Population augmentation had no effect on the abundance or body condition of conspecifics and co‐occurring lizard species in a native grassland community

Wildlife translocations have been historically plagued by failure. As more species gain endangered status, we must increase the success rate through use of pre‐emptive empirical, evidence‐based research. The main ecological risk is the potential for the relocated individuals to have competitive advantage at the recipient site, acting invasively and, potentially, outcompeting the native fauna for food, shelter or other resources. Here we investigated the ecological risk of increased population density, following a population augmentation of the pygmy bluetongue lizard (Tiliqua adelaidensis) an endangered lizard, endemic to South Australia. We experimentally increased T. adelaidensis density to ascertain if a sudden increase in T. adelaidensis density would negatively affect the abundance or body condition of the resident conspecifics and co‐existing lizard species found at the recipient site. Twenty‐four individuals, from two populations, were relocated into previously built enclosures at a recipient site in grassland habitat, north of Adelaide, South Australia. For one activity‐season pre and post the augmentation, co‐existing lizard species were sampled in an effort to detect any changes inabundance or body condition. Comparisons were also made between experimental enclosures, containing residents and translocated individuals and control enclosures, containing only residents. Using Menetia greyii as a proxy for all of the competing species, our results show there was no reduction in abundance or body condition post augmentation. Our lack of evidence indicating a negative impact of the T. adelaidensis translocation on the body condition and abundance of the resident lizard species is a positive outcome for future conservation of this species. This study provides a new way of approaching wildlife movements, through identification of potential risks using small‐scale translocations in an enclosed area before conducting large‐scale releases into unfenced areas; the results are intended to facilitate higher translocation success rates and limit the negative effects upon the wider ecological community at recipient sites.     

Evaluation of assisted colonization strategies under global change for a rare,fire‐dependent plant

As a clear consensus is emerging that habitat for many species will dramatically reduce or shift with climate change, attention is turning to adaptation strategies to address these impacts. Assisted colonization is one such strategy that has been predominantly discussed in terms of the costs of introducing potential competitors into new communities and the benefits of reducing extinction risk. However, the success or failure of assisted colonization will depend on a range of population‐level factors that have not yet been quantitatively evaluated – the quality of the recipient habitat, the number and life stages of translocated individuals, the establishment of translocated individuals in their new habitat and whether the recipient habitat is subject to ongoing threats all will play an important role in population persistence. In this article, we do not take one side or the other in the debate over whether assisted colonization is worthwhile. Rather, we focus on the likelihood that assisted colonization will promote population persistence in the face of climate‐induced distribution changes and altered fire regimes for a rare endemic species. We link a population model with species distribution models to investigate expected changes in populations with climate change, the impact of altered fire regimes on population persistence and how much assisted colonization is necessary to minimize risk of decline in populations of Tecate cypress, a rare endemic tree in the California Floristic Province, a biodiversity hotspot. We show that assisted colonization may be a risk‐minimizing adaptation strategy when there are large source populations that are declining dramatically due to habitat contractions, multiple nearby sites predicted to contain suitable habitat, minimal natural dispersal, high rates of establishment of translocated populations and the absence of nonclimatic threats such as altered disturbance regimes. However, when serious ongoing threats exist, assisted colonization is ineffective.     

Plant extinction risk under climate change: are forecast range shifts alone a good indicator of species vulnerability to global warming?

Models that couple habitat suitability with demographic processes offer a potentially improved approach for estimating spatial distributional shifts and extinction risk under climate change. Applying such an approach to five species of Australian plants with contrasting demographic traits, we show that: (i) predicted climate‐driven changes in range area are sensitive to the underlying habitat model, regardless of whether demographic traits and their interaction with habitat patch configuration are modeled explicitly; and (ii) caution should be exercised when using predicted changes in total habitat suitability or geographic extent to infer extinction risk, because the relationship between these metrics is often weak. Measures of extinction risk, which quantify threats to population persistence, are particularly sensitive to life‐history traits, such as recruitment response to fire, which explained approximately 60% of the deviance in expected minimum abundance. Dispersal dynamics and habitat patch structure have the strongest influence on the amount of movement of the trailing and leading edge of the range margin, explaining roughly 40% of modeled structural deviance. These results underscore the need to consider direct measures of extinction risk (population declines and other measures of stochastic viability), as well as measures of change in habitat area, when assessing climate change impacts on biodiversity. Furthermore, direct estimation of extinction risk incorporates important demographic and ecosystem processes, which potentially influence species’ vulnerability to extinction due to climate change.     

