Human modification of the landscape and surface climate in the next fifty years

Human modification of the landscape potentially affects exchanges of energy and water between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. This study develops a possible scenario for land cover in the year 2050 based on results from the IMAGE 2 (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect) model, which projects land‐cover changes in response to demographic and economic activity. We use the land‐cover scenario as a surface boundary condition in a biophysically‐based land‐surface model coupled to a general circulation model for a 15‐years simulation with prescribed sea surface temperature and compare with a control run using current land cover. To assess the sensitivity of climate to anthropogenic land‐cover change relative to the sensitivity to decadal‐scale interannual variations in vegetation density, we also carry out two additional simulations using observed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from relatively low (1982–83) and high (1989–90) years to describe the seasonal phenology of the vegetation. In the past several centuries, large‐scale land‐cover change occurred primarily in temperate latitudes through conversion of forests and grassland to highly productive cropland and pasture. Several studies in the literature indicate that past changes in surface climate resulting from this conversion had a cooling effect owing to changes in vegetation morphology (increased albedo). In contrast, this study indicates that future land‐cover change, likely to occur predominantly in the tropics and subtropics, has a warming effect governed by physiological rather than morphological mechanisms. The physiological mechanism is to reduce carbon assimilation and consequently latent relative to sensible heat flux resulting in surface temperature increases up to 2 °C and drier hydrologic conditions in locations where land cover was altered in the experiment. In addition, in contrast to an observed decrease in diurnal temperature range (DTR) over land expected with greenhouse warming, results here suggest that future land‐cover conversion in tropics could increase the DTR resulting from decreased evaporative cooling during the daytime. For grid cells with altered land cover, the sensitivity of surface temperature to future anthropogenic land‐cover change is generally within the range induced by decadal‐scale interannual variability in vegetation density in temperate latitudes but up to 1.5 °C warmer in the tropics.     

Holocene climatic changes in the Western Mediterranean, from south-east France to south-east Spain

Holocene climatic changes along coastal regions from south-east France to south-east Spain were studied using pollen ratios. Comparing modern pollen rain, vegetation and climate along selected transects from the Atlantic Ocean to the Mediterranean, we obtained threshold values of two different ratios corresponding to the different climatic conditions along the transects. These pollen ratios and threshold values were employed to characterize the Holocene climatic changes from nine Mediterranean coastal sites. The results were compared with data from marine and continental pollen sequences distributed in the western Mediterranean basin, and with additional regional data independent of human activity: lake-level fluctuations, alpine glacier advance and retreat chronology, ¹⁴C anomaly and cooling phases in Eastern France and Central Europe. The role of anthropogenic activities and climate on the changes in vegetation is discussed. Six major changes in vegetation cover were identified. They correspond to aridification phases that occurred around 9500–9000 yr BP (10 900–9700 cal BP), 7500–7000 yr BP (8400–7600 cal BP), 4500–4000 yr BP (5300–4200 cal BP), 3700–3300 yr BP (4300–3400 cal BP), 2600–1900 yr BP (2850–1730 cal BP) and 1300–1000 yr BP (1300–750 cal BP). These arid episodes were regional responses to more global climatic changes and determined the changes in the vegetation cover. Humans undoubtedly enhanced the vegetation changes, but none the less had to adapt to these new climatic conditions.     

Vegetation patterns and their dependency on site conditions in the pre-industrial landscape of north-eastern Japan

We reconstructed the vegetational landscape of the pre-industrial era (the beginning of the twentieth century) in north-eastern Japan, and estimated the distribution patterns of traditional land-uses, as suggested from the vegetation. We found significant correspondence between the spatial patterns of vegetational landscape and site attributes, and hypothesized the underlying mechanisms. The study area was classified into three vegetation types: grasslands, secondary forests and old-growth forests. It was determined that the grasslands were formed and maintained by burning; secondary forests were derived from either charcoal woods or forests recovered on abandoned grasslands; and old-growth forests had suffered the least anthropogenic disturbance. Each past vegetation type showed significant dependency on site attributes such as altitude, slope angle, slope aspect, hydrological topography and distance from the nearest human habitation. The relative importance of these site attributes varied depending on the vegetation type. Grasslands and old-growth forests, which were the most and the least disturbed sites in the study area, respectively, showed clear contrasts in their dependencies especially on the slope aspect and on elevation. These site attributes were thought to have had influences on each vegetation type by determining the inflammability of the site. Satellite photographs indicated that north-facing valleys had been relatively wet throughout the fire-prone spring season. Hence, these areas would have been free from frequent fire, and more likely to preserve old-growth forests. Ground wetness in spring was thought to be the underlying factor determining the contrasts in past vegetation and land-use patterns in the area.An erratum to this article can be found at     

