Temporal–spatial distribution of an island‐based offshore population of common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the equatorial Atlantic

A little‐studied common bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) population inhabits the offshore waters surrounding Saint Paul's Rocks, a Brazilian marine protected area in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean. Five field expeditions (May 2011–May 2013) were conducted to characterize the habitat use, population size, and site fidelity of this population. Three different survey methods were employed: line‐transect surveys, land‐based surveys, and photo‐identification surveys. A population size of 23 individuals (19–28, CI 95%), which were present on most sampling days (>90% of surveys), was estimated. The maximum resighting interval of photo‐identified animals was 9 yr and 3 mo for five distinct individuals, based on data from nonsystematic efforts that have been ongoing since 2004. The dolphins exhibited strong site fidelity, as the minimum convex polygon (MCP, 95%) method revealed that they restricted their movements to a 0.5 km² area across seasons and a 0.99 km² area across years (95% kernel). The dolphins preferred shallow waters close to the archipelago (<1.2 km from the islands), especially on the eastern and southeastern sides, where oceanographic models have revealed persistent upwelling that may result from underwater currents and where food may be more predictably available.     

Seasonal abundance and adult survival of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in a community that cooperatively forages with fishermen in southern Brazil

A subgroup of a population of Tursiops truncatus in southern Brazil is known for a cooperative behavior with artisanal fishermen whereby the dolphins shoal fish towards net‐casting fishermen. Combining photo‐identification data collected between September 2007 and 2009 with mark‐recapture and Pollock's robust design models, we assessed abundance within seasons and survival and temporary emigration rates of dolphins between seasons. We also reanalyzed a previous data set collected during 1989–1991, and Cormack‐Jolly‐Seber models were applied to estimate survival rates for each of the study periods. The abundance of marked “cooperative” dolphins varied between seasons from 18 (CI: 17–24) to 21 (CI: 20–24). The total abundance varied from 59 in the winter of 2008 (CI: 49–72) to 50 in the autumn of 2009 (CI: 40–62). The annual adult survival was estimated to be 0.917 (CI: 0.876–0.961), close to that estimated from data collected in the 1990s (0.941; CI: 0.888–0.998). The emigration probability was low (0.031; CI: 0.011–0.084) and different capture probabilities between the “cooperative” and “noncooperative” dolphins indicated a degree of behavioral segregation. The precision of our estimates is likely to provide sufficient power to detect population change, but we recommend a precautionary management approach to protect this vulnerable dolphin community and its unique cooperative feeding tradition.     

Striped dolphins and short‐beaked common dolphins in the Gulf of Corinth,Greece: Abundance estimates from dorsal fin photographs

Capture‐recapture methods relying on dorsal fin natural markings have never been applied successfully to striped dolphins, Stenella coeruleoalba, and were rarely used to assess abundance of short‐beaked common dolphins, Delphinus delphis. We used digital photo‐identification to obtain abundance estimates of striped and common dolphins living in mixed groups in the Gulf of Corinth, Greece. The proportion of either species was calculated based on the relative number of photographs of adult animals showing relevant portions of their body during conspicuous surfacings. Striped dolphins and common dolphins averaged 95.0% and 3.2% of all individuals, respectively. Animals showing intermediate pigmentation accounted for another 1.8%. Striped dolphin numbers were relatively high, with a point estimate of 835 animals (95% CI = 631–1,106). Common dolphins numbers were low (point estimate 28 animals; 95% CI = 11–73) and individuals were scattered within striped dolphin groups, indicating that this common dolphin population may be nonviable. Within a semiclosed Gulf exposed to considerable anthropogenic impact, the future of both dolphin species is of concern due to their suspected geographic isolation and restricted extent of occurrence. Information provided here can be used to inform timely conservation efforts.     

