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Shariff Wan Mohamad D. Mark Rayan Wong Chai Thiam Christopher Muhamad Hamirul Azlan Mohamed Ching Fong Lau Elangkumaran Sagtia Siwan 《Population Ecology》2015,57(3):495-503
The mainland clouded leopard (Neofelis nebulosa) is classified as vulnerable under the IUCN Red List, meaning that it faces a high risk of extinction in the wild. However, hardly any ecological research has been published on this species apart from several radiotelemetry studies in Thailand and Nepal, and one camera-trapping study in India. Here we present findings on the clouded leopard from a camera-trapping study conducted in Temengor forest reserve (a logged-over forest) and Royal Belum State Park (a primary forest) within Peninsular Malaysia. Using the spatially-explicit capture-recapture method, the density from Temengor forest reserve and Royal Belum State Park was estimated at 3.46 ± SE 1.00 and 1.83 ± SE 0.61, respectively. Clouded leopard habitat use was found to be highly influenced by the availability of small and medium prey species and therefore intrinsically highlights the potential conservation importance of species such as pig-tailed macaques, porcupine, mouse deer and small carnivores. These findings provide the first estimates of density and habitat use of this species in a logged-primary forest from both Peninsular Malaysia and South East Asia. Our study provides important baseline information on clouded leopards and contributes to filling up the knowledge gap that exists in understanding the population ecology of this species, not only within Peninsular Malaysia, but also on a regional level. 相似文献
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黑龙江凤凰山国家级自然保护区野猪冬季容纳量及最适种群密度 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
近年黑龙江省凤凰山国家级自然保护区野猪数量不断增长,人猪冲突加剧,保护区资源保护管理工作面临较大管理压力.为确定野猪种群的实际数量,同时评估该保护区的野猪的容纳量水平,以便为保护区管理局针对野猪的管理提供相关指导意见.2009-2010年冬季,在保护区采用样带调查、雪地足迹链跟踪和观察食痕的方法,并结合已有野猪生态研究确定野猪食性.野猪主要食物种类包括:木贼(Equisetum hiemale)、红松(Pinus koraiensis)果实松籽、胡桃楸(Juglans mandshurica)果实核桃、蒙古栎(Quecusmongolica)果实橡子、稠李(Padus racemosa)、榛子(Corylus heterophlla)、苔草(Carex spp.)、辽东葱木(Aralia elata).研究期间共布设长3-5km、单侧宽度50m、总长134 km的样带30条.调查中,每隔200 m布设10 m×10 m的大样方,并在每个大样方中央及四角布设1 m×1 m的小样方,共布设大样方350个,小样方1 750个.通过样方调查,统计野猪栖息生境当年可食植物枝条及其食物种类,然后计算其食物的总供给量,再结合食物营养成分,通过粗蛋白、粗纤维、粗脂肪的能量转换,按照每克粗蛋白和粗纤维的能量转换系数为16.74kJ、每克粗脂肪的能量转换系数为37.66 kJ,确定野外生境食物总能量供给.结合野猪冬季日营养需求,以能量为基础估算保护区野猪的营养容纳量.在种群密度调查过程中,通过足迹链判断个体方法为:单一清晰足迹链确定为一个体所留,30m内多条足迹穿越同一样带被认为是一个野猪群所留,调查中根据个体分开时的足迹链数确定野猪个体数,同时将粪便、卧迹、啃食痕迹作为个体判断的辅助信息.研究结果表明:凤凰山保护区内能够提供的总能量为7.375 ×107MJ,冬季平均每头野猪生存所需能量为(14 677.698±409.92) MJ,野猪营养容纳量为(1 006±28)头,种群密度为(3.79±0.11)头/km2.此外,调查中发现30余个野猪套及2头野猪被猎杀现场,反应出当地的人猪冲突较为严重.结合调查中发现的野猪套数量及野猪被猎杀概率,对野猪种群数量引入20%的死亡风险系数.最终确定凤凰山野猪种群的最适数量在(603±17)头左右,最适密度为(2.27±0.06)头/km2.通过样带法调查得出凤凰山自然保护区实际野猪种群数量为(596±155)头,密度(2.24±0.58)头/km2,已趋近营养容纳量.因此,野猪并未过量,不能采取狩猎等降低种群数量的措施,同时保护区也应对野猪种群进行持续监控,防止野猪种群过度繁殖以至成灾. 相似文献
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《Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience》2018,12(2):265-274
In the context of determining the sustainable carrying capacity of dry-Mediterranean herbaceous rangelands, we examined the effect of animal density on cattle nutrition, which is fundamental to animal performance and welfare. The effects on dietary components of low (0.56 cows/ha; L) and high (1.11 cows/ha; H) animal densities were monitored for three consecutive years in grazing beef cows. In the dry season (summer and early autumn), cows had free access to N-rich poultry litter (PL) given as a dietary supplement. In each season, near-IR spectroscopy (NIRS) was used to predict the chemical