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1.
Combined exposure to hydroelectric expansion,climate change and forest loss jeopardies amphibians in the Brazilian Amazon 下载免费PDF全文
Yuri B. da Silva e Silva Bruno R. Ribeiro Fernanda Thiesen Brum Britaldo Soares‐Filho Rafael Loyola Fernanda Michalski 《Diversity & distributions》2018,24(8):1072-1082
Aim
Human‐driven impacts constantly threat amphibians, even in largely protected regions such as the Amazon. The Brazilian Amazon is home to a great diversity of amphibians, several of them currently threatened with extinction. We investigated how climate change, deforestation and establishment of hydroelectric dams could affect the geographic distribution of Amazonian amphibians by 2030 and midcentury.Location
The Brazilian Amazon.Methods
We overlapped the geographic distribution of 255 species with the location of hydroelectric dams, models of deforestation and climate change scenarios for the future.Results
We found that nearly 67% of all species and 54% of species with high degree of endemism within the Legal Brazilian Amazon would lose habitats due to the hydroelectric overlapping. In addition, deforestation is also a potential threat to amphibians, but had a smaller impact compared to the likely changes in climate. The largest potential range loss would be caused by the likely increase in temperature. We found that five amphibian families would have at least half of the species with over 50% of potential distribution range within the Legal Brazilian Amazon limits threatened by climate change between 2030 and 2050.Main conclusions
Amphibians in the Amazon are highly vulnerable to climate change, which may cause, directly or indirectly, deleterious biological changes for the group. Under modelled scenarios, the Brazilian Government needs to plan for the development of the Amazon prioritizing landscape changes of low environmental impact and economic development to ensure that such changes do not cause major impacts on amphibian species while reducing the emission of greenhouse gases.2.
Thomas Evans Sabrina Kumschick Çağan H. Şekercioğlu Tim M. Blackburn 《Diversity & distributions》2018,24(6):800-810
Aim
To identify traits related to the severity and type of environmental impacts generated by alien bird species, in order to improve our ability to predict which species may have the most damaging impacts.Location
Global.Methods
Information on traits hypothesized to influence the severity and type of alien bird impacts was collated for 113 bird species. These data were analysed using mixed effects models accounting for phylogenetic non‐independence of species.Results
The severity and type of impacts generated by alien bird species are not randomly distributed with respect to their traits. Alien range size and habitat breadth were strongly associated with impact severity. Predation impacts were strongly associated with dietary preference, but also with alien range size, relative brain size and residence time. Impacts mediated by interactions with other alien species were related to alien range size and diet breadth.Main conclusions
Widely distributed generalist alien birds have the most severe environmental impacts. This may be because these species have greater opportunity to cause environmental impacts through their sheer number and ubiquity, but this could also be because they are more likely to be identified and studied. Our study found little evidence for an effect of per capita impact on impact severity.3.
Juliano Sarmento Cabral Florian Jeltsch Wilfried Thuiller Steven Higgins Guy F. Midgley Anthony G. Rebelo Mathieu Rouget Frank M. Schurr 《Diversity & distributions》2013,19(4):363-376
Aim
To assess how habitat loss and climate change interact in affecting the range dynamics of species and to quantify how predicted range dynamics depend on demographic properties of species and the severity of environmental change.Location
South African Cape Floristic Region.Methods
We use data‐driven demographic models to assess the impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on range size, range filing and abundances of eight species of woody plants (Proteaceae). The species‐specific models employ a hybrid approach that simulates population dynamics and long‐distance dispersal on top of expected spatio‐temporal dynamics of suitable habitat.Results
Climate change was mainly predicted to reduce range size and range filling (because of a combination of strong habitat shifts with low migration ability). In contrast, habitat loss mostly decreased mean local abundance. For most species and response measures, the combination of habitat loss and climate change had the most severe effect. Yet, this combined effect was mostly smaller than expected from adding or multiplying effects of the individual environmental drivers. This seems to be because climate change shifts suitable habitats to regions less affected by habitat loss. Interspecific variation in range size responses depended mostly on the severity of environmental change, whereas responses in range filling and local abundance depended mostly on demographic properties of species. While most surviving populations concentrated in areas that remain climatically suitable, refugia for multiple species were overestimated by simply overlying habitat models and ignoring demography.Main conclusions
Demographic models of range dynamics can simultaneously predict the response of range size, abundance and range filling to multiple drivers of environmental change. Demographic knowledge is particularly needed to predict abundance responses and to identify areas that can serve as biodiversity refugia under climate change. These findings highlight the need for data‐driven, demographic assessments in conservation biogeography.4.
