Impacts of climate warming and habitat loss on extinctions at species' low-latitude range boundaries

Polewards expansions of species' distributions have been attributed to climate warming, but evidence for climate‐driven local extinctions at warm (low latitude/elevation) boundaries is equivocal. We surveyed the four species of butterflies that reach their southern limits in Britain. We visited 421 sites where the species had been recorded previously to determine whether recent extinctions were primarily due to climate or habitat changes. Coenonympha tullia had become extinct at 52% of study sites and all losses were associated with habitat degradation. Aricia artaxerxes was extinct from 50% of sites, with approximately one‐third to half of extinctions associated with climate‐related factors and the remainder with habitat loss. For Erebia aethiops (extinct from 24% of sites), approximately a quarter of the extinctions were associated with habitat and three‐quarters with climate. For Erebia epiphron, extinctions (37% of sites) were attributed mainly to climate with almost no habitat effects. For the three species affected by climate, range boundaries retracted 70–100 km northwards (A. artaxerxes, E. aethiops) and 130–150 m uphill (E. epiphron) in the sample of sites analysed. These shifts are consistent with estimated latitudinal and elevational temperature shifts of 88 km northwards and 98 m uphill over the 19‐year study period. These results suggest that the southern/warm range margins of some species are as sensitive to climate change as are northern/cool margins. Our data indicate that climate warming has been of comparable importance to habitat loss in driving local extinctions of northern species over the past few decades; future climate warming is likely to jeopardize the long‐term survival of many northern and mountain species.     

The role of climate in constraining the elevational range of the Water Pipit Anthus spinoletta in an alpine environment

The study of determinants of species’ ranges along elevational gradients may shed light on the ecological factors that constrain their distribution and fundamental niche. We analysed the influence of the climate, habitat at different spatial scales and topography on Water Pipit Anthus spinoletta density in mountain landscapes across a wide elevational gradient. Variables associated with spring and annual temperature values were the main determinants of Water Pipit density, especially at the lower distributional limit (700–1200 m asl), where the species avoided warmer areas. At high‐elevation sites (1600–2300 m asl), the main constraint to the species’ distribution was habitat structure and composition, with steep rocky areas being avoided. Highest densities were found in open but locally heterogeneous habitat at intermediate to high elevations, and the habitat variables that played a major role at the landscape scale were medium‐tall shrublands and woodlands, but with contrasting effects depending on elevation. These results suggest that different sets of variables may constrain density, and effects may differ at the upper and lower elevational limits, with climate being more important at lower elevations and local habitat more important at higher elevations. Ongoing global warming is likely to cause an upward shift in range boundaries of alpine species, but local habitat features could constrain the upward expansion, resulting in range contractions accompanying range shift.     

Elevational diversity gradients, biogeography and the structure of montane mammal communities in the intermountain region of North America

1  Distribution data were assembled for non-volant small mammals along elevational gradients on mountain ranges in the western U.S.A. Elevational distributions in the species-rich Uinta Mountains were compared to those on smaller mountain ranges with varying degrees of historical isolation from the Uintas.
2  For mountain ranges supporting the richest faunas, species richness is highest over a broad low- to mid-elevation zone and declines at both lower and higher elevations. Patterns on other mountain ranges are similar but reflect lower overall species richness.
3  A basic relationship between elevational and geographical distribution is apparent in the occurrence patterns of mammals on regional mountains. Faunas on mountains that have had low levels of historical isolation appear to be influenced by immigration rather than extinction. Species restricted to high elevations in the Uintas are poorly represented on historically isolated mountains and form a portion of local faunas shaped by extinction. Species occurring at lower elevations in the Uintas have better representation on isolated mountains and apparently maintain populations through immigration.
4  Several widespread species show substantial variation in maximum elevation records on different mountain ranges. This involves (1) an upward shift in habitat zones on small, isolated mountain ranges, allowing greater access by low-elevation species, and (2) expansion of certain low- and mid-elevation species into habitats normally occupied by absent high-elevation taxa.
5  Results indicate that montane mammal faunas of the intermountain region have been shaped by broad-scale historical processes, unique regional geography and local ecological dynamics. Parallel examples among mammals of the Philippine Islands suggest that such patterns may characterize many insular faunas.     

