杭州市公交车油改电项目碳排放效益核算

以减少碳排放为核心的应对气候变化行动已成为全球趋势,中国政府积极践行减少碳排放的国际承诺,出台多项鼓励新能源的政策措施,其中包括对新能源产业的补偿以及将燃油汽车改装为电动汽车。但是这些政策的实施效果并不太清楚。举例来说,煤电为主的供电类型极大削弱了碳减排的效果,充电桩等配套基础设施建设和旧车报废等过程还会产生额外碳排放,不同城市之间的这些情况差别也较大。因此,城市层面生命周期尺度上的电动车碳减排效果尚未明确。基于生命周期理论,以杭州市为例,在构建公交车生命周期模型下分别核算纯电动和柴油车生命周期碳排放量,并在基准情景、低碳情景和强化低碳情景下进行公交车油改电碳排模拟。研究结果表明:(1)杭州市单辆纯电动和柴油公交车生命周期CO2排放量分别为1103.237t和1401.319t,减排比例达21.27%。其中,电力生产约占纯电动车生命周期碳排量74.10%,柴油生产与消耗约占柴油车生命周期碳排量86.96%;(2)目前杭州市在营运的2312辆纯电动公交车生命周期内(13年)碳减排总量约达到68.917万t,年均5.301万t;(3)在油改电过程中,纯电动公交车需运行约3.5年后才能相对柴油公交车真正起到碳减排效果;(4)在不同新煤电技术及能源结构优化下,2020、2035和2050年杭州市公交车油改电项目每辆车碳减排量将达到354.071—884.339t,年均27.236—68.026t,减排比例25.27%—63.11%,且2050年强化情景下纯公交车生命周期碳排量仅为当前纯电动公交车和柴油公交车的46.86%和36.89%,潜在碳减排效益显著。     

Evaluation of regional environmental efficiencies in China based on super-efficiency-DEA

This study measures the environmental efficiency of China based on environmental super-efficiency data envelopment analysis (SEDEA) model by using data of 30 provinces in China during the period of 2000–2010. We find that environmental efficiencies across 30 provinces show regional disparities. Cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have experienced improvement in efficiency while Qinghai showed worse performance. More generally, East areas are more efficient in production while the west rank the last with central areas ranking in between during the period studied. Policies should be established to further promote production efficiency.     

基于数据包络分析方法的辽宁省工业节能减碳效率

以辽宁省2003—2012年39个行业作为独立的决策单元,综合考虑经济、能源和环境效益,结合方向距离函数和径向数据包络分析(DEA)方法对各工业行业节能减碳效率进行测算和分解,核算了各工业行业的CO₂排放,并将CO₂作为一种非期望产出引入到节能减碳效率模型中.结果表明: 研究期间,辽宁省工业行业节能减碳效率具有明显的行业异质性;辽宁省工业节能减碳效率总体不高,但呈现上升趋势;提高纯技术效率和规模效率是提高工业节能减碳效率的主要措施,尤其是提高规模效率.为了提高辽宁省各行业节能减碳效率,辽宁省应加快调整产业结构,鼓励发展低碳排放高效益的产业;提高科技水平,合理调整产业规模;优化能源结构,推进可再生能源和清洁能源的开发.     

基于高通量测序技术分析患病与健康虾夷扇贝(Patinopecten yessoensis)闭壳肌菌群多样性

本研究取自同一养殖海域不同浮筏养殖笼中健康和患脓包病虾夷扇贝(Patinopecten yessoensis)样品,健康虾夷扇贝样品标记为CK,患病样品分别标记为S1、S2和S3,使用Mi Seq高通量测序技术比较不同生存状态的虾夷扇贝的微生物组成与差异。结果表明:4个样品中菌群多样性表现为S3CKS1S2;4个样品中的细菌可归为24个门,主要门类有变形菌门、拟杆菌门、浮霉菌门、梭杆菌门、厚壁菌门、酸杆菌门、放线菌门、硝化螺旋菌门、绿菌门和绿弯菌门;在健康虾夷扇贝样品中,变形菌门占绝对优势,占整个菌群的95.9%,患病虾夷扇贝样品中,S1和S3中优势类群均为变形菌门,分别占整个菌群的80.4%和86.8%,S2中优势菌群为拟杆菌门,占56.9%。     

