Continuous Covariates in Mark‐Recapture‐Recovery Analysis: A Comparison of Methods

Summary Time varying, individual covariates are problematic in experiments with marked animals because the covariate can typically only be observed when each animal is captured. We examine three methods to incorporate time varying, individual covariates of the survival probabilities into the analysis of data from mark‐recapture‐recovery experiments: deterministic imputation, a Bayesian imputation approach based on modeling the joint distribution of the covariate and the capture history, and a conditional approach considering only the events for which the associated covariate data are completely observed (the trinomial model). After describing the three methods, we compare results from their application to the analysis of the effect of body mass on the survival of Soay sheep (Ovis aries) on the Isle of Hirta, Scotland. Simulations based on these results are then used to make further comparisons. We conclude that both the trinomial model and Bayesian imputation method perform best in different situations. If the capture and recovery probabilities are all high, then the trinomial model produces precise, unbiased estimators that do not depend on any assumptions regarding the distribution of the covariate. In contrast, the Bayesian imputation method performs substantially better when capture and recovery probabilities are low, provided that the specified model of the covariate is a good approximation to the true data‐generating mechanism.     

Bayesian latent multi‐state modeling for nonequidistant longitudinal electronic health records

Large amounts of longitudinal health records are now available for dynamic monitoring of the underlying processes governing the observations. However, the health status progression across time is not typically observed directly: records are observed only when a subject interacts with the system, yielding irregular and often sparse observations. This suggests that the observed trajectories should be modeled via a latent continuous‐time process potentially as a function of time‐varying covariates. We develop a continuous‐time hidden Markov model to analyze longitudinal data accounting for irregular visits and different types of observations. By employing a specific missing data likelihood formulation, we can construct an efficient computational algorithm. We focus on Bayesian inference for the model: this is facilitated by an expectation‐maximization algorithm and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Simulation studies demonstrate that these approaches can be implemented efficiently for large data sets in a fully Bayesian setting. We apply this model to a real cohort where patients suffer from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with the outcome being the number of drugs taken, using health care utilization indicators and patient characteristics as covariates.     

Circulating miR‐145 is associated with plasma high‐sensitivity C‐reactive protein in acute ischemic stroke patients

Stroke is a major cerebrovascular disease threatening human health and life with high morbidity, disability and mortality. We aimed to find effective biomarkers for the early diagnosis on stroke. Nine previously reported stroke‐associated miRNAs (miR‐21, miR‐23a, miR‐29b, miR‐124, miR‐145, miR‐210, miR‐221, miR‐223 and miR‐483‐5p) were measured by quantitative real time‐PCR, and plasma high‐sensitivity C‐reactive protein (hs‐CRP) and serum interleukin 6 (IL‐6), the pro‐inflammation markers in brain injury, were examined by enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assay in 146 acute ischemic stroke patients and 96 healthy blood donors. We found that serum miR‐145 was significantly increased within 24 h after stroke onset and serum miR‐23a and miR‐221 were decreased in patients. Moreover, serum miR‐145 was strong positively correlated with plasma hs‐CRP and moderate positively correlated with serum IL‐6. Meanwhile, serum miR‐23a and miR‐221 were moderate negatively correlated with plasma hs‐CRP but not serum IL‐6. Importantly, the combination of hs‐CRP and serum miR‐145 gained a better sensitivity/spectivity for prediction of acute ischemia stroke (area under receiver operating characteristic curve from 0.794 to 0.896). Conclusively, our preliminary findings indicate that serum miR‐145 upregulated in acute ischemic stroke might be a new biomarker for acute ischemia stroke evaluation. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatio‐temporal Modelling of Weeds by Shot‐noise G Cox processes

Tractable space‐time point processes models are needed in various fields. For example in weed science for gaining biological knowledge, for prediction of weed development in order to optimize local treatments with herbicides or in epidemiology for prediction of the risk of a disease. Motivated by the spatio‐temporal point patterns for two weed species, we propose a spatio‐temporal Cox model with intensity based on gamma random fields. The model is an extension of Neyman–Scott and shot‐noise Cox processes to the space‐time domain and it allows spatial and temporal inhomogeneity. We use the weed example to give a first intuitive interpretation of the model and then show how the model is constructed more rigorously and how to estimate the parameters. The weed data are analysed using the proposed model, and both spatially and temporally the model shows a good fit to the data using classical goodness‐of‐fit tests.     

