The strength of assortative mating for flowering date and its basis in individual variation in flowering schedule

Although it has been widely asserted that plants mate assortatively by flowering time, there is virtually no published information on the strength or causes of phenological assortment in natural populations. When strong, assortative mating can accelerate the evolution of plant reproductive phenology through its inflationary effect on genetic variance. We estimated potential assortative mating for flowering date in 31 old‐field species in Ontario, Canada. For each species, we constructed a matrix of pairwise mating probabilities from the individual flowering schedules, that is the number of flower deployed on successive dates. The matrix was used to estimate the phenotypic correlation between mates, ρ, for flowering date. We also developed a measure of flowering synchrony within species, S, based upon the eigenstructure of the mating matrix. The mean correlation between pollen recipients and potential donors for flowering date was  = 0.31 (range: 0.05–0.63). A strong potential for assortative mating was found among species with high variance in flowering date, flowering schedules of short duration and skew towards early flower deployment. Flowering synchrony, S, was negatively correlated with potential assortment (r = ?0.49), but we go on to show that although low synchrony is a necessary condition for phenological assortative mating, it may not be sufficient to induce assortment for a given phenological trait. The potential correlation between mates showed no seasonal trend; thus, as climate change imposes selection on phenology through longer growing seasons, spring‐flowering species are no more likely to experience an accelerated evolutionary response than summer species.     

Rainfall and flowering synchrony in a tropical shrub: Variable selection on the flowering time ofErythroxylum havanense

Summary We tested the adaptive significance of flowering synchrony by means of a quantitative analysis of selection and by flowering induction experiments with the deciduous shrubErythroxylum havanense. Temporal schedules of flower and fruit production were determined for a local population (in three sites) in a Mexican seasonal forest for 2 years (1987–1988). The consequences of natural variation in flowering time (flowering initiation day) on maternal reproductive success (fecundity) were evaluated. We observed high levels of inter- and intraindividual flowering synchrony in 1987, but not in 1988 and this contrast was related to differences in rainfall patterns between the two years. A significant proportion (15.4%) of the phenotypic variation in flowering initiation day was accounted for by environmental variance. The expression of phenotypic variance of flowering time and, consequently, the opportunity for selection to act, are controlled by annual variation in rainfall. Despite the between-year difference in flowering synchrony, we detected a relatively intense directional selection on flowering initiation day in both years, but selection coefficients were of opposite sign (standardized directional gradients were –0.326 and 0.333 for 1987 and 1988, respectively). For both years there was a significant relationship between individual relative fitness and the number of neighbouring flowering plants in a given day, suggesting positive frequency-dependent selection.     

Phenotypic selection on flowering phenology and size in two dioecious plant species with different pollen vectors

Dioecious plants may be pollinated biotically by animals or abiotically via wind or water currents. It has been hypothesized that these two types of pollen vectors might impose contrasting selective pressures on plant flowering phenology. In the present study we describe the flowering phenology of two sympatric dioecious species with contrasting pollination modes: Mercurialis perennis (wind‐pollinated) and Tamus communis (insect‐pollinated). We estimated selection differentials and gradients for flowering time and flowering synchrony. As flowering time might depend on the accumulation of enough internal resources, we also estimated direct and indirect selection on plant size. Both species have male‐biased sexual ratios, and males are bigger and produce larger flower displays than females, but only in T. communis do males bloom earlier and for longer than females. Selection gradients suggest that selection tends to favor early‐flowering females of T. communis. There is no evidence of direct current selection on the flowering phenology of M. perennis. Intersexual differences in phenology fit with sex allocation and sexual selection theories. As we hypothesized, phenology of the animal‐pollinated species is under stronger selection than that of the wind‐pollinated species and we discuss the potential role of pollen vectors in shaping the flowering phenologies of the study species.     

