Measles outbreak in 31 schools: risk factors for vaccine failure and evaluation of a selective revaccination strategy.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the risk factors for measles vaccine failure and to evaluate the effectiveness of a selective revaccination strategy during a measles outbreak. DESIGN: Matched case-control study. SETTING: Thirty-one schools in Mississauga, Ont. SUBJECTS: Eighty-seven previously vaccinated school-aged children with measles that met the Advisory Committee on Epidemiology''s clinical case definition for measles. Two previously vaccinated control subjects were randomly selected for each case subject from the same homeroom class. INTERVENTIONS: All susceptible contacts were vaccinated, and contacts who had been vaccinated before Jan. 1, 1980, were revaccinated. When two or more cases occurred in a school all children vaccinated before 1980 were revaccinated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Risk of measles associated with age at vaccination, time since vaccination, vaccination before 1980 and revaccination. RESULTS: Subjects vaccinated before 12 months of age were at greater risk of measles than those vaccinated later (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 7.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.6 to 38.3; p = 0.01). Those vaccinated between 12 and 14 months of age were at no greater risk than those vaccinated at 15 months or over. Subjects vaccinated before 1980 were at greater risk than those vaccinated after 1980 (adjusted OR 14.5, 95% CI 1.5 to 135.6). Time since vaccination was not a risk factor. Revaccination was effective in reducing the risk of measles in both subjects vaccinated before 1980 and those vaccinated after 1980 (adjusted OR reduced to 0.6 [95% CI 0.1 to 5.3] and 0.3 [95% CI 0.13 to 2.6] respectively). However, only 18 cases were estimated to have been prevented by this strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Adherence to routine measles vaccination for all eligible children is important in ensuring appropriate coverage with a single dose. The selective revaccination strategy''s high labour intensiveness and low measles prevention rate during the outbreak bring into question the effectiveness of such a strategy.     

Immune response to the mumps component of the MMR vaccine in the routine of immunisation services in the Brazilian National Immunisation Program

A non-controlled longitudinal study was conducted to evaluate the combined vaccine against measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) immunogenicity in 150 children vaccinated in the routine of three health units in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2008-2009, without other vaccines administered during the period from 30 days before to 30 days after vaccination. A previous study conducted in Brazil in 2007, in 1,769 children ranging from 12-15 months of age vaccinated against yellow fever and MMR simultaneously or at intervals of 30 days or more between doses, had shown low seroconversion for mumps regardless of the interval between administration of the two vaccines. The current study showed 89.5% (95% confidence interval: 83.3; 94.0) seroconversion rate for mumps. All children seroconverted for measles and rubella. After revaccination, high antibody titres and seroconversion rates were achieved against mumps. The results of this study and others suggest that two MMR doses confer optimal immunoresponses for all three antigens and the possible need for additional doses should be studied taking into account not only serological, but also epidemiological data, as there is no serological correlate of protection for mumps.     

Analysis of a measles epidemic; possible role of vaccine failures.

A measles epidemic occurred in the Greensville (Ont.) Unit schools during January and February 1975. There were 47 cases of measles in 403 students: 26 (55%) of the children had a history of being vaccinated and 18 (38%) had not been vaccinated. Among children known to have been vaccinated at less than 1 year of age 7 of 13 contracted measles, while among the 48 children who had not been vaccinated 18 contracted measles. The attack rate among vaccinees increased with increasing time since vaccination. The observations of this study as well as those of similar studies suggest that vaccine failures contributed to the genesis of the epidemic. It is recommended that all children initially vaccinated at less than 1 year of age should be revaccinated with live attenuated measles virus vaccine.     

