Decline in local abundance of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the Bay of Islands,New Zealand

Regional populations of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) around New Zealand are genetically isolated from each other and the species was recently classified as nationally endangered based on relatively small population sizes and reports of high calf mortality. Here, we estimate the abundance and trends in one of these regional populations, the Bay of Islands, using a photo‐identification database collected from 1997 to 1999 and from 2003 to 2006, containing a total of 3,841 records of 317 individual dolphins. Estimates of abundance obtained with the robust design fluctuated widely but showed a significant decline in the number of dolphins present in the bay over time (7.5% annual rate of decline). Temporary emigration was random and fluctuated considerably (γ  =  0.18, SE = 0.07 to γ  =  0.84, SE = 0.06). Apparent survival was estimated at 0.928 (CI = 0.911–0.942). Seasonal estimates (26 seasons) obtained in POPAN also showed a significant decline in abundance (5.8% annual rate of decline). Despite the decline observed in local abundance, dolphins continue to be found regularly in the Bay of Islands, suggesting that fewer dolphins use the bay on regular basis. Consequently, it seems that a change in habitat use, mortality and possibly low recruitment could underlie the apparent local decline.     

Bottlenose dolphins that forage with artisanal fishermen whistle differently

Acoustic communication is a taxonomically widespread phenomenon, crucial for social animals. We evaluate social sounds from bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) of Laguna, southern Brazil, whose social structure is organized around a cooperative foraging tactic with artisanal fishermen. This tactic involves stereotyped and coordinated behaviour by dolphins and fishermen and is performed by a subset of the dolphin population, splitting it into two distinct social communities. We compared the acoustic parameters and type of whistles emitted by dolphins of the “non‐cooperative” and “cooperative” communities, both during their interactions with fishermen and in times where dolphins were engaged in other types of foraging. Our findings show how dolphins’ social sounds differ between foraging tactics and social communities. The frequencies of six whistle types (ascending, descending, concave, convex, multiple, flat) were significantly dependent on tactics and communities. Ascending whistles were more common than expected during foraging without fishermen, and among dolphins of the non‐cooperative community. Whistle acoustic parameters (duration, number of inclination changes and inflection points, and initial, final, maximum, minimum frequencies) also varied between social communities. In general, whistles emitted by cooperative dolphins, mainly when not interacting with fishermen, tended to be shorter, had higher frequency and more inflections than those emitted by non‐cooperative dolphins. These results suggest that different whistles may convey specific information among dolphins related to foraging, which we hypothesize promote social cohesion among members of the same social community. These differences in acoustic repertoires add a new dimension of complexity to this unique human–animal interaction.     

Mark‐resight abundance and survival estimation of Indo‐Pacific bottlenose dolphins,Tursiops aduncus,in the Swatch‐of‐No‐Ground,Bangladesh

A mark‐resight analysis under Pollock's robust design was applied to Indo‐Pacific bottlenose dolphins Tursiops aduncus in the Swatch‐of‐No‐Ground (SoNG) submarine canyon, Bangladesh, during the winter seasons of 2005–2009. Information from sightings of photo‐identified individuals (1,144) and unmarked individuals generated abundance estimates of 1,701 (95% confidence interval [CI]= 1,533–1,888), 1,927 (95% CI = 1,851–2,006), 2,150 (95% CI = 1,906–2,425), and 2,239 (95% CI = 1,985–2,524) individuals for seasons 1–4, respectively. This makes the population among the largest assessed of the species. Overall apparent survival was estimated as 0.958 (95% CI = 0.802–0.992). Interseasonal probabilities of transitioning to an unobservable state were estimated as 0.045, 0.363, and 0.300 for years 1–2, 2–3, and 3–4, respectively, and the overall probability of remaining in an unobservable state was 0.688. These probabilities, together with an apparent increase in abundance during the study period, indicate that the identified dolphins are part of a larger superpopulation moving throughout a more extensive geographic area. Of the photo‐identified dolphins, 28.2% exhibited injuries related to entanglements with fishing gear. This implies a strong potential for fatal interactions that could jeopardize the conservation status of the population, which otherwise appears favorable.     