喀斯特与非喀斯特区域植被覆盖变化景观分析——以广西壮族自治区河池市为例

根据1990年、2000年和2010年的3期Landsat TM数据,利用基于NDVI的像元二分模型,计算得出河池市的植被覆盖度空间分布数据,并将3期植被覆盖图与岩溶地质图进行叠加分析地质构造对植被覆盖度的影响;最后,从斑块类型和景观级别上选取10个景观指数进行空间格局变化的剖析。研究结果表明:1)30年来研究区植被覆盖度在增加,高植被覆盖区和较高植被覆盖区一直处于优势地位。2)30年来研究区景观异质性减弱,破碎度降低,景观优势度增加。3)30年来研究区的斑块形状主要取决于自然地貌及自然环境条件。4)30年来研究区景观整体的聚集程度在增加;研究区景观越来越由少数植被覆盖等级类型所控制。30年来,研究区植被景观的生态恢复是比较明显的,这与30年来研究区的经济社会发展的实际情况是相吻合的。研究可以得出非喀斯特区域的植被景观的生态恢复较喀斯特区域变化更明显;喀斯特区域的景观较非喀斯特区域更分散、更复杂;喀斯特区域的生态状况较非喀斯特区域更容易被破坏,并且恢复起来更困难。这说明了喀斯特生态系统的特殊性。     

Vegetation dynamics in central Africa since 18,000 yr BP: pollen records from the interlacustrine highlands of Burundi, Rwanda and western Uganda

A standardized analysis of palaeoecological data, in the form of six pollen sequences and forty- four radiocarbon ages, has permitted a region-wide reconstruction of Late Quaternary vegetation dynamics for the interlacustrine highlands of central Africa.
A landscape widely dominated by ericaceous scrub and grasslands, but also supporting sparse patches of open-canopied montane forest, possibly in those areas with a topography most favourable to the growth of trees, is indicated for the last glacial maximum of 18,000 yr bp . Major expansions in the extent of upper altitudinal forms of montane forest occurred from around 12,500 yr bp , while lower moist montane forest—the expected climax for much of the region today—did not become prominent until 11,000 yr bp to 10,000 yr bp . From the palaeoecological evidence at least, it appears that the major east Central forest refuge, proposed by some workers on the basis of current species' distribution patterns, did not extend to the eastern flanks of the Albertine Rift.
A late glacial–early Holocene transition is only fully chronicled in two of the sites. However, it appears that the expansion of lower montane forest had a time-transgressive pattern across the region, and was not simply from low to high altitude. The composition of forests during the early Holocene appears to have been different to that in the later stages of the present interglacial, as taxa presently associated with wetter and/or more open forest types were much more common. Pollen data also indicate that higher altitude parts of the interlacustrine highlands were more attractive to the earliest (possibly Bantu-speaking) farmers and metal-workers. There is evidence of wide-spread forest clearance around the beginning of the present millennium, possibly as a result of substantial changes in socio-economic conditions, and patterns of settlement, associated with the onset of the Late Iron Age.     

An example of Holocene vegetation stability from Camerons Lagoon,a near treeline site on the Central Plateau,Tasmania

Abstract A discontinuous record of vegetation over the past 7500 years was obtained through pollen analysis of pond sediments from an extensive treeless plain on the relatively dry Central Plateau of Tasmania. The results demonstrate continuity of treeless conditions, which probably persisted from the Pleistocene throughout the Holocene, up to the present day. Some changes to the structure of the grassland were observed, especially over the past 200 years. Analysis of carbonized particles showed that fires had been infrequent over the period examined. It seems that this area, close to the altitudinal tree limit, has remained a natural grassland, and the hypothesis of Jackson (1973), that unreliable summer conditions may be a major factor in maintaining open conditions, is supported. Parts of the Central Plateau may thus preserve plant communities with some of the floristic elements and structure of widespread Bassian grasslands of the Late Pleistocene.     