Maintaining historic disturbance regimes increases species' resilience to catastrophic hurricanes

As habitat loss and fragmentation, urbanization, and global climate change accelerate, conservation of rare ecosystems increasingly relies on human intervention. However, any conservation strategy is vulnerable to unpredictable, catastrophic events. Whether active management increases or decreases a system's resilience to these events remains unknown. Following Hurricane Irma's landfall in our habitat restoration study sites, we found that rare ecosystems with active, human‐imposed management suffered less damage in a hurricane's path than unmanaged systems. At the center of Irma's landfall, we found Croton linearis' (a locally rare plant that is the sole host for two endangered butterfly species) survival and population growth rates in the year of the hurricane were higher in previously managed plots than in un‐managed controls. In the periphery of Irma's circulation, the effect of prior management was stronger than that of the hurricane. Maintaining the historical disturbance regime thus increased the resilience of the population to major hurricane disturbance. As climate change increases the probability and intensity of severe hurricanes, human management of disturbance‐adapted landscapes will become increasingly important for maintaining populations of threatened species in a storm's path. Doing nothing will accelerate extinction.     

Assisted colonization as a climate change adaptation tool

Assisted colonization is a form of conservation translocation which introduces species at risk from extinction to new habitats, beyond their current range, in anticipation of more suitable conditions. Identifying which species, communities and ecosystems may benefit most from assisted colonization in coming decades is a key goal for conservation. Climate change is expected to lead to the loss or movement of suitable habitat for a range of species and anticipating which can be effectively conserved through assisted colonization is critical. Here, we identify a series of scenarios that may predispose terrestrial species to the need for assisted colonization in order to reduce extinction risk resulting from anthropogenic climate change and assemble a list of traits commonly associated with at‐risk species. These traits may help to provide broad‐scale guidance on how to select species to target for assisted colonization as a conservation management response to climate change. We also identify six key themes associated with successful conservation translocations including recipient site selection and preparation, a clear understanding of species biology and ecology, and taking lessons from invasive species research.     

Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long‐term population viability of the conservation‐reliant Kirtland's Warbler

Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long‐term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population‐level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long‐term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species.     

Effects of landscape and patch-level attributes on regional population persistence

Species responses are influenced by processes operating at multiple scales, yet many conservation studies and management actions are focused on a single scale. Although landscape-level habitat conditions (i.e., habitat amount, fragmentation and landscape quality) are likely to drive the regional persistence of spatially structured populations, patch-level factors (i.e., patch size, isolation, and quality) may also be important. To determine the spatial scales at which habitat factors influence the regional persistence of endangered Ord's kangaroo rats (Dipodomys ordii) in Alberta, Canada, we simulated population dynamics under a range of habitat conditions. Using a spatially-explicit population model, we removed groups of habitat patches based on their characteristics and measured the resulting time to extinction. We used proportional hazards models to rank the influence of landscape and interacting patch-level variables. Landscape quality was the most influential variable followed by patch quality, with both outweighing landscape- and patch-level measures of habitat quantity and fragmentation/proximity. Although habitat conservation and restoration priorities for this population should be in maximizing the overall quality of the landscape, population persistence depends on how this goal is achieved. Patch quality exerted a significant influence on regional persistence, with the removal of low quality road margin patches (sinks) reducing the risk of regional extinction. Strategies for maximizing overall landscape quality that omit patch-level considerations may produce suboptimal or detrimental results for regional population persistence, particularly where complex local population dynamics (e.g., source-sink dynamics) exist. This study contributes to a growing body literature that suggests that the prediction of species responses and future conservation actions may best be assessed with a multi-scale approach that considers habitat quality and that the success of conservation actions may depend on assessing the influences of habitat factors at multiple scales.     

