Extending the Namibian protected area network to safeguard hotspots of endemism and diversity

Namibia's state protected area network (PAN) covers 13.8% of the country's land area, but is seriously inadequate as a basis for effective biodiversity conservation. The early parks system was not designed with biological diversity in mind, and reflects instead a history of ideological, economic and veterinary considerations. Currently, parks in the Namib Desert biome make up 69% of the PAN, while savanna and woodland biomes are somewhat underrepresented (7.5 and 8.4% of their respective land areas), and the Karoo biome is badly underrepresented (1.6%). Four of 14 desert vegetation types are comprehensively protected, with 67 to 94% representation in the PAN, yet six savanna types have 0 to 2% representation by area. Mountain Savanna, a vegetation type unique to Namibia, is wholly unprotected. The status of two marine reserves, which in theory protect only 0.01% of Namibia's marine environment, needs clarification and augmentation with new reserves. Nearly 85% of Namibia's land is zoned for agriculture, so effective biodiversity protection means working outside the PAN to improve the sustainability and diversity of farming practices. Wildlife conservancies on commercial and communal farmlands show excellent potential to mitigate the ecological skew in the state PAN, with the ecological management of large areas being decentralized to rural communities in habitats otherwise neglected for conservation. Two important endemism zones, the Kaoko escarpment and coastal plain and the Sperrgebiet succulent steppe, plus the species-rich Caprivi area, offer three valuable opportunities for regional consolidation of protected areas into transboundary 'peace parks' or biosphere reserves.     

Comparative footprint of alien, agricultural and restored vegetation on surface-active arthropods

Both invasive alien trees and agricultural conversion have major impacts on biodiversity. We studied here the comparative impact of these two types of land transformation on a wide range of surface-active arthropod species using pitfall traps, with evergreen sclerophyllous natural vegetation (fynbos) as the control. The study was in the Cape Floristic Region, a global biodiversity hotspot, where alien trees are of major concern and where vineyards replace natural fynbos vegetation. Surface-active arthropods were selected as they are species rich, relatively immobile, and occur in high abundance. We hypothesized that the impact of the two types of land cover transformation would produce similar qualitative and quantitative effects on the arthropods. We also compared the results in the transformed and natural areas with those in areas cleared of alien trees. Arthropod species richness in cleared areas was higher than in vineyards and more similar to that in natural fynbos, while alien trees had the lowest. Overall abundance scores were highest in cleared areas, closely followed by fynbos, then vineyards and lowest in alien trees. Several species were restricted to each vegetation type, including alien trees. In terms of assemblage composition, all vegetation types were significantly different, although fynbos and vineyards grouped, suggesting that vineyards have less impact on the arthropod community than do alien trees. When rare species were excluded, vineyards and cleared sites grouped, indicating some recovery but only involving those species that were common and habitat tolerant. Our results suggest that vineyards retain a greater complement of indigenous species than alien trees, but that clearing of these aliens soon encourages establishment of indigenous species. Although there were significant differences in soil moisture and litter depth within and between vegetation types, we did not record them as significantly affecting species richness or abundance, even in alien vegetation, an encouraging sign for restoration.     

Mammal indicator species for protected areas and managed forests in a landscape conservation area of northern India

There is a realization that managed forests and other natural areas in the landscape matrix can and must make significant contributions to biodiversity conservation. Often, however, there are no consistent baseline vegetation or wildlife data for assessing the status of biodiversity elements across protected and managed areas for conservation planning, nor is there a rapid and efficient means to acquire those data. We used a unified vegetation classification and simple animal sampling design to describe the patterns of abundance of selected mammals as indicator, or characteristic, species in different vegetation types and protected areas vs. managed forest units in the Terai Conservation Area (TCA) in northern Uttar Pradesh state, India. We quantified the relative abundance of 15 mammals of conservation concern from dung counts in vegetation sampling plots within 122 sample patches in 13 vegetation types and 4 management units. Assemblages of species differed both among vegetation types and among management units. Species assemblages in the two protected areas differed strongly from those in two managed forests. Grasslands in protected areas were the most species diverse among vegetation types and had several indicator species. Protected forests were dominated by chital (Axis axis) and nilgai (Boselaphus tragocamelus) in a second species group. A third species group in open grasslands and savannas in managed forests was characterized by cattle (Bos taurus) and Indian hare (Lepus nigricollis). Protected areas clearly are the core conservation area of the TCA for their relatively high habitat value and species diversity, and their protected status minimizes human disturbance. Impacts of human use are high in managed forests, indicating their compromised value for biodiversity conservation. Our simple assessment methodology gives managers a simple way to assess the status of important mammals across landscape conservation units.     

