Phylogenetic estimates of diversification rate are affected by molecular rate variation

Molecular phylogenies are increasingly being used to investigate the patterns and mechanisms of macroevolution. In particular, node heights in a phylogeny can be used to detect changes in rates of diversification over time. Such analyses rest on the assumption that node heights in a phylogeny represent the timing of diversification events, which in turn rests on the assumption that evolutionary time can be accurately predicted from DNA sequence divergence. But there are many influences on the rate of molecular evolution, which might also influence node heights in molecular phylogenies, and thus affect estimates of diversification rate. In particular, a growing number of studies have revealed an association between the net diversification rate estimated from phylogenies and the rate of molecular evolution. Such an association might, by influencing the relative position of node heights, systematically bias estimates of diversification time. We simulated the evolution of DNA sequences under several scenarios where rates of diversification and molecular evolution vary through time, including models where diversification and molecular evolutionary rates are linked. We show that commonly used methods, including metric‐based, likelihood and Bayesian approaches, can have a low power to identify changes in diversification rate when molecular substitution rates vary. Furthermore, the association between the rates of speciation and molecular evolution rate can cause the signature of a slowdown or speedup in speciation rates to be lost or misidentified. These results suggest that the multiple sources of variation in molecular evolutionary rates need to be considered when inferring macroevolutionary processes from phylogenies.     

Branching patterns in phylogenies cannot distinguish diversity‐dependent diversification from time‐dependent diversification

One of the primary goals of macroevolutionary biology has been to explain general trends in long‐term diversity patterns, including whether such patterns correspond to an upscaling of processes occurring at lower scales. Reconstructed phylogenies often show decelerated lineage accumulation over time. This pattern has often been interpreted as the result of diversity‐dependent (DD) diversification, where the accumulation of species causes diversification to decrease through niche filling. However, other processes can also produce such a slowdown, including time dependence without diversity dependence. To test whether phylogenetic branching patterns can be used to distinguish these two mechanisms, we formulated a time‐dependent, but diversity‐independent model that matches the expected diversity through time of a DD model. We simulated phylogenies under each model and studied how well likelihood methods could recover the true diversification mode. Standard model selection criteria always recovered diversity dependence, even when it was not present. We correct for this bias by using a bootstrap method and find that neither model is decisively supported. This implies that the branching pattern of reconstructed trees contains insufficient information to detect the presence or absence of diversity dependence. We advocate that tests encompassing additional data, for example, traits or range distributions, are needed to evaluate how diversity drives macroevolutionary trends.     

Speciation dynamics during the global radiation of extant bats

Species richness varies widely across extant clades, but the causes of this variation remain poorly understood. We investigate the role of diversification rate heterogeneity in shaping patterns of diversity across families of extant bats. To provide a robust framework for macroevolutionary inference, we assemble a time‐calibrated, species‐level phylogeny using a supermatrix of mitochondrial and nuclear sequence data. We analyze the phylogeny using a Bayesian method for modeling complex evolutionary dynamics. Surprisingly, we find that variation in family richness can largely be explained without invoking heterogeneous diversification dynamics. We document only a single well‐supported shift in diversification dynamics across bats, occurring at the base of the subfamily Stenodermatinae. Bat diversity is phylogenetically imbalanced, but—contrary to previous hypotheses—this pattern is unexplained by any simple patterns of diversification rate heterogeneity. This discordance may indicate that diversification dynamics are more complex than can be captured using the statistical tools available for modeling data at this scale. We infer that bats as a whole are almost entirely united into one macroevolutionary cohort, with decelerating speciation through time. There is also a significant relationship between clade age and richness, suggesting that global bat diversity may still be expanding.     

Investigating the timing of origin and evolutionary processes shaping regional species diversity: Insights from simulated data and neotropical butterfly diversification rates

Different diversification scenarios have been proposed to explain the origin of extant biodiversity. However, most existing meta‐analyses of time‐calibrated phylogenies rely on approaches that do not quantitatively test alternative diversification processes. Here, I highlight the shortcomings of using species divergence ranks, which is a method widely used in meta‐analyses. Divergence ranks consist of categorizing cladogenetic events to certain periods of time, typically to either Pleistocene or to pre‐Pleistocene ages. This approach has been claimed to shed light on the origin of most extant species and the timing and dynamics of diversification in any biogeographical region. However, interpretations drawn from such method often confound two fundamental questions in macroevolutionary studies, tempo (timing of evolutionary rate shifts) and mode (“how” and “why” of speciation). By using simulated phylogenies under four diversification scenarios, constant‐rate, diversity‐dependence, high extinction, and high speciation rates in the Pleistocene, I showed that interpretations based on species divergence ranks might have been seriously misleading. Future meta‐analyses of dated phylogenies need to be aware of the impacts of incomplete taxonomic sampling, tree topology, and divergence time uncertainties, as well as they might be benefited by including quantitative tests of alternative diversification models that acknowledge extinction and diversity dependence.     

