Mink farms predict Aleutian disease exposure in wild American mink

Background

Infectious diseases can often be of conservation importance for wildlife. Spillover, when infectious disease is transmitted from a reservoir population to sympatric wildlife, is a particular threat. American mink (Neovison vison) populations across Canada appear to be declining, but factors thus far explored have not fully explained this population trend. Recent research has shown, however, that domestic mink are escaping from mink farms and hybridizing with wild mink. Domestic mink may also be spreading Aleutian disease (AD), a highly pathogenic parvovirus prevalent in mink farms, to wild mink populations. AD could reduce fitness in wild mink by reducing both the productivity of adult females and survivorship of juveniles and adults.

Methods

To assess the seroprevalence and geographic distribution of AD infection in free-ranging mink in relation to the presence of mink farms, we conducted both a large-scale serological survey, across the province of Ontario, and a smaller-scale survey, at the interface between a mink farm and wild mink.

Conclusions/Significance

Antibodies to AD were detected in 29% of mink (60 of 208 mink sampled); however, seroprevalence was significantly higher in areas closer to mink farms than in areas farther from farms, at both large and small spatial scales. Our results indicate that mink farms act as sources of AD transmission to the wild. As such, it is likely that wild mink across North America may be experiencing increased exposure to AD, via disease transmission from mink farms, which may be affecting wild mink demographics across their range. In light of declining mink populations, high AD seroprevalence within some mink farms, and the large number of mink farms situated across North America, improved biosecurity measures on farms are warranted to prevent continued disease transmission at the interface between mink farms and wild mink populations.     

Bias Due to Sample Selection in Propensity Score Matching for a Supportive Housing Program Evaluation in New York City

Objectives

Little is known about influences of sample selection on estimation in propensity score matching. The purpose of the study was to assess potential selection bias using one-to-one greedy matching versus optimal full matching as part of an evaluation of supportive housing in New York City (NYC).

Study Design and Settings

Data came from administrative data for 2 groups of applicants who were eligible for an NYC supportive housing program in 2007–09, including chronically homeless adults with a substance use disorder and young adults aging out of foster care. We evaluated the 2 matching methods in their ability to balance covariates and represent the original population, and in how those methods affected outcomes related to Medicaid expenditures.

Results

In the population with a substance use disorder, only optimal full matching performed well in balancing covariates, whereas both methods created representative populations. In the young adult population, both methods balanced covariates effectively, but only optimal full matching created representative populations. In the young adult population, the impact of the program on Medicaid expenditures was attenuated when one-to-one greedy matching was used, compared with optimal full matching.

Conclusion

Given covariate balancing with both methods, attenuated program impacts in the young adult population indicated that one-to-one greedy matching introduced selection bias.     

Integrated Population Modeling of Black Bears in Minnesota: Implications for Monitoring and Management

Background

Wildlife populations are difficult to monitor directly because of costs and logistical challenges associated with collecting informative abundance data from live animals. By contrast, data on harvested individuals (e.g., age and sex) are often readily available. Increasingly, integrated population models are used for natural resource management because they synthesize various relevant data into a single analysis.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We investigated the performance of integrated population models applied to black bears (Ursus americanus) in Minnesota, USA. Models were constructed using sex-specific age-at-harvest matrices (1980–2008), data on hunting effort and natural food supplies (which affects hunting success), and statewide mark–recapture estimates of abundance (1991, 1997, 2002). We compared this approach to Downing reconstruction, a commonly used population monitoring method that utilizes only age-at-harvest data. We first conducted a large-scale simulation study, in which our integrated models provided more accurate estimates of population trends than did Downing reconstruction. Estimates of trends were robust to various forms of model misspecification, including incorrectly specified cub and yearling survival parameters, age-related reporting biases in harvest data, and unmodeled temporal variability in survival and harvest rates. When applied to actual data on Minnesota black bears, the model predicted that harvest rates were negatively correlated with food availability and positively correlated with hunting effort, consistent with independent telemetry data. With no direct data on fertility, the model also correctly predicted 2-point cycles in cub production. Model-derived estimates of abundance for the most recent years provided a reasonable match to an empirical population estimate obtained after modeling efforts were completed.

