Differing Methods and Definitions Influence DALY estimates: Using Population-Based Data to Calculate the Burden of Convulsive Epilepsy in Rural South Africa

Background

The disability adjusted life year (DALY) is a composite measure of disease burden that includes both morbidity and mortality, and is relevant to conditions such as epilepsy that can limit productive functioning. The 2010 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study introduced a number of new methods and definitions, including a prevalence-based approach and revised disability weights to calculate morbidity and new standard life expectancies to calculate premature mortality. We used these approaches, and local, population-based data, to estimate the burden of convulsive epilepsy in rural South Africa.

Methods & Findings

Comprehensive prevalence, incidence and mortality data on convulsive epilepsy were collected within the Agincourt sub-district in rural northeastern South Africa between 2008 and 2012. We estimated DALYs using both prevalence- and incidence-based approaches for calculating years of life lived with disability. Additionally, we explored how changing the disease model by varying the disability weights influenced DALY estimates. Using the prevalence-based approach, convulsive epilepsy in Agincourt resulted in 332 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 216–455) and 4.1 DALYs per 1,000 individuals (95%UI: 2.7–5.7) annually. Of this, 26% was due to morbidity while 74% was due to premature mortality. DALYs increased by 10% when using the incidence-based method. Varying the disability weight from 0.072 (treated epilepsy, seizure free) to 0.657 (severe epilepsy) caused years lived with disability to increase from 18 (95%UI: 16–19) to 161 (95%UI: 143–170).

Conclusions

DALY estimates are influenced by both the methods applied and population parameters used in the calculation. Irrespective of method, a significant burden of epilepsy is due to premature mortality in rural South Africa, with a lower burden than rural Kenya. Researchers and national policymakers should carefully interrogate the methods and data used to calculate DALYs as this will influence policy priorities and resource allocation.     

Mortality amongst Patients with Influenza-Associated Severe Acute Respiratory Illness,South Africa, 2009-2013

Introduction

Data on the burden and risk groups for influenza-associated mortality from Africa are limited. We aimed to estimate the incidence and risk-factors for in-hospital influenza-associated severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) deaths.

Methods

Hospitalised patients with SARI were enrolled prospectively in four provinces of South Africa from 2009–2013. Using polymerase chain reaction, respiratory samples were tested for ten respiratory viruses and blood for pneumococcal DNA. The incidence of influenza-associated SARI deaths was estimated at one urban hospital with a defined catchment population.

Results

We enrolled 1376 patients with influenza-associated SARI and 3% (41 of 1358 with available outcome data) died. In patients with available HIV-status, the case-fatality proportion (CFP) was higher in HIV-infected (5%, 22/419) than HIV-uninfected individuals (2%, 13/620; p = 0.006). CFPs varied by age group, and generally increased with increasing age amongst individuals >5 years (p<0.001). On multivariable analysis, factors associated with death were age-group 45–64 years (odds ratio (OR) 4.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01–16.3) and ≥65 years (OR 6.5, 95%CI 1.2–34.3) compared to 1–4 year age-group who had the lowest CFP, HIV-infection (OR 2.9, 95%CI 1.1–7.8), underlying medical conditions other than HIV (OR 2.9, 95%CI 1.2–7.3) and pneumococcal co-infection (OR 4.1, 95%CI 1.5–11.2). The estimated incidence of influenza-associated SARI deaths per 100,000 population was highest in children <1 year (20.1, 95%CI 12.1–31.3) and adults aged 45–64 years (10.4, 95%CI 8.4–12.9). Adjusting for age, the rate of death was 20-fold (95%CI 15.0–27.8) higher in HIV-infected individuals than HIV-uninfected individuals.

Conclusion

Influenza causes substantial mortality in urban South Africa, particularly in infants aged <1 year and HIV-infected individuals. More widespread access to antiretroviral treatment and influenza vaccination may reduce this burden.     

Risk Factors and Disability Associated with Low Back Pain in Older Adults in Low- and Middle-Income Countries. Results from the WHO Study on Global AGEing and Adult Health (SAGE)

Background

Back pain is a common disabling chronic condition that burdens individuals, families and societies. Epidemiological evidence, mainly from high-income countries, shows positive association between back pain prevalence and older age. There is an urgent need for accurate epidemiological data on back pain in adult populations in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where populations are ageing rapidly. The objectives of this study are to: measure the prevalence of back pain; identify risk factors and determinants associated with back pain, and describe association between back pain and disability in adults aged 50 years and older, in six LMICs from different regions of the world. The findings provide insights into country-level differences in self-reported back pain and disability in a group of socially, culturally, economically and geographically diverse LMICs.