Quantification of length‐bias in screening trials with covariate‐dependent test sensitivity

Length‐biased sampling exists in screening programs where longer duration disease is detected during the preclinical stage because a longer sojourn time (preclinical duration) has a higher probability of being screen detected. By modeling the course of disease, we quantify the effect of length‐biased sampling on clinical duration when cases are subject to periodic screening with variable test sensitivity. We use the highly flexible bivariate lognormal density to jointly model preclinical and clinical durations, and we model screening test sensitivity as a function of the sojourn time and number of previous false negative screens. We show that the mean clinical duration among screen‐detected cases can be up to 40% higher, with shrinking standard deviation, than those among nonscreen‐detected cases, due to biased sampling alone, irrespective of any possible benefit (increased survival time arising from earlier detection or reduction in mortality). These findings will aid in the design and interpretation of screening trials.     

Cox proportional hazards models with left truncation and time‐varying coefficient: Application of age at event as outcome in cohort studies

When analyzing time‐to‐event cohort data, two different ways of choosing a time scale have been discussed in the literature: time‐on‐study or age at onset of disease. One advantage of choosing the latter is interpretability of the hazard ratio as a function of age. To handle the analysis of age at onset in a principled manner, we present an analysis of the Cox Proportional Hazards model with time‐varying coefficient for left‐truncated and right‐censored data. In the analysis of Northern Manhattan Study (NOMAS) with age at onset of stroke as outcome, we demonstrate that well‐established risk factors may be important only around a certain age span and less established risk factors can have a strong effect in a certain age span.     

Bivariate random‐effects meta‐analysis models for diagnostic test accuracy studies using arcsine‐based transformations

Diagnostic or screening tests are widely used in medical fields to classify patients according to their disease status. Several statistical models for meta‐analysis of diagnostic test accuracy studies have been developed to synthesize test sensitivity and specificity of a diagnostic test of interest. Because of the correlation between test sensitivity and specificity, modeling the two measures using a bivariate model is recommended. In this paper, we extend the current standard bivariate linear mixed model (LMM) by proposing two variance‐stabilizing transformations: the arcsine square root and the Freeman–Tukey double arcsine transformation. We compared the performance of the proposed methods with the standard method through simulations using several performance measures. The simulation results showed that our proposed methods performed better than the standard LMM in terms of bias, root mean square error, and coverage probability in most of the scenarios, even when data were generated assuming the standard LMM. We also illustrated the methods using two real data sets.     

Cox model with interval‐censored covariate in cohort studies

In cohort studies the outcome is often time to a particular event, and subjects are followed at regular intervals. Periodic visits may also monitor a secondary irreversible event influencing the event of primary interest, and a significant proportion of subjects develop the secondary event over the period of follow‐up. The status of the secondary event serves as a time‐varying covariate, but is recorded only at the times of the scheduled visits, generating incomplete time‐varying covariates. While information on a typical time‐varying covariate is missing for entire follow‐up period except the visiting times, the status of the secondary event are unavailable only between visits where the status has changed, thus interval‐censored. One may view interval‐censored covariate of the secondary event status as missing time‐varying covariates, yet missingness is partial since partial information is provided throughout the follow‐up period. Current practice of using the latest observed status produces biased estimators, and the existing missing covariate techniques cannot accommodate the special feature of missingness due to interval censoring. To handle interval‐censored covariates in the Cox proportional hazards model, we propose an available‐data estimator, a doubly robust‐type estimator as well as the maximum likelihood estimator via EM algorithm and present their asymptotic properties. We also present practical approaches that are valid. We demonstrate the proposed methods using our motivating example from the Northern Manhattan Study.     

