Predation as a probable mechanism relating winter weather to population dynamics in a North American porcupine population

An abundance index of an eastern Quebec population of North American porcupines (Erethizon dorsatum) has cycled with superimposed periodicities of 11 and 22 years from 1868 to 2000. This cycle closely followed 11- and 22-year cycles in solar irradiance and local weather (e.g., winter precipitation and spring temperature), generating the hypothesis that solar activity may affect porcupine abundance through effects on local weather. We investigated the mechanisms linking porcupine abundance to local weather conditions using a 6-year study (2000–2005) involving individual mark-recapture, radio tracking, seasonal survival analyses and identification of mortality causes. Summer (May–August) survival was high and constant over the study period, whereas winter (August–May) survival was lower and varied during the duration of our study. Variations in local winter precipitation explained 89% of the variation in winter survival. Porcupine predation rates appeared strongly related to snow conditions; 95% of depredated porcupines were killed when snow was covering the ground, and predation rates were higher in years with increased winter precipitation. Our data thus support the hypothesis that changes in predation rates under different snow conditions were the mechanism relating climate to porcupine population dynamics, via modifications of the local predator–prey interactions and impacts on porcupine winter survival. Our study adds to the growing body of evidence supporting an effect of climate on predator–prey processes. Also, it identifies one possible mechanism involved in the relationship between solar irradiance and porcupine population cycles observed at this study site over a 130-year period.     

Weather-Related Indices of Autumn– Winter Dabbling Duck Abundance in Middle North America

ABSTRACT Research on effects of key weather stimuli influencing waterfowl migration during autumn and winter is limited. We investigated relationships between changes in relative abundances of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and other dabbling ducks (Anas spp.) and weather variables at midlatitude locations in North America. We used waterfowl survey data from Missouri Conservation Areas and temperature and snow cover data from the Historical Climatology Network to evaluate competing models to explain changes in relative abundance of ducks in Missouri, USA, during autumn-winter, 1995–2005. We found that a cumulative weather severity index model (CumulativeWSI; calculated as mean daily temp - degrees C + no. of consecutive days with mean temp ≤ 0° C + snow depth + no. of consecutive days with snow cover) had the greatest weight of evidence in explaining changes in relative abundance of ducks. We concluded the CumulativeWSI reflected current and cumulative effects of ambient temperatures on energy expenditure by ducks, and snow cover and wetland icing, on food availability for ducks. The CumulativeWSI may be useful in determining potential changes in autumn-winter distributions of North American waterfowl given different climate change projections and associated changes in habitat conservation needs. Future investigations should address interactions between CumulativeWSI and landscape habitat quality, regional waterfowl populations, hunter harvest, and other anthropogenic influences to increase understanding of waterfowl migration during autumn-winter.     

Survival of resident and translocated greater sage-grouse in Strawberry Valley,Utah: A 13-year study

Survival of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) has been well described in large populations across the species range. Very little published information exists, however, on survival rates of translocated sage-grouse or grouse from a long-term (>10 yr) study. Our objectives were to estimate seasonal and annual survival rates; assess differences in survival between resident and translocated, adult and yearling, and male and female sage-grouse; identify environmental and behavioral factors associated with survival; and assess the influence of mammalian predator control on survival rates of radio-marked sage-grouse in Strawberry Valley, Utah from 1998 to 2010. We used a 2-stage model selection approach using Akaike's Information Criterion corrected for sample size (AIC_c) with known-fate models in Program MARK to evaluate the influences of seasonal, annual, demographic, and behavioral effects on survival rates of sage-grouse. We captured and fitted 535 individual sage-grouse (male and female, resident and translocated) with radio transmitters over a 13-year period and monitored them weekly. The top model of survival, which accounted for 22% of the AIC_c weight, included 3 seasons that varied by year where rates were influenced by residency, sex, and whether a female initiated a nest. A group-level covariate for the number of canids killed each year received some support as this variable improved model fit compared to identical models without it, although confidence intervals around β estimates overlapped zero slightly. All other demographic or environmental variables showed little or no support. Annual estimates of survival for females ranged between 28% and 84% depending on year and translocation source. Survival was consistently highest during the fall–winter months with a mean monthly survival rate of 0.97 (95% CI = 0.96–0.98). The lack of a control site and other potential confounding factors limit the extent of our inference with respect to predator control. Nonetheless, we suggest managers consider enhancing nesting habitat, translocating sage-grouse, and possibly controlling predators to improve survival rates of sage-grouse. © The Wildlife Society, 2013     