Katharina Dehnen‐Schmutz Thomas Boivin Franz Essl Quentin J. Groom Laura Harrison Julia M. Touza Helen Bayliss 《Diversity & distributions》2018,24(8):1149-1157
Aim
To collect and identify the issues that may affect the future global and local management of biological invasions in the next 20–50 years and provide guidance for the prioritization of actions and policies responding to the management challenges of the future.Location
GlobalMethods
We used an open online survey to poll specialists and stakeholders from around the world as to their opinion on the three most important future issues both globally and at their respective local working level.Results
The 240 respondents identified 629 global issues that we categorized into topics. We summarized the highest rated topics into five broad thematic areas: (1) environmental change, particularly climate change, (2) the spread of species through trade, (3) public awareness, (4) the development of new technologies to enhance management and (5) the need to strengthen policies. The respondents also identified 596 issues at their respective local working levels. Management, early detection, prevention and funding‐related issues all ranked higher than at the global level. Our global audience of practitioners, policymakers and researchers also elicited topics not identified in horizon scanning exercises led by scientists including potential human health impacts, the need for better risk assessments and legislation, the role of human migration and water management.Main conclusions
The topic areas identified in this horizon scan provide guidance where future policy priorities for invasive alien species should be set. First, to reduce the magnitude and speed of environmental change and its impacts on biological invasions; second, to restrict the movement of potentially invasive alien species via trade; third, to raise awareness with the general public and empower them to act; and finally, to invest in innovative technologies that can detect and mitigate adverse impacts of introduced species.5.
Invasion lags: The stories we tell ourselves and our inability to infer process from pattern 下载免费PDF全文
Aim
Many alien species experience a lag phase between arriving in a region and becoming invasive, which can provide a valuable window of opportunity for management. Our ability to predict which species are experiencing lags has major implications for management decisions that are worth billions of dollars and that may determine the survival of some native species. To date, timing and causes of lag and release have been identified post hoc, based on historical narratives.Location
Global.Methods
We use a simple but realistic simulation of population spread over a fragmented landscape. To break the invasion lag, we introduce a sudden, discrete change in dispersal.Results
We show that the ability to predict invasion lags is minimal even under controlled circumstances. We also show a non‐negligible risk of falsely attributing lag breaks to mechanisms based on invasion trajectories and coincidences in timing.Main conclusions
We suggest that post hoc narratives may lead us to erroneously believe we can predict lags and that a precautionary approach is the only sound management practice for most alien species.6.
Combining point‐process and landscape vegetation models to predict large herbivore distributions in space and time—A case study of Rupicapra rupicapra 下载免费PDF全文
Wilfried Thuiller Maya Guéguen Marjorie Bison Antoine Duparc Mathieu Garel Anne Loison Julien Renaud Giovanni Poggiato 《Diversity & distributions》2018,24(3):352-362
Aim
When modelling the distribution of animals under current and future conditions, both their response to environmental constraints and their resources’ response to these environmental constraints need to be taken into account. Here, we develop a framework to predict the distribution of large herbivores under global change, while accounting for changes in their main resources. We applied it to Rupicapra rupicapra, the chamois of the European Alps.Location
The Bauges Regional Park (French Alps).Methods
We built sixteen plant functional groups (PFGs) that account for the chamois’ diet (estimated from sequenced environmental DNA found in the faeces), climatic requirements, dispersal limitations, successional stage and interaction for light. These PFGs were then simulated using a dynamic vegetation model, under current and future climatic conditions up to 2100. Finally, we modelled the spatial distribution of the chamois under both current and future conditions using a point‐process model applied to either climate‐only variables or climate and simulated vegetation structure variables.Results
Both the climate‐only and the climate and vegetation models successfully predicted the current distribution of the chamois species. However, when applied into the future, the predictions differed widely. While the climate‐only models predicted an 80% decrease in total species occupancy, including vegetation structure and plant resources for chamois in the model provided more optimistic predictions because they account for the transient dynamics of the vegetation (?20% in species occupancy).Main conclusions
Applying our framework to the chamois shows that the inclusion of ecological mechanisms (i.e., plant resources) produces more realistic predictions under current conditions and should prove useful for anticipating future impacts. We have shown that discounting the pure effects of vegetation on chamois might lead to overpessimistic predictions under climate change. Our approach paves the way for improved synergies between different fields to produce biodiversity scenarios.7.