Recurring measles epidemic in Vietnam 2005-2009: implication for strengthened control strategies

Background: Measles remains a serious vaccine preventable cause of mortality in developing nations. Vietnam is aiming to achieve the level of immunity required to eliminate measles by maintaining a high coverage of routine first vaccinations in infants, routine second vaccinations at school entry and supplementary local campaigns in high-risk areas. Regular outbreaks of measles are reported, during 2005-2009.Methods: National measles case-based surveillance data collected during 2005-June 2009 was analyzed to assess the epidemiological trend and risk factors associated with measles outbreak in Vietnam.Results: Of the 36,282 measles suspected cases reported nationwide, only 7,086 cases were confirmed through laboratory examination. Although cyclical outbreaks occurred between 2005 and 2009, there was no definite trend in measles outbreaks during these periods. Overall, 2438 of measles confirmed cases were among children ≤5 years and 3068 cases were among people ≥16 years. The distribution with respect to gender skewed towards male (3667 cases) significant difference was not observed (P= 0.1693). Unsurprisingly, 4493 of the confirmed cases had no history of vaccination (X² <0.01). The northern and highland regions were identified as the main endemic foci and the spatial distribution changed with time. The occurrence of cases, in a considerable proportion of vaccinated population, is not only a reflection of the high vaccination coverage in Vietnam but also portrays a possibility of less than 100% vaccine efficacy. More so, in order to prevent measles in adults, high-risk groups must be identified and catch-up for selected groups selected.Conclusions: This study therefore reinforces the need for continued improvement of surveillance system and to probe into the possible role of changes in age-distribution of cases if the effective control of measles is to be achieved.     

Swedish experience of two dose vaccination programme aiming at eliminating measles,mumps, and rubella.

In 1982 a two dose regimen was introduced in Sweden for the combined vaccination against measles, mumps, and rubella of children aged 18 months and 12 years. Since 1977 about half of the preschool children were vaccinated against measles annually, and since 1974 about 80% of 12 year old girls were vaccinated against rubella. During the period 1982 to 1985 90-93% of the eligible age cohorts of 18 month old children and 88-91% of the 12 year old children were immunised with the new combined vaccine. A study in 1982 of about 140 18 month old children who were nearly all seronegative before vaccination showed that 96%, 92%, and 99% seroconverted against measles, mumps, and rubella, respectively. A second study was carried out in 1983 of 247 12 year old children, of whom 11% lacked antibodies to measles, 27% to mumps, and 45% to rubella. This showed seroconversion in 82% and 80% against measles and mumps, respectively, and all children seroconverted against rubella. In the latest study in 1985 of 496 12 year olds 9% and 13% were seronegative against measles and mumps before vaccination, and 41% against rubella. Of these, 88% seroconverted to measles and 80% to mumps, and all converted to rubella when sera were tested by the haemolysis in gel method. After a neutralisation test against measles as well all children showed immunity to the disease. A low incidence of measles and declining figures for mumps and rubella were reported in 1984 to 1986. An outbreak of rubella during 1985 affected mainly boys in age cohorts in which only the girls had been vaccinated during the 1970s.     

Evaluation of the eight-year period of compulsory measles vaccination in the Czech Socialist Republic (CSR)

The object of the study is the evaluation of a more than 8-year period of compulsory vaccination against measles in the CSR. So far, a total of 1,850,000 children have been vaccinated. A pronounced decrease has been achieved in morbidity while mortality and lethality reached zero values as early as in 1973. Changes occur in the epidemiological characteristic of measles manifested primarily by the shift of the age distribution of notified cases into older age groups, by continuous prolongation of interepidemic intervals and by gradual disappearances of typical seasonal incidence. Regular immunological surveys have become the most efficient tools in epidemiological surveillance of this infection and in monitoring the vaccination programme. The results of immunological surveys indeed led to the introduction in 1975 of so-called second vaccination compulsory for children starting the first year of school attendance. Up to the present, a total of 24,000 cases of measles have been recorded in children vaccinated earlier, i.e., 1.5% of the total of vaccinated children. It can be expected that measles as a mass disease will be eliminated from the territory of the CSR in the next few years.     