Abundance and site fidelity of Indo‐Pacific Humpback dolphins in the Great Sandy Strait,Queensland, Australia

This study examined the population of Indo‐Pacific humpback dolphins, Sousa chinensis, inhabiting the Great Sandy Strait Marine Park, Queensland, Australia. A total of 106 dolphins were identified during 228 boat‐based surveys, completed between April 2004 and April 2007. Based on the distribution of resighted individuals and the pattern of associations, it was established that this population consists of two largely geographically distinct communities, referred to as the Northern Community (NC) and the Southern Community (SC). The only recorded interaction between the two groups was a single pod composed of one member of the NC and 11 dolphins from the SC. Abundance was estimated for the entire population and by geographical area using open population models. Estimates for the Great Sandy Strait indicate that about 150 dolphins (N_GSS= 148.4, SE = 8.3, 95% CI: 132.5–165.2) used this area during the study. The NC and SC total population sizes was estimated to be 76 (N_NGSS= 75.80, SE = 3.88, 95% CI = 71–86) and 75 (N_SGSS= 74.98, SE = 4.43, 95% CI: 66–83), respectively. Analysis of residence patterns indicates that a majority of the identified dolphins are long‐term residents.     

Likely future extirpation of another Asian river dolphin: The critically endangered population of the Irrawaddy dolphin in the Mekong River is small and declining

The population of Irrawaddy dolphins that occupies the Mekong River in southern Lao People's Democratic Republic and Cambodia is classified as Critically Endangered by the IUCN. Based on capture‐recapture of photo‐identified individuals, we estimated that the total population numbered 93 ±  SE 3.90 individuals (95% CI 86–101), as of April 2007. The combined photo‐identification and carcass recovery program undertaken from 2001 to 2007 established that the Irrawaddy dolphin population inhabiting the Mekong River has reached a critical point with regards to its continued survival, where immediate research and management actions are required to greatly reduce adult mortality, and establish the cause of newborn mortality. In addition, community consultation is required to initiate, and evaluate, urgently required conservation measures. An ongoing well‐designed combined program of abundance estimation (i.e., photo‐identification) and carcass recovery is required to monitor total population size and mortality rates, to inform and evaluate management initiatives. The conclusions of this paper are likely generic to river dolphin populations, particularly where photo‐identification is possible.     

Decline in local abundance of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the Bay of Islands,New Zealand

Regional populations of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) around New Zealand are genetically isolated from each other and the species was recently classified as nationally endangered based on relatively small population sizes and reports of high calf mortality. Here, we estimate the abundance and trends in one of these regional populations, the Bay of Islands, using a photo‐identification database collected from 1997 to 1999 and from 2003 to 2006, containing a total of 3,841 records of 317 individual dolphins. Estimates of abundance obtained with the robust design fluctuated widely but showed a significant decline in the number of dolphins present in the bay over time (7.5% annual rate of decline). Temporary emigration was random and fluctuated considerably (γ  =  0.18, SE = 0.07 to γ  =  0.84, SE = 0.06). Apparent survival was estimated at 0.928 (CI = 0.911–0.942). Seasonal estimates (26 seasons) obtained in POPAN also showed a significant decline in abundance (5.8% annual rate of decline). Despite the decline observed in local abundance, dolphins continue to be found regularly in the Bay of Islands, suggesting that fewer dolphins use the bay on regular basis. Consequently, it seems that a change in habitat use, mortality and possibly low recruitment could underlie the apparent local decline.     

Mark‐recapture abundance estimate of tucuxi dolphins (Sotalia fluviatilis) in a lake system of the Central Amazon

The tucuxi (Sotalia fluviatilis) is a small dolphin endemic to the Amazon River basin. Because the abundance and trends are currently unknown for the species, this study aimed to estimate its abundance in a lake system of the Central Amazon. A total of 10 two‐day sampling periods were carried out from March to June of 2013 throughout a 13.5 km² area in the Mamirauá Reserve. In the 104 encounters with the species, a minimum number of 389 dolphins were sighted and photographed, which allowed the positive identification of 49 individuals. Mark‐recapture models were used to estimate an abundance of 119 individuals (95% CI = 105–150) (corrected for the proportion of identifiable individuals). This is the first estimation of S. fluviatilis abundance using mark‐recapture analyses and, together with the photo‐id catalog made available, provides a useful reference for future studies regarding tucuxi dolphins.     