Projecting potential future shifts in species composition of European urban plant communities 下载免费PDF全文
Zdeňka Lososová Lubomír Tichý Jan Divíšek Natálie Čeplová Jiří Danihelka Pavel Dřevojan Karel Fajmon Veronika Kalníková Veronika Kalusová Pavel Novák Vladimír Řehořek Tamás Wirth Milan Chytrý 《Diversity & distributions》2018,24(6):765-775
Aim
Urban floras are composed of species of different origin, both native and alien, and with various traits and niches. It is likely that these species will respond to the ongoing climate change in different ways, resulting in future species compositions with no analogues in current European cities. Our goal was to estimate potential shifts in plant species composition in European cities under different scenarios of climate change for the 21st century.Location
Europe.Methods
Potential changes in the distribution of 375 species currently growing in 60 large cities in Southern, Central and Western Europe were modelled using generalized linear models and four climate change projections for two future periods (2041–2060 and 2061–2080). These projections were based on two global climate models (CCSM4 and MIROC‐ESM) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (2.6 and 8.5).Results
Results were similar across all climate projections, suggesting that the composition of urban plant communities will change considerably due to future climate change. However, even under the most severe climate change scenario, native and alien species will respond to climate change similarly. Many currently established species will decline and others, especially annuals currently restricted to Southern Europe, will spread to northern cities. In contrast, perennial herbs, woody plants and most species with temperate continental and oceanic distribution ranges will make up a smaller proportion of future European urban plant communities in comparison with the present communities.Main conclusions
The projected 21st century climate change will lead to considerable changes in the species composition of urban floras. These changes will affect the structure and functioning of urban plant communities.8.
Standardized genetic diversity‐life history correlates for improved genetic resource management of Neotropical trees 下载免费PDF全文
Andrew J. Lowe Henri Caron Nathalie Colpaert Christopher Dick Bryan Finegan Mike Gardner Godelieve Gheysen Rogério Gribel J. Berton C. Harris Antoine Kremer Maristerra R. Lemes Rogerio Margis Carlos M. Navarro Fabiano Salgueiro Heidy M. Villalobos‐Barrantes Stephen Cavers 《Diversity & distributions》2018,24(6):730-741
Aim
Life history traits and range size are key correlates of genetic diversity in trees. We used a standardized sampling protocol to explore how life history traits and range size relate to the magnitude, variance and structuring (both between‐ and within‐population) of genetic diversity in Neotropical tree species.Location
The NeotropicsMethods
We present a meta‐analysis of new population genetic data generated for 23 Neotropical tree species (=2,966 trees, 86 populations) across a shared and broad geographic area. We compared established population genetic metrics across these species (e.g., genetic diversity, population structure, fine‐scale genetic structure), plus we estimated the rarely used variance in genetic diversity among populations. We used a multivariate, maximum likelihood, multimodel inference approach to explore the relative influence of life history traits and range size on patterns of neutral genetic diversity.Results
We found that pioneer and narrow range species had lower levels but greater variance in genetic diversity—signs of founder effects and stronger genetic drift. Animal‐dispersed species had lower population differentiation, indicating extensive gene flow. Abiotically dispersed and pioneer species had stronger fine‐scale genetic structure, suggesting restricted seed dispersal and family cohort establishment.Main conclusions
Our multivariable and multispecies approach allows ecologically relevant conclusions, since knowing whether one parameter has an effect, or one species shows a response in isolation, is dependent on the combination of traits expressed by a species. Our study demonstrates the influence of ecological processes on the distribution of genetic variation in tropical trees, and will help guide genetic resource management, and contribute to predicting the impacts of land use change.9.