When measles came to class: a look back at the 1989 Kent State University measles epidemic

BackgroundMeasles was eliminated from the United States in 2000, following a change from a single dose of measles vaccine to two doses after an epidemic 1989–1991. Several college campuses experienced outbreaks, including Kent State University (KSU) in Ohio.MethodsLocal news media from 1988 to 1989 were searched in August 2019. Interventions taken by the university were recorded, and an epidemic curve constructed.ResultsThe first measles cases were reported in October 1988. The outbreak diminished over winter break. New cases were confirmed in February 1989. Infected students were instructed to vacate the dorms. Vaccines were mandated for student groups. The epidemic grew rapidly in March but slowed after spring break. By April, 380 cases had been reported and 7000 students vaccinated.ConclusionsKSU was one of the hardest-hit universities during the 1989 measles epidemic. A combination of vaccination, isolation, quarantine, and elimination of public events helped to curtail the epidemic.     

Vaccination coverage in hard to reach Roma children in Slovenia

The results of the retrospective analysis of data on vaccination coverage in the preschool-aged and school-aged Roma children (436 preschool and 551 schoolchildren) in three geographical regions of Slovenia were analyzed to establish the differences concerning coverage for specific vaccinations: poliomyelitis, diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, measles, mumps and rubella between the two generation. The data were obtained from health records, immunization records (Vaccination booklet) and National Computerized Immunization System (CEPI 2000). Vaccination coverage was calculated by comparing the number of children eligible for immunization with the number of vaccinated children. This article performs the log-rank statistical test, also known as the Mantel-Haenszel test. Log rang test is comparing survival curves for two generations. Preschool-aged Roma children showed higher vaccination coverage than the school-aged Roma generation. There was no significance difference in the generations of preschool aged and school aged Roma children fully vaccinated against poliomyelitis, diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis. Rubella vaccination was significantly lower in the school aged Roma generation. Only 33% of school aged Roma population received two doses of measles, mumps and rubella vaccine. Vaccination coverage of preschool Roma children in Slovenia against poliomyelitis, diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis and MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) were significantly lower then the national vaccination coverage for preschool aged Slovenia children. Many joint efforts will have to be made to improve the vaccination coverage in Roma communities.     

Effect of Measles Vaccination on Incidence of Measles in the Community

A study of the effect of measles vaccination on the incidence of the disease in eight separate areas of England and Wales was begun in 1966. It showed an inverse association between the proportion of children vaccinated and the incidence of measles in the area in the following year, but measles epidemics occurred in several of the areas in subsequent years, despite continuing vaccinations.Measles vaccination was introduced on a large scale in Britain in 1968. Analysis of the notification and vaccination statistics shows that the vaccination of about 10% of the child population (under 15 years) in 1968 sufficed to “replace” the measles epidemic which had been expected in the period October 1968 to September 1969 by a low incidence of the disease, typical of that in previous “interepidemic” years. Further, the effect of the vaccinations was to prevent the development of natural measles in susceptible unvaccinated children as well as in the vaccinated subjects. Thus the number of immune subjects in the community was increased by the vaccinations, but as a result there was a reduction in the number of subjects who acquired immunity from natural measles. These opposed results can therefore explain why vaccination may be effective in the community for only a year or two, though vaccination protects the individual for much longer.It is estimated that a continuing vaccination rate of 40 to 50% of the children born each year would be necessary to replace the regular biennial measles epidemics in Britain by a continuous endemic incidence, and might perhaps lead to the disappearance of the disease without a further major epidemic, but that a continuing vaccination rate of 80 to 90% of children born each year would then be necessary to prevent its reintroduction. The long-term control of measles by vaccination will thus probably prove more difficult than for any other infectious disease.     

Measles Outbreak in South Africa: Epidemiology of Laboratory-Confirmed Measles Cases and Assessment of Intervention, 2009–2011

Background

Since 1995, measles vaccination at nine and 18 months has been routine in South Africa; however, coverage seldom reached >95%. We describe the epidemiology of laboratory-confirmed measles case-patients and assess the impact of the nationwide mass vaccination campaign during the 2009 to 2011 measles outbreak in South Africa.