Selection on flowering time and floral display in an alpine and a lowland population of Arabidopsis lyrata

To determine whether population differentiation in flowering time is consistent with differences in current selection, we quantified phenotypic selection acting through female reproductive success on flowering phenology and floral display in two Scandinavian populations of the outcrossing, perennial herb Arabidopsis lyrata in two years. One population was located in an alpine environment strongly affected by grazing, whereas the other was close to sea level and only moderately affected by herbivory. Multiple regression models indicated directional selection for early end of flowering in one year in the lowland population, and directional selection for early start of flowering in one year in the alpine population. As expected, there was selection for more inflorescences in the lowland population. However, in the alpine population, plants with many inflorescences were selectively grazed and the number of inflorescences produced was negatively related to female fitness in one year and not significantly related to female fitness in the second year. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that genetic differentiation in flowering phenology between the study populations is adaptive, and indicate that interactions with selective grazers may strongly influence selection on floral display in A. lyrata.     

POLLINATOR-MEDIATED SELECTION ON FLORAL DISPLAY AND FLOWERING TIME IN THE PERENNIAL HERB ARABIDOPSIS LYRATA

The evolution of floral display and flowering time in animal-pollinated plants is commonly attributed to pollinator-mediated selection. Yet, the causes of selection on flowering phenology and traits contributing to floral display have rarely been tested experimentally in natural populations. We quantified phenotypic selection on morphological and phenological characters in the perennial, outcrossing herb Arabidopsis lyrata in two years using female reproductive success as a proxy of fitness. To determine whether selection on floral display and flowering phenology can be attributed to interactions with pollinators, selection was quantified both for open-pollinated controls and for plants receiving supplemental hand-pollination. We documented directional selection for many flowers, large petals, late start of flowering, and early end of flowering. Seed output was pollen-limited in both years and supplemental hand-pollination reduced the magnitude of selection on number of flowers, and reversed the direction of selection on end of flowering. The results demonstrate that interactions with pollinators may affect the strength of selection on floral display and the direction of selection on phenology of flowering in natural plant populations. They thus support the contention that pollinators can drive the evolution of both floral display and flowering time.     

Dissecting components of flowering pattern: size effects on female fitness

Flowering synchrony is essential for plant reproductive success, especially in the case of small‐sized populations of self‐incompatible species. Closely related to synchrony, flowering intensity influences pollinator attraction and pollinator movements. Thus, a high flowering intensity may increase pollinator attraction but, at the same time, may also increase the probability of geitonogamous pollinations. Depending on the mating system, the female fitness of plants in small populations may be affected by both the positive effects of higher flowering synchrony and pollinator attraction and the negative effects of geitonogamous pollinations induced by a high flowering intensity. It was hypothesized that different‐sized plants in a population would show contrasting flowering patterns, resulting in differences in pollinator behaviour. These influences could result in differences in mating and female reproductive success. This hypothesis was tested by studying the flowering pattern of Erodium paularense (Geraniaceae), a rare and endangered endemic of central Spain. The temporal distribution of flower production was explored throughout the reproductive season, and the probability of xenogamy and geitonogamy and their relationship to plant size and fitness components were calculated. The analysis of this partially self‐compatible species showed diverse flowering patterns related to different plant sizes. Small plants produced a larger number of seeds per fruit in spite of having lower values of flowering synchrony. By contrast, large plants produced a larger number of seeds from geitonogamous pollinations. The effect of different flower displays and outcrossing rates on seed set varied throughout the season in the different groups. Our findings highlight the relevance of individual plant size‐dependent phenology on female reproductive success and, in particular, on the relationship between flowering synchrony and fitness. © 2008 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2008, 156 , 227–236.     

Divergent selection on flowering time contributes to local adaptation in Mimulus guttatus populations

The timing of when to initiate reproduction is an important transition in any organism's life cycle. There is much variation in flowering time among populations, but we do not know to what degree this variation contributes to local adaptation. Here we use a reciprocal transplant experiment to examine the presence of divergent natural selection for flowering time and local adaptation between two distinct populations of Mimulus guttatus. We plant both parents and hybrids (to tease apart differences in suites of associated parental traits) between these two populations into each of the two native environments and measure floral, vegetative, life-history, and fitness characters to assess which traits are under selection at each site. Analysis of fitness components indicates that each of these plant populations is locally adapted. We obtain striking evidence for divergent natural selection on date of first flower production at these two sites. Early flowering is favored at the montane site, which is inhabited by annual plants and characterized by dry soils in midsummer, whereas intermediate (though later) flowering dates are selectively favored at the temperate coastal site, which is inhabited by perennial plants and is almost continually moist. Divergent selection on flowering time contributes to local adaptation between these two populations of M. guttatus, suggesting that genetic differentiation in the timing of reproduction may also serve as a partial reproductive isolating barrier to gene flow among populations.     