Post‐glacial patterns in vegetation dynamics in Romania: homogenization or differentiation?

Aim This paper examines eight fossil pollen datasets from Romania with the aim of exploring regional and elevational patterns in site similarity throughout the Holocene. In particular, we aim to determine whether there are clear intervals of homogenization/differentiation and to ascertain the potential driving factors. Location Romania. Methods Qualitative (pollen diagrams) and numerical methods including principal components analysis and Bray–Curtis similarity analyses were used. Results We found strong variability in the past vegetation dynamics during the Holocene. Bray–Curtis similarity analyses show large fluctuations in vegetation similarity and distinct periods of homogenization and differentiation throughout the Holocene. The magnitude and length of these periods appear quite variable in time, but the significant ones can be delimited as follows: (1) differentiation between 11,250 and 11,000 cal. yr bp , 10,000 and 9750 cal. yr bp , 6000 and 5750 cal. yr bp , 2500 and 2250 cal. yr bp , and especially over the last 200 years; and (2) homogenization between 9750 and 9500 cal. yr bp , and 2750 and 2500 cal. yr bp , with more stable periods between 9000 and 7750 cal. yr bp , 4750 and 3500 cal. yr bp , and 2000 and 1000 cal. yr bp . Main conclusions First, periods of biotic homogenization that occurred before significant anthropogenic impact on vegetation demonstrate that not all homogenization is a product of anthropogenic change: it can also be driven by natural causes. In fact, recent human impact (over the last 200 years) appears to have resulted in increased regional differentiation and not in homogenization – a result that contradicts most studies based on more modern, short‐term records. Second, both abiotic (climate and disturbance) and biotic factors are likely drivers of intervals of differentiation and homogenization. We suggest that differentiation may be triggered primarily by climate changes and disturbances (mostly natural pre‐2500 cal. yr bp and human‐induced thereafter), whereas homogenization may be driven predominantly by biotic interactions (e.g. immigration and interspecific competition). Third, this long‐term study raises awareness that assessments of pattern in vegetation homogenization/differentiation may depend on the specific time period and length of investigation. Long‐term investigations through multiple generations are likely to yield particularly useful information on the mechanisms and effects of biotic homogenization.     

Holocene pollen diagrams from Greece

Pollen diagrams are presented from three sites in Greece. Two cores from the Strymon Delta in Macedonia are thought to span parts of the period from Classical to Turkish times. A dated core from Kleonai in the Peloponnese has good pollen preservation in the early Neolithic, Bronze Age and Roman periods. A peat bog at Asi Gonia in the White Mountains of Crete has a continuous pollen record for the last 1500 years. The palynological evidence for human impact in various historic periods is assessed in the light of archaeological evidence. The problems of interpretation of pollen cores from Greece are discussed and the complex inter‐relationship between human impact and environmental factors is emphasised.     

2000—2015年西南地区土地利用与植被覆盖的时空变化

西南地区是我国重要的生态资源区和生态脆弱区,在国家“绿水青山”战略发展中具有重要地位。本研究基于1 km空间分辨率的土地利用数据集,结合土地利用转移矩阵,定量分析2000—2015年间西南地区土地利用变化特征及其驱动力。并基于MODIS遥感植被指数,利用像元二分模型计算西南地区植被覆盖度,分析归一化植被指数(NDVI)和植被覆盖度的变化规律。结果表明: 研究期间,西南地区的主要地类是林地、农田和草地。建设用地面积增加5874 km²,增长率为55.8%;农田面积减少最多,下降6211 km²,其次是草地,减少2099 km²。2000—2015年间,西南地区建设用地的转入面积最多,主要由农田(贡献率68.2%)、林地(贡献率19.2%)和草地(贡献率13.1%)转化而来,转化的区域多靠近城区。农田的转出面积和转出率分别为7079 km²和2.2%,占所有转出类型面积的46.0%。林地多由草地(贡献率61.8%)转化而来,转化区域多分布在贵州中南部和云南西部等地。全区NDVI和植被覆盖度均呈显著增加趋势,说明研究区整体呈变绿趋势。其中,自然植被和农田的NDVI均显著增长,建设用地扩张地区的NDVI下降,说明自然植被和农田主导了该地区植被变化。通过残差分析发现,气候变化和人类活动对研究区变绿趋势的贡献显著。