The future of cold‐adapted plants in changing climates: Micranthes (Saxifragaceae) as a case study

Research has shown species undergoing range contractions and/or northward and higher elevational movements as a result of changing climates. Here, we evaluate how the distribution of a group of cold‐adapted plant species with similar evolutionary histories changes in response to warming climates. We selected 29 species of Micranthes (Saxifragaceae) representing the mountain and Arctic biomes of the Northern Hemisphere. For this analysis, 24,755 data points were input into ecological niche models to assess both present fundamental niches and predicted future ranges under climate change scenarios. Comparisons were made across the Northern Hemisphere between all cold‐adapted Micranthes, including Arctic species, montane species, and species defined as narrow endemics. Under future climate change models, 72% of the species would occupy smaller geographical areas than at present. This loss of habitat is most pronounced in Arctic species in general, but is also prevalent in species restricted to higher elevations in mountains. Additionally, narrowly endemic species restricted to high elevations were more susceptible to habitat loss than those species found at lower elevations. Using a large dataset and modeling habitat suitability at a global scale, our results empirically model the threats to cold‐adapted species as a result of warming climates. Although Arctic and alpine biomes share many underlying climate similarities, such as cold and short growing seasons, our results confirm that species in these climates have varied responses to climate change and that key abiotic variables differ between these two habitats.     

Beyond Rapoport's rule: evaluating range size patterns of New World birds in a two-dimensional framework

Aim To evaluate Rapoport's rule for New World birds in two‐dimensional geographical space. We specifically test for a topography × climate interaction that predicts little difference in range sizes between lowlands and mountains in cold climates, whereas in the tropics, montane species have narrow ranges and lowland species have broad ranges. Location The western hemisphere. Methods We used digitized range maps of breeding birds to generate mean range sizes in grids of 27.5 × 27.5 km and 110 × 110 km across North and South America. We examined the geographical pattern with respect to range in elevation, mean temperature in the coldest month, their interaction, biome size and continental width, using model II analysis of variance, multiple regression and simple correlation. Results In northern latitudes species have broad ranges in both mountainous and flat areas. However, range sizes in the mountains and lowlands diverge southwards, with the most extreme differences in the tropics. Further, there are minimal differences in range sizes across latitudes in lowlands. The smallest mean ranges occur in the tropical Andes. Mean range sizes in north‐central Canada, Central America and Argentina/Chile are also small, reflecting the narrowing of the continents in these areas. The best regression model explained 51% of the variation in mean range size. Main conclusions The two‐dimensional range size pattern indicates that neither winter temperature nor annual variability in temperature strongly influences the distribution of range sizes directly; rather, climate influences bird range sizes indirectly via effects on habitat size. Also, macroclimate interacts with topographic relief across latitudes, generating sharp mesoscale habitat gradients in tropical mountains but not in high latitude mountains or in lowlands at any latitude. Birds respond to these habitat gradients, resulting in ‘latitudinal’ range size gradients in topographically complex landscapes but not in simple landscapes.     

Disproportional risk for habitat loss of high‐altitude endemic species under climate change

The expected upward shift of trees due to climate warming is supposed to be a major threat to range‐restricted high‐altitude species by shrinking the area of their suitable habitats. Our projections show that areas of endemism of five taxonomic groups (vascular plants, snails, spiders, butterflies, and beetles) in the Austrian Alps will, on average, experience a 77% habitat loss even under the weakest climate change scenario (+1.8 °C by 2100). The amount of habitat loss is positively related with the pooled endemic species richness (species from all five taxonomic groups) and with the richness of endemic vascular plants, snails, and beetles. Owing to limited postglacial migration, hotspots of high‐altitude endemics are situated in rather low peripheral mountain chains of the Alps, which have not been glaciated during the Pleistocene. There, tree line expansion disproportionally reduces habitats of high‐altitude species. Such legacies of climate history, which may aggravate extinction risks under future climate change have to be expected for many temperate mountain ranges.     