Chasing a changing climate: Reproductive and dispersal traits predict how sessile species respond to global warming 下载免费PDF全文
Jennifer M. Archambault W. Gregory Cope Thomas J. Kwak 《Diversity & distributions》2018,24(7):880-891
Aim
Studies of species' range shifts have become increasingly relevant for understanding ecology and biogeography in the face of accelerated global change. The combination of limited mobility and imperilled status places some species at a potentially greater risk of range loss, extirpation or extinction due to climate change. To assess the ability of organisms with limited movement and dispersal capabilities to track shifts associated with climate change, we evaluated reproductive and dispersal traits of freshwater mussels (Unionida), sessile invertebrates that require species‐specific fish for larval dispersal.Location
North American Atlantic Slope rivers.Methods
To understand how unionid mussels may cope with and adapt to current and future warming trends, we identified mechanisms that facilitated their colonization of the northern Atlantic Slope river basins in North America after the Last Glacial Maximum. We compiled species occurrence and life history trait information for each of 55 species, and then selected life history traits for which ample data were available (larval brooding duration, host fish specificity, host infection strategy, and body size) and analysed whether the trait state for each was related to mussel distribution in Atlantic Slope rivers.Results
Brooding duration (p < .01) and host fish specificity (p = .02) were significantly related to mussel species distribution. Long‐term brooders were more likely than short‐term brooders to colonize formerly glaciated rivers, as were host generalists compared to specialists. Body size and host infection strategy were not predictive of movement into formerly glaciated rivers (p > .10).Main conclusions
Our results are potentially applicable to many species for which life history traits have not been well‐documented, because reproductive and dispersal traits in unionid mussels typically follow phylogenetic relationships. These findings may help resource managers prioritize species according to climate change vulnerability and predict which species might become further imperilled with climate warming. Finally, we suggest that similar trait‐based decision support frameworks may be applicable for other movement limited taxa.10.
Species richness and phylogenetic diversity of native and non‐native species respond differently to area and environmental factors 下载免费PDF全文
Aim
To test whether native and non‐native species have similar diversity–area relationships (species–area relationships [SARs] and phylogenetic diversity–area relationships [PDARs]) and whether they respond similarly to environmental variables.Location
United States.Methods
Using lists of native and non‐native species as well as environmental variables for >250 US national parks, we compared SARs and PDARs of native and non‐native species to test whether they respond similarly to environmental conditions. We then used multiple regressions involving climate, land cover and anthropogenic variables to further explore underlying predictors of diversity for plants and birds in US national parks.Results
Native and non‐native species had different slopes for SARs and PDARs, with significantly higher slopes for native species. Corroborating this pattern, multiple regressions showed that native and non‐native diversity of plants and birds responded differently to a greater number of environmental variables than expected by chance. For native species richness, park area and longitude were the most important variables while the number of park visitors, temperature and the percentage of natural area were among the most important ones for non‐native species richness. Interestingly, the most important predictor of native and non‐native plant phylogenetic diversity, temperature, had positive effects on non‐native plants but negative effects on natives.Main conclusions
SARs, PDARs and multiple regressions all suggest that native and non‐native plants and birds responded differently to environmental factors that influence their diversity. The agreement between diversity–area relationships and multiple regressions with environmental variables suggests that SARs and PDARs can be both used as quick proxies of overall responses of species to environmental conditions. However, more importantly, our results suggest that global change will have different effects on native and non‐native species, making it inappropriate to apply the large body of knowledge on native species to understand patterns of community assembly of non‐native species.11.
