Pre-Emergency-Department Care-Seeking Patterns Are Associated with the Severity of Presenting Condition for Emergency Department Visit and Subsequent Adverse Events: A Timeframe Episode Analysis

Background

Many patients treated in Emergency Department (ED) visits can be treated at primary or urgent care sectors, despite the fact that a number of ED visitors seek other forms of care prior to an ED visit. However, little is known regarding how the pre-ED activity episodes affect ED visits.

Objectives

We investigated whether care-seeking patterns involve the use of health care services of various types prior to ED visits and examined the associations of these patterns with the severity of the presenting condition for the ED visit (EDVS) and subsequent events.

Methods

This retrospective observational study used administrative data on beneficiaries of the universal health care insurance program in Taiwan. The service type, treatment capacity, and relative diagnosis were used to classify pre-ED visits into 8 care types. Frequent pattern analysis was used to identify sequential care-seeking patterns and to classify 667,183 eligible pre-ED episodes into patterns. Generalized linear models were developed using generalized estimating equations to examine the associations of these patterns with EDVS and subsequent events.

Results

The results revealed 17 care-seeking patterns. The EDVS and likelihood of subsequent events significantly differed among patterns. The ED severity index of patterns differ from patterns seeking directly ED care (coefficients ranged from -0.05 to 0.13), and the odds-ratios for the likelihood of subsequent ED visits and hospitalization ranged from 1.18 to 1.86 and 1.16 to 2.84, respectively.

Conclusions

The pre-ED care-seeking patterns differ in severity of presenting condition and subsequent events that may represent different causes of ED visit. Future health policy maker may adopt different intervention strategies for targeted population to reduce unnecessary ED visit effectively.     

Effects of Source- versus Household Contamination of Tubewell Water on Child Diarrhea in Rural Bangladesh: A Randomized Controlled Trial

Background

Shallow tubewells are the primary drinking water source for most rural Bangladeshis. Fecal contamination has been detected in tubewells, at low concentrations at the source and at higher levels at the point of use. We conducted a randomized controlled trial to assess whether improving the microbiological quality of tubewell drinking water by household water treatment and safe storage would reduce diarrhea in children <2 years in rural Bangladesh.

Methods

We randomly assigned 1800 households with a child aged 6-18 months (index child) into one of three arms: chlorine plus safe storage, safe storage and control. We followed households with monthly visits for one year to promote the interventions, track their uptake, test participants’ source and stored water for fecal contamination, and record caregiver-reported child diarrhea prevalence (primary outcome). To assess reporting bias, we also collected data on health outcomes that are not expected to be impacted by our interventions.

Findings

Both interventions had high uptake. Safe storage, alone or combined with chlorination, reduced heavy contamination of stored water. Compared to controls, diarrhea in index children was reduced by 36% in the chlorine plus safe storage arm (prevalence ratio, PR = 0.64, 0.55-0.73) and 31% in the safe storage arm (PR = 0.69, 0.60-0.80), with no difference between the two intervention arms. One limitation of the study was the non-blinded design with self-reported outcomes. However, the prevalence of health outcomes not expected to be impacted by water interventions did not differ between study arms, suggesting minimal reporting bias.

Conclusions

Safe storage significantly improved drinking water quality at the point of use and reduced child diarrhea in rural Bangladesh. There was no added benefit from combining safe storage with chlorination. Efforts should be undertaken to implement and evaluate long-term efforts for safe water storage in Bangladesh.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01350063     

Epidemiological Trends of Traumatic Brain Injury Identified in the Emergency Department in a Publicly-Insured Population, 2002-2010

Objectives

To examine epidemiological trends of Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) treated in the Emergency Department (ED), identify demographic groups at risk of TBI, and determine the factors associated with hospitalization following an ED visit for TBI.

Methods

A province-wide database was used to identify all ED visits for TBI in Ontario, Canada between April 2002 and March 2010. Trends were analyzed using linear regression, and predictors of hospital admission were evaluated using logistic regression.