21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe

Continental‐scale assessments of 21st century global impacts of climate change on biodiversity have forecasted range contractions for many species. These coarse resolution studies are, however, of limited relevance for projecting risks to biodiversity in mountain systems, where pronounced microclimatic variation could allow species to persist locally, and are ill‐suited for assessment of species‐specific threat in particular regions. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on 2632 plant species across all major European mountain ranges, using high‐resolution (ca. 100 m) species samples and data expressing four future climate scenarios. Projected habitat loss is greater for species distributed at higher elevations; depending on the climate scenario, we find 36–55% of alpine species, 31–51% of subalpine species and 19–46% of montane species lose more than 80% of their suitable habitat by 2070–2100. While our high‐resolution analyses consistently indicate marked levels of threat to cold‐adapted mountain florae across Europe, they also reveal unequal distribution of this threat across the various mountain ranges. Impacts on florae from regions projected to undergo increased warming accompanied by decreased precipitation, such as the Pyrenees and the Eastern Austrian Alps, will likely be greater than on florae in regions where the increase in temperature is less pronounced and rainfall increases concomitantly, such as in the Norwegian Scandes and the Scottish Highlands. This suggests that change in precipitation, not only warming, plays an important role in determining the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation.     

Elevation‐richness pattern of vascular plants in wadis of the arid mountain Gebel Elba,Egypt

Mountains provide a unique opportunity to study drivers of species richness across relatively short elevation gradients. However, few studies have reported elevational patterns for arid mountains. We studied elevation‐richness pattern along an elevational gradient at the arid mountain Gebel Elba, south‐east of Egypt, expecting a unimodal richness pattern. We sampled 133 vegetation plots (10 × 10 m) in four wadis along an elevational gradient from 130 to 680 m which represents the transition from desert to mountain wadi systems. We used generalised additive models to describe the relationship between elevation and plant species richness. We found a strong increase in species richness and Shannon diversity at low elevations followed by a plateau at mid‐ to high elevations. When we analysed each tributary as a single gradient, no pattern was found. The analysed elevational gradient seems to be a major stress gradient in terms of temperature and water availability, exhibiting a trend of increasing species richness that changes to a plateau pattern; a pattern rarely observed for wadi systems in arid mountains. We discuss the observed pattern with the climatic stress hypothesis and the environmental heterogeneity hypothesis as possible explanations for the pattern.     

Leap frog in slow motion: Divergent responses of tree species and life stages to climatic warming in Great Basin subalpine forests

In response to climate warming, subalpine treelines are expected to move up in elevation since treelines are generally controlled by growing season temperature. Where treeline is advancing, dispersal differences and early life stage environmental tolerances are likely to affect how species expand their ranges. Species with an establishment advantage will colonize newly available habitat first, potentially excluding species that have slower establishment rates. Using a network of plots across five mountain ranges, we described patterns of upslope elevational range shift for the two dominant Great Basin subalpine species, limber pine and Great Basin bristlecone pine. We found that the Great Basin treeline for these species is expanding upslope with a mean vertical elevation shift of 19.1 m since 1950, which is lower than what we might expect based on temperature increases alone. The largest advances were on limber pine‐dominated granitic soils, on west aspects, and at lower latitudes. Bristlecone pine juveniles establishing above treeline share some environmental associations with bristlecone adults. Limber pine above‐treeline juveniles, in contrast, are prevalent across environmental conditions and share few environmental associations with limber pine adults. Strikingly, limber pine is establishing above treeline throughout the region without regard to site characteristic such as soil type, slope, aspect, or soil texture. Although limber pine is often rare at treeline where it coexists with bristlecone pine, limber pine juveniles dominate above treeline even on calcareous soils that are core bristlecone pine habitat. Limber pine is successfully “leap‐frogging” over bristlecone pine, probably because of its strong dispersal advantage and broader tolerances for establishment. This early‐stage dominance indicates the potential for the species composition of treeline to change in response to climate change. More broadly, it shows how species differences in dispersal and establishment may result in future communities with very different specific composition.     

