Dynamic energy budget theory and population ecology: lessons from Daphnia

Dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory offers a perspective on population ecology whose starting point is energy utilization by, and homeostasis within, individual organisms. It is natural to ask what it adds to the existing large body of individual-based ecological theory. We approach this question pragmatically--through detailed study of the individual physiology and population dynamics of the zooplankter Daphnia and its algal food. Standard DEB theory uses several state variables to characterize the state of an individual organism, thereby making the transition to population dynamics technically challenging, while ecologists demand maximally simple models that can be used in multi-scale modelling. We demonstrate that simpler representations of individual bioenergetics with a single state variable (size), and two life stages (juveniles and adults), contain sufficient detail on mass and energy budgets to yield good fits to data on growth, maturation and reproduction of individual Daphnia in response to food availability. The same simple representations of bioenergetics describe some features of Daphnia mortality, including enhanced mortality at low food that is not explicitly incorporated in the standard DEB model. Size-structured, population models incorporating this additional mortality component resolve some long-standing questions on stability and population cycles in Daphnia. We conclude that a bioenergetic model serving solely as a 'regression' connecting organismal performance to the history of its environment can rest on simpler representations than those of standard DEB. But there are associated costs with such pragmatism, notably loss of connection to theory describing interspecific variation in physiological rates. The latter is an important issue, as the type of detailed study reported here can only be performed for a handful of species.     

Approximation of a physiologically structured population model with seasonal reproduction by a stage-structured biomass model

Seasonal reproduction causes, due to the periodic inflow of young small individuals in the population, seasonal fluctuations in population size distributions. Seasonal reproduction furthermore implies that the energetic body condition of reproducing individuals varies over time. Through these mechanisms, seasonal reproduction likely affects population and community dynamics. While seasonal reproduction is often incorporated in population models using discrete time equations, these are not suitable for size-structured populations in which individuals grow continuously between reproductive events. Size-structured population models that consider seasonal reproduction, an explicit growing season and individual-level energetic processes exist in the form of physiologically structured population models. However, modeling large species ensembles with these models is virtually impossible. In this study, we therefore develop a simpler model framework by approximating a cohort-based size-structured population model with seasonal reproduction to a stage-structured biomass model of four ODEs. The model translates individual-level assumptions about food ingestion, bioenergetics, growth, investment in reproduction, storage of reproductive energy, and seasonal reproduction in stage-based processes at the population level. Numerical analysis of the two models shows similar values for the average biomass of juveniles, adults, and resource unless large-amplitude cycles with a single cohort dominating the population occur. The model framework can be extended by adding species or multiple juvenile and/or adult stages. This opens up possibilities to investigate population dynamics of interacting species while incorporating ontogenetic development and complex life histories in combination with seasonal reproduction.     

Energy storage and the evolution of population dynamics

We explore the mutual dependence of life history evolution and population dynamics by modeling a structured rotifer population that preys on a dynamic food supply. We focus on the ecological role of energy storage. A physiologically based submodel describes how individual predators allocate assimilated energy among growth, reproduction, and storage. We use invasibility analyses to predict evolutionary stable strategies for energy allocation. Various proxy measures of fitness based on measurable biological quantities, such as average population size or average per-capita fecundity, fail to predict evolutionary stable strategies. The predicted strategies indicate that selection strongly favors storage allocation for juveniles, but only for adults when prey densities are high. With the evolution of energy storage, population dynamics can shift from aperiodic to stable cycles without any need to invoke group selection.     

sOAR: a tool for modelling optimal animal life‐history strategies in cyclic environments