Results

There were 986,194 ED visits for TBI over the eight-year study period, resulting in 49,290 hospitalizations and 1,072 deaths. The age- and sex-adjusted rate of TBI decreased by 3%, from 1,013.9 per 100,000 (95% CI 1,008.3–1,010.6) to 979.1 per 100,000 (95% CI 973.7–984.4; p = 0.11). We found trends towards increasing age, comorbidity level, length of stay, and ambulatory transport use. Children and young adults (ages 5–24) sustained peak rates of motor vehicle crash (MVC) and bicyclist-related TBI, but also experienced the greatest decline in these rates (p = 0.003 and p = 0.005). In contrast, peak rates of fall-related TBI occurred among the youngest (ages 0–4) and oldest (ages 85+) segments of the population, but rates remained stable over time (p = 0.52 and 0.54). The 5–24 age group also sustained the highest rates of sports-related TBI but rates remained stable (p = 0.80). On multivariate analysis, the odds of hospital admission decreased by 1% for each year over the study period (OR = 0.991, 95% CI = 0.987–0.995). Increasing age and comorbidity, male sex, and ambulatory transport were significant predictors of hospital admission.

Conclusions

ED visits for TBI are involving older populations with increasingly complex comorbidities. While TBI rates are either stable or declining among vulnerable groups such as young drivers, youth athletes, and the elderly, these populations remain key targets for focused injury prevention and surveillance. Clinicians in the ED setting should be cognizant of factors associated with hospitalization following TBI.

Level of Evidence

III.

Study Design

Cross-sectional.     

Case Fatality Rates Based on Population Estimates of Influenza-Like Illness Due to Novel H1N1 Influenza: New York City,May–June 2009

Background

The public health response to pandemic influenza is contingent on the pandemic strain''s severity. In late April 2009, a potentially pandemic novel H1N1 influenza strain (nH1N1) was recognized. New York City (NYC) experienced an intensive initial outbreak that peaked in late May, providing the need and opportunity to rapidly quantify the severity of nH1N1.

Methods and Findings

Telephone surveys using rapid polling methods of approximately 1,000 households each were conducted May 20–27 and June 15–19, 2009. Respondents were asked about the occurrence of influenza-like illness (ILI, fever with either cough or sore throat) for each household member from May 1–27 (survey 1) or the preceding 30 days (survey 2). For the overlap period, prevalence data were combined by weighting the survey-specific contribution based on a Serfling model using data from the NYC syndromic surveillance system. Total and age-specific prevalence of ILI attributed to nH1N1 were estimated using two approaches to adjust for background ILI: discounting by ILI prevalence in less affected NYC boroughs and by ILI measured in syndromic surveillance data from 2004–2008. Deaths, hospitalizations and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions were determined from enhanced surveillance including nH1N1-specific testing. Combined ILI prevalence for the 50-day period was 15.8% (95% CI:13.2%–19.0%). The two methods of adjustment yielded point estimates of nH1N1-associated ILI of 7.8% and 12.2%. Overall case-fatality (CFR) estimates ranged from 0.054–0.086 per 1000 persons with nH1N1-associated ILI and were highest for persons ≥65 years (0.094–0.147 per 1000) and lowest for those 0–17 (0.008–0.012). Hospitalization rates ranged from 0.84–1.34 and ICU admission rates from 0.21–0.34 per 1000, with little variation in either by age-group.

Conclusions

ILI prevalence can be quickly estimated using rapid telephone surveys, using syndromic surveillance data to determine expected “background” ILI proportion. Risk of severe illness due to nH1N1 was similar to seasonal influenza, enabling NYC to emphasize preventing severe morbidity rather than employing aggressive community mitigation measures.     

Evaluation of Outbreak Detection Performance Using Multi-Stream Syndromic Surveillance for Influenza-Like Illness in Rural Hubei Province,China: A Temporal Simulation Model Based on Healthcare-Seeking Behaviors

Background

Syndromic surveillance promotes the early detection of diseases outbreaks. Although syndromic surveillance has increased in developing countries, performance on outbreak detection, particularly in cases of multi-stream surveillance, has scarcely been evaluated in rural areas.

Objective

This study introduces a temporal simulation model based on healthcare-seeking behaviors to evaluate the performance of multi-stream syndromic surveillance for influenza-like illness.

Methods

Data were obtained in six towns of rural Hubei Province, China, from April 2012 to June 2013. A Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model generated 27 scenarios of simulated influenza A (H1N1) outbreaks, which were converted into corresponding simulated syndromic datasets through the healthcare-behaviors model. We then superimposed converted syndromic datasets onto the baselines obtained to create the testing datasets. Outbreak performance of single-stream surveillance of clinic visit, frequency of over the counter drug purchases, school absenteeism, and multi-stream surveillance of their combinations were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves and activity monitoring operation curves.