White-Tailed Deer,Weather and Predation: a New Understanding of Winter Severity for Predicting Deer Mortality

Variation in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) mortality during winter affects population growth in cold climates. Across the northern extent of their range, mortality increases with colder temperatures and snow. Few studies have examined the relationships between winter conditions and deer mortality, and no studies have concurrently studied this relationship for different ages of deer across multiple years and landscapes. We used recently developed cause-specific mortality models to evaluate temporal and age-class variation in deer mortality in farmland areas and compared to published results from forest areas in Wisconsin, USA, from 2011–2014. We then used temporally varying snow and temperature covariates to predict mortality trends using telemetry information from 860 deer. Cause-specific mortality in the farmland varied by age and year, similar to results from previous research in the forest. Human-related mortality was the leading cause of mortality in the farmland during most years and ranged from 4.3% to 10.3% for juveniles and 3.6% to 9.1% for adults from 2011–2014. Very little predation occurred in the farmland, and this differed from previous research in the forest where predation was the leading cause of mortality. During more severe winters (2013 and 2014), other mortality, usually associated with starvation, was the leading cause of mortality for juveniles in the farmland but not adults. In the forest, we found support for saturating effects of accumulated snow depth days >30.5 cm and accumulated temperature days >0°C on mortality. We also found support for the relationship of mortality with accumulated temperature days >0°C in the farmland but no relationship with snow depth. Deer tolerate sustained cold temperatures, but the timing of winter to spring transition is more important for deer survival in both forested and agricultural areas. In the absence of empirical survival information, managers can use our model to predict annual winter effects on deer survival, which can provide improved inference compared to traditional winter severity indices. Our results suggest changes in predator abundance may have minor influence on overwinter survival compared to winter weather. Based on mortality estimates from previous research, the highest predation rates on juvenile deer in the forest occurred when wolf (Canis lupus) counts were lowest and when wolf abundance was highest, juvenile deer predation rates were lowest. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Analysis of regional species distribution models based on radio-telemetry datasets from multiple small-scale studies

The identification of core habitat areas and resulting prediction maps are vital tools for land managers. Often, agencies have large datasets from multiple studies over time that could be combined for a more informed and complete picture of a species. Colorado Parks and Wildlife has a large database for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) including 11 radio-telemetry studies completed over 12 years (1997–2008) across northwestern Colorado. We divided the 49,470-km² study area into 1-km² grids with the number of sage-grouse locations in each grid cell that contained at least 1 location counted as the response variable. We used a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) using land cover variables as fixed effects and individual birds and populations as random effects to predict greater sage-grouse location counts during breeding, summer, and winter seasons. The mixed effects model enabled us to model correlations that may exist in grouped data (e.g., correlations among individuals and populations). We found only individual groupings accounted for variation in the summer and breeding seasons, but not the winter season. The breeding and summer seasonal models predicted sage-grouse presence in the currently delineated populations for Colorado, but we found little evidence supporting a winter season model. According to our models, about 50% of the study area in Colorado is considered highly or moderately suitable habitat in both the breeding and summer seasons. As oil and gas development and other landscape changes occur in this portion of Colorado, knowledge of where management actions can be accomplished or possible restoration can occur becomes more critical. These seasonal models provide data-driven, distribution maps that managers and biologists can use for identification and exploration when investigating greater sage-grouse issues across the Colorado range. Using historic data for future decisions on species management while accounting for issues found from combining datasets allows land managers the flexibility to use all information available. © 2013 The Wildlife Society.     

