Element fluxes in watershed-lake ecosystems recovering from acidification: Plešné Lake,the Bohemian Forest, 2001–2005

Fluxes of major ions and nutrients were measured in the watershed-lake ecosystem of a strongly acidified lake, Ple?né jezero (Ple?né Lake), in the Czech Republic in hydrological years from 2001 through 2005. The lake is situated in a Norway spruce forest and has a steep watershed between elevations of 1090 and 1378 m. The average water input and output from the ecosystem was 1372 mm and 1157 mm (37 L km^?2 s^?1), respectively, and the water residence time averaged 306 days. Despite ecosystem recovery from acidification occurring since the late 1980s, the Ple?né watershed was an average net source of 25 mmol SO ₄ ^2? m^?2 yr^?1. Nitrogen saturation of the watershed caused low retention of the deposited inorganic N (< 44% on average) before 2004. Then, the watershed became a net source of 28–32 mmol m^?2 yr^?1 of inorganic N in the form of NO ₃ ^? due to climatic effects (a dry summer in 2003 and a cold winter in 2004) and forest dieback caused by a bark beetle attack in 2004. Nitrogen transformations and SO ₄ ^2? release were the dominant terrestrial sources of H⁺ (72 and 49 mmol m^?2 yr^?1, respectively) and the watershed was a net source of 24 mmol H⁺ m^?2 yr^?1. Ionic composition of surface inlets showed seasonal variations, with the most pronounced changes in NO ₃ ^? , ionic Al (Al_i), and DOC concentrations, while the composition of subsurface inlets was more stable. The in-lake biogeochemical processes reduced on average 59% of the incoming H⁺ (251 mmol H⁺ m^?2 yr^?1 on a lake-area basis). NO ₃ ^? assimilation and denitrification, photochemical and microbial decomposition of allochthonous organic acids, and SO ₄ ^2? reduction in the sediments were the most important aquatic H⁺ consuming processes (358, 121, and 59 mmol H⁺ m^?2 yr^?1, respectively), while hydrolysis of Al_i was the dominant in-lake H⁺ generating process (233 mmol H⁺ m^?2 yr^?1). Photochemical liberation from organic complexes was an additional in-lake source of Al_i. The net in-lake retention or removal of total phosphorus, total nitrogen, and silica were on average 50%, 27%, and 23%, respectively. The lake was a net source of NH ₄ ⁺ due to a cease in nitrification (pH < 5) and from NH ₄ ⁺ production by dissimilation exceeding its removal by assimilation.     

Biomass and element pools of understory vegetation in the catchments of Čertovo Lake and Plešné Lake in the Bohemian Forest

This paper presents data on species composition, biomass, and element pools (C, N, P, Ca, Mg, Na, K, Al, Fe, Mn) of the understory vegetation of spruce forests in the catchments of lakes ?ertovo jezero (CT) and Ple?né jezero (PL) in the Bohemian Forest (?umava, Czech Republic). Calamagrostis villosa was the most abundant species in the CT catchment, while Vaccinium myrtillus was the most abundant species in the PL catchment. The catchments weighted mean (CWM) of above-ground biomass of the understory vegetation was 288 and 723 g m^?2 in the CT and PL catchments, respectively. The significant difference in the biomass between the catchments was caused by the much higher abundance of V. myrtillus in the PL catchment. The CWM of below-ground biomass of the fine roots was 491 and 483 g m^?2 in the CT and PL catchments, respectively. The respective CWM element pools of biomass in the CT and PL catchments were: C (33 and 51 mol m^?2), N (0.8 and 1.0 mol m^?2), P (24 and 34 mmol m^?2), Ca (53 and 113 mmol m^?2), Mg (24 and 41mmol m^?2), Na (3.7 and 6.5 mmol m^?2), K (83 and 109 mmol m^?2), Al (50 and 42 mmol m^?2), Fe (13.3 and 7.3 mmol m^?2), and Mn (4.2 and 8.8 mmol m^?2).     