Results

In the six towns examined, clinic visit surveillance and school absenteeism surveillance exhibited superior performances of outbreak detection than over the counter drug purchase frequency surveillance; the performance of multi-stream surveillance was preferable to signal-stream surveillance, particularly at low specificity (Sp <90%).

Conclusions

The temporal simulation model based on healthcare-seeking behaviors offers an accessible method for evaluating the performance of multi-stream surveillance.     

Reducing Frequent Visits to the Emergency Department: A Systematic Review of Interventions

Objective

The objective of this study was to establish the effectiveness of interventions to reduce frequent emergency department (ED) use among a general adult high ED-use population.

Methods

Systematic review of the literature from 1950-January 2015. Studies were included if they: had a control group (controlled trials or comparative cohort studies), were set in an ED or acute care facility, and examined the impact of an intervention to reduce frequent ED use in a general adult population. Studies reporting non-original data or focused on a specific patient population were excluded. Study design, patient population, intervention, the frequency of ED visits, and costs of frequent ED use and/or interventions were extracted and narratively synthesized.

Results

Among 17 included articles, three intervention categories were identified: case management (n = 12), individualized care plans (n = 3), and information sharing (n = 2). Ten studies examining case management reported reductions in mean (-0.66 to -37) or median (-0.1 to -20) number of ED visits after 12-months; one study reported an increase in mean ED visits (+2.79); and one reported no change. Of these, 6 studies also reported reduced hospital costs. Only 1 study evaluating individualized care plans examined ED utilization and found no change in median ED visits post-intervention. Costs following individualized care plans were also only evaluated in 1 study, which reported savings in hospital costs of $742/patient. Evidence was mixed regarding information sharing: 1 study reported no change in mean ED visits and did not examine costs; whereas the other reported a decrease in mean ED visits (-16.9) and ED cost savings of $15,513/patient.

Conclusions

The impact of all three frequent-user interventions was modest. Case management had the most rigorous evidence base, yielded moderate cost savings, but with variable reductions in ED use. Future studies evaluating non-traditional interventions, tailoring to patient subgroups or socio-cultural contexts, are warranted.     

Linking Human Health and Livestock Health: A “One-Health” Platform for Integrated Analysis of Human Health,Livestock Health,and Economic Welfare in Livestock Dependent Communities

Background

For most rural households in sub-Saharan Africa, healthy livestock play a key role in averting the burden associated with zoonotic diseases, and in meeting household nutritional and socio-economic needs. However, there is limited understanding of the complex nutritional, socio-economic, and zoonotic pathways that link livestock health to human health and welfare. Here we describe a platform for integrated human health, animal health and economic welfare analysis designed to address this challenge. We provide baseline epidemiological data on disease syndromes in humans and the animals they keep, and provide examples of relationships between human health, animal health and household socio-economic status.

Method

We designed a study to obtain syndromic disease data in animals along with economic and behavioral information for 1500 rural households in Western Kenya already participating in a human syndromic disease surveillance study. Data collection started in February 2013, and each household is visited bi-weekly and data on four human syndromes (fever, jaundice, diarrhea and respiratory illness) and nine animal syndromes (death, respiratory, reproductive, musculoskeletal, nervous, urogenital, digestive, udder disorders, and skin disorders in cattle, sheep, goats and chickens) are collected. Additionally, data from a comprehensive socio-economic survey is collected every 3 months in each of the study households.

Findings

Data from the first year of study showed 93% of the households owned at least one form of livestock (55%, 19%, 41% and 88% own cattle, sheep, goats and chickens respectively). Digestive disorders, mainly diarrhea episodes, were the most common syndromes observed in cattle, goats and sheep, accounting for 56% of all livestock syndromes, followed by respiratory illnesses (18%). In humans, respiratory illnesses accounted for 54% of all illnesses reported, followed by acute febrile illnesses (40%) and diarrhea illnesses (5%). While controlling for household size, the incidence of human illness increased 1.31-fold for every 10 cases of animal illness or death observed (95% CI 1.16–1.49). Access and utilization of animal source foods such as milk and eggs were positively associated with the number of cattle and chickens owned by the household. Additionally, health care seeking was correlated with household incomes and wealth, which were in turn correlated with livestock herd size.

Conclusion

This study platform provides a unique longitudinal dataset that allows for the determination and quantification of linkages between human and animal health, including the impact of healthy animals on human disease averted, malnutrition, household educational attainment, and income levels.     