Winter warming as an important co‐driver for Betula nana growth in western Greenland during the past century

Growing season conditions are widely recognized as the main driver for tundra shrub radial growth, but the effects of winter warming and snow remain an open question. Here, we present a more than 100 years long Betula nana ring‐width chronology from Disko Island in western Greenland that demonstrates a highly significant and positive growth response to both summer and winter air temperatures during the past century. The importance of winter temperatures for Betula nana growth is especially pronounced during the periods from 1910–1930 to 1990–2011 that were dominated by significant winter warming. To explain the strong winter importance on growth, we assessed the importance of different environmental factors using site‐specific measurements from 1991 to 2011 of soil temperatures, sea ice coverage, precipitation and snow depths. The results show a strong positive growth response to the amount of thawing and growing degree‐days as well as to winter and spring soil temperatures. In addition to these direct effects, a strong negative growth response to sea ice extent was identified, indicating a possible link between local sea ice conditions, local climate variations and Betula nana growth rates. Data also reveal a clear shift within the last 20 years from a period with thick snow depths (1991–1996) and a positive effect on Betula nana radial growth, to a period (1997–2011) with generally very shallow snow depths and no significant growth response towards snow. During this period, winter and spring soil temperatures have increased significantly suggesting that the most recent increase in Betula nana radial growth is primarily triggered by warmer winter and spring air temperatures causing earlier snowmelt that allows the soils to drain and warm quicker. The presented results may help to explain the recently observed ‘greening of the Arctic’ which may further accelerate in future years due to both direct and indirect effects of winter warming.     

Demographic responses to a mild winter in enclosed vole populations

Mild winter weather causing snow to melt and ice to accumulate on the ground has been proposed to cause the decreased survival of individuals, and less pronounced cyclicity, of small rodent populations in Fennoscandia. However, detailed data linking ice accumulation to decreased winter survival is lacking. We live-trapped and monitored with passive integrated transponders enclosed populations of root voles (Microtus oeconomus) exposed to different amounts of ice accumulation through a mild winter. We studied how social behaviour and survival responded to snow melt and ice accumulation. Voles avoided ground ice by moving their home ranges, thus increasing home range overlap in enclosed populations experiencing more extensive ice cover. Winter survival was not affected by the amount of ice accumulation, and was only slightly reduced during ice formation in early winter. The lowest survival rates were found at the onset of snow melt in early spring. These results suggest that ice accumulation does not cause lower survival during mild winters, probably because plastic social behaviour enables root voles to reduce the negative effects of varying winter weather on survival. The mechanisms for lower survival during mild winters may operate during spring and be related to spring floods or increased susceptibility to predators. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Response of greater sage-grouse to sagebrush reduction treatments in Wyoming big sagebrush

Vegetation treatments have been widely implemented in efforts to enhance conditions for wildlife populations. Yet the effectiveness of such efforts often lack rigorous evaluations to determine whether these practices are effective for targeted species. This is particularly important when manipulating wildlife habitats in ecosystems that are faced with multiple stressors. The sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystem has been altered extensively over the last century leading to declines of many associated species. Wyoming big sagebrush (A. tridentata wyomingensis) is the most widely distributed subspecies, providing important habitats for sagebrush-obligate and associated wildlife. Sagebrush often has been treated with chemicals, mechanical treatments, and prescribed burning to increase herbaceous forage species released from competition with sagebrush overstory. Despite many studies documenting negative effects of sagebrush control on greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) habitat, treatments are still proposed as a means of improving habitat for sage-grouse and other sagebrush-dependent species. Furthermore, most studies have focused on vegetation response and none have rigorously evaluated the direct influence of these treatments on sage-grouse. We initiated a 9-year (2011–2019) experimental study in central Wyoming, USA, to better understand how greater sage-grouse respond to sagebrush reduction treatments in Wyoming big sagebrush communities. We evaluated the influence of 2 common sagebrush treatments on greater sage-grouse demography and resource selection. We implemented mowing and tebuthiuron application in winter and spring 2014 and evaluated the pre- (2011–2013) and post-treatment (2014–2019) responses of sage-grouse relative to these management actions. We evaluated responses to treatments using demographic and behavioral data collected from 620 radio-marked female greater sage-grouse. Our specific objectives were to evaluate how treatments influenced 1) sage-grouse reproductive success and female survival; 2) sage-grouse nesting, brood-rearing, and female resource selection; 3) vegetation responses; and 4) forbs and invertebrates. Our results generally suggested neutral demographic responses and slight avoidance by greater sage-grouse in response to Wyoming big sagebrush treated by mowing and tebuthiuron. Neither mowing nor tebuthiuron treatments influenced nest survival, brood survival, or female survival. Selection for nest and brood-rearing sites did not differ before and after treatments. Females selected habitats near treatments before and after they were implemented; however, the strength of selection was lower after treatments compared with pre-treatment periods, which may be explained by a lack of response in vegetation and invertebrates following treatments. Perennial grass cover and height varied temporally yet did not vary systematically between treatment and control plots. Forb cover and species richness varied annually but not in relation to either treatment type. Perennial grass cover and height, forb cover, and forb species richness did not increase within mowed or tebuthiuron-treated areas that received 2 or 6 years of grazing rest compared with areas that received no grazing rest. Finally, forb and invertebrate dry mass did not differ between treated plots and control plots at mowing or tebuthiuron sites in any years following treatments. Results from our study add to a large body of evidence that sage-grouse using Wyoming big sagebrush vegetation communities do not respond positively to sagebrush manipulation treatments. Management practices that focus on the maintenance of large, undisturbed tracts of sagebrush will best facilitate the persistence of sage-grouse populations and other species reliant on the sagebrush steppe.     