The influence of cooperative foraging with fishermen on the dynamics of a bottlenose dolphin population

Recent years have seen an increasing interest in individual behavioral variation. However, the implications of such variation for population dynamics are often unknown. We studied the dynamics of a bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus gephyreus) population from southern Brazil, where some individuals forage cooperatively with artisanal fishermen. We fitted mark‐recapture models to 10 yr of photo‐identification data to investigate the influence of this foraging specialization on dolphins’ population parameters, controlling for sex and ranging behavior. We estimated adult survival to be high (0.949 ± 0.015 SE), weakly influenced by home range size, sex or the frequency of interaction with fishermen. The slightly higher survival probability for individuals with smaller home ranges could stem from the benefits of reduced spatial requirements implied by the specialized foraging. Foraging also influenced the probability of resighting individuals, and there was no temporary or permanent emigration. Abundance fluctuated slightly over the years from 54 (95% CI = 49–59) to 60 (95% CI = 52–69) individuals, with no evident population trend. Despite such apparent population stability, we confirm this population remains small and geographically isolated which may threaten its viability and the viability of its unusual, localized foraging specialization. Our study also illustrates how accounting for individual variation can portray animal population dynamics more realistically.     

Assessing the abundance of Bristol Bay belugas with genetic mark‐recapture methods

The Bristol Bay stock of beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) is genetically distinct and resides in Bristol Bay year‐round. We estimated the abundance of this population using genetic mark‐recapture, whereby genetic markers from skin biopsies, collected between 2002 and 2011, were used to identify individuals. We identified 516 individual belugas in two inner bays, 468 from Kvichak Bay and 48 from Nushagak Bay, and recaptured 75 belugas in separate years. Using a POPAN Jolly‐Seber model, abundance was estimated at 1,928 belugas (95% CI = 1,611–2,337), not including calves, which were not sampled. Most belugas were sampled in Kvichak Bay at a time when belugas are also known to occur in Nushagak Bay. The pattern of genetic recaptures and data from belugas with satellite transmitters suggested that belugas in the two bays regularly mix. Hence, the estimate of abundance likely applies to all belugas within Bristol Bay. Simulations suggested that POPAN estimates of abundance are robust to most forms of emigration, but that emigration causes negative bias in both capture and survival probabilities. Because it is likely that some belugas do not enter the sampling area during sampling, our estimate of abundance is best considered a minimum population size.     

Mark‐recapture modeling accounting for state uncertainty provides concurrent estimates of survival and fecundity in a protected harbor seal population

Harbor seal breeding behavior and habitats constrain opportunities for individual‐based studies, and no current estimates of both survival and fecundity exist for any of the populations studied worldwide. As a result, the drivers underlying the variable trends in abundance exhibited by harbor seal populations around the world remain uncertain. We developed an individual‐based study of harbor seals in northeast Scotland, whereby data were collected during daily photo‐identification surveys throughout the pupping seasons between 2006 and 2011. However, a consequence of observing seals remotely meant that information on sex, maturity‐stage, or breeding status was not always available. To provide unbiased estimates of survival rates we conditioned initial release of individuals on the first time sex was known to estimate sex‐specific survival rates, while a robust design multistate model accounting for uncertainty in breeding status was used to estimate reproductive rate of multiparous and ≥3‐yr‐old females. Survival rates were estimated at 0.95 (95% CI = 0.91–0.97) for females and 0.92 (0.83–0.96) for males, while reproductive rate was estimated at 0.89 (0.75–0.95) for multiparous and 0.69 (0.64–0.74) for ≥3‐yr‐old females. Stage‐based population modeling indicated that this population should be recovering, even under the current shooting quotas implemented by the recent management plan.     