Incorporating climate change adaptation into national conservation assessments

The Convention on Biological Diversity requires that member nations establish protected area networks that are representative of the country's biodiversity. The identification of priority sites to achieve outstanding representation targets is typically accomplished through formal conservation assessments. However, representation in conservation assessments or gap analyses has largely been interpreted based on a static view of biodiversity. In a rapidly changing climate, the speed of changes in biodiversity distribution and abundance is causing us to rethink the viability of this approach. Here we describe three explicit strategies for climate change adaptation as part of national conservation assessments: conserving the geophysical stage, identifying and protecting climate refugia, and promoting cross‐environment connectivity. We demonstrate how these three approaches were integrated into a national terrestrial conservation assessment for Papua New Guinea, one of the most biodiverse countries on earth. Protected areas identified based on representing geophysical diversity were able to capture over 90% of the diversity in vegetation communities, suggesting they could help protect representative biodiversity regardless of changes in the distribution of species and communities. By including climate change refugia as part of the national conservation assessment, it was possible to substantially reduce the amount of environmental change expected to be experienced within protected areas, without increasing the overall cost of the protected area network. Explicitly considering environmental heterogeneity between adjacent areas resulted in protected area networks with over 40% more internal environmental connectivity. These three climate change adaptation strategies represent defensible ways to guide national conservation priority given the uncertainty that currently exists in our ability to predict climate changes and their impacts. Importantly, they are also consistent with data and expertise typically available during national conservation assessments, including in developing nations. This means that in the vast majority of countries, these strategies could be implemented immediately.     

Representation of global and national conservation priorities by Colombia's Protected Area Network

Background

How do national-level actions overlap with global priorities for conservation? Answering this question is especially important in countries with high and unique biological diversity like Colombia. Global biodiversity schemes provide conservation guidance at a large scale, while national governments gazette land for protection based on a combination of criteria at regional or local scales. Information on how a protected area network represents global and national conservation priorities is crucial for finding gaps in coverage and for future expansion of the system.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We evaluated the agreement of Colombia''s protected area network with global conservation priorities, and the extent to which the network reflects the country''s biomes, species richness, and common environmental and physical conditions. We used this information to identify priority biomes for conservation. We find the dominant strategy in Colombia has been a proactive one, allocating the highest proportion of protected land on intact, difficult to access and species rich areas like the Amazon. Threatened and unique areas are disproportionately absent from Colombia''s protected lands. We highlight six biomes in Colombia as conservation priorities that should be considered in any future expansion of Colombia''s protected area network. Two of these biomes have less than 3% of their area protected and more than 70% of their area transformed for human use. One has less than 3% protected and high numbers of threatened vertebrates. Three biomes fall in both categories.

Conclusions

Expansion of Colombia''s Protected Area Network should consider the current representativeness of the network. We indicate six priority biomes that can contribute to improving the representation of threatened species and biomes in Colombia.     

