共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
The shallow water comatulid crinoid Tropiometra carinata is native to both the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, a distribution anomalous among shallow water crinoids and many other broadcast spawning species. Given this species' short pelagic larval duration, the findings of previous work that suggest that the Benguela upwelling is a significant barrier to gene flow in broadcast spawning species, and T. carinata's unexpected geographic distribution, we predicted that the crinoids presently recognized as T. carinata consisted of a species complex. To test this prediction, we sequenced a portion of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase 1 gene from 30 individuals of T. carinata collected from Brazil, the Mozambique Channel, Madagascar, and Reunion Island. We found that nucleotide divergence ranged 0.02–3.10% among haplotypes. Moreover, while a Bayesian phylogenetic tree indicated that there were two substantially divergent genetic lineages, there was no evidence to support that T. carinata is comprised of a species complex due to isolation‐by‐distance. Surprisingly, both lineages were found in sympatry in both the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Likewise, a 95% parsimony haplotype network revealed that identical haplotypes are found in both oceans, suggesting that a species complex may indeed exist, just not one caused by geographic isolation. We discuss possible explanations for this unexpected genetic structure, such as natural dispersal or human‐mediated movement, and how the genetic structure found here is relevant to other marine organisms and to cryptic speciation. 相似文献
2.
Jeffrey M. Leis Jennifer E. Caselle Ian R. Bradbury Trond Kristiansen Joel K. Llopiz Michael J. Miller Mary I. O'Connor Claire B. Paris Alan L. Shanks Susan M. Sogard Stephen E. Swearer Eric A. Treml Russell D. Vetter Robert R. Warner 《Proceedings. Biological sciences / The Royal Society》2013,280(1759)
Several factors lead to expectations that the scale of larval dispersal and population connectivity of marine animals differs with latitude. We examine this expectation for demersal shorefishes, including relevant mechanisms, assumptions and evidence. We explore latitudinal differences in (i) biological (e.g. species composition, spawning mode, pelagic larval duration, PLD), (ii) physical (e.g. water movement, habitat fragmentation), and (iii) biophysical factors (primarily temperature, which could strongly affect development, swimming ability or feeding). Latitudinal differences exist in taxonomic composition, habitat fragmentation, temperature and larval swimming, and each difference could influence larval dispersal. Nevertheless, clear evidence for latitudinal differences in larval dispersal at the level of broad faunas is lacking. For example, PLD is strongly influenced by taxon, habitat and geographical region, but no independent latitudinal trend is present in published PLD values. Any trends in larval dispersal may be obscured by a lack of appropriate information, or use of ‘off the shelf’ information that is biased with regard to the species assemblages in areas of concern. Biases may also be introduced from latitudinal differences in taxa or spawning modes as well as limited latitudinal sampling. We suggest research to make progress on the question of latitudinal trends in larval dispersal. 相似文献
3.
Increasing dispersal duration should result in increasing dispersal distance, facilitating higher gene flow among populations. As such, it has long been predicted that genetic structure (e.g. F(ST) ) among populations of marine species should be strongly correlated with pelagic larval duration (PLD). However, previous studies have repeatedly shown a surprisingly poor correspondence. This result has been frequently interpreted as evidence for larval behaviours or physical oceanographic processes that result in larvae failing to reach their dispersal potential, or error inherent in estimating PLD and F(ST) . This study employed a computer modelling approach to explore the impacts of various uncertainties on the correlation between measures of genetic differentiation such as F(ST) and PLD. Results indicate that variation resulting from PLD estimation error had minor impacts on the correlation between genetic structure and PLD. However, variation in effective population size between species, errors in F(ST) estimation and non-equilibrium F(ST) values all had major impacts, resulting in dramatically weaker correlations between PLD and F(ST) . These results suggest that poor correlations between PLD and F(ST) may result from variation and uncertainty in the terms associated with the calculation of F(ST) values. As such, PLD may be a much stronger determinant of realized larval dispersal than suggested by the weak-to-moderate correlations between PLD and F(ST) reported in empirical studies. 相似文献
4.
