Testing hypotheses about the function of repeated nest abandonment as a life history strategy in a passerine bird

Nest structures are essential for successful reproduction in most bird species. Nest construction costs time and energy, and most bird species typically build one nest per breeding attempt. Some species, however, build more than one nest, and the reason for this behaviour is often unclear. In the Grey Fantail Rhipidura albiscapa, nest abandonment before egg‐laying is very common. Fantails will build up to seven nests within a breeding season, and pairs abandon up to 71% of their nests before egg‐laying. We describe multiple nest‐building behaviour in the Grey Fantail and test four hypotheses explaining nest abandonment in this species: cryptic depredation, destruction of nests during storm events, and two anti‐predatory responses (construction of decoy nests to confuse predators, and increasing concealment to ‘hide’ nests more effectively). We found support for only one hypothesis – that abandonment is related to nest concealment. Abandoned nests were significantly less concealed than nests that received eggs. Most abandoned nests were not completely built and none received eggs, thus ruling out cryptic predation. Nests were not more likely to be abandoned following storm events. The decoy nest hypothesis was refuted as abandoned nests were constructed at any point during the breeding season and some nests were dismantled and the material used to build the subsequent nest. Thus, Grey Fantails are flexible about nest‐site locations during the nest‐building phase and readily abandon nest locations if they are found to have deficient security.     

Nest building under the risk of predation: safe nests are not always the best option

Nest predation is a widespread demographic and evolutionary force in avian reproduction, but few studies have considered the circumstances under which birds might invest in the construction of safe nests. We examined this question using a stochastic simulation model based on a basic passerine breeding season. Nest safety functions were used to translate time invested in nest building into an increase in daily nest survival; that increase could be rapid, requiring only a few days to achieve a safe nest, or slow, taking many days to do so. The maximum achievable safety differed across nest safety functions. Given a limited length to the breeding season, a greater time investment in nest safety detracts from the time available for re‐nesting following successful or unsuccessful nesting attempts. In many circumstances, the best option is a quick‐build ‘minimal’ nest that provides adequate support for young, but little additional safety from attacks. This is especially true for scenarios that allow for multiple nesting attempts across a season. However, relatively safe nests that can be built fairly quickly are uniformly favored options. Safe, long‐build nests are favored only when they provide a great deal of safety over other nest‐building options, but greater safety alone is not sufficient for such investment. Simulations allowing only a single nesting attempt generally favor a greater investment in nest safety. Parental survival is another important factor in nest investment. Increased danger to the parent during nest building strongly favors a low investment in nests. However, substantial investment in a safe nest is favored when that safety extends to the incubating parent. Our results provide some insight into the prevalence of seemingly unsafe, open‐cup nests across the bird world, but the range of nest types that could potentially be built by a given species is an open question.     

Testing the importance of nest concealment: does timing matter?

ABSTRACT.   Nest concealment by vegetation is considered an important factor affecting predation rates for many passerines and, therefore, is frequently measured in studies examining nest predation. However, the time when concealment measurements are made may affect the results of such studies, particularly in highly seasonal ecosystems where characteristics of the vegetation later in the breeding period may differ considerably from those at the time of nest-site selection. We used artificial nests baited with quail ( Coturnix sp.) eggs in a highly seasonal tropical dry forest in Jalisco, western Mexico, to test the effects of seasonal change in concealment on nest predation. We placed 40 open-cup, artificial nests in shrubs at the end of the dry season and again at the beginning of the rainy season in 2007, and monitored the fate of the nests and the degree of concealment by vegetation during both periods. Nest concealment was significantly greater during the wet season than during the dry season. The percentage of nests predated was marginally higher during the dry (100%) than the wet (72.5%) season, and daily nest survival was lower during the dry than the wet season. Our results suggest that, in highly seasonal environments such as tropical dry forests, delayed measurement of nest concealment after nest completion rather than during nesting may constitute a significant source of error.     

