Estimation of a Nonlinear Density-Dependence Parameter for Wild Turkey

Abstract: Although previous research and theory has suggested that wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) populations may be subject to some form of density dependence, there has been no effort to estimate and incorporate a density-dependence parameter into wild turkey population models. To estimate a functional relationship for density dependence in wild turkey, we analyzed a set of harvest-index time series from 11 state wildlife agencies. We tested for lagged correlations between annual harvest indices using partial autocorrelation analysis. We assessed the ability of the density-dependent theta-Ricker model to explain harvest indices over time relative to exponential or random walk growth models. We tested the homogeneity of the density-dependence parameter estimates (θ) from 3 different harvest indices (spring harvest no. reported harvest/effort, survey harvest/effort) and calculated a weighted average based on each estimate's variance and its estimated covariance with the other indices. To estimate the potential bias in parameter estimates from measurement error, we conducted a simulation study using the theta-Ricker with known values and lognormally distributed measurement error. Partial autocorrelation function analysis indicated that harvest indices were significantly correlated only with their value at the previous time step. The theta-Ricker model performed better than the exponential growth or random walk models for all 3 indices. Simulation of known parameters and measurement error indicated a strong positive upward bias in the density-dependent parameter estimate, with increasing measurement error. The average density-dependence estimate, corrected for measurement error ranged 0.25 ≤ θC ≤ 0.49, depending on the amount of measurement error and assumed spring harvest rate. We infer that density dependence is nonlinear in wild turkey, where growth rates are maximized at 39-42% of carrying capacity. The annual yield produced by density-dependent population growth will tend to be less than that caused by extrinsic environmental factors. This study indicates that both density-dependent and density-independent processes are important to wild turkey population growth, and we make initial suggestions on incorporating both into harvest management strategies.     

Simulated performance of multi-year harvest regulation cycles for wild turkeys

Wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo) are a prolific species and valuable game animal throughout the United States. Stochastic simulations are commonly used to inform harvest management, and we used simulation to test performance of fall harvest management that included 1-, 3-, and 5-year cycles of population assessment and updating of harvest targets, respectively. To assess robustness of our conclusions, we replicated analyses across 18 combinations of model parameters that included population productivity (3 levels), sex-specific vulnerability to fall harvest (3 levels), and magnitude of spring harvest (2 levels). Performance of multi-year cycles, measured using abundance of males and annual harvest, depended on the context of model parameters that interacted to determine responses of populations to harvest. One- and 3-year cycles had similar performance so long as female harvests were less than or equal to male harvests. However, when harvest of females was greater than males, or when 5-year regulation cycles were implemented, there was greater risk due to nonlinear population responses to increased harvest. For example, nonlinearity resulted in thresholds where declines to abundance and harvest could occur with small increases to harvest rates, and thus the sustainability of fall harvests was less robust for multi-year cycles with time-lagged assessment and decision making. Moreover, the harvest rate resulting in threshold responses depended on model parameters and often occurred within the range of harvest rates recommended by earlier modeling studies (7–15%). Our results imply that multi-year cycles can be a viable approach to harvest management. Monitoring that provides information on sex-specific harvest is recommended, however, to determine if nonlinear population responses should be anticipated. Ideally, information on population-specific vital rates would also be available to allow managers to avoid harvest rates near thresholds that are expected to result in population declines. © The Wildlife Society, 2019     

Synchrony in a Wild Turkey Population and its Relationship to Spring Weather

Abstract: Synchrony is an important component of wildlife population dynamics because it describes spatial pattern in temporal population fluctuations. The strength and spatial extent of synchrony can provide information about the extrinsic and intrinsic forces that shape population structure. Wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) populations undergo annual fluctuations, possibly due to variation in weather during the reproductive season. To determine if spring weather plays a role in synchronizing wild turkey populations, we used a modified Mantel-type spatial autocorrelation procedure to measure the synchrony in fall wild turkey harvest data collected in 443 townships from 1990 to 1995 and compared this to the pattern of synchrony in spring weather variables (May rainfall and temp) over the same period. We measured correlation using Spearman correlation coefficients between the total fall harvests from 1990 to 1995 for each pair of townships, and sorted pairs into 6 50-km distance intervals. We calculated a mean correlation coefficient for each interval and estimated its P-value using resampling. We found moderately significant synchrony in the fall harvest (r_s = 0.12-0.34, P < 0.008) among township pairs <150 km apart, but no significant synchrony beyond this distance. In contrast, both May temperature (r = 0.82-0.90, P < 0.001) and rainfall (r = 0.49-0.76, P < 0.001) were strongly synchronized across all 6 distance intervals. Visual inspection of time series in the wild turkey fall harvest suggests that populations may be synchronized in some years when weather promotes high reproductive success (i.e., a synchronized growth peak) and asynchronous in other years. Knowledge of the spatial dynamics of wild turkey populations will aid wildlife managers in estimating population change, setting harvest quotas, and managing habitat.     