The long-term succession of cladoceran fauna and palaeoclimate forcing: A 14,600-year record from Plešné Lake,the Bohemian Forest

A sediment record of cladoceran remains was analysed in a 543 cm long core from Ple?né jezero (Ple?né Lake), the Bohemian Forest, Czech Republic. The core covered the time period from the Oldest Dryas to the present. Littoral and benthic Cladocera included 11 species of the family Chydoridae while three species (Bosmina longispina, Daphnia cf. pulicaria and D. cf. longispina) lived in the open water. Remains of Alona quadrangularis and Chydrous sphaericus occurred in the oldest sediment layers from the beginning of the Bølling chronozone. Bosmina longispina and Daphnia cf. pulicaria appeared about 400 years later. Inorganic sediment accumulated at a relatively high rate of ～ 90 mg cm^?2 yr^?1 at that time, diluting cladoceran remains and organic matter. Remains of Cladocera accumulated at 0.1 to 0.01 of the Holocene rate, making it difficult to observe effects of climate variation on the species structure of Cladocera in the Late-Glacial. Production of remains increased after warming during the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition at ～11.6 kyr BP, and the proportion of littoral species increased. The most important change in cladoceran fauna occurred at ～10.5 kyr BP and culminated with afforestation of the catchment around 10.3 kyr BP. The domaination of Bosmina longispina lasted for ～250 years. The afforestation occurred concurrently with a decrease in lake water pH. Bosmina longispina and Daphnia cf. pulicaria disappeared, production of cladoceran remains decreased, but biodiversity increased. Planktonic Cladocera were represented by Daphnia cf. longispina during most of the rest of the Holocene. The production of Cladocera never reached the Preboreal level. Since ～ 5 cal. kyr BP, the inferred pH continuously decreased. The final decline was likely caused by cooling during the Little Ice Age and by sulphur emissions from ore smelting. The recent acidification of lake water and impoverishment of aquatic fauna was brought about by emissions of sulphur and nitrogen compounds in the 20^th century.     

Holocene subfossil chironomid stratigraphy (Diptera: Chironomidae) in the sediment of Plešné Lake (the Bohemian Forest,Czech Republic): Palaeoenvironmental implications

A faunal record of chironomid remains was analyzed in the upper 280 cm of a 543 cm long sediment core from Ple?né jezero (Ple?né Lake), the Bohemian Forest (?umava, Böhmerwald), Czech Republic. The chronology of the sediment was established by means of 5 AMS-dated plant macroremains. The resolution of individual 3-cm sediment layers is ～115 years and the analyzed upper 280 cm of the sediment core represent 10.4 cal. ka BP. As the results of DCA show, two marked changes were recorded in the otherwise relatively stable Holocene chironomid composition: (1) at the beginning of the Holocene (ca. 10.4-10.1 cal. ka BP) only oligotrophic and cold-adapted taxa (Diamesa sp., M. insignilobus-type, H. grimshawi-type) were present in the chironomid assemblages, clearly reflecting a cool climate oscillation during the Preboreal period, and (2) during an event dated in the interval 1540–1771 AD, when most taxa vanished entirely and only Zavrelimyia sp. and Procladius sp. were alternately present accompanied by Tanytarsus sp. Although, the age of this event is in agreement with the dating of the Little Ice Age, the most probable reason for the elimination of many chironomid taxa was very low sums recorded in this part of the sediment, rather than cool conditions connected with the LIA. Variations in the chironomid fauna after the Preboreal period were reflected mainly by changes in abundances of dominant taxa rather than by changes in species composition. These variations could be explained by: (1) climatic changes, namely temperature and amount of rainfall resulting in oscillations in lake level, with changes in the occurrence of macrophytes in the littoral and (2) increasingly dense afforestation which led to a considerable input of organic material into the lake and a subsequent increase in the trophic status of the lake water.     

Country,Cover or Protection: What Shapes the Distribution of Red Deer and Roe Deer in the Bohemian Forest Ecosystem?