Methods

Standardized national survey data collected from adults (50 years and older) participating in the World Health Organization (WHO) Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE) were analysed. The weighted sample (n = 30, 146) comprised respondents in China, Ghana, India, Mexico, South Africa and the Russian Federation. Multivariable regressions describe factors associated with back pain prevalence and intensity, and back pain as a determinant of disability.

Results

Prevalence was highest in the Russian Federation (56%) and lowest in China (22%). In the pooled multi-country analyses, female sex, lower education, lower wealth and multiple chronic morbidities were significant in association with past-month back pain (p<0.01). About 8% of respondents reported that they experienced intense back pain in the previous month.

Conclusions

Evidence on back pain and its impact on disability is needed in developing countries so that governments can invest in cost-effective education and rehabilitation to reduce the growing social and economic burden imposed by this disabling condition.     

Care Needs and Clinical Outcomes of Older People with Dementia: A Population-Based Propensity Score-Matched Cohort Study

Objective

To explore the healthcare resource utilization, psychotropic drug use and mortality of older people with dementia.

Design

A nationwide propensity score-matched cohort study.

Setting

National Health Insurance Research database.

Participants

A total of 32,649 elderly people with dementia and their propensity-score matched controls (n=32,649).

Measurements

Outpatient visits, inpatient care, psychotropic drug use, in-hospital mortality and all-cause mortality at 90 and 365 days.

Results

Compared to the non-dementia group, a higher proportion of patients with dementia used inpatient services (1 year after index date: 20.91% vs. 9.55%), and the dementia group had more outpatient visits (median [standard deviation]: 7.00 [8.87] vs. 3.00 [8.30]). Furthermore, dementia cases with acute admission had the highest psychotropic drug utilization both at baseline and at the post-index dates (difference-in-differences: all <0.001). Dementia was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (90 days, Odds ratio (OR)=1.85 [95%CI 1.67-2.05], p<0.001; 365 days, OR=1.59 [1.50-1.69], p<0.001) and in-hospital mortality (90 days, OR=1.97 [1.71-2.27], p<0.001; 365 days, OR=1.82 [1.61-2.05], p<0.001) compared to matched controls.

Conclusions

When older people with dementia are admitted for acute illnesses, they may increase their use of psychotropic agents and their risk of death, particularly in-hospital mortality.     

HIV Incidence Prior to,during, and after Violent Conflict in 36 Sub-Saharan African Nations, 1990-2012: An Ecological Study

Objectives

The aim of this study was to determine the association between violent conflict and HIV incidence within and across 36 sub-Saharan Africa countries between 1990 and 2012.

Methods

We used generalized linear mixed effect modeling to estimate the effect of conflict periods on country-level HIV incidence. We specified random intercepts and slopes to account for across and within country variation over time. We also conducted a sub-analysis of countries who experienced conflict to assess the effect of conflict intensity on country-level HIV incidence. All models controlled for level of economic development, number of refugees present in the country, and year.

Results

We found that, compared to times of peace, the HIV incidence rate increased by 2.1 per 1000 infections per year (95%CI: 0.39, 3.87) in the 5 years prior to conflict. Additionally, we found a decrease of 0.7 new infections per 1000 people per year (95%CI: -1.44, -0.01) in conflicts with 25 to 1000 battle-related deaths and a decrease of 1.5 new infections per 1000 people per year (95%CI:-2.50, -0.52) for conflict with more than 1000 battle-related deaths, compared to conflicts with less than 25 battle-related deaths

Conclusions

Our results demonstrate that HIV infection rates increase in the years immediately prior to times of conflict; however, we did not identify a significant increase during and immediately following periods of violent conflict. Further investigation, including more rigorous data collection, is needed, as is increased aid to nations at risk of violent conflict to help in the fight against HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa.     

Tobacco Stained Fingers and Its Association with Death and Hospital Admission: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Among smokers, the presence of tobacco stains on fingers has recently been associated with a high prevalence of tobacco related conditions and alcohol abuse.

Objective

we aimed to explore tobacco stains as a marker of death and hospital readmission.