Conclusions/Significance

Integrated population modeling provided a reasonable framework for synthesizing age-at-harvest data, periodic large-scale abundance estimates, and measured covariates thought to affect harvest rates of black bears in Minnesota. Collection and analysis of these data appear to form the basis of a robust and viable population monitoring program.     

Testing the Goodness of Supplementary Feeding to Enhance Population Viability in an Endangered Vulture

Background

Human-predator conflicts are directly or indirectly threatening many species with extinction. Thus, biologists are urged to find simple solutions to complex situations while avoiding unforeseen conservation outcomes. The provision of supplementary food at artificial feeding sites (AFS) is frequently used in the conservation of scavenger bird populations currently suffering from indirect poisoning, although no scientific studies on its effectiveness have been conducted.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used a long-term data set of 95 individually marked birds from the largest European core of the endangered bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) to test the long-term effects of specific AFS for bearded vultures on their survival rates (by CMR models) and population dynamics (by Monte Carlo simulations) in an area where fatalities derived from illegal poisoning and the use of other toxics like veterinary drugs have increased over the last several years. Our data support the positive relationship between the use of AFS and survival. However, contrary to theoretical predictions (e.g. high and more stable adult survival among long-lived species), the use of AFS increased only survival of pre-adults. Moreover, AFS buffered the effects of illegal poisoning on this age-class, while adult survival decreased over years. Our simulations predicted a maximum value of extinction probability over a time horizon of 50 years. Population projections run with survival rates expected in scenarios without poisoning predicted the situation of least conservation concern, while including only AFS can maintain a large floater surplus that may delay population decline but fails to reduce poisoning risk among adults.

Conclusions/Significance

Although AFS are not effective to save bearded vultures from an expected population decline, they delay population extinction and can be a useful tool for prolonging population viability while combating illegal and indirect poisoning. The eradication of different sources of poisoning is of top priority to ensure the long-term viability of this and many other species.     

Contact with domestic dogs increases pathogen exposure in endangered African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus)

Background

Infectious diseases have contributed to the decline and local extinction of several wildlife species, including African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus). Mitigating such disease threats is challenging, partly because uncertainty about disease dynamics makes it difficult to identify the best management approaches. Serious impacts on susceptible populations most frequently occur when generalist pathogens are maintained within populations of abundant (often domestic) “reservoir” hosts, and spill over into less abundant host species. If this is the case, disease control directed at the reservoir host might be most appropriate. However, pathogen transmission within threatened host populations may also be important, and may not be controllable by managing another host species.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We investigated interspecific and intraspecific transmission routes, by comparing African wild dogs'' exposure to six canine pathogens with behavioural measures of their opportunities for contact with domestic dogs and with other wild dogs. Domestic dog contact was associated with exposure to canine parvovirus, Ehrlichia canis, Neospora caninum and perhaps rabies virus, but not with exposure to canine distemper virus or canine coronavirus. Contact with other wild dogs appeared not to increase the risk of exposure to any of the pathogens.

Conclusions/Significance

These findings, combined with other data, suggest that management directed at domestic dogs might help to protect wild dog populations from rabies virus, but not from canine distemper virus. However, further analyses are needed to determine the management approaches – including no intervention – which are most appropriate for each pathogen.     

Effective pollinators of Asian sacred lotus (Nelumbo nucifera): contemporary pollinators may not reflect the historical pollination syndrome

Background and Aims

If stabilizing selection by pollinators is a prerequisite for pollinator-mediated floral evolution, spatiotemporal variation in the pollinator assemblage may confuse the plant–pollinator interaction in a given species. Here, effective pollinators in a living fossil plant Nelumbo nucifera (Nelumbonaceae) were examined to test whether beetles are major pollinators as predicted by its pollination syndrome.