composition of herbage samples (ash, NDF, CP, in vitro dry matter digestibility (IVDMD) and metabolizable energy (ME) content from IVDMD). Near-IR spectroscopy was applied also to faecal samples to determine the chemical composition of the diet selected by the animal, as well as the contents of ash, NDF and CP in the faeces themselves. A faecal-NIRS equation was applied to estimate the dietary proportion of PL. Seasonal categories were green, dry without PL supplementation and dry with it. We found no effects of animal density on nutrition during the green season but effects were apparent when cows consumed dry pasture. Ash content predicted by faecal NIRS was higher in the diet than in plant samples clipped from pasture, which infers that cows ingested soil. Dietary and faecal ash contents were higher (P<0.05) at the H, implying greater soil intake in these animals. During the dry period, dietary contents of ME were higher in L than in H (P<0.05). Poultry litter supplementation was associated with a marked increase (P<0.01) in dietary and faecal CP contents. Poultry litter represented 0.45 and 0.59 of the diet in treatments L and H, respectively (P<0.05). Consequently, treatment H had higher faecal protein (P<0.05). A tendency of higher dietary protein (P=0.08) and lower dietary NDF (P=0.10) in treatment H was probably related to greater PL ingestion. Given that high and sustained rates of poultry litter consumption are detrimental to animal health, the above results cast doubts on the long-term sustainability of the higher of the animal densities tested. Although it may be sustainable vis-à-vis the vegetation, treatment H may have exceeded the boundaries of what is acceptable for cow health. Chemical information revealed with NIRS can be used to evaluate whether animal densities are compatible with animal health and welfare standards and can play a role in determining the carrying capacity of Mediterranean rangelands. 相似文献
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承载力评估在区域人口配置中的应用:以常州为例 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
从城市生态系统承载力的空间差异性出发,集成GIS空间评价技术和系统动力学(SD)模型,确定城市区域适度总人口规模和各分区人口数量,提出人口分区定量配置新思路和技术集成方法,并将该方法应用于300万人口城市——常州.结果表明:通过构建常州市区人口、经济、土地与环境的系统动力学模型和多情景模拟分析,在同时满足城市经济发展与环境保护需求下,常州市区远景(2050年)总人口约400万;基于城市承载力空间差异评价进行常州市区总人口的空间配置,将形成240万人的主城及5个15 ~ 40万人新城的空间格局,研究结果可为国土开发管理中人口与经济的空间分配提供科学依据. 相似文献
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Impaired neutrophil extracellular trap formation: a novel defect in the innate immune system of aged individuals 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Jon Hazeldine Phillipa Harris Iain L. Chapple Melissa Grant Hannah Greenwood Amy Livesey Elizabeth Sapey Janet M. Lord 《Aging cell》2014,13(4):690-698
Neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) are a recently discovered addition to the defensive armamentarium of neutrophils, assisting in the immune response against rapidly dividing bacteria. Although older adults are more susceptible to such infections, no study has examined whether aging in humans influences NET formation. We report that TNF‐α‐primed neutrophils generate significantly more NETs than unprimed neutrophils and that lipopolysaccharide (LPS)‐ and interleukin‐8 (IL‐8)‐induced NET formation exhibits a significant age‐related decline. NET formation requires generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), and this was also reduced in neutrophils from older donors identifying a mechanism for reduced NET formation. Expression of IL‐8 receptors (CXCR1 and CXCR2) and the LPS receptor TLR4 was similar on neutrophils from young and old subjects, and neutrophils challenged with