Modelling the distribution and compositional variation of plant communities at the continental scale 下载免费PDF全文
Borja Jiménez‐Alfaro Susana Suárez‐Seoane Milan Chytrý Stephan M. Hennekens Wolfgang Willner Michal Hájek Emiliano Agrillo Jose M. Álvarez‐Martínez Ariel Bergamini Henry Brisse Jörg Brunet Laura Casella Daniel Dítě Xavier Font François Gillet Petra Hájková Florian Jansen Ute Jandt Zygmunt Kącki Jonathan Lenoir John S. Rodwell Joop H. J. Schaminée Lucia Sekulová Jozef Šibík Željko Škvorc Ioannis Tsiripidis 《Diversity & distributions》2018,24(7):978-990
Aim
We investigate whether (1) environmental predictors allow to delineate the distribution of discrete community types at the continental scale and (2) how data completeness influences model generalization in relation to the compositional variation of the modelled entities.Location
Europe.Methods
We used comprehensive datasets of two community types of conservation concern in Europe: acidophilous beech forests and base‐rich fens. We computed community distribution models (CDMs) calibrated with environmental predictors to predict the occurrence of both community types, evaluating geographical transferability, interpolation and extrapolation under different scenarios of sampling bias. We used generalized dissimilarity modelling (GDM) to assess the role of geographical and environmental drivers in compositional variation within the predicted distributions.Results
For the two community types, CDMs computed for the whole study area provided good performance when evaluated by random cross‐validation and external validation. Geographical transferability provided lower but relatively good performance, while model extrapolation performed poorly when compared with interpolation. Generalized dissimilarity modelling showed a predominant effect of geographical distance on compositional variation, complemented with the environmental predictors that also influenced habitat suitability.Main conclusions
Correlative approaches typically used for modelling the distribution of individual species are also useful for delineating the potential area of occupancy of community types at the continental scale, when using consistent definitions of the modelled entity and high data completeness. The combination of CDMs with GDM further improves the understanding of diversity patterns of plant communities, providing spatially explicit information for mapping vegetation diversity and related habitat types at large scales.12.
How to fit the distribution of apex scavengers into land‐abandonment scenarios? The Cinereous vulture in the Mediterranean biome 下载免费PDF全文
Isabel García‐Barón Ainara Cortés‐Avizanda Peter H. Verburg Tiago A. Marques Rubén Moreno‐Opo Henrique M. Pereira José A. Donázar 《Diversity & distributions》2018,24(7):1018-1031
Aim
Farmland abandonment or “ecological rewilding” shapes species distribution and ecological process ultimately affecting the biodiversity and functionality of ecosystems. Land abandonment predictions based on alternative future socioeconomic scenarios allow foretell the future of biota in Europe. From here, we predict how these forecasts may affect large‐scale distribution of the Cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus), an apex scavenger closely linked to Mediterranean agro‐grazing systems.Location
Iberian Peninsula.Methods
Firstly, we modelled nest‐site and foraging habitat selection in relation to variables quantifying physiography, trophic resources and human disturbance. Secondly, we evaluate to what extent land abandonment may affect the life traits of the species and finally we determined how potential future distribution of the species would vary according to asymmetric socioeconomic land‐abandonment predictions for year 2040.Results
Cinereous vultures selected breeding areas with steep slopes and low human presence whereas foraging areas are characterized by high abundance of European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and wild ungulates. Liberalization of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) could potentially transform positively 66% of the current nesting habitat, favouring the recovery of mature forest. Contrarily, land abandonment would negatively affect the 63% of the current foraging habitat reducing the availability of preferred food resources (wild European rabbit). On the other hand, the maintenance of the CAP would determine lower frequencies (24%–22%) of nesting and foraging habitat change.Main conclusions
Land abandonment may result into opposite effects on the focal species because of the increase in nesting habitats and wild ungulates populations and, on the other hand, lower availability of open areas with poorer densities of European rabbits. Land‐abandonment models’ scenarios are still coarse‐grained; the apparition of new human uses in natural areas may take place at small‐sized and medium‐sized scales, ultimately adding complexity to the prediction on the future of biota and ecosystems.13.