典型社区家庭消费碳排放特征与影响因素——以北京市为例

家庭消费碳排放是中国碳排放总量的重要组成部分,已成为碳排放增长的主要驱动力,从消费角度研究家庭碳排量特征及影响因素对家庭碳减排和低碳社区建设有重要意义。使用碳排放系数法和消费者生活方式法计算北京市5种典型社区家庭消费月均碳排量,通过最优尺度回归和多重比较分析对不同社区家庭碳排放影响因素进行探究。研究发现：北京市5种社区户均碳排放总量及构成差异显著,影响因素不一致。其中：（1）平房类社区家庭直接碳排量732.26 kgCO₂/月高于其他社区,燃煤取暖是平房社区家庭直接碳排放高的主要因素,单位社区、政策性住房社区和商品房社区家庭直接碳排量较低,约50.00 kgCO₂/月。家庭类型显著影响每个社区家庭直接碳排量,家庭积极参与节能环保活动有利于减少家庭直接碳排放;（2）商品房社区家庭间接碳排量最高,达3879.06 kgCO₂/月,平房类社区家庭最低,间接碳排量仅为商品房社区的1/3,间接碳排放是家庭生活消费碳排放的主体。食品和居住消费产生的间接碳排量较高,老龄化社区家庭医疗保健消费碳排量更高;（3）家庭类型和月总收入对所有社区家庭间接碳排量影响显著,但社区环保工作满意度、社区环境满意度、家庭节能环保活动参与度、耐用品使用年限等因素影响程度存在差异,胡同社区和平房类社区中受教育水平高的家庭产生的间接碳排量更高,需积极灌输环保理念。进一步分析了主要影响因素在不同水平下对应的家庭碳排量差异程度与变化规律,有助于社区管理者识别高碳排家庭,为社区低碳管理提供新思路。     

碳中和视角下秸秆处置方式对碳源汇的贡献

探明农作物秸秆在不同处置方式下的碳源汇时空变化特征,对优化我国秸秆资源利用政策、实现碳减排最大化、实现碳中和目标具有重要意义。本研究以国家统计年鉴数据为基础,对我国31个省农作物秸秆不同处置下的碳排放、碳减排、碳增汇及其价值量的变化趋势进行研究。结果表明: 2008—2019年间,我国秸秆焚烧年均碳排放量为874万t CO₂e,2014年以来碳排放年均减少率为17.3%;能源化利用年均碳减排量为3982万t CO₂e,其中,秸秆生产固体成型燃料碳减排贡献最大,约占能源化碳减排总量的98%;秸秆还田碳汇量总体呈逐年上升趋势,年均碳汇量为2.71亿t CO₂e;我国秸秆处置存在碳生态盈余,净碳减排量年均增长率为9.8%,净碳减排强度及其价值量均呈增长趋势,2019年分别高达2.62 t·hm^-2和76.19元·hm^-2。我国秸秆年均碳排放、能源碳减排、秸秆还田碳汇以及净碳减排大致呈“东高西低”的空间分布规律,且地区差异及空间聚集性是三者的最主要外部特征。     

Tannins determined by various methods as predictors of methane production reduction potential of plants by an in vitro rumen fermentation system

Relationships between chemical constituents, including values obtained with tannin assays (i.e., total phenols, total tannins, condensed tannins and tannin activity using a tannin bioassay) for plant materials (n = 17), and methane production parameters at 24 h of incubation in the in vitro Hohenheim gas method were established. The methane production reduction potential (MRP) was calculated by assuming net methane concentration for the control hay as 100%. The MRP of Bergenia crassifolia leaves and roots, and Peltiphyllum peltatum leaves, was >40%. Amongst the chemical constituents, neutral detergent fibre had a high correlation (r = 0.86) with methane concentration. There was negative relationship between total phenol, total tannins or tannin activity and methane concentration. However, a positive relationship existed between these tannin assays and the MRP, with r-values ranging from 0.54 to 0.79 (P<0.05). A very weak relationship (r = 0.09) occurred between condensed tannins and MRP. Similar results to those with MRP were obtained with the percent increase in methane on addition of polyethylene glycol. The highest correlations, 0.79 and 0.92 (P<0.001), were between tannin activity determined using the tannin bioassay and the MRP, or the percent increase in methane on addition of polyethylene glycol, respectively, suggesting that this tannin assay could be used to identify plants possessing antimethanogenic properties. Leaves of Rheum undulatum, Vaccinium vitis-idaea, B. crassifolia, Rhus typhina and P. peltatum, and roots of B. crassifolia have considerable potential (i.e., >25%) to decrease enteric methane production from ruminants.     