Periodic environments determine the life cycle of many animals across the globe and the timing of important life history events, such as reproduction and migration. These adaptive behavioural strategies are complex and can only be fully understood (and predicted) within the framework of natural selection in which species adopt evolutionary stable strategies. We present sOAR, a powerful and user‐friendly implementation of the well‐established framework of optimal annual routine modelling. It allows determining optimal animal life history strategies under cyclic environmental conditions using stochastic dynamic programming. It further includes the simulation of population dynamics under the optimal strategy. sOAR provides an important tool for theoretical studies on the behavioural and evolutionary ecology of animals. It is especially suited for studying bird migration. In particular, we integrated options to differentiate between costs of active and passive flight into the optimal annual routine modelling framework, as well as options to consider periodic wind conditions affecting flight energetics. We provide an illustrative example of sOAR where food supply in the wintering habitat of migratory birds significantly alters the optimal timing of migration. sOAR helps improving our understanding of how complex behaviours evolve and how behavioural decisions are constrained by internal and external factors experienced by the animal. Such knowledge is crucial for anticipating potential species’ response to global environmental change.     

Environmental fluctuations restrict eco-evolutionary dynamics in predator–prey system

Environmental fluctuations, species interactions and rapid evolution are all predicted to affect community structure and their temporal dynamics. Although the effects of the abiotic environment and prey evolution on ecological community dynamics have been studied separately, these factors can also have interactive effects. Here we used bacteria–ciliate microcosm experiments to test for eco-evolutionary dynamics in fluctuating environments. Specifically, we followed population dynamics and a prey defence trait over time when populations were exposed to regular changes of bottom-up or top-down stressors, or combinations of these. We found that the rate of evolution of a defence trait was significantly lower in fluctuating compared with stable environments, and that the defence trait evolved to lower levels when two environmental stressors changed recurrently. The latter suggests that top-down and bottom-up changes can have additive effects constraining evolutionary response within populations. The differences in evolutionary trajectories are explained by fluctuations in population sizes of the prey and the predator, which continuously alter the supply of mutations in the prey and strength of selection through predation. Thus, it may be necessary to adopt an eco-evolutionary perspective on studies concerning the evolution of traits mediating species interactions.     

具脉冲收获与脉冲单边扩散的单种群动力学模型研究

建立了一类具脉冲收获与脉冲单边扩散在不同固定脉冲时刻的单种群动力学模型利用离散动力系统频闪映射理论,得到了脉冲收获的阈值.该结论说明只要收获量不超过其阈值通过扩散则种群可以保持持续生存.     

Conservation and conflict between endangered desert fishes

Conservation of naturally sympatric endangered species requires unique considerations. While impacts of invasive species garner much attention, interactions between endangered species must also be managed. The endangered Leon Springs pupfish, Cyprinodon bovinus, has suffered a population decline due to decreasing natural habitat. As breeding habitat is lost, C. bovinus is also adversely affected by the sympatric, endangered Pecos gambusia, Gambusia nobilis. Here, we document interactions between these species, finding significantly more G. nobilis accumulated at pupfish spawning events than randomly distributed on breeding grounds in the absence of spawning. As a known egg predator, our results suggest that G. nobilis presence at spawnings may further decrease pupfish numbers while also altering the evolutionary dynamics of C. bovinus breeding tactics. Habitat restoration may decrease Gambusia concentrations or influence C. bovinus breeding behaviour and increase the number of territorial males resulting in viable population sizes for both critically endangered fishes.     

Contrasting patterns of density‐dependent selection at different life stages can create more than one fast–slow axis of life‐history variation

There has been much recent research interest in the existence of a major axis of life‐history variation along a fast–slow continuum within almost all major taxonomic groups. Eco‐evolutionary models of density‐dependent selection provide a general explanation for such observations of interspecific variation in the "pace of life." One issue, however, is that some large‐bodied long‐lived “slow” species (e.g., trees and large fish) often show an explosive “fast” type of reproduction with many small offspring, and species with “fast” adult life stages can have comparatively “slow” offspring life stages (e.g., mayflies). We attempt to explain such life‐history evolution using the same eco‐evolutionary modeling approach but with two life stages, separating adult reproductive strategies from offspring survival strategies. When the population dynamics in the two life stages are closely linked and affect each other, density‐dependent selection occurs in parallel on both reproduction and survival, producing the usual one‐dimensional fast–slow continuum (e.g., houseflies to blue whales). However, strong density dependence at either the adult reproduction or offspring survival life stage creates quasi‐independent population dynamics, allowing fast‐type reproduction alongside slow‐type survival (e.g., trees and large fish), or the perhaps rarer slow‐type reproduction alongside fast‐type survival (e.g., mayflies—short‐lived adults producing few long‐lived offspring). Therefore, most types of species life histories in nature can potentially be explained via the eco‐evolutionary consequences of density‐dependent selection given the possible separation of demographic effects at different life stages.     

