Construction of a large scale integrated map of macrophage pathogen recognition and effector systems

Background

Mathematical models provide abstract representations of the information gained from experimental observations on the structure and function of a particular biological system. Conferring a predictive character on a given mathematical formulation often relies on determining a number of non-measurable parameters that largely condition the model's response. These parameters can be identified by fitting the model to experimental data. However, this fit can only be accomplished when identifiability can be guaranteed.

Results

We propose a novel iterative identification procedure for detecting and dealing with the lack of identifiability. The procedure involves the following steps: 1) performing a structural identifiability analysis to detect identifiable parameters; 2) globally ranking the parameters to assist in the selection of the most relevant parameters; 3) calibrating the model using global optimization methods; 4) conducting a practical identifiability analysis consisting of two (a priori and a posteriori) phases aimed at evaluating the quality of given experimental designs and of the parameter estimates, respectively and 5) optimal experimental design so as to compute the scheme of experiments that maximizes the quality and quantity of information for fitting the model.

Conclusions

The presented procedure was used to iteratively identify a mathematical model that describes the NF-κB regulatory module involving several unknown parameters. We demonstrated the lack of identifiability of the model under typical experimental conditions and computed optimal dynamic experiments that largely improved identifiability properties.     

Modeling and Estimation of Kinetic Parameters and Replicative Fitness of HIV-1 from Flow-Cytometry-Based Growth Competition Experiments

Growth competition assays have been developed to quantify the relative fitness of HIV-1 mutants. In this article, we develop mathematical models to describe viral/cellular dynamic interactions in the assay system from which the competitive fitness indices or parameters are defined. In our previous HIV-viral fitness experiments, the concentration of uninfected target cells was assumed to be constant (Wu et al. 2006). But this may not be true in some experiments. In addition, dual infection may frequently occur in viral fitness experiments and may not be ignorable. Here, we relax these two assumptions and extend our earlier viral fitness model (Wu et al. 2006). The resulting models then become nonlinear ODE systems for which closed-form solutions are not achievable. In the new model, the viral relative fitness is a function of time since it depends on the target cell concentration. First, we studied the structure identifiability of the nonlinear ODE models. The identifiability analysis showed that all parameters in the proposed models are identifiable from the flow-cytometry-based experimental data that we collected. We then employed a global optimization approach (the differential evolution algorithm) to directly estimate the kinetic parameters as well as the relative fitness index in the nonlinear ODE models using nonlinear least square regression based on the experimental data. Practical identifiability was investigated via Monte Carlo simulations.     

Development of a compartmental model of human zinc metabolism: identifiability and multiple studies analyses

A compartmental model of zinc metabolism has been developed from stable isotope tracer studies of five healthy adults. Multiple isotope tracers were administered orally and intravenously, and the resulting enrichment was measured in plasma, erythrocytes, urine, and feces for as long as 3 wk. Data from total zinc measurements and model-independent calculations of various steady-state parameters were also modeled with the kinetic data. A structure comprised of 14 compartments and as many as 25 unknown kinetic parameters was developed to adequately model the data from each of the individual studies. The structural identifiability of the model was established using the GLOBI2 identifiability analysis software. Numerical identifiability of parameter estimates was evaluated using statistical data provided by SAAM. A majority of the model parameters was estimated with sufficient statistical certainty to be considered well determined. After the fitting of the model and data from the individual studies using SAAM/CONSAM, results were submitted to SAAM extended multiple studies analysis for aggregation into a single set of population parameters and statistics. The model was judged to be valid based on criteria described elsewhere.     