Predicting lichen hydration using biophysical models

Two models for predicting the hydration status of lichens were developed as a first step towards a mechanistic lichen productivity model. A biophysical model included the water potential of the air, derived from measurements of air temperature, relative humidity and species-specific rate constants for desiccation and rehydration. A reduced physical model, included only environmental parameters, assuming instantaneous equilibration between the lichen and the air. These models were developed using field and laboratory data for three green algal lichens: the foliose epiphytic Platismatia glauca (L.) W. Culb., the fruticose epiphytic Alectoria sarmentosa (Ach.) Ach. and the fruticose, terricolous and mat-forming Cladina rangiferina (L.) Weber ex Wigg. The models were compared and validated for the same three species using data from a habitat with a different microclimate. Both models predicted the length and timing of lichen hydration periods, with those for A. sarmentosa and P. glauca being highly accurate—nearly 100% of the total wet time was predicted by both the biophysical and physical models. These models also predicted an accurate timing of the total realized wet time for A. sarmentosa and P. glauca when the lichens were wet. The model accuracy was lower for C. rangiferina compared to the epiphytes, both for the total realized wet time and for the accuracy of the timing for the hydration period. These results demonstrate that the stochastic and continually varying hydration status of lichens can be simulated from biophysical data. Further development of these models to also include water-related activity, light and temperature conditions during the hydration events will then be a potent tool to assess potential lichen productivity in landscapes and habitats of various microclimatic conditions.     

在矿山废弃地上发展可再生能源的潜力——以辽宁省为例

在国内外碳减排压力和我国能源结构调整需求下,我国可再生能源的开发压力较大.矿山具有丰富的废弃土地,发展可再生能源的潜力巨大,在矿山废弃地上开发可再生能源对我国的能源战略具有重要意义.本研究以辽宁省矿山废弃地为例,提出矿山废弃地的生物质能与太阳能发展预案,估算辽宁省矿山废弃地的可再生能源发展潜力.结果表明:辽宁省1227.6 km2的矿山废弃地面积发展可再生能源的潜力较大,不同预案的潜力差异显著.预案1以光伏发电最大化为目标模式,总计可发电量为79.4 TWh,折标煤量32.1 Mt,碳减排量为79.1Mt CO2.预案2以生物质能源利用最大化为目标模式,光伏与生物质能总的发电量可达到31.2~33.1 TWh,折标煤量12.7~13.4 Mt,碳减排量为31.1~33.0 Mt CO2.预案3以矿山能源综合利用最大化为目标并兼顾生态修复的发展模式,光伏与生物质能总的发电量可达到62.3~63.7 TWh,折标煤量25.1~25.7 Mt,碳减排量为62.1~63.5 Mt CO2.3种预案的发电量在31.2~79.4 TWh,占辽宁省2016年总电力消费量的15.3%~38.9%,折标煤量12.7~32.1 Mt,碳减排量为31.1~79.1 Mt CO2.本研究对在矿山废弃地上发展可再生能源潜力及其替代化石能源能力的评估,对于碳减排、能源结构的调整以及矿山废弃地的生态修复具有重要的研究意义.     

Will Pollution Taxes Improve Joint Ecological and Economic Efficiency of Thermal Power Industry in China?: A DEA‐Based Materials Balance Approach