Eating down the food chain: generalism is not an evolutionary dead end for herbivores

The role of trophic specialisation in taxonomic diversification remains unclear. Plant specialists diversify faster than omnivores and animalivores, but at shorter macroevolutionary scales this pattern sometimes reverses. Here, we estimate the effect of diet diversification on speciation rates in noctilionoid bats, controlling for tree shape, rate heterogeneity and macroevolutionary regimes. We hypothesise that niche subdivision among herbivores positively relates to speciation rates, differing between macroevolutionary regimes. We found the rate at which new herbivorous lineages originate decreases as rates of diet evolution increase. Herbivores experience higher speciation rates, but generalist herbivores and predominantly herbivorous omnivores speciate faster than specialised herbivores, omnivores and animalivores. Generalised herbivory is not a dead end. We show that analysing ecological traits and diversification requires accounting for macroevolutionary regimes and within‐ and between‐clade variation in evolutionary rates. Our approach overcomes the high false‐positive rates of other methods and illuminates the roles of herbivory and specialisation in speciation.     

THE INFLUENCE OF SAMPLING DESIGN ON SPECIES TREE INFERENCE: A NEW RELATIONSHIP FOR THE NEW WORLD CHICKADEES (AVES: POECILE)

In this study, we explore the long‐standing issue of how many loci are needed to infer accurate phylogenetic relationships, and whether loci with particular attributes (e.g., parsimony informativeness, variability, gene tree resolution) outperform others. To do so, we use an empirical data set consisting of the seven species of chickadees (Aves: Paridae), an analytically tractable, recently diverged group, and well‐studied ecologically but lacking a nuclear phylogeny. We estimate relationships using 40 nuclear loci and mitochondrial DNA using four coalescent‐based species tree inference methods (BEST, *BEAST, STEM, STELLS). Collectively, our analyses contrast with previous studies and support a sister relationship between the Black‐capped and Carolina Chickadee, two superficially similar species that hybridize along a long zone of contact. Gene flow is a potential source of conflict between nuclear and mitochondrial gene trees, yet we find a significant, albeit low, signal of gene flow. Our results suggest that relatively few loci with high information content may be sufficient for estimating an accurate species tree, but that substantially more loci are necessary for accurate parameter estimation. We provide an empirical reference point for researchers designing sampling protocols with the purpose of inferring phylogenies and population parameters of closely related taxa.     

To what extent do new fossil discoveries change our understanding of clade evolution? A cautionary tale from burying beetles (Coleoptera: Nicrophorus)

Divergence time estimates derived from phylogenies are crucial to infer historical biogeography and diversification dynamics. Yet, the impact of fossil record incompleteness on macroevolutionary reconstructions remains equivocal. Here, we investigate to what extent gaps in the fossil record can impinge downstream evolutionary inferences in the beetle family Silphidae. Recent discoveries have pushed back the fossil record of this group from the Eocene into the Jurassic. We estimated the divergence times of the family using both its currently understood fossil record and the fossil record known prior to these recent discoveries. All fossil calibrations were informed with different parametric distributions to investigate the weight of priors on posterior age estimates. Based on time‐calibrated trees, we assessed the impact of fossil calibrations on the inference of ancestral ranges and diversification rate dynamics in the genus Nicrophorus. Depending upon the selected sets of fossil constraints, the age discrepancies had a major impact on the macroevolutionary inferences: the biogeographic extrapolations relative to paleogeography are markedly contrasting, and the calculated rates at which species form or go extinct (and when they varied) are strikingly different. We show that soft prior distributions do not necessarily alleviate such shortcomings therefore preventing the inference of reliable macroevolutionary patterns in groups presenting a taphonomic bias in their fossil record.     

Detecting shifts in diversity limits from molecular phylogenies: what can we know?