Elevational ranges of birds on a tropical montane gradient lag behind warming temperatures

Background

Species may respond to a warming climate by moving to higher latitudes or elevations. Shifts in geographic ranges are common responses in temperate regions. For the tropics, latitudinal temperature gradients are shallow; the only escape for species may be to move to higher elevations. There are few data to suggest that they do. Yet, the greatest loss of species from climate disruption may be for tropical montane species.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We repeat a historical transect in Peru and find an average upward shift of 49 m for 55 bird species over a 41 year interval. This shift is significantly upward, but also significantly smaller than the 152 m one expects from warming in the region. To estimate the expected shift in elevation we first determined the magnitude of warming in the locality from historical data. Then we used the temperature lapse rate to infer the required shift in altitude to compensate for warming. The range shifts in elevation were similar across different trophic guilds.

Conclusions

Endothermy may provide birds with some flexibility to temperature changes and allow them to move less than expected. Instead of being directly dependent on temperature, birds may be responding to gradual changes in the nature of the habitat or availability of food resources, and presence of competitors. If so, this has important implications for estimates of mountaintop extinctions from climate change.     

Butterfly phenology in Mediterranean mountains using space‐for‐time substitution

Inferring species' responses to climate change in the absence of long‐term time series data is a challenge, but can be achieved by substituting space for time. For example, thermal elevational gradients represent suitable proxies to study phenological responses to warming. We used butterfly data from two Mediterranean mountain areas to test whether mean dates of appearance of communities and individual species show a delay with increasing altitude, and an accompanying shortening in the duration of flight periods. We found a 14‐day delay in the mean date of appearance per kilometer increase in altitude for butterfly communities overall, and an average 23‐day shift for 26 selected species, alongside average summer temperature lapse rates of 3°C per km. At higher elevations, there was a shortening of the flight period for the community of 3 days/km, with an 8.8‐day average decline per km for individual species. Rates of phenological delay differed significantly between the two mountain ranges, although this did not seem to result from the respective temperature lapse rates. These results suggest that climate warming could lead to advanced and lengthened flight periods for Mediterranean mountain butterfly communities. However, although multivoltine species showed the expected response of delayed and shortened flight periods at higher elevations, univoltine species showed more pronounced delays in terms of species appearance. Hence, while projections of overall community responses to climate change may benefit from space‐for‐time substitutions, understanding species‐specific responses to local features of habitat and climate may be needed to accurately predict the effects of climate change on phenology.     

Bird diversity along elevational gradients in the Andes of Colombia: area and mass effects

Aim The decrease in species richness with increasing elevation is a widely recognized pattern. However, recent work has shown that there is variation in the shape of the curve, such that both negative monotonic or unimodal patterns occur, influenced by a variety of factors at local and regional scales. Discerning the shape of the curve may provide clues to the underlying causes of the observed pattern. At regional scales, the area of the altitudinal belts and mass effects are important determinants of species richness. This paper explores the relationship between bird species richness, elevation, mass effects and area of altitudinal zones for birds in tropical mountains. Location The three Andean ranges of Colombia and the peripheral mountain ranges of La Macarena and Santa Marta. Methods Lists of bird species were compiled for altitudinal belts in eastern and western slopes of the three Andean Cordilleras and for La Macarena and Santa Marta. The area of the altitudinal belts was computed from digital elevation models. The effect of area was analysed by testing for differences among altitudinal belts in the slopes and intercepts of the species‐area relationships. Mass effects were explored by separately analysing two sets of species: broadly distributed species, i.e. lowland species whose distributions extend into the Andes, and tropical Andean species, i.e., species that evolved in the Andes. Results Plotting total number of species in each altitudinal belt revealed a decline in species richness with elevation. In slopes with a complete elevational gradient from lowlands to mountain peaks, the decrease was monotonic. In internal Andean slopes where the lower elevational belts are truncated, there was a peak at mid elevations. There was a linear relationship between number of species and area of the altitudinal belts. When controlling for area, there were no differences in the number of species among altitudinal belts (500–2600 m), except for the two upper‐elevation zones (2600–3200 and > 3200 m), which had lower species richness. Diversity of widely distributed species declined monotonically with elevation, whereas tropical Andean species exhibited a mid‐elevation peak. Main conclusions A large proportion of the variation in species richness with elevation was explained by area of the altitudinal belts. When controlling for area, species richness remained constant up to 2600 m and then decreased. This pattern contrasts with a previously reported hump‐shaped pattern for Andean birds. Diversity patterns of widely distributed species suggested that immigration of lowland species inflates diversity of lower elevational belts through mass effects. This influence was particularly evident in slopes with complete altitudinal gradients (i.e. connected to the lowlands). Tropical Andean species, in contrast, were more diverse in mid‐elevational belts, where speciation rates are expected to be higher. The influence of these species was more prevalent in internal Andean slopes with no connection to the lowlands. The decline of species richness at high elevations may be related to higher extinction rates and lower resource levels.     