Sun‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence from high‐resolution imaging spectroscopy data to quantify spatio‐temporal patterns of photosynthetic function in crop canopies

Passive detection of sun‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) using spectroscopy has been proposed as a proxy to quantify changes in photochemical efficiency at canopy level under natural light conditions. In this study, we explored the use of imaging spectroscopy to quantify spatio‐temporal dynamics of SIF within crop canopies and its sensitivity to track patterns of photosynthetic activity originating from the interaction between vegetation structure and incoming radiation as well as variations in plant function. SIF was retrieved using the Fraunhofer Line Depth (FLD) principle from imaging spectroscopy data acquired at different time scales a few metres above several crop canopies growing under natural illumination. We report the first maps of canopy SIF in high spatial resolution. Changes of SIF were monitored at different time scales ranging from quick variations under induced stress conditions to seasonal dynamics. Natural changes were primarily determined by varying levels and distribution of photosynthetic active radiation (PAR). However, this relationship changed throughout the day demonstrating an additional physiological component modulating spatio‐temporal patterns of SIF emission. We successfully used detailed SIF maps to track changes in the canopy's photochemical activity under field conditions, providing a new tool to evaluate complex patterns of photosynthesis within the canopy.     

Time for a rethink: time sub‐sampling methods in disparity‐through‐time analyses

Disparity‐through‐time analyses can be used to determine how morphological diversity changes in response to mass extinctions, or to investigate the drivers of morphological change. These analyses are routinely applied to palaeobiological datasets, yet, although there is much discussion about how to best calculate disparity, there has been little consideration of how taxa should be sub‐sampled through time. Standard practice is to group taxa into discrete time bins, often based on stratigraphic periods. However, this can introduce biases when bins are of unequal size, and implicitly assumes a punctuated model of evolution. In addition, many time bins may have few or no taxa, meaning that disparity cannot be calculated for the bin and making it harder to complete downstream analyses. Here we describe a different method to complement the disparity‐through‐time tool‐kit: time‐slicing. This method uses a time‐calibrated phylogenetic tree to sample disparity‐through‐time at any fixed point in time rather than binning taxa. It uses all available data (tips, nodes and branches) to increase the power of the analyses, specifies the implied model of evolution (punctuated or gradual), and is implemented in R. We test the time‐slicing method on four example datasets and compare its performance in common disparity‐through‐time analyses. We find that the way we time sub‐sample taxa can change our interpretations of the results of disparity‐through‐time analyses. We advise using multiple methods for time sub‐sampling taxa, rather than just time binning, to gain a better understanding disparity‐through‐time.     

A varying‐coefficient generalized odds rate model with time‐varying exposure: An application to fitness and cardiovascular disease mortality

Varying‐coefficient models have become a common tool to determine whether and how the association between an exposure and an outcome changes over a continuous measure. These models are complicated when the exposure itself is time‐varying and subjected to measurement error. For example, it is well known that longitudinal physical fitness has an impact on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. It is not known, however, how the effect of longitudinal physical fitness on CVD mortality varies with age. In this paper, we propose a varying‐coefficient generalized odds rate model that allows flexible estimation of age‐modified effects of longitudinal physical fitness on CVD mortality. In our model, the longitudinal physical fitness is measured with error and modeled using a mixed‐effects model, and its associated age‐varying coefficient function is represented by cubic B‐splines. An expectation‐maximization algorithm is developed to estimate the parameters in the joint models of longitudinal physical fitness and CVD mortality. A modified pseudoadaptive Gaussian‐Hermite quadrature method is adopted to compute the integrals with respect to random effects involved in the E‐step. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated through extensive simulation studies and is further illustrated with an application to cohort data from the Aerobic Center Longitudinal Study.     

Continental‐scale tree‐ring‐based projection of Douglas‐fir growth: Testing the limits of space‐for‐time substitution