Persistence of the emerging pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis outside the amphibian host greatly increases the probability of host extinction

Pathogens do not normally drive their hosts to extinction; however, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which causes amphibian chytridiomycosis, has been able to do so. Theory predicts that extinction can be caused by long-lived or saprobic free-living stages. The hypothesis that such a stage occurs in B. dendrobatidis is supported by the recent discovery of an apparently encysted form of the pathogen. To investigate the effect of a free-living stage of B. dendrobatidis on host population dynamics, a mathematical model was developed to describe the introduction of chytridiomycosis into a breeding population of Bufo bufo, parametrized from laboratory infection and transmission experiments. The model predicted that the longer that B. dendrobatidis was able to persist in water, either due to an increased zoospore lifespan or saprobic reproduction, the more likely it was that it could cause local B. bufo extinction (defined as decrease below a threshold level). Establishment of endemic B. dendrobatidis infection in B. bufo, with severe host population depression, was also possible, in agreement with field observations. Although this model is able to predict clear trends, more precise predictions will only be possible when the life history of B. dendrobatidis, including free-living stages of the life cycle, is better understood.     

Eco‐evolutionary feedback promotes Red Queen dynamics and selects for sex in predator populations

Although numerous hypotheses exist to explain the overwhelming presence of sexual reproduction across the tree of life, we still cannot explain its prevalence when considering all inherent costs involved. The Red Queen hypothesis states that sex is maintained because it can create novel genotypes with a selective advantage. This occurs when the interactions between species induce frequent environmental change. Here, we investigate whether coevolution and eco‐evolutionary feedback dynamics in a predator‐prey system allows for indirect selection and maintenance of sexual reproduction in the predator. Combining models and chemostat experiments of a rotifer‐algae system we show a continuous feedback between population and trait change along with recurrent shifts from selection by predation and competition for a limited resource. We found that a high propensity for sex was indirectly selected and was maintained in rotifer populations within environments containing these eco‐evolutionary dynamics; whereas within environments under constant conditions, predators evolved rapidly to lower levels of sex. Thus, our results indicate that the influence of eco‐evolutionary feedback dynamics on the overall evolutionary change has been underestimated.     

Developmental plasticity as a cohesive evolutionary process between sympatric alternate-year insect cohorts

Many species, particularly insects, pass through a series of distinct phases during their life history, with the developmental timing directed towards appropriate resources. Any factor that creates variation in developmental timing may partition a population into discrete populations-or 'cohorts'. Where there is continued failure to recruit outside the natal cohort then alternate cohorts will have their own internal dynamics, eventually leading to independent demographic and evolutionary trajectories. By contrast, continued variation in development rates within a cohort-cohort splitting-may homogenise otherwise independent demographic units. Using a panel of 14 microsatellite loci, we quantify the genetic signature of apparent demographic isolation between coexisting, but alternate, semivoltine cohorts of the damselfly Coenagrion mercuriale at locations that span its distribution in the UK. We find consistently low levels of genetic divergence between sympatric cohorts of C. mercuriale, indicative of developmental plasticity during the larval stage (unregulated development) whereby some individuals complete their development outside the predominant 2-year (semivoltine) period. Thus, individuals that alter their developmental rate successfully recruit to a different cohort. Despite maintaining contrasting population sizes, gene flow between alternate cohorts broadly is sufficient to place them on a similar evolutionary trajectory and also buffers against loss of genetic diversity. Such flexible larval development permits a response to local conditions and may facilitate response to environmental change.     