Factors influencing survival of native and translocated mountain quail in Idaho and Washington

Understanding survival and cause-specific mortality of native and translocated animals can help biologists design more effective recovery programs. We estimated survival rates for 181 native mountain quail (Oreortyx pictus) in west-central Idaho from 1992 to 1996 and for 199 translocated mountain quail in western Idaho and eastern Washington in 2005 and 2006. Spring–summer survival of native birds over 4 yr ranged from 0.210 (SE = 0.116) to 0.799 (SE = 0.103) and fall–winter survival in 2 yr was 0.523 (SE = 0.089) and 0.244 (SE = 0.084). Annual survival rates were 0.418 (SE = 0.088) and 0.174 (SE = 0.065). Spring–summer survival rate of translocated birds was 0.215 (SE = 0.044) in 2005 and 0.059 (SE = 0.021) in 2006. We modeled biweekly survival as a function of sex, age, movement rate, native versus translocated status, and linear time trend, and then we added year and 3 weather covariates (mean biweekly precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures). Year and climate variables improved the a priori top model which included movement rate and native versus translocated status. Higher mortality rates due to predation coincided with movements to breeding habitat in late winter, periods of higher temperatures in the spring and summer, and periods of higher precipitation and colder temperatures during the fall–winter seasons. High movement rates of native birds in winter to avoid snow and by translocated birds when dispersing may have led to greater exposure to predators and consequently lower survival rates. Mountain quail can experience low and variable survival, stressing the potential need for multiple years of releases in restoration efforts in the eastern portion of their range. More attention is needed to identify optimal habitat (including nest sites) for restoring mountain quail populations to reduce movements, lower mortality risks, and provide conditions for withstanding periods of unfavorable weather. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Exploring Migration Data Using Interval-Censored Time-to-Event Models

Abstract: Ecologists and wildlife biologists rely on periodic observation of radiocollared animals to study habitat use, survival, movement, and migration, resulting in response times (e.g., mortality and migration) known only to occur within an interval of time. We illustrate methods for analyzing interval-censored data using data on the timing of fall migration (from spring-summer-fall to winter ranges) for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in northern Minnesota, USA, during years 1991–1992 to 2005–2006. We compare both nonparametric and parametric methods for estimating the cumulative distribution function of migration times, and we suggest a parametric (cure rate) model that accounts for conditional (facultative) migrators as a potential alternative to traditional parametric models. Lastly, we illustrate methods for exploring the effect of environmental covariates on migration timing. Models with time-dependent covariates (snow depth, temp) were sensitive to the treatment of the data (as interval-censored or known event times), suggesting the need to account for interval-censoring when modeling the effect of these covariates.     