A PDMP model of the epithelial cell turn-over in the intestinal crypt including microbiota-derived regulations

Mechanistic models are a powerful tool to gain insights into biological processes. The parameters of such models, e.g. kinetic rate constants, usually cannot be measured directly but need to be inferred from experimental data. In this article, we study dynamical models of the translation kinetics after mRNA transfection and analyze their parameter identifiability. That is, whether parameters can be uniquely determined from perfect or realistic data in theory and practice. Previous studies have considered ordinary differential equation (ODE) models of the process, and here we formulate a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model. For both model types, we consider structural identifiability based on the model equations and practical identifiability based on simulated as well as experimental data and find that the SDE model provides better parameter identifiability than the ODE model. Moreover, our analysis shows that even for those parameters of the ODE model that are considered to be identifiable, the obtained estimates are sometimes unreliable. Overall, our study clearly demonstrates the relevance of considering different modeling approaches and that stochastic models can provide more reliable and informative results.

     

Conceptual, methodological and computational issues concerning the compartmental modeling of a complex biological system: Postprandial inter-organ metabolism of dietary nitrogen in humans

A multi-compartmental model has been developed to describe dietary nitrogen (N) postprandial distribution and metabolism in humans. This paper details the entire process of model development, including the successive steps of its construction, parameter estimation and validation. The model was built using experimental data on dietary N kinetics in certain accessible pools of the intestine, blood and urine in healthy adults fed a [15N]-labeled protein meal. A 13-compartment, 21-parameter model was selected from candidate models of increasing order as being the minimum structure able to properly fit experimental data for all sampled compartments. Problems of theoretical identifiability and numerical identification of the model both constituted mathematical challenges that were difficult to solve because of the large number of unknown parameters and the few experimental data available. For this reason, new robust and reliable methods were applied, which enabled (i) a check that all model parameters could theoretically uniquely be determined and (ii) an estimation of their numerical values with satisfactory precision from the experimental data. Finally, model validation was completed by first verifying its a posteriori identifiability and then carrying out external validation.     

Cellular signaling identifiability analysis: A case study

Two primary purposes for mathematical modeling in cell biology are (1) simulation for making predictions of experimental outcomes and (2) parameter estimation for drawing inferences from experimental data about unobserved aspects of biological systems. While the former purpose has become common in the biological sciences, the latter is less common, particularly when studying cellular and subcellular phenomena such as signaling—the focus of the current study. Data are difficult to obtain at this level. Therefore, even models of only modest complexity can contain parameters for which the available data are insufficient for estimation. In the present study, we use a set of published cellular signaling models to address issues related to global parameter identifiability. That is, we address the following question: assuming known time courses for some model variables, which parameters is it theoretically impossible to estimate, even with continuous, noise-free data? Following an introduction to this problem and its relevance, we perform a full identifiability analysis on a set of cellular signaling models using DAISY (Differential Algebra for the Identifiability of SYstems). We use our analysis to bring to light important issues related to parameter identifiability in ordinary differential equation (ODE) models. We contend that this is, as of yet, an under-appreciated issue in biological modeling and, more particularly, cell biology.     

Parameter Identifiability and Redundancy: Theoretical Considerations

Background

Models for complex biological systems may involve a large number of parameters. It may well be that some of these parameters cannot be derived from observed data via regression techniques. Such parameters are said to be unidentifiable, the remaining parameters being identifiable. Closely related to this idea is that of redundancy, that a set of parameters can be expressed in terms of some smaller set. Before data is analysed it is critical to determine which model parameters are identifiable or redundant to avoid ill-defined and poorly convergent regression.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In this paper we outline general considerations on parameter identifiability, and introduce the notion of weak local identifiability and gradient weak local identifiability. These are based on local properties of the likelihood, in particular the rank of the Hessian matrix. We relate these to the notions of parameter identifiability and redundancy previously introduced by Rothenberg (Econometrica 39 (1971) 577–591) and Catchpole and Morgan (Biometrika 84 (1997) 187–196). Within the widely used exponential family, parameter irredundancy, local identifiability, gradient weak local identifiability and weak local identifiability are shown to be largely equivalent. We consider applications to a recently developed class of cancer models of Little and Wright (Math Biosciences 183 (2003) 111–134) and Little et al. (J Theoret Biol 254 (2008) 229–238) that generalize a large number of other recently used quasi-biological cancer models.