Relationships between flowering phenology,plant size and reproductive success in shape Lotus corniculatus (Fabaceae)

Over three years the flowering phenology of individuals of Lotus corniculatus has been studied in relation to fruit set and seed predation to determine the relationships between four components of flowering time, plant size and reproductive success. Timings of first and peak flowering, and duration and synchrony of flowering differed between individuals in the same years. Between years, timing of first flowering was highly correlated for the same individuals, and was closely correlated with plant size and duration of flowering–larger plants flowered earlier and for a longer period. Peak flowering and synchrony were not correlated between-years for individuals.Fruit production and seed predation were correlated with some of the components of flowering phenology in some years, but not in others. The inconstancy of these relationships suggests that directional or stabilising selection is not acting consistently on the aspects of reproductive success studied in this work. The inconstancy of selection may result in the rather asynchronous flowering phenologies of individuals of L. corniculatus observed.We emphasize the importance of studying different components of flowering phenology in relation to individual plant size over several seasons. This work has shown that plant size not only has a direct effect on individual plant fecundity but also can influence flowering time and hence indirectly affect reproductive output.     

Phenotypic selection on flowering phenology and pollination efficiency traits between Primula populations with different pollinator assemblages

Floral traits have largely been attributed to phenotypic selection in plant–pollinator interactions. However, the strength of this link has rarely been ascertained with real pollinators. We conducted pollinator observations and estimated selection through female fitness on flowering phenology and floral traits between two Primula secundiflora populations. We quantified pollinator‐mediated selection by subtracting estimates of selection gradients of plants receiving supplemental hand pollination from those of plants receiving open pollination. There was net directional selection for an earlier flowering start date at populations where the dominant pollinators were syrphid flies, and flowering phenology was also subjected to stabilized quadratic selection. However, a later flowering start date was significantly selected at populations where the dominant pollinators were legitimate (normal pollination through the corolla tube entrance) and illegitimate bumblebees (abnormal pollination through nectar robbing hole which located at the corolla tube), and flowering phenology was subjected to disruptive quadratic selection. Wider corolla tube entrance diameter was selected at both populations. Furthermore, the strength of net directional selection on flowering start date and corolla tube entrance diameter was stronger at the population where the dominant pollinators were syrphid flies. Pollinator‐mediated selection explained most of the between‐population variations in the net directional selection on flowering phenology and corolla tube entrance diameter. Our results suggested the important influence of pollinator‐mediated selection on floral evolution. Variations in pollinator assemblages not only resulted in variation in the direction of selection but also the strength of selection on floral traits.     

Consequences of sexually dimorphic timing of emergence and flowering in Silene latifolia

1 Males and females of dioecious plant species often differ in a variety of secondary characteristics, such as size, flower number and flowering time, suggesting that dioecious species have sex-specific selection histories. However, a potential source of these dimorphic traits is age differences between males and females. By sowing 3000 seeds of the dioecious perennial, Silene latifolia (Caryophyllaceae), on a single day, we were able to assess the contribution of sex differences in emergence time to the development of sexually dimorphic adult traits.
2 Females emerged before males in our experimental field population, but on average males flowered first. Age differences between males and females did not therefore cause the earlier flowering of males.
3 The consequence of the detected differences in emergence and phenology between males and females was explored by path analysis. Emergence time had a strong direct effect on flower production as well as an indirect effect through flowering time. The regression coefficient of flowering time on emergence time was significantly larger for male plants.
4 A phenotypic selection analysis revealed that seedlings emerging early suffered greater mortality than those emerging later. Seedlings emerging early, however, developed into plants with more flowers, indicating that there was a trade-off between survivorship and reproductive performance. Seeds with intermediate emergence times had the highest total fitness, indicating the presence of stabilizing selection. Despite the strong mortality selection against early emergers, we detected no shift in the sex ratio compared with the sex ratio of seeds matured under low-mortality greenhouse conditions.     