Methods

Pollinators of N. nucifera were investigated in 11 wild populations and one cultivated population, and pollination experiments were conducted to examine the pollinating role of two major pollinators (bees and beetles) in three populations.

Key Results

Lotus flowers are protogynous, bowl shaped and without nectar. The fragrant flowers can be self-heating during anthesis and produce around 1 million pollen grains per flower. It was found that bees and flies were the most frequent flower visitors in wild populations, contributing on average 87·9 and 49·4 % of seed set in Mishan and Lantian, respectively. Beetles were only found in one wild population and in the cultivated population, but the pollinator exclusion experiments showed that beetles were effective pollinators of Asian sacred lotus.

Conclusions

This study indicated that in their pollinating role, beetles, probable pollinators for this thermoregulating plant, had been replaced by some generalist insects in the wild. This finding implies that contemporary pollinators may not reflect the pollination syndrome.     

Prevalence of Hypertension in Indian Tribes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

Introduction

In India there is an increasing trend in hypertension prevalence among the general population. Studies have shown that tribal populations in India are also experiencing this burden.

Objective

The aim was to estimate the pooled prevalence of primary hypertension among adult tribal populations of India.

Methods

A systematic search was conducted in MEDLINE, IndMed, Web of Science, Google Scholar and major journals for studies published between 1981 and 2011. Two authors independently reviewed the studies, did quality assessment and extracted data in pre-coded spread-sheets. Pooled estimates of prevalence of hypertension were calculated using DerSimonian-Laird random effects model. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses and meta-regression were performed.

Results

Twenty studies or 53 subpopulations with 64 674 subjects were included in final review. The pooled estimate of hypertension prevalence was 16.1% (95% CI: 13.5, 19.2). There was significant heterogeneity among the studies (I² = 99% and Q = 4624.0, df  = 53, p<0.001). Subgroup analyses showed that year of study, acculturation status, special features, and BP measurement techniques significantly influenced prevalence, but after meta-regression analyses, ‘decade of study’ remained the only covariate that significantly and independently influenced prevalence (R² = 0.57, Q = 119.2, df  = 49, p value <0.001).

Conclusion

An increasing trend was found in the prevalence of hypertension in adult tribal populations across three decades. Although acculturation was probably the underlying agent that caused this increase, other unmeasured factors that need further research were also important. Concerned policy makers should focus on the changing health needs of tribal communities.     

Rapid Antigen Group A Streptococcus Test to Diagnose Pharyngitis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Pharyngitis management guidelines include estimates of the test characteristics of rapid antigen streptococcus tests (RAST) using a non-systematic approach.

Objective

To examine the sensitivity and specificity, and sources of variability, of RAST for diagnosing group A streptococcal (GAS) pharyngitis.

Data Sources

MEDLINE, Cochrane Reviews, Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, Scopus, SciELO, CINAHL, guidelines, 2000–2012.

Study Selection

Culture as reference standard, all languages.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Study characteristics, quality.

Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s)

Sensitivity, specificity.

Results

We included 59 studies encompassing 55,766 patients. Forty three studies (18,464 patients) fulfilled the higher quality definition (at least 50 patients, prospective data collection, and no significant biases) and 16 (35,634 patients) did not. For the higher quality immunochromatographic methods in children (10,325 patients), heterogeneity was high for sensitivity (inconsistency [I²] 88%) and specificity (I² 86%). For enzyme immunoassay in children (342 patients), the pooled sensitivity was 86% (95% CI, 79–92%) and the pooled specificity was 92% (95% CI, 88–95%). For the higher quality immunochromatographic methods in the adult population (1,216 patients), the pooled sensitivity was 91% (95% CI, 87 to 94%) and the pooled specificity was 93% (95% CI, 92 to 95%); however, heterogeneity was modest for sensitivity (I² 61%) and specificity (I² 72%). For enzyme immunoassay in the adult population (333 patients), the pooled sensitivity was 86% (95% CI, 81–91%) and the pooled specificity was 97% (95% CI, 96 to 99%); however, heterogeneity was high for sensitivity and specificity (both, I² 88%).