Population Dynamics of the Dioecious Amazonian Palm Mauritia flexuosa: Simulation Analysis of Sustainable Harvesting

The dioecious, tropical palm Mauritia flexuosa has high ecological and economic value, but currently some wild populations are harvested excessively, which is likely to increase. In this study, we investigated the population dynamics of this important palm, the effects of harvesting, and suggested sustainable harvesting regimes. Data were collected from populations in the Ecuadorian Amazon that were assumed to be stable. We used a matrix population model to calculate the density-independent asymptotic population growth rate (λ= 1.046) and to evaluate harvesting scenarios. Elasticity analysis showed that survival (particularly in the second and fifth size class) contributes more to the population growth rate, than growth and fecundity. To simulate a stable population at carrying capacity, density dependence was incorporated and applied to the seedling survival and growth parameters in the transition matrix. Harvesting scenarios were simulated with the density-dependent population models to predict sustainable harvesting regimes for the dioecious palm. We simulated the removal of only female palms and showed how both sexes are affected with harvest intensities between 15 and 75 percent and harvest intervals of 1–15 yr. By assuming a minimum female threshold, we demonstrated a continuum of sustainable harvesting schedules for various intensities and frequencies for 100 yr of harvest. Furthermore, by setting the population model's λ= 1.00, we found that a harvest of 22.5 percent on a 20 yr frequency for the M. flexuosa population in Ecuador is consistent with a sustainable, viable population over time.     

Ranking Alaska Moose Nutrition: Signals to Begin Liberal Antlerless Harvests

Abstract: We focused on describing low nutritional status in an increasing moose (Alces alces gigas) population with reduced predation in Game Management Unit (GMU) 20A near Fairbanks, Alaska, USA. A skeptical public disallowed liberal antlerless harvests of this moose population until we provided convincing data on low nutritional status. We ranked nutritional status in 15 Alaska moose populations (in boreal forests and coastal tundra) based on multiyear twinning rates. Data on age-of-first-reproduction and parturition rates provided a ranking consistent with twinning rates in the 6 areas where comparative data were available. Also, short-yearling mass provided a ranking consistent with twinning rates in 5 of the 6 areas where data were available. Data from 5 areas implied an inverse relationship between twinning rate and browse removal rate. Only in GMU 20A did nutritional indices reach low levels where justification for halting population growth was apparent, which supports prior findings that nutrition is a minor factor limiting most Alaska moose populations compared to predation. With predator reductions, the GMU 20A moose population increased from 1976 until liberal antlerless harvests in 2004. During 1997-2005, GMU 20A moose exhibited the lowest nutritional status reported to date for wild, noninsular, North American populations, including 1) delayed reproduction until moose reached 36 months of age and the lowest parturition rate among 36-month-old moose (29%, n = 147); 2) the lowest average multiyear twinning rates from late-May aerial surveys (x = 7%, SE = 0.9%, n = 9 yr, range = 3-10%) and delayed twinning until moose reached 60 months of age; 3) the lowest average mass of female short-yearlings in Alaska (x̄ = 155 ± 1.6 [SE] kg in the Tanana Flats subpopulation, up to 58 kg below average masses found elsewhere); and 4) high removal (42%) of current annual browse biomass compared to 9-26% elsewhere in boreal forests. When average multiyear twinning rates in GMU 20A (sampled during 1960-2005) declined to <10% in the mid- to late 1990s, we began encouraging liberal antlerless harvests, but only conservative annual harvests of 61-76 antlerless moose were achieved during 1996-2001. Using data in the context of our broader ranking system, we convinced skeptical citizen advisory committees to allow liberal antlerless harvests of 600-690 moose in 2004 and 2005, with the objective of halting population growth of the 16,000-17,000 moose; total harvests were 7-8% of total prehunt numbers. The resulting liberal antlerless harvests served to protect the moose population's health and habitat and to fulfill a mandate for elevated yield. Liberal antlerless harvests appear justified to halt population growth when multiyear twinning rates average ≤10% and ≥1 of the following signals substantiate low nutritional status: <50% of 36-month-old moose are parturient, average multiyear short-yearling mass is <175 kg, or >35% of annual browse biomass is removed by moose.     