Assessing Extinction Risk in Small Metapopulations of Golden‐headed Lion Tamarins (Leontopithecus chrysomelas) in Bahia State,Brazil

Golden‐headed lion tamarins (GHLTs; Leontopithecus chrysomelas) are endangered primates endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, where loss of forest and its connectivity threaten species survival. Understanding the role of habitat availability and configuration on population declines is critical for guiding proactive conservation for this, and other, endangered species. We conducted population viability analysis to assess vulnerability of ten GHLT metapopulations to habitat loss and small population size. Seven metapopulations had a low risk of extirpation (or local extinction) over the next 100 years assuming no further forest loss, and even small populations could persist with immediate protection. Three metapopulations had a moderate/high risk of extirpation, suggesting extinction debt may be evident in parts of the species’ range. When deforestation was assumed to continue at current rates, extirpation risk significantly increased while abundance and genetic diversity decreased for all metapopulations. Extirpation risk was significantly negatively correlated with the size of the largest patch available to metapopulations, underscoring the importance of large habitat patches for species persistence. Finally, we conducted sensitivity analysis using logistic regression, and our results showed that local extinction risk was sensitive to percentage of females breeding, adult female mortality, and dispersal rate and survival; conservation or research programs that target these aspects of the species’ biology/ecology could have a disproportionately important impact on species survival. We stress that efforts to protect populations and tracts of habitat of sufficient size throughout the species’ distribution will be important in the near‐term to protect the species from continuing decline and extinction.     

Stepping into the past to conserve the future: Archived skin swabs from extant and extirpated populations inform genetic management of an endangered amphibian

Moving animals on a landscape through translocations and reintroductions is an important management tool used in the recovery of endangered species, particularly for the maintenance of population genetic diversity and structure. Management of imperiled amphibian species rely heavily on translocations and reintroductions, especially for species that have been brought to the brink of extinction by habitat loss, introduced species, and disease. One striking example of amphibian declines and associated management efforts is in California's Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks with the mountain yellow‐legged frog species complex (Rana sierrae/muscosa). Mountain yellow‐legged frogs have been extirpated from more than 93% of their historic range, and limited knowledge of their population genetics has made long‐term conservation planning difficult. To address this, we used 598 archived skin swabs from both extant and extirpated populations across 48 lake basins to generate a robust Illumina‐based nuclear amplicon data set. We found that samples grouped into three main genetic clusters, concordant with watershed boundaries. We also found evidence for historical gene flow across watershed boundaries with a north‐to‐south axis of migration. Finally, our results indicate that genetic diversity is not significantly different between populations with different disease histories. Our study offers specific management recommendations for imperiled mountain yellow‐legged frogs and, more broadly, provides a population genetic framework for leveraging minimally invasive samples for the conservation of threatened species.     

Niche models tell half the story: spatial context and life‐history traits influence species responses to global change

Aim While niche models are typically used to assess the vulnerability of species to climate change, they have been criticized for their limited assessment of threats other than climate change. We attempt to evaluate this limitation by combining niche models with life‐history models to investigate the relative influence of climate change and a range of fire regimes on the viability of a long‐lived plant population. Specifically, we investigate whether range shift due to climate change is a greater threat to an obligate seeding fire‐prone shrub than altered fire frequency and how these two threatening processes might interact. Location Australian sclerophyll woodland and heathland. Methods The study species is Leucopogon setiger, an obligate seeding fire‐prone shrub. A spatially explicit stochastic matrix model was constructed for this species and linked with a dynamic niche model and fire risk functions representing a suite of average fire return intervals. We compared scenarios with a variety of hypothetical patches, a patch framework based upon current habitat suitability and one with dynamic habitat suitability based on climate change scenarios A1FI and A2. Results Leucopogon setiger was found to be sensitive to fire frequency, with shorter intervals reducing expected minimum abundances (EMAs). Spatial decoupling of fires across the landscape reduced the vulnerability of the species to shortened fire frequencies. Shifting habitat, while reducing EMAs, was less of a threat to the species than frequent fire. Main conclusions Altered fire regime, in particular more frequent fires relative to the historical regime, was predicted to be a strong threat to this species, which may reflect a vulnerability of obligate seeders in general. Range shifts induced by climate change were a secondary threat when habitat reductions were predicted. Incorporating life‐history traits into habitat suitability models by linking species distribution models with population models allowed for the population‐level evaluation of multiple stressors that affect population dynamics and habitat, ultimately providing a greater understanding of the impacts of global change than would be gained by niche models alone. Further investigations of this type could elucidate how particular bioecological factors can affect certain types of species under global change.     