Conclusions/Significance

We have shown that the previously developed concepts of parameter local identifiability and redundancy are closely related to the apparently weaker properties of weak local identifiability and gradient weak local identifiability—within the widely used exponential family these concepts largely coincide.     

Identifiability and retrievability of unique parameters describing intrinsic Andrews kinetics

A key factor contributing to the variability in the microbial kinetic parameters reported from batch assays is parameter identifiability, i.e., the ability of the mathematical routine used for parameter estimation to provide unique estimates of the individual parameter values. This work encompassed a three-part evaluation of the parameter identifiability of intrinsic kinetic parameters describing the Andrews growth model that are obtained from batch assays. First, a parameter identifiability analysis was conducted by visually inspecting the sensitivity equations for the Andrews growth model. Second, the practical retrievability of the parameters in the presence of experimental error was evaluated for the parameter estimation routine used. Third, the results of these analyses were tested using an example data set from the literature for a self-inhibitory substrate. The general trends from these analyses were consistent and indicated that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to simultaneously obtain a unique set of estimates of intrinsic kinetic parameters for the Andrews growth model using data from a single batch experiment.     

The structural identifiability and parameter estimation of a multispecies model for the transmission of mastitis in dairy cows with postmilking teat disinfection

A mathematical model for the transmission of two interacting classes of mastitis causing bacterial pathogens in a herd of dairy cows is presented and applied to a specific data set. The data were derived from a field trial of a specific measure used in the control of these pathogens, where half the individuals were subjected to the control and in the others the treatment was discontinued. The resultant mathematical model (eight non-linear simultaneous ordinary differential equations) therefore incorporates heterogeneity in the host as well as the infectious agent and consequently the effects of control are intrinsic in the model structure. A structural identifiability analysis of the model is presented demonstrating that the scope of the novel method used allows application to high order non-linear systems. The results of a simultaneous estimation of six unknown system parameters are presented. Previous work has only estimated a subset of these either simultaneously or individually. Therefore not only are new estimates provided for the parameters relating to the transmission and control of the classes of pathogens under study, but also information about the relationships between them. We exploit the close link between mathematical modelling, structural identifiability analysis, and parameter estimation to obtain biological insights into the system modelled.     

Structural identifiability of systems biology models: a critical comparison of methods

Analysing the properties of a biological system through in silico experimentation requires a satisfactory mathematical representation of the system including accurate values of the model parameters. Fortunately, modern experimental techniques allow obtaining time-series data of appropriate quality which may then be used to estimate unknown parameters. However, in many cases, a subset of those parameters may not be uniquely estimated, independently of the experimental data available or the numerical techniques used for estimation. This lack of identifiability is related to the structure of the model, i.e. the system dynamics plus the observation function. Despite the interest in knowing a priori whether there is any chance of uniquely estimating all model unknown parameters, the structural identifiability analysis for general non-linear dynamic models is still an open question. There is no method amenable to every model, thus at some point we have to face the selection of one of the possibilities. This work presents a critical comparison of the currently available techniques. To this end, we perform the structural identifiability analysis of a collection of biological models. The results reveal that the generating series approach, in combination with identifiability tableaus, offers the most advantageous compromise among range of applicability, computational complexity and information provided.     