Conservation effectiveness of protected areas for Hong Kong butterflies declines under climate change

Protected areas are important in conserving the rapid decline of biodiversity in the Anthropocene. Yet uncertainty persists whether protected areas will continue to meet conservation goals if climate change causes community or ecosystem shifts. Previous research has proven equivocal with some studies finding protected areas fail conservation objectives and others finding objectives are largely met. The effectiveness of protected area systems within tropical Asia and for insects are particularly under-studied. Using species distribution modeling of 68 butterfly species (15,346 locality records), we carried out an evaluation of the effectiveness of protected areas in Hong Kong, one of the most well-covered (40% land area) protected area systems in the Asian tropics, and projected how the ability to protect biodiversity would change under different climate change scenarios and different conservation target schemes. Under climate change, 15–37% of the modeled species in 2000 were projected to become extirpated by 2050. Under all conservation target schemes, the proportion of species unprotected increased or leveled, by up to as much as 7%. If buffer grids were considered as unprotected, the increase in these gap species was much greater, by up to as much as 22%. These results together indicate that under climate change, the effectiveness of protected areas for butterflies in Hong Kong is likely to decrease despite the territory’s relatively high proportion of protected area coverage. We also highlight here the importance of the fortification of partly protected areas in mediating biodiversity loss under the impacts of global change.     

Are conservation units in the Caatinga biome,Brazil, efficient in the protection of biodiversity? An analysis based on the drosophilid fauna

Biodiversity is believed to be low in regions with vegetation that has adapted to water stress. Additionally, there is little interest by authorities in establishing and expanding conservation units in these areas. In Brazil, the Caatinga and the Cerrado biomes comprise this xerophilous vegetation. In both, climate is tropical and the dry season is long and well-defined. The Caatinga is the Brazilian biome with the smallest area protected by conservation units. This study evaluates the efficacy of conservation units in the Caatinga biome based on abundance and richness of drosophilids. Flies were collected inside and outside these areas. In total, approximately 23,000 flies of 32 species were collected in six conservation and six non-conservation sites. Two non-described species occurred exclusively inside protected areas, underlining the importance of conservation efforts in the maintenance of biodiversity. Other species were recorded exclusively outside conservation areas, which emphasizes the importance of establishing and expanding conservation units in the Caatinga. Native species were significantly more abundant inside conservation units, though the richness was similar in protected and non-protected areas. Abundance of exotic species outside conservation areas was statistically different in comparison with that of native ones.     

Insect diversity in Cape fynbos and neighbouring South African vegetation

Aim  It has often been suggested that South Africa's Cape fynbos shrublands, although extremely rich in plant species, are poor in insects, thus representing a notable exception from the broad plant–insect diversity relationship. The aims of this study were to compare the diversity patterns of plant-inhabiting insects in fynbos and the vegetation of three neighbouring biomes (grassland, subtropical thicket, and Nama-karoo), and to test for a general relationship between plant diversity and insect diversity across these biomes.
Location  South-western to south-eastern South Africa.
Methods  We conducted seasonal plant surveys and sweep insect sampling in 10 × 10 m plots in the Baviaanskloof Conservation Area (Eastern Cape), where all four biomes occur. We also conducted once-only collections in the core area of each biome.
Results  Fynbos plots had insect diversity values similar to those of grassland and subtropical thicket (a dense, evergreen and spinescent shrubland with a high abundance of succulents and climbers), and significantly higher than Nama-karoo (an open, semiarid shrubland). A remarkably strong positive relationship was found between plant and insect species richness.
Main conclusions  Previous generalizations were based on a few insect groups (e.g. butterflies, under-represented in fynbos), but ignored published results on other groups (e.g. galling insects, which are in fact over-represented in this vegetation). We show that, overall, insect diversity in fynbos is comparable to that of neighbouring biomes. Fynbos vegetation does not represent a significant exception from the broad positive relationship between plant diversity and insect diversity.     