Conclusions

RAST immunochromatographic methods appear to be very sensitive and highly specific to diagnose group A streptococcal pharyngitis among adults but not in children. We could not identify sources of variability among higher quality studies. The present systematic review provides the best evidence for the wide range of sensitivity included in current guidelines.     

Interpopulation variation in contour feather structure is environmentally determined in great tits

Background

The plumage of birds is important for flying, insulation and social communication. Contour feathers cover most of the avian body and among other functions they provide a critical insulation layer against heat loss. Feather structure and composition are known to vary among individuals, which in turn determines variation in the insulation properties of the feather. However, the extent and the proximate mechanisms underlying this variation remain unexplored.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We analyzed contour feather structure from two different great tit populations adapted to different winter regimes, one northern population in Oulu (Finland) and one southern population in Lund (Sweden). Great tits from the two populations differed significantly in feather structure. Birds from the northern population had a denser plumage but consisting of shorter feathers with a smaller proportion containing plumulaceous barbs, compared with conspecifics from the southern population. However, differences disappeared when birds originating from the two populations were raised and moulted in identical conditions in a common-garden experiment located in Oulu, under ad libitum nutritional conditions. All birds raised in the aviaries, including adult foster parents moulting in the same captive conditions, developed a similar feather structure. These feathers were different from that of wild birds in Oulu but similar to wild birds in Lund, the latter moulting in more benign conditions than those of Oulu.

Conclusions/Significance

Wild populations exposed to different conditions develop contour feather differences either due to plastic responses or constraints. Environmental conditions, such as nutrient availability during feather growth play a crucial role in determining such differences in plumage structure among populations.     

The Prevalence of Primary Angle Closure Glaucoma in Adult Asians: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Primary angle closure glaucoma (PACG) is higher in Asians than Europeans and Africans, with over 80% of PACG worldwide in Asia. Previous estimates of PACG were based largely on early studies, mostly using inappropriate case definitions. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the prevalence of PACG in adult Asian populations and to quantify its association with age, gender, and region.

Methods

All primary reports of population-based studies that reported the prevalence of PACG in adult Asian populations were identified. PACG case definition was compatible with the ISGEO definition. Twenty-nine population-based studies were included. The overall pooled prevalence estimates were calculated using a random effect model, and ethnicity-, age- and gender-specific pooled prevalence estimates were also calculated.

Results

The overall pooled prevalence of PACG in those of adult Asians was 0.75% (95% CI, 0.58, 0.96). Ethnicity-specific pooled prevalence estimates were 0.97% (0.22, 4.27) in Middle East group, 0.66% (0.23, 1.86) in South East Asia group, 0.46% (0.32, 0.64) in India group, 1.10% (0.85, 1.44) in China group, and 1.19% (0.35, 3.98) in Japan group, respectively. Age-specific prevalence was 0.21% (0.12, 0.37) for those 40–49 years, 0.54% (0.34, 0.85) for those 50–59 years, 1.26% (0.93, 1.71) for those 60–69 years, and 2.32% (1.74, 3.08) for those 70 years or above. The overall female to male ratio of the PACG prevalence was 1.51∶1 (95% CI 1.01, 2.28).

Conclusions

PACG affects approximately 0.75% adult Asians, increasing double per decade, and 60% of cases being female. The prevalence rates vary greatly by ethnic region.     

Genome-wide prediction methods for detecting genetic effects of donor chromosome segments in introgression populations

Background

Introgression populations are used to make the genetic variation of unadapted germplasm or wild relatives of crops available for plant breeding. They consist of introgression lines that carry small chromosome segments from an exotic donor in the genetic background of an elite line. The goal of our study was to investigate the detection of favorable donor chromosome segments in introgression lines with statistical methods developed for genome-wide prediction.