The Bohemian Forest Ecosystem encompasses various wildlife management systems. Two large, contiguous national parks (one in Germany and one in the Czech Republic) form the centre of the area, are surrounded by private hunting grounds, and hunting regulations in each country differ. Here we aimed at unravelling the influence of management-related and environmental factors on the distribution of red deer (Cervus elaphus) and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) in this ecosystem. We used the standing crop method based on counts of pellet groups, with point counts every 100 m along 218 randomly distributed transects. Our analysis, which accounted for overdispersion as well as zero inflation and spatial autocorrelation, corroborated the view that both human management and the physical and biological environment drive ungulate distribution in mountainous areas in Central Europe. In contrast to our expectations, protection by national parks was the least important variable for red deer and the third important out of four variables for roe deer; protection negatively influenced roe deer distribution in both parks and positively influenced red deer distribution in Germany. Country was the most influential variable for both red and roe deer, with higher counts of pellet groups in the Czech Republic than in Germany. Elevation, which indicates increasing environmental harshness, was the second most important variable for both species. Forest cover was the least important variable for roe deer and the third important variable for red deer; the relationship for roe deer was positive and linear, and optimal forest cover for red deer was about 70% within a 500 m radius. Our results have direct implications for the future conservation management of deer in protected areas in Central Europe and show in particular that large non-intervention zones may not cause agglomerations of deer that could lead to conflicts along the border of protected, mountainous areas.     

Major element fluxes from a coniferous catchment in central Ontario, 1983–1999

Acid deposition over time scales of decades may deplete essential base cation (BC) reserves in soils to the extent that forest health may be affected. In order to assess the nutrient status of soils in central Ontario, input–output budgets for calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), potassium (K) and nitrogen (N) were calculated over a 17-year period (1983–1999) for a coniferous catchment in the Muskoka-Haliburton region. Inputs through deposition and weathering (BCs only), were compared with outputs through stream export and net accumulation in forest biomass. Despite a lack of forest growth at PC1, annual NO₃–N concentrations in the stream were low (<0.1mg/l) over the 17-year period, and over 80% of the atmospheric N input was retained in the catchment, indicating this catchment has not reached N-saturation. Stream export of Mg, and in particular Ca, exceeded input of these elements through deposition and weathering, indicating a net loss from the catchment over the 17-year period. Mass balance calculations indicated there was no net loss of K from the catchment. Soil re-sampling measurements confirmed large losses of Ca, but not Mg, and there were significant decreases in both NaCl-exchangeable Ca concentrations and soil pH between 1983 and 1999. The measured decline in soil Ca concentration amounted to a loss of approximately 85kg/ha Ca from the exchangeable pool over the 17-year period. Similarly, input–output budget calculations indicated a net loss of Ca from the catchment in the range of 76 to 88kg/ha between 1983 and 1999. Although the magnitude of Ca export decreased over the 17-year period, current stream export continues to exceed Ca input through deposition and weathering.     

Diagenetic stoichiometry and benthic nutrient fluxes at the sediment–water interface of Lake Illawarra, Australia

Benthic flux measurements of O₂, TCO₂ and inorganic nutrients were made at three stations (seagrass beds, shallow bare sand and deep mud) in Lake Illawarra (Australia) to compare the characteristics of diagenesis and benthic biogeochemical processes for different primary producers (seagrass or microphytobenthos, (MPB)) and/or sediment types (sand or mud).Seagrass beds exhibited the highest gross primary productivity while the lowest rates occurred at the deep mud station. At the shallow bare sand station only, the gross primary production (GPP) and respiration (R) were balanced, while at the other two stations, R exceeded GPP by as much as 2 fold, indicating more organic carbon was decomposed than produced at the time of sampling. In general, nutrient fluxes displayed typical diurnal variation.Organic carbon oxidation scenarios, evaluated by either calcium carbonate dissolution or sulfate reduction models, indicated that both models can represent organic matter mineralization. The difference of estimated total carbon oxidized in this lake using the two models was small, ranging from 0.2% at deep mud station to maximum of 21% at seagrass station. In addition, N₂ flux rates (net denitrification), estimated using carbon and nitrogen stoichiometry, were of similar magnitude as the rates estimated using LOICZ budget modeling or measured using the N₂/Ar technique.Finally, a comparison of calculated diffusive fluxes and measured fluxes using incubation cores indicated that the results were of similar magnitude at the deep mud station, but the incubation cores fluxes were much higher than the calculated diffusive fluxes at the other two stations. This may have been caused by bioturbation or bioirrigation.     