Using legumes as indicators in the seasonally dry vegetation types in South America

The South American corridor of seasonally dry vegetation (SACSV) includes different types of physiognomies forming a continuous corridor with high biodiversity and endemism; however, little attention has been paid to the conservation of the SACSV. As this is an area with great diversity, cataloguing all the species is challenging. Thus, we suggest the use of Leguminosae species (trees and shrubs) as bioindicators of the different types of vegetation present in the area and to identify priority areas for conservation of the SACSV, since the family is highly represented in this vegetation. The study area was divided into 358 grid cells with recorded specimens. For each grid cell, species richness, taxonomic diversity, number of species restricted to one type of vegetation, and threatened and indicator species of phytogeographic domain were calculated. To determine the phytogeographic domains and indicator species, analysis of similarity, cluster and indicator species (ISA) were performed. The results show that 43% of the grid cells (154) have high biological importance for conservation (high taxonomic diversity, species richness and number of restricted species), all of which lie outside of protected areas. We identified 72 indicator species for seven floristic units, which, in general, include areas of the same phytogeographic domain, supporting the existing classification systems. We suggest that for effective conservation of biodiversity present in the SACSV, it is necessary to establish protected areas throughout the SACSV.     

Threatened plants of New Caledonia: Is the system of protected areas adequate?

With 76% of its 3063 native species of flora endemic, the New Caledonia biodiversity hotspot has long been recognized as having a high potential for conservation. Under the new IUCN Red List categories, 25% of the endemic plants are at risk (Conservation Dependent, Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered), and five species are already extinct. A review of their distribution demonstrates that 83% of the threatened species do not occur at all in a conservation area, and only 11% have their conservation status improved by a protected area. The protected area network is geographically and floristically very unbalanced, with the rainforest and high altitude maquis in the south concentrating most of the conservation effort. Conversely, the middle and northern segments of the island, as well as all of the dry west coast, are left without adequate conservation area. Two vegetation types, the sclerophyll forest and the unique low/middle altitude maquis, are virtually totally unprotected. We conclude that the current network of protected areas needs to be considerably expanded, in terms of both geographical/floristic subregions within New Caledonia and vegetation type covered. With only 54% of the conservation area covered by strict mining restrictions, existing reserves need to have their conservation efficiency improved by a more vigorous enforcement of their status, and by extending mining bans to all of them.     

Measuring benefits of protected area management: trends across realms and research gaps for freshwater systems

Protected areas remain a cornerstone for global conservation. However, their effectiveness at halting biodiversity decline is not fully understood. Studies of protected area benefits have largely focused on measuring their impact on halting deforestation and have neglected to measure the impacts of protected areas on other threats. Evaluations that measure the impact of protected area management require more complex evaluation designs and datasets. This is the case across realms (terrestrial, freshwater, marine), but measuring the impact of protected area management in freshwater systems may be even more difficult owing to the high level of connectivity and potential for threat propagation within systems (e.g. downstream flow of pollution). We review the potential barriers to conducting impact evaluation for protected area management in freshwater systems. We contrast the barriers identified for freshwater systems to terrestrial systems and discuss potential measurable outcomes and confounders associated with protected area management across the two realms. We identify key research gaps in conducting impact evaluation in freshwater systems that relate to three of their major characteristics: variability, connectivity and time lags in outcomes. Lastly, we use Kakadu National Park world heritage area, the largest national park in Australia, as a case study to illustrate the challenges of measuring impacts of protected area management programmes for environmental outcomes in freshwater systems.     

Geospatial modelling approach for identifying disturbance regimes and biodiversity rich areas in North Western Himalayas, India

The present study is a comprehensive effort for making spatially explicit vegetation type information, one of the basic inputs for species and habitat conservation, readily available to the decision makers, resource managers and nature conservationists. The present study was carried out to understand the vegetation composition and structure in Doda area of Western Himalayas, India. During the study, vegetation types were mapped using on-screen image interpretation technique of multispectral high resolution satellite data. A total of ten types of vegetation were delineated from the satellite data. Phytosociological data was collected for the forest, pasture and scrub classes using nested-quadrat approach to characterize the vegetation. A total of ten phytosociological parameters were analyzed. Pinaceae, Rosaceae and Asteraceae were the dominant plant families with most of the identified plant species having a very high medicinal value. Other important component of the study involved landscape modelling, using the Spatial Landscape Analysis Model for identifying disturbance regimes and biodiversity rich landscapes in the area. The model results indicate that most of the area contains a very rich biodiversity repository with only a few areas showing signs of disturbance where terrain is either complex or where the anthropogenic pressures on forest resources are apparent. The forest and nature conservation managers could use the conservation measures suggested on the basis of these research findings for developing biodiversity conservation strategies in the region.     