Influence of body mass and environmental conditions on winter mortality risk of a northern ungulate: Evidence for a late‐winter survival bottleneck

1. A relationship between winter weather and survival of northern ungulates has long been established, yet the possible roles of biological (e.g., nutritional status) and environmental (e.g., weather) conditions make it important to determine which potential limiting factors are most influential.
2. Our objective was to examine the potential effects of individual (body mass and age) and extrinsic (winter severity and snowmelt conditions) factors on the magnitude and timing of mortality for adult (>2.5 years old) female white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus [Zimmerman, 1780]) during February–May in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA.
3. One hundred and fifty deer were captured and monitored during 2009–2015 in two areas with varying snowfall. February–May survival ranged from 0.24 to 0.89 (mean = 0.69) across years. Mortality risk increased 1.9% with each unit increase in cumulative winter severity index, decreased 8.2% with each cumulative snow‐free day, and decreased 4.3% with each kg increase in body mass. Age and weekly snow depth did not influence weekly deer survival. Predation, primarily from coyote (Canis latrans [Say, 1823]) and wolves (Canis lupus [L., 1758]), accounted for 78% of known‐cause mortalities.
4. Our results suggest that cumulative winter severity, and possibly to a lesser degree deer condition entering winter, impacted deer winter survival. However, the timing of spring snowmelt appeared to be the most influential factor determining late‐winter mortality of deer in our study. This supports the hypothesis that nutrition and energetic demands from weather conditions are both important to northern ungulate winter ecology. Under this model, a delay of several weeks in the timing of spring snowmelt could exert a large influence on deer survival, resulting in a survival bottleneck.

     

Habitat selection and space use overlap between feral horses,pronghorn, and greater sage-grouse in cold arid steppe

Populations of feral horses (Equus ferus caballus) in the western United States have increased during the past decade, consequently affecting co-occurring wildlife habitat. Feral horses may influence 2 native wildlife species, greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage-grouse) and pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) through mechanisms of habitat alteration and competition. Wyoming, USA, contains the largest populations of pronghorn and sage-grouse of any state and also has the highest degree of range overlap between feral horses and these species. Consequently, the effects that horses may have on pronghorn and sage-grouse populations in Wyoming have implications at local, state, and population-wide levels. Managers need information concerning habitat selection and space use overlap among these species to develop appropriate management strategies; yet this information is absent for most feral horse management areas. To address this knowledge need, we attached global positioning system (GPS) transmitters to horses, pronghorn, and sage-grouse within the greater Bureau of Land Management–Adobe Town Herd Management Area in southern Wyoming and northern Colorado, USA, between 2017 and 2021 to evaluate habitat selection and space use of all species during 3 biologically relevant seasons: spring (Apr–Jun; sage-grouse breeding, nesting, and early-brood rearing; pronghorn late gestation and early parturition), summer (Jul–Oct; sage-grouse summer and late-brood rearing; pronghorn late parturition and breeding), and winter (Nov–Mar; non-breeding season). Feral horses selected flatter slopes and shorter mean shrub height across all seasons and were closer to water in spring and summer. Pronghorn habitat selection was similar to horses, but they also avoided oil and gas well pads year-round. During spring, sage-grouse selected greater herbaceous cover, flatter slopes, and areas farther from well pads. In summer, sage-grouse selected greater mean shrub height, flatter slopes, and were closer to water. In winter, sage-grouse selected flatter slopes and areas with greater vegetation production during the preceding summer. Our results indicate strong year-round overlap in space use between horses and pronghorn, whereas overlap between horses and sage-grouse is greatest during the summer in this region. Consequently, managers should recognize the potential for horses to influence habitat quality of pronghorn and sage-grouse in the region.     