Methods

Serum specimens collected from patients with suspected-measles were tested for measles-specific IgM antibodies using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and genotypes of a subset were determined. To estimate the impact of the nationwide mass vaccination campaign, we compared incidence in the seven months pre- (1 September 2009–11 April 2010) and seven months post-vaccination campaign (24 May 2010–31 December 2010) periods in seven provinces of South Africa.

Results

A total of 18,431 laboratory-confirmed measles case-patients were reported from all nine provinces of South Africa (cumulative incidence 37 per 100,000 population). The highest cumulative incidence per 100,000 population was in children aged <1 year (603), distributed as follows: <6 months (302/100,000), 6 to 8 months (1083/100,000) and 9 to 11 months (724/100,000). Forty eight percent of case-patients were ≥5 years (cumulative incidence 54/100,000). Cumulative incidence decreased with increasing age to 2/100,000 in persons ≥40 years. A single strain of measles virus (genotype B3) circulated throughout the outbreak. Prior to the vaccination campaign, cumulative incidence in the targeted vs. non-targeted age group was 5.9-fold higher, decreasing to 1.7 fold following the campaign (P<0.001) and an estimated 1,380 laboratory-confirmed measles case-patients were prevented.

Conclusion

We observed a reduction in measles incidence following the nationwide mass vaccination campaign even though it was conducted approximately one year after the outbreak started. A booster dose at school entry may be of value given the high incidence in persons >5 years.     

Epidemiological situation of measles in Japan and measures for its control

In 2007, measles outbreak occurred mainly among teen/twenties in Japan, and many high-school, universities and colleges were closed to reduce spread of measles. Some high school students became measles when they were in foreign countries where measles has been eliminated, visited as school excursion. Since introducing measles vaccine as routine immunization, number of measles has been reduced remarkably in Japan. However, we had measles outbreak in 2001, and total annual patients number were estimated 200-300 thausands mainly among young infants. The main reason was low immunization coverage of measles at 1 year old, and operation to give measles vaccine as "the gift for 1 year old birthday" has been introduced widely. Then immunization coverage at this age was increased up from 50-60% (2001) to 80-90% (2006) and total measles number was estimated less than 10,000 at 2005 and 2006, however, measles outbreak occurred this time among teen/twenties in 2007. The total number of adult measles (more than 15 y.o.) were higher than the number of them at 2001 outbreak. To discontinue outbreak and to eliminate measles, enhancement of measles control activities has been introduced in Japan. Two doses policy with measles and rubella (MR) vaccine at 1 y.o. and before elementary school has been introduced since 2006 and further, supplementary immunization with MR at 1st grade in junior high school and 3rd grade in high school for 5 years from 2008 will start to eliminate measles by 2012. Reporting system will be also changed from sentinels system to notify to all measles cases system. In this paper, present epidemiological situation on measles in Japan, measles elimination strategy in WPRO, and plan for measles elimination in Japan are described.     

Reduced childhood mortality after standard measles vaccination at 4-8 months compared with 9-11 months of age.

OBJECTIVE--To evaluate the impact on mortality of standard Schwarz measles immunisation before 9 months of age. DESIGN--Children vaccinated in 1980-3 at 4-5, 6-8, and 9-11 months of age were followed to migration, death, or the age of 5 years. SETTING--One urban district and nine villages in two rural areas of Guinea-Bissau. SUBJECT--307 children vaccinated at 4-8 months and 256 at 9-11 months. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Mortality from 9 months to 5 years of age for children immunised at 4-5, 6-8, and 9-11 months. RESULTS--Mortality was significantly lower in children vaccinated at 6-8 months than at 9-11 months (mortality ratio = 0.63, (95% confidence interval 0.41 to 0.97), p = 0.047). As vaccination was provided in semiannual or annual campaigns it is unlikely that age at vaccination reflected a selection bias. The trend was the same in all three study areas. Improved survival after early immunisation was not related to better protection against measles infection. With a Cox multivariate regression model to adjust for age, sex, season at risk, season at birth, measles infection, and region, children vaccinated at 4-8 months had a mortality ratio of 0.61 (0.40 to 0.92, p = 0.020) compared with children vaccinated at 9-11 months. Reimmunised children tended to have lower mortality than children who received only one vaccine (0.59 (0.28 to 1.27, p = 0.176)). CONCLUSION--Standard measles vaccination before 9 months is not associated with higher childhood mortality than is the currently recommended strategy of immunising from 9 months, and it may reduce mortality. This has implications for measles immunisation strategy in developing countries.     