Climate change promotes transitions to tall evergreen vegetation in tropical Asia

Vegetation in tropical Asia is highly diverse due to large environmental gradients and heterogeneity of landscapes. This biodiversity is threatened by intense land use and climate change. However, despite the rich biodiversity and the dense human population, tropical Asia is often underrepresented in global biodiversity assessments. Understanding how climate change influences the remaining areas of natural vegetation is therefore highly important for conservation planning. Here, we used the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model version 2 (aDGVM2) to simulate impacts of climate change and elevated CO₂ on vegetation formations in tropical Asia for an ensemble of climate change scenarios. We used climate forcing from five different climate models for representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We found that vegetation in tropical Asia will remain a carbon sink until 2099, and that vegetation biomass increases of up to 28% by 2099 are associated with transitions from small to tall woody vegetation and from deciduous to evergreen vegetation. Patterns of phenology were less responsive to climate change and elevated CO₂ than biomes and biomass, indicating that the selection of variables and methods used to detect vegetation changes is crucial. Model simulations revealed substantial variation within the ensemble, both in biomass increases and in distributions of different biome types. Our results have important implications for management policy, because they suggest that large ensembles of climate models and scenarios are required to assess a wide range of potential future trajectories of vegetation change and to develop robust management plans. Furthermore, our results highlight open ecosystems with low tree cover as most threatened by climate change, indicating potential conflicts of interest between biodiversity conservation in open ecosystems and active afforestation to enhance carbon sequestration.     

北京市自然保护地生态效益及其影响因素

自然保护地是生物多样性丰富区域,发挥着水源涵养、防风固沙等重要的生态效益。北京市共5类79处自然保护地,是首都重要生态屏障,但自然因素和人为干扰对自然保护地生态效益具有重要影响。本文核算了北京自然保护地的5种典型的生态效益,使用单因素方差分析比较了不同类型自然保护地生态效益的差异性,并基于冗余分析法（RDA）探究了2种自然因素（年均气温和年降水量）和4种人为因素（人口密度、建设用地比例、耕地比例和道路密度）对生态效益的影响。结果表明：1）北京自然保护地总体生态效益：北京自然保护地生境质量高,生境质量指数均值高达0.88;其它4项可价值化的生态效益中,水源涵养价值最大,固碳价值最低。2）各类自然保护地之间生态效益比较：除生境质量外,其它4个生态效益的总效益,自然保护地和森林公园显著高于其它3类自然保护地;湿地公园的生境质量显著低于其它4类保护地,而这4类保护地之间生境质量并无显著差异;从水源涵养的生态效益来看,风景名胜区和地质公园显著低于其它3类自然保护地。3）人为干扰因素（影响水平为38.92%）对生态效益的影响程度远高于自然因素（影响水平为16.63%）;防风固沙、水土保持和固碳效益主要受人为干扰影响,而生境质量同时受到自然因素和人为因素的影响,水源涵养则主要受到自然因素的影响。4）基于冗余分析,北京自然保护地可分为3个类群：水源涵养型、高质量栖息地型、其它生态效益型（包括防风固沙、水土保持和固碳）。本研究可为服务于北京保护地管理,提升北京自然保护地的生态效益。     

Potential impacts of climatic change on southern African birds of fynbos and grassland biodiversity hotspots