Lifetime Sex-Specific Moose Mortality During an Intentional Population Reduction

Where elevated harvest of ungulates is a priority, managers benefit by understanding how various sources of mortality affect the age and sex structure and trend of ungulate populations. Prior studies reported a long period (1997–2014) of moose (Alces alces gigas) nutritional stress from overabundance in our study area, an intentional 31% reduction in moose numbers using liberal harvests of females (2004–2012), and low bear (Ursus spp.) predation and high moose harvest densities relative to other largely roadless systems with moose, bears, and wolves (Canis lupus). In this paper, we detailed management findings after describing causes and rates of mortality from 226 female and 164 male moose radio-collared at 9 months of age (1997–2008) and followed through life (1997–2019) and throughout the population reduction. We listened for mortality signals on radio-collars 1–2 times/month when snow cover was complete and 2–4 times/month when snow cover was incomplete. Upon hearing a mortality signal, we investigated mortality sites usually within 24 hours via helicopter. Excluding hunter-caused mortality, we estimated 28% annual mortality for male yearlings versus 17% for female yearlings, then low annual mortality rates (0–4%) to 84 months of age for males and 96 months of age for females, and gradually increasing annual mortality rates thereafter. Most (83%) male moose ≥24 months of age died from hunters; minor causes included wolves (8%), malnutrition or disease (5%), grizzly bears (U. arctos; 2%), and accidents (2%). Most female moose ≥24 months of age died from wolves (37%) or hunters (33%); minor causes included malnutrition or disease (15%), grizzly bears (10%), and accidents (5%). The proportion of radio-collared females killed by hunters varied depending on numbers of permits issued to hunters; the kill rate of females ≥24 months of age was 58% during the initial 4 years of the 9-year reduction, moderated at 29% during the final 5 years of the reduction, and was only 7% for all other study years. We attributed 32% of hunter kills to illegal harvest and unrecovered hunter kills. Hunters played a key role in the intentional population reduction by harvesting prime-age and near prime-age male and female moose that rarely died from other sources of mortality compared with calf, yearling, and older moose. Restricting general season hunters to primarily harvesting prime-age and older male moose with antler spreads ≥127 cm did not appreciably reduce harvest of adult males. Male moose 2.0–5.3 years of age rarely died from non-hunter causes and were largely harvested at older, prime ages (5.3–8.3 yr of age). Yearling moose of both sexes died primarily from wolves, with wolves selecting more for males. By using liberal harvests of female moose to reduce the population, managers improved moose nutrition and reproduction, met mandates for elevated harvests, and may have avoided a reoccurrence of a previous precipitous decline in moose numbers that was initiated by overabundance and extreme snow depths. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.     

Factors influencing rate of decline in a Merriam's wild turkey population

We investigated population growth rate (λ) for a Merriam's wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo merriami) population in the northern Black Hills, South Dakota, USA. We constructed and evaluated a females-only matrix population model. Our estimate of asymptotic λ, derived from estimates of vital rates obtained from 2016–2018 was 0.74 (95% CI = 0.60, 0.88), which indicates that the vital rates were inadequate to sustain the population. Elasticity values were highest for changes in adult survival probability followed by, in order, changes in juvenile survival, yearling survival, and adult reproduction. We could only achieve stable or growing populations (i.e., λ ≥ 1) by increasing the probability of adult and yearling survival (holding all other vital rates constant). Estimated adult survival rate in the work reported here was lower than values reported for other populations in the Black Hills; therefore, managing for increased female survival (≥0.68) may be the most practical strategy for promoting wild turkey population growth in this system. We recommend no female harvest during any open turkey season.     