Survival and abundance of short‐finned pilot whales in the archipelago of Madeira,NE Atlantic

Estimates of population parameters for the short‐finned pilot whale, Globicephala macrorhynchus, are scarce in literature, contributing to an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) status of Data Deficient. In this study, photo‐identification data collected over 7 yr from Madeira were used to estimate for the first time survivorship, capture probability, and abundance in this species using mark‐recapture methodology. The Cormack‐Jolly‐Seber model estimated that the adult island‐associated (i.e., resident and regular visitor) whales had a constant survival rate of 0.960 (95% CI: 0.853–0.990) and an annual capture probability varying between 0.372 (CI: 0.178–0.619) and 0.843 (CI: 0.619–0.947). A parameterization of the Jolly‐Seber model estimated that 140 island‐associated whales (CI: 131–151) used the area throughout the course of the study. Based on a closed population model, the most precise (lower CV) annual estimate of the total number of pilot whales using the southern and eastern waters of Madeira (~900 km²) in a 3 mo period covering summer/autumn was 334 animals (CI: 260–437). No trend was observed. Despite including biases, the approach used in this study provided plausible estimates of population parameters, which can contribute to the regional conservation strategies.     

Assessing population parameters and trends of Guiana dolphins (Sotalia guianensis): An eight‐year mark‐recapture study

This study represents the first attempt to study the population dynamics of Guiana dolphins (Sotalia guianensis), by evaluating a set of demographic parameters. The population of the Caravelas River estuary, eastern Brazil, was systematically monitored through a long‐term mark‐recapture experiment (2002–2009). Abundance estimates revealed a small population (57–124 dolphins), comprised of resident dolphins and individuals that temporarily leave or pass through the study area. Temporary emigration from the estuary to adjacencies (γ″= 0.33 ± 0.07 SE) and return rate (1 ?γ′= 0 .67) were moderate and constant, indicating that some dolphins use larger areas. Survival rate (?= 0.88 ± 0.07 SE) and abundance were constant throughout the study period. Power analysis showed that the current monitoring effort has high probability of detecting abrupt population declines (1 ?β= 0.9). Although the monitoring is not yet sensitive to subtle population trends, sufficient time to identify them is feasible (additional 3 yr). Despite such apparent stability, this population, as many others, inhabits waters exposed to multiple human‐related threats. Open and closed population modeling applied to photo‐identification data provide a robust baseline for estimating several demographic parameters and can be applied to other populations to allow further comparisons. Such synergistic efforts will allow a reliable definition of conservation status of this species.     

High calf mortality in bottlenose dolphins in the Bay of Islands,New Zealand–a local unit in decline

Bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the Bay of Islands, New Zealand, have been studied for almost two decades. Since 2003, fewer than 150 dolphins visited the bay during each season and the local unit has declined 7.5% annually from 1997 to 2006. The causes of decline are unclear but probably include mortality and emigration. Here, we used a long‐term database to estimate reproductive parameters of female bottlenose dolphins including recruitment rates. A total of 704 surveys were conducted in which 5,577 sightings of 408 individually identified dolphins were collected; of these 53 individuals were identified as reproductive females. The calving rate increased between periods (1997–1999 = 0.13, CL = 0.07–0.21; 2003–2005 = 0.25, CL = 0.16–0.35 calves/reproductive female/year). A 0.25 calving rate suggests that on average, a female gives birth only once every four years, which is consistent with the estimated calving interval (4.3 yr, SD = 1.45) but still is lower than values reported for other populations. Conversely, apparent mortality rates to age 1+ (range: 0.34–0.52) and 2+ (range: 0.15–0.59) were higher than values reported elsewhere. The high apparent calf mortality in conjunction with a decline in local abundance, highlight the vulnerability of bottlenose dolphins in the Bay of Islands. Long‐term studies are required to understand the causes of high calf mortality and the decline in local abundance. Meanwhile, management should focus on minimizing sources of anthropogenic disturbance and enforcing compliance with current legislation.     