Mixed-up Trees: the Structure of Phylogenetic Mixtures

In this paper, we apply new geometric and combinatorial methods to the study of phylogenetic mixtures. The focus of the geometric approach is to describe the geometry of phylogenetic mixture distributions for the two state random cluster model, which is a generalization of the two state symmetric (CFN) model. In particular, we show that the set of mixture distributions forms a convex polytope and we calculate its dimension; corollaries include a simple criterion for when a mixture of branch lengths on the star tree can mimic the site pattern frequency vector of a resolved quartet tree. Furthermore, by computing volumes of polytopes we can clarify how “common” non-identifiable mixtures are under the CFN model. We also present a new combinatorial result which extends any identifiability result for a specific pair of trees of size six to arbitrary pairs of trees. Next we present a positive result showing identifiability of rates-across-sites models. Finally, we answer a question raised in a previous paper concerning “mixed branch repulsion” on trees larger than quartet trees under the CFN model. F.A. Matsen’s and M. Steel’s research was supported by the Allan Wilson Centre for Molecular Ecology and Evolution. E. Mossel’s research was supported by a Sloan fellowship in Mathematics, NSF awards DMS 0528488 and DMS 0548249 (CAREER) and by ONR grant N0014-07-1-05-06.     

Structural identifiability of polynomial and rational systems

Since analysis and simulation of biological phenomena require the availability of their fully specified models, one needs to be able to estimate unknown parameter values of the models. In this paper we deal with identifiability of parametrizations which is the property of one-to-one correspondence of parameter values and the corresponding outputs of the models. Verification of identifiability of a parametrization precedes estimation of numerical values of parameters, and thus determination of a fully specified model of a considered phenomenon. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the parametrizations of polynomial and rational systems to be structurally or globally identifiable. The results are applied to investigate the identifiability properties of the system modeling a chain of two enzyme-catalyzed irreversible reactions. The other examples deal with the phenomena modeled by using Michaelis–Menten kinetics and the model of a peptide chain elongation.     

Identifiability of the joint distribution of age and tumor size at detection in the presence of screening

In recent years, a stochastic model of cancer development and detection allowing for arbitrary screening schedules has been developed and applied to analysis of screening trials and population-based cancer incidence and mortality data. The model is entirely mechanistic, builds on a minimal set of biologically plausible assumptions, and yields the joint distribution of tumor size and age of a patient at the time of diagnosis. Whether or not parameters of the model can be estimated from data generated by cohort studies depends on model identifiability. The present paper provides a proof of this important property of the model.     

Estimating and comparing thermal performance curves

I show how one can estimate the shape of a thermal performance curve using information theory. This approach ranks plausible models by their Akaike information criterion (AIC), which is a measure of a model's ability to describe the data discounted by the model's complexity. I analyze previously published data to demonstrate how one applies this approach to describe a thermal performance curve. This exemplary analysis produced two interesting results. First, a model with a very high r² (a modified Gaussian function) appeared to overfit the data. Second, the model favored by information theory (a Gaussian function) has been used widely in optimality studies of thermal performance curves. Finally, I discuss the choice between regression and ANOVA when comparing thermal performance curves and highlight a superior method called template mode of variation. Much progress can be made by abandoning traditional methods for a method that combines information theory with template mode of variation.     

Review: To be or not to be an identifiable model. Is this a relevant question in animal science modelling?

What is a good (useful) mathematical model in animal science? For models constructed for prediction purposes, the question of model adequacy (usefulness) has been traditionally tackled by statistical analysis applied to observed experimental data relative to model-predicted variables. However, little attention has been paid to analytic tools that exploit the mathematical properties of the model equations. For example, in the context of model calibration, before attempting a numerical estimation of the model parameters, we might want to know if we have any chance of success in estimating a unique best value of the model parameters from available measurements. This question of uniqueness is referred to as structural identifiability; a mathematical property that is defined on the sole basis of the model structure within a hypothetical ideal experiment determined by a setting of model inputs (stimuli) and observable variables (measurements). Structural identifiability analysis applied to dynamic models described by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is a common practice in control engineering and system identification. This analysis demands mathematical technicalities that are beyond the academic background of animal science, which might explain the lack of pervasiveness of identifiability analysis in animal science modelling. To fill this gap, in this paper we address the analysis of structural identifiability from a practitioner perspective by capitalizing on the use of dedicated software tools. Our objectives are (i) to provide a comprehensive explanation of the structural identifiability notion for the community of animal science modelling, (ii) to assess the relevance of identifiability analysis in animal science modelling and (iii) to motivate the community to use identifiability analysis in the modelling practice (when the identifiability question is relevant). We focus our study on ODE models. By using illustrative examples that include published mathematical models describing lactation in cattle, we show how structural identifiability analysis can contribute to advancing mathematical modelling in animal science towards the production of useful models and, moreover, highly informative experiments via optimal experiment design. Rather than attempting to impose a systematic identifiability analysis to the modelling community during model developments, we wish to open a window towards the discovery of a powerful tool for model construction and experiment design.     