Large complete species-level molecular phylogenies can provide the most direct information about the macroevolutionary history of clades having poor fossil records. However, extinction will ultimately erode evidence of pulses of rapid speciation in the deep past. Assessment of how well, and for how long, phylogenies retain the signature of such pulses has hitherto been based on a--probably untenable--model of ongoing diversity-independent diversification. Here, we develop two new tests for changes in diversification 'rules' and evaluate their power to detect sudden increases in equilibrium diversity in clades simulated with diversity-dependent speciation and extinction rates. Pulses of diversification are only detected easily if they occurred recently and if the rate of species turnover at equilibrium is low; rates reported for fossil mammals suggest that the power to detect a doubling of species diversity falls to 50 per cent after less than 50 Myr even with a perfect phylogeny of extant species. Extinction does eventually draw a veil over past dynamics, suggesting that some questions are beyond the limits of inference, but sudden clade-wide pulses of speciation can be detected after many millions of years, even when overall diversity is constrained. Applying our methods to existing phylogenies of mammals and angiosperms identifies intervals of elevated diversification in each.     

Model‐based approach to test hard polytomies in the Eulaemus clade of the most diverse South American lizard genus Liolaemus (Liolaemini,Squamata)

Lack of resolution in a phylogenetic tree is usually represented as a polytomy, and often adding more data (loci and taxa) resolves the species tree. These are the ‘soft’ polytomies, but in other cases additional data fail to resolve relationships; these are the ‘hard’ polytomies. This latter case is often interpreted as a simultaneous radiation of lineages in the history of a clade. Although hard polytomies are difficult to address, model‐based approaches provide new tools to test these hypotheses. Here, we used a clade of 144 species of the South American lizard clade Eulaemus to estimate phylogenies using a traditional concatenated matrix and three species tree methods: *BEAST, BEST, and minimizing deep coalescences (MDC). The different species tree methods recovered largely discordant results, but all resolved the same polytomy (e.g. very short internodes amongst lineages and low nodal support in Bayesian methods). We simulated data sets under eight explicit evolutionary models (including hard polytomies), tested these against empirical data (a total of 14 loci), and found support for two polytomies as the most plausible hypothesis for diversification of this clade. We discuss the performance of these methods and their limitations under the challenging scenario of hard polytomies. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London     

Cryptic diversity in the Mexican highlands: Thousands of UCE loci help illuminate phylogenetic relationships,species limits and divergence times of montane rattlesnakes (Viperidae: Crotalus)

With the continued adoption of genome‐scale data in evolutionary biology comes the challenge of adequately harnessing the information to make accurate phylogenetic inferences. Coalescent‐based methods of species tree inference have become common, and concatenation has been shown in simulation to perform well, particularly when levels of incomplete lineage sorting are low. However, simulation conditions are often overly simplistic, leaving empiricists with uncertainty regarding analytical tools. We use a large ultraconserved element data set (>3,000 loci) from rattlesnakes of the Crotalus triseriatus group to delimit lineages and estimate species trees using concatenation and several coalescent‐based methods. Unpartitioned and partitioned maximum likelihood and Bayesian analysis of the concatenated matrix yield a topology identical to coalescent analysis of a subset of the data in bpp . ASTRAL analysis on a subset of the more variable loci also results in a tree consistent with concatenation and bpp , whereas the SVDquartets phylogeny differs at additional nodes. The size of the concatenated matrix has a strong effect on species tree inference using SVDquartets , warranting additional investigation on optimal data characteristics for this method. Species delimitation analyses suggest up to 16 unique lineages may be present within the C. triseriatus group, with divergences occurring during the Neogene and Quaternary. Network analyses suggest hybridization within the group is relatively rare. Altogether, our results reaffirm the Mexican highlands as a biodiversity hotspot and suggest that coalescent‐based species tree inference on data subsets can provide a strongly supported species tree consistent with concatenation of all loci with a large amount of missing data.     

Adding time‐calibrated branch lengths to the Asteraceae supertree

Abstract New inference techniques, such as supertrees, have improved the construction of large phylogenies, helping to reveal the tree of life. In addition, these large phylogenies have enhanced the study of other evolutionary questions, such as whether traits have evolved in a neutral or adaptive way, or what factors have influenced diversification. However, supertrees usually lack branch lengths, which are necessary for all these issues to be investigated. Here, divergence times within the largest family of flowering plants, namely the Asteraceae, are reviewed to estimate time‐calibrated branch lengths in the supertree of this lineage. An inconsistency between estimated dates of basal branching events and the earliest asteraceous fossil pollen record was detected. In addition, the impact of different methods of branch length assignment on the total number of transitions between states in the reconstruction of sexual system evolution in Asteraceae was investigated. At least for this dataset, different branch length assignation approaches influenced maximum likelihood (ML) reconstructions only and not Bayesian ones. Therefore, the selection of different branch length information is not arbitrary and should be carefully assessed, at least when ML approaches are being used. The reviewed divergence times and the estimated time‐calibrated branch lengths provide a useful tool for future phylogenetic comparative and macroevolutionary studies of Asteraceae.     