Intraseasonal patterns in shorebird nest survival are related to nest age and defence behaviour

Nest survival may vary throughout the breeding season for many bird species, and the nature of this temporal variation can reveal the links between birds, their predators, and other components of the ecosystem. We used program Mark to model patterns in nest survival within the breeding season for shorebirds nesting on arctic tundra. From 2000 to 2007, we monitored 521 nests of five shorebird species and found strong evidence for variation in nest survival within a nesting season. Daily nest survival was lowest in the mid-season in 5 of 8 years, but the timing and magnitude of the lows varied. We found no evidence that this quadratic time effect was driven by seasonal changes in weather or the abundance of predators. Contrary to our prediction, the risk of predation was not greatest when the number of active shorebird nests was highest. Although nest abundance reached a maximum near the middle of the breeding season, a daily index of shorebird nest activity was not supported as a predictor of nest survival in the models. Predators’ access to other diet items, in addition to shorebird nests, may instead determine the temporal patterns of nest predation. Nest survival also displayed a positive, linear relationship with nest age; however, this effect was most pronounced among species with biparental incubation. Among biparental species, parents defended older nests with greater intensity. We did not detect a similar relationship among uniparental species, and conclude that the stronger relationship between nest age and both nest defence and nest survival for biparental species reflects that their nest defence is more effective.     

Experimental Evidence that Sexual Displays are Costly for Nest Survival

Nest predation is one of the most significant limitations for successful breeding of tropical passerines. Thus, parental strategies may include choosing appropriate nest sites and behaving in ways that minimize predation. Habitat characteristics that may influence nest success include degree of nest concealment, proximity to habitat edge, plant architecture as well as several others cited in the literature. However, few studies have examined display behavior as a factor that could also influence nest survival. We experimentally tested whether sexual motor displays served as a cue for visually oriented predators to locate artificial nests in a population of blue‐black grassquits Volatinia jacarina, a Neotropical passerine that exhibits a complex sexual display and is subjected to elevated rates of nest predation. We also evaluated the effect of nest substrate on survival. Predation rate was higher for nests within territories of displaying males relative to areas without displaying males and for nests placed in shrubs relative to grasses. Predation increased sharply in the third experimental replicate, at the end of the breeding season, which suggests that predators may develop a search image for nests or may become more abundant during specific periods of the season. Avian predators appear to be the most important nest predators. Results suggest that there may be a trade‐off between the increase in fitness derived from sexual displays of males to attract potential mates and the decrease owing to predation of active nests within their territories.     

New is not always better: low breeding success and different occupancy patterns in newly built nests of a long-lived species,the white stork Ciconia ciconia

Capsule An increase in new nest building in a white stork population revealed that they were built further from human settlement and on non-typical structures; such nests had lower breeding success resulting from later breeding.

Aim To determine why some birds build new nests rather than occupy older ones, and how new nests affect breeding performance compared to old nests, in a long-lived bird, the white stork.

Methods We compared new nest construction in 2010 with a long-term data set on white stork in Western Poland from 1974 to 2009. For data from 2010, we analysed nest location and breeding biology in detail.

Results Since 1974, the proportion of new build nests was ca. 1.6%; in 2010 this was 13.2%. Pairs in new nests bred later than pairs in old, and had smaller clutches and lower breeding success. New nests were located further from settlements and tended to be built on different structures. A significantly lower proportion of new nests were re-occupied in subsequent years.

Conclusions Pairs may build new nests to gain experience in nest building, cooperation and foraging for subsequent seasons or because of competitive pressure when the environment is close to carrying capacity. Breeding success can be initially very low.     

Building multiple nests is associated with reduced breeding performance in a south temperate population of Grass Wrens Cistothorus platensis platensis

Grass Wrens Cistothorus platensis build two types of non-breeding nest structures: platforms and dummy nests. Platforms are rudimentary accumulations of grasses concealed between vegetation. Dummy and breeding nests are dome-shaped with a similar structural layer. We used a nest-removal experiment and observational data to evaluate several hypotheses regarding the adaptive significance of building multiple nests in a south temperate population of Grass Wrens. Building non-breeding nests was not a strategy of males to attract additional females, as most of these nests were built after pair formation and both sexes collaborated during building. Building non-breeding nests was not a post-pairing display as the presence of multiple nests did not increase female investment in the breeding attempt: clutch size and female provisioning to nestlings did not differ between experimental and control territories where no non-breeding nests were removed. Similarly, in non-manipulated territories, clutch size and female provisioning were not correlated with the number of non-breeding nests or with males’ nest-building effort. Contrary to this hypothesis, the number of non-breeding nests was associated with delayed clutch initiation and reduced hatching success. The presence of non-breeding nests did not reduce nest predation and brood parasitism, which did not differ between experimental and control territories. We did not detect differences in concealment between non-breeding and breeding nests, suggesting that non-breeding nests were not the result of abandonment before egg-laying to reduce subsequent nest predation. Dummy nests did not provide shelter; they were not used frequently for roosting over the breeding season and were not maintained during the non-breeding season. We suggest that building non-breeding nests may be an attempt by males to manipulate the decision of females to breed with a mate they might otherwise reject or to start reproduction earlier than optimal for the females.     