Impact of Influenza on Outpatient Visits,Hospitalizations, and Deaths by Using a Time Series Poisson Generalized Additive Model

Background

The disease burden associated with influenza in developing tropical and subtropical countries is poorly understood owing to the lack of a comprehensive disease surveillance system and information-exchange mechanisms. The impact of influenza on outpatient visits, hospital admissions, and deaths has not been fully demonstrated to date in south China.

Methods

A time series Poisson generalized additive model was used to quantitatively assess influenza-like illness (ILI) and influenza disease burden by using influenza surveillance data in Zhuhai City from 2007 to 2009, combined with the outpatient, inpatient, and respiratory disease mortality data of the same period.

Results

The influenza activity in Zhuhai City demonstrated a typical subtropical seasonal pattern; however, each influenza virus subtype showed a specific transmission variation. The weekly ILI case number and virus isolation rate had a very close positive correlation (r = 0.774, P < 0.0001). The impact of ILI and influenza on weekly outpatient visits was statistically significant (P < 0.05). We determined that 10.7% of outpatient visits were associated with ILI and 1.88% were associated with influenza. ILI also had a significant influence on the hospitalization rates (P < 0.05), but mainly in populations <25 years of age. No statistically significant effect of influenza on hospital admissions was found (P > 0.05). The impact of ILI on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) was most significant (P < 0.05), with 33.1% of COPD-related deaths being attributable to ILI. The impact of influenza on the mortality rate requires further evaluation.

Conclusions

ILI is a feasible indicator of influenza activity. Both ILI and influenza have a large impact on outpatient visits. Although ILI affects the number of hospital admissions and deaths, we found no consistent influence of influenza, which requires further assessment.     

Probabilistic Daily ILI Syndromic Surveillance with a Spatio-Temporal Bayesian Hierarchical Model

Background

For daily syndromic surveillance to be effective, an efficient and sensible algorithm would be expected to detect aberrations in influenza illness, and alert public health workers prior to any impending epidemic. This detection or alert surely contains uncertainty, and thus should be evaluated with a proper probabilistic measure. However, traditional monitoring mechanisms simply provide a binary alert, failing to adequately address this uncertainty.

Methods and Findings

Based on the Bayesian posterior probability of influenza-like illness (ILI) visits, the intensity of outbreak can be directly assessed. The numbers of daily emergency room ILI visits at five community hospitals in Taipei City during 2006–2007 were collected and fitted with a Bayesian hierarchical model containing meteorological factors such as temperature and vapor pressure, spatial interaction with conditional autoregressive structure, weekend and holiday effects, seasonality factors, and previous ILI visits. The proposed algorithm recommends an alert for action if the posterior probability is larger than 70%. External data from January to February of 2008 were retained for validation. The decision rule detects successfully the peak in the validation period. When comparing the posterior probability evaluation with the modified Cusum method, results show that the proposed method is able to detect the signals 1–2 days prior to the rise of ILI visits.

Conclusions

This Bayesian hierarchical model not only constitutes a dynamic surveillance system but also constructs a stochastic evaluation of the need to call for alert. The monitoring mechanism provides earlier detection as well as a complementary tool for current surveillance programs.     

Elevated Steady State WBC and Platelet Counts Are Associated with Frequent Emergency Room Use in Adults with Sickle Cell Anemia

Introduction

Sickle cell anemia has many sequelae that result in emergency department (ED) use, but a minority of patients with sickle cell disease are frequent utilizers and make up the majority of ED visits. If patients who are likely to be frequent ED can be identified in steady state, they can be treated with disease modifying agents in an attempt to reduce ED use frequency. We sought to identify steady state markers for frequent ED use.

Methods

We identified all patients with SS/Sβ0 seen at our facilities in 2012. Health care utilization over the entire year was calculated and ED visit numbers categorized as either 0–1, 2–5, or 6 or more visits a year. Steady state and acutely active laboratory parameters were collected and analyzed using analysis of variance models and odds ratios.

Results

432 adult sickle cell patients were identified, ages 18–87, 54% female, and 38% had been prescribed hydroxyurea. Of the 432 patients,192 had 0–1 visits in the year, 144 had 2–5 visits in the year, and 96 had >6 visits for a total of 2259 visits. Those who had >6 visits accounted for 1750 (77%) of the total visits for the year. When steady state laboratory markers were examined, each additional 50x109/L platelets was associated with 22% greater risk (p < .001); each 1x109/L of WBC was associated with 11% greater risk (p = .003), and each 1g/dL Hb was associated with 23% lower risk (p = .007) of >6 ED visits/year. We did not observe a relationship between baseline HbF, LDH or reticulocyte count with >6 ED visits.