Thyroid hormone responsive QTL and the evolution of paedomorphic salamanders

The transformation of ancestral phenotypes into novel traits is poorly understood for many examples of evolutionary novelty. Ancestrally, salamanders have a biphasic life cycle with an aquatic larval stage, a brief and pronounced metamorphosis, followed by a terrestrial adult stage. Repeatedly during evolution, metamorphic timing has been delayed to exploit growth-permissive environments, resulting in paedomorphic salamanders that retain larval traits as adults. We used thyroid hormone (TH) to rescue metamorphic phenotypes in paedomorphic salamanders and then identified quantitative trait loci (QTL) for life history traits that are associated with amphibian life cycle evolution: metamorphic timing and adult body size. We demonstrate that paedomorphic tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum complex) carry alleles at three moderate effect QTL (met1–3) that vary in responsiveness to TH and additively affect metamorphic timing. Salamanders that delay metamorphosis attain significantly larger body sizes as adults and met2 explains a significant portion of this variation. Thus, substitution of alleles at TH-responsive loci suggests an adaptive pleiotropic basis for two key life-history traits in amphibians: body size and metamorphic timing. Our study demonstrates a likely pathway for the evolution of novel paedomorphic species from metamorphic ancestors via selection of TH-response alleles that delay metamorphic timing and increase adult body size.     

Latitudinal influence on gametogenesis and host–parasite ecology in a marine bivalve model

Reproduction and parasites have significant impacts on marine animal populations globally. This study aimed to investigate the associative effects of host reproduction and a host–parasite interplay on a marine bivalve, along a geographic gradient of latitude. Cockles Cerastoderma edule were sampled from five European sites (54°N to 40°N), between April 2018 and October 2019. A histological survey provided data on trematode (metacercaria and sporocyst life stages), prevalence, and cockle stage of gametogenesis to assess the influence of a latitudinal gradient on both interplays. Sex ratios at the northernmost sites were skewed toward females, and spawning size was reduced at the lower latitudes. Trematode infection did not follow a latitudinal gradient. Localized site‐related drivers, namely seawater temperature, varied spatially, having an impact on cockle–trematode interactions. Spawning was related to elevated temperatures at all sites. Prolonged spawning occurred at southern latitudes, where seawater temperatures were warmer. Trematode prevalence and the impact of trematodes on gametogenesis were found to be spatially variable, but not latitudinally. Therefore, it is not possible to determine the likelihood of boom and bust events in cockles, based on the latitudinal location of a population. In terms of sublethal impacts, it appeared that energy was allocated to reproduction rather than somatic growth in southern populations, with less energy allocated to reproduction in the larger, northern cockles. The demonstrated spatial trend of energy allocation indicates the potential of a temporal trend of reduced cockle growth at northern sites, as a result of warming sea temperatures. This awareness of the spatially varying drivers of populations is crucial considering the potential for these drivers/inhibitors to be exacerbated in a changing marine environment.     

Population dynamics and harvesting of semelparous species with phenotypic and genotypic variability in reproductive age

We study the evolution of polymorphic life histories in anadromous semelparous salmon and the effects of harvesting. We derive dynamic phenotypic and genetic ESS models for describing the evolutionary dynamics. We show in our deterministic analysis that polymorphisms are not possible in a panmictic random mating population. Instead, genetic or behavioral polymorphisms may be observed in populations with assortative mating systems. Positive assortative mating may be supported and generated by behavioral and phenotypic traits like male mate choice, spawning ground selection by phenotype, or within-river homing-migration-distance by size. In the case of an evolutionarily stable dimorphism, the ESS is characterized by a reproductive ideal free distribution such that at an equilibrium the individuals are indifferent from the fitness point of view between the two life histories of early and late reproduction. Different strategy models - that is, phenotypic and genetic ESS models - yield identical behavioral predictions and, consequently, genetics does not seem to play an important role in the present model. An evolutionary response to increased fishing mortality is obvious and may have resource management implications. High sea fishing mortalities drive the populations toward early spawning. Thus it is possible that unselective harvesting at sea may eliminate, depending on the biological system, behavioral polymorphisms or genetic heterozygozity and drive the population to a monomorphic one. If within-river homing migration distances depend on the size of fish, unselective harvesting at sea, or selective harvesting of spawning runs in rivers, may reduce local population sizes on spawning grounds high up rivers. Finally, harvesting in a population may cause a switch in a dominant life-history strategy in a population so that anticipated sustainable yields cannot be realized in practice.     