Climate drives among‐year variation in natural selection on flowering time

To predict long‐term responses to climate change, we need to understand how changes in temperature and precipitation elicit both immediate phenotypic responses and changes in natural selection. We used 22 years of data for the perennial herb Lathyrus vernus to examine how climate influences flowering phenology and phenotypic selection on phenology. Plants flowered earlier in springs with higher temperatures and higher precipitation. Early flowering was associated with a higher fitness in nearly all years, but selection for early flowering was significantly stronger in springs with higher temperatures and lower precipitation. Climate influenced selection through trait distributions, mean fitness and trait?fitness relationships, the latter accounting for most of the among‐year variation in selection. Our results show that climate both induces phenotypic responses and alters natural selection, and that the change in the optimal phenotype might be either weaker, as for spring temperature, or stronger, as for precipitation, than the optimal response.     

Selection on flowering time in Mediterranean high-mountain plants under global warming

Under climate warming, plants will undergo novel selective pressures to adjust reproductive timing. Adjustment between reproductive phenology and environment is expected to be higher in arctic and alpine habitats because the growing season is considerably short. As early- and late-flowering species reproduce under very different environmental conditions, selective pressures on flowering phenology and potential effects of climate change are likely to differ between them. However, there is no agreement on the magnitude of the benefits and costs of early- vs. late-flowering species under a global warming scenario. In spite of its relevance, phenotypic selection on flowering phenology has rarely been explored in alpine plants and never in Mediterranean high mountain species, where selective pressures are very different due to the summer drought imposed over the short growth season. We hypothesized that late-flowering plants in Mediterranean mountains should present stronger selective pressures towards early onset of reproduction than early-flowering species, because less water is available in the soil as growing season progresses. We performed selection analyses on flowering onset and duration in two high mountain species of contrasting phenology. Since phenotypic selection can be highly context-dependent, we studied several populations of each species for 2 years, covering their local altitudinal ranges and their different microhabitats. Surrogates of biotic selective agents, like fruitset for pollinators and flower and fruit loss for flower and seed predators, were included in the analysis. Differences between the early- and the late-flowering species were less than expected. A consistent negative correlational selection of flowering onset and duration was found affecting plant fitness, i.e., plants that bloomed earlier flowered for longer periods improving plant fitness. Nevertheless, the late-flowering species may experience higher risks under climate warming because in extremely warm and dry years the earlier season does not bring about a longer flowering duration due to summer drought.     

Within‐plant variation in reproductive investment: consequences for selection on flowering time

Variation among the leaves, flowers or fruit produced by a plant is often regarded as a nuisance to the experimenter and an impediment to selection. Here, we suggest that within‐plant variation can drive selection on other plant‐level traits. We examine within‐plant variation in floral sex allocation and in fruit set and predict that such variation generates variation in male success among plants, thereby driving selection on flowering time. We tested this prediction in a simulation model estimating selection on flowering time through male fitness when floral sex allocation and/or fruit set vary directionally among flowers on plants. We parameterized the model through a quantitative literature survey of within‐plant change in sex allocation. As predicted, within‐plant variation in floral sex allocation and in fruit set probability can generate selection on flowering time through male fitness. Declining fruit set from first to last flowers on plants, as occurs in many species, selected for early flowering onset through male fitness. This result was robust to self‐incompatibility and to varying returns on male versus female investment. Selection caused by declining fruit set was strong enough to reverse the selection for late flowering that can be caused by intrafloral protandry. Our model provides testable predictions regarding selection on flowering time through male fitness. The model also establishes the intriguing possibility that within‐plant variation may influence selection on other traits, regardless of whether that variation is under selection itself.     

