Applying macrophyte community indicators to assess anthropogenic pressures on shallow soft bottoms

Vegetated soft bottoms are under pressure due to a number of anthropogenic stressors, such as coastal exploitation and eutrophication. The ecological value of these biotopes has gained recognition through international conventions and the EU directives, which request methods for assessment of the environmental status of coastal areas. However, currently there is no appropriate method for assessing the status of shallow vegetated soft bottoms in the northern Baltic Sea. Therefore, we developed a macrophyte community index and tested its response in relation to important pressures (eutrophication and boating activity) and natural gradients (topographic openness, depth and salinity) on shallow bays in the northern Baltic Sea. The macrophyte index, and hence the proportion of sensitive to tolerant species, decreased with increasing phosphorus concentration, turbidity and level of boating activity, while the cumulative cover of macrophytes only showed a negative trend in response to increasing turbidity. Juvenile fish abundance was positively related to the index, indicating importance of sensitive macrophyte species for ecosystem functioning. As the index was tested in a wide geographic area, and showed a uniform response across natural gradients, it is a promising tool for assessment of environmental status that may be applied also in other vegetated soft-bottom areas.     

Vulnerability of benthic habitats to the aquatic invasive species

A comparative vulnerability analysis of 16 selected benthic habitat types in the SE Baltic Sea waters and the Curonian lagoon, including Klaipeda strait, was performed using long-term monitoring datasets (1980–2003) and results of several other surveys in the lagoon and the sea. Results indicated that invasive species richness (number of alien species per habitat) in lagoon habitats was significantly higher than in the sea. Habitats formed by artificial rock and stone, sand, mud, and habitats modified by zebra mussel shell deposits appeared to be the most invaded. Highest invasive species richness occurred in habitats with high native species richness indicating that the main factors driving native species distribution (such as favourable physical conditions, habitat alterations generated by human or/and biotic activities) are also driving aquatic invaders. Physical factors distinguished to be the most important for native and invasive species distribution were salinity, depth range (expressed by the maximal and minimal depths difference within a habitat), shallowness of a habitat (expressed by a minimal depth), and availability of a hard substrate.     

Depth distributions of Fucus vesiculosus L. and Zostera marina L. as classification parameters for implementing the European Water Framework Directive on the German Baltic coast

A classification approach was developed within the European Water Framework Directive for the outer coastal waters of the German Baltic Sea. We concentrated on the known recent presence and depth distribution of Zostera marina and Fucus vesiculosus along the German coast. According to the European Water Framework Directive the reference conditions were reconstructed based on historical data. The available databases indicate that both species formerly occurred down to 10 m depth along the whole German Baltic Sea coastline, independent on the salinity gradient. The recent depth distribution of Z. marina varied between 2.5 and 7.9 m along the German Baltic coast. Dense F. vesiculosus stands were observed only along the western part of this coast at a maximum depth of 4.7 m. Comparing the historical data sets with recent findings reveals a strong decline of depth limits for both species during the last century. Therefore, we used both species to describe the degradation of the Baltic Sea coastal waters using change in the depth distribution. The boundaries of the ecological status according to the Water Framework Directive were calculated based on modelling. Ecophysiological light demands of species and decrease of water transparency (light reduction in percent) were used to describe the degradations. This approach is robust against variation of macrophyte light requirements and is straightforward to classify recent long-term macrophyte monitoring. However, it is very sensitive against changes in the depth distribution and may result in erroneous estimations of ecological class boundaries when insufficient historical data are used as reference. This model allows the adaption of the boundaries calculations to new knowledge about historical data and ecophysiological light demand of plants. Actually, the boundaries of the classification were defined as follows: 1% light reduction represents the transition from high/pristine to good ecological status, and 5% indicates the transition from good to moderate status. At least 25% reduction corresponds to a poor status, more than 75% to a bad status.     

Predicting Species Cover of Marine Macrophyte and Invertebrate Species Combining Hyperspectral Remote Sensing,Machine Learning and Regression Techniques

In order to understand biotic patterns and their changes in nature there is an obvious need for high-quality seamless measurements of such patterns. If remote sensing methods have been applied with reasonable success in terrestrial environment, their use in aquatic ecosystems still remained challenging. In the present study we combined hyperspectral remote sensing and boosted regression tree modelling (BTR), an ensemble method for statistical techniques and machine learning, in order to test their applicability in predicting macrophyte and invertebrate species cover in the optically complex seawater of the Baltic Sea. The BRT technique combined with remote sensing and traditional spatial modelling succeeded in identifying, constructing and testing functionality of abiotic environmental predictors on the coverage of benthic macrophyte and invertebrate species. Our models easily predicted a large quantity of macrophyte and invertebrate species cover and recaptured multitude of interactions between environment and biota indicating a strong potential of the method in the modelling of aquatic species in the large variety of ecosystems.     