Results

Computer simulations showed that genome-wide prediction employing heteroscedastic marker variances had a greater power and a lower false positive rate compared with homoscedastic marker variances when the phenotypic difference between the donor and recipient lines was controlled by few genes. The simulations helped to interpret the analyses of glycosinolate and linolenic acid content in a rapeseed introgression population and plant height in a rye introgression population. These analyses support the superiority of genome-wide prediction approaches that use heteroscedastic marker variances.

Conclusions

We conclude that genome-wide prediction methods in combination with permutation tests can be employed for analysis of introgression populations. They are particularly useful when introgression lines carry several donor segments or when the donor segments of different introgression lines are overlapping.     

Heritability and Demographic Analyses in the Large Isolated Population of Val Borbera Suggest Advantages in Mapping Complex Traits Genes

Background

Isolated populations are a useful resource for mapping complex traits due to shared stable environment, reduced genetic complexity and extended Linkage Disequilibrium (LD) compared to the general population. Here we describe a large genetic isolate from the North West Apennines, the mountain range that runs through Italy from the North West Alps to the South.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The study involved 1,803 people living in 7 villages of the upper Borbera Valley. For this large population cohort, data from genealogy reconstruction, medical questionnaires, blood, anthropometric and bone status QUS parameters were evaluated. Demographic and epidemiological analyses indicated a substantial genetic component contributing to each trait variation as well as overlapping genetic determinants and family clustering for some traits.

Conclusions/Significance

The data provide evidence for significant heritability of medical relevant traits that will be important in mapping quantitative traits. We suggest that this population isolate is suitable to identify rare variants associated with complex phenotypes that may be difficult to study in larger but more heterogeneous populations.     

The consequences of including non-additive effects on the genetic evaluation of harvest body weight in Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch)

Background

In this study, we used different animal models to estimate genetic and environmental variance components on harvest weight in two populations of Oncorhynchus kisutch, forming two classes i.e. odd- and even-year spawners.

Methods

The models used were: additive, with and without inbreeding as a covariable (A + F and A respectively); additive plus common environmental due to full-sib families and inbreeding (A + C + F); additive plus parental dominance and inbreeding (A + D + F); and a full model (A + C + D + F). Genetic parameters and breeding values obtained by different models were compared to evaluate the consequences of including non-additive effects on genetic evaluation.

Results

Including inbreeding as a covariable did not affect the estimation of genetic parameters, but heritability was reduced when dominance or common environmental effects were included. A high heritability for harvest weight was estimated in both populations (even = 0.46 and odd = 0.50) when simple additive models (A + F and A) were used. Heritabilities decreased to 0.21 (even) and 0.37 (odd) when the full model was used (A + C + D + F). In this full model, the magnitude of the dominance variance was 0.19 (even) and 0.06 (odd), while the magnitude of the common environmental effect was lower than 0.01 in both populations. The correlation between breeding values estimated with different models was very high in all cases (i.e. higher than 0.98). However, ranking of the 30 best males and the 100 best females per generation changed when a high dominance variance was estimated, as was the case in one of the two populations (even).

Conclusions

Dominance and common environmental variance may be important components of variance in harvest weight in O. kisutch, thus not including them may produce an overestimation of the predicted response; furthermore, genetic evaluation was seen to be partially affected, since the ranking of selected animals changed with the inclusion of non-additive effects in the animal model.     

A common reference population from four European Holstein populations increases reliability of genomic predictions

Background

Size of the reference population and reliability of phenotypes are crucial factors influencing the reliability of genomic predictions. It is therefore useful to combine closely related populations. Increased accuracies of genomic predictions depend on the number of individuals added to the reference population, the reliability of their phenotypes, and the relatedness of the populations that are combined.