Divergent selection on flowering phenology but not on floral morphology between two closely related orchids

Closely related species often differ in traits that influence reproductive success, suggesting that divergent selection on such traits contribute to the maintenance of species boundaries. Gymnadenia conopsea ss. and Gymnadenia densiflora are two closely related, perennial orchid species that differ in (a) floral traits important for pollination, including flowering phenology, floral display, and spur length, and (b) dominant pollinators. If plant–pollinator interactions contribute to the maintenance of trait differences between these two taxa, we expect current divergent selection on flowering phenology and floral morphology between the two species. We quantified phenotypic selection via female fitness in one year on flowering start, three floral display traits (plant height, number of flowers, and corolla size) and spur length, in six populations of G. conopsea s.s. and in four populations of G. densiflora. There was indication of divergent selection on flowering start in the expected direction, with selection for earlier flowering in two populations of the early‐flowering G. conopsea s.s. and for later flowering in one population of the late‐flowering G. densiflora. No divergent selection on floral morphology was detected, and there was no significant stabilizing selection on any trait in the two species. The results suggest ongoing adaptive differentiation of flowering phenology, strengthening this premating reproductive barrier between the two species. Synthesis: This study is among the first to test whether divergent selection on floral traits contribute to the maintenance of species differences between closely related plants. Phenological isolation confers a substantial potential for reproductive isolation, and divergent selection on flowering time can thus greatly influence reproductive isolation and adaptive differentiation.     

Herbivory and natural selection on flowering phenology in wild sunflower, Helianthus annuus

Plant fitness is strongly affected by flowering phenology, and there are several ecological factors that are thought to shape the distribution of flowering times. One relatively underexamined factor is the timing and intensity of attack by herbivores that feed on flowers or developing seeds. This study tests the hypothesis that herbivores that feed on developing seeds of wild sunflower, Helianthus annuus (Asteraceae), impose selection on flowering phenology. First, the study population was found to contain genetic variation for mean date of flowering, so this trait could evolve if natural selection were operating. Next, the phenological pattern of abundance of five seed-feeding herbivores was documented. Damage by three herbivores, Haplorhynchites aeneus (Cucurlionidae), the head-clipping weevil, Homoeosoma electellum (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), the sunflower moth, and Suleima helianthana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), the sunflower bud moth, was highest early in the flowering season, and declined as the season progressed. Damage by one herbivore, the seed fly Gymnocarena diffusa (Diptera: Tephrididae), was lowest early in the flowering season and increased as the season progressed. Finally, damage by two seed weevils, Smicronyx fulvus and S. sordidus (Curculionidae), whose damage was not distinguished, was constant through the flowering period. Third, damage by Haplorhynchites, Homoeosoma, and Suleima was found to be detrimental to plant fitness, suggesting that plants that flower when these herbivores are not abundant should have higher fitness. Finally, two phenotypic selection analyses were performed. The first included damage by Homoeosoma and Suleima, as well as flowering date, leaf area, and inflorescence diameter, as characters predicting plant fitness. In this analysis directional selection was found to act to decrease damage by the two herbivores, but did not act on flowering date. The second selection analysis was identical except that damage by the two herbivores was not included. In this analysis significant directional selection was found to favor later-flowering plants. Comparison of these two analyses suggests that all selection on flowering phenology is attributable to damage by Homoeosoma and Suleima: plants that flower later avoid damage by these two herbivores. While other influences on flowering phenology, such as pollination, mate availability, and seasonality, have been well documented, this study is one of few to demonstrate natural selection on flowering phenology that is a direct consequence of insect attack. Received: 17 November 1998 / Accepted: 18 July 1999     

Directional selection on initial flowering date in Phlox drummondii (Polemoniaceae)

The fitness effects due to initial flowering date in Phlox drummondii were determined for three populations in central Texas (USA) over 3 yr (1990-1992). Mean fitness (seed set) always decreased with the later initiation of flowering. The likelihood of a plant fruiting differed with flowering date in five of the six instances (population by year combinations). Though plants that initiated flowering later tended to have spent more time in the vegetative stage and tended to die later in the year than did earlier flowering plants, this was not sufficient to overcome the reproductive penalties of flowering late. Plants that initiated flowering later in the season spent less time in the adult phase and were smaller. The mean number of flowers, fruits, and seeds per flowering plant always decreased with later flowering. Fruit set was negatively correlated with flowering date in four of the six population by year combinations. Nonparametric fitness functions were used to summarize predicted fitness among different initial flowering dates for each population on a yearly basis. Predicted mean fitness always declined nonlinearly with later flowering; the earliest flowering plants always had the highest predicted fitness. These fitness functions describe directional selection for the early initiation of flowering.     