Differentiation of Nitrogen and Microbial Community in the Sediments from Lake Erhai,Yunnan–Kweichow Plateau,China

Abstract

As a famous plateau lake and a place rich in biodiversity located at the Hengduan Mountains, there is little research on microbial diversity and community composition in Erhai. In this study, 770,425 16S rRNA sequences had obtained at different depth samples. The abundance‐based coverage estimates (ACE), Chao1, and Shannon indices indicated the high abundance and diversity of Erhai sediment microorganisms. And they were obviously affected by human disturbance. Gammaproteobacteria, Deltaproteobacteria, Bacteroidia, Anaerolineae, Phycisphaerae, and Methanomicrobia were dominant bacteria and existed in almost all samples. The content of total nitrogen (TN) in sediments had a significant positive correlation between Syntrophus, Deltaproteobacteria, Desulfatiglans, Oxyphotobacteria, Clostridiales, Burkholderiaceae, Geobacter, Crenothrix species richness. Desulfobacca, Syntrophus, Deltaproteobacteria, Desulfatiglans, Gammaproteobacteria, Oxyphotobacteria, and Clostridiales were positively correlated with the nitrates in sediments. And the species richness of Desulfatiglans was correlated with NO₂ ^-. The RDA analysis was shown that dbRDA1 was affected mainly by the depth of lake, while the content of TN, NO₃ ^?, NO₂ ^?, and NH₄ ⁺ had the largest effect on dbRDA2. The results indicated the great relations between the diversity and composition of microbial communities and different forms of sediment nitrogen in Erhai lake sediments.     

Zooplankton decline in the Černé Lake (Šumava Mountains,Bohemia) as reflected in the stratification of cladoceran remains in the sediment

Stratigraphy of cladoceran remains in the upper 18 cm of a sediment core from the Lake Černé was studied. The successive disappearance of Bosmina longispina, Daphnia longispina and Ceriodaphnia quadrangula from the upper layers of the sediment corresponds with our knowledge concerning the disappearance of these species from the open water.     

Organochlorine and mercury residues in fish from Lake Simcoe,Ontario 1970–76

Synopsis Lake Simcoe located in the central Ontario plain has four major streams draining the watershed. Persistent organochlorine insecticides were used in the basin for mosquito control and agricultural production until restricted. Methyl mercury compounds have been phased out and a voluntary restriction occurred for PCB.Ten species of fish were collected between 1970 and 1976 for organochlorine and mercury analysis. DDT residues significantly declined between 1970 and 1975–76 in all species except small Stizostedion vitreum vitreum and large Salvelinus namaycush. Eggs taken 1975–76 from small S. namaycush had DDT residues below the critical level reported for the production of viable offspring, but this was not so for large members.HEOD residues between 1970 and 1975–76 significantly declined in five species, showed no change in two, whereas in two species the Larger members of one had Lower residues and the smaller members of the other showed no change.PCB residues declined.in all species except the larger Perca flavescens. Chlordane and heptachlor-epoxide were identified in S. namaycush for the first time in 1975–76. Mercury residues showed no change between 1970 and 1975–76 in five species, it declined in two species and increased in small S. v. vitreum.Correlations existed between Levels of organic contaminant and Lipid content of fish especially in the immediate post period of their use. Where the increasing Lipid content was associated with an increasing trophic level a preypredator relationship existed for contaminant accumulations. However, where Lipid contents were Low, no correlation appeared to exist in the prey-predator.     

