Insect occurrence in agricultural land-uses depends on realized niche and geographic range properties

Geographic range size predicts species’ responses to land-use change and intensification, but the reason why is not well established because many correlates of larger geographic ranges, such as realized niche breadth, may mediate species’ responses to environmental change. Agricultural land uses (hereafter ‘agroecosystems’) have warm, dry and more variable microclimates than do cooler and wetter mature forests, so are predicted to filter for species that have warmer, drier and broader fundamental and realized niches. To test these predictions, we estimated species’ realized niches, for temperature and precipitation, and geographic range sizes of 764 insect species by matching GBIF occurrence records to global climate layers, and modelled how species presence/absence in mature forest and nearby agroecosystems depend on species’ realized niches or geographic ranges. The predicted species niche effects consistently matched the expected direction of microclimatic transition from mature forest to agroecosystems. We found a clear signal that species with preference for warmer and drier climates were more likely to be present in agroecosystems. In addition, the probability that species occurred in different land-use types was predicted better by species’ realized niche than their geographic range size. However, niche effects are often context-dependent and varied amongst studies, taxonomic groups and regions used in this analysis: predicting which particular aspects of species’ realized niche cause sensitivity to land-use change, and the underpinning mechanisms, remains a major challenge for future research and multiple components of species’ realized niches may be important to consider. Using realized niches derived from open-source occurrence records can be a simple and widely applicable tool to help identify when biodiversity responds to the microclimate component of land-use change.     

A socio‐ecological model for predicting impacts of land‐use and climate change on regional plant diversity in the Austrian Alps

Climate and land‐use change jointly affect the future of biodiversity. Yet, biodiversity scenarios have so far concentrated on climatic effects because forecasts of land use are rarely available at appropriate spatial and thematic scales. Agent‐based models (ABMs) represent a potentially powerful but little explored tool for establishing thematically and spatially fine‐grained land‐use scenarios. Here, we use an ABM parameterized for 1,329 agents, mostly farmers, in a Central European model region, and simulate the changes to land‐use patterns resulting from their response to three scenarios of changing socio‐economic conditions and three scenarios of climate change until the mid of the century. Subsequently, we use species distribution models to, first, analyse relationships between the realized niches of 832 plant species and climatic gradients or land‐use types, respectively, and, second, to project consequent changes in potential regional ranges of these species as triggered by changes in both the altered land‐use patterns and the changing climate. We find that both drivers determine the realized niches of the studied plants, with land use having a stronger effect than any single climatic variable in the model. Nevertheless, the plants' future distributions appear much more responsive to climate than to land‐use changes because alternative future socio‐economic backgrounds have only modest impact on land‐use decisions in the model region. However, relative effects of climate and land‐use changes on biodiversity may differ drastically in other regions, especially where landscapes are still dominated by natural or semi‐natural habitat. We conclude that agent‐based modelling of land use is able to provide scenarios at scales relevant to individual species distribution and suggest that coupling ABMs with models of species' range change should be intensified to provide more realistic biodiversity forecasts.     

Scaling between macro- to microscale climatic data reveals strong phylogenetic inertia in niche evolution in plethodontid salamanders

Macroclimatic niches are indirect and potentially inadequate predictors of the realized environmental conditions that many species experience. Consequently, analyses of niche evolution based on macroclimatic data alone may incompletely represent the evolutionary dynamics of species niches. Yet, understanding how an organisms’ climatic (Grinnellian) niche responds to changing macroclimatic conditions is of vital importance for predicting their potential response to global change. In this study, we integrate microclimatic and macroclimatic data across 26 species of plethodontid salamanders to portray the relationship between microclimatic niche evolution in response to changing macroclimate. We demonstrate stronger phylogenetic signal in microclimatic niche variables than at the macroclimatic scale. Even so, we find that the microclimatic niche tracks climatic changes at the macroscale, but with a phylogenetic lag at million-year timescales. We hypothesize that behavioral tracking of the microclimatic niche over space and phenology generates the lag: salamanders preferentially select microclimates similar to their ancestral conditions rather than adapting with changes in physiology. We demonstrate that macroclimatic variables are weak predictors of niche evolution and that incorporating spatial scale into analyses of niche evolution is critical for predicting responses to climate change.     