Survival rates of Redshank Tringa totanus wintering on the Moray Firth

Long-term mark–recapture data were used to estimate the annual survival rates of Redshank wintering on the Moray Firth in Scotland. Survival modelling required the exclusion of all birds caught during the main passage months (August, March and April), and a highly variable annual catching effort limited the precision of annual survival estimates. Survival rates of juvenile Redshank (between the first and second winters of life) varied markedly from year to year and averaged 43% (se 3.6%). Adult survival rates were less variable between years and were age-dependent, with 67% (se 5.0%) surviving and returning between the second and third winters of life, compared to 74% (se 1.4%) for older birds. Year-to-year variation in adult survival was weakly (and negatively) related to the number of snow days in winter. Year-to-year variation in first-year survival was non-linearly related to winter rainfall, with low survival during dry (and cold) winters, higher survival during winters with average rainfall and lower survival during wet winters. Having accounted for these weather relationships there was no evidence that survival was related to the size of the local wintering Redshank population. Organized annual ringing programmes of wintering waders on British estuaries have the potential to monitor long-term changes in survival rates and productivity. Although constant effort sampling may be difficult to achieve for wintering waders, the utility of mark–recapture data collected on estuaries is likely to depend heavily on careful study design.     

Freezing in a warming climate: Marked declines of a subnivean hibernator after a snow drought

Recent snow droughts associated with unusually warm winters are predicted to increase in frequency and affect species dependent upon snowpack for winter survival. Changes in populations of some cold‐adapted species have been attributed to heat stress or indirect effects on habitat from unusually warm summers, but little is known about the importance of winter weather to population dynamics and how responses to snow drought vary among sympatric species. We evaluated changes in abundance of hoary marmots (Marmota caligata) over a period that included a year of record‐low snowpack to identify mechanisms associated with weather and snowpack. To consider interspecies comparisons, our analysis used the same a priori model set as a concurrent study that evaluated responses of American pikas (Ochotona princeps) to weather and snowpack in the same study area of North Cascades National Park, Washington, USA. We hypothesized that marmot abundance reflected mechanisms related to heat stress, cold stress, cold exposure without an insulating snowpack, snowpack duration, atmospheric moisture, growing‐season precipitation, or select combinations of these mechanisms. Changes in marmot abundances included a 74% decline from 2007 to 2016 and were best explained by an interaction of chronic dryness with exposure to acute cold without snowpack in winter. Physiological stress during hibernation from exposure to cold, dry air appeared to be the most likely mechanism of change in marmot abundance. Alternative mechanisms associated with changes to winter weather, including early emergence from hibernation or altered vegetation dynamics, had less support. A post hoc assessment of vegetative phenology and productivity did not support vegetation dynamics as a primary driver of marmot abundance across years. Although marmot and pika abundances were explained by strikingly similar models over periods of many years, details of the mechanisms involved likely differ between species because pika abundances increased in areas where marmots declined. Such differences may lead to diverging geographic distributions of these species as global change continues.     

Greater Sage-Grouse Response to the Physical Footprint of Energy Development

Energy infrastructure and associated habitat loss can lead to reduced reproductive rates for a variety of species including the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). Our goal was to refine our understanding of how the physical footprint of energy development relates to sage-grouse nest and brood survival. Our survival analyses were conditional upon the amount of surface disturbance female sage-grouse were exposed to during reproductive stages. We quantified levels of exposure and compared them to the surface disturbance levels of the surrounding area. From 2008–2014, we collected data in 6 study areas in Wyoming, USA, containing 4 primary types of renewable and nonrenewable energy development. Our research focused on press disturbance (i.e., disturbance sustained after initial disturbance and associated with existing energy infrastructure and human activity). Our results suggest exposure to press disturbance during nesting and brood-rearing was related to lower nest and brood survival, which manifested at different spatial scales. Our analysis of nest survival suggested that the likelihood of a successful nest was negatively associated with the amount of press disturbance within an 8-km² area. Broods exposed to any press disturbance within a 1-km² area were less likely to survive compared to broods not exposed to press disturbance. Female sage-grouse consistently used habitat with lower disturbance levels during reproductive periods. Greater than 90% of nest and brood-rearing locations were in habitat with <3% press disturbance within a 2.7-km² area. Our research links surface disturbance associated with press disturbance to reproductive costs incurred by sage-grouse exposed to diverse energy development. Our results demonstrate a pattern of female avoidance of areas where press disturbance was high during nesting and brood-rearing and survival of nests and broods were highest in areas that had the least amount of disturbance. Our findings underscore the importance of minimizing disturbance to maintain viable sage-grouse populations. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Comparative survival and recovery of Ross's and lesser snow geese from Canada's central arctic