Assessing the abundance of Bristol Bay belugas with genetic mark‐recapture methods

The Bristol Bay stock of beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) is genetically distinct and resides in Bristol Bay year‐round. We estimated the abundance of this population using genetic mark‐recapture, whereby genetic markers from skin biopsies, collected between 2002 and 2011, were used to identify individuals. We identified 516 individual belugas in two inner bays, 468 from Kvichak Bay and 48 from Nushagak Bay, and recaptured 75 belugas in separate years. Using a POPAN Jolly‐Seber model, abundance was estimated at 1,928 belugas (95% CI = 1,611–2,337), not including calves, which were not sampled. Most belugas were sampled in Kvichak Bay at a time when belugas are also known to occur in Nushagak Bay. The pattern of genetic recaptures and data from belugas with satellite transmitters suggested that belugas in the two bays regularly mix. Hence, the estimate of abundance likely applies to all belugas within Bristol Bay. Simulations suggested that POPAN estimates of abundance are robust to most forms of emigration, but that emigration causes negative bias in both capture and survival probabilities. Because it is likely that some belugas do not enter the sampling area during sampling, our estimate of abundance is best considered a minimum population size.     

High calf mortality in bottlenose dolphins in the Bay of Islands,New Zealand–a local unit in decline

Bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the Bay of Islands, New Zealand, have been studied for almost two decades. Since 2003, fewer than 150 dolphins visited the bay during each season and the local unit has declined 7.5% annually from 1997 to 2006. The causes of decline are unclear but probably include mortality and emigration. Here, we used a long‐term database to estimate reproductive parameters of female bottlenose dolphins including recruitment rates. A total of 704 surveys were conducted in which 5,577 sightings of 408 individually identified dolphins were collected; of these 53 individuals were identified as reproductive females. The calving rate increased between periods (1997–1999 = 0.13, CL = 0.07–0.21; 2003–2005 = 0.25, CL = 0.16–0.35 calves/reproductive female/year). A 0.25 calving rate suggests that on average, a female gives birth only once every four years, which is consistent with the estimated calving interval (4.3 yr, SD = 1.45) but still is lower than values reported for other populations. Conversely, apparent mortality rates to age 1+ (range: 0.34–0.52) and 2+ (range: 0.15–0.59) were higher than values reported elsewhere. The high apparent calf mortality in conjunction with a decline in local abundance, highlight the vulnerability of bottlenose dolphins in the Bay of Islands. Long‐term studies are required to understand the causes of high calf mortality and the decline in local abundance. Meanwhile, management should focus on minimizing sources of anthropogenic disturbance and enforcing compliance with current legislation.     

The influence of cooperative foraging with fishermen on the dynamics of a bottlenose dolphin population

Recent years have seen an increasing interest in individual behavioral variation. However, the implications of such variation for population dynamics are often unknown. We studied the dynamics of a bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus gephyreus) population from southern Brazil, where some individuals forage cooperatively with artisanal fishermen. We fitted mark‐recapture models to 10 yr of photo‐identification data to investigate the influence of this foraging specialization on dolphins’ population parameters, controlling for sex and ranging behavior. We estimated adult survival to be high (0.949 ± 0.015 SE), weakly influenced by home range size, sex or the frequency of interaction with fishermen. The slightly higher survival probability for individuals with smaller home ranges could stem from the benefits of reduced spatial requirements implied by the specialized foraging. Foraging also influenced the probability of resighting individuals, and there was no temporary or permanent emigration. Abundance fluctuated slightly over the years from 54 (95% CI = 49–59) to 60 (95% CI = 52–69) individuals, with no evident population trend. Despite such apparent population stability, we confirm this population remains small and geographically isolated which may threaten its viability and the viability of its unusual, localized foraging specialization. Our study also illustrates how accounting for individual variation can portray animal population dynamics more realistically.     

Mark‐recapture modeling accounting for state uncertainty provides concurrent estimates of survival and fecundity in a protected harbor seal population

Harbor seal breeding behavior and habitats constrain opportunities for individual‐based studies, and no current estimates of both survival and fecundity exist for any of the populations studied worldwide. As a result, the drivers underlying the variable trends in abundance exhibited by harbor seal populations around the world remain uncertain. We developed an individual‐based study of harbor seals in northeast Scotland, whereby data were collected during daily photo‐identification surveys throughout the pupping seasons between 2006 and 2011. However, a consequence of observing seals remotely meant that information on sex, maturity‐stage, or breeding status was not always available. To provide unbiased estimates of survival rates we conditioned initial release of individuals on the first time sex was known to estimate sex‐specific survival rates, while a robust design multistate model accounting for uncertainty in breeding status was used to estimate reproductive rate of multiparous and ≥3‐yr‐old females. Survival rates were estimated at 0.95 (95% CI = 0.91–0.97) for females and 0.92 (0.83–0.96) for males, while reproductive rate was estimated at 0.89 (0.75–0.95) for multiparous and 0.69 (0.64–0.74) for ≥3‐yr‐old females. Stage‐based population modeling indicated that this population should be recovering, even under the current shooting quotas implemented by the recent management plan.     