Previous studies of the efficiency of Chinese electricity industry have been limited in providing insights regarding policy implications of inherent trade‐offs of economic and environmental outcomes. This study proposes a modified data envelopment analysis method combined with materials balance principle to estimate ecological and cost efficiency in the Chinese electricity industry. The economic cost and ecological impact of energy input reallocation strategies for improving efficiency are identified. The possible impacts of pollution taxes upon the levels of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions are assessed. Estimation results show that (1) both energy input costs and SO₂ could be reduced through increasing technical efficiency. (2) It is possible to adjust energy input mix to attain ecological efficiency, and, correspondingly, SO₂ would be reduced by 15%. (3) The Chinese electricity industry would reduce its unit cost by 9% if optimal ecological efficiency is attained and reduce its unit pollution by 13% if optimal cost efficiency is attained, implying that there are positive ecological synergy effects associated with energy cost savings and positive economic synergy effects associated with SO₂ pollution reductions. (4) Estimated shadow costs of SO₂ reduction are very high, suggesting that, in the short term, the Chinese electricity industry should pursue cost efficiency instead of ecological efficiency, since alternative abatement activities are less costly and some of the abatement cost could be further offset by energy input cost savings. (5) There would be no significant difference between the impacts of pollution discharge fees and pollution taxes on SO₂ emissions levels because of the relatively low pollution tax rate.     

东北黑土地区稻田甲烷排放时空演变及排放潜力分析

稻田甲烷排放是农业源甲烷排放的主要来源。东北黑土地区是我国最大的粮食生产基地,农业温室气体减排是实现黑土地永续利用的关键议题之一。运用稻田甲烷排放模型（CH4MOD）核算并分析了2009—2018年东北黑土地区稻田甲烷排放的时空演变特征,结合GOSAT卫星遥感数据探究了水稻生产与区域甲烷排放的时空动态联系,进一步量化了稻田甲烷对区域甲烷排放的贡献程度及不同情景下的排放潜力。结果表明,受水稻生产面积扩张和排放强度提高的影响,东北黑土地区稻田甲烷排放总量从2009年的39.05万t增加到2018年的79.53万t。东北黑土地区区域甲烷排放在季节变化和栅格单元上表现出与稻田甲烷排放较为一致的时空动态,大规模的稻田耕作可能会增加水稻生产与区域甲烷排放直接相关的可能性。随着水稻持续扩种稳产,2018年东北黑土地区水稻生产贡献了区域甲烷排放总量的15.04%,其中黑龙江省的贡献率高达31.06%。在基准发展情景下,预计2035年东北黑土地区稻田CH₄排放量较2018年增加19.5%;在粮食供给保障情景下,维持当前稻田耕作面积,水稻生产集约化程度提高,预计其稻田CH₄排放量较2018年减少0.88%;在此基础上,采取促进秸秆还田、增施有机肥、实施节水间歇灌溉等稻田管理措施将使稻田CH₄排放量增加17.8%—63.6%。以满足膳食需求和供给保障为导向,优化水稻种植结构、控制稻田耕作面积,推动技术进步、品种改良以提升单产水平,采取化肥和有机肥搭配施用、节水间歇灌溉等途径能够缓解稻田甲烷排放。研究综合运用自上而下的遥感数据和自下而上的模型运算,刻画了水稻生产与区域甲烷排放的时空联系,进一步评估了稻田甲烷的排放潜力及减排措施的减排效果,为促进东北黑土地区农业甲烷减排和生产布局优化提供了理论依据和决策参考。     

甲烷生物利用及嗜甲烷菌的工程改造

作为来源广泛、储量丰富的有机碳一气体,甲烷被认为是下一代工业生物技术中最具潜力的碳原料之一.嗜甲烷菌能够利用其体内的甲烷单加氧化酶,将甲烷作为唯一的碳源和能源进行生长和代谢,这为温室气体减排及其开发利用提供了新的策略.目前,嗜甲烷菌生物催化体系的相关研究已开展多年,随着系统生物学和合成生物学的快速发展,利用代谢工程合理...     

Dimensionality reduction for visualization of normal and pathological speech data

For an adequate analysis of pathological speech signals, a sizeable number of parameters is required, such as those related to jitter, shimmer and noise content. Often this kind of high-dimensional signal representation is difficult to understand, even for expert voice therapists and physicians. Data visualization of a high-dimensional dataset can provide a useful first step in its exploratory data analysis, facilitating an understanding about its underlying structure. In the present paper, eight dimensionality reduction techniques, both classical and recent, are compared on speech data containing normal and pathological speech. A qualitative analysis of their dimensionality reduction capabilities is presented. The transformed data are also quantitatively evaluated, using classifiers, and it is found that it may be advantageous to perform the classification process on the transformed data, rather than on the original. These qualitative and quantitative analyses allow us to conclude that a nonlinear, supervised method, called kernel local Fisher discriminant analysis is superior for dimensionality reduction in the actual context.