Evolutionary Branching in a Finite Population: Deterministic Branching vs. Stochastic Branching

Adaptive dynamics formalism demonstrates that, in a constant environment, a continuous trait may first converge to a singular point followed by spontaneous transition from a unimodal trait distribution into a bimodal one, which is called “evolutionary branching.” Most previous analyses of evolutionary branching have been conducted in an infinitely large population. Here, we study the effect of stochasticity caused by the finiteness of the population size on evolutionary branching. By analyzing the dynamics of trait variance, we obtain the condition for evolutionary branching as the one under which trait variance explodes. Genetic drift reduces the trait variance and causes stochastic fluctuation. In a very small population, evolutionary branching does not occur. In larger populations, evolutionary branching may occur, but it occurs in two different manners: in deterministic branching, branching occurs quickly when the population reaches the singular point, while in stochastic branching, the population stays at singularity for a period before branching out. The conditions for these cases and the mean branching-out times are calculated in terms of population size, mutational effects, and selection intensity and are confirmed by direct computer simulations of the individual-based model.     

Evolutionary game dynamics with impulsive effects

The jumps in population size due to the occurrence of an unfavorable physical environment (e.g. the effects of periodic climate disaster on the population size), or due to the intrinsic physiological and reproductive mechanisms of the population (e.g. the seasonal reproduction of most animal populations), can be called impulsive perturbations. A two-phenotype evolutionary game dynamics with impulsive effects is investigated. The main goal is to show how the evolutionary game dynamics is affected by the impulsive perturbations. The results show that the impulsive perturbations not only result in periodic behavior, but also it is possible that an ESS strategy based on the traditional concept of evolutionary stability can be replaced successfully by a non-ESS strategy.     

Variable individual consistency in timing and destination of winter migrating fish

Migration is an important event in the life history of many animals, but there is considerable variation within populations in the timing and final destination. Such differential migration at the population level can be strongly determined by individuals showing different consistencies in migratory traits. By tagging individual cyprinid fish with uniquely coded electronic tags, and recording their winter migrations from lakes to streams for 6 consecutive years, we obtained highly detailed long-term information on the differential migration patterns of individuals. We found that individual migrants showed consistent site fidelities for over-wintering streams over multiple migratory seasons and that they were also consistent in their seasonal timing of migration. Our data also suggest that consistency itself can be considered as an individual trait, with migrants that exhibit consistent site fidelity also showing consistency in migratory timing. The finding of a mixture of both consistent and inconsistent individuals within a population furthers our understanding of intrapopulation variability in migration strategies, and we hypothesize that environmental variation can maintain such different strategies.     

Time to Evolve? Potential Evolutionary Responses of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon to Climate Change and Effects on Persistence