Alpine glacial relict species losing out to climate change: The case of the fragmented mountain hare population (Lepus timidus) in the Alps

Alpine and Arctic species are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change, which is expected to cause habitat loss, fragmentation and—ultimately—extinction of cold‐adapted species. However, the impact of climate change on glacial relict populations is not well understood, and specific recommendations for adaptive conservation management are lacking. We focused on the mountain hare (Lepus timidus) as a model species and modelled species distribution in combination with patch and landscape‐based connectivity metrics. They were derived from graph‐theory models to quantify changes in species distribution and to estimate the current and future importance of habitat patches for overall population connectivity. Models were calibrated based on 1,046 locations of species presence distributed across three biogeographic regions in the Swiss Alps and extrapolated according to two IPCC scenarios of climate change (RCP 4.5 & 8.5), each represented by three downscaled global climate models. The models predicted an average habitat loss of 35% (22%–55%) by 2100, mainly due to an increase in temperature during the reproductive season. An increase in habitat fragmentation was reflected in a 43% decrease in patch size, a 17% increase in the number of habitat patches and a 34% increase in inter‐patch distance. However, the predicted changes in habitat availability and connectivity varied considerably between biogeographic regions: Whereas the greatest habitat losses with an increase in inter‐patch distance were predicted at the southern and northern edges of the species’ Alpine distribution, the greatest increase in patch number and decrease in patch size is expected in the central Swiss Alps. Finally, both the number of isolated habitat patches and the number of patches crucial for maintaining the habitat network increased under the different variants of climate change. Focusing conservation action on the central Swiss Alps may help mitigate the predicted effects of climate change on population connectivity.     

Asynchronization of local population dynamics and persistence of a metapopulation: a lesson from an endangered composite plant, Aster kantoensis

Fragmentation of a large habitat makes local populations less linked to others, and a whole population structure changes to a metapopulation. The smaller a local population is, the more strengthened extinction factors become. Then, frequent extinctions of local populations threaten persistence of the metapopulation unless recolonizations occur rapidly enough after local extinctions. Spatially structured models have been more widely used for predicting future population dynamics and for assessing the extinction risk of a metapopulation. In this article, we first review such spatially structured models that have been applied to conservation biology, focusing on effects of asynchronization among local population dynamics on persistence of the whole metapopulation. Second, we introduce our ongoing project on extinction risk assessment of an endangered composite biennial plant, Aster kantoensis, in the riverside habitat, based on a lattice model for describing its spatiotemporal population dynamics. The model predicted that the extinction risk of A. kantoensis depends on both the frequency of flood occurrence and the time to coverage of a local habitat by other competitively stronger perennials. Finally, we present a measure (Hassell and Pacala's CV ²) for quantifying the effect of asynchronization among local population dynamics on the persistence of a whole metapopulation in conservation ecology. Received: January 12, 2000 / Accepted: February 8, 2000     

Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models

Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.     