Fitting models of continuous trait evolution to incompletely sampled comparative data using approximate Bayesian computation

In recent years, a suite of methods has been developed to fit multiple rate models to phylogenetic comparative data. However, most methods have limited utility at broad phylogenetic scales because they typically require complete sampling of both the tree and the associated phenotypic data. Here, we develop and implement a new, tree-based method called MECCA (Modeling Evolution of Continuous Characters using ABC) that uses a hybrid likelihood/approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)-Markov-Chain Monte Carlo approach to simultaneously infer rates of diversification and trait evolution from incompletely sampled phylogenies and trait data. We demonstrate via simulation that MECCA has considerable power to choose among single versus multiple evolutionary rate models, and thus can be used to test hypotheses about changes in the rate of trait evolution across an incomplete tree of life. We finally apply MECCA to an empirical example of body size evolution in carnivores, and show that there is no evidence for an elevated rate of body size evolution in the pinnipeds relative to terrestrial carnivores. ABC approaches can provide a useful alternative set of tools for future macroevolutionary studies where likelihood-dependent approaches are lacking.     

A performance study of the impact of recombination on species tree analysis

Background

The most widely used state-of-the-art methods for reconstructing species phylogenies from genomic sequence data assume that sampled loci are identically and independently distributed. In principle, free recombination between loci and a lack of intra-locus recombination are necessary to satisfy this assumption. Few studies have quantified the practical impact of recombination on species tree inference methods, and even fewer have used genomic sequence data for this purpose. One prominent exception is the 2012 study of Lanier and Knowles. A main finding from the study was that species tree inference methods are relatively robust to intra-locus recombination, assuming free recombination between loci. The latter assumption means that the open question regarding the impact of recombination on species tree analysis is not fully resolved.

Results

The goal of this study is to further investigate this open question. Using simulations based upon the multi-species coalescent-with-recombination model as well as empirical datasets, we compared common pipeline-based techniques for inferring species phylogenies. The simulation conditions included a range of dataset sizes and several choices for recombination rate which was either uniform across loci or incorporated recombination hotspots. We found that pipelines which explicitly utilize inferred recombination breakpoints to delineate recombination-free intervals result in greater accuracy compared to widely used alternatives that preprocess sequences based upon linkage disequilibrium decay. Furthermore, the use of a relatively simple approach for recombination breakpoint inference does not degrade the accuracy of downstream species tree inference compared to more accurate alternatives.

Conclusions

Our findings clarify the impact of recombination upon current phylogenomic pipelines for species tree inference. Pipeline-based approaches which utilize inferred recombination breakpoints to densely sample loci across genomic sequences can tolerate intra-locus recombination and violations of the assumption of free recombination between loci.

     

Species tree inference in a recent radiation of orioles (Genus Icterus): multiple markers and methods reveal cytonuclear discordance in the northern oriole group

Recent computational advances provide novel opportunities to infer species trees based on multiple independent loci. Thus, single gene trees no longer need suffice as proxies for species phylogenies. Several methods have been developed to deal with the challenges posed by incomplete and stochastic lineage sorting. In this study, we employed four Bayesian methods to infer the phylogeny of a clade of 11 recently diverged oriole species within the genus Icterus. We obtained well-resolved and mostly congruent phylogenies using a set of seven unlinked nuclear intron loci and sampling multiple individuals per species. Most notably, Bayesian concordance analysis generally agreed well with concatenation; the two methods agreed fully on eight of nine nodes. The coalescent-based method ^∗BEAST further supported six of these eight nodes. The fourth method used, BEST, failed to converge despite exhaustive efforts to optimize the tree search. Overall, the results obtained by new species tree methods and concatenation generally corroborate our findings from previous analyses and data sets. However, we found striking disagreement between mitochondrial and nuclear DNA involving relationships within the northern oriole group. Our results highlight the danger of reliance on mtDNA alone for phylogenetic inference. We demonstrate that in spite of low variability and incomplete lineage sorting, multiple nuclear loci can produce largely congruent phylogenies based on multiple species tree methods, even for very closely-related species.     