Measles Case Fatality Rate in Bihar,India, 2011–12

Background

Updated estimates of measles case fatality rates (CFR) are critical for monitoring progress towards measles elimination goals. India accounted for 36% of total measles deaths occurred globally in 2011. We conducted a retrospective cohort study to estimate measles CFR and identify the risk factors for measles death in Bihar–one of the north Indian states historically known for its low vaccination coverage.

Methods

We systematically selected 16 of the 31 laboratory-confirmed measles outbreaks occurring in Bihar during 1 October 2011 to 30 April 2012. All households of the villages/urban localities affected by these outbreaks were visited to identify measles cases and deaths. We calculated CFR and used multivariate analysis to identify risk factors for measles death.

Results

The survey found 3670 measles cases and 28 deaths (CFR: 0.78, 95% confidence interval: 0.47–1.30). CFR was higher among under-five children (1.22%) and children belonging to scheduled castes/tribes (SC/ST, 1.72%). On multivariate analysis, independent risk factors associated with measles death were age <5 years, SC/ST status and non-administration of vitamin A during illness. Outbreaks with longer interval between the occurrence of first case and notification of the outbreak also had a higher rate of deaths.

Conclusions

Measles CFR in Bihar was low. To further reduce case fatality, health authorities need to ensure that SC/ST are targeted by the immunization programme and that outbreak investigations target for vitamin A treatment of cases in high risk groups such as SC/ST and young children and ensure regular visits by health-workers in affected villages to administer vitamin A to new cases.     

Experiences with vaccination and epidemiological investigations on an anthrax outbreak in Australia in 1997

Between January and February 1997, there was a severe outbreak of anthrax on 83 properties in north-central Victoria, Australia. Vaccination was used as a major tool to control the outbreak by establishing a vaccination buffer zone 30 km by 20 km. In all, 78, 649 cattle in 457 herds were vaccinated in a three week program. In the face of the outbreak, there was a delay before vaccination was able to stop deaths. In the 10 days following vaccination 144 cases of confirmed anthrax occurred and 38 cases occurred more than 10 days after vaccination. When all cattle on at-risk properties were revaccinated in October and early November 1997, there were only two confirmed cases of anthrax in vaccinated seven and nine month old calves in the following anthrax season. Investigations into the epidemiology of the outbreak were unable to establish a single major association for the spread of the disease by flies, biting insects, carrion scavengers, wind, manufactured feed, milk factory tanker routes, veterinary visits, animal treatments, movements of personnel between farms or burning of carcases. The weather conditions in the outbreak area were part of a long dry spell with periods of high daily and night temperatures, continuing high humidity over the period and higher than normal soil temperatures. It is possible that extensive earth works in the district involving irrigated pasture renovation and water channel and drainage renovation could have disturbed old anthrax graves. It is postulated that these works released spores that were dispersed in the preceding wet winter across poorly drained areas that formed the axis for the outbreak. The earth moving renovations establishing irrigation in the area were conducted in the late 1890s, and before the occurrence of anthrax outbreaks were recorded. The axis of the outbreak was the major stock route for cattle and sheep moving from southern Victoria to northern Victoria and southern New South Wales, and undoubtedly there would have been extensive anthrax outbreaks before vaccine became available in the 1890s. In respect of other outbreaks, the events in Victoria most resembled outbreaks of anthrax recorded in the United States of America in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s.     