Commercial harvest and export of snapping turtles (Chelydra serpentina) in the United States: trends and the efficacy of size limits at reducing harvest

As Asian turtle populations have crashed, China has increasingly turned to international import to meet domestic demand, which has increased pressure on global turtle populations. Snapping turtles (Chelydra serpentina) are being harvested in unprecedented numbers in the United States (US) to meet the needs of this international market. Here we report US snapping turtle live export from 1999 to 2013, and for the first time test the effectiveness of size limits in reducing commercial harvest numbers. Over three million live snapping turtles from farm and wild caught stock were exported from the US to Asia in 2012–14 alone. Increases in the export of wild caught snapping turtles to over 200,000 individuals in 2012 and 2014, compared to under 50,000 in other years, may indicate that farms are becoming unable to keep up with increasing demand. Annual harvest pressure at the state level increased linearly from 1998 to 2013, mirroring trends in federal export over the same time period. Our model estimates that size-limits were effective at reducing harvest by 30–87% in years with high harvest pressure. However, the majority of size limit regulations result in the removal of larger breeding adults, which has been shown to be detrimental to long term population viability. Regulatory approaches dedicated to the long term management of this iconic species will need to balance the short term gains, in the form of reduced harvest rates, with long term population viability.     

How Size and Condition Influence Survival and Cause-Specific Mortality of Female Elk

The size of animal populations fluctuates with number of births, rate of immigration, rate of emigration, and number of deaths. For many ungulate populations, adult female survival is the most important factor influencing population growth. Therefore, increased understanding of survival and causes of mortality for adult females is fundamental for conservation and management. The objectives of our study were to quantify survival rates of female elk (Cervus canadensis) and determine cause-specific mortality. We predicted that hunter harvest would be the leading cause of mortality. Further, we predicted that hunters would harvest animals that were in prime age (2–9 yr) and in better condition than elk predated by mountain lions (Puma concolor). From 2015 to 2017, we captured 376 female elk in central Utah, USA. We assessed body size and condition of captured elk, fitted each animal with a global positioning system-collar, and determined cause of death when we received mortality signals. We estimated survival using Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox proportional hazard models within an Akaike's Information Criterion model selection framework to identify covariates that influenced survival. We analyzed differences in size and condition measurements between harvested elk and predated elk using analysis of variance tests. Our best model indicated consistent survival across years; mean survival was 78.3 ± 3.5% (SE) including hunter harvest and 95.5 ± 1.7% without hunter harvest. In decreasing order of importance, elk mortality occurred from hunter harvest (21.2%), mountain lion predation (3.7%), depredation removal (0.5%), automobile collision (0.3%), disease (0.3%), complications during calving (0.3%), and those characterized as undetermined (1.3%). Neck circumference and body length were negatively associated with survival, suggesting that larger animals in good condition had lower survival as a result of hunter harvest. Individuals that died because of cougar predation were smaller and had less loin muscle than the average animal. Hunters removed large, healthy, prime-aged females, individuals that likely have a greater effect on population growth than elk lost to other predators. If the proportion of larger, healthy females in the population begins to decline, hunting practices may require adjustment because hunters may be removing individuals with the greatest reproductive value. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Variation in spring harvest rates of male wild turkeys in New York,Ohio, and Pennsylvania

Spring harvest rates of male wild turkeys (Meleagris gallapavo) influence the number and proportion of adult males in the population and turkey population models have treated harvest as additive to other sources of mortality. Therefore, hunting regulations and their effect on spring harvest rates have direct implications for hunter satisfaction. We used tag recovery models to estimate survival rates, investigate spatial, temporal, and demographic variability in harvest rates, and assess how harvest rates may be related to management strategies and landscape characteristics. We banded 3,266 male wild turkeys throughout New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania during 2006–2009. We found little evidence that harvest rates varied by year or management zone. The proportion of the landscape that was forested within 6.5 km of the capture location was negatively related to harvest rates; however, even though the proportion forested ranged from 0.008 to 0.96 across our study area, this corresponded to differences in harvest rates of only 2–5%. Annual survival was approximately twice as high for juveniles as adults . In turn, spring harvest rates for adult turkeys were greater for adults than juveniles . We estimated the population of male turkeys in New York and Pennsylvania ranged from 104,000 to 132,000 in all years and ranged from 63,000 to 75,000 in Ohio. Because of greater harvest rates for adult males, the proportion of adult males in the population was less than in the harvest and ranged from 0.40 to 0.81 among all states and years. The high harvest rates observed for adults may be offset by greater recruitment of juveniles into the adult age class the following year such that these states can sustain high harvest rates yet still maintain a relative high proportion of adult males in the harvest and population. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Individual heterogeneity in black brant survival and recruitment with implications for harvest dynamics