N:P stoichiometric changes via species turnover in arid versus saline desert environments

1. Aridity and salinity have a key role in driving physiological and ecological processes in desert ecosystems. However, how community‐scale foliar nutrients respond to aridity and salinity, and how these responses might vary with community composition along aridity and salinity gradients is unclear. We hypothesize that the response will be a shift in community stoichiometric values resulting from nutrient variability of shared species and unique species (site‐specific species), but little research has addressed the relative contribution of either component.
2. We analyzed the community‐scale stoichiometric response of a desert community of perennial plants along an aridity and salinity transect by focusing on foliar nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) concentrations and N:P ratios. After evaluating the shared and unique species variability, we determined their relative contribution to the community stoichiometric response to aridity and salinity, reflected by changes in nonweighted and weighted community‐average values.
3. Community‐scale stoichiometry decreased significantly under aridity and salinity, with significantly consistent changes in nonweighted and weighted community‐average stoichiometry for most shared and unique species measurements. The relative contribution of unique species shifts to the changes in community stoichiometry was greater (15%–77%) than the relative contribution of shared species shifts (7%–45%), excluding the change in weighted P concentration under aridity. Thus, the shifts of unique species amplified the community stoichiometric response to environmental changes.
4. Synthesis. These results highlighted the need for a more in‐depth consideration of shared and unique species variability to understand and predict the effects of environmental change on the stoichiometry of plant communities. Although variation in community stoichiometry can be expected under extreme aridity and salinity conditions, changes of unique species could be a more important driver of the stoichiometric response of plant communities.

     

Present and past depth distribution of bladderwrack (Fucus vesiculosus) in the Baltic Sea

This study aimed to (1) assess the present depth distribution of Fucus vesiculosus in the Baltic Sea and evaluate differences between districts and (2) assess long-term and recent changes in depth distribution and evaluate reasons for such changes. This was done through compilation and analysis of existing data (3356 obs.). Depth limits were shallowest in the Kattegat, the Danish Belts and the Øresund (∼1.5 m on average), located at the entrance of the Baltic Sea and markedly deeper in the central and inner parts of the Baltic (up to ∼4.5 m on average). This increase in depth limits to some extent matched the decline in salinity and may in part be explained by reduced competition when species diversity decreases successively along the Baltic salinity gradient. In the central and inner Baltic Sea, Secchi depths explained part of the variation (16%) in depth limits and the majority (85%) of the variation in maximum attainable depth limits whereas at the entrance of the Baltic Secchi depths explained a negligible part of the variation (∼1%). In most districts, depth limits moved upwards during the 20th century. In many cases this happened during or shortly after the 1960s/1970s, and was most likely due to eutrophication.     

Sponge communities of the Antarctic Peninsula: influence of environmental variables on species composition and richness

Sponge communities on the Antarctic continental shelf currently represent one of the most extensive sponge grounds in the world, and all sponge classes are known to occur in the Southern Ocean. Main objectives of this study conducted at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula were (1) to identify all sampled sponges and (2) to investigate whether the species composition and species richness of Southern Ocean sponge communities in the area of the Antarctic Peninsula are significantly influenced by environmental variables. The studied material originated from 25 AGT catches and was sampled during the expedition ANT-XXIX/3 of RV Polarstern. Samples were collected in three large-scale areas in the vicinity of the Antarctic Peninsula: Bransfield Strait, Drake Passage and Weddell Sea. The following six environmental variables were measured from bottom water samples (except for sea-ice cover): depth (m), light transmission (%), oxygen (µmol/kg), salinity, sea-ice cover (%) and temperature (°C). Two hundred and sixty-three sponge samples were analyzed, and 81 species of 33 genera from all Porifera classes (Calcarea, Demospongiae, Hexactinellida and Homoscleromorpha) were identified. Total numbers of sponge species per sample station ranged from 1 to 29. A detrended correspondence analysis and a backward-stepwise model selection were performed to check whether species composition and richness were significantly influenced by environmental variables. The analyses revealed that none of the measured environmental variables significantly influenced species composition but that species richness was significantly influenced by (1) temperature and (2) the combination of temperature and depth. Results of this study are of crucial importance for development, performance and assessment of future protection strategies in case of ongoing climatic changes at the Antarctic Peninsula.     