Comparative study of the smallpox vaccines from B-51, EM-63 and L-IVP in a controlled epidemiological experiment. II. The characteristiics of the immunogenicity of the smallpox vaccines]

Immunogenicity of smallpox vaccines prepared of EM-63, L-IVP, and B-51 strains was studied under conditions of strict controlled epidemiological trial. Skin reactions to revaccination and vaccines antigenic activity indices were detemined in the persons vaccinated. Changes in the virus-neutralizing and antibodies suppressing hemagglutination was the same in persons vaccinated with any of the preparations tested. The maximal virus-neutralizing antibodies level was determined 1 month after the vaccination and persisted without any essential changes for one year. The titre of hemagglutination inhibiting antibodies also reached the maximum in one month, but diminished gradually by the end of one year after the vaccination. There were found no significant differences in the antigenic activity of the vaccines. The vaccines studied also displayed no difference in the number and character of skin reactions to revaccination. In comparing the antibodies level and the character of skin reactions to revaccination it was found that the titres of hemagglutination inhibiting antibodies and virus-neutralizing antibodies of 1:40 and over were in the great majority of cases determined in the blood sera of the vaccinated persons with the immediate and negative reactions to revaccination, i. e. in those with intensive postvaccinal immunity.     

The case for reactive mass oral cholera vaccinations

Introduction

The outbreak of cholera in Zimbabwe intensified interest in the control and prevention of cholera. While there is agreement that safe water, sanitation, and personal hygiene are ideal for the long term control of cholera, there is controversy about the role of newer approaches such as oral cholera vaccines (OCVs). In October 2009 the Strategic Advisory Group of Experts advised the World Health Organization to consider reactive vaccination campaigns in response to large cholera outbreaks. To evaluate the potential benefit of this pivotal change in WHO policy, we used existing data from cholera outbreaks to simulate the number of cholera cases preventable by reactive mass vaccination.

Methods

Datasets of cholera outbreaks from three sites with varying cholera endemicity—Zimbabwe, Kolkata (India), and Zanzibar (Tanzania)—were analysed to estimate the number of cholera cases preventable under differing response times, vaccine coverage, and vaccine doses.

Findings

The large cholera outbreak in Zimbabwe started in mid August 2008 and by July 2009, 98,591 cholera cases had been reported with 4,288 deaths attributed to cholera. If a rapid response had taken place and half of the population had been vaccinated once the first 400 cases had occurred, as many as 34,900 (40%) cholera cases and 1,695 deaths (40%) could have been prevented. In the sites with endemic cholera, Kolkata and Zanzibar, a significant number of cases could have been prevented but the impact would have been less dramatic. A brisk response is required for outbreaks with the majority of cases occurring during the early weeks. Even a delayed response can save a substantial number of cases and deaths in long, drawn-out outbreaks. If circumstances prevent a rapid response there are good reasons to roll out cholera mass vaccination campaigns well into the outbreak. Once a substantial proportion of a population is vaccinated, outbreaks in subsequent years may be reduced if not prevented. A single dose vaccine would be of advantage in short, small outbreaks.

Conclusions

We show that reactive vaccine use can prevent cholera cases and is a rational response to cholera outbreaks in endemic and non-endemic settings. In large and long outbreaks a reactive vaccination with a two-dose vaccine can prevent a substantial proportion of cases. To make mass vaccination campaigns successful, it would be essential to agree when to implement reactive vaccination campaigns and to have a dynamic and determined response team that is familiar with the logistic challenges on standby. Most importantly, the decision makers in donor and recipient countries have to be convinced of the benefit of reactive cholera vaccinations.     