Synchronicity in elevation range shifts among small mammals and vegetation over the last century is stronger for omnivores

In mountain ecosystems, species can be said to respond synchronously to environmental change when the elevation ranges of vegetation types and their associated vertebrates expand or contract in the same direction. Conversely, the response is asynchronous when the elevation ranges of vegetation types and associated vertebrates change in different directions. The capacity of vertebrate species to respond synchronously with change in the elevation ranges of the vegetation that comprises their habitat is likely a function of their ecological traits. Here we combine measures of elevation range shifts in 23 vertebrate species with those of their associated vegetation types across 80 yr, on a large elevation transect in California's Sierra Nevada mountains that encompasses Yosemite National Park. Half the species’ shifts were synchronous with vegetation shifts, ¼ of the species were asynchronous, and the others showed no relationship. Most species that responded synchronously to changes in vegetation elevation ranges expanded their elevation range, and are inhabitants of low and intermediate elevations. In contrast, those species whose range shifts were asynchronous to associated vegetation shifts inhabit high elevations. These species experienced contraction in elevation range even while their associated vegetation types expanded. However, these species were responding synchronously to a subset of their associated vegetation types. Considering trait‐based predictors, omnivores were more synchronous than herbivores. Our results on synchronous and asynchronous elevation shifts with vegetation may permit more accurate modeling of future ranges for vertebrates in California's Sierra Nevada. The approach also offers a new method for use in assessment of vertebrate vulnerability in other mountain regions, and can be an important component of assessing their vulnerability to climate change.     

Potential consequences of climate warming for tropical plant species in high mountains of southern Ethiopia

Aim Species in the tropics respond to global warming by altitudinal distribution shifts. Consequences for biodiversity may be severe, resulting in lowland attrition, range‐shift gaps, range contractions and extinction risks. We aim to identify plant groups (growth forms, families, endemic status) with higher than average risks. Location South Ethiopian highlands. Methods Based on observational data from mainly unexplored and remote mountain regions, we applied a published model to project the consequences of an upward shift of thermal site conditions on the altitudinal distribution of 475 plant species. Annual average temperature increases of up to 5 °C were evaluated. Differences between groups of species were analysed by a permutation procedure and Generalized Linear Models. Results Because of a limited regional species pool, even mild warming is projected to create strong potential risks concerning lowland attrition, i.e. the net loss of species richness because of upward range shifts in the absence of new species arriving. Likewise, many species are expected to face range‐shift gaps, i.e. the absence of an overlap between future and current altitudinal ranges already under mild warming scenarios. Altitudinal contractions and mountain‐top extinctions will potentially become important when warming exceeds 3.5 °C. Mean area per species is projected to decline by 55% for the A2 emissions scenario (+4.2 °C until 2100) because of the physical shape of the mountains. Higher than average vulnerability is expected for endemic species as well as for herbs and ferns. Plant families that are especially threatened are identified. Main conclusions Lowland biotic attrition and range‐shift gaps as predicted by a simple model driven by shifts of isotherms will result in novel challenges for preserving mountain biodiversity in the inner tropics. Whereas contractions of occupied area are expected to threaten endemic and already endangered species in particular, we suggest that conservation priorities can be identified based on simple prognostic models even without precise regional warming scenarios.     