Martine Claremont Suzanne T. Williams Timothy G. Barraclough David G. Reid 《Journal of Biogeography》2011,38(6):1016-1032
Aim We use the Stramonita haemastoma species complex (Muricidae) to investigate the geographic scale of speciation in a marine snail with a long pelagic larval duration (PLD) of 2–3 months and, consequently, high dispersal potential. We aim to: (1) delimit species within Stramonita, (2) discover the phylogenetic relationship among them, (3) map their distributions, and (4) infer the age and likely cause of speciation events. Location Tropical intertidal of the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans. Methods We use one nuclear and two mitochondrial genes to construct a molecular phylogeny of the S. haemastoma species complex. We first test the monophyly of the genus and of the species complex, and then use statistical methods to delimit species within the complex. We incorporate information from museum collections and the literature to map distributions and to look for diagnostic morphological traits. We use fossils to date our phylogeny. Results The genus Stramonita is monophyletic and restricted to the tropical and warm‐temperate Atlantic and eastern Pacific oceans. The genus is composed of Stramonita delessertiana and six members of the S. haemastoma complex: S. haemastoma, Stramonita rustica, Stramonita floridana, Stramonita canaliculata, Stramonita biserialis and Stramonita brasiliensis (new species described herein). These species are supported by reciprocal monophyly in mitochondrial gene trees, together with independent evidence from morphology, distribution and the nuclear gene. The species are almost entirely allopatric, with only three instances of sympatry. Two species have unusually wide distributions, consistent with their long PLD; one of these is amphi‐Atlantic. Main conclusions Despite the long PLD of Stramonita, speciation has occurred within the Atlantic, both in response to barriers operating at the largest geographical scale (the width of Atlantic, but not the Amazon barrier) and at a smaller scale within the western Atlantic. 相似文献
5.
Benthic marine organisms are characterized by a bipartite life history in which populations of sedentary adults are connected by oceanic transport of planktonic propagules. In contrast with the terrestrial case, where ‘long distance dispersal’ (LDD) has traditionally been viewed as a process involving rare events, this creates the possibility for large numbers of offspring to travel far relative to the spatial scale of adult populations. As a result, the concept of LDD must be examined carefully when applied in a marine context. Any measure of LDD requires reference to an explicit ‘local’ scale, often defined in terms of adult population demography, habitat patchiness, or the average dispersal distance. Terms such as ‘open’ and ‘closed’ are relative, and should be used with caution, especially when compared across different taxa and systems. We use recently synthesized data on marine propagule dispersal potential and the spread of marine invasive species to draw inferences about average and maximum effective dispersal distances for marine taxa. Foremost, our results indicate that dispersal occurs at a wide range of scales in marine communities. The nonrandom distribution of these scales among community members has implications for marine community dynamics, and for the implementation of marine conservation efforts. Second, in agreement with theoretical results, our data illustrate that average and extreme dispersal scales do not necessarily covary. This further confounds simple classifications of ‘short’ and ‘long’ dispersers, because different ecological processes (e.g. range expansion vs. population replenishment) depend on different aspects of the dispersal pattern (e.g. extremes vs. average). Our findings argue for a more rigorous quantitative view of scale in the study of marine dispersal processes, where relative terms such as ‘short’ and ‘long’, ‘open’ and ‘closed’, ‘retained’ and ‘exported’ are defined only in conjunction with explicit definitions of the scale and process of interest. This shift in perspective represents an important step towards unifying theoretical and empirical studies of dispersal processes in marine and terrestrial systems. 相似文献
6.