Method

Seventy-three smokers presenting tobacco-tar staining on their fingers and 70 control smokers were followed during a median of 5.5 years in a retrospective cohort study. We used the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and the log-rank test to compare mortality and hospital readmission rates among smokers with and smokers without tobacco stains. Multivariable Cox models were used to adjust for confounding factors: age, gender, pack-year unit smoked, cancer, harmful alcohol use and diabetes. The number of hospital admissions was compared through a negative binomial regression and adjusted for the follow-up time, diabetes, and alcohol use.

Results

Forty-three patients with tobacco-stained fingers died compared to 26 control smokers (HR 1.6; 95%CI: 1.0 to 2.7; p 0.048). The association was not statistically significant after adjustment. Patients with tobacco-stained fingers needed a readmission earlier than smokers without stains (HR 2.1; 95%CI: 1.4 to 3.1; p<0.001), and more often (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.6; 95%CI: 1.1 to 2.1). Associations between stains and the first hospital readmission (HR 1.6; 95%CI: 1.0 to 2.5), and number of readmissions (IRR 1.5; 95%CI: 1.1 to 2.1) persisted after adjustment for confounding factors.

Conclusions

Compared to other smokers, those presenting tobacco-stained fingers have a high unadjusted mortality rate and need early and frequent hospital readmission even when controlling for confounders.     

Socioeconomic Position,Type 2 Diabetes and Long-Term Risk of Death

Background

Both socioeconomic position (SEP) and type 2 diabetes have previously been found to be associated with mortality; however, little is known about the association between SEP, type 2 diabetes and long-term mortality when comorbidity is taken into account.

Methods

We conducted a population-based cohort study of all Danish citizens aged 40-69 years with no history of diabetes during 2001-2006 (N=2,330,206). The cohort was identified using nationwide registers, and it was followed for up to 11 years (mean follow-up was 9.5 years (SD: 2.6)). We estimated the age-standardised mortality rate (MR) and performed Poisson regression to estimate the mortality-rate-ratio (MRR) by educational level, income and cohabiting status among people with and without type 2 diabetes.

Results

We followed 2,330,206 people for 22,971,026 person-years at risk and identified 139,681 individuals with type 2 diabetes. In total, 195,661 people died during the study period; 19,959 of these had type 2 diabetes. The age-standardised MR increased with decreasing SEP both for people with and without diabetes. Type 2 diabetes and SEP both had a strong impact on the overall mortality; the combined effect of type 2 diabetes and SEP on mortality was additive rather than multiplicative. Compared to women without diabetes and in the highest income quintile, the MRR’s were 2.8 (95%CI 2.6, 3.0) higher for women with type 2 diabetes in the lowest income quintile, while diabetes alone increased the risk of mortality 2.0 (95%CI 1.9, 2.2) times and being in the lowest income quintile without diabetes 1.8 (95%CI 1.7,1.9) times after adjusting for comorbidity. For men, the MRR’s were 2.7 (95%CI 2.5,2.9), 1.9 (95%CI 1.8,2.0) and 1.8 (95%CI 1.8,1.9), respectively.

Conclusion

Both Type 2 diabetes and SEP were associated with the overall mortality. The relation between type 2 diabetes, SEP, and all-cause mortality was only partly explained by comorbidity.     

Adjunctive Corticotherapy for Community Acquired Pneumonia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) induces lung and systemic inflammation, leading to high morbidity and mortality. We systematically reviewed the risks and benefits of adjunctive corticotherapy in the management of patients with CAP.

Methods

We systematically searched Pubmed, Embase and the Cochrane Library for randomized controlled trials comparing adjunctive corticotherapy and antimicrobial therapy with antimicrobial therapy alone in patients with CAP. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes were length of hospital stay, time to clinical stability and severe complications.

Results

14 trials (2077 patients) were included. The reported 30-day mortality was 7.9% (80/1018) among patients treated with adjunctive corticotherapy versus 8.3% (85/1028) among patients treated with antimicrobial therapy alone (RR 0.84; 95%CI 0.55 to1.29). Adjunctive corticotherapy was associated with a reduction of severe complications (RR 0.36; 95%CI 0.23 to 0.56), a shorter length of stay (9.0 days; 95%CI 7.6 to 10.7 vs 10.6 days; 95%CI 7.4 to 15.3) and a shorter time to clinical stability (3.3 days; 95% CI 2.8 to 4.1 vs 4.3 days; 95%CI 3.6 to 5.1). The risk of hyperglycemia was higher among patients treated with adjunctive corticotherapy (RR 1.59; 95%CI 1.06 to 2.38), whereas the risk of gastro-intestinal bleeding was similar (RR 0.83; 95%CI 0.35 to 1.93). In the subgroup analysis based on CAP severity, a survival benefit was found among patients with severe CAP (RR 0.47; 95%CI 0.23 to 0.96).