Conclusion

Patients with elevated white blood cell counts, elevated platelet counts, and low hemoglobin levels exhibited higher risk for frequent ED utilization and could be candidates for early and aggressive therapy with disease modifying agents.     

Unscheduled-Return-Visits after an Emergency Department (ED) Attendance and Clinical Link between Both Visits in Patients Aged 75 Years and Over: A Prospective Observational Study

Background

Predictors of unscheduled return visits (URV), best time-frame to evaluate URV rate and clinical relationship between both visits have not yet been determined for the elderly following an ED visit.

Methods

We conducted a prospective-observational study including 11,521 patients aged ≥75-years and discharged from ED (5,368 patients (53.5%)) or hospitalized after ED visit (6,153 patients). Logistic Regression and time-to-failure analyses including Cox proportional model were performed.

Results

Mean time to URV was 17 days; 72-hour, 30-day and 90-day URV rates were 1.8%, 6.1% and 10% respectively. Multivariate analysis indicates that care-pathway and final disposition decisions were significantly associated with a 30-day URV. Thus, we evaluated predictors of 30-day URV rates among non-admitted and hospitalized patient groups. By using the Cox model we found that, for non-admitted patients, triage acuity and diagnostic category and, for hospitalized patients, that visit time (day, night) and diagnostic categories were significant predictors (p<0.001). For URV, we found that 25% were due to closely related-clinical conditions. Time lapses between both visits constituted the strongest predictor of closely related-clinical conditions.

Conclusion

Our study shows that a decision of non-admission in emergency departments is linked with an accrued risk of URV, and that some diagnostic categories are also related for non-admitted and hospitalized subjects alike. Our study also demonstrates that the best time frame to evaluate the URV rate after an ED visit is 30 days, because this is the time period during which most URVs and cases with close clinical relationships between two visits are concentrated. Our results suggest that URV can be used as an indicator or quality.     

Vitamin D Supplementation for Childhood Asthma: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Importance

There is growing evidence that vitamin D plays a role in the pathogenesis of asthma but it is unclear whether supplementation during childhood may improve asthma outcomes.

Objectives

The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of vitamin D supplementation as a treatment or adjunct treatment for asthma.

Data Sources

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, CENTRAL, and CINAHL through July 2014.

Study Selection

We included RCTs that evaluated vitamin D supplementation in children versus active control or placebo for asthma.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

One reviewer extracted data and one reviewer verified data accuracy. We qualitatively summarized the main results of efficacy and safety and meta-analyzed data on comparable outcomes across studies. We used GRADE for strength of evidence.

Main Outcome Measures

Main planned outcomes measures were ED visits and hospitalizations. As secondary outcomes, we examined measures of asthma control, including frequency of asthma exacerbations, asthma symptom scores, measures of lung function, β₂-agonist use and daily steroid use, adverse events and 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels.

Results

Eight RCTs (one parallel, one crossover design) comprising 573 children aged 3 to 18 years were included. One study (moderate-quality, n = 100) reported significantly less ED visits for children treated with vitamin D. No other studies examined the primary outcome (ED visits and hospitalizations). There was a reduced risk of asthma exacerbations in children receiving vitamin D (low-quality; RR 0.41, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.63, 3 studies, n = 378). There was no significant effect for asthma symptom scores and lung function. The serum 25(OH)D level was higher in the vitamin D group at the end of the intervention (low-quality; MD 19.66 nmol/L, 95% CI 5.96 nmol/L to 33.37 nmol/L, 5 studies, n = 167).

Limitations

We identified a high degree of clinical diversity (interventions and outcomes) and methodological heterogeneity (sample size and risk of bias) in included trials.

Conclusions and Relevance

Randomized controlled trials provide some low-quality evidence to support vitamin D supplementation for the reduction of asthma exacerbations. Evidence on the benefits of vitamin D supplementation for other asthma-related outcomes in children is either limited or inconclusive. We recommend that future trials focus on patient-relevant outcomes that are comparable across studies, including standardized definitions of asthma exacerbations.     