Matthew Iacchei Tal Ben‐Horin Kimberly A. Selkoe Christopher E. Bird Francisco J. García‐Rodríguez Robert J. Toonen 《Molecular ecology》2013,22(13):3476-3494
We combine kinship estimates with traditional F‐statistics to explain contemporary drivers of population genetic differentiation despite high gene flow. We investigate range‐wide population genetic structure of the California spiny (or red rock) lobster (Panulirus interruptus) and find slight, but significant global population differentiation in mtDNA (ΦST = 0.006, P = 0.001; Dest_Chao = 0.025) and seven nuclear microsatellites (FST = 0.004, P < 0.001; Dest_Chao = 0.03), despite the species’ 240‐ to 330‐day pelagic larval duration. Significant population structure does not correlate with distance between sampling locations, and pairwise FST between adjacent sites often exceeds that among geographically distant locations. This result would typically be interpreted as unexplainable, chaotic genetic patchiness. However, kinship levels differ significantly among sites (pseudo‐F16,988 = 1.39, P = 0.001), and ten of 17 sample sites have significantly greater numbers of kin than expected by chance (P < 0.05). Moreover, a higher proportion of kin within sites strongly correlates with greater genetic differentiation among sites (Dest_Chao, R2 = 0.66, P < 0.005). Sites with elevated mean kinship were geographically proximate to regions of high upwelling intensity (R2 = 0.41, P = 0.0009). These results indicate that P. interruptus does not maintain a single homogenous population, despite extreme dispersal potential. Instead, these lobsters appear to either have substantial localized recruitment or maintain planktonic larval cohesiveness whereby siblings more likely settle together than disperse across sites. More broadly, our results contribute to a growing number of studies showing that low FST and high family structure across populations can coexist, illuminating the foundations of cryptic genetic patterns and the nature of marine dispersal. 相似文献
7.
The marine environment offers few obvious barriers to dispersal for broadcast-spawning species, yet population genetic structure can occur on a scale much smaller than the theoretical limits of larval dispersal. Comparative phylogeographical studies of sympatric sister species can illuminate how differences in life history, behaviour, and habitat affinity influence population partitioning. Here we use a mitochondrial DNA marker (612 bp of cytochrome c oxidase subunit I) to investigate population structure of three endemic Hawaiian broadcast-spawning limpets (Cellana spp.) with planktonic larvae that are competent to settle within 4 days. All three species exhibit significant population structure and isolation by distance, but the spatial scales of partitioning differ among the species. Cellana talcosa (n = 105) exhibits strong population structure between Kauai and the other main Hawaiian Islands (MHI) where the maximum channel width is 117 km, and no shared haplotypes were observed (Phi(CT) = 0.30, P < 0.001). In contrast, populations of Cellana exarata (n = 149) and Cellana sandwicensis (n = 109) exhibit weaker population structure within the MHI (Phi(ST) = 0.03-0.04, P < 0.05), and between the MHI and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (Phi(ST) = 0.03-0.09, P < 0.01), where the maximum channel width is 260 km. Biogeographical range and microhabitat use were correlated with estimates of dispersal, while phylogenetic affiliation and minimum pelagic larval duration were poor predictors of population partitioning. Despite similar life histories, these closely related limpets have contrasting patterns of population structure, illustrating the danger of relying on model species in management initiatives to predict population structure and dispersal in the context of marine protected area delineation. 相似文献
8.
Twenty‐three microsatellites were isolated from the yellow tang (Zebrasoma flavescens), an ecologically and commercially important reef fish. Genetic diversity was assessed in 90 adults collected from Honokohau, Hawaii. The number of alleles per locus varied from four to 29 (mean = 13.8) and observed and expected heterozygosities ranged from 0.15 to 0.94 (mean = 0.70) and from 0.29 to 0.93 (mean = 0.81), respectively. Eight loci exhibited significant departure from Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium due to the presence of null alleles. Exact tests showed no evidence of genotypic disequilibrium between loci. Overall, loci were well resolved, easy to score and highly polymorphic. 相似文献
9.