Reproductive behavior and spawning success of female Amblyglyphidodon leucogaster (Pisces: Pomacentridae) from the Red Sea

The reproductive behavior of female whitebelly damselfish, Amblyglyphidodon leucogaster, was investigated in the Gulf of Aqaba, Red Sea over two breeding seasons. Females were promiscuous, mating with 7–10 different males throughout the season. Females lay eggs in distinct batches, defined as the total number of eggs laid in a day. Generally females deposit a batch of eggs with one male (87.2%) and are capable of laying a new batch every other day. Egg batch size averaged 4009 eggs and females laid from 2 to 22 egg batches per season. The variation in spawning success was not correlated to body size. Females preferred to deposit eggs in nests that already contained early stage eggs (0–2 days old). Within a nest, females chose to lay eggs contiguous to the youngest egg batch, regardless if the nest contained either a single batch or multiple batches of different ages. Female within-nest spawning patterns appear to be a consequence of between nest preferences for nests with young eggs. It is proposed that the strong within-nest preference is a consequence of mate selection where females may use new egg batches as a visual cue as part of a copying style. Such a style may reduce the risk of predation and increase feeding opportunities, because less time is expended in mate selection, which would provide additional resources for egg production and ultimately increase female spawning success over the breeding season. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Adaptive nest clustering and density‐dependent nest survival in dabbling ducks

Density‐dependent population regulation is observed in many taxa, and understanding the mechanisms that generate density dependence is especially important for the conservation of heavily‐managed species. In one such system, North American waterfowl, density dependence is often observed at continental scales, and nest predation has long been implicated as a key factor driving this pattern. However, despite extensive research on this topic, it remains unclear if and how nest density influences predation rates. Part of this confusion may have arisen because previous studies have studied density‐dependent predation at relatively large spatial and temporal scales. Because the spatial distribution of nests changes throughout the season, which potentially influences predator behavior, nest survival may vary through time at relatively small spatial scales. As such, density‐dependent nest predation might be more detectable at a spatially‐ and temporally‐refined scale and this may provide new insights into nest site selection and predator foraging behavior. Here, we used three years of data on nest survival of two species of waterfowl, mallards and gadwall, to more fully explore the relationship between local nest clustering and nest survival. Throughout the season, we found that the distribution of nests was consistently clustered at small spatial scales (?50–400 m), especially for mallard nests, and that this pattern was robust to yearly variation in nest density and the intensity of predation. We demonstrated further that local nest clustering had positive fitness consequences – nests with closer nearest neighbors were more likely to be successful, a result that is counter to the general assumption that nest predation rates increase with nest density.     

Old nests are cues for suitable breeding sites in the Eurasian penduline tit Remiz pendulinus

Nest-sites often have a major influence on avian reproductive success. The use of reliable cues that assist nest-site selection should thus be favoured by natural selection. The old nests have been known to serve as a cue in nest-site selection in several species. To find out whether the old nests act as cue in nest-site selection in the Eurasian penduline tit Remiz pendulinus , we carried out two experiments in southern Hungary, where the penduline tits breed around fishponds and build sophisticated pendulous nests on tree branches that often hang over water. In April 2006, we choose 20 groups of two nearby trees, and hung an old nest on one of the trees in each group. The male penduline tits choose 12 of these groups to build a new nest, and every of the twelve nests were built on trees with an old nest. This suggests that the old nests serve as a cue in the selection of breeding sites for males when they enter a habitat. To find out whether the old nests are cues of plentiful nest building material, or to signal high quality breeding areas, we carried out a second experiment in 2007 by selecting 13 groups of three nearby trees. A "worn-out" old nest was hung on one of the trees, a "re-utilize" type of old nest on another tree, whereas the third tree was left without an old nest in each group. The rationale was that while the worn-out material of the old nests is of no use in building the new nests, material of the "re-utilize" nests is good enough to be used for building new nests. Males built a new nest in 10 of the 13 groups, and eight of the new nests were built on trees with an old nest. Of the eight new nests, five were built on trees with a "worn-out" old nest and three on trees with a "re-utilize" type of old nest. It appears that for the penduline tit males it is the presence of an existing old nest and not the quality of the old nest material that serves as cue during the selection of the suitable breeding sites.     