Identifiability and online estimation of diagnostic parameters with in the glucose insulin homeostasis

Today, diagnostic decisions about pre-diabetes or diabetes are made using static threshold rules for the measured plasma glucose. In order to develop an alternative diagnostic approach, dynamic models as the Minimal Model may be deployed. We present a novel method to analyze the identifiability of model parameters based on the interpretation of the empirical observability Gramian. This allows a unifying view of both, the observability of the system's states (with dynamics) and the identifiability of the system's parameters (without dynamics). We give an iterative algorithm, in order to find an optimized set of states and parameters to be estimated. For this set, estimation results using an Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) are presented. Two parameters are of special interest for diagnostic purposes: the glucose effectiveness S(G) characterizes the ability of plasma glucose clearance, and the insulin sensitivity S(I) quantifies the impact from the plasma insulin to the interstitial insulin subsystem. Applying the identifiability analysis to the trajectories of the insulin glucose system during an intravenous glucose tolerance test (IVGTT) shows the following result: (1) if only plasma glucose G(t) is measured, plasma insulin I(t) and S(G) can be estimated, but not S(I). (2) If plasma insulin I(t) is captured additionally, identifiability is improved significantly such that up to four model parameters can be estimated including S(I). (3) The situation of the first case can be improved, if a controlled external dosage of insulin is applied. Then, parameters of the insulin subsystem can be identified approximately from measurement of plasma glucose G(t) only.     

Non-linear PCA: a missing data approach

MOTIVATION: Visualizing and analysing the potential non-linear structure of a dataset is becoming an important task in molecular biology. This is even more challenging when the data have missing values. RESULTS: Here, we propose an inverse model that performs non-linear principal component analysis (NLPCA) from incomplete datasets. Missing values are ignored while optimizing the model, but can be estimated afterwards. Results are shown for both artificial and experimental datasets. In contrast to linear methods, non-linear methods were able to give better missing value estimations for non-linear structured data.Application: We applied this technique to a time course of metabolite data from a cold stress experiment on the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana, and could approximate the mapping function from any time point to the metabolite responses. Thus, the inverse NLPCA provides greatly improved information for better understanding the complex response to cold stress. CONTACT: scholz@mpimp-golm.mpg.de.     

A one-dimensional model of water flow in soil-plant systems based on plant architecture

The estimation of root water uptake and water flow in plants is crucial to quantify transpiration and hence the water exchange between land surface and atmosphere. In particular the soil water extraction by plant roots which provides the water supply of plants is a highly dynamic and non-linear process interacting with soil transport processes that are mainly determined by the natural soil variability at different scales. To better consider this root-soil interaction we extended and further developed a finite element tree hydro-dynamics model based on the one-dimensional (1D) porous media equation. This is achieved by including in addition to the explicit three-dimensional (3D) architectural representation of the tree crown a corresponding 3D characterisation of the root system. This 1D xylem water flow model was then coupled to a soil water flow model derived also from the 1D porous media equation. We apply the new model to conduct sensitivity analysis of root water uptake and transpiration dynamics and compare the results to simulation results obtained by using a 3D model of soil water flow and root water uptake. Based on data from lysimeter experiments with young European beech trees (Fagus silvatica L.) is shown, that the model is able to correctly describe transpiration and soil water flow. In conclusion, compared to a fully 3D model the 1D porous media approach provides a computationally efficient alternative, able to reproduce the main mechanisms of plant hydro-dynamics including root water uptake from soil.