Dawson MN 《Molecular ecology》2012,21(4):987-1004
Present-day phylogeographic patterns have been shaped by the dual histories of lineages and places, producing a diversity of relationships that may challenge discovery of general rules. For example, the predicted positive correlation between dispersal ability and gene flow has been supported inconsistently, suggesting unaccounted complexity in theory or the comparative framework. Here, I extend the sympatric sister-species approach, in which variance between lineages and places is minimized, to sister clades and test a fundamental assumption of comparative genetic studies of dispersal: that taxa which evolved at the same time and in the same place will, if they have similar life histories and ecologies, have essentially the same phylogeographic structure. Phylogenetic analyses of 197 Stigmatopora pipefishes using two nuclear (creatine kinase intron 6, α-tropomyosin) and two mitochondrial (16S, noncoding region) loci revealed largely synchronous parallel diversification of sister clades that are codistributed from Western Australia to New Zealand, supporting the null hypothesis. Only one comparison, however, yielded a sympatric sister-species pair (the two stem species), so I also explored the potential for extant species sharing a substantial proportion of their evolutionary histories in sympatry to substitute for sister taxon comparisons. In eastern Australia, where strong environmental structure is lacking, phylogeographic differences between species that have been codistributed for ~85% of their evolutionary histories were consistent with tendencies favoured by their modest life-history differences, that is the larger, rarer species had lower genetic diversity. In contrast, in New Zealand, two species codistributed for ~70% of their evolutionary histories were both structured similarly by a strong biogeographic filter despite differences in life history. Rigorously quantifying the influence of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on phylogeographic structure may advance most efficiently through meta-analyses of contemporaneously codistributed taxa, including but not limited to sympatric sister species. 相似文献
10.
Bunce JA 《Photosynthesis research》2000,63(1):59-67
To determine how parameters of a Farquhar-type photosynthesis model varied with measurement temperature and with growth temperature, eight cool and warm climate herbaceous crop and weed species were grown at 15 and 25 °C and single leaf carbon dioxide and water vapor exchange rates were measured over the range of 15 – 35 °C. Photosynthetic parameters examined were the initial slope of the response of assimilation rate (A) to substomatal carbon dioxide concentration (Ci), A at high Ci, and stomatal conductance. The first two measurements allow calculation of VCmax, the maximum rate of carboxylation of ribulose bisphosphate carboxylase and Jmax, the maximum rate of photosynthetic electron transport, of Farquhar-type photosynthesis models. In all species, stomatal conductance increased exponentially with temperature over the whole range of 15 – 35 °C, even when A decreased at high measurement temperature. There were larger increases in conductance over this temperature range in the warm climate species (4.3 ×) than in the cool climate species (2.5 ×). The initial slope of A vs. Ci exhibited an optimum temperature which ranged from 20 to 30 °C. There was a larger increase in the optimum temperature of the initial slope at the warmer growth temperature in the cool climate species than in the warm climate species. The optimum temperature for A at high Ci ranged from 25 to 30 °C among species, but changed little with growth temperature. The absolute values of both the initial slope of A vs. Ci and A at high Ci were increased about 10% by growth at the warmer temperature in the warm climate species, and decreased about 20% in the cool climate species. The ratio of Jmax — VCmax normalized to 20 °C varied by more than a factor of 2 across species and growth temperatures, but differences in the temperature response of photosynthesis were more related to variation in the temperature dependencies of Jmax and VCmax than to the ratio of their normalized values.This revised version was published online in October 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
11.
Anna Kuparinen Gabriel Katul Ran Nathan Frank M. Schurr 《Proceedings. Biological sciences / The Royal Society》2009,276(1670):3081-3087
Long-distance dispersal (LDD) of seeds and pollen shapes the spatial dynamics of plant genotypes, populations and communities. Quantifying LDD is thus important for predicting the future dynamics of plants exposed to environmental changes. However, environmental changes can also alter the behaviour of LDD vectors: for instance, increasing air temperature may enhance atmospheric instability, thereby altering the turbulent airflow that transports seed and pollen. Here, we investigate temperature effects on wind dispersal in a boreal forest using a 10-year time series of micrometeorological measurements and a Lagrangian stochastic model for particle transport. For a wide range of dispersal and life history types, we found positive relations between air temperature and LDD. This translates into a largely consistent positive effect of +3°C warming on predicted LDD frequencies and spread rates of plants. Relative increases in LDD frequency tend to be higher for heavy-seeded plants, whereas absolute increases in LDD and spread rates are higher for light-seeded plants for which wind is often an important dispersal vector. While these predicted increases are not sufficient to compensate forecasted range losses and environmental changes can alter plant spread in various ways, our results generally suggest that warming can promote wind-driven movements of plant genotypes and populations in boreal forests. 相似文献
12.
13.
