increasingly common management tool for freshwater and marine environments and is often used to create and maintain fisheries in closed waters. The densities at which fish are stocked can have a large impact on a stocking programme’s success and sustainability. Stocking densities in impoundment sport‐fisheries, for example, are often based on social or practical factors, and ecologically based stocking models are needed to assist the selection of stocking densities that are appropriate for the environment. 2. In this study, stocking density is calculated with a numerical model that balances the supply of prey production with the energetic demand of stocked fish. The model aims to deliver outcomes over a range of potential management objectives, by providing specific consumption scenarios that represent the trade‐off between population abundance and individual body size in stocked fisheries. 3. The model uses a steady‐state population approach to calculate stocking density, which optimises population consumption by maintaining a consistent biomass distribution and encourages sustainable stocking by considering the energetic needs of all cohorts. Carrying capacity is represented by the steady‐state stocking density under a minimum consumption scenario (when fish meet only their minimum energetic needs). The comparison between a desired consumption rate and the existing level of production is used to assess the status or ‘health’ of the existing population and is used to determine whether stocking can occur and whether stocking densities can be sustainably increased. The probability of incorrectly assuming populations are achieving a given consumption level is also estimated, which is an ideal approach for interpreting multiple probability distributions. 4. A Monte‐Carlo analysis of uncertainty was used to provide a probability distribution of stocking density of Australian bass (Macquaria novemaculeata) in three Australian impoundments under various seasonal and consumption scenarios. The likely consumption rates of the existing populations were determined using historical stocking densities, which showed that the three populations were of reasonable health, although one impoundment may be overstocked. The steady‐state stocking densities depended on the desired consumption rate, and there was an eightfold difference in the stocking density aimed at providing large ‘trophy’ fish and the density required to reach carrying capacity. 5. Model outputs of existing abundance and biomass density agreed with empirical estimates of abundance and relative density in these impoundments, which provides support to the model’s accuracy. This supply–demand approach to estimating the range of appropriate stocking densities shows promise as a decision‐support tool for stocked impoundments and other closed fisheries.     

Do species population parameters and landscape characteristics affect the relationship between local population abundance and surrounding habitat amount?

In landscape ecology, correlational approaches are typically used to analyse links between local population abundance, and the surrounding habitat amount to estimate biologically-relevant landscape size (extent) for managing endangered or pest populations. The direction, strength, and spatial extent of the correlations are then sometimes interpreted in terms of species population parameters. Here we simulated the population dynamics of generalized species across spatially explicit landscapes that included two distinct habitat types. We investigated how characteristics of a landscape (structure), including the variation in habitat quality and spatial aggregation of the habitat, and the precise population-dynamic properties of the simulated species (dispersal and growth rates) affect the correlation between population abundance and amount of surrounding favourable habitat in the landscape. To evaluate these spatial extents of correlation, proportions of favourable habitat were calculated within several circles of increasing diameter centred on sampling patches of favourable habitat where population abundance was recorded.We found that the value of the correlation coefficients between population abundance and amount of surrounding favourable habitat depended on both population dynamic parameters and landscape characteristics. Coefficients of correlation increased with the variation in habitat quality and the aggregation of favourable habitat in the landscape, but decreased with the dispersal distance. The distance at which the correlation was maximized was sensitive to an interaction between the level of aggregation of the habitat and the dispersal distance; whereas the greatest distance at which a significant correlation occurred was more sensitive to the variation in habitat quality. Our results corroborate the view that correlational analyses do provide information on the local population dynamics of a species in a given habitat type and on its dispersal rate parameters. However, even in simplified, model frameworks, direct relationships are often difficult to disentangle and global landscape characteristics should be reported in any studies intended to derive population-dynamic parameters from correlations. Where possible, replicated landscapes should be examined in order to control for the interaction between population dynamics and landscape structure. Finally, we recommend using species-specific, population-dynamic modelling in order to interpret correctly the observed patterns of correlation in the landscape.     