Survival and abundance of short‐finned pilot whales in the archipelago of Madeira,NE Atlantic

Estimates of population parameters for the short‐finned pilot whale, Globicephala macrorhynchus, are scarce in literature, contributing to an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) status of Data Deficient. In this study, photo‐identification data collected over 7 yr from Madeira were used to estimate for the first time survivorship, capture probability, and abundance in this species using mark‐recapture methodology. The Cormack‐Jolly‐Seber model estimated that the adult island‐associated (i.e., resident and regular visitor) whales had a constant survival rate of 0.960 (95% CI: 0.853–0.990) and an annual capture probability varying between 0.372 (CI: 0.178–0.619) and 0.843 (CI: 0.619–0.947). A parameterization of the Jolly‐Seber model estimated that 140 island‐associated whales (CI: 131–151) used the area throughout the course of the study. Based on a closed population model, the most precise (lower CV) annual estimate of the total number of pilot whales using the southern and eastern waters of Madeira (~900 km²) in a 3 mo period covering summer/autumn was 334 animals (CI: 260–437). No trend was observed. Despite including biases, the approach used in this study provided plausible estimates of population parameters, which can contribute to the regional conservation strategies.     

Recovery rates of bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) carcasses estimated from stranding and survival rate data

Recovery of cetacean carcasses provides data on levels of human‐caused mortality, but represents only a minimum count of impacts. Counts of stranded carcasses are negatively biased by factors that include at‐sea scavenging, sinking, drift away from land, stranding in locations where detection is unlikely, and natural removal from beaches due to wave and tidal action prior to detection. We estimate the fraction of carcasses recovered for a population of coastal bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus), using abundance and survival rate data to estimate annual deaths in the population. Observed stranding numbers are compared to expected deaths to estimate the fraction of carcasses recovered. For the California coastal population of bottlenose dolphins, we estimate the fraction of carcasses recovered to be 0.25 (95% CI = 0.20–0.33). During a 12 yr period, 327 animals (95% CI = 253–413) were expected to have died and been available for recovery, but only 83 carcasses attributed to this population were documented. Given the coastal habits of California coastal bottlenose dolphins, it is likely that carcass recovery rates of this population greatly exceed recovery rates of more pelagic dolphin species in the region.     

High Turnover Rates in Remnant Populations of the Harlequin Frog Atelopus cruciger (Bufonidae): Low Risk of Extinction?

Atelopus is among the most threatened of all amphibian genera. Most species of harlequin frogs disappeared more than two decades ago and only a few still exist. From ten critically endangered Atelopus species endemic to Venezuela, Atelopus cruciger is the only one that can be located at present. To assess the status of remnant populations of A. cruciger and to provide the demographic data for designing in situ management programs, we estimated: (1) the population size; (2) the apparent survival; and (3) the recruitment rates of one remnant population using mark‐recapture data. The adult population size varied (69–117), and this variation was not related to that of abundance indices based on visual counts at the river margins. Thus, caution is recommended when using visual counts as an index of abundance in Atelopus, because capture rates differ significantly among months and between seasons. Despite the observed variations, this population appears to be stable. Previous reports suggest that species of Atelopus are long‐lived. For populations of long‐lived species to remain approximately constant, recruitment must be low. Our mark‐recapture study, however, showed that adults tend to remain in the population for approximately 15 mo, but an average of 165 new frogs are recruited every year. Although immigration and emigration are possibilities, the site fidelity and the absence of nearby streams suggests that movement in and out of the study area is less important than births and deaths. Under the proposed hypothesis of a short life expectancy/high recruitment, the risk of extinction must be lower than previously thought.     