Methods

This paper assesses the increase in reliability achieved when combining four Holstein reference populations of 4000 bulls each, from European breeding organizations, i.e. UNCEIA (France), VikingGenetics (Denmark, Sweden, Finland), DHV-VIT (Germany) and CRV (The Netherlands, Flanders). Each partner validated its own bulls using their national reference data and the combined data, respectively.

Results

Combining the data significantly increased the reliability of genomic predictions for bulls in all four populations. Reliabilities increased by 10%, compared to reliabilities obtained with national reference populations alone, when they were averaged over countries and the traits evaluated. For different traits and countries, the increase in reliability ranged from 2% to 19%.

Conclusions

Genomic selection programs benefit greatly from combining data from several closely related populations into a single large reference population.     

Genetic structure,relationships and admixture with wild relatives in native pig breeds from Iberia and its islands

Background

Native pig breeds in the Iberian Peninsula are broadly classified as belonging to either the Celtic or the Mediterranean breed groups, but there are other local populations that do not fit into any of these groups. Most of the native pig breeds in Iberia are in danger of extinction, and the assessment of their genetic diversity and population structure, relationships and possible admixture between breeds, and the appraisal of conservation alternatives are crucial to adopt appropriate management strategies.

Methods

A panel of 24 microsatellite markers was used to genotype 844 animals representing the 17 most important native swine breeds and wild populations existing in Portugal and Spain and various statistical tools were applied to analyze the results.

Results

Genetic diversity was high in the breeds studied, with an overall mean of 13.6 alleles per locus and an average expected heterozygosity of 0.80. Signs of genetic bottlenecks were observed in breeds with a small census size, and population substructure was present in some of the breeds with larger census sizes. Variability among breeds accounted for about 20% of the total genetic diversity, and was explained mostly by differences among the Celtic, Mediterranean and Basque breed groups, rather than by differences between domestic and wild pigs. Breeds clustered closely according to group, and proximity was detected between wild pigs and the Mediterranean cluster of breeds. Most breeds had their own structure and identity, with very little evidence of admixture, except for the Retinto and Entrepelado varieties of the Mediterranean group, which are very similar. Genetic influence of the identified breed clusters extends beyond the specific geographical areas across borders throughout the Iberian Peninsula, with a very sharp transition from one breed group to another. Analysis of conservation priorities confirms that the ranking of a breed for conservation depends on the emphasis placed on its contribution to the between- and within-breed components of genetic diversity.

Conclusions

Native pig breeds in Iberia reveal high levels of genetic diversity, a solid breed structure and a clear organization in well-defined clusters.     

Mixed mating in androdioecious Mercurialis annua inferred using progeny arrays and diploid-acting microsatellite loci in a hexaploid background

Background and Aims

The frequency at which males can be maintained with hermaphrodites in androdioecious populations is predicted to depend on the selfing rate, because self-fertilization by hermaphrodites reduces prospective siring opportunities for males. In particular, high selfing rates by hermaphrodites are expected to exclude males from a population. Here, the first estimates are provided of the mating system from two wild hexaploid populations of the androdioecious European wind-pollinated plant M. annua with contrasting male frequencies.

Methods

Four diploid microsatellite loci were used to genotype 19–20 progeny arrays from two populations of M. annua, one with males and one without. Mating-system parameters were estimated using the program MLTR.

Key Results

Both populations had similar, intermediate outcrossing rates (t_m = 0·64 and 0·52 for the population with and without males, respectively). The population without males showed a lower level of correlated paternity and biparental inbreeding and higher allelic richness and gene diversity than the population with males.

Conclusions

The results demonstrate the utility of new diploid microsatellite loci for mating system analysis in a hexaploid plant. It would appear that androdioecious M. annua has a mixed-mating system in the wild, an uncommon finding for wind-pollinated species. This study sets a foundation for future research to assess the relative importance of the sexual system, plant-density variation and stochastic processes for the regulation of male frequencies in M. annua over space and time.     