Parasite in peril? A new species of mite in the genus Ophiomegistus Banks (Parasitiformes: Paramegistidae) on an endangered host,the pygmy bluetongue lizard Tiliqua adelaidensis (Peters) (Squamata: Scincidae)

Host‐parasite relationships are generally understudied in wild populations but have a potential to influence host population dynamics and the broader ecosystem, which becomes particularly important when the host is endangered. Herein we describe a new species of parasitic mite from the genus Ophiomegistus (Parasitiformes: Mesostigmata: Paramegistidae) of an endangered South Australian skink; the pygmy bluetongue lizard (Tiliqua adelaidensis). Adult mites were observed on lizard hosts in three different host populations, among which prevalence varied. No temporal trend in prevalence was evident over two spring‐summer seasons of monitoring. We hypothesise that the reliance on burrows as refuges by T. adelaidensis may be essential for the completion of the mite life cycle and also for horizontal transmission. The conservation implications of not only its effect on the host, but also its potential status as an endangered species itself, are considered.     

Projecting impacts of global climate and land‐use scenarios on plant biodiversity using compositional‐turnover modelling

Nations have committed to ambitious conservation targets in response to accelerating rates of global biodiversity loss. Anticipating future impacts is essential to inform policy decisions for achieving these targets, but predictions need to be of sufficiently high spatial resolution to forecast the local effects of global change. As part of the intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models of the Intergovernmental Science‐Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, we present a fine‐resolution assessment of trends in the persistence of global plant biodiversity. We coupled generalized dissimilarity models, fitted to >52 million records of >254 thousand plant species, with the species–area relationship, to estimate the effect of land‐use and climate change on global biodiversity persistence. We estimated that the number of plant species committed to extinction over the long term has increased by 60% globally between 1900 and 2015 (from ~10,000 to ~16,000). This number is projected to decrease slightly by 2050 under the most optimistic scenario of land‐use change and to substantially increase (to ~18,000) under the most pessimistic scenario. This means that, in the absence of climate change, scenarios of sustainable socio‐economic development can potentially bring extinction risk back to pre‐2000 levels. Alarmingly, under all scenarios, the additional impact from climate change might largely surpass that of land‐use change. In this case, the estimated number of species committed to extinction increases by 3.7–4.5 times compared to land‐use‐only projections. African regions (especially central and southern) are expected to suffer some of the highest impacts into the future, while biodiversity decline in Southeast Asia (which has previously been among the highest globally) is projected to slow down. Our results suggest that environmentally sustainable land‐use planning alone might not be sufficient to prevent potentially dramatic biodiversity loss, unless a stabilization of climate to pre‐industrial times is observed.     

Potential loss of genetic variability despite well established network of reserves: the case of the Iberian endemic lizard <Emphasis Type="Italic">Lacerta schreiberi</Emphasis>

Although future anthropogenic climate change is recognized as one of the major threats to European species, its implementation during reserve planning has only been started recently. We here describe climate change impacts on the Iberian endemic lizard Lacerta schreiberi expecting serious declines and range reductions due to a loss of suitable climate space in the next future. We apply species distribution models to assess possible future changes in the lizard’s range, identify areas with high extinction risk meriting conservation efforts and analyze whether the Natura 2000 network in its current stage will offer a sufficient protection for the genetically most valuable lineages. Despite a very good coverage and connectivity of the most valuable populations of L. schreiberi with the existing protected sites network, our results predict a strong loss of genetic variability by 2080. Also, two main patterns become evident: While the genetically less diverse north-western populations may be less affected by climate change, the climate change effects on the southern isolates and the genetically most diverse populations within the Central System may be devastating. To improve a successful prospective conservation of L. schreiberi the management of protected sites needs to consider the processes that threaten this species. Furthermore, our study highlights the urgent need to consider climate change effects on evolutionary significant units within the Natura 2000 framework.     

Tools for integrating range change,extinction risk and climate change information into conservation management

Ecological niche models (ENMs) are the primary tool used to describe and forecast the potential influence of climate change on biodiversity. However, ENMs do not directly account for important biological and landscape processes likely to affect range dynamics at a variety of spatial scales. Recent advances to link ENMs with population models have focused on the fundamental step of integrating dispersal and metapopulation dynamics into forecasts of species geographic ranges. Here we use a combination of novel analyses and a synthesis of findings from published plant and animal case studies to highlight three seldom recognised, yet important, advantages of linking ENMs with demographic modelling approaches: 1) they provide direct measures of extinction risk in addition to measures of vulnerability based on change in the potential range area or total habitat suitability. 2) They capture life‐history traits that permit population density to vary in different ways in response to key spatial drivers, conditioned by the processes of global change. 3) They can be used to explore and rank the cost effectiveness of regional conservation alternatives and demographically oriented management interventions. Given these advantages, we argue that coupled methods should be used preferentially where data permits and when conservation management decisions require intervention, prioritization, or direct estimates of extinction risk.     