Birds on the move in the face of climate change: High species turnover in northern Europe

Species richness is predicted to increase in the northern latitudes in the warming climate due to ranges of many southern species expanding northwards. We studied changes in the composition of the whole avifauna and in bird species richness in a period of already warming climate in Finland (in northern Europe) covering 1,100 km in south–north gradient across the boreal zone (over 300,000 km²). We compared bird species richness and species‐specific changes (for all 235 bird species that occur in Finland) in range size (number of squares occupied) and range shifts (measured as median of area of occupancy) based on bird atlas studies between 1974–1989 and 2006–2010. In addition, we tested how the habitat preference and migration strategy of species explain species‐specific variation in the change of the range size. The study was carried out in 10 km squares with similar research intensity in both time periods. The species richness did not change significantly between the two time periods. The composition of the bird fauna, however, changed considerably with 37.0% of species showing an increase and 34.9% a decrease in the numbers of occupied squares, that is, about equal number of species gained and lost their range. Altogether 95.7% of all species (225/235) showed changes either in the numbers of occupied squares or they experienced a range shift (or both). The range size of archipelago birds increased and long‐distance migrants declined significantly. Range loss observed in long‐distance migrants is in line with the observed population declines of long‐distance migrants in the whole Europe. The results show that there is an ongoing considerable species turnover due to climate change and due to land use and other direct human influence. High bird species turnover observed in northern Europe may also affect the functional diversity of species communities.     

Elevational changes in the avian community of a Mesoamerican cloud forest park

Harboring many range‐restricted and specialized species, high elevation tropical cloud forests are diverse habitats represented in many protected areas. Despite this, many such areas receive little practical protection from deforestation and land conversion. Moreover, montane species may be more sensitive to climate change owing to various factors affecting community assembly across elevational gradients. Few studies have used annual monitoring to assess how biological communities in cloud forests may be shifting in response to habitat or climate change or assessed the efficacy of protected areas in buffering these effects. We analyzed avifaunal community trends in a 10‐yr dataset of constant‐effort bird point‐count data in a cloud forest national park in Honduras, Central America. We found that species richness and diversity increased at higher elevations, but decreased at lower elevations. Abundances of most dietary and forest‐dependency groups exhibited similar trends, and many key cloud forest species shifted upslope and/or increased in abundance. Taken together, our results suggest that the avian community is moving upslope and species composition is changing. Results for species richness and diversity were similar when only nondegraded transects were considered, suggesting the role of climate change as an important driver. At lower elevations, however, many species may be negatively affected by increased habitat degradation, favoring species with low forest dependency. Continued habitat conversion and climate change could push the cloud forest bird community further upslope, potentially resulting in increased competition, mortality, and even extirpation of some species. Increased protection is unlikely to mitigate the effects of climate change.     

Long‐term in situ persistence of biodiversity in tropical sky islands revealed by landscape genomics

Tropical mountains are areas of high species richness and endemism. Two historical phenomena may have contributed to this: (i) fragmentation and isolation of habitats may have promoted the genetic differentiation of populations and increased the possibility of allopatric divergence and speciation and (ii) the mountain areas may have allowed long‐term population persistence during global climate fluctuations. These two phenomena have been studied using either species occurrence data or estimating species divergence times. However, only few studies have used intraspecific genetic data to analyse the mechanisms by which endemism may emerge at the microevolutionary scale. Here, we use landscape analysis of genomic SNP data sampled from two high‐elevation plant species from an archipelago of tropical sky islands (the Trans‐Mexican Volcanic Belt) to test for population genetic differentiation, synchronous demographic changes and habitat persistence. We show that genetic differentiation can be explained by the degree of glacial habitat connectivity among mountains and that mountains have facilitated the persistence of populations throughout glacial/interglacial cycles. Our results support the ongoing role of tropical mountains as cradles for biodiversity by uncovering cryptic differentiation and limits to gene flow.     