空间直观景观模型LANDIS Ⅰ．运行机制

空间直观景观模型是指在异质景观中模拟景观尺度上生态过程的空间直观模型．LANDIS是一个用于模拟森林景观干扰、演替和管理的空间直观景观模型．通过在样地尺度上跟踪以10年为间隔的物种年龄级,半定量化地描述火和风倒,及使用位数组表示物种年龄结构,LANDIS能同时在物种、样地和景观尺度上模拟各种生态过程及其相互关系．详细论述了LANDIS模型对种子传播、火、风倒和砍伐等生态过程的模拟,并讨论了模型中存在的一些不足．     

空间直观景观模型在呼中林区土壤侵蚀预测研究中的初步应用

土壤通用流失方程(USLE)已被广泛应用于大尺度的土壤侵蚀预测．在以往的土壤侵蚀研究中,由于只能获得静态的植被图,土壤通用流失方程只能用于土壤侵蚀的静态估算．空间直观景观模型能在大尺度上模拟植被动态,为土壤通用流失方程提供动态的植被因子,从而使土壤侵蚀的动态模拟成为可能．本研究结合空间直观景观模型LANDIS和土壤通用流失修正方程,以大兴安岭呼中林区为研究区。动态地模拟未来650年内有采伐和无采伐预案下的土壤侵蚀量;同时以无火无采伐预案下的土壤侵蚀为对比值．结果表明,土壤侵蚀量随时间变化呈周期性的波动,其波动程度在无火无采伐预案下最小,而在有火无采伐预案下最大;采伐对土壤侵蚀的影响没有火对土壤侵蚀的影响在空间上表现得明显,但是其累积效果则比火的影响强;降低采伐所产生的裸露土能有效降低年平均土壤侵蚀量,但是对土壤侵蚀动态变化的影响不明显;虽然采伐增加使平均土壤侵蚀量增加,但是也同时使土壤侵蚀的年际变化更趋于平稳．     

How spatial resource distribution and memory impact foraging success: A hybrid model and mechanistic index

Understanding how animals forage has always been a fundamental issue in Ethology and has become critical more recently in Environmental Conservation. Since the formalization of optimal foraging theory, theoretical models intended to depict the behavior of a generic forager have served as the main tools to analyze and ultimately comprehend the mechanisms of foraging. Due to complexity and technical constraints, these models have traditionally focused on single aspects of foraging, leaving out other concurrent processes that may also interplay. The recent inclusion of several facets inside united models has given rise to interesting results on the importance of interacting factors such as memory and resource heterogeneity.In this paper, we present a hybrid model integrating metabolism, foraging decisions, memory, as well as spatially explicit movement and resource distribution. We use it to examine the effects of spatial resource distribution – an aspect often neglected in favor of probabilistic resource heterogeneity – on the viability of a generic random-walking forager, and rely on the model to devise an ecological metric that can explain and render the relative profitability of given spatial distributions. Furthermore, we assess the significance of memory properties relatively to the profitability of resource distributions. Most notably, we reveal contrasted effects of memory depending on the aspect of resource varied in space (i.e. prey abundance, or prey body mass).On the whole, a general comparison of our findings with results obtained with spatially implicit models leads us to stress the complex interaction between memory and spatial resource distribution as well as the criticality of spatial representation in the modeling of foraging. Accordingly, we conclude with a discussion on the ecological implications of these results, as well as the advantages of hybrid modeling for the accurate simulation of foraging.     

The importance of dispersal in determining seed versus safe site limitation of plant populations

The traditional dichotomy of seed versus safe site limitation of plant populations is an oversimplification. While most plant models implicitly assume that the number of safe sites colonized will increase directly with increased seed production by each plant, the number of sites colonized may also strongly depend on patterns of seed dispersal relative to the parent plant, since the majority of a plant’s seeds are deposited very close to it and so not all safe sites are equally accessible. I created a series of spatially explicit individual based plant population models exploring how seed versus safe site limitation is jointly affected by the number of seeds produced per plant and mean dispersal distances. While increased dispersal distance led to reduced seed limitation (more saturation of available safe sites) when a parent plant’s site was temporarily unsuitable following its death, increased dispersal distances could increase seed limitation, especially at low per-plant fecundities, if safe sites did not turn over through time. Models comparing localized to global seed dispersal indicated substantially different degrees of seed limitation for constant per-plant fecundities. Thus seed addition experiments need to be designed to add seeds in realistic spatial patterns to yield meaningful results.