Integrating bioclimate with population models to improve forecasts of species extinctions under climate change

Climate change is already affecting species worldwide, yet existing methods of risk assessment have not considered interactions between demography and climate and their simultaneous effect on habitat distribution and population viability. To address this issue, an international workshop was held at the University of Adelaide in Australia, 25–29 May 2009, bringing leading species distribution and population modellers together with plant ecologists. Building on two previous workshops in the UK and Spain, the participants aimed to develop methodological standards and case studies for integrating bioclimatic and metapopulation models, to provide more realistic forecasts of population change, habitat fragmentation and extinction risk under climate change. The discussions and case studies focused on several challenges, including spatial and temporal scale contingencies, choice of predictive climate, land use, soil type and topographic variables, procedures for ensemble forecasting of both global climate and bioclimate models and developing demographic structures that are realistic and species-specific and yet allow generalizations of traits that make species vulnerable to climate change. The goal is to provide general guidelines for assessing the Red-List status of large numbers of species potentially at risk, owing to the interactions of climate change with other threats such as habitat destruction, overexploitation and invasive species.     

The impact of climate change measured at relevant spatial scales: new hope for tropical lizards

Much attention has been given to recent predictions that widespread extinctions of tropical ectotherms, and tropical forest lizards in particular, will result from anthropogenic climate change. Most of these predictions, however, are based on environmental temperature data measured at a maximum resolution of 1 km², whereas individuals of most species experience thermal variation on a much finer scale. To address this disconnect, we combined thermal performance curves for five populations of Anolis lizard from the Bay Islands of Honduras with high‐resolution temperature distributions generated from physical models. Previous research has suggested that open‐habitat species are likely to invade forest habitat and drive forest species to extinction. We test this hypothesis, and compare the vulnerabilities of closely related, but allopatric, forest species. Our data suggest that the open‐habitat populations we studied will not invade forest habitat and may actually benefit from predicted warming for many decades. Conversely, one of the forest species we studied should experience reduced activity time as a result of warming, while two others are unlikely to experience a significant decline in performance. Our results suggest that global‐scale predictions generated using low‐resolution temperature data may overestimate the vulnerability of many tropical ectotherms to climate change.     

Population Dynamics of the Andean Lizard Anolis heterodermus: Fast‐slow Demographic Strategies in Fragmented Scrubland Landscapes

Habitat fragmentation and loss affect population stability and demographic processes, increasing the extinction risk of species. We studied Anolis heterodermus populations inhabiting large and small Andean scrubland patches in three fragmented landscapes in the Sabana de Bogotá (Colombia) to determine the effect of habitat fragmentation and loss on population dynamics. We used the capture‐mark‐recapture method and multistate models to estimate vital rates for each population. We estimated growth population rate and the most important processes that affect λ by elasticity analysis of vital rates. We tested the effects of habitat fragmentation and loss on vital rates of lizard populations. All six isolated populations showed a positive or an equilibrium growth rate (λ = 1), and the most important demographic process affecting λ was the growth to first reproduction. Populations from landscapes with less scrubland natural cover showed higher stasis of young adults. Populations in highly fragmented landscapes showed highest juvenile survival and growth population rates. Independent of the landscape's habitat configuration and connectivity, populations from larger scrubland patches showed low adult survivorship, but high transition rates. Populations varied from a slow strategy with low growth and delayed maturation in smaller patches to a fast strategy with high growth and early maturation in large patches. This variation was congruent with the fast‐slow continuum hypothesis and has serious implications for Andean lizard conservation and management strategies. We suggest that more stable lizard populations will be maintained if different management strategies are adopted according to patch area and habitat structure.