Nesting success in Redshank Tringa totanus breeding on coastal meadows and the importance of habitat features used as perches by avian predators

Capsule Nest survival rates could not be explained by distance to habitat edges or other features used by predators.

Aims To investigate if predation on Redshank nests was affected by habitat characteristics at a local scale.

Methods We examined survival rates of Redshank nests on coastal meadows on the Baltic island of Gotland, Sweden, over two breeding seasons. We analysed nest survival rates in relation to several habitat characteristics that may benefit predators searching for nests. We examined existing studies concerning predation rates on wader nests in relation to edges and habitat features potentially used by avian predators.

Results We found no significant effects of distance to habitat edge or to nearest potential lookout for avian predators or to shoreline. Abundance of Lapwings Vanellus vanellus, an aggressive species with active nest-defence, did not have any significant effect on nest survival rate, nor did vegetation concealment of nests. Nest survival rates were significantly different between years and lower later in the season.

Conclusions There is only weak support for general effects on wader nest predation rates of proximity to edges and features used by avian predators. Simple mechanical management actions such as removal of trees and bushes on coastal meadows may not directly, and by itself, result in higher reproductive success of waders. Further understanding is needed of the behaviour of predators and the composition of the predator community in different landscapes in order to increase the efficiency of management actions to remove threats to vulnerable species on coastal meadows.     

Island shape,size, and isolation affect nest‐site selection by Little Terns

ABSTRACT Populations of many seabirds and other species that nest along coasts are declining due to habitat degradation and loss. An improved understanding of the species‐specific factors that determine nest density across a landscape is therefore critical for conservation efforts. We examined factors that affected the density (number per hectare) and abundance (number at a sampling site) of nests of Little Terns (Sternula albifrons) on the Sinai Peninsula, Egypt. Terns preferred to nest on islands rather than the mainland, with islands constituting 64% of the area surveyed, but containing 99% of the 439 tern nests we found. Nest densities were highest on islands that were small, located at moderate distances from the mainland, and irregularly shaped or elongated. Most nests (69%) were on islands with areas < 3 ha, although these islands represented < 5% of total island area, and islands with the highest nest densities were 80–300 m from the mainland. Terrestrial predators were more likely to occur on larger islands, visiting three of the largest four islands. Most tern nests were within 1 m of shorelines, causing island perimeter to be a strong influence on nest density. Island shape was the only factor that significantly affected nest abundance, with more nests on islands with relatively long perimeters for their size. Our results suggest that protection or creation of relatively small, slender islands at moderate distances from shore may be an effective means of increasing the number of breeding sites for Little Terns. Although not generally considered a potential determinant of nest site preferences for seabirds, island shape is likely to be important for species that prefer sites adjacent to water, including species that nest on beaches and seaside cliffs.     

Forest fragmentation relaxes natural nest predation in an Afromontane forest

Nest predation is widely regarded as a major driver underlying the population dynamics of small forest birds. Following forest fragmentation and the subsequent invasion by species from non-forested landscape matrices, shifts in predator communities may increase nest predation near forest edges. However, effects of human-driven habitat change on nest predation have mainly been inferred from studies with artificial nests, despite being regarded as poor surrogates for natural ones. We studied variation in predation rates, and relationships with timing of breeding and characteristics of microhabitats and fragments, on natural white-starred robin Pogonocichla stellata nests during three consecutive breeding seasons (2004–2007) in a Kenyan fragmented cloud forest. More than 70% of all initiated nests were predated during each breeding season. Predation rates nearly quadrupled between the earliest and the latest nests within a single breeding season, increased with distance to the forest edge, and decreased with the edge-to-area ratio of forest fragments. These spatial relationships oppose the traditional perception of edge and fragmentation effects on nest predation, but are in line with results from artificial nest experiments in other East African forests. In case of inverse edge and fragmentation effects on nest predation, such as shown in this study, species that tolerate edges for breeding may be affected positively, rather than negatively, by forest fragmentation, while the opposite can be expected for species restricted to the forest interior. The possibility of inverse edge effects, and its conservation implications, should therefore be taken into account when drafting habitat restoration plans.     