The hypothesis that El Niño events influence the settlement patterns of the California moray Gymnothorax mordax is tested. The pelagic larval duration (PLD) of larval G. mordax is unknown, but studies on leptocephalus of related species suggest that larvae are long‐lived, up to 2 years. Gymnothorax mordax, an elusive predatory species and the only muraenid off the coast of California, is considered abundant in the waters around Catalina Island. Thirty‐three individuals were collected from Two Harbors, Catalina Island, and otoliths were taken to provide estimates of their age. Settlement year for each individual was backcalculated using estimated age from otolith measurements. These ages were then cross referenced with the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) developed by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to correlate estimated age of settlement with known El Niño years. Of the 33 individuals collected, 30 settled at Catalina Island during El Niño years. The oldest individual in the data‐set was 22 years old, placing G. mordax as one of the longer‐lived predatory fishes in the system. The present study represents the first account of wild G. mordax ages and suggests that El Niño events have an important role in driving the settlement of recruits towards the northern edge of their range. 相似文献
14.
The pelagic larval duration ( D PL ) for 10 temperate cryptobenthic species belonging to three families: Gobiidae, Gobiesocidae and Blenniidae was investigated. Overall, the Gobiesocidae presented short D PL s varying between 11 and 18 days, the Gobiidae's D PL ranged between 14 and 39 days, and Parablennius pilicornis (Blenniidae) had an average of 33 days (range 31–37 days). Two subtypes of settlement marks were found among individuals of the same species. 相似文献
15.
The daily ages of 312 of 879 newly recruited postlarvae of Sicyopterus japonicus, collected from the Shuang‐Chi Estuary in north‐eastern Taiwan during February 1996 to April 1997, were determined from daily growth increments in their otoliths. Pelagic larval duration, growth rate of the marine larval stage and hatching dates were estimated, and recruitment timing was linked to environmental factors. The mean ±s .d . total length (LT) and daily ages of S. japonicus at recruitment to the estuary were estimated to be 33·95 ± 1·31 mm (range 30·7 to 38·1, n = 317) and 163·72 ± 12·79 days (range 130 to 198, n = 312), respectively. The recruitment of S. japonicus larvae is size dependent not age dependent because LT of the larvae is independent of age at recruitment. Periodic analysis indicated that LT and growth rate of the larvae were inversely correlated with the age at recruitment, which means that the fast‐growing individuals recruited earlier. The growth rate of S. japonicus in the marine larval stage was synchronous with marine productivity in this subtropical area, i.e. the spring cohort recruited in the autumn had a higher growth rate than the autumn cohort recruited the following spring. The main spawning season of S. japonicus as backcalculated from otolith daily increments was in autumn, a relatively low productivity period compared with spring. During this season, there were fewer competitors and predators than in the more productive spring. The recruitment of 95% of postlarva coincided with low salinity (14) and low water temperature (23° C) in the river mouth that provided a buffer area for the adaptation of the larvae for upstream migration. This unique reproduction strategy and prolonged larval duration facilitated the widespread distribution of the fish along the coasts of East Asia. 相似文献
16.
There are a variety of proposed evolutionary and ecological explanations for why some species have more extensive geographical ranges than others. One of the most common explanations is variation in species' dispersal ability. However, the purported relationship between dispersal distance and range size has been subjected to few theoretical investigations, and empirical tests reach conflicting conclusions. We attempt to reconcile the equivocal results of previous studies by reviewing and synthesizing quantitative dispersal data, examining the relationship between average dispersal ability and range size for different spatial scales, regions and taxonomic groups. We use extensive data from marine taxa whose average dispersal varies by seven orders of magnitude. Our results suggest dispersal is not a general determinant of range size, but can play an important role in some circumstances. We also review the mechanistic theories proposed to explain a positive relationship between range size and dispersal and explore their underlying rationales and supporting or refuting evidence. Despite numerous studies assuming a priori that dispersal influences range size, this is the first comprehensive conceptual evaluation of these ideas. Overall, our results indicate that although dispersal can be an important process moderating species' distributions, increased attention should be paid to other processes responsible for range size variation. 相似文献
17.