Abundance estimation of gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) calves from shore‐based surveys undertaken near Ensenada,Baja California,Mexico, 2004–2006

Gray whale calf abundance was estimated from shore‐based surveys near Ensenada, Baja California, during their northbound migration. Over the course of 129 effort‐days (756.5 observation hours), 162 calves were counted, comprising 42, 41, and 79 calves in 2004, 2005, and 2006, respectively. To estimate the number of undetected calves during the observation periods in 2006, detection probabilities were estimated by simultaneous and independent counts using a Huggins model. The detection probabilities ranged from 0.655 to 0.997. The number of calves estimated during effort periods were divided by their estimated detection probabilities, while the total number of calves were estimated by fitting a generalized additive model (GAM) to the passage rate (whales/h) and effort (time) data. The final gray whale calf abundance estimates were 451 (95% CI = 430, 513), 253 (95% CI= 245, 308), and 442 (95% CI = 396, 510) calves for 2004, 2005, and 2006, respectively. The estimates were lower than those reported for Piedras Blancas, California, during the same years, with one possible reason being that an important number of cow/calf pairs migrate too far from shore (>10 km) to be detected from the observation site used in this research.     

Making use of multiple surveys: Estimating breeding probability using a multievent‐robust design capture–recapture model

Increased environmental stochasticity due to climate change will intensify temporal variance in the life‐history traits, and especially breeding probabilities, of long‐lived iteroparous species. These changes may decrease individual fitness and population viability and is therefore important to monitor. In wild animal populations with imperfect individual detection, breeding probabilities are best estimated using capture–recapture methods. However, in many vertebrate species (e.g., amphibians, turtles, seabirds), nonbreeders are unobservable because they are not tied to a territory or breeding location. Although unobservable states can be used to model temporary emigration of nonbreeders, there are disadvantages to having unobservable states in capture–recapture models. The best solution to deal with unobservable life‐history states is therefore to eliminate them altogether. Here, we achieve this objective by fitting novel multievent‐robust design models which utilize information obtained from multiple surveys conducted throughout the year. We use this approach to estimate annual breeding probabilities of capital breeding female elephant seals (Mirounga leonina). Conceptually, our approach parallels a multistate version of the Barker/robust design in that it combines robust design capture data collected during discrete breeding seasons with observations made at other times of the year. A substantial advantage of our approach is that the nonbreeder state became “observable” when multiple data sources were analyzed together. This allowed us to test for the existence of state‐dependent survival (with some support found for lower survival in breeders compared to nonbreeders), and to estimate annual breeding transitions to and from the nonbreeder state with greater precision (where current breeders tended to have higher future breeding probabilities than nonbreeders). We used program E‐SURGE (2.1.2) to fit the multievent‐robust design models, with uncertainty in breeding state assignment (breeder, nonbreeder) being incorporated via a hidden Markov process. This flexible modeling approach can easily be adapted to suit sampling designs from numerous species which may be encountered during and outside of discrete breeding seasons.     

Decline in abundance and apparent survival rates of fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence

Estimates of abundance and survivorship provide quantifiable measures to monitor populations and to define and understand their conservation status. This study investigated changes in abundance and survival rates of fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence in the context of anthropogenic pressures and changing environmental conditions. A long‐term data set, consisting of 35 years of photo‐identification surveys and comprising more than 5,000 identifications of 507 individuals, formed the basis of this mark–recapture study. Based on model selection using corrected Akaike Information Criterion, the most parsimonious Cormack–Jolly–Seber model included a linear temporal trend in noncalf apparent survival rates with a sharp decline in the last 5 years of the study and a median survival rate of 0.946 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.910–0.967). To account for capture heterogeneity due to divergent patterns of site fidelity, agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis was employed to categorize individuals based on their annual and survey site fidelity indices. However, the negative trend in survivorship remained and was corroborated by a significant decline in the estimated super‐population size from 335 (95% CI 321–348) individuals in 2004–2010 to 291 (95% CI 270–312) individuals in 2010–2016. Concurrently, a negative trend was estimated in recruitment to the population, supported by a sharp decrease in the number of observed calves. Ship strikes and changes in prey availability are potential drivers of the observed decline in fin whale abundance. The combination of clustering methods with mark–recapture represents a flexible way to investigate the effects of site fidelity on demographic variables and is broadly applicable to other individual‐based studies.     