We examined individual heterogeneity in survival and recruitment of female Pacific black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) using frailty models adapted to a capture–mark–recapture context. Our main objectives were (1) to quantify levels of heterogeneity and examine factors affecting heterogeneity, and (2) model the effects of individual heterogeneity on harvest dynamics through matrix models. We used 24 years of data on brant marked and recaptured at the Tutakoke River colony, AK. Multievent models were fit as hidden Markov chain using program E‐SURGE with an adequate overdispersion coefficient. Annual survival of individuals marked as goslings was heterogeneous among individuals and year specific with about 0.23 difference in survival between “high” (0.73)‐ and “low” (0.50)‐quality individuals at average survival probability. Adult survival (0.85 ± 0.004) was homogeneous and higher than survival of both groups of juveniles. The annual recruitment probability was heterogeneous for brant >1‐year‐old; 0.56 (±0.21) and 0.31 (±0.03) for high‐ and low‐quality individuals, respectively. Assuming equal clutch sizes for high‐ and low‐quality individuals and that 80% of offspring were in the same quality class as the breeding female resulted in reproductive values about twice as high for high‐quality individuals than low‐quality individual for a given class of individuals producing differential contributions to population growth among groups. Differences in reproductive values greatly increased when we assumed high‐quality individuals had larger clutch sizes. When we assumed that 50% of offspring were in the same quality class as their mothers and clutches were equal, differences in reproductive values between quality classes were greatly reduced or eliminated (breeders [BRs]). We considered several harvest scenarios using the assumption that 80% of offspring were in the same quality class as their mothers. The amount of compensation for harvest mortality declined as the proportion of high‐quality individuals in the harvest increased, as differences in clutch sizes between groups decreased and as the proportion of BRs in the harvest increased. Synthesis and applications. Harvest at the same proportional level of the overall population can result in variable responses in population growth rate when heterogeneity is present in a population. λ was <1.0 under every scenario when harvest rates were >10%, and heterogeneity caused as much as +2% difference in growth rates at the highest levels of proportional harvest for low‐quality individuals and the greatest differences in qualities between classes of individuals, a critical difference for a population with λ near 1.0 such as the brant. We observed less response in overall survival in the presence of heterogeneity because we did not observe heterogeneity in the annual survival of BRs. This analysis provides a comprehensive view of overall compensation at the population level and also constitutes the first example of a survival‐recruitment model with heterogeneity. Individual heterogeneity should be more explicitly considered in harvest management of vertebrates.     

Experimental harvest regulations reveal that water availability during spring,not harvest,affects change in a waterfowl population

Population change is regulated by vital rates that are influenced by environmental conditions, demographic stochasticity, and, increasingly, anthropogenic effects. Habitat destruction and climate change threaten the future of many wildlife populations, and there are additional concerns regarding the effects of harvest rates on demographic components of harvested organisms. Further, many population managers strictly manage harvest of wild organisms to mediate population trends of these populations. The goal of our study was to decouple harvest and environmental variability in a closely monitored population of wild ducks in North America, where we experimentally regulated harvest independently of environmental variation over a period of 4 years. We used 9 years of capture–mark–recapture data to estimate breeding population size during the spring for a population of wood ducks in Nevada. We then assessed the effect of one environmental variable and harvest pressure on annual changes in the breeding population size. Climatic conditions influencing water availability were strongly positively related to population growth rates of wood ducks in our study system. In contrast, harvest regulations and harvest rates did not affect population growth rates. We suggest efforts to conserve waterfowl should focus on the effects of habitat loss in breeding areas and climate change, which will likely affect precipitation regimes in the future. We demonstrate the utility of capture–mark–recapture methods to estimate abundance of species which are difficult to survey and test the impacts of anthropogenic harvest and climate on populations. Finally, our results continue to add to the importance of experimentation in applied conservation biology, where we believe that continued experiments on nonthreatened species will be critically important as researchers attempt to understand how to quantify and mitigate direct anthropogenic impacts in a changing world.     