Conclusion

Adjunctive corticotherapy is associated with a reduction of length of stay, time to clinical stability, and severe complications among patients with CAP, but the effect on mortality remains uncertain.     

Burden of Invasive Group B Streptococcus Disease and Early Neurological Sequelae in South African Infants

Introduction

Group B Streptococcus (GBS) is a leading cause of neonatal sepsis and meningitis. We aimed to evaluate the burden of invasive early-onset (0–6 days of life, EOD) and late-onset (7–89 days, LOD) GBS disease and subsequent neurological sequelae in infants from a setting with a high prevalence (29.5%) of HIV among pregnant women.

Methods

A case-control study was undertaken at three secondary-tertiary care public hospitals in Johannesburg. Invasive cases in infants <3 months age were identified by surveillance of laboratories from November 2012 to February 2014. Neurodevelopmental screening was done in surviving cases and controls at 3 and 6 months of age.

Results

We identified 122 cases of invasive GBS disease over a 12 month period. Although the incidence (per 1,000 live births) of EOD was similar between HIV-exposed and HIV-unexposed infants (1.13 vs. 1.46; p = 0.487), there was a 4.67-fold (95%CI: 2.24–9.74) greater risk for LOD in HIV-exposed infants (2.27 vs. 0.49; p<0.001). Overall, serotypes Ia, Ib and III constituted 75.8% and 92.5% of EOD and LOD, respectively. Risk factors for EOD included offensive draining liquor (adjusted Odds Ratio: 27.37; 95%CI: 1.94–386.50) and maternal GBS bacteriuria (aOR: 8.41; 95%CI: 1.44–49.15), which was also a risk-factor for LOD (aOR: 3.49; 95%CI: 1.17–10.40). The overall case fatality rate among cases was 18.0%. The adjusted odds for neurological sequelae at 6 months age was 13.18-fold (95%CI: 1.44–120.95) greater in cases (13.2%) than controls (0.4%).

Discussion

The high burden of invasive GBS disease in South Africa, which is also associated with high case fatality rates and significant neurological sequelae among survivors, is partly due to the heightened risk for LOD in infants born to HIV-infected women. An effective trivalent GBS conjugate vaccine targeted at pregnant women could prevent invasive GBS disease in this setting.     

Sensitivity and Specificity of a Novel Classifier for the Early Diagnosis of Dengue

Background

Dengue is the commonest arboviral disease of humans. An early and accurate diagnosis of dengue can support clinical management, surveillance and disease control and is central to achieving the World Health Organisation target of a 50% reduction in dengue case mortality by 2020.

Methods

5729 children with fever of <72hrs duration were enrolled into this multicenter prospective study in southern Vietnam between 2010-2012. A composite of gold standard diagnostic tests identified 1692 dengue cases. Using statistical methods, a novel Early Dengue Classifier (EDC) was developed that used patient age, white blood cell count and platelet count to discriminate dengue cases from non-dengue cases.

Results

The EDC had a sensitivity of 74.8% (95%CI: 73.0-76.8%) and specificity of 76.3% (95%CI: 75.2-77.6%) for the diagnosis of dengue. As an adjunctive test alongside NS1 rapid testing, sensitivity of the composite test was 91.6% (95%CI: 90.4-92.9%).

Conclusions

We demonstrate that the early diagnosis of dengue can be enhanced beyond the current standard of care using a simple evidence-based algorithm. The results should support patient management and clinical trials of specific therapies.     

Determinants of Performance of Health Systems Concerning Maternal and Child Health: A Global Approach

Aims

To assess the association of social determinants on the performance of health systems around the world.

Methods

A transnational ecological study was conducted with an observation level focused on the country. In order to research on the strength of the association between the annual maternal and child mortality in 154 countries and social determinants: corruption, democratization, income inequality and cultural fragmentation, we used a mixed linear regression model for repeated measures with random intercepts and a conglomerate-based geographical analysis, between 2000 and 2010.