Scale dependence of temperature as an abiotic driver of species' distributions

Aim Scale dependence of patterns and processes remains one of the major unresolved problems in ecology. The responses of ecosystems to environmental stressors are reported to be strongly scale dependent, but projections of the effects of climate change on species' distributions are still restricted to particular scales and knowledge about scale dependence is lacking. Here we propose that the scale dependence of those species' niche dimensions related to climate change is strongly related to the strength of climatic cross‐scale links. More specifically, we hypothesize that the strong cross‐scale links between micro‐ and macroclimatic conditions are related to high cross‐scale similarity (low scale dependence) of species' realized temperature niches and, thus, species' spatial distributions. Location This study covers seven orders of magnitude of spatial scale, ranging from local‐scale (below a metre) and regional‐scale (kilometre) investigations in central European wetland ecosystems to continental‐scale (thousands of kilometres) studies of species' distributions. Methods We combined data on the spatial occurrence of species (vegetation records at local and regional scales, digitized distribution maps at the continental scale) with information about the corresponding temperature regime of vascular plant species occurring in environmentally stable wetland ecosystems characterized by strong cross‐scale links between micro‐ and macroclimatic conditions. Results We observed high cross‐scale similarity of the characteristics of species temperature niches across seven orders of magnitude of spatial scale. However, the importance of temperature as an abiotic driver decreased nonlinearly with decreasing scale, suggesting greater importance of additional (biotic) drivers of species' occurrence at small spatial scales. Main conclusions We report high cross‐scale similarity of realized temperature niches for species inhabiting ecosystems where small‐scale environmental noise is low and cross‐scale links between micro‐ and macroclimatic conditions are strong. By highlighting a strong relationship between abiotic and biotic cross‐scale similarity, our results will help to improve niche‐based species distribution modelling, one of the major assessment tools for determining the ecological effects of climate change.     

High land‐use intensity exacerbates shifts in grassland vegetation composition after severe experimental drought

Climate change projections anticipate increased frequency and intensity of drought stress, but grassland responses to severe droughts and their potential to recover are poorly understood. In many grasslands, high land‐use intensity has enhanced productivity and promoted resource‐acquisitive species at the expense of resource‐conservative ones. Such changes in plant functional composition could affect the resistance to drought and the recovery after drought of grassland ecosystems with consequences for feed productivity resilience and environmental stewardship. In a 12‐site precipitation exclusion experiment in upland grassland ecosystems across Switzerland, we imposed severe edaphic drought in plots under rainout shelters and compared them with plots under ambient conditions. We used soil water potentials to scale drought stress across sites. Impacts of precipitation exclusion and drought legacy effects were examined along a gradient of land‐use intensity to determine how grasslands resisted to, and recovered after drought. In the year of precipitation exclusion, aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in plots under rainout shelters was ?15% to ?56% lower than in control plots. Drought effects on ANPP increased with drought severity, specified as duration of topsoil water potential ψ < ?100 kPa, irrespective of land‐use intensity. In the year after drought, ANPP had completely recovered, but total species diversity had declined by ?10%. Perennial species showed elevated mortality, but species richness of annuals showed a small increase due to enhanced recruitment. In general, the more resource‐acquisitive grasses increased at the expense of the deeper‐rooted forbs after drought, suggesting that community reorganization was driven by competition rather than plant mortality. The negative effects of precipitation exclusion on forbs increased with land‐use intensity. Our study suggests a synergistic impact of land‐use intensification and climate change on grassland vegetation composition, and implies that biomass recovery after drought may occur at the expense of biodiversity maintenance.     

Climate change and habitat conversion favour the same species

Land‐use change and climate change are driving a global biodiversity crisis. Yet, how species' responses to climate change are correlated with their responses to land‐use change is poorly understood. Here, we assess the linkages between climate and land‐use change on birds in Neotropical forest and agriculture. Across > 300 species, we show that affiliation with drier climates is associated with an ability to persist in and colonise agriculture. Further, species shift their habitat use along a precipitation gradient: species prefer forest in drier regions, but use agriculture more in wetter zones. Finally, forest‐dependent species that avoid agriculture are most likely to experience decreases in habitable range size if current drying trends in the Neotropics continue as predicted. This linkage suggests a synergy between the primary drivers of biodiversity loss. Because they favour the same species, climate and land‐use change will likely homogenise biodiversity more severely than otherwise anticipated.     