Assessing habitat loss and fragmentation and their effects on population viability of forest specialist birds: Linking biogeographical and population approaches 下载免费PDF全文
Mario A. Carvajal Alberto J. Alaniz Cecilia Smith‐Ramírez Kathryn E. Sieving 《Diversity & distributions》2018,24(6):820-830
Aim
Biogeographic approaches usually have been developed apart from population ecology, resulting in predictive models without key parameters needed to account for reproductive and behavioural limitations on dispersal. Our aim was to incorporate fully spatially explicit population traits into a classic species distribution model (SDM) using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), aiming at conservation purposes.Location
Southern South America.Methods
Our analysis incorporates the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on population viability and therefore provides insights into how much spatially explicit population traits can improve the SDM prediction of habitable habitat. We utilized a well‐studied focal endemic bird of South American temperate rainforests (Scelorchilus rubecula). First, at a large scale, we assessed the historical extent habitat based on climate envelopes in an SDM. Second, we used a land cover change analysis at a regional scale to account for recent habitat loss and fragmentation. Third, we used empirically derived criteria to predict population responses to fragmented forest landscapes to identify actual losses of habitat and population. Then we selected three sites of high conservation value in southern Chile and applied our population model. Finally, we discuss the degree to which spatially explicit population traits can improve the SDM output without intervening in the modelling process itself.Results
We found a historical habitat loss of 39.12% and an additional forest cover loss of 3.03% during 2000–2014; the latter occurred with a high degree of fragmentation, reducing the overall estimation of (1) carrying capacity by ?82.4%, ?33.1% and ?45.1% and (2) estimated number of pairs on viable populations by ?84.1%, ?33.0% and ?54.6% on the three selected sites.Main conclusion
We conclude that our approach sharpened the SDM prediction on environmental suitability by 54.4%, adjusting the habitable area by adding population parameters through GIS, and allowing to incorporate other phenomena as fragmentation and habitat loss.14.
Thomas Mang Franz Essl Dietmar Moser Ingrid Kleinbauer Stefan Dullinger 《Diversity & distributions》2018,24(5):652-665
Aim
We develop a novel modelling framework for analysing the spatio‐temporal spread of biological invasions. The framework integrates different invasion drivers and disentangles their roles in determining observed invasion patterns by fitting models to historical distribution data. As a case study application, we analyse the spread of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia).Location
Central Europe.Methods
A lattice system represents actual landscapes with environmental heterogeneity. Modelling covers the spatio‐temporal invasion sequence in this grid and integrates the effects of environmental conditions on local invasion suitability, the role of invaded cells and spatially implicit “background” introductions as propagule sources, within‐cell invasion level bulk‐up and multiple dispersal means. A modular framework design facilitates flexible numerical representation of the modelled invasion processes and customization of the model complexity. We used the framework to build and contrast increasingly complex models, and fitted them using a Bayesian inference approach with parameters estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).Results
All modelled invasion drivers codetermined the A. artemisiifolia invasion pattern. Inferences about individual drivers depended on which processes were modelled concurrently, and hence changed both quantitatively and qualitatively between models. Among others, the roles of environmental variables were assessed substantially differently subject to whether models included explicit source‐recipient cell relationships, spatio‐temporal variability in source cell strength and human‐mediated dispersal means. The largest fit improvements were found by integrating filtering effects of the environment and spatio‐temporal availability of propagule sources.Main conclusions
Our modelling framework provides a straightforward means to build integrated invasion models and address hypotheses about the roles and mutual relationships of different putative invasion drivers. Its statistical nature and generic design make it suitable for studying many observed invasions. For efficient invasion modelling, it is important to represent changes in spatio‐temporal propagule supply by explicitly tracking the species’ colonization sequence and establishment of new populations.15.