Coliform Bacteria as Indicators of Diarrheal Risk in Household Drinking Water: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Current guidelines recommend the use of Escherichia coli (EC) or thermotolerant (“fecal”) coliforms (FC) as indicators of fecal contamination in drinking water. Despite their broad use as measures of water quality, there remains limited evidence for an association between EC or FC and diarrheal illness: a previous review found no evidence for a link between diarrhea and these indicators in household drinking water.

Objectives

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to update the results of the previous review with newly available evidence, to explore differences between EC and FC indicators, and to assess the quality of available evidence.

Methods

We searched major databases using broad terms for household water quality and diarrhea. We extracted study characteristics and relative risks (RR) from relevant studies. We pooled RRs using random effects models with inverse variance weighting, and used standard methods to evaluate heterogeneity and publication bias.

Results

We identified 20 relevant studies; 14 studies provided extractable results for meta-analysis. When combining all studies, we found no association between EC or FC and diarrhea (RR 1.26 [95% CI: 0.98, 1.63]). When analyzing EC and FC separately, we found evidence for an association between diarrhea and EC (RR: 1.54 [95% CI: 1.37, 1.74]) but not FC (RR: 1.07 [95% CI: 0.79, 1.45]). Across all studies, we identified several elements of study design and reporting (e.g., timing of outcome and exposure measurement, accounting for correlated outcomes) that could be improved upon in future studies that evaluate the association between drinking water contamination and health.

Conclusions

Our findings, based on a review of the published literature, suggest that these two coliform groups have different associations with diarrhea in household drinking water. Our results support the use of EC as a fecal indicator in household drinking water.     

Precipitation and Primary Health Care Visits for Gastrointestinal Illness in Gothenburg,Sweden

Background

The river Göta Älv is a source of freshwater for the City of Gothenburg, Sweden, and we recently identified a clear influence of upstream precipitation on concentrations of indicator bacteria in the river water, as well as an association with the daily number of phone calls to the nurse advice line related to acute gastrointestinal illnesses (AGI calls). This study aimed to examine visits to primary health-care centers owing to similar symptoms (AGI visits) in the same area, to explore associations with precipitation, and to compare variability in AGI visits and AGI calls.

Methods

We obtained data covering six years (2007–2012) of daily AGI visits and studied their association with prior precipitation (0–28 days) using a distributed lag nonlinear Poisson regression model, adjusting for seasonal patterns and covariates. In addition, we studied the effects of prolonged wet and dry weather on AGI visits. We analyzed lagged short-term relations between AGI visits and AGI calls, and we studied differences in their seasonal patterns using a binomial regression model.

Results

The study period saw a total of 17,030 AGI visits, and the number of daily visits decreased on days when precipitation occurred. However, prolonged wet weather was associated with an elevated number of AGI visits. Differences in seasonality patterns were observed between AGI visits and AGI calls, as visits were relatively less frequent during winter and relatively more frequent in August, and only weak short-term relations were found.

Conclusion

AGI visits and AGI calls seems to partly reflect different types of AGI illnesses, and the patients’ choice of medical contact (in-person visits versus phone calls) appears to depend on current weather conditions. An association between prolonged wet weather and increased AGI visits supports the hypothesis that the drinking water is related to an increased risk of AGI illnesses.     

Adverse Trends in Ischemic Heart Disease Mortality among Young New Yorkers,Particularly Young Black Women

Background

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality has been on the decline in the United States for decades. However, declines in IHD mortality have been slower in certain groups, including young women and black individuals.

Hypothesis

Trends in IHD vary by age, sex, and race in New York City (NYC). Young female minorities are a vulnerable group that may warrant renewed efforts to reduce IHD.

Methods

IHD mortality trends were assessed in NYC 1980–2008. NYC Vital Statistics data were obtained for analysis. Age-specific IHD mortality rates and confidence bounds were estimated. Trends in IHD mortality were compared by age and race/ethnicity using linear regression of log-transformed mortality rates. Rates and trends in IHD mortality rates were compared between subgroups defined by age, sex and race/ethnicity.

Results

The decline in IHD mortality rates slowed in 1999 among individuals aged 35–54 years but not ≥55. IHD mortality rates were higher among young men than women age 35–54, but annual declines in IHD mortality were slower for women. Black women age 35–54 had higher IHD mortality rates and slower declines in IHD mortality than women of other race/ethnicity groups. IHD mortality trends were similar in black and white men age 35–54.