Range and niche shifts in response to past climate change in the desert horned lizard Phrynosoma platyrhinos

During climate change, species are often assumed to shift their geographic distributions (geographic ranges) in order to track environmental conditions – niches – to which they are adapted. Recent work, however, suggests that the niches do not always remain conserved during climate change but shift instead, allowing populations to persist in place or expand into new areas. We assessed the extent of range and niche shifts in response to the warming climate after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the desert horned lizard Phrynosoma platyrhinos, a species occupying the western deserts of North America. We used a phylogeographic approach with mitochondrial DNA sequences to approximate the species range during the LGM by identifying populations that exhibit a genetic signal of population stability versus those that exhibit a signal of a recent (likely post‐LGM) geographic expansion. We then compared the climatic niche that the species occupies today with the niche it occupied during the LGM using two models of simulated LGM climate. The genetic analyses indicated that P. platyrhinos persisted within the southern Mojave and Sonoran deserts throughout the latest glacial period and expanded from these deserts northwards, into the western and eastern Great Basin, after the LGM. The climatic niche comparisons revealed that P. platyrhinos expanded its climatic niche after the LGM towards novel, warmer and drier climates that allowed it to persist within the southern deserts. Simultaneously, the species shifted its climatic niche towards greater temperature and precipitation fluctuations after the LGM. We concluded that climatic changes at the end of the LGM promoted both range and niche shifts in this lizard. The mechanism that allowed the species to shift its niche remains unknown, but phenotypic plasticity likely contributes to the species ability to adjust to climate change.     

Climatic niche divergence and habitat suitability of eight alien invasive weeds in China under climate change

Testing climatic niche divergence and modeling habitat suitability under conditions of climate change are important for developing strategies to limit the introduction and expansion of alien invasive weeds (AIWs) and providing important ecological and evolutionary insights. We assessed climatic niches in both native and invasive ranges as well as habitat suitability under climate change for eight representative Chinese AIWs from the American continent. We used climatic variables associated with occurrence records and developed ecological niche models with Maxent. Interestingly, the climatic niches of all eight AIWs diverged significantly between the native and invasive ranges (the American continent and China). Furthermore, the AIWs showed larger climatic niche breadths in the invasive ranges than in the native ranges. Our results suggest that climatic niche shifts between native and invasive ranges occurred. Thus, the occurrence records of both native and invasive regions must be considered when modeling and predicting the spatial distributions of AIWs under current and future climate scenarios. Owing to high habitat suitability, AIWs were more likely to expand into regions of low latitude, and future climate change was predicted to result in a shift in the AIWs in Qinghai and Tibet (regions of higher altitude) as well as Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu (regions of higher latitude). Our results suggest that we need measures to prevent and control AIW expansion at the country‐wide level.     

Beyond just sea‐level rise: considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change

Due to their position at the land‐sea interface, coastal wetlands are vulnerable to many aspects of climate change. However, climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands generally focus solely on sea‐level rise without considering the effects of other facets of climate change. Across the globe and in all ecosystems, macroclimatic drivers (e.g., temperature and rainfall regimes) greatly influence ecosystem structure and function. Macroclimatic drivers have been the focus of climate change‐related threat evaluations for terrestrial ecosystems, but largely ignored for coastal wetlands. In some coastal wetlands, changing macroclimatic conditions are expected to result in foundation plant species replacement, which would affect the supply of certain ecosystem goods and services and could affect ecosystem resilience. As examples, we highlight several ecological transition zones where small changes in macroclimatic conditions would result in comparatively large changes in coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. Our intent in this communication is not to minimize the importance of sea‐level rise. Rather, our overarching aim is to illustrate the need to also consider macroclimatic drivers within vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands.     

Differentiating drought legacy effects on vegetation growth over the temperate Northern Hemisphere

In view of future changes in climate, it is important to better understand how different plant functional groups (PFGs) respond to warmer and drier conditions, particularly in temperate regions where an increase in both the frequency and severity of drought is expected. The patterns and mechanisms of immediate and delayed impacts of extreme drought on vegetation growth remain poorly quantified. Using satellite measurements of vegetation greenness, in‐situ tree‐ring records, eddy‐covariance CO₂ and water flux measurements, and meta‐analyses of source water of plant use among PFGs, we show that drought legacy effects on vegetation growth differ markedly between forests, shrubs and grass across diverse bioclimatic conditions over the temperate Northern Hemisphere. Deep?rooted forests exhibit a drought legacy response with reduced growth during up to 4 years after an extreme drought, whereas shrubs and grass have drought legacy effects of approximately 2 years and 1 year, respectively. Statistical analyses partly attribute the differences in drought legacy effects among PFGs to plant eco‐hydrological properties (related to traits), including plant water use and hydraulic responses. These results can be used to improve the representation of drought response of different PFGs in land surface models, and assess their biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks in response to a warmer and drier climate.     