phorbol‐12‐myristate‐13‐acetate (PMA) showed no age‐associated differences in ROS or NET production. Taken together, these data suggest a defect in proximal signalling underlies the age‐related decline in NET and ROS generation. TNF‐α priming involves signalling through p38 MAP kinase, but activation kinetics were comparable in neutrophils from young and old donors. In a clinical setting, we assessed the capacity of neutrophils from young and older patients with chronic periodontitis to generate NETs in response to PMA and hypochlorous acid (HOCL). Neutrophil extracellular trap generation to HOCL, but not PMA, was lower in older periodontitis patients but not in comparison with age‐matched controls. Impaired NET formation is thus a novel defect of innate immunity in older adults but does not appear to contribute to the increased incidence of periodontitis in older adults. 相似文献
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可靠的种群密度数据对野生动物的保护和管理十分重要。豹猫(Prionailurus bengalensis)是中国分布最广且常见的猫科动物, 但野生种群密度估算的研究并不多。本研究于2020年6月至2021年5月在香港新界嘉道理农场暨植物园开展红外相机调查, 利用空间标记-重捕法估算当地豹猫的种群密度并用核密度估计方法分析其活动节律。本次调查以网格方式布置红外相机, 在约1.5 km2的研究范围之内设置了19个相机位点, 每个位点安装2台相机以获取豹猫身体两侧花纹来进行个体识别。连续12个月调查共捕获113次有效的豹猫拍摄事件, 当中仅61次事件的照片足够清晰以进行个体识别。基于种群封闭的要求, 我们以2个月为单位将12个月的数据分为6个采样期去分析豹猫种群密度, 结果显示仅两个采样期的估算值最为准确, 分别为0.64 ± 0.31 (0.26-1.55)只/km2和0.87 ± 0.48 (0.31-2.40)只/km2, 是已知全球豹猫密度最高的地点之一。结果还发现, 雨季研究地点的豹猫并无明显的日活动节律, 在旱季则偏夜行-晨昏行性多一些, 但也有一定的日间活动; 雨季和旱季的日活动节律无显著差异。本研究是首次以个体识别配以空间标记-重捕模型对中国大陆地区豹猫种群密度调查的研究; 我们也提出一些关于红外相机架设方法的建议, 以提高照片个体识别的准确度并增加重捕次数, 最后提高密度估算的准确度。本研究也进一步证明豹猫适应性极强, 在活动节律上表现出极高的可塑性, 在严格保护下可以恢复健康的种群。 相似文献
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Jessica R. Hale Kristin L. Laidre Steven J. Jeffries Jonathan J. Scordino Deanna Lynch Ronald J. Jameson M. Tim Tinker 《The Journal of wildlife management》2022,86(4):e22215
Sea otters (Enhydra lutris kenyoni) historically occurred in Washington State, USA, until their local extinction in the early 1900s as a result of the maritime fur trade. Following their extirpation, 59 sea otters were translocated from Amchitka Island, Alaska, USA, to the coast of Washington, with 29 released at Point Grenville in 1969 and 30 released at La Push in 1970. The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife has outlined 2 main objectives for sea otter recovery: a target population level and a target geographic distribution. Recovery criteria are based on estimates of population abundance, equilibrium abundance (K), and geographic distribution; therefore, estimates of these parameters have important management implications. We compiled available survey data for sea otters in Washington State since their translocation (1977–2019) and fit a Bayesian state-space model to estimate past and current abundance, and equilibrium abundance at multiple spatial scales. We then used forward projections of population dynamics to explore potential scenarios of range recolonization and as the basis of a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the relative influence of movement behavior, frontal wave speed, intrinsic growth, and equilibrium density on future population recovery potential. Our model improves upon previous analyses of sea otter population dynamics in Washington by partitioning and quantifying sources of estimation error to estimate population dynamics, by providing robust estimates of K, and by simulating long-term population growth and range expansion under a range of realistic parameter values. Our model resulted in predictions of population abundance that closely matched observed counts. At the range-wide scale, the population size in our model increased from an