Ashkenazi Jewish centenarians do not demonstrate enrichment in mitochondrial haplogroup J

Background

Association of mitochondrial haplogroup J with longevity has been reported in several population subgroups. While studies from northern Italy and Finland, have described a higher frequency of haplogroup J among centenarians in comparison to non-centenarian, several other studies could not replicate these results and suggested various explanations for the discrepancy.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We have evaluated haplogroup frequencies among Ashkenazi Jewish centenarians using two different sets of matched controls. No difference was observed in the haplogroup J frequencies between the centenarians or either matched control group, despite adequate statistical power to detect such a difference. Furthermore, the lack of association was robust to population substructure in the Ashkenazi Jewish population. Given this discrepancy with the previous reported associations in the northern Italian and the Finnish populations, we conducted re-analysis of these previously published data, which supported one of several possible explanations: i) inadequate matching of cases and controls; ii) inadequate adjustment for multiple comparison testing; iii) cryptic population stratification.

Conclusions/Significance

There does not exist a universal association of mitochondrial haplogroup J with longevity across all population groups. Reported associations in specialized populations may reflect genetic or other interactions specific to those populations or else cryptic confounding influences, such as inadequate matching attributable to population substructure, which are of general relevance to all studies of the possible association of mitochondrial DNA haplogroups with common complex phenotypes.     

Spirometry Reference Equations for Central European Populations from School Age to Old Age

Background

Spirometry reference values are important for the interpretation of spirometry results. Reference values should be updated regularly, derived from a population as similar to the population for which they are to be used and span across all ages. Such spirometry reference equations are currently lacking for central European populations.

Objective

To develop spirometry reference equations for central European populations between 8 and 90 years of age.

Materials

We used data collected between January 1993 and December 2010 from a central European population. The data was modelled using “Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape” (GAMLSS).

Results

The spirometry reference equations were derived from 118''891 individuals consisting of 60''624 (51%) females and 58''267 (49%) males. Altogether, there were 18''211 (15.3%) children under the age of 18 years.

Conclusion

We developed spirometry reference equations for a central European population between 8 and 90 years of age that can be implemented in a wide range of clinical settings.     

Distribution and Prevalence of the Australian Non-Pathogenic Rabbit Calicivirus Is Correlated with Rainfall and Temperature

Background

Australia relies heavily on rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) for the biological control of introduced European wild rabbits Oryctolagus cuniculus, which are significant economic and environmental pests. An endemic non-pathogenic rabbit calicivirus termed RCV–A1 also occurs in wild rabbits in Australian and provides partial protection against lethal RHDV infection, thus interfering with effective rabbit control. Despite its obvious importance for rabbit population management, little is known about the epidemiology of this benign rabbit calicivirus.

Methods

We determined the continent-wide distribution and prevalence of RCV-A1 by analysing 1,805 serum samples from wild rabbit populations at 78 sites across Australia for the presence of antibodies to RCV-A1 using a serological test that specifically detects RCV-A1 antibodies and does not cross-react with co-occurring RHDV antibodies. We also investigated possible correlation between climate variables and prevalence of RCV-A1 by using generalised linear mixed effect models.

Results

Antibodies to RCV-A1 were predominantly detected in rabbit populations in cool, high rainfall areas of the south-east and south-west of the continent. There was strong support for modelling RCV-A1 prevalence as a function of average annual rainfall and minimum temperature. The best ranked model explained 26% of the model structural deviance. According to this model, distribution and prevalence of RCV-A1 is positively correlated with periods of above average rainfall and negatively correlated with periods of drought.

Implications

Our statistical model of RCV-A1 prevalence will greatly increase our understanding of RCV-A1 epidemiology and its interaction with RHDV in Australia. By defining the environmental conditions associated with the prevalence of RCV-A1, it also contributes towards understanding the distribution of similar viruses in New Zealand and Europe.