Predicting zebra mussel fouling on native mussels from physicochemical variables

1. Predictive models of impact are needed for the risk assessment of invasive species. One such species is the Eurasian zebra mussel ( Dreissena polymorpha ), a fouling bivalve that overgrows and kills native mussels (Unionidae) in many North American lakes and rivers. The level of mortality in a native mussel population increases with the fouling intensity – i.e. the mean number of zebra mussels attached to each native mussel.
2. We conducted a multi-site survey within the St Lawrence and Richelieu rivers (Quebec, Canada) to determine whether zebra mussel fouling intensity can be predicted from environmental variables. We found fouling intensity to be positively correlated with calcium concentration [Ca²⁺] and negatively correlated with sediment size, but not affected by local macrophyte cover.
3. A multiple regression model that includes calcium concentration and sediment size explains 86% of variation in fouling intensity across all sites.
4. Analysis of data from invaded sites in North America and Europe revealed a nonlinear relationship in which fouling intensity increases with calcium concentration up to an asymptotic threshold of 24 mg L⁻¹ Ca²⁺.
5. Our results suggest that the community-level impacts of zebra mussels are mediated by abiotic environmental variables and gradients in these variables may provide local habitat refugia for native mussels.     

Rating species sensitivity throughout gradient systems – a consistent approach for the Baltic Sea

Evaluating the state of benthic communities has played an important role in water quality assessments. Indices incorporating species sensitivities, richness and densities are commonly applied. In Europe, the importance of benthic indices has increased in the last years with the implementation of the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) which at the same time demands the applicability of an index across regional scales. To date, environmental variability is rarely considered in benthic indices and most sensitivity rankings have the disadvantages of static values (i.e. the same value in all areas), expert judgement and a limited geographical range.This study presents species sensitivity values calculated along environmental gradients for the Baltic Sea. Sensitivities were calculated according to the procedure of the Benthic Quality Index (BQI). We created a matrix of subregions, classes of salinity, depth and gear to identify comparable subsets for data analysis. Altogether, 19 subsets were defined within the Baltic Sea basins. Sensitivity values were calculated for 329 species out of a total of 678 species that were recorded in this study. Sensitivity values of taxa vary between subsets as it was expected for different environmental conditions. Most sensitivity values can be assigned to species occurring in euhaline and polyhaline waters. Distribution of species with high and low sensitivity values differed along the salinity gradient. In euhaline waters more species with high sensitivity values occurred than species with low sensitivity values, while in mesohaline waters the ratio of high and low sensitivity values among species was almost equal. In oligohaline waters more species with lower sensitivity values were present.For the first time, sensitivity values were calculated for a large number of species using the same method for the entire Baltic Sea. This results in a Baltic-wide comprehensive set of sensitivity values based on a dataset across subregional borders, and divided along environmental gradients and gear type. The same principles can be applied to transient waters from rivers to coastal lagoons as well as to other environments with gradients of, e.g. hydrodynamic characteristics. Publicly available sensitivity values will increase transparency and support the improvement of state assessments under the MSFD.     

Further expansion of the genus Cercopagis (Crustacea,Branchiopoda, Onychopoda) in the Baltic Sea,with notes on the taxa present and their ecology

The onychopod cladoceran Cercopagis that recently invaded the Baltic Sea is reported from new zones of the northern Baltic proper. Because of successful survival and an expanding distribution range, the addition of Cercopagis to the Baltic fauna is considered to be permanent. What has previously been cited as Cercopagis pengoi encompasses the morphology of several other species, subspecies and forms. Either a number of morphologically similar species is present, or there is a number of spurious species in Cercopagis. The last hypothesis is favoured. The spatial distribution pattern of Cercopagis, as well as that of total zooplankton, was correlated with depth. Deep (>100 m) and shallow (<10 m) stations had significantly lower abundance than stations of intermediate depth (<100 m). An overview of the distribution of C. pengoi group in fresh and brackish waters suggests a high tolerance to environmental factors, but with differences among taxa. Due to this ecological flexibility, the colonization of the Baltic is not unexpected. Increasing salinity may restrict dispersal of cercopagids to the southern areas of the Baltic and to the North Sea, but inland lakes (e.g. in Sweden) present an ecological profile suitable for colonization.     