Why Would Plant Species Become Extinct Locally If Growing Conditions Improve?

Two assumptions underlie current models of the geographical ranges of perennial plant species: 1. current ranges are in equilibrium with the prevailing climate, and 2. changes are attributable to changes in macroclimatic factors, including tolerance of winter cold, the duration of the growing season, and water stress during the growing season, rather than to biotic interactions. These assumptions allow model parameters to be estimated from current species ranges. Deterioration of growing conditions due to climate change, e.g. more severe drought, will cause local extinction. However, for many plant species, the predicted climate change of higher minimum temperatures and longer growing seasons means, improved growing conditions. Biogeographical models may under some circumstances predict that a species will become locally extinct, despite improved growing conditions, because they are based on an assumption of equilibrium and this forces the species range to match the species-specific macroclimatic thresholds. We argue that such model predictions should be rejected unless there is evidence either that competition influences the position of the range margins or that a certain physiological mechanism associated with the apparent improvement in growing conditions negatively affects the species performance. We illustrate how a process-based vegetation model can be used to ascertain whether such a physiological cause exists. To avoid potential modelling errors of this type, we propose a method that constrains the scenario predictions of the envelope models by changing the geographical distribution of the dominant plant functional type. Consistent modelling results are very important for evaluating how changes in species areas affect local functional trait diversity and hence ecosystem functioning and resilience, and for inferring the implications for conservation management in the face of climate change.     

Interrogating recent range changes in South African birds: confounding signals from land use and climate change present a challenge for attribution

Aim Apparent anthropogenic warming has been underway in South Africa for several decades, a period over which significant range shifts have been observed in some indigenous bird species. We asked whether these range shifts by birds are clearly consistent with either climate change or land use change being the primary driver. Location South Africa. Methods We categorized recent range changes among 408 South African terrestrial bird species and, using generalized linear mixed models, analysed ecological attributes of those species that have and have not changed their ranges. Results Fifty‐six of the 408 taxa studied have undergone significant range shifts. Most extended their ranges towards the south (towards cooler latitudes, consistent with climate‐change drivers) or west (towards drier and warmer habitats, inconsistent with climate drivers but consistent with land use drivers); very few moved east or north. Both southward and westward movers were habitat generalists. Furthermore, southward movers were mobile taxa (migrants and nomads), whereas westward movers were associated with human‐modified elements in the landscape, such as croplands, plantations or buildings. Main conclusions The results suggest that both land use changes and climate change may simultaneously be influencing dynamic range shifts by South African birds, but separating the relative strengths of these two drivers is challenging, not least because both are operating concurrently and may influence some species simultaneously. Those species that respond to land use change by contracting their ranges are likely to be among the species that will be most impacted by climate change if land use practices with negative impacts are occurring in areas anticipated to become climatic refugia for these species. This highlights a pressing need to develop dynamic models of species’ potential range shifts and changing abundances that incorporate population and dispersal processes, as well as ecological processes that influence habitat suitability.     

Oak seedling survival and growth along resource gradients in Mediterranean forests: implications for regeneration in current and future environmental scenarios