Results

Health determinants with a significant association on child mortality(<1year): higher access to water (βa Quartile 4(Q4) vs Quartile 1(Q1) = -6,14; 95%CI: -11,63 to -0,73), sanitation systems, (Q4 vs Q1 = -25,58; 95%CI: -31,91 to -19,25), % measles vaccination coverage (Q4 vs Q1 = -7.35; 95%CI: -10,18 to -4,52), % of births attended by a healthcare professional (Q4 vs Q1 = -7,91; 95%CI: -11,36 to -4,52) and a % of the total health expenditure (Q3 vs Q1 = -2,85; 95%CI: -4,93 to -0,7). Ethnic fragmentation (Q4 vs Q1 = 9,93; 95%CI: -0.03 to 19.89) had a marginal effect. For child mortality<5 years, an association was found for these variables and democratization (not free vs free = 11,23; 95%CI: -0,82 to 23,29), out-of-pocket expenditure (Q1 vs Q4 = 17,71; 95%CI: 5,86 to 29,56). For MMR (Maternal mortality ratio), % of access to water for all the quartiles, % of access to sanitation systems, (Q3 vs Q1 = -171,15; 95%CI: -281,29 to -61), birth attention by a healthcare professional (Q4 vs Q1 = -231,23; 95%CI: -349,32 to -113,15), and having corrupt government (Q3 vs Q1 = 83,05; 95%CI: 33,10 to 133).

Conclusions

Improving access to water and sanitation systems, decreasing corruption in the health sector must become priorities in health systems. The ethno-linguistic cultural fragmentation and the detriment of democracy turn out to be two factors related to health results.     

High HIV Prevalence among Asylum Seekers Who Gave Birth in the Netherlands: A Nationwide Study Based on Antenatal HIV Tests

Objectives

Asylum seekers are considered to be a particularly vulnerable group with respect to HIV. Data on the HIV prevalence among asylum seekers, however, are scarce. The aim of this study is to map the HIV prevalence among asylum seekers who gave birth in The Netherlands.

Methods

We used a nationwide electronic medical records database from the community health services for asylum seekers (MOA). The study population consisted of 4,854 women and girls who delivered in asylum reception between 2000 and 2008. A unique electronic health data base was used and case allocation was based on ICPC-codes.

Results

The number of women and girls that was HIV positive during their last pregnancy was 80, of which 79 originated from sub-Saharan Africa. The prevalence for women from this region of origin (3.4%) was high compared to women from all other regions of origin (0.04%; OR = 90.2; 95%CI 12.5–648.8). The highest HIV prevalence rates were found for women from Rwanda (17.0%) and Cameroon (13.2%). HIV prevalence rates were higher among women who arrived in reception without partner (OR = 1.82; 95%CI 0.75–4.44) and unaccompanied minors (OR = 2.59; 95%CI 0.79–8.49), compared to women who arrived in reception with partner.

Conclusions

We conclude that, among asylum-seeking women from sub-Saharan Africa giving birth in The Netherlands, the HIV prevalence is high compared to the host population. For women from other regions of origin, the prevalence is at the same level as in the host population. The high HIV prevalence underlines the importance of preventive interventions and voluntary HIV testing for sub-Saharan African asylum seekers as from shortly after arrival.     

Association between the AUC0-24/MIC Ratio of Vancomycin and Its Clinical Effectiveness: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

A target AUC_0-24/MIC ratio of 400 has been associated with its clinical success when treating Staphylococcus aureus infections but is not currently supported by state-of-the-art evidence-based research.

Objective

This current systematic review aimed to evaluate the available evidence for the association between the AUC_0-24/MIC ratio of vancomycin and its clinical effectiveness on hospitalized patients and to confirm the existing target value of 400.

Methods

PubMed, Embase, Web of Sciences, the Cochrane Library and two Chinese literature databases (CNKI, CBM) were systematically searched. Manual searching was also applied. Both RCTs and observational studies comparing the clinical outcomes of high AUC_0-24/MIC groups versus low AUC_0-24/MIC groups were eligible. Two reviewers independently extracted the data. The primary outcomes were mortality and infection treatment failure. Risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) were calculated.