Evolutionary adaptation affects demographic resilience to climate change but few studies have attempted to project changes in selective pressures or quantify impacts of trait responses on population dynamics and extinction risk. We used a novel individual-based model to explore potential evolutionary changes in migration timing and the consequences for population persistence in sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka in the Fraser River, Canada, under scenarios of future climate warming. Adult sockeye salmon are highly sensitive to increases in water temperature during their arduous upriver migration, raising concerns about the fate of these ecologically, culturally, and commercially important fish in a warmer future. Our results suggest that evolution of upriver migration timing could allow these salmon to avoid increasingly frequent stressful temperatures, with the odds of population persistence increasing in proportion to the trait heritability and phenotypic variance. With a simulated 2°C increase in average summer river temperatures by 2100, adult migration timing from the ocean to the river advanced by ～10 days when the heritability was 0.5, while the risk of quasi-extinction was only 17% of that faced by populations with zero evolutionary potential (i.e., heritability fixed at zero). The rates of evolution required to maintain persistence under simulated scenarios of moderate to rapid warming are plausible based on estimated heritabilities and rates of microevolution of timing traits in salmon and related species, although further empirical work is required to assess potential genetic and ecophysiological constraints on phenological adaptation. These results highlight the benefits to salmon management of maintaining evolutionary potential within populations, in addition to conserving key habitats and minimizing additional stressors where possible, as a means to build resilience to ongoing climate change. More generally, they demonstrate the importance and feasibility of considering evolutionary processes, in addition to ecology and demography, when projecting population responses to environmental change.     

Selection and evolutionary potential of spring arrival phenology in males and females of a migratory songbird

The timing of annual life‐history events affects survival and reproduction of all organisms. A changing environment can perturb phenological adaptations and an important question is if populations can evolve fast enough to track the environmental changes. Yet, little is known about selection and evolutionary potential of traits determining the timing of crucial annual events. Migratory species, which travel between different climatic regions, are particularly affected by global environmental changes. To increase our understanding of evolutionary potential and selection of timing traits, we investigated the quantitative genetics of arrival date at the breeding ground using a multigenerational pedigree of a natural great reed warbler (Acrocephalus arundinaceus) population. We found significant heritability of 16.4% for arrival date and directional selection for earlier arrival in both sexes acting through reproductive success, but not through lifespan. Mean arrival date advanced with 6 days over 20 years, which is in exact accordance with our predicted evolutionary response based on the breeder's equation. However, this phenotypic change is unlikely to be caused by microevolution, because selection seems mainly to act on the nongenetic component of the trait. Furthermore, demographical changes could also not account for the advancing arrival date. Instead, a strong correlation between spring temperatures and population mean arrival date suggests that phenotypic plasticity best explains the advancement of arrival date in our study population. Our study dissects the evolutionary and environmental forces that shape timing traits and thereby increases knowledge of how populations cope with rapidly changing environments.     

Benefits of extra food to reproduction depend on maternal condition

The amount of food resources available to upper‐level consumers can show marked variations in time and space, potentially resulting in food limitation. The availability of food resources during reproduction is a key factor modulating variation in reproductive success and life‐history tradeoffs, including patterns of resource allocation to reproduction versus self‐maintenance, ultimately impacting on population dynamics. Food provisioning experiments constitute a popular approach to assess the importance of food limitation for vertebrate reproduction. In this study of a mesopredatory avian species, the lesser kestrel Falco naumanni, we provided extra food to breeding individuals from egg laying to early nestling rearing. Extra food did not significantly affect adult body condition or oxidative status. However, it increased the allocation of resources to flight feathers moult and induced females to lay heavier eggs. Concomitantly, it alleviated the costs of laying heavier eggs for females in poor body condition, and reduced their chances of nest desertion (implying complete reproductive failure). Extra food provisioning improved early nestling growth (body mass and feather development). Moreover, extra food significantly reduced the negative effects of ectoparasites on nestling body mass, while fostering forearm (a flight apparatus trait) growth among highly parasitized nestlings. Our results indicate that lesser kestrels invested the extra food mainly to improve current reproduction, suggesting that population growth in this species can be limited by food availability during the breeding season. In addition, extra food provisioning reduced the costs of the moult–breeding overlap and affected early growth tradeoffs by mitigating detrimental ectoparasite effects on growth and enhancing development of the flight apparatus with high levels of parasitism. Importantly, our findings suggest that maternal condition is a major trait modulating the benefits of extra food to reproduction, whereby such benefits mostly accrue to low‐quality females with poor body condition.