Conclusions

The decline in IHD mortality rates has slowed in recent years among younger, but not older, individuals in NYC. There was an association between sex and race/ethnicity on IHD mortality rates and trends. Young black women may benefit from targeted medical and public health interventions to reduce IHD mortality.     

Emergency Department Non-Urgent Visits and Hospital Readmissions Are Associated with Different Socio-Economic Variables in Italy

Objective

The aim of this paper was to evaluate socio-economic factors associated to poor primary care utilization by studying two specific subjects: the hospital readmission rate, and the use of the Emergency Department (ED) for non-urgent visits.

Methods

The study was carried out by the analysis of administrative database for hospital readmission and with a specific survey for non-urgent ED use.

Results

Among the 416,698 sampled admissions, 6.39% (95% CI, 6.32–6.47) of re-admissions have been registered; the distribution shows a high frequency of events in the age 65–84 years group, and in the intermediate care hospitals (51.97%; 95%CI 51.37–52.57). The regression model has shown the significant role played by age, type of structure (geriatric acute care), and deprivation index of the area of residence on the readmission, however, after adjusting for the intensity of primary care, the role of deprivation was no more significant. Non-urgent ED visits accounted for the 12.10%, (95%CI 9.38–15.27) of the total number of respondents to the questionnaire (N = 504). The likelihood of performing a non-urgent ED visit was higher among patients aged <65 years (OR 3.2, 95%CI 1.3–7.8 p = 0.008), while it was lower among those perceiving as urgent their health problem (OR 0.50, 95%CI 0.30–0.90).

Conclusions

In the Italian context repeated readmissions and ED utilization are linked to different trajectories, besides the increasing age and comorbidity of patients are the factors that are related to repeated admissions, the self-perceived trust in diagnostic technologies is an important risk factor in determining ED visits. Better use of public national health care service is mandatory, since its correct utilization is associated to increasing equity and better health care utilization.     

Multi-Generational Drinking of Bottled Low Mineral Water Impairs Bone Quality in Female Rats

Background

Because of reproductions and hormone changes, females are more sensitive to bone mineral loss during their lifetime. Bottled water has become more popular in recent years, and a large number of products are low mineral water. However, research on the effects of drinking bottled low mineral water on bone health is sparse.

Objective

To elucidate the skeletal effects of multi-generational bottled water drinking in female rats.

Methods

Rats continuously drank tap water (TW), bottled natural water (bNW), bottled mineralized water (bMW), or bottled purified water (bPW) for three generations.

Results

The maximum deflection, elastic deflection, and ultimate strain of the femoral diaphysis in the bNW, bMW, and bPW groups and the fracture strain in the bNW and bMW groups were significantly decreased. The tibiae calcium levels in both the bNW and bPW groups were significantly lower than that in the TW group. The tibiae and teeth magnesium levels in both the bNW and bPW groups were significantly lower than those in the TW group. The collagen turnover markers PICP (in both bNW and bPW groups) were significantly lower than that in the TW group. In all three low mineral water groups, the 1,25-dihydroxy-vitamin D levels were significantly lower than those in the TW group.

Conclusion

Long-term drinking of low mineral water may disturb bone metabolism and biochemical properties and therefore weaken biomechanical bone properties in females. Drinking tap water, which contains adequate minerals, was found to be better for bone health. To our knowledge, this is the first report on drinking bottled low mineral water and female bone quality on three generation model.     

Clinical Presentation and Birth Outcomes Associated with Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in Pregnancy

Background

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most important cause of viral pneumonia in children worldwide. A maternal vaccine may protect both the mother and infant from RSV illness. The epidemiology and clinical presentation of RSV in pregnant and postpartum women is not well-described.

Methods

Data were collected from a prospective, randomized trial of influenza immunization in pregnant women in rural southern Nepal. Women were enrolled in their second trimester of pregnancy and followed until six months postpartum. Active weekly home-based surveillance for febrile respiratory illness was performed. Mid-nasal swabs collected with episodes of respiratory illness were tested for RSV by real-time polymerase chain reaction.

Results

RSV was detected in 14 (0.4%) illness episodes in 3693 women over 3554 person-years of surveillance from 2011–2014. RSV incidence was 3.9/1000 person-years overall, and 11.8/1000 person-years between September and December. Seven (50%) women sought care for RSV illness; none died. Of the 7 (50%) illness episodes during pregnancy, all had live births with 2 (29%) preterm births and a median birthweight of 3060 grams. This compares to 469 (13%) preterm births and a median birthweight of 2790 grams in women without RSV during pregnancy. Of the 7 mothers with postpartum RSV infection, RSV was detected in 4 (57%) of their infants.