Large increases in several populations of North American arctic geese have resulted in ecosystem-level effects from associated herbivory. Consequently, some breeding populations have shown density dependence in recruitment through declines in food availability. Differences in population trajectories of lesser snow geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens; hereafter snow geese) and Ross's geese (C. rossii) breeding in mixed-species colonies south of Queen Maud Gulf (QMG), in Canada's central arctic, suggest that density dependence may be limiting snow goose populations. Specifically, long-term declines in age ratios (immature:adult) of harvested snow geese may have resulted from declines in juvenile survival. Thus, we focused on juvenile (first-year) survival of snow and Ross's geese in relation to timing of reproduction (annual mean nest initiation date) and late summer weather. We banded Ross's and snow geese from 1991 to 2008 in the QMG Migratory Bird Sanctuary. We used age-structured mark-recapture models to estimate annual survival rates for adults and juveniles from recoveries of dead birds. Consistent with life history differences, juvenile snow geese survived at rates higher than juvenile Ross's geese. Juvenile survival of both species also was lower in late seasons, but was unrelated to arctic weather measured during a 17-day period after banding. We found no evidence of density dependence (i.e., a decline in juvenile survival over time) in either species. We also found no interspecific differences in age-specific hunting vulnerability, though juveniles were more vulnerable than adults in both species, as expected. Thus, interspecific differences in survival were unrelated to harvest. Lower survival of juvenile Ross's geese may result from natural migration mortality related to smaller body size (e.g., greater susceptibility to inclement weather or predation) compared to juvenile snow geese. Despite lower first-year survival, recruitment by Ross's geese may still be greater than that by snow geese because of earlier sexual maturity, greater breeding propensity, and higher nest success by Ross's geese. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Lower body mass and higher metabolic rate enhance winter survival in root voles,Microtus oeconomus

Although the biological significance of individual variation in physiological traits is widely recognized, studies of their association with fitness in wild populations are surprisingly scarce. We investigated the effect of individual phenotypic variation in body mass, resting (RMR) and peak metabolic rates (PMR) on mortality of the root vole Microtus oeconomus. Body mass and metabolic rates varied significantly among consecutive years and were also age dependent, as individuals born in late summer and autumn were characterized by significantly lower body mass and metabolic rates than animals born earlier. At the beginning of winter voles born in spring and early summer exhibited reduced body mass and metabolic rates, whereas animals born later maintained lower body mass and RMR, which may be interpreted as phenotypic plasticity enhancing the probability of survival. Body mass had no significant effect on vole survival during summer. In contrast, smaller individuals were characterized by lower mortality during early winter, whereas higher body mass was positively associated with survival later in the season. High body‐mass‐corrected RMR positively affected survival in both summer and winter. The effect of PMR was apparent only during winter, though its direction (and correlation with RMR) varied among years. Deep snow cover negatively affected the survival of voles in both early and late winter. Ambient temperature was positively associated with winter survival, except for late winter, when rising temperature caused flooding of vole habitat. We conclude that the lack of consistency in the directionality and strength of the effects of body mass and metabolic rates on winter survival does not undermine their importance, but rather demonstrates the ability of individuals to adjust metabolic rate to changing environmental conditions. © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 113 , 297–309.     

Estimates of annual survival,growth, and recruitment of a white-tailed ptarmigan population in Colorado over 43 years

Long-term datasets for high-elevation species are rare, and considerable uncertainty exists in understanding how high-elevation populations have responded to recent climate warming. We present estimates of demographic vital rates from a 43-year population study of white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), a species endemic to alpine habitats in western North America. We used capture-recapture models to estimate annual rates of apparent survival, population growth, and recruitment for breeding-age ptarmigan, and we fit winter weather covariates to models in an attempt to explain annual variation. There were no trends in survival over the study period but there was strong support for age and sex effects. The average rate of annual growth suggests a relatively stable breeding-age population ( \( \bar{\lambda } \)  = 1.036), but there was considerable variation between years for both population growth and recruitment rates. Winter weather covariates only explained a small amount of variation in female survival and were not an important predictor of male survival. Cumulative winter precipitation was found to have a quadratic effect on female survival, with survival being highest during years of average precipitation. Cumulative winter precipitation was positively correlated with population growth and recruitment rates, although this covariate only explained a small amount of annual variation in these rates and there was considerable uncertainty among the models tested. Our results provide evidence for an alpine-endemic population that has not experienced extirpation or drastic declines. However, more information is needed to understand risks and vulnerabilities of warming effects on juveniles as our analysis was confined to determination of vital rates for breeding-age birds.     