Managing for Elevated Yield of Moose in Interior Alaska

ABSTRACT Given recent actions to increase sustained yield of moose (Alces alces) in Alaska, USA, we examined factors affecting yield and moose demographics and discussed related management. Prior studies concluded that yield and density of moose remain low in much of Interior Alaska and Yukon, Canada, despite high moose reproductive rates, because of predation from lightly harvested grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) and wolf (Canis lupus) populations. Our study area, Game Management Unit (GMU) 20A, was also in Interior Alaska, but we describe elevated yield and density of moose. Prior to our study, a wolf control program (1976–1982) helped reverse a decline in the moose population. Subsequent to 1975, moose numbers continued a 28-year, 7-fold increase through the initial 8 years of our study (λ_B1 = 1.05 during 1996–2004, peak density = 1,299 moose/1,000 km²). During these initial 8 hunting seasons, reported harvest was composed primarily of males ( = 88%). Total harvest averaged 5% of the prehunt population and 57 moose/1,000 km², the highest sustained harvest-density recorded in Interior Alaska for similar-sized areas. In contrast, sustained total harvests of <10 moose/1,000 km² existed among low-density, predator-limited moose populations in Interior Alaska (≤417 moose/1,000 km²). During the final 3 years of our study (2004–2006), moose numbers declined (λ_B2 = 0.96) as intended using liberal harvests of female and male moose ( = 47%) that averaged 7% of the prehunt population and 97 moose/1,000 km². We intentionally reduced high densities in the central half of GMU 20A (up to 1,741 moose/1,000 km² in Nov) because moose were reproducing at the lowest rate measured among wild, noninsular North American populations. Calf survival was uniquely high in GMU 20A compared with 7 similar radiocollaring studies in Alaska and Yukon. Low predation was the proximate factor that allowed moose in GMU 20A to increase in density and sustain elevated yields. Bears killed only 9% of the modeled postcalving moose population annually in GMU 20A during 1996–2004, in contrast to 18–27% in 3 studies of low-density moose populations. Thus, outside GMU 20A, higher bear predation rates can create challenges for those desiring rapid increases in sustained yield of moose. Wolves killed 8–15% of the 4 postcalving moose populations annually (10% in GMU 20A), hunters killed 2–6%, and other factors killed 1–6%. Annually during the increase phase in GMU 20A, calf moose constituted 75% of the predator-killed moose and predators killed 4 times more moose than hunters killed. Wolf predation on calves remained largely additive at the high moose densities studied in GMU 20A. Sustainable harvest-densities of moose can be increased several-fold in most areas of Interior Alaska where moose density and moose: predator ratios are lower than in GMU 20A and nutritional status is higher. Steps include 1) reducing predation sufficient to allow the moose population to grow, and 2) initiating harvest of female moose to halt population growth and maximize harvest after density-dependent moose nutritional indices reach or approach the thresholds we previously published.     