Studying small purse‐seine vessel fishing behavior with tuna catch data: Implications for eastern Pacific Ocean dolphin conservation

Despite achievements in dolphin conservation for the tuna purse‐seine fishery of the eastern Pacific Ocean, debate continues about the magnitude and importance of dolphin mortality caused by small (unobserved) vessels. In‐port sampling of tuna catch size composition is a potentially cost‐effective means of identifying unobserved vessels that may be catching tunas associated with dolphins because yellowfin tuna caught in association with dolphins are larger, on average, than those caught in other types of purse‐seine sets. A classification algorithm to predict purse‐seine set type (“dolphin” vs. “nondolphin”) was built from port‐sampling data on yellowfin tuna length‐frequencies and the date and location of fishing of large (observed) vessels. This classification algorithm was used to screen the port‐sampling data of small vessels collected during 2006‐2009, assuming the fishing practices of the two groups resulted in similar catch characteristics. From these results, hypothetical time series of dolphin mortality for small vessels were constructed and incorporated into a population dynamics model, along with mortalities of large vessels. Results suggest that any dolphin mortality of small vessels is unlikely to be substantially affecting trends in dolphin abundance. These results underscore the importance of in‐port sampling, in combination with at‐sea observation and fishery‐independent surveys, to effective management.     

Accounting for transients when estimating abundance of bottlenose dolphins in Choctawhatchee Bay,Florida

We investigated the potential for using mark–recapture models to estimate abundance of bottlenose dolphin populations in open systems (e.g., bays, estuaries). A major challenge in these systems is that immigration and emigration occur during sampling, thus violating one of the most basic assumptions of mark–recapture models. We assumed that dolphins using our study site were composed of both residents (those that used the study area almost exclusively during our study), and transients (those that passed through our study area but did not remain long), and examined several mark–recapture estimators for their ability to accurately and precisely estimate the abundance of residents and the superpopulation (i.e., residents + transients). Using simulated data, we found that a novel approach accounting for transients resulted in estimators with less bias, smaller absolute relative error, and confidence interval coverage closer to nominal than other approaches, but this novel approach required intensive sampling and that the “correct” transient pattern be specified. In contrast, classical mark–recapture estimators for closed populations often overestimated the number of residents and underestimated the superpopulation. Using photo-identification records, a model-averaged estimate of the superpopulation of bottlenose dolphins in and around Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida was 232 (SE = 13) animals. We estimated resident abundance at 179 (SE = 8), which was lower than the number of unique animals we encountered (188). Our results appear promising for developing monitoring programs for bottlenose dolphins and other taxa in open systems. Our estimators should prove useful to wildlife managers who wish to base conservation decisions on estimates of the number of animals that reside primarily in their study or management area. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Seasonal variations in spatial usage by the estuarine dolphin, Sotalia guianensis (van Bénéden, 1864) (Cetacea; Delphinidae) at its southern limit of distribution.

The use of space by the resident population of estuarine dolphins (Sotalia guianensis) in Norte Bay, southern Brazil was studied by boat surveys between 2000 and 2003. Data such as the geographical position and group size was collected at 5-minute intervals using focal-group sampling. The distribution and seasonal and daily group home-ranges were estimated using a GIS (Geographic Information System) environment. The dolphins did not use the area homogeneously, restricting their activities to a well-defined area located in the western part of the bay, while the use of the eastern part was not observed. A discrepancy between the Environment Protection Area of Anhatomirim, created especially to protect this population and the distribution of the dolphins was observed. Seasonal group home-range varied both qualitatively and quantitatively among the four consecutive seasons analyzed. The dolphins tended to use a larger area in cold seasons, when apparently the abundance of major prey items is lower. Core areas of intense use were identified, and also varied seasonally. These core areas may be regarded as critical habitats and require special legislation and control. The mean daily group home-range did not differ statistically among seasons. The present study corroborates a spatially strict residency pattern of the estuarine dolphin in highly productive coastal ecosystems.     

El Niño Southern Oscillation influences the abundance and movements of a marine top predator in coastal waters

Large‐scale climate modes such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence population dynamics in many species, including marine top predators. However, few quantitative studies have investigated the influence of large‐scale variability on resident marine top predator populations. We examined the effect of climate variability on the abundance and temporary emigration of a resident bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus) population off Bunbury, Western Australia (WA). This population has been studied intensively over six consecutive years (2007–2013), yielding a robust dataset that captures seasonal variations in both abundance and movement patterns. In WA, ENSO affects the strength of the Leeuwin Current (LC), the dominant oceanographic feature in the region. The strength and variability of the LC affects marine ecosystems and distribution of top predator prey. We investigated the relationship between dolphin abundance and ENSO, Southern Annular Mode, austral season, rainfall, sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature (SST). Linear models indicated that dolphin abundance was significantly affected by ENSO, and that the magnitude of the effect was dependent upon season. Dolphin abundance was lowest during winter 2009, when dolphins had high temporary emigration rates out of the study area. This coincided with the single El Niño event that occurred throughout the study period. Coupled with this event, there was a negative anomaly in SST and an above average rainfall. These conditions may have affected the distribution of dolphin prey, resulting in the temporary emigration of dolphins out of the study area in search of adequate prey. This study demonstrated the local effects of large‐scale climatic variations on the short‐term response of a resident, coastal delphinid species. With a projected global increase in frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, resident marine top predators may not only have to contend with increasing coastal anthropogenic activities, but also have to adapt to large‐scale climatic changes.     