Restoration of zooplankton in a small acidified mountain lake (Plešné Lake,Bohemian Forest) by reintroduction of key species

Atmospheric acidification brought about the extinction of several species of planktonic Crustacea in lakes of the Bohemian Forest (?umava, Böhmerwald). The recent reversal in chemical parameters of lake water towards pre-acidification values raises the question whether the return of missing species is possible. We have designed a bioassay to test water from different lakes for the survival of Daphnia longispina, which inhabited the lakes under study but disappeared from those most affected by acidification. The bioassay showed the best survival in water from Ple?né Lake, one of those where Daphnia and Cyclops became extinct. A large-scale experiment was conducted by transplanting Daphnia longispina (Crustacea, Cladocera) and Cyclops abyssorum (Crustacea, Copepoda) from Prá?ilské Lake, where they have survived until the present, to Ple?né Lake. One year later, a successful reintroduction was confirmed for Cyclops abyssorum.     

Present–absent: a chronicle of the dinoflagellate Peridinium gatunense from Lake Kinneret

A long-term record dating back to the 1960s indicates that Peridinium gatunense, an armored dinoflagellate, dominated the phytoplankton of Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee, Israel) until the mid-1990s, with a relatively stable spring bloom. However, since 1996, these blooms became irregular, failing to develop in 10 out of the past 16 years. During the later period, a significant correlation (R ² = 0.605, P = 0.013) was found between annual peak P. gatunense biomass and riverine inflow volume. In-lake surveys showed that patches of high P. gatunense densities were associated with water enriched with fresher inflowing Jordan River water. Supplementing laboratory cultures of P. gatunense with Hula Valley water stimulated its growth relative to un-enriched controls. A likely explanation to the recent irregular blooms of this dinoflagellate is a hydrological modification that was made in the catchment in the mid-1990s, preventing Hula Valley water from reaching Lake Kinneret in most years—except for exceptionally wet years. We propose that until the mid-1990s, the Jordan River water enriched Lake Kinneret with a growth factor (a microelement and/or organic compound) originating in the Hula Valley, which in recent years has arrived in sufficient quantities to support a bloom only in high-rainfall years.     

Inorganic nutrient and oxygen fluxes across the sediment–water interface in the inshore macrophyte areas of a shallow estuary (Lake Illawarra,Australia)

Rates of inorganic nutrient and oxygen fluxes, and gross community primary productivity were investigated using incubated cores in July, August and September 2001, in a seagrass meadow of Lake Illawarra, a barrier estuary in New South Wales, Australia. The results indicated that rates of gross primary productivity were high, varying from C = 0.62 to 1.89 g m^–2 d^–1; low P/R ratios of 0.28–0.48 define the system as heterotrophic and indicate that more carbon is respired than is produced. In order to determine the effect of macroalgae on O₂ and nutrient fluxes, measurements were also conducted on cores from which the macroalgae had been removed. The results showed that the O₂ fluxes during light incubations were significantly lower in the cores without macroalgae (P<0.01), indicating that macroalgae could be a significant contributor to the primary production in the lake. In general, nutrient fluxes showed a typical diurnal variation with an efflux from sediments in the dark and a reduced efflux (or uptake) in the light. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen (NO₂ ^–+ NO₃ ^–+NH₄ ⁺) net fluxes were directed from the sediments towards the water column and dominated by the NH₄ ⁺ fluxes (>80%). NO₂ ^–+ NO₃ ^– and o-P fluxes were always very low during the sampling period. The increasing tendency of net nutrient effluxes, especially NH₄ ⁺ from July to September, is consistent with the increase of the water temperature and seagrass biomasses. However, in September, significantly lower light, dark and net NH₄ ⁺ effluxes were found in the cores with macroalgae (SA-sediments) compared with the cores without macroalgae (S-sediments). These results support the hypothesis that actively-growing dense macroalgal mats (i.e., algal blooms in September) may act as a filter reducing the flux of nutrients to the water column.     