Population and Harvest Dynamics of Midcontinent Sandhill Cranes

Sandhill cranes (Antigone canadensis) inhabiting the midcontinent of North America have been hunted since the 1960s under management goals of maintaining abundance, retaining geographic distribution, and maximizing sustainable harvest. Some biologists have raised concerns regarding harvest sustainability because sandhill cranes have lower reproductive rates than other game birds. We summarized demographic information in an age-structured matrix model to better understand population dynamics and harvest. Population indices and recovered harvest since the early 1980s suggest midcontinent sandhill cranes have experienced an average long-term annual growth of 0.9%; meanwhile, harvest has increased 1.8% annually. Adult survival and recruitment rates estimated from field data required modest adjustments (1–3%) so that model-derived growth rates matched growth estimated from a long-term survey (0.887 adult survival and 0.199 females/breeding female). Considering 0.9% long-term annual growth, sandhill cranes could be harvested at a rate of 6.6% if harvest was additive to natural mortality (assumed to be 0.05) or 11.3% if harvest mortality compensated for natural mortality. Life-history characteristics for long-lived organisms and demographic evidence suggested that hunter harvest was primarily additive. Differential harvest rates of segments of sandhill cranes in the midcontinent population derived from differential exposure to hunting suggested potentially unsustainable harvest for greater sandhill cranes (A. c. tabida) from 2 breeding segments. Overall, demographic evidence suggests that the harvest of sandhill cranes in the midcontinent population has been managed sustainably. Monitoring activities that reduce nuisance variation and estimate vital and harvest rates by subspecies would support continued management of sandhill cranes that are of interest to hunters and bird watchers. Published 2020. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Matrix population models indicate that bark harvest of two medicinal plants in Uganda's Bwindi Impenetrable National Park is sustainable

Balancing forest conservation with resource extraction by local people is challenging. In the mountain forests of Bwindi Impenetrable National Park in Uganda, this was addressed by permitting regulated access to certain forest products in specific areas by authorized local people. However, it remained unclear whether harvest levels were biologically sustainable. Here, we used matrix population models and long‐term data to examine the impacts of bark harvesting on population dynamics of two important medicinal plants, Rytigynia kigeziensis and Ocotea usambarensis, in Bwindi. Only 4% of R. kigeziensis and 3% of O. usambarensis stems (>1.3 m height) showed signs of bark harvest, mostly mild harvesting. We found that the harvested populations of both species appeared stable or will moderately grow in the long run. Modelled population growth rates were mostly determined by survival probabilities. Similarity between the stable stage distributions predicted by the model and observed population structures suggests that our estimated vital rates (growth, recruitment and survival rates) are a reasonable representation of actual values in these populations. Thus, recent harvest levels of R. kigeziensis and O. usambarensis appear sustainable. Nonetheless, monitoring of harvested and unharvested populations by tagging, marking and remeasuring individuals should continue for both species.     

Effects of variable spring harvest regimes on annual survival and recovery rates of male wild turkeys in Southeast Louisiana

Spring harvest is a primary mortality factor for male eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris), but the relationship between spring harvest regimes and annual survival is not well understood. We banded 462 male wild turkeys from 1989 to 2007 in southeastern Louisiana to estimate annual survival and band recovery rates relative to spring harvest. We evaluated these parameters under a liberal harvest season (3-bird limit; 1989–1997) and a reduced conservative harvest season (2-bird limit; 2000–2007). Estimated recovery rates during the liberal season were 0.75 (SE = 0.05) for adults and 0.63 (SE = 0.04) for juveniles, and recovery rates during the conservative season were 0.61 (SE = 0.04) and 0.48 (SE = 0.05) for adults and juveniles, respectively. Annual survival averaged 0.16 (SE = 0.05) and 0.43 (SE = 0.05) for adults and juveniles, respectively, during the liberal season. Conversely, during the conservative season, annual survival averaged 0.31 (SE = 0.05) and 0.56 (SE = 0.05) for adults and juveniles, respectively. Our findings suggest that bag limit reductions combined with a reduction in season length contributed to a 2-fold increase in annual survival for male wild turkeys. We contend that male wild turkeys were likely over harvested on our study area during the liberal harvest season, which contributed to exceptionally low annual survival rates. Managers should attempt to assess survival rates of male wild turkeys in harvested populations to properly manage spring harvest and develop appropriate harvest limits. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

A population model to simulate northern bobwhite population dynamics in southern Texas