average of 21 independent sea otters (95% CI = 13–29) in 1977 to 2,336 independent sea otters (95% CI = 1,467–3,359) in 2019. The average estimated annual growth rate was 12.42% and varied at a sub-regional scale from 6.42–14.92%. The overall estimated mean K density of sea otters in Washington was 1.71 ± 0.90 (SD) independent sea otters/km2 of habitat (1.96 ± 1.04 sea otters/km2, including pups), and estimated densities within the current range correspond on average to 87% of mean sub-regional equilibrium values (range = 66–111%). The projected value of K for all of Washington was 5,287 independent sea otters (95% CI = 2,488–8,086) and 6,080 sea otters including pups (95% CI = 2,861–9,300), assuming a similar range of equilibrium densities in currently un-occupied habitats. Sensitivity analysis of simulations of sea otter population growth and range expansion suggested that mean K density estimates in currently occupied sub-regions had the largest impact on predicted future population growth (r2 = 0.52), followed by the rate of southward range expansion (r2 = 0.26) and the mean K density estimate of currently unoccupied sub-regions to the south of the current range (r2 = 0.04). Our estimates of abundance and sensitivity analysis of simulations of future population abundance and geographic range help determine population status in relation to population recovery targets and identify the most influential parameters affecting future population growth and range expansion for sea otters in Washington State. 相似文献
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Abstract. 1. The tiger swallowtail butterfly, Papilio glaucus (L.) (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae), is commonly assumed to have a bivoltine life cycle in central New York State and other parts of the northeastern United States. The seasonal abundance of adults in Tompkins County, New York, shows a bimodal pattern in some years, and a skewed unimodal pattern in others. We studied the incidence of diapause, the potential for successful development of two generations in the field, and the dates of adult emergence from overwintering pupae to determine whether these seasonal patterns are the result of bivoltinism.
2. Insects from Tompkins County, reared as larvae under 16L:8D photoperiod, uniformly enter pupal diapause.
3. Comparison of the heat units required for successful development of two generations with the heat units available in the field during 11 years shows that emergence of non-diapausing individuals would occur too late in the summer to contribute to the second peak of butterfly abundance. Offspring of non-diapausing individuals could only rarely complete development before the end of the growth season.
4. Diapausing offspring of butterflies collected in early June and late July differed sufficiently in dates of emergence to account for the field pattern of seasonal abundance.
5. Electrophoretic studies revealed no evidence of genetic isolation between early and late emerging butterflies.
6. These results suggest that polymodal emergence of diapausing insects can masquerade as a bivoltine life cycle. 相似文献
2. Insects from Tompkins County, reared as larvae under 16L:8D photoperiod, uniformly enter pupal diapause.
3. Comparison of the heat units required for successful development of two generations with the heat units available in the field during 11 years shows that emergence of non-diapausing individuals would occur too late in the summer to contribute to the second peak of butterfly abundance. Offspring of non-diapausing individuals could only rarely complete development before the end of the growth season.