Scenario simulations of future salinity and ecological consequences in the Baltic Sea and adjacent North Sea areas–implications for environmental monitoring

Substantial ecological changes occurred in the 1970s in the Northern Baltic during a temporary period of low salinity (S). This period was preceded by an episodic increase in the rainfall over the Baltic Sea watershed area. Several climate models, both global and regional, project an increase in the runoff of the Northern latitudes due to proceeding climate change. The aim of this study is to model, firstly, the effects on Baltic Sea salinity of increased runoff due to projected global change and, secondly, the effects of salinity change on the distribution of marine species. The results suggest a critical shift in the S range 5–7, which is a threshold for both freshwater and marine species distributions and diversity. We discuss several topics emphasizing future monitoring, modelling, and fisheries research. Environmental monitoring and modelling are investigated because the developing alternative ecosystems do not necessarily show the same relations to environment quality factors as the retiring ones. An important corollary is that the observed and modelled S changes considered together with species’ ranges indicate what may appear under a future climate. Consequences could include a shift in distribution areas of marine benthic foundation species and some 40–50 other species, affiliated to these. This change would extend over hundreds of kilometres, in the Baltic Sea and the adjacent North Sea areas. Potential cascading effects, in coastal ecology, fish ecology and fisheries would be extensive, and point out the necessity to develop further the “ecosystem approach in the environmental monitoring”.     

Untangling climate and water chemistry to predict changes in freshwater macrophyte distributions

Forecasting changes in the distributions of macrophytes is essential to understanding how aquatic ecosystems will respond to climate and environmental changes. Previous work in aquatic ecosystems has used climate data at large scales and chemistry data at small scales; the consequence of using these different data types has not been evaluated. This study combines a survey of macrophyte diversity and water chemistry measurements at a large regional scale to demonstrate the feasibility and necessity of including ecological measurements, in addition to climate data, in species distribution models of aquatic macrophytes. A survey of 740 water bodies stratified across 327,000 square kilometers was conducted to document Characeae (green macroalgae) species occurrence and water chemistry data. Chemistry variables and climate data were used separately and in concert to develop species distribution models for ten species across the study area. The impacts of future environmental changes on species distributions were modeled using a range of global climate models (GCMs), representative concentration pathways (RCPs), and pollution scenarios. Models developed with chemistry variables generally gave the most accurate predictions of species distributions when compared with those using climate variables. Calcium and conductivity had the highest total relative contribution to models across all species. Habitat changes were most pronounced in scenarios with increased road salt and deicer influences, with two species predicted to increase in range by >50% and four species predicted to decrease in range by >50%. Species of Characeae have distinct habitat ranges that closely follow spatial patterns of water chemistry. Species distribution models built with climate data alone were insufficient to predict changes in distributions in the study area. The development and implementation of standardized, large‐scale water chemistry databases will aid predictions of habitat changes for aquatic ecosystems.     

Assessing maximum depth distribution,vegetated area,and production of submerged macrophytes in shallow,turbid coastal lagoons of the southern Baltic Sea

Submerged macrophytes improve water quality in shallow coastal lagoons but eutrophication often resulted in a degradation of macrophytes. Management measures that protect and restore macrophyte stands require knowledge on what limits macrophyte distribution. Information on macrophyte production and distribution in the Darss-Zingst Bodden Chain (southern Baltic Sea) is lacking since an almost complete loss of submerged vegetation in the 1980s. Nutrient input was reduced in the 1990s and macrophytes seem to recover, although turbidity is high and light conditions are still poor. However, this recovery raised hope that returning macrophytes could stabilize sediments and improve water clarity. In this study, seasonal changes in photosynthesis–irradiance curves of selected macrophyte species were used to calculate potential primary production in different depths and turbidity situations. Bathymetry of the area is then used to assess depth distribution and vegetated area. Since the so-calculated depth limits correspond well with the actual depth distribution in the field, macrophyte depth distribution is concluded to be mostly determined by light conditions. Most macrophytes grow in very shallow areas up to 50 cm depth where also 70% of potential primary production takes place. Present light conditions do not support a further expansion of macrophyte distribution in the DZBC.     