A central challenge in global change research is the projection of the future behavior of a system based upon past observations. Tree‐ring data have been used increasingly over the last decade to project tree growth and forest ecosystem vulnerability under future climate conditions. But how can the response of tree growth to past climate variation predict the future, when the future does not look like the past? Space‐for‐time substitution (SFTS) is one way to overcome the problem of extrapolation: the response at a given location in a warmer future is assumed to follow the response at a warmer location today. Here we evaluated an SFTS approach to projecting future growth of Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), a species that occupies an exceptionally large environmental space in North America. We fit a hierarchical mixed‐effects model to capture ring‐width variability in response to spatial and temporal variation in climate. We found opposing gradients for productivity and climate sensitivity with highest growth rates and weakest response to interannual climate variation in the mesic coastal part of Douglas‐fir's range; narrower rings and stronger climate sensitivity occurred across the semi‐arid interior. Ring‐width response to spatial versus temporal temperature variation was opposite in sign, suggesting that spatial variation in productivity, caused by local adaptation and other slow processes, cannot be used to anticipate changes in productivity caused by rapid climate change. We thus substituted only climate sensitivities when projecting future tree growth. Growth declines were projected across much of Douglas‐fir's distribution, with largest relative decreases in the semiarid U.S. Interior West and smallest in the mesic Pacific Northwest. We further highlight the strengths of mixed‐effects modeling for reviving a conceptual cornerstone of dendroecology, Cook's 1987 aggregate growth model, and the great potential to use tree‐ring networks and results as a calibration target for next‐generation vegetation models.     

Analysis of interval‐censored recurrent event processes subject to resolution

Interval‐censored recurrent event data arise when the event of interest is not readily observed but the cumulative event count can be recorded at periodic assessment times. In some settings, chronic disease processes may resolve, and individuals will cease to be at risk of events at the time of disease resolution. We develop an expectation‐maximization algorithm for fitting a dynamic mover‐stayer model to interval‐censored recurrent event data under a Markov model with a piecewise‐constant baseline rate function given a latent process. The model is motivated by settings in which the event times and the resolution time of the disease process are unobserved. The likelihood and algorithm are shown to yield estimators with small empirical bias in simulation studies. Data are analyzed on the cumulative number of damaged joints in patients with psoriatic arthritis where individuals experience disease remission.     

Rapid detection of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus (SFTSV) total antibodies by up‐converting phosphor technology‐based lateral‐flow assay

In this study, an up‐converting phosphor technology‐based lateral‐flow (UPT‐LF) assay was developed to detect severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus (SFTSV) total antibodies rapidly and specifically. SFTSV recombinant N protein (SFTSV‐rNP) was coated on analytical membrane for sample capture, up‐converting phosphor (UCP) particles were used as the reporter, the luminescence emitted by UCP particles was converted to a measurable signal by a biosensor. The performance of UPT‐LF assay was evaluated by testing 302 field serum samples by ELISA (enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assay), Western blotting and UPT‐LF assay. UPT‐LF assay exhibited a lower detection limit than ELISA, and a satisfied level of agreement was exhibited by Kappa statistics (Kappa coefficient = 0.938). Considering Western blotting as the reference for comparison, the sensitivity and specificity of UPT‐LF assay could reach 98.31% and 100%. UPT‐LF assay showed no specific reaction with hantavirus total serum antibodies, which avoids the misdiagnosis of SFTSV from hantavirus that could cause similar clinical symptoms. UPT‐LF assay was able to achieve acceptable results within 15 min and needed only 10 μL sample for each test. As a whole, UPT‐LF assay is a candidate method for on‐site surveillance of SFTSV total antibodies owing to its excellent sensitivity, specificity, stability, easy operation and for being less time consuming.     

Cormack–Jolly–Seber model with environmental covariates: A P‐spline approach

In capture–recapture models, survival and capture probabilities can be modelled as functions of time‐varying covariates, such as temperature or rainfall. The Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model allows for flexible modelling of these covariates; however, the functional relationship may not be linear. We extend the CJS model by semi‐parametrically modelling capture and survival probabilities using a frequentist approach via P‐splines techniques. We investigate the performance of the estimators by conducting simulation studies. We also apply and compare these models with known semi‐parametric Bayesian approaches on simulated and real data sets.     