4. Diapausing offspring of butterflies collected in early June and late July differed sufficiently in dates of emergence to account for the field pattern of seasonal abundance.
5. Electrophoretic studies revealed no evidence of genetic isolation between early and late emerging butterflies.
6. These results suggest that polymodal emergence of diapausing insects can masquerade as a bivoltine life cycle. 相似文献
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多元驱动下水生态承载力评价方法与应用——以京津冀地区为例 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
水生态承载力通常是指在维持水生态系统自身及其支持系统健康的前提下,基于一定的生态保护和承载目标,自然水生态系统所能支撑的人类活动的阈值。从水生态承载力的概念出发,基于水资源、水环境和社会经济等要素,筛选出水资源利用率、污水处理率、万元GDP用水量等16个指标对水生态承载力评价的多元耦合作用进行分析,量化驱动因子与水生态承载力之间的关联度,建立了具有多元驱动功能的粒子群引力搜索算法-投影追踪(PSOGSA-PP)水生态承载力评价模型。并以京津冀地区为例,解析了区域水资源和水环境的生态效益,以及经济社会效益最大化的内在驱动,评价了水生态承载力并阐明其影响因素。进一步设定不同时间段的水生态承载力情景方案,通过具有较高寻优精度和较好算法执行能力的粒子群引力搜索算法,利用最佳投影方向a→分别计算分级标准阈值的投影值z'(i)和评价实例的投影值z″(i),基于投影值z'(i)构造水生态承载力评价等级,实现了水生态承载力的分级评价,结果表明,在多元因子共同驱动下,2008年—2030年京津冀所属13个地区的水生态承载力在波动中呈好转趋势,逐步由Ⅳ级(超载)、Ⅴ级(严重超载)向趋于Ⅱ级(比较理想)状态的演变,张家口市始终保持着Ⅱ级水平,并在2030年达到Ⅰ级(理想)的临界值。研究成果将为京津冀一体化的水资源开发利用与水源生态涵养提供重要的决策支持。 相似文献
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A. Suzuki 《Trees - Structure and Function》2000,14(6):329-333
The patterns of vegetative growth and reproduction in relation to orders of terminal branches were examined in the evergreen
woody plant, Eurya japonica. The branch order number was determined centrifugally. The trunk was given order number 1; branches issuing directly from
the trunk were order 2; branches growing on order 2 branches were order 3, and so on. The results of this study show the differential
patterns of vegetative growth and reproduction in relation to the branch orders. Lower-order shoots of terminal branches grew
more, but produced few flowers. On the other hand, for the higher-order terminal branches, shoot growth was very limited but
flowering was more intense. The results show that a tree can be interpreted not as a mere population of equivalent modules
but as a spatially structured population. Thus, it is essential to consider the position of modules within the branch system
when patterns of vegetative growth and reproduction are examined. It is hypothesized that the difference in the opportunity
cost in relation to the branch orders is the main cause of the spatial structure for patterns of vegetative growth and reproduction.
Furthermore, for same-order terminal branches, current-year shoot elongation was independent of flowering intensity. These
results suggest that this species only invests resources in reproduction that are surplus to its requirements for the functions
associated with survival, such as growth and/or storage.