Nest site selection and predation driven despotic distribution of breeding long-eared owls Asio otus

Long-eared owls Asio otus do not build their own nests. They occupy old corvid nests in either coniferous or deciduous trees. In my study area owls favoured coniferous over deciduous trees for nesting and occupied nest sites in that order. Comparing overall breeding output, I found no difference between the two kinds of nest sites, but among early nests there was a higher proportion of unsuccessful nests in deciduous trees. This difference was due to differences in predation rate, indicating that the owls' pattern of nest site occupation followed predictions from the ideal despotic distribution model. I also show that, due to a seasonal change in habitat quality, predator driven despotism, although present, can be well masked and hence difficult to detect.     

Managing ecological traps: Logging and sapsucker nest predation by bears

We tested the equal preference ecological trap hypothesis for breeding yellow-bellied sapsuckers (Sphyrapicus varius) along a time-since-harvest gradient (1–5 yr, 16–20 yr, 21–25 yr, and >60 yr) in selection system-logged hardwood forests in Algonquin Provincial Park, Ontario. Yellow-bellied sapsuckers preferred 1–5 year and >60-year-old cuts equally and more than 16–20 year and 21–25-year-old cuts. More-abundant arthropod food and/or higher-quality sap resources may have attracted yellow-bellied sapsuckers to 1–5 year and >60-year-old cuts. Only 52% of pairs raised fledglings in 1- to 5-year-old cuts during years when nest predation by American black bears (Ursus americanus) was common, the incidence of which was negatively related to increased availability of American beech (Fagus grandifolia) nuts from the previous autumn. By contrast, 88% of pairs raised fledglings in all years in >60-year-old cuts. One- to 5-year-old cuts were demographic sinks that represent equal-preference ecological traps in years when nest predation by bears was common, whereas >60-year-old cuts were always demographic sources. High-quality habitat cues for nesting yellow-bellied sapsuckers appear to be retained for 1–5 years after selection system logging but fail to deliver safe nest sites. Cavities excavated in heart-rot-infected nest trees are least likely to be depredated because cavity walls are typically harder and deter entry by depredating bears. Retaining more potential nest trees per ha at harvest (especially American beech with heart-rot) may increase the proportion of sapsucker nests that are excavated in bear-resistant trees, thereby reducing nest predation and increasing fecundity. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Breeding Phenology of Birds: Mechanisms Underlying Seasonal Declines in the Risk of Nest Predation

Seasonal declines in avian clutch size are well documented, but seasonal variation in other reproductive parameters has received less attention. For example, the probability of complete brood mortality typically explains much of the variation in reproductive success and often varies seasonally, but we know little about the underlying cause of that variation. This oversight is surprising given that nest predation influences many other life-history traits and varies throughout the breeding season in many songbirds. To determine the underlying causes of observed seasonal decreases in risk of nest predation, we modeled nest predation of Dusky Flycatchers (Empidonax oberholseri) in northern California as a function of foliage phenology, energetic demand, developmental stage, conspecific nest density, food availability for nest predators, and nest predator abundance. Seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was not associated with seasonal changes in energetic demand, conspecific nest density, or predator abundance. Instead, seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was associated with foliage density (early, but not late, in the breeding season) and seasonal changes in food available to nest predators. Supplemental food provided to nest predators resulted in a numerical response by nest predators, increasing the risk of nest predation at nests that were near supplemental feeders. Our results suggest that seasonal changes in foliage density and factors associated with changes in food availability for nest predators are important drivers of temporal patterns in risk of avian nest predation.     

Nestbox provisioning in a rural population of Eurasian Kestrels: breeding performance,nest predation and parasitism

The breeding biology of the Eurasian Kestrel Falco tinnunculusin nestboxes in farmland was studied to test for differences between artificial and natural sites. We report on the direct effect of nestbox provisioning on some life-history traits and how nestbox use affects nest predation and parasitism. Five types of nest-sites were available: nestboxes on poles and trees (artificial sites), stick nests on trees, stick nests on pylons and holes in buildings (‘natural’ sites). The Kestrel population increased from 23 pairs in 1993 (prior to nestbox installation) to 55 in 1998 as nestboxes were provided. In general, pairs breeding in trees started to lay later than those nesting in nestboxes on poles or in building holes, but this difference was probably associated with habitat quality rather than nest type. Differences in clutch size were found between nest-sites in some years, and were associated with laying date and, probably, with variation in territory quality. Using only data from successful nests, pairs breeding in nestboxes produce more fledglings than those in building holes or pylons. The frequency of nest predation was higher in natural sites than in nestboxes. The number of fledglings from pairs breeding in nestboxes was higher than from those breeding in old stick nests in trees when all nests were considered. Nestbox provisioning had no effect on the occurrence of the ectoparasite Carnus hemapterus, but chicks from nestboxes showed higher intensity of infection. Our results suggest that nestbox provisioning increases reproductive success and the frequency of nest predation or intensity of parasite infestation in Kestrels.     