Higher spring temperatures increase food scarcity and limit the current and future distributions of crossbills 下载免费PDF全文
Eduardo T. Mezquida Jens‐Christian Svenning Ron W. Summers Craig W. Benkman 《Diversity & distributions》2018,24(4):473-484
Aim
Understanding how climate affects species distributions remains a major challenge, with the relative importance of direct physiological effects versus biotic interactions still poorly understood. We focus on three species of resource specialists (crossbill Loxia finches) to assess the role of climate in determining the seasonal availability of their food, the importance of climate and the occurrence of their food plants for explaining their current distributions, and to predict changes in their distributions under future climate change scenarios.Location
Europe.Methods
We used datasets on the timing of seed fall in European Scots pine Pinus sylvestris forests (where different crossbill species occur) to estimate seed fall phenology and climate data to determine its influence on spatial and temporal variation in the timing of seed fall to provide a link between climate and seed scarcity for crossbills. We used large‐scale datasets on crossbill distribution, cover of the conifers relied on by the three crossbill species and climate variables associated with timing of seed fall, to assess their relative importance for predicting crossbill distributions. We used species distribution modelling to predict changes in their distributions under climate change projections for 2070.Results
We found that seed fall occurred 1.5–2 months earlier in southern Europe than in Sweden and Scotland and was associated with variation in spring maximum temperatures and precipitation. These climate variables and area covered with conifers relied on by the crossbills explained much of their observed distributions. Projections under global change scenarios revealed reductions in potential crossbill distributions, especially for parrot crossbills.Main conclusions
Ranges of resource specialists are directly influenced by the presence of their food plants, with climate conditions further affecting resource availability and the window of food scarcity indirectly. Future distributions will be determined by tree responses to changing climatic conditions and the impact of climate on seed fall phenology.16.
Species traits suggest European mammals facing the greatest climate change are also least able to colonize new locations 下载免费PDF全文
Aim
The risk climate change poses to biodiversity is often estimated by forecasting the areas that will be climatically suitable for species in the future and measuring the distance of the “range shifts” species would have to make to reach these areas. Species’ traits could indicate their capacity to undergo range shifts. However, it is not clear how range‐shift capacity influences risk. We used traits from a recent evidence review to measure the relative potential of species to track changing climatic conditions.Location
Europe.Time period
Baseline period (1961–1990) and forecast period (2035–2064).Major taxa studied
62 mammal species.Methods
We modelled species distributions using two general circulation models and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to calculate three metrics of “exposure” to climate change: range area gained, range area lost and distance moved by the range margin. We identified traits that could inform species’ range‐shift capacity (i.e., potential to establish new populations and proliferate, and thus undertake range shifts), from a recent evidence‐based framework. The traits represent ecological generalization and reproductive strategy. We ranked species according to each metric of exposure and range‐shift capacity, calculating sensitivity to ranking methods, and synthesized both exposure and range‐shift capacity into “risk syndromes.”Results
Many species studied whose survival depends on colonizing new areas were relatively unlikely to undergo range shifts. Under the worst‐case scenario, 62% of species studied were relatively highly exposed. 47% were highly exposed and had relatively low range‐shift capacity. Only 14% of species faced both low exposure and high range‐shift capacity. Both range‐shift and exposure metrics had a greater effect on risk assessments than climate models.Main conclusions
The degree to which species’ potential ranges will be altered by climate change often does not correspond to species’ range‐shift capacities. Both exposure and range‐shift capacity should be considered when evaluating biodiversity risk from climate change.17.
Oliver Floerl Graham Rickard Graeme Inglis Helen Roulston 《Diversity & distributions》2013,19(3):257-267
Aim
We compare the present‐day global ocean climate with future climatologies based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models and examine whether changes in global ocean climate will affect the environmental similarity of New Zealand's (NZ) coastal environments to those of the rest of the world. Our underlying rationale is that environmental changes to source and recipient regions may result in changes to the risk of non‐indigenous species survival and establishment.Location
Coastlines of global continents and islands.Methods
We determined the environmental similarity (Euclidean distance) between global coastlines and north‐east NZ for 2005 and 2050 using data on coastal seawater surface temperature and salinity. Anticipated climate models from the SRES A1B scenario family were used to derive coastal climatologies for 2050.Results
During the next decades, most global regions will experience an increase in coastal seawater surface temperatures and a decline or increase in salinity. This will result in changes in the similarity of other coastal environments to north‐east NZ's coastal areas. Global regions that presently have high environmental similarity to north‐east NZ will variously retain this level of similarity, become more similar or decrease in environmental similarity. Some regions that presently have a low level of similarity will become more similar to NZ. Our models predict a widespread decrease in the seasonal variation in environmental similarity to NZ.Main conclusions
Anticipated changes in the global ocean climate have the potential to change the risk of survival and establishment of non‐indigenous marine species arriving to NZ from some global regions. Predicted changes to global human transport networks over the coming decades highlight the importance of incorporating climate change into conservation planning and modelling.18.