Aim To examine potential impacts of climatic change on bird species richness of the fynbos and grassland biomes, especially on species of conservation concern, and to consider implications for biodiversity conservation strategy. Location Southern Africa, defined for this study as South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland. Methods Climate response surfaces were fitted to model relationships between recorded distributions and reporting rates of 94 species and current bioclimatic variables. These models were used to project species’ potential ranges and reporting rates for future climatic scenarios derived from three general circulation models for 30‐year periods centred on 2025, 2055 and 2085. Results were summarized for species associated with each biome and examined in detail for 12 species of conservation concern. Results Species richness of fynbos and grassland bird assemblages will potentially decrease by an average of 30–40% by 2085 as a result of projected climatic changes. The areas of greatest richness are projected to decrease in extent and to shift in both cases. Attainment of projected shifts is likely to be limited by extent of untransformed habitat. Most species of conservation concern are projected to decrease in range extent, some by > 60%, and to decrease in reporting rate even where they persist, impacts upon their populations thus being greater than might be inferred from decreases in range extent alone. Two species may no longer have any areas of suitable climatic space by 2055; both already appear to be declining rapidly. Main conclusions Species losses are likely to be widespread with most species projected to decrease in range extent. Loss of key species, such as pollinators, may have far‐reaching implications for ecosystem function and composition. Conservation strategies, and identification of species of conservation concern, need to be informed by such results, notwithstanding the many uncertainties, because the certainties of climatic change make it essential that likely impacts not to be ignored.     

Significant variables for the conservation of mountain invertebrates

Conserving biodiversity on mountains holds particular challenges, with topographic species beta diversity being high. In turn, conserving mountain biodiversity in the heart of a biodiversity hotspot, with intense urbanization on its lower slopes, poses further challenges. We investigate here an iconic mountain at the southern tip of Africa, which is under multiple human pressures, while receiving much conservation attention. We sought here some general principles to guide conservation management of this and other similar mountains. Our focal organisms were surface-active invertebrates, as they are abundant, diverse, and environmentally sensitive at point localities. We show that vegetation structure and elevation were the most important environmental variables determining this diversity. Type of fynbos vegetation, proximity of forest to a river, aspect, and abundance of the alien Argentine ant Linepithema humile, had no significant influence. Suburban woodland species richness and abundance had a non-significant difference to that of natural forest. Fynbos had high species beta diversity of invertebrates, suggesting that large areas of this dominant vegetation type should be conserved. However, many specialist and highly local endemic species were in forest, highlighting the irreplaceability of forest habitats. Such a mountain, with its complex topography, requires total protection, as there is no room for loss of any part of the mountain. We emphasize that, while the upper slope and summit are well protected, the lower slopes are in need of urgent attention, a situation which mirrors that in Europe.     

Change in the woody floristic composition,diversity and structure from protected to unprotected savannahs in Pendjari Biosphere Reserve (Benin,West Africa)

Savannahs are widespread vegetation type in Sudanian zone of Africa. As protected areas are often assumed to be the best way to conserve biodiversity, we assessed the effectiveness of the Pendjari Biosphere Reserve in Benin, for maintaining savannah woody species composition, diversity and structure. Square plots of 900 m² were randomly established in protected and surrounding unprotected savannahs, and all woody species (dbh ≥ 1 cm) were recorded and identified. Species composition, Importance Value Index, densities, basal area and diversity indexes were assessed in relation to conservation status. The results showed that DCA based on presence/absence species data did not separate clearly protected savannahs from unprotected ones. However, some species were prominent in unprotected savannahs while others showed the same scheme in protected ones. Diversity indexes indicated a good distribution of species in the two savannah types. The woody density showed a higher value in protected than unprotected savannah at shrub layer level. The basal area was significantly higher in the protected savannah than unprotected one at the two woody layer levels. It can be concluded that biodiversity conservation in surrounding unprotected areas should be of great importance to increase biodiversity conservation by protected area whether specific actions were implemented.     