Greater phenological sensitivity to temperature on higher Scottish mountains: new insights from remote sensing

Mountain plants are considered among the species most vulnerable to climate change, especially at high latitudes where there is little potential for poleward or uphill dispersal. Satellite monitoring can reveal spatiotemporal variation in vegetation activity, offering a largely unexploited potential for studying responses of montane ecosystems to temperature and predicting phenological shifts driven by climate change. Here, a novel remote‐sensing phenology approach is developed that advances existing techniques by considering variation in vegetation activity across the whole year, rather than just focusing on event dates (e.g. start and end of season). Time series of two vegetation indices (VI), normalized difference VI (NDVI) and enhanced VI (EVI) were obtained from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer MODIS satellite for 2786 Scottish mountain summits (600–1344 m elevation) in the years 2000–2011. NDVI and EVI time series were temporally interpolated to derive values on the first day of each month, for comparison with gridded monthly temperatures from the preceding period. These were regressed against temperature in the previous months, elevation and their interaction, showing significant variation in temperature sensitivity between months. Warm years were associated with high NDVI and EVI in spring and summer, whereas there was little effect of temperature in autumn and a negative effect in winter. Elevation was shown to mediate phenological change via a magnification of temperature responses on the highest mountains. Together, these predict that climate change will drive substantial changes in mountain summit phenology, especially by advancing spring growth at high elevations. The phenological plasticity underlying these temperature responses may allow long‐lived alpine plants to acclimate to warmer temperatures. Conversely, longer growing seasons may facilitate colonization and competitive exclusion by species currently restricted to lower elevations. In either case, these results show previously unreported seasonal and elevational variation in the temperature sensitivity of mountain vegetation activity.     

Rapid altitudinal migration of mountain plants in Taiwan and its implications for high altitude biodiversity

Mountain systems throughout the globe are characterized by high levels of species richness and species endemism. Biodiversity, however, is not distributed evenly with altitude, but often declines from mid to high altitudes. Conversely, endemic species may be over‐represented at high altitudes. Upward elevational range shifts of mountain species have been reported in response to ongoing changes in climate, yet the reports are dominated by studies on woody species and mountains at high latitudes. We investigated spatial and temporal changes in the mountain biodiversity in the subtropical island of Taiwan, based on historical survey and resurvey data during the period 1906–2006. We found that upper altitudinal limits of mountain plant distributions have risen by ca 3.6 m yr^?1 during the last century, in parallel with rising temperatures in the region. Although species, genus, and family richness decline with altitude, ca 55% of species at the highest altitudes are endemic to the island. Given the steep decline in land area with increasing elevation, these high altitude areas are disproportionately important for plant biodiversity when richness and endemism are standardized by available land area. We argue that the distributional shift that we report, in combination with the altitudinal distribution of plant diversity, is likely to pose a major threat to high mountain species of this highly biodiverse island, a threat that is becoming increasingly evident for high mountain plants throughout the globe.     

Climate change and the outbreak ranges of two North American bark beetles

Abstract

• 1 One expected effect of global climate change on insect populations is a shift in geographical distributions toward higher latitudes and higher elevations. Southern pine beetle Dendroctonus frontalis and mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae undergo regional outbreaks that result in large‐scale disturbances to pine forests in the south‐eastern and western United States, respectively.
• 2 Our objective was to investigate potential range shifts under climate change of outbreak areas for both bark beetle species and the areas of occurrence of the forest types susceptible to them.
• 3 To project range changes, we used discriminant function models that incorporated climatic variables. Models to project bark beetle ranges employed changed forest distributions as well as changes in climatic variables.
• 4 Projected outbreak areas for southern pine beetle increased with higher temperatures and generally shifted northward, as did the distributions of the southern pine forests.
• 5 Projected outbreak areas for mountain pine beetle decreased with increasing temperature and shifted toward higher elevation. That trend was mirrored in the projected distributions of pine forests in the region of the western U.S. encompassed by the study.
• 6 Projected outbreak areas for the two bark beetle species and the area of occurrence of western pine forests increased with more precipitation and decreased with less precipitation, whereas the area of occurrence of southern pine forests decreased slightly with increasing precipitation.
• 7 Predicted shifts of outbreak ranges for both bark beetle species followed general expectations for the effects of global climate change and reflected the underlying long‐term distributional shifts of their host forests.