Factors influencing macrophyte metrics in Estonian coastal lakes in the light of ecological status assessment

Macrophytes and factors affecting their distribution were studied in 19 coastal lakes of Estonia. The aim of the study was to determine the factors influencing the distribution of macrophytes in coastal lakes and to assess the suitability of valid macrophyte metrics. Our hypothesis was that in coastal lakes most of the macrophyte distribution patterns are caused by lake-specific variables. Morphological, physico-chemical and catchment area characteristics of the lakes varied greatly. Lakes were in different development stages—lakes nearest to the Baltic Sea were younger and more influenced by brackish water and the furthest lakes were older with more freshwater. All that variability was reflected in macrophyte parameters. Factor analysis of environmental indices divided them into three groups—catchment area, morphometric and water chemistry factors. The first factor may be considered as a pressure and the other two as lake-type-specific factors. Lake catchment area parameters had an influence on Bolboschoenus maritimus, Chara tomentosa and Typha latifolia abundance. Morphometric parameters had an influence on the depth distribution of macrophytes and water chemistry factors on the abundance of helophytes. Current indicator species showed more variability associated with lake-specific factors than with changes in status or the influence of pressures.     

Geographic variation in fitness‐related traits of the bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus along the Baltic Sea‐North Sea salinity gradient

In the course of the ongoing global intensification and diversification of human pressures, the study of variation patterns of biological traits along environmental gradients can provide relevant information on the performance of species under shifting conditions. The pronounced salinity gradient, co‐occurrence of multiple stressors, and accelerated rates of change make the Baltic Sea and its transition to North Sea a suitable region for this type of study. Focusing on the bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus, one of the main foundation species on hard‐bottoms of the Baltic Sea, we analyzed the phenotypic variation among populations occurring along 2,000 km of coasts subjected to salinities from 4 to >30 and a variety of other stressors. Morphological and biochemical traits, including palatability for grazers, were recorded at 20 stations along the Baltic Sea and four stations in the North Sea. We evaluated in a common modeling framework the relative contribution of multiple environmental drivers to the observed trait patterns. Salinity was the main and, in some cases, the only environmental driver of the geographic trait variation in F. vesiculosus. The decrease in salinity from North Sea to Baltic Sea stations was accompanied by a decline in thallus size, photosynthetic pigments, and energy storage compounds, and affected the interaction of the alga with herbivores and epibiota. For some traits, drivers that vary locally such as wave exposure, light availability or nutrient enrichment were also important. The strong genetic population structure in this macroalgae might play a role in the generation and maintenance of phenotypic patterns across geographic scales. In light of our results, the desalination process projected for the Baltic Sea could have detrimental impacts on F. vesiculosus in areas close to its tolerance limit, affecting ecosystem functions such as habitat formation, primary production, and food supply.     

Water–energy,land‐cover and heterogeneity drivers of the distribution of plant species richness in a mountain region of the European Alps

Aim To evaluate the relative importance of water–energy, land‐cover, environmental heterogeneity and spatial variables on the regional distribution of Red‐Listed and common vascular plant species richness. Location Trento Province (c. 6200 km²) on the southern border of the European Alps (Italy), subdivided regularly into 228 3′ × 5′ quadrants. Methods Data from a floristic inventory were separated into two subsets, representing Red‐Listed and common (i.e. all except Red‐Listed) plant species richness. Both subsets were separately related to water–energy, land‐cover and environmental heterogeneity variables. We simultaneously applied ordinary least squares regression with variation partitioning and hierarchical partitioning, attempting to identify the most important factors controlling species richness. We combined the analysis of environmental variables with a trend surface analysis and a spatial autocorrelation analysis. Results At the regional scale, plant species richness of both Red‐Listed and common species was primarily related to energy availability and land cover, whereas environmental heterogeneity had a lesser effect. The greatest number of species of both subsets was found in quadrants with the largest energy availability and the greatest degree of urbanization. These findings suggest that the elevation range within our study region imposes an energy‐driven control on the distribution of species richness, which resembles that of the broader latitude gradient. Overall, the two species subsets had similar trends concerning the relative importance of water–energy, land cover and environmental heterogeneity, showing a few differences regarding the selection of some predictors of secondary importance. The incorporation of spatial variables did not improve the explanatory power of the environmental models and the high original spatial autocorrelation in the response variables was reduced drastically by including the selected environmental variables. Main conclusions Water–energy and land cover showed significant pure effects in explaining plant species richness, indicating that climate and land cover should both be included as explanatory variables in modelling species richness in human‐affected landscapes. However, the high degree of shared variation between the two groups made the relative effects difficult to separate. The relatively low range of variation in the environmental heterogeneity variables within our sampling domain might have caused the low importance of this complex factor.     

Is the invasion of Prorocentrum minimum (Dinophyceae) related to the nitrogen enrichment of the Baltic Sea?