Models are important tools that can help managers and researchers understand the population dynamics of a species and how different habitat or population management scenarios impact that species. We used radio-telemetry data from northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus) in southern Texas from 2000 to 2005 to develop a stochastic simulation model for bobwhite populations. Our model is based on difference equations, with stochastic variables drawn from normal and Weibull distributions. We simulated bobwhite populations to 100 yr and evaluated our model by comparing results with independent estimates of 4 population parameters (spring and fall density, finite rate of increase in the fall population [λ], and winter juv:ad age ratios). Using a quasi-extinction criterion of ≤40 birds (density = ≤0.05 birds/ha), probability of persistence to 100 yr was 88.3% (106 of 120 simulations) for the spring population and 96.7% (116 of 120 simulations) for the fall population. Using a less restrictive quasi-extinction criteria (≤14 birds), probability of persistence was 93.3% (112 of 120 simulations) for the spring population and 98.3% (118 of 120 simulations) for the fall population. Simulated population parameters were similar to independent estimates for 4 of 4 population parameters. Winter age ratios differed between our model ( juv:ad, n = 120, SE = 0.32) and empirical age ratios from harvested bobwhites on our study area ( juv:ad, n = 25, SE = 0.24). However, when we corrected harvest age ratios for bias in juvenile harvest ( juv:ad, n = 25, SE = 0.32) simulated and empirical estimates were similar. Our model appears to be a reliable predictor of bobwhite populations in the southern Texas. Our simulation results indicate that bobwhite hunters and managers can expect excellent bobwhite hunting (fall populations ≥2.2 birds per ha) in about one of 10 yr. © 2011 The Wildlife Society     

White-Tailed Deer Population Dynamics Following Louisiana Black Bear Recovery

Changing predator communities have been implicated in reduced survival of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) fawns. Few studies, however, have used field-based age-specific estimates for survival and fecundity to assess the relative importance of low fawn survival on population growth and harvest potential. We studied white-tailed deer population dynamics on Tensas River National Wildlife Refuge (TRNWR) in Louisiana, USA, where the predator community included bobcats (Lynx rufus), coyotes (Canis latrans), and a restored population of Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus). During 2013–2015, we radio-collared and monitored 70 adult (≥2.5 yrs) and 21 yearling (1.5-yr-old) female deer. Annual survival averaged 0.815 (95% CI = 0.734–0.904) for adults and 0.857 (95% CI = 0.720–1.00) for yearlings. We combined these estimates with concurrently collected fawn survival estimates (0.27; 95% CI = 0.185–0.398) to model population trajectories and elasticities. We used estimates of nonhunting survival (annual survival estimated excluding harvest mortality) to project population growth (λ) relative to 4 levels of harvest (0, 10%, 20%, 30%). Finally, we investigated effects of reduced fawn survival on population growth under current management and with elimination of female harvest. Despite substantial fawn predation, the deer population on TRNWR was increasing (λ = 1.06) and could sustain additional female harvest; however, the population was expected to decline at 20% (λ = 0.98) and 30% (λ = 0.94) female harvest. With no female harvest, the population was projected to increase with observed (λ = 1.15) and reduced fawn survival (λ = 1.02), but the population could not sustain current female harvest (10%) if fawn survival declined (λ = 0.90). For all scenarios, adult female survival was the most elastic parameter. Given the importance of adult female survival, the relative predictability in response of adult survival to harvest management, and the difficulty in altering fawn survival, reducing female harvest is likely the most efficient approach to compensate for low fawn survival. On highly productive sites such as ours, reduction, but not necessarily elimination, of harvest can mitigate effects of low fawn survival on population growth. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

TRENDS IN AGE STRUCTURE AND PRODUCTIVITY OF PACIFIC WALRUSES HARVESTED IN THE BERING STRAIT REGION OF ALASKA, 1952–2002

Pacific walruses ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) are harvested by subsistence hunters in Alaska as they migrate north through the Bering Strait in the spring. Harvest records and biological specimens have been collected from the Bering Strait communities of Little Diomede, Gambell, and Savoonga since the 1950s. Harvest levels in the Bering Strait region peaked in the late 1980s and declined thereafter; however, there was considerable variation in the size and composition of the harvests among communities and over time. The relationships among characteristics of the community harvests and the presence of temporal trends were investigated using generalized linear models. The proportion of females in the catch increased over time in all three communities, while the proportion pregnant among harvested females declined over the range of sample years. The ages of harvested walruses increased over time in all three communities through the 1980s, after which trends in age stabilized or began to decline. The age of first reproduction was significantly older for females sampled in 1975–1985 than for females sampled between 1952 and 1962 or 1992 and 1998. Factors thought to have influenced the size and composition of the catch over the past 50 yr include hunter preferences, harvest management regimes, environmental conditions, and changes in the population itself.