Survival Analysis with Error‐Prone Time‐Varying Covariates: A Risk Set Calibration Approach

Summary Occupational, environmental, and nutritional epidemiologists are often interested in estimating the prospective effect of time‐varying exposure variables such as cumulative exposure or cumulative updated average exposure, in relation to chronic disease endpoints such as cancer incidence and mortality. From exposure validation studies, it is apparent that many of the variables of interest are measured with moderate to substantial error. Although the ordinary regression calibration (ORC) approach is approximately valid and efficient for measurement error correction of relative risk estimates from the Cox model with time‐independent point exposures when the disease is rare, it is not adaptable for use with time‐varying exposures. By recalibrating the measurement error model within each risk set, a risk set regression calibration (RRC) method is proposed for this setting. An algorithm for a bias‐corrected point estimate of the relative risk using an RRC approach is presented, followed by the derivation of an estimate of its variance, resulting in a sandwich estimator. Emphasis is on methods applicable to the main study/external validation study design, which arises in important applications. Simulation studies under several assumptions about the error model were carried out, which demonstrated the validity and efficiency of the method in finite samples. The method was applied to a study of diet and cancer from Harvard's Health Professionals Follow‐up Study (HPFS).     

Semi‐Markov Models with Phase‐Type Sojourn Distributions

Summary Continuous‐time multistate models are widely used for categorical response data, particularly in the modeling of chronic diseases. However, inference is difficult when the process is only observed at discrete time points, with no information about the times or types of events between observation times, unless a Markov assumption is made. This assumption can be limiting as rates of transition between disease states might instead depend on the time since entry into the current state. Such a formulation results in a semi‐Markov model. We show that the computational problems associated with fitting semi‐Markov models to panel‐observed data can be alleviated by considering a class of semi‐Markov models with phase‐type sojourn distributions. This allows methods for hidden Markov models to be applied. In addition, extensions to models where observed states are subject to classification error are given. The methodology is demonstrated on a dataset relating to development of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome in post‐lung‐transplantation patients.     

Nitric oxide‐mediated regulation of ‐amyloid clearance via alterations of MMP‐9/TIMP‐1

Fibrillar amyloid plaques are largely composed of amyloid‐beta (Aβ) peptides that are metabolized into products, including Aβ1‐16, by proteases including matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP‐9). The balance between production and degradation of Aβ proteins is critical to amyloid accumulation and resulting disease. Regulation of MMP‐9 and its endogenous inhibitor tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase (TIMP)‐1 by nitric oxide (NO) has been shown. We hypothesize that nitric oxide synthase (NOS2) protects against Alzheimer's disease pathology by increasing amyloid clearance through NO regulation of MMP‐9/TIMP‐1 balance. We show NO‐mediated increased MMP‐9/TIMP‐1 ratios enhanced the degradation of fibrillar Aβ in vitro, which was abolished when silenced for MMP‐9 protein translation. The in vivo relationship between MMP‐9, NO and Aβ degradation was examined by comparing an Alzheimer's disease mouse model that expresses NOS2 with a model lacking NOS2. To quantitate MMP‐9 mediated changes, we generated an antibody recognizing the Aβ1‐16 fragment, and used mass spectrometry multi‐reaction monitoring assay for detection of immunoprecipitated Aβ1‐16 peptides. Aβ1‐16 levels decreased in brain lysates lacking NOS2 when compared with strains that express human amyloid precursor protein on the NOS2 background. TIMP‐1 increased in the APPSwDI/NOS2^?/? mice with decreased MMP activity and increased amyloid burden, thereby supporting roles for NO in the regulation of MMP/TIMP balance and plaque clearance.     

Time‐Varying Latent Effect Model for Longitudinal Data with Informative Observation Times

Summary In analysis of longitudinal data, it is not uncommon that observation times of repeated measurements are subject‐specific and correlated with underlying longitudinal outcomes. Taking account of the dependence between observation times and longitudinal outcomes is critical under these situations to assure the validity of statistical inference. In this article, we propose a flexible joint model for longitudinal data analysis in the presence of informative observation times. In particular, the new procedure considers the shared random‐effect model and assumes a time‐varying coefficient for the latent variable, allowing a flexible way of modeling longitudinal outcomes while adjusting their association with observation times. Estimating equations are developed for parameter estimation. We show that the resulting estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal, with variance–covariance matrix that has a closed form and can be consistently estimated by the usual plug‐in method. One additional advantage of the procedure is that it provides a unified framework to test whether the effect of the latent variable is zero, constant, or time‐varying. Simulation studies show that the proposed approach is appropriate for practical use. An application to a bladder cancer data is also given to illustrate the methodology.