Climate versus weather extremes: Temporal predictor resolution matters for future rather than current regional species distribution models 下载免费PDF全文
Stephan Feldmeier Lukas Schefczyk Axel Hochkirch Stefan Lötters Manfred A. Pfeifer Günther Heinemann Michael Veith 《Diversity & distributions》2018,24(8):1047-1060
Aim
Climate is considered a major driver of species distributions. Long‐term climatic means are commonly used as predictors in correlative species distribution models (SDMs). However, this coarse temporal resolution does not reflect local conditions that populations experience, such as short‐term weather extremes, which may have a strong impact on population dynamics and local distributions. We here compare the performance of climate‐ and weather‐based predictors in regional SDMs and their influence on future predictions, which are increasingly used in conservation planning.Location
South‐western Germany.Methods
We built different SDMs for 20 Orthoptera species based on three predictor sets at a regional scale for current and future climate scenarios. We calculated standard bioclimatic variables and yearly and seasonal sets of climate change indicating variables of weather extremes. As the impact of extreme events may be stronger for habitat specialists than for generalists, we distinguished species’ degrees of specialization. We computed linear mixed‐effects models to identify significant effects of algorithm, predictor set and specialization on model performance and calculated correlations and geographical niche overlap between spatial predictions.Results
Current predictions were rather similar among all predictor sets, but highly variable for future climate scenarios. Bioclimatic and seasonal weather predictors performed slightly better than yearly weather predictors, though performance differences were minor. We found no evidence that specialists are more sensitive to weather extremes than generalists.Main conclusions
For future projections of species distributions, SDM predictor selection should not solely be based on current performances and predictions. As long‐term climate and short‐term weather predictors represent different environmental drivers of a species’ distribution, we argue to interpret diverging future projections as complements. Even if similar current performances and predictions might imply their equivalency, favouring one predictor set neglects important aspects of future distributions and might mislead conservation decisions based on them.19.
Luís Reino Pedro Beja Miguel B. Araújo Stéphane Dray Pedro Segurado 《Diversity & distributions》2013,19(4):423-432
Aim
Although the negative effects of habitat fragmentation have been widely documented at the landscape scale, much less is known about its impacts on species distributions at the biogeographical scale. We hypothesize that fragmentation influences the large‐scale distribution of area‐ and edge‐sensitive species by limiting their occurrence in regions with fragmented habitats , despite otherwise favourable environmental conditions. We test this hypothesis by assessing the interplay of climate and landscape factors influencing the distribution of the calandra lark, a grassland specialist that is highly sensitive to habitat fragmentation.Location
Iberia Peninsula, Europe.Methods
Ecological niche modelling was used to investigate the relative influence of climate/topography, landscape fragmentation and spatial structure on calandra lark distribution. Modelling assumed explicitly a hierarchically structured effect among explanatory variables, with climate/topography operating at broader spatial scales than landscape variables. An eigenvector‐based spatial filtering approach was used to cancel bias introduced by spatial autocorrelation. The information theoretic approach was used in model selection, and variation partitioning was used to isolate the unique and shared effects of sets of explanatory variables.Results
Climate and topography were the most influential variables shaping the distribution of calandra lark, but incorporating landscape metrics contributed significantly to model improvement. The probability of calandra lark occurrence increased with total habitat area and declined with the number of patches and edge density. Variation partitioning showed a strong overlap between variation explained by climate/topography and landscape variables. After accounting for spatial structure in species distribution, the explanatory power of environmental variables remained largely unchanged.Main conclusions
We have shown here that landscape fragmentation can influence species distributions at the biogeographical scale. Incorporating fragmentation metrics into large‐scale ecological niche models may contribute for a better understanding of mechanism driving species distributions and for improving predictive modelling of range shifts associated with land use and climate changes.20.
David L. Vergara‐Tabares Martjan Lammertink Ernesto G. Verga Alejandro A. Schaaf Javier Nori 《Diversity & distributions》2018,24(5):640-651