Winter Fidelity and Apparent Survival of Lesser Snow Goose Populations in the Pacific Flyway

Abstract The Beringia region of the Arctic contains 2 colonies of lesser snow geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) breeding on Wrangel Island, Russia, and Banks Island, Canada, and wintering in North America. The Wrangel Island population is composed of 2 subpopulations from a sympatric breeding colony but separate wintering areas, whereas the Banks Island population shares a sympatric wintering area in California, USA, with one of the Wrangel Island subpopulations. The Wrangel Island colony represents the last major snow goose population in Russia and has fluctuated considerably since 1970, whereas the Banks Island population has more than doubled. The reasons for these changes are unclear, but hypotheses include independent population demographics (survival and recruitment) and immigration and emigration among breeding or wintering populations. These demographic and movement patterns have important ecological and management implications for understanding goose population structure, harvest of admixed populations, and gene flow among populations with separate breeding or wintering areas. From 1993 to 1996, we neckbanded molting birds at their breeding colonies and resighted birds on the wintering grounds. We used multistate mark-recapture models to evaluate apparent survival rates, resighting rates, winter fidelity, and potential exchange among these populations. We also compared the utility of face stain in Wrangel Island breeding geese as a predictor of their wintering area. Our results showed similar apparent survival rates between subpopulations of Wrangel Island snow geese and lower apparent survival, but higher emigration, for the Banks Island birds. Males had lower apparent survival than females, most likely due to differences in neckband loss. Transition between wintering areas was low (<3%), with equal movement between northern and southern wintering areas for Wrangel Island birds and little evidence of exchange between the Banks and northern Wrangel Island populations. Face staining was an unreliable indicator of wintering area. Our findings suggest that northern and southern Wrangel Island subpopulations should be considered a metapopulation in better understanding and managing Pacific Flyway lesser snow geese. Yet the absence of a strong population connection between Banks Island and Wrangel Island geese suggests that these breeding colonies can be managed as separate but overlapping populations. Additionally, winter population fidelity may be more important in lesser snow geese than in other species, and both breeding and wintering areas are important components of population management for sympatric wintering populations.     

Sex-Age Selectivity and Correlates of Capture for Winter-Trapped White-Tailed Deer

ANDREW J. TYRE⁷ ABSTRACT Despite the common use of Clover traps to capture white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), little published information exists quantifying trap success, trap selectivity (sex-age selection), or weather correlates of trap success. We quantified these relationships using white-tailed deer data from 3 study sites in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, USA, during winters 2001–2007. We captured 610 deer in 8,569 trap-nights; pooled capture success was 0.07 deer/trap-night, although site-year success varied from 0.021 to 0.086. We compared sex-age classes (fawn [pooled by sex], ad M, ad F) captured with sex-age classes estimated to be available on each study site during each capture season. We used generalized linear mixed modeling to construct 19 a priori models to describe probability of capture success as a function of weather covariates (daily min. temp [° C], daily snowfall [cm], daily snow depth [cm]), Julian day, site, and year. General selection patterns included fawns captured more than expected and adult males captured less than expected; adult females were generally neutrally selected. The quasi-Akaike's Information Criterion best model within our set was described by the global model without Julian day and contained all 3 weather covariates and site-year effects. Our model provided some evidence that as daily snow depth increased, probability of capture increased; the positive effect of daily snowfall on capture probability was dependent on decreasing daily minimum temperature. Our results may be used to increase efficacy of deer capture programs by researchers and managers through informed decision-making about when to allocate effort (e.g., if extreme winter weather conditions are predicted) and when to consider alternative methods (e.g., if capture of ad M is an objective).