Natural soil microbes alter flowering phenology and the intensity of selection on flowering time in a wild Arabidopsis relative

Plant phenology is known to depend on many different environmental variables, but soil microbial communities have rarely been acknowledged as possible drivers of flowering time. Here, we tested separately the effects of four naturally occurring soil microbiomes and their constituent soil chemistries on flowering phenology and reproductive fitness of Boechera stricta, a wild relative of Arabidopsis. Flowering time was sensitive to both microbes and the abiotic properties of different soils; varying soil microbiota also altered patterns of selection on flowering time. Thus, soil microbes potentially contribute to phenotypic plasticity of flowering time and to differential selection observed between habitats. We also describe a method to dissect the microbiome into single axes of variation that can help identify candidate organisms whose abundance in soil correlates with flowering time. This approach is broadly applicable to search for microbial community members that alter biological characteristics of interest.     

Selection for phenotypic divergence between diploid and autotetraploid Heuchera grossulariifolia

Much of the diversity of flowering plants is associated with genomic duplication through polyploidy. Little is known, however, about the evolutionary mechanisms responsible for the diversification of novel polyploid lineages. We evaluated the possibility that divergence is driven by natural selection by estimating the strength of phenotypic selection acting on three floral traits in sympatric populations of diploid and autotetraploid Heuchera grossulariifolia over three years. Our results demonstrate consistent directional selection for increasing scape length and floral display in both diploid and tetraploid populations. In contrast, selection acting on flowering phenology varied across year and ploidy. Specifically, selection was found to favor late-flowering diploids in 2001 and 2002 but early-flowering tetraploids in 2003. We investigated the mechanistic basis of divergent selection for flowering phenology in 2003 by estimating the relationship between plant flowering phenology and the probability of intercytotype pollinator movement. The results demonstrated that less divergent tetraploids were significantly more likely to experience intercytotype flights than were more divergent tetraploids. This result is consistent with the pattern of phenotypic selection observed. Taken together, our results suggest that divergence of polyploids and their diploid progenitors may be driven by a process analogous to reinforcement whereby selection favors phenotypes that reduce the probability of intercytotype matings with reduced fertility.     

Herbarium records identify sensitivity of flowering phenology of eucalypts to climate: Implications for species response to climate change

Flowering phenology is very sensitive to climate and with increasing global warming the flowering time of plants is shifting to earlier or later dates. Changes in flowering times may affect species reproductive success, associated phenological events, species synchrony, and community composition. Long‐term data on phenological events can provide key insights into the impacts of climate on phenology. For Australia, however, limited data availability restricts our ability to assess the impacts of climate change on plant phenology. To address this limitation other data sources must be explored such as the use of herbarium specimens to conduct studies on flowering phenology. This study uses herbarium specimens for investigating the flowering phenology of five dominant and commercially important Eucalyptus species of south‐eastern Australia and the consequences of climate variability and change on flowering phenology. Relative to precipitation and air humidity, mean temperature of the preceding 3 months was the most influential factor on the flowering time for all species. In response to a temperature increment of 1°C, a shift in the timing of flowering of 14.1–14.9 days was predicted for E. microcarpa and E. tricarpa while delays in flowering of 11.3–15.5 days were found for E. obliqua, E. radiata and E. polyanthemos. Eucalyptus polyanthemos exhibited the greatest sensitivity to climatic variables. The study demonstrates that herbarium data can be used to detect climatic signals on flowering phenology for species with a long flowering duration, such as eucalypts. The robust relationship identified between temperature and flowering phenology indicates that shifts in flowering times will occur under predicted climate change which may affect reproductive success, fitness, plant communities and ecosystems.