Large-scale patterns of Nodularia spumigena blooms in Pyramid Lake,Nevada, determined from Landsat imagery: 1972–1986

Magnitude and long-term periodicity of summer-autumn blooms of the nitrogen-fixing cyanobacterium, Nodularia spumigena, were characterized for hyposaline Pyramid Lake, Nevada, from Landsat MSS band 3 film negatives. Predicted lakewide mean chlorophyll a concentrations for Landsat overpasses during the July–October Nodularia bloom season ranged from 27 to 72 mg m^–3 with an overall average concentration of 32 ± 7 mg m^–3 between 1972 and 1986. Nodularia blooms were usually annual events. Blooms were not observed on Landsat images in only three of 15 years (1973, 1980, 1982) and midsummer calcium carbonate whitings occurred in two of these years (1973, 1980). Magnitude of Nodularia blooms was highly variable among years and very large blooms, where maximum mean chlorophyll a concentration exceeded one standard deviation of the 15 year overall mean (> 39 mg m^–3) appeared in 1974, 1975, 1977, 1979, 1984, 1985 and 1986. Very large early-July blooms always occurred during or following years of above average fluvial discharge to Pyramid Lake (1984–1986) and were associated with meromixis produced by the large influx of freshwater.Several problems arise using Landsat remote sensing to estimate magnitude and periodicity of scum-forming blue-green algal blooms. These complications may reduce accuracy and precision of phytoplankton biomass estimates made from Landsat images. Nevertheless, Landsat remote sensing enabled us to quantify relative bloom magnitude with limited collection of ground-based data and at a large-scale temporal and spatial resolution not possible using alternative methodologies.     

Slowing of the HIV Epidemic in Ukraine: Evidence from Case Reporting and Key Population Surveys, 2005–2012

Background

Ukraine developed Europe''s most severe HIV epidemic due to widespread transmission among persons who inject drugs (PWID). Since 2004, prevention has focused on key populations; antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage has increased. Recent data show increases in reported HIV cases through 2011, especially attributed to sexual transmission, but also signs of potential epidemic slowing. We conducted a data triangulation exercise to better analyze available data and inform program implementation.

Methods and Findings

We reviewed data for 2005 to 2012 from multiple sources, primarily national HIV case reporting and integrated biobehavioral surveillance (IBBS) studies among key populations. Annually reported HIV cases increased at a progressively slower rate through 2011 with recent increases only among older, more immunosuppressed individuals; cases decreased 2.7% in 2012. Among women <25 years of age, cases attributed to heterosexual transmission and HIV prevalence in antenatal screening declined after 2008. Reported cases among young PWID declined by three-fourths. In 2011, integrated biobehavioral surveillance demonstrated decreased HIV prevalence among young members of key populations compared with 2009. HIV infection among female sex workers (FSW) remains strongly associated with a personal history of injecting drug use (IDU).

Conclusions

This analysis suggests that Ukraine''s HIV epidemic has slowed, with decreasing reported cases and older cases predominating among those diagnosed. Recent decreases in cases and in prevalence support decreased incidence among young PWID and women. Trends among heterosexual men and men who have sex with men (MSM) are less clear; further study and enhanced MSM prevention are needed. FSW appear to have stable prevalence with risk strongly associated with IDU. Current trends suggest the Ukrainian epidemic can be contained with enhanced prevention among key populations and increased treatment access.     

Restoration goals: Why are fauna still overlooked in the process of recovering functioning ecosystems and what can be done about it?

Despite the evidence that fauna play complex and critical roles in ecosystems (e.g. pollination and nutrient cycling) and the knowledge that they need to be considered in restoration, fauna often remain poorly represented in restoration goal setting, monitoring and assessments of restoration success. Fauna clearly are integral to the aspirations of achieving full ecosystem recovery. However, over‐reaching assumptions about the unassisted return of fauna to restored sites, low investment in fauna monitoring, and minimal consideration of the requirements for fauna monitoring in regulatory guidance and standards appear to have led to the historically vegetation‐centric approaches to rehabilitation and ecological restoration. We argue that ecological complexities render assumptions of unassisted fauna return inappropriate in many situations and may represent a missed opportunity to enhance ecological outcomes and improve restoration trajectories. We advocate for greater consideration of fauna as facilitators of ecological restoration and, particularly for well‐funded projects, for monitoring to place greater emphasis on examining the behaviour and resilience of restored fauna communities. There is a clear need for both industry and regulators to recognise that fauna can be crucial facilitators of restoration and appreciate that the return and monitoring of functional faunal communities can be costly, challenging and may require detailed study across a wide range of taxonomic groups. Failure to advance from business as usual models may risk leaving a legacy of ostensibly functional, but biodiversity‐depauperate, restored ecosystems.     