Received: 22 July 1999 / Accepted: 12 January 2000 相似文献
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Rick A. Brenneman Richard K. Bagine David M. Brown Robert Ndetei Edward E. Louis Jr 《African Journal of Ecology》2009,47(4):711-719
Giraffe were historically free‐ranging across most of sub‐Saharan Africa but are now most often confined to national parks, conservation areas, or private ranches. Five viable populations of Rothschild’s giraffe (Giraffa camelopardalis rothschildi) remain in protected areas in Kenya and Uganda. The viable population in Uganda is Murchison Falls National Park and the four populations in Kenya are Lake Nakuru National Park (LNNP), Ruma National Park, Giraffe Manor, and Mwea Natural Reserve. The Kenya Wildlife Service queried a rapid decline in LNNP giraffe numbers falling from 153 individuals (1995) to 62 individuals (2002) and the failure of that population to recruit young in those years. Significantly reduced browse options, inbreeding depression and preferential lion predation were considered as potential reasons for this trend. Population genetic parameter estimates derived from multilocus genotype analyses suggest that the LNNP population was in good genetic health with respect to the likelihood of inbreeding depression. The population decline coincided with the drought attributed to the 1994 El Niño. Possible dietary complications from highly concentrated tannin levels because of forced over consumption of the park’s declining acacia trees may have compromised young giraffe, making them easy and opportunistic prey for the park’s lion population. 相似文献
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Chin K Bloch J Sweet A Tweet J Eberle J Cumbaa S Witkowski J Harwood D 《Proceedings. Biological sciences / The Royal Society》2008,275(1652):2675-2685
As the earth faces a warming climate, the rock record reminds us that comparable climatic scenarios have occurred before. In the Late Cretaceous, Arctic marine organisms were not subject to frigid temperatures but still contended with seasonal extremes in photoperiod. Here, we describe an unusual fossil assemblage from Devon Island, Arctic Canada, that offers a snapshot of a ca 75 Myr ago marine palaeoecosystem adapted to such conditions. Thick siliceous biogenic sediments and glaucony sands reveal remarkably persistent high primary productivity along a high-latitude Late Cretaceous coastline. Abundant fossil faeces demonstrate that this planktonic bounty supported benthic invertebrates and large, possibly seasonal, vertebrates in short food chains. These ancient organisms filled trophic roles comparable to those of extant Arctic species, but there were fundamental differences in resource dynamics. Whereas most of the modern Arctic is oligotrophic and structured by resources from melting sea ice, we suggest that forested terrestrial landscapes helped support the ancient marine community through high levels of terrigenous organic input. 相似文献
17.
高寒牧区村域生态足迹——以甘南州合作市为例 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
高寒牧区是一类特殊的地域,其生态环境本底和压力明显区别于其它地域类型。从自然本底上讲,"高寒"特征造成生态系统结构单一、节律缓慢、功能稳定性差,因此,脆弱性强,而修复难度大;从压力上讲,"高寒"又一定程度上屏蔽了外界要素的过分介入,导致人口分布的高度离散性和稀疏性,人地矛盾转化为更直观的草畜矛盾。论文结合高寒牧区的特质,对生态足迹模型和生态承载力模型进行了修正,强调了高寒牧区生态承载力的主控因素———牲畜特征、人口特征、生境特征和地域特征,以甘南州合作市为案例,具体测算和分析了41个行政单元的生态足迹和生态承载力。结果表明:(1)人口生态足迹和牲畜生态足迹分布格局大致呈反向态势,说明在高寒牧区,人口与牲畜对环境造成的压力存在着显著的空间差异。(2)从人口生态足迹和牲畜生态足迹对总生态足迹的贡献度上看,总生态足迹的高低主要取决于牲畜生态足迹,说明牲畜是主控因素。(3)从地均生态承载力分布态势看,低承载区主要分布于北部海拔较高的广大牧区,这里生态结构非常单一,主要以高寒草甸草原和沼泽草原生态类型为主,寒冻风化作用异常强烈,生物有效生长期非常短。而高承载区分布在市区周围和南部洮河谷地沿岸,生态系统除草地生态系统外,还有森林生态系统。从而说明人为条件的改善、自然生态系统结构的复杂程度和自然环境的严酷程度是决定高寒牧区承载力高低的主要因素。(4)从生态盈余与赤字的空间分布态势看,赤字区域主要集中分布在广大的纯牧区,超载过牧是生态状况的关键性致因。因此提高生态承载力、减少生态赤字的关键集结于草畜关系上。有鉴于此,需要采取以下措施:一是根据天然草场的承载能力,建立适宜的草畜平衡关系,将超载的牲畜转移出去;二是科学合理的提高草场的生产能力和承载能力,这就需要加强草原生态保护建设;三是调整经济结构,减少社会经济发展对天然放牧业的高度依赖性,推进传统草地畜牧业向现代畜牧业转型。 相似文献
18.