Impacts of land-use on West African savanna vegetation: a comparison between protected and communal area in Burkina Faso

Biodiversity matters in many aspects for human well-being by providing timber and non-timber products. The most important ecosystems providing these products in West Africa are savannas. In the context of land-use changes, there is an urgent need to understand the impact of land-use on savanna vegetation and biodiversity. This study assesses the impact of land-use on savannas by comparing protected and communal areas. Vegetation relevés were performed in the W National Park and its surrounding communal area in Burkina Faso. Vegetation types were established using ordination and clustering methods. We analyzed to find which environmental factors determine the occurrence of the vegetation types and whether land-use has a specific effect on diversity of vegetation types occurring in both areas. Furthermore, we tested the effect of land-use on vegetation structure and the occurrence of life forms and highly valued tree species. Our results reveal five vegetation types occurring in both areas. Elevation and soil characteristics played the most important role for the occurrence of the vegetation types. Land-use had an effect on vegetation structure, diversity, and the occurrence of life form and highly valued species. Our findings suggest that traditional human land-use does not automatically lead to loss of species and degradation of savanna habitats and that combination of communal and protected areas may be of great importance for the conservation of broad spectrum of biodiversity. Our study demonstrates the complexity of land-use impact on biodiversity patterns and provides insights on what kind of management activities may be most appropriate in both areas.     

Diversity of mammals in the tropical–temperate Neotropics: hotspots on a regional scale

The tropical–temperate interface of the southern Neotropics harbours an interdigitating array of biomes (Puna, Monte, Chaco, Yungas). This topographic and climatically complex region needs urgent conservation efforts, as it is being transformed by human activities at an accelerating pace. We analyse georeferenced field records of mammal species in northwestern Argentina (provinces: Catamarca, Jujuy, Salta, Tucuman) in order to define biodiversity hotspots on the basis of 0.5°× 0.5° grid cells within northwestern Argentina according to total richness of mammal species, richness of megaspecies (species above 10 kg), and endemic species (species restricted to Argentina or neighbouring countries with shared biomes). The mammal fauna of northwestern Argentina is fairly well known (176 species). The biomes differ considerably in species richness (Puna low, Yungas high) and species composition. We found no significant difference between endemic and non-endemic species regarding cell occupancy or body size. Cell occupancy was not correlated to body size. Across grids, species richness, number of megaspecies as well as richness of endemics are all correlated to sampling effort. More than 50% of the species in the region are restricted to one or two biomes. Overall, the species turn-over between biomes in northwestern Argentina is high. Using a simple algorithm we identified 10 grid cells which covered 90% of the total number of recorded species, and contrast them with the protected areas. While the Puna and Yungas biomes are rather well protected, the arid and semiarid Monte and Chaco are in need of urgent attention in biodiversity conservation.     

Land‐use change outweighs projected effects of changing rainfall on tree cover in sub‐Saharan Africa

Global change will likely affect savanna and forest structure and distributions, with implications for diversity within both biomes. Few studies have examined the impacts of both expected precipitation and land use changes on vegetation structure in the future, despite their likely severity. Here, we modeled tree cover in sub‐Saharan Africa, as a proxy for vegetation structure and land cover change, using climatic, edaphic, and anthropic data (R² = 0.97). Projected tree cover for the year 2070, simulated using scenarios that include climate and land use projections, generally decreased, both in forest and savanna, although the directionality of changes varied locally. The main driver of tree cover changes was land use change; the effects of precipitation change were minor by comparison. Interestingly, carbon emissions mitigation via increasing biofuels production resulted in decreases in tree cover, more severe than scenarios with more intense precipitation change, especially within savannas. Evaluation of tree cover change against protected area extent at the WWF Ecoregion scale suggested areas of high biodiversity and ecosystem services concern. Those forests most vulnerable to large decreases in tree cover were also highly protected, potentially buffering the effects of global change. Meanwhile, savannas, especially where they immediately bordered forests (e.g. West and Central Africa), were characterized by a dearth of protected areas, making them highly vulnerable. Savanna must become an explicit policy priority in the face of climate and land use change if conservation and livelihoods are to remain viable into the next century.