Results

No RCTs were retrieved. Nine cohort studies were included in the meta-analysis. Mortality rates were significantly lower in high AUC_0-24/MIC groups (RR = 0.47, 95%CI = 0.31–0.70, p<0.001). The rates of infection treatment failure were also significantly lower in high AUC/MIC groups and were consistent after correcting for heterogeneity (RR = 0.39, 95%CI = 0.28–0.55, p = 0.001). Subgroup analyses showed that results were consistent whether MIC values were determined by broth microdilution (BMD) method or Etest method. In studies using the BMD method, breakpoints of AUC_0-24/MIC all fell within 85% to 115% of 400.

Conclusions

This meta-analysis demonstrated that achieving a high AUC_0-24/MIC of vancomycin could significantly decrease mortality rates by 53% and rates of infection treatment failure by 61%, with 400 being a reasonable target.     

Estimating Influenza Deaths in Canada, 1992–2009

Background

Poisson regression modelling has been widely used to estimate the disease burden attributable to influenza, though not without concerns that some of the excess burden could be due to other causes. This study aims to provide annual estimates of the mortality and hospitalization burden attributable to both seasonal influenza and the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza for Canada, and to discuss issues related to the reliability of these estimates.

Methods

Weekly time-series for all-cause mortality and regression models were used to estimate the number of deaths in Canada attributable to influenza from September 1992 to December 2009. To assess their robustness, the annual estimates derived from different parameterizations of the regression model for all-cause mortality were compared. In addition, the association between the annual estimates for mortality and hospitalization by age group, underlying cause of death or primary reason for admission and discharge status is discussed.

Results

The crude influenza-attributed mortality rate based on all-cause mortality and averaged over 17 influenza seasons prior to the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was 11.3 (95%CI, 10.5 - 12.1) deaths per 100 000 population per year, or an average of 3,500 (95%CI, 3,200 - 3,700) deaths per year attributable to seasonal influenza. The estimated annual rates ranged from undetectable at the ecological level to more than 6000 deaths per year over the three A/Sydney seasons. In comparison, we attributed an estimated 740 deaths (95%CI, 350–1500) to A(H1N1)pdm09. Annual estimates from different model parameterizations were strongly correlated, as were estimates for mortality and morbidity; the higher A(H1N1)pdm09 burden in younger age groups was the most notable exception.

Interpretation

With the exception of some of the Serfling models, differences in the ecological estimates of the disease burden attributable to influenza were small in comparison to the variation in disease burden from one season to another.     

The Association of Maternal Lifestyle with Birth Defects in Shaanxi Province,Northwest China

Background

The main objective was to investigate the burden of birth defects among alive infants and explore the impact of maternal lifestyle during pregnancy on the burden of birth defects in Northwest China.

Methods

A stratified multi-stage sampling method was used to study infants born during 2010–2013 (and their mothers) in Shaanxi province of Northwest China. Socio-demographic information was collected using a structured questionnaire, and medical records from the local hospitals were used to determine the final diagnosis of birth defects. Poisson regression analysis was performed to assess the association between maternal lifestyles during pregnancy and the burden of birth defects, while adjusting for potential confounders.

Results

We sampled 29098 infants, of whom 629 (i.e. 216.17 per 10000) were observed to have congenital defects. Cardiovascular system defects (77.32 per 10000) were found to be the most common. Mothers who had ever consumed alcohol during pregnancy were found to have infants with a higher prevalence of some categories of birth defects, including nervous system (Prevalence Rate Ratio, PRR:14.67, 95%CI:1.94, 110.92), cardiovascular system (PRR:3.22, 95%CI: 1.02, 10.16) and oral clefts (PRR:9.02, 95%CI: 2.08, 39.10) in contrast to infants of mothers without any alcohol consumption. Maternal passive smoking during pregnancy lead to the increased burden of malformations of eye, ear, face and neck (PRR:1.95, 95%CI:1.15, 3.33), cardiovascular system (PRR:1.70, 95%CI: 1.25, 2.31) and respiratory system (PRR:9.94, 95%CI: 2.37, 41.76) in their newborns. Further, tea or coffee consumption during pregnancy was positively correlated with the burden of specific birth defects, such as cardiovascular system (PRR: 2.44, 95%CI: 1.33, 4.46) and genital organs (PRR:14.72, 95%CI: 1.87, 116.11) among infants.

Conclusions

The prevalence of birth defects was high in Shaanxi province of Northwest China. The unhealthy lifestyles of mothers during pregnancy may increase the prevalence of congenital malformations. These findings in future may have some important implications for prevention of birth defects in Northwest China.     