To evaluate the effects of a large scale coastal engineering project on the mussel (Mytilus edulis) bottom culture in the Oosterschelde estuary (S.W. Netherlands), mussel growth and production in the period 1980–1990 are studied in relation to food supply and the hydrodynamic conditions. Due to the construction of a storm-surge barrier and two additional dams, the risk that mussels are swept away by high current velocities decreased, resulting in an increase of the area in the Oosterschelde potentially suitable for mussel culture and in food availability now being more important as a limiting factor. For the Oosterschelde, a clear relation between mussel growth, stock sizes, and phytoplankton dynamics has been demonstrated. The meat yield of mussels landed in autumn — which is an index for growth rate — seems to be determined by the phytoplankton production in the preceding summer. In years with dense bivalve stocks, phytoplankton production and meat yields are relatively low. It is concluded that an increase of the mussel biomass cultured can result in a reduction of the primary production and, consequently, in a deterioration of the growing conditions for suspension-feeders in the estuary. This conclusion is supported by model calculations. An expansion of mussel culture in the new Oosterschelde is therefore dissuaded. Apart from primary production and stock sizes, food supply for mussels on culture lots appeared to be controlled by the horizontal advection of phytoplankton between and within the tidal channels. An observed decline in mussel landings from certain areas is attributed to the reduced mixing energy of the estuary in relation to the present distribution of the lots over the estuary. Production figures from the experimental lots, established in 1988 in the newly available areas, demonstrate that the yield of mussels can be enhanced by relaying culture lots towards the areas where the phytoplankton is produced. It is expected that by redistributing the culture lots, without expanding the biomass cultured, the carrying capacity of the Oosterschelde for mussel culture can be maintained. 相似文献
19.
An exact conditional test for an M-way log-linear interaction in a fully observed 2M contingency table is formulated. From this is derived a procedure for interval estimation of the total count N in a 2M contingency table, one of whose entries is unobserved. This procedure has an immediate application to interval estimation of the size of a closed population from incomplete, overlapping lists of records, as in capture-recapture analysis of epidemiological data. Data on the prevalence of spina bifida in live births in upstate New York in 1969-1974 illustrate this application. 相似文献
20.
Tarskaia L El'chinova GI Scapoli C Mamolini E Carrieri A Rodriguez-Larralde A Barrai I 《American journal of physical anthropology》2009,138(2):190-198
We studied the isonymic structure of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), in the Russian Federation, using the surname distributions of 491,259 citizens above 18 years registered as residents in 2002. These were distributed in 35 districts and 497 towns and settlements of the Republic. The number of different surnames was 44,625. Matrices of isonymic distances between the 35 districts were tested for correlation with the geographic distance between the population centers of gravity of the districts. We found that, for the whole of Yakutia, Nei's distance was correlated with geographic distance (r = 0.693 +/- 0.027). A dendrogram of the 35 districts was built from the distance matrix, using the UPGMA method. The clusters identified by the dendrogram correlate with the geographic position of the districts. The correlation of random inbreeding calculated from isonymy, F(ST), with latitude was positive and highly significant but weak (r = 0.23). So, inbreeding was highest in the Arctic districts, and lowest in the South. Average alpha for 497 towns was 107, for 35 districts it was 311, and for the Republic 433. The value of alpha was higher for Russian than for the local languages. The geographical distribution of alpha, high in the Center and South-East and lower in the North-West, is compatible with the settlement of groups of migrants moving from the South-East toward the center and the North of Yakutia. It is proposed that low-density demic diffusion of human populations results in high inbreeding and may have been a general phenomenon in the early phases of human radiations. 相似文献