Conclusions

RSV was an uncommon cause of febrile respiratory illness in mothers during pregnancy in Nepal. These data will inform prevention and therapeutic strategies against RSV in resource-limited settings.     

Surveillance and Vaccine Effectiveness of an Influenza Epidemic Predominated by Vaccine-Mismatched Influenza B/Yamagata-Lineage Viruses in Taiwan, 2011?12 Season

Introduction

The 2011−12 trivalent influenza vaccine contains a strain of influenza B/Victoria-lineage viruses. Despite free provision of influenza vaccine among target populations, an epidemic predominated by influenza B/Yamagata-lineage viruses occurred during the 2011−12 season in Taiwan. We characterized this vaccine-mismatched epidemic and estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE).

Methods

Influenza activity was monitored through sentinel viral surveillance, emergency department (ED) and outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI) syndromic surveillance, and case-based surveillance of influenza with complications and deaths. VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza was evaluated through a case-control study on ILI patients enrolled into sentinel viral surveillance. Logistic regression was used to estimate VE adjusted for confounding factors.

Results

During July 2011−June 2012, influenza B accounted for 2,382 (72.5%) of 3,285 influenza-positive respiratory specimens. Of 329 influenza B viral isolates with antigen characterization, 287 (87.2%) were B/Yamagata-lineage viruses. Proportions of ED and outpatient visits being ILI-related increased from November 2011 to January 2012. Of 1,704 confirmed cases of influenza with complications, including 154 (9.0%) deaths, influenza B accounted for 1,034 (60.7%) of the confirmed cases and 103 (66.9%) of the deaths. Reporting rates of confirmed influenza with complications and deaths were 73.5 and 6.6 per 1,000,000, respectively, highest among those aged ≥65 years, 50−64 years, 3−6 years, and 0−2 years. Adjusted VE was −31% (95% CI: −80, 4) against all influenza, 54% (95% CI: 3, 78) against influenza A, and −66% (95% CI: −132, −18) against influenza B.

Conclusions

This influenza epidemic in Taiwan was predominated by B/Yamagata-lineage viruses unprotected by the 2011−12 trivalent vaccine. The morbidity and mortality of this vaccine-mismatched epidemic warrants careful consideration of introducing a quadrivalent influenza vaccine that includes strains of both B lineages.     

Assessing syndromic surveillance of cardiovascular outcomes from emergency department chief complaint data in New York City

Background

Prospective syndromic surveillance of emergency department visits has been used for near-real time tracking of communicable diseases to detect outbreaks or other unexpected disease clusters. The utility of syndromic surveillance for tracking cardiovascular events, which may be influenced by environmental factors and influenza, has not been evaluated. We developed and evaluated a method for tracking cardiovascular events using emergency department free-text chief complaints.

Methodology/Principal Findings

There were three phases to our analysis. First we applied text processing algorithms based on sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value to chief complaint data reported by 11 New York City emergency departments for which ICD-9 discharge diagnosis codes were available. Second, the same algorithms were applied to data reported by a larger sample of 50 New York City emergency departments for which discharge diagnosis was unavailable. From this more complete data, we evaluated the consistency of temporal variation of cardiovascular syndromic events and hospitalizations from 76 New York City hospitals. Finally, we examined associations between particulate matter ≤2.5 µm (PM_2.5), syndromic events, and hospitalizations. Sensitivity and positive predictive value were low for syndromic events, while specificity was high. Utilizing the larger sample of emergency departments, a strong day of week pattern and weak seasonal trend were observed for syndromic events and hospitalizations. These time-series were highly correlated after removing the day-of-week, holiday, and seasonal trends. The estimated percent excess risks in the cold season (October to March) were 1.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.6, 3.2), 2.1% (95% CI: 0.9, 3.3), and 1.8% (95%CI: 0.5, 3.0) per same-day 10 µg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 for cardiac-only syndromic data, cardiovascular syndromic data, and hospitalizations, respectively.

Conclusions/Significance

Near real-time emergency department chief complaint data may be useful for timely surveillance of cardiovascular morbidity related to ambient air pollution and other environmental events.