The abundance of the invasive, bloom-forming dinoflagellate Prorocentrum minimum (Pavillard) Schiller and triangular, oval, and oval-round cell shapes were examined relative to salinity, temperature, and nutrient concentrations at the selected sites in the Baltic Sea. Based on the multiple regression and multivariate statistical analysis, all cell shapes of P. minimum had highly similar distribution relative to these environmental parameters as well as chlorophyll-a, nitrite + nitrate, ammonium, total nitrogen, phosphate, total phosphorus, and silicate. The species was related positively to total nitrogen, and negatively to salinity, temperature, nitrite + nitrate, and silicate:total nitrogen ratio. The results suggest that P. minimum could well adapt to low salinity and temperature and occurred particularly in coastal waters, rich in total nitrogen relative to silicate or other inorganic nutrients. These results indicate that the recent invasion of P. minimum into the Baltic Sea could have been enhanced by the DON enrichment. The results also support the suggestion that P. minimum is one morphospecies with no distinct subtaxa.     

Modelling species distribution in complex environments: an evaluation of predictive ability and reliability in five shorebird species

Aim  Many wader populations around the world are declining as a consequence of habitat degradation or loss. It is therefore important to identify species-specific habitat demands accurately and to define the important factors explaining species distribution, in order to develop tools that can be used in conservation planning. The aim of this study is to create reliable, functional and ecologically interpretable predictive distribution models for five breeding wader species.
Location  The archipelago of SW Finland in the Baltic Sea.
Methods  We used multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) to create single-species and multiresponse distribution models based on 525 study islands and 12 abiotic and biotic environmental variables. Model evaluation was carried out on independent data not used in model building (100 + 116 islands). The models were tested for discrimination with receiver-operating characteristic statistics and for calibration with Millers calibration statistics (MCS).
Results  The single-species models for the turnstone ( Arenaria interpres ), redshank ( Tringa totanus ) and oystercatcher ( Haematopus ostralegus ) showed good predictive abilities, regarding both discrimination and calibration, when evaluated on independent data. The multiresponse models for the less prevalent species, common sandpiper ( Actitis hypoleucos ) and the common ringed plover ( Charadrius hiaticula ) had better discriminative abilities than the single-species models. The most influential predictor overall was occurrence of small larids. Exposure, area of forest and low and flat areas were also important, as well as shore habitats.
Main conclusions  We found that the ability of MARS to fit non-linear and multiresponse models makes it a useful method to quantitatively relate species occurrence to environmental characteristics of a complex environment.     

Modelling the occurrence of threatened plant species in taiga landscapes: methodological and ecological perspectives

Aim Understanding the spatial patterns of species distribution and predicting the occurrence of high biological diversity and rare species are central themes in biogeography and environmental conservation. The aim of this study was to model and scrutinize the relative contributions of climate, topography, geology and land‐cover factors to the distributions of threatened vascular plant species in taiga landscapes in northern Finland. Location North‐east Finland, northern Europe. Methods The study was performed using a data set of 28 plant species and environmental variables at a 25‐ha resolution. Four different stepwise selection algorithms [Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), adaptive backfitting, cross selection] with generalized additive models (GAMs) were fitted to identify the main environmental correlates for species occurrences. The accuracies of the distribution models were evaluated using fourfold cross‐validation based on the area under the curve (AUC) derived from receiver operating characteristic plots. The GAMs were tentatively extrapolated to the whole study area and species occurrence probability maps were produced using GIS techniques. The effect of spatial autocorrelation on the modelling results was also tested by including autocovariate terms in the GAMs. Results According to the AUC values, the model performance varied from fair to excellent. The AIC algorithm provided the highest mean performance (mean AUC = 0.889), whereas the lowest mean AUC (0.851) was obtained from BIC. Most of the variation in the distribution of threatened plant species was related to growing degree days, temperature of the coldest month, water balance, cover of mire and mean elevation. In general, climate was the most powerful explanatory variable group, followed by land cover, topography and geology. Inclusion of the autocovariate only slightly improved the performance of the models and had a minor effect on the importance of the environmental variables. Main conclusions The results confirm that the landscape‐scale distribution patterns of plant species can be modelled well on the basis of environmental parameters. A spatial grid system with several environmental variables derived from remote sensing and GIS data was found to produce useful data sets, which can be employed when predicting species distribution patterns over extensive areas. Landscape‐scale maps showing the predicted occurrences of individual or multiple threatened plant species may provide a useful basis for focusing field surveys and allocating conservation efforts.