Inferring causal factors for a declining population of bottlenose dolphins via temporal symmetry capture–recapture modeling

We applied temporal symmetry capture–recapture (TSCR) models to assess the strength of evidence for factors potentially responsible for population decline in bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Doubtful Sound, New Zealand from 1995 to 2008. Model selection was conducted to estimate recruitment and population growth rates. There were similar levels of support for three different models, each reflecting distinct trends in recruitment. Modeling yielded low overall estimates of recruitment (0.0249, 95% CI: 0.0174–0.0324) and population growth rate (0.9642, 95% CI: 0.9546–0.9737). The TSCR rate of population decline was consistent with an estimate derived from trends in abundance (lambda = 0.9632, 95% CI: 0.9599–0.9665). The TSCR model selection confirmed the influence of a decline in the survival of calves (<1 yr old) since 2002 for population trends. However, TSCR population growth rates did not exceed 1 in any year between 1995 and 2008, indicating the population was declining prior to 2002. A separate reduction in juvenile survival (1–3 yr old) prior to 2002 was identified as a likely contributing factor in the population decline. Thus, TSCR modeling indicated the potential cause of the population decline in Doubtful Sound: cumulative impacts on individuals <3 yr old resulting in a reduced recruitment.     

Integrating multiple data sources to assess the distribution and abundance of bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus in Scottish waters

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First demographic insights on historically harvested and poorly known male sperm whale populations off the Crozet and Kerguelen Islands (Southern Ocean)

Age and sex dependent spatial segregation has resulted in limited knowledge of the ecology and demography of sperm whale adult males feeding seasonally in high latitudes. This study focused on adult males interacting with the Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) fishery operating off the Kerguelen and Crozet Archipelagos. Demographic parameters were estimated using a 10‐yr‐long photo‐identification data set paired with multistate closed robust design capture‐mark‐recapture models. The examination of a set of 29,078 photographs taken from fishing vessels during sperm whale depredation events resulted in identification of 295 individuals with nine visiting both study areas. Dispersal between both study regions was estimated to be 1% per year. The mean annual number of interacting sperm whales was estimated to n = 82 (95% CI 58–141) in Crozet and n = 106 (95% CI 76–174) in Kerguelen. Transient proportions were 13% in Crozet and 26% in Kerguelen. Corrected for transience, apparent survival estimates were 0.953 (95% CI 0.890–0.993) in Crozet, and 0.911 (95% CI 0.804–0.986) in Kerguelen. These survival and population size estimates are the first for depredating adult males in high latitudes, and can be used in evaluating the current conservation status of this historically harvested stock and to investigate depredation trends in 35 both Crozet and Kerguelen Islands.     

Recovery rates of bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) carcasses estimated from stranding and survival rate data

Recovery of cetacean carcasses provides data on levels of human‐caused mortality, but represents only a minimum count of impacts. Counts of stranded carcasses are negatively biased by factors that include at‐sea scavenging, sinking, drift away from land, stranding in locations where detection is unlikely, and natural removal from beaches due to wave and tidal action prior to detection. We estimate the fraction of carcasses recovered for a population of coastal bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus), using abundance and survival rate data to estimate annual deaths in the population. Observed stranding numbers are compared to expected deaths to estimate the fraction of carcasses recovered. For the California coastal population of bottlenose dolphins, we estimate the fraction of carcasses recovered to be 0.25 (95% CI = 0.20–0.33). During a 12 yr period, 327 animals (95% CI = 253–413) were expected to have died and been available for recovery, but only 83 carcasses attributed to this population were documented. Given the coastal habits of California coastal bottlenose dolphins, it is likely that carcass recovery rates of this population greatly exceed recovery rates of more pelagic dolphin species in the region.