Association between Antibiotic Prescribing in Pregnancy and Cerebral Palsy or Epilepsy in Children Born at Term: A Cohort Study Using The Health Improvement Network

Background

Between 19%-44% pregnant women are prescribed antibiotics during pregnancy. A single, large randomised-controlled-trial (ORACLE Childhood Study II) found an increased risk of childhood cerebral palsy and possibly epilepsy following prophylactic antibiotic use in pregnant women with spontaneous preterm labour. We ascertained whether this outcome could be reproduced across the population of babies delivered at term and prospectively followed in primary-care using data from The Health Improvement Network.

Methods

We determined the risk of cerebral palsy or epilepsy in children whose mothers were prescribed antibiotics during pregnancy using a cohort of 195,909 women linked to their live, term-born, singleton children. We compared the effect of antibiotic class, number of courses and timing of prescribing in pregnancy. Analyses were adjusted for maternal risk factors (e.g. recorded infection, age, chronic conditions, social deprivation, smoking status). Children were followed until age seven years or cessation of registration with the primary-care practitioner.

Results

In total, 64,623 (33.0%) women were prescribed antibiotics in pregnancy and 1,170 (0.60%) children had records indicating cerebral palsy or epilepsy. Adjusted analyses showed no association between prescribing of any antibiotic and cerebral palsy or epilepsy (adj.HR 1.04, 95%CI 0.91–1.19). However, compared with penicillins, macrolides were associated with an increased risk of cerebral palsy or epilepsy (adj.HR 1.78, 95%CI 1.18–2.69; number needed to harm 153, 95%CI 71–671).

Conclusions

We found no overall association between antibiotic prescribing in pregnancy and cerebral palsy and/or epilepsy in childhood. However, our finding of an increased risk of cerebral palsy or epilepsy associated with macrolide prescribing in pregnancy adds to evidence that macrolide use is associated with serious harm.     

Cytoreductive Surgery of Colorectal Peritoneal Metastases: Outcomes after Complete Cytoreductive Surgery and Systemic Chemotherapy Only

Background

Cytoreductive peritoneal surgery (CRS) associated with hyperthermic peritoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) has long been considered the standard treatment for colorectal peritoneal metastases (CPM). However, although efficacy of surgery has been demonstrated, evidence supporting HIPEC’s role is less certain.

Method

Overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS) and morbidity were analysed retrospectively for fifty consecutively included patients treated for colorectal CPM with complete CRS and systemic chemotherapy only.

Results

Median peritoneal cancer index (PCI) was 8 (range 1-24). 23 patients had liver or lung metastases (LLM). 22 patients had synchronous CPM. 27 complications occurred (12 Grade 1/2, 14 Grade 3, 1 Grade 4a, 0 Grade 5). Median follow-up was 62.5 months (95 %CI 45.4-81.3), median survival 32.4 months (21.5-41.7). Three- and 5-year OS were 45.5% (0.31-0.59) and 29.64% (0.17-0.44) respectively. Presence of LLMs associated with peritoneal carcinomatosis was significantly associated with poorer prognosis, with survival at 5 years of 13.95% (95 %CI 2.9-33.6) vs. 43.87% (22.2-63.7) when no metastases were present (P= 0.018). Median PFS was 9.5 months (95 %CI 6.2-11.1).

Conclusion

With an equivalent PCI range and despite one of the highest rates of LLM in the literature, our survival data of CRS + systemic chemotherapy only compare well with results reported after additional HIPEC. Tolerance was better with acceptable morbidity without any mortality. Extra-hepatic metastasis (LLM) is a strong factor of poor prognosis. Awaiting the results of the randomized PRODIGE trial, these results indicate that CRS + systemic chemotherapy only is a robust hypothesis to treat colorectal CPM.     

Modeling the Health and Economic Burden of Hepatitis C Virus in Switzerland

Background

Chronic hepatitis C virus infection is a major cause of liver disease in Switzerland and carries a significant cost burden. Currently, only conservative strategies are in place to mitigate the burden of hepatitis C in Switzerland. This study expands on previously described modeling efforts to explore the impact of: no treatment, and treatment to reduce HCC and mortality. Furthermore, the costs associated with untreated HCV were modeled.

Methods

Hepatitis C disease progression and mortality were modeled. Baseline historical assumptions were collected from the literature and expert interviews and strategies were developed to show the impact of different levels of intervention (improved drug cure rates, treatment and diagnosis) until 2030.