Joint estimation of survival and breeding probability in female dolphins and calves with uncertainty in state assignment

While the population growth rate in long‐lived species is highly sensitive to adult survival, reproduction can also significantly drive population dynamics. Reproductive parameters can be challenging to estimate as breeders and nonbreeders may vary in resighting probability and reproductive status may be difficult to assess. We extended capture–recapture (CR) models previously fitted for data on other long‐lived marine mammals to estimate demographic parameters while accounting for detection heterogeneity between individuals and state uncertainty regarding reproductive status. We applied this model to data on 106 adult female bottlenose dolphins observed over 13 years. The detection probability differed depending on breeding status. Concerning state uncertainty, offspring were not always sighted with their mother, and older calves were easier to detect than young‐of‐the‐year (YOY), respectively, 0.79 (95% CI 0.59–0.90) and 0.58 (95% CI 0.46–0.68). This possibly led to inaccurate reproductive status assignment of females. Adult female survival probability was high (0.97 CI 95% 0.96–0.98) and did not differ according to breeding status. Young‐of‐the‐year and 1‐year‐old calves had a significantly higher survival rate than 2‐year‐old (respectively, 0.66 CI 95% 0.50–0.78 and 0.45 CI 95% 0.29–0.61). This reduced survival is probably related to weaning, a period during which young are exposed to more risks since they lose protection and feeding from the mother. The probability of having a new YOY was high for breeding females that had raised a calf to the age of 3 or lost a 2‐year‐old calf (0.71, CI 95% 0.45–0.88). Yet, this probability was much lower for nonbreeding females and breeding females that had lost a YOY or a 1‐year‐old calf (0.33, 95% CI 0.26–0.42). The multievent CR framework we used is highly flexible and could be easily modified for other study questions or taxa (marine or terrestrial) aimed at modeling reproductive parameters.     

Population trends for humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) foraging in the Francisco Coloane Coastal‐Marine Protected Area,Magellan Strait,Chile

In 2003 a feeding aggregation of southeastern Pacific humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) was reported in the Magellan Strait. While Chile established its first marine national park in the Strait to protect humpback whale habitat, fatal ship strikes remain a concern because of overlap with a busy shipping lane. To better understand population risk, we estimated abundance and survival for this population using Bayesian robust‐design mark‐recapture models fit to photographic data from 2004 to 2016. Overall, the model estimated a total of 204 whales (95% CI: 199–210) during the last 12 yr, and 93 (95% CI: 86–100) in the 2016/2017 austral summer. The population grew at 2.3% (CI: 2.1%–3.1%), an annual increase of two whales. Annual survival (including calves) was estimated at 0.892 (CI: 0.871–0.910). Our results corroborate a persistent feeding population, but one that is increasing relatively slowly. Owing to its vulnerability stemming from its small size, coupled with significant overlap with a busy shipping lane, we argue this subpopulation is at significant risk from ship strikes and may be one of the few populations where anthropogenic mortalities could regulate population dynamics. We therefore encourage continued monitoring via photographic mark‐resighting surveys, and analyses explicitly investigating potential population‐level ship strike effects.     

Site fidelity,residency, and abundance of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops sp.) in Adelaide's coastal waters,South Australia

Little is known about the ecology and behavior of southern Australian bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops sp.). This hinders assessment of their conservation status and informed decision‐making concerning their management. We used boat‐based surveys and photo‐identification data to investigate site fidelity, residency patterns, and the abundance of southern Australian bottlenose dolphins in Adelaide's coastal waters. Sighting rates and site fidelity varied amongst individuals, and agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis led to the categorization of individuals into one of three groups: occasional visitors, seasonal residents, or year‐round residents. Lagged identification rates indicated that these dolphins used the study area regularly from year to year following a model of emigration and reimmigration. Abundance estimates obtained from multisample closed capture‐recapture models ranged from 95 individuals (SE ± 45.20) in winter 2013 to 239 (SE ± 54.91) in summer 2014. The varying levels of site fidelity and residency, and the relatively high number of dolphins found throughout the study area highlights the Adelaide metropolitan coast as an important habitat for bottlenose dolphins. As these dolphins also appear to spend considerable time outside the study area, future research, conservation, and management efforts on this population must take into account anthropogenic activities within Adelaide's coastal waters and their adjacencies.     