Aim The development of accurate models predicting species range shifts in response to climate change requires studies on the population biology of species whose distributional limits are in the process of shifting. We examine the population biology of an example system using the recent northward range expansion of the marine neogastropod Kelletia kelletii (Forbes, 1852). Location This is a marine coastal shelf neogastropod species whose range extends from Isla Asuncion (Baja California, Mexico) to Monterey (CA, USA). Research sites spanned the extent of the range. Methods We examine abundance distributions and size frequency distributions of K. kelletii for evidence of factors determining historic and contemporary distributional patterns. Population studies were supplemented by historic and contemporary hydrographic data, including seawater temperature data from California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI ) and National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), and seawater circulation data. Results The structure of recently established populations varied dramatically from that of historic populations. Markedly low densities and irregular size frequency distributions characterized recently established populations and suggested only occasionally successful recruitment. The point of transition between historic and recently established populations also corresponded to the location of a gradient in seawater temperature and the confluence of two major oceanic currents. The accumulated data suggest that temperature and/or barriers to dispersal could have set both contemporary patterns in population structure as well as the former northern range limit. Main conclusions Early life stages play a critical role in determining distributional patterns of K. kelletii. Dispersal barriers and temperature limitation are two plausible mechanisms that could determine both contemporary and historic distributional patterns. Future studies on this species should attempt to tease apart the relative importance of these factors in maintaining the populations at the northern edge of the range. 相似文献
18.
MARKUS LINDHOLM FRODE STORDAL S. JANNICKE MOE DAG O. HESSEN PER AASS 《Freshwater Biology》2012,57(12):2591-2601
1. Species responses to global warming are predicted to be manifest as poleward and upward extension of species ranges, whereas cold‐adapted species experience range retractions. We report on recent range retraction of a freshwater crustacean, the Arctic fairy shrimp Branchinecta paludosa (Branchiopoda, Anostraca) from alpine ponds of southern Norway, a southernmost extension of its otherwise arctic range. 2. The species was mapped during two separate surveys, in 1970 and 2011. In 1970, it occurred in numerous ponds from the tree line at 900 m altitude to high alpine sites at 1500 m. Re‐sampling of the same ponds 41 years later revealed extinction of populations from ponds along the lowest 200 m of its altitudinal range. 3. Reconstruction of summer temperatures for the periods 1965–70 and 2005–10 revealed a thermal increase for the period, corresponding to a c. 200‐m upward shift of the local isotherms. More specifically, the number of warm summer days had doubled in the lowest 200 m of the region, which might be particularly detrimental for the species. 4. The extinctions at lower altitudes were not compensated for by corresponding upward colonisations. The range retraction of B. paludosa is possibly associated with oxygen stress and hypoxia, induced by increased water temperatures. 相似文献
19.
Simon J. van Gennip Ekaterina E. Popova Andrew Yool Gretta T. Pecl Alistair J. Hobday Cascade J. B. Sorte 《Global Change Biology》2017,23(7):2602-2617
Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO2. However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high‐resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The ¼ degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5‐class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present‐day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification. 相似文献
20.
Ridouan Bani Justin Marleau Marie-Josée Fortin Rémi M. Daigle Frédéric Guichard 《Oikos》2021,130(6):989-1000
Climate change is having multiple impacts on marine species characterized by sedentary adult and pelagic larval phases, from increasing adult mortality to changes in larval duration and ocean currents. Recent studies have shown impacts of climate change on species persistence through direct effects on individual survival and development, but few have considered the indirect effects mediated by ocean currents and species traits such as pelagic larval duration. We used a density-dependent and stochastic metapopulation model to predict how changes in adult mortality and dynamic connectivity can affect marine metapopulation stability. We analyzed our model with connectivity data simulated from a biophysical ocean model of the northeast Pacific coast forced under current (1998–2007) and future (2068–2077) climate scenarios in combination with scenarios of increasing adult mortality and decreasing larval duration. Our results predict that changes of ocean currents and larval duration mediated by climate change interact in complex and opposing directions to shape local mortality and metapopulation connectivity with synergistic effects on regional metapopulation stability: while species with short larval duration are most sensitive to temperature-driven reduction in larval duration, the response of species with longer larval duration are mostly mediated by changes in both the mean and variance of larval connectivity driven by ocean currents. Our results emphasize the importance of considering the spatiotemporal structure of connectivity in order to predict how the multiple effects of climate change will impact marine populations. 相似文献