Results

Under the historical standard of care, the number of advanced stage cases was projected to increase until 2030, at which point the annual economic burden of untreated viremic infections was projected to reach €96.8 (95% Uncertainty Interval: €36 – €232) million. Scenarios to reduce HCV liver-related mortality by 90% by 2030 required treatment of 4,190 ≥F2 or 3,200 ≥F3 patients annually by 2018 using antivirals with a 95% efficacy rate. Delaying the implementation of these scenarios by 2 or 5 years reduced the impact on mortality to 75% and 57%, respectively.

Conclusions

With today’s treatment efficacy and uptake rates, hepatitis C disease burden is expected to increase through 2030. A substantial reduction in disease burden can be achieved by means of both higher efficacy drugs and increased treatment uptake. However, these efforts cannot be undertaken without a simultaneous effort to diagnose more infections.     

Impact of Ten-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccination on Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in Finnish Children – A Population-Based Study

Background

The ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) was introduced into the Finnish National Vaccination Program (NVP) in September 2010 with a 2+1 schedule (3, 5, 12 months) without catch-up vaccinations. We evaluated the direct and indirect effects of PCV10 on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among children ≤5 years of age during the first three years after NVP introduction.

Methods

We conducted a population-based, observational follow-up study. The cohort of vaccine-eligible children (all children born June 1, 2010 or later) was followed from 3 months of age until the end of 2013. For the indirect effect, another cohort of older children ineligible for PCV10 vaccination was followed from 2011 through 2013. Both cohorts were compared with season- and age-matched reference cohorts before NVP introduction. National, population-based laboratory surveillance data were used to compare culture-confirmed serotype-specific IPD rates in the vaccine target and reference cohorts by using Poisson regression models.

Results

The overall IPD rate among vaccine-eligible children was reduced by 80% (95%CI 72 to 85); the reduction in vaccine-type IPD was 92% (95%CI 86 to 95). However, a non-significant increase in non-vaccine type IPD was observed. During 2012–2013, we also observed a 48% (95%CI 18 to 69) reduction in IPD among unvaccinated children 2 to 5 years of age, which was mostly attributable to the ten vaccine serotypes.

Conclusions

This is the first population-based study investigating the impact of PCV10 introduction without prior PCV7 use. A substantial decrease in IPD rates among vaccine-eligible children was observed. A smaller and temporally delayed reduction among older, unvaccinated children suggests that PCV10 also provides indirect protection against vaccine-type IPD. Changes in serotype distribution warrant continuous monitoring of potential increases in non-vaccine serotypes.     

Integration of HIV Care into Community Management of Acute Childhood Malnutrition Permits Good Outcomes: Retrospective Analysis of Three Years of a Programme in Lusaka

Background

While HIV has had a major impact on health care in southern Africa, there are few data on its impact on acute malnutrition in children in the community. We report an analysis of outcomes in a large programme of community management of acute malnutrition in the south of Lusaka.

Programme Activities and Analysis

Over 3 years, 68,707 assessments for undernutrition were conducted house-to-house, and children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) or moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) were enrolled into either Outpatient Therapeutic Programme (OTP) or Supplementary Feeding Programme (SFP) respectively. Case records were analysed using tabulation and unconditional logistic regression.

Findings

1,859 children (889 boys, 970 girls; median age 16 months) with MAM (n = 664) or SAM (n = 1,195) were identified. Of 1,796 children whose parents consented to testing, 185 (10.3%) were HIV positive. Altogether 1,163 (62.6%) were discharged as recovered from acute malnutrition. Case fatality while in the programme was 4.2% in children with SAM and 0.5% in those with MAM (RR of SAM 10.9; 95%CI 3.4,34.8; P<0.0001), and higher in children with HIV infection (RR 5.2, 95%CI 2.9, 9.0; P<0.0001). In multivariate analysis, HIV (OR 5.2; 95%CI 2.6, 10.1; P<0.0001), MUAC <11.5cm (OR 4.1; 95%CI 2.2, 7.4; P<0.0001) and the first year of the programme (OR 1.9; 95%CI 1.0, 3.4; P = 0.04) all increased mortality. Children with HIV infection who were able to initiate antiretroviral therapy had lower mortality (RR 0.23; 95%CI 0.10, 0.57; P = 0.0008).

Interpretation

Our programme suggests that a comprehensive community malnutrition programme, incorporating HIV care, can achieve low mortality even in a population heavily affected by HIV.