Incidental nest predation in freshwater turtles: inter- and intraspecific differences in vulnerability are explained by relative crypsis

There has long been interest in the influence of predators on prey populations, although most predator–prey studies have focused on prey species that are targets of directed predator searching. Conversely, few have addressed depredation that occurs after incidental encounters with predators. We tested two predictions stemming from the hypothesis that nest predation on two sympatric freshwater turtle species whose nests are differentially prone to opportunistic detection—painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) and snapping turtles (Chelydra serpentina)—is incidental: (1) predation rates should be density independent, and (2) individual predators should not alter their foraging behavior after encountering nests. After monitoring nest survival and predator behavior following nest depredation over 2 years, we confirmed that predation by raccoons (Procyon lotor), the primary nest predators in our study area, matched both predictions. Furthermore, cryptic C. picta nests were victimized with lower frequency than more detectable C. serpentina nests, and nests of both species were more vulnerable in human-modified areas where opportunistic nest discovery is facilitated. Despite apparently being incidental, predation on nests of both species was intensive (57% for painted turtles, 84% for snapping turtles), and most depredations occurred within 1 day of nest establishment. By implication, predation need not be directed to affect prey demography, and factors influencing prey crypsis are drivers of the impact of incidental predation on prey. Our results also imply that efforts to conserve imperiled turtle populations in human-modified landscapes should include restoration of undisturbed conditions that are less likely to expose nests to incidental predators.     

Landscape features associated to wind farms increase mammalian predator abundance and ground-nest predation

Wind farm implementation is a rapidly growing source of landscape transformation that may alter ecological processes such as predator–prey interactions. We tested the hypothesis that wind farms increase the activity of nest predators and, ultimately, increment ground-nest predation rates. We placed 18 plots in Iberian shrub-steppes (11 at control and seven at wind farm sites), each one comprised nine artificial ground-nests (three quail eggs/nest). Artificial nests were placed during two events: at the beginning (April) and at the end (June) of the breeding season in 2016 (n?=?324 artificial nests). We estimated the relative abundance of avian and large mammalian predators in the surroundings of each plot and recorded nest fate after 12 days exposure. We also measured variables at landscape and microhabitat scale that potentially affect predator abundance and nest predation. Wind farm sites contained higher cover of gravel roads and more large mammalian predators. Moreover, the abundance of large mammalian predators increased with surrounding cover of both trees and gravel-roads. Avian predator abundance and nest predation rates did not differ between control and wind farm sites, though nest predation did increase with the surrounding cover of crops and gravel roads. Lastly, nest predation was higher at the end of the breeding season and decreased with moss and lichen cover. Our results support previous evidence on the increase of mammalian predator abundance as the surface area of gravel-roads increases, pointing towards a potential mechanism for wind farms leading to rise ground-nest predation. Future wind energy projects should minimize the development of gravel-roads for wind turbine access or maintenance.

     

Coping with Shifting Nest Predation Refuges by European Reed Warblers Acrocephalus scirpaceus

Predation, the most important source of nest mortality in altricial birds, has been a subject of numerous studies during past decades. However, the temporal dynamics between changing predation pressures and parental responses remain poorly understood. We analysed characteristics of 524 nests of European reed warblers monitored during six consecutive breeding seasons in the same area, and found some support for the shifting nest predation refuge hypothesis. Nest site characteristics were correlated with nest fate, but a nest with the same nest-site attributes could be relatively safe in one season and vulnerable to predation in another. Thus nest predation refuges were ephemeral and there was no between-season consistency in nest predation patterns. Reed warblers that lost their first nests in a given season did not disperse farther for the subsequent reproductive attempt, compared to successful individuals, but they introduced more changes to their second nest sites. In subsequent nests, predation risk remained constant for birds that changed nest-site characteristics, but increased for those that did not. At the between-season temporal scale, individual birds did not perform better with age in terms of reducing nest predation risk. We conclude that the experience acquired in previous years may not be useful, given that nest predation refuges are not stable.