The results of multiyear observations on the duration of the maintenance of immunity in those vaccinated and revaccinated against and recovered from measles

The results of 5-year observations on the duration of immunity to measles virus in persons vaccinated and revaccinated against measles, as well as in persons having had this infection, are presented. The intensity of immunity was determined in the same persons with the use of the passive hemagglutination test. The study revealed differences in the formation, intensity and duration of postvaccinal immunity. A significant decrease in the concentration of antibodies over the period of 5 years was established in 50.0-52.3% of vaccines. Revaccination with live measles vaccine is an effective measure for enhancing immunity to measles virus in persons with initial antibody titers less than 1:10-1:20, but revaccination made in a single injection is not sufficient for the stable maintenance of measles morbidity at the sporadic level. Postinfectious immunity is characterized by stability and has no tendency towards decrease. Persons having had measles have no need in additional measures irrespective of the time elapsed after the disease.     

Effectiveness of revaccination against measles]

The authors studied the efficacy of measles revaccination in children in whose serum no specific antihemagglutinins were revealed in titration with 1 GAE antigen (the first group) and having no specific antibodies in titration with 4 GAE antigen (the second group). Investigations demonstrated that children in whose blood serum no measles antibodies were revealed in the presence of 1 GAE antigen were subject of vaccination. Repeated vaccination used at present in persons who produced minimal antibody concentrations in response to vaccination is not recommended.     

Altered Reactivity to Measles Virus in Previously Vaccinated Children

In children vaccinated with killed measles vaccine, exposure to natural rubeola within two to four years can result in a clinical syndrome of altered measles reactivity.During a small epidemic of measles in Edmonton, Alberta, 51 children who had received their last killed measles vaccination 27 to 45 months before, were admitted to hospital with this syndrome.The syndrome consists of a prodromal cough and high fever followed by a maculopapular rash appearing on the extremities and progressing centrally. Pulmonary consolidations with or without pleural effusions were evident, but these cleared rapidly in four or five days. Initial WBC and ESR values suggested a bacterial etiology, but no pathogens could be isolated.Complement fixation titres for rubeola are present in acute and convalescent sera and indicate a definite measles infection.Previous killed measles vaccination excites a delayed hypersensitivity which is activated by the natural measles infection to account for this syndrome.It is recommended that killed measles vaccine be no longer used in routine vaccinations.     

Adaptive Management and the Value of Information: Learning Via Intervention in Epidemiology

Optimal intervention for disease outbreaks is often impeded by severe scientific uncertainty. Adaptive management (AM), long-used in natural resource management, is a structured decision-making approach to solving dynamic problems that accounts for the value of resolving uncertainty via real-time evaluation of alternative models. We propose an AM approach to design and evaluate intervention strategies in epidemiology, using real-time surveillance to resolve model uncertainty as management proceeds, with foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) culling and measles vaccination as case studies. We use simulations of alternative intervention strategies under competing models to quantify the effect of model uncertainty on decision making, in terms of the value of information, and quantify the benefit of adaptive versus static intervention strategies. Culling decisions during the 2001 UK FMD outbreak were contentious due to uncertainty about the spatial scale of transmission. The expected benefit of resolving this uncertainty prior to a new outbreak on a UK-like landscape would be £45–£60 million relative to the strategy that minimizes livestock losses averaged over alternate transmission models. AM during the outbreak would be expected to recover up to £20.1 million of this expected benefit. AM would also recommend a more conservative initial approach (culling of infected premises and dangerous contact farms) than would a fixed strategy (which would additionally require culling of contiguous premises). For optimal targeting of measles vaccination, based on an outbreak in Malawi in 2010, AM allows better distribution of resources across the affected region; its utility depends on uncertainty about both the at-risk population and logistical capacity. When daily vaccination rates are highly constrained, the optimal initial strategy is to conduct a small, quick campaign; a reduction in expected burden of approximately 10,000 cases could result if campaign targets can be updated on the basis of the true susceptible population. Formal incorporation of a policy to update future management actions in response to information gained in the course of an outbreak can change the optimal initial response and result in significant cost savings. AM provides a framework for using multiple models to facilitate public-health decision making and an objective basis for updating management actions in response to improved scientific understanding.