Likely future extirpation of another Asian river dolphin: The critically endangered population of the Irrawaddy dolphin in the Mekong River is small and declining

The population of Irrawaddy dolphins that occupies the Mekong River in southern Lao People's Democratic Republic and Cambodia is classified as Critically Endangered by the IUCN. Based on capture‐recapture of photo‐identified individuals, we estimated that the total population numbered 93 ±  SE 3.90 individuals (95% CI 86–101), as of April 2007. The combined photo‐identification and carcass recovery program undertaken from 2001 to 2007 established that the Irrawaddy dolphin population inhabiting the Mekong River has reached a critical point with regards to its continued survival, where immediate research and management actions are required to greatly reduce adult mortality, and establish the cause of newborn mortality. In addition, community consultation is required to initiate, and evaluate, urgently required conservation measures. An ongoing well‐designed combined program of abundance estimation (i.e., photo‐identification) and carcass recovery is required to monitor total population size and mortality rates, to inform and evaluate management initiatives. The conclusions of this paper are likely generic to river dolphin populations, particularly where photo‐identification is possible.     

Assessing population parameters and trends of Guiana dolphins (Sotalia guianensis): An eight‐year mark‐recapture study

This study represents the first attempt to study the population dynamics of Guiana dolphins (Sotalia guianensis), by evaluating a set of demographic parameters. The population of the Caravelas River estuary, eastern Brazil, was systematically monitored through a long‐term mark‐recapture experiment (2002–2009). Abundance estimates revealed a small population (57–124 dolphins), comprised of resident dolphins and individuals that temporarily leave or pass through the study area. Temporary emigration from the estuary to adjacencies (γ″= 0.33 ± 0.07 SE) and return rate (1 ?γ′= 0 .67) were moderate and constant, indicating that some dolphins use larger areas. Survival rate (?= 0.88 ± 0.07 SE) and abundance were constant throughout the study period. Power analysis showed that the current monitoring effort has high probability of detecting abrupt population declines (1 ?β= 0.9). Although the monitoring is not yet sensitive to subtle population trends, sufficient time to identify them is feasible (additional 3 yr). Despite such apparent stability, this population, as many others, inhabits waters exposed to multiple human‐related threats. Open and closed population modeling applied to photo‐identification data provide a robust baseline for estimating several demographic parameters and can be applied to other populations to allow further comparisons. Such synergistic efforts will allow a reliable definition of conservation status of this species.     

Laying date,body mass and tick infestation of nestling tropical Roseate Terns Sterna dougallii predict fledging success,first‐year survival and age at first return to the natal colony

Both intrinsic and extrinsic factors recorded at individual nests can predict offspring fitness and survival but few studies have examined these effects in the tropics. We recorded nestling survival, post‐fledging survival and age at first return of Roseate Terns breeding at Aride Island, Seychelles, over a 12‐year period (1998–2009). Nest data recorded at the egg, nestling and fledging stages were collected during six breeding seasons (1998, 2001–2005) and a capture‐mark‐recapture dataset of six cohorts of fledglings was obtained from 2001–2009. Logistic regression models were used to assess the predictive effect of reproductive variables on fledging success, while multistate capture‐mark‐recapture models were used to estimate post‐fledging survival and return–recruitment probabilities to the natal site. Nestling survival probability increased with earliness of laying and was negatively affected by tick infestation during the growth period (0–23 days). Fledging probability was also positively related to chick body condition, whereas other pre‐fledging reproductive parameters such as clutch size and egg size were not influential. A multistate modelling of age‐specific survival and return–recruitment (transition) rates found that first‐year survival differed between cohorts and was also negatively affected by tick infestation. Annual survival stabilized from age 2 onwards at 0.83 ± 0.02. Transition rates were positively related to body condition at fledging, with heavier individuals returning for the first time to the natal colony at a younger age compared with lighter individuals. These results highlight the importance of local conditions encountered by tropical seabirds during the breeding season in shaping demographic parameters.