Seasonal and annual variability in the phytoplankton community of the Raunefjord,west coast of Norway from 2001–2006

Changes in phytoplankton community composition potentially affect the entire marine food web. Because of seasonal cycles and inter-annual variations in species composition, long-term monitoring, covering many sequential years, is required to establish a baseline study and to reveal long-term trends. The current study describes the phytoplankton biomass variations and species composition in relation to hydrographic and meteorological conditions in the Raunefjord, western Norway, over a 6-year period from 2001 to 2006. The extent of inflow or upwelling in the fjord varied from year to year and resulted in pronounced differences in water column stability. The annual phytoplankton community succession showed some repeated seasonal patterns, but also high variability between years. Two to four diatom blooms were observed per year, and the spring blooms occurring before water column stratification in March were dominated by Skeletonema marinoi and Chaetoceros socialis, and other Chaetoceros and Thalassiosira spp. Blooms of the haptophytes Phaeocystis pouchetii and Emiliania huxleyi were irregular and in some years totally absent. Although E. huxleyi was present all year round it appeared in bloom concentrations only in 2003, when the summer was warm and the water column characterized by high surface temperatures and pronounced stratification. The annual average abundance of both diatoms and flagellates increased during the six years. Despite the high variation from year to year, our investigation provides valuable knowledge about annual phytoplankton community patterns in the region, and can be used as a reference to detect possible future changes.     

Time-Specific Ecologic Niche Models Forecast the Risk of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Dongting Lake District,China, 2005–2010

Background

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodent-borne infectious disease, is one of the most serious public health threats in China. Increasing our understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of HFRS infections could guide local prevention and control strategies.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We employed statistical models to analyze HFRS case data together with environmental data from the Dongting Lake district during 2005–2010. Specifically, time-specific ecologic niche models (ENMs) were used to quantify and identify risk factors associated with HFRS transmission as well as forecast seasonal variation in risk across geographic areas. Results showed that the Maximum Entropy model provided the best predictive ability (AUC = 0.755). Time-specific Maximum Entropy models showed that the potential risk areas of HFRS significantly varied across seasons. High-risk areas were mainly found in the southeastern and southwestern areas of the Dongting Lake district. Our findings based on models focused on the spring and winter seasons showed particularly good performance. The potential risk areas were smaller in March, May and August compared with those identified for June, July and October to December. Both normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land use types were found to be the dominant risk factors.

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings indicate that time-specific ENMs provide a useful tool to forecast the spatial and temporal risk of HFRS.     

Closing the rural-urban gap in child malnutrition: Evidence from Paraguay, 1997–2012

Between 1997 and 2012, Paraguay achieved not only remarkable improvements in child nutrition, but also a surprising elimination of the rural-urban differential in child height-for-age Z score (HAZ) and stunting. Our decomposition analysis, applied to four rounds of Paraguayan National Household Surveys, allows us to directly infer not only the contributions of changes in determinants of child nutritional status to the improvements in child nutritional status in rural and urban areas, but also their contribution to closing the rural-urban gap. We find that while common determinants of child nutritional status such as income, maternal education, sanitation, and access to piped water are strongly associated with improvements in child nutrition, they have contributed little to reducing the rural-urban gap (10%, p < 0.05). Improvements in health care utilization, family planning, and demographics have been the main drivers in closing the rural-urban gap in child nutritional status in Paraguay (32%, p < 0.05). The results highlight the potential need for multipronged nutritional strategies that consider the distinct needs of rural and urban communities.