Estimating diversification rates for higher taxa: BAMM can give problematic estimates of rates and rate shifts

Estimates of diversification rates are invaluable for many macroevolutionary studies. Recently, an approach called BAMM (Bayesian Analysis of Macro‐evolutionary Mixtures) has become widely used for estimating diversification rates and rate shifts. At the same time, several articles have concluded that estimates of net diversification rates from the method‐of‐moments (MS) estimators are inaccurate. Yet, no studies have compared the ability of these two methods to accurately estimate clade diversification rates. Here, we use simulations to compare their performance. We found that BAMM yielded relatively weak relationships between true and estimated diversification rates. This occurred because BAMM underestimated the number of rates shifts across each tree, and assigned high rates to small clades with low rates. Errors in both speciation and extinction rates contributed to these errors, showing that using BAMM to estimate only speciation rates is also problematic. In contrast, the MS estimators (particularly using stem group ages), yielded stronger relationships between true and estimated diversification rates, by roughly twofold. Furthermore, the MS approach remained relatively accurate when diversification rates were heterogeneous within clades, despite the widespread assumption that it requires constant rates within clades. Overall, we caution that BAMM may be problematic for estimating diversification rates and rate shifts.     

Discordance of species trees with their most likely gene trees

Because of the stochastic way in which lineages sort during speciation, gene trees may differ in topology from each other and from species trees. Surprisingly, assuming that genetic lineages follow a coalescent model of within-species evolution, we find that for any species tree topology with five or more species, there exist branch lengths for which gene tree discordance is so common that the most likely gene tree topology to evolve along the branches of a species tree differs from the species phylogeny. This counterintuitive result implies that in combining data on multiple loci, the straightforward procedure of using the most frequently observed gene tree topology as an estimate of the species tree topology can be asymptotically guaranteed to produce an incorrect estimate. We conclude with suggestions that can aid in overcoming this new obstacle to accurate genomic inference of species phylogenies.     

The molecular phylogenetic signature of clades in decline

Molecular phylogenies have been used to study the diversification of many clades. However, current methods for inferring diversification dynamics from molecular phylogenies ignore the possibility that clades may be decreasing in diversity, despite the fact that the fossil record shows this to be the case for many groups. Here we investigate the molecular phylogenetic signature of decreasing diversity using the most widely used statistic for inferring diversity dynamics from molecular phylogenies, the γ statistic. We show that if a clade is in decline its molecular phylogeny may show evidence of the decrease in the diversification rate that occurred between its diversification and decline phases. The ability to detect the change in diversification rate depends largely on the ratio of the speciation rates of the diversification and decline phases, the higher the ratio the stronger the signal of the change in diversification rate. Consequently, molecular phylogenies of clades in relative rapid decline do not carry a signature of their decreasing diversification. Further, the signal of the change in diversification rate, if present, declines as the diversity drop. Unfortunately, the molecular signature of clades in decline is the same as the signature produced by diversity dependent diversification. Given this similarity, and the inability of current methods to detect declining diversity, it is likely that some of the extant clades that show a decrease in diversification rate, currently interpreted as evidence for diversity dependent diversification, are in fact in decline. Unless methods can be developed that can discriminate between the different modes of diversification, specifically diversity dependent diversification and declining diversity, we will need the fossil record, or data from some other source, to distinguish between these very different diversity trajectories.     

A conceptual and statistical framework for adaptive radiations with a key role for diversity dependence

Abstract In this article we propose a new framework for studying adaptive radiations in the context of diversity-dependent diversification. Diversity dependence causes diversification to decelerate at the end of an adaptive radiation but also plays a key role in the initial pulse of diversification. In particular, key innovations (which in our definition include novel traits as well as new environments) may cause decoupling of the diversity-dependent dynamics of the innovative clade from the diversity-dependent dynamics of its ancestral clade. We present a likelihood-based inference method to test for decoupling of diversity dependence using molecular phylogenies. The method, which can handle incomplete phylogenies, identifies when the decoupling took place and which diversification parameters are affected. We illustrate our approach by applying it to the molecular phylogeny of the North American clade of the legume tribe Psoraleeae (47 extant species, of which 4 are missing). Two diversification rate shifts were previously identified for this clade; our analysis shows that the first, positive shift can be associated with decoupling of two Pediomelum subgenera from the other Psoraleeae lineages, while we argue that the second, negative shift can be attributed to speciation being protracted. The latter explanation yields nonzero extinction rates, in contrast to previous findings. Our framework offers a new perspective on macroevolution: new environments and novel traits (ecological opportunity) and diversity dependence (ecological limits) cannot be considered separately.