Understanding seedling performance across resource gradients is crucial for defining the regeneration niche of plant species under current environmental conditions and for predicting potential changes under a global change scenario. A 2‐year field experiment was conducted to determine how seedling survival and growth of two evergreen and two deciduous Quercus species vary along gradients of light and soil properties in two Mediterranean forests with contrasting soils and climatic conditions. Half the seedlings were subjected to an irrigation treatment during the first year to quantify the effects on performance of an alteration in the summer drought intensity. Linear and non‐linear models were parameterized and compared to identify major resources controlling seedling performance. We found both site‐specific and general patterns of regeneration. Strong site‐specificity was found in the identity of the best predictors of seedling survival: survival decreased linearly with increasing light (i.e. increasing desiccation risk) in the drier site, whereas it decreased logistically with increasing spring soil water content (i.e. increasing waterlogging risk) in the wetter site. We found strong empirical support for multiple resource limitation at the drier site, the response to light being modulated by the availability of soil resources (water and P). Evidence for regeneration niche partitioning among Quercus species was only found at the wetter site. However, at both sites Quercus species shared the same response to summer drought alleviation through water addition: increased first‐year survival but not final survival (i.e. after two years). This suggests that extremely dry summers (i.e. the second summer in the experiment) can cancel out the positive effects of previous wetter summers. Therefore, an increase in the intensity and frequency of summer drought with climate change might cause a double negative impact on Quercus regeneration, due to a general reduction in survival probability and the annulment of the positive effects of (infrequent) ‘wet’ years. Overall, results presented in this study are a major step towards the development of a mechanistic model of Mediterranean forest dynamics that incorporates the idiosyncrasies and generalities of tree regeneration in these systems, and that allow simulation and prediction of the ecological consequences of resource level alterations due to global change.     

How complex should models be? Comparing correlative and mechanistic range dynamics models

Criticism has been levelled at climate‐change‐induced forecasts of species range shifts that do not account explicitly for complex population dynamics. The relative importance of such dynamics under climate change is, however, undetermined because direct tests comparing the performance of demographic models vs. simpler ecological niche models are still lacking owing to difficulties in evaluating forecasts using real‐world data. We provide the first comparison of the skill of coupled ecological‐niche‐population models and ecological niche models in predicting documented shifts in the ranges of 20 British breeding bird species across a 40‐year period. Forecasts from models calibrated with data centred on 1970 were evaluated using data centred on 2010. We found that more complex coupled ecological‐niche‐population models (that account for dispersal and metapopulation dynamics) tend to have higher predictive accuracy in forecasting species range shifts than structurally simpler models that only account for variation in climate. However, these better forecasts are achieved only if ecological responses to climate change are simulated without static snapshots of historic land use, taken at a single point in time. In contrast, including both static land use and dynamic climate variables in simpler ecological niche models improve forecasts of observed range shifts. Despite being less skilful at predicting range changes at the grid‐cell level, ecological niche models do as well, or better, than more complex models at predicting the magnitude of relative change in range size. Therefore, ecological niche models can provide a reasonable first approximation of the magnitude of species' potential range shifts, especially when more detailed data are lacking on dispersal dynamics, demographic processes underpinning population performance, and change in land cover.     

Effect of historical land‐use and climate change on tree‐climate relationships in the upper Midwestern United States

Contemporary forest inventory data are widely used to understand environmental controls on tree species distributions and to construct models to project forest responses to climate change, but the stability and representativeness of contemporary tree‐climate relationships are poorly understood. We show that tree‐climate relationships for 15 tree genera in the upper Midwestern US have significantly altered over the last two centuries due to historical land‐use and climate change. Realised niches have shifted towards higher minimum temperatures and higher rainfall. A new attribution method implicates both historical climate change and land‐use in these shifts, with the relative importance varying among genera and climate variables. Most climate/land‐use interactions are compounding, in which historical land‐use reinforces shifts in species‐climate relationships toward wetter distributions, or confounding, in which land‐use complicates shifts towards warmer distributions. Compounding interactions imply that contemporary‐based models of species distributions may underestimate species resilience to climate change.     

荒漠草原与典型草原NPP、碳积累对不同降雨年份和利用方式的响应

不同草原利用方式正在影响着内蒙古的草原生态系统,而且在未来降水空间格局变化的背景下,它们共同决定了生态系统植被类型、净初级生产力(NPP)和生态系统碳积累。选取内蒙古中部两个重要的草地类型:荒漠草原和典型草原,研究不同草原利用方式(围栏禁牧、划区轮牧、割草、自由放牧)植物群落在降雨量不同的两个生长季节地上(ANPP)、地下净初级生产力(BNPP)的变化,同时也评估了植物群落的碳积累,研究结果表明:1)在降雨量亏缺年份,与围封相比,荒漠草原自由放牧区ANPP、BNPP及碳积累分别下降了57.1%、51.7%和56.0%,而典型草原自由放牧区分别下降了18.4%、25.1%和17.9%。2)在降雨量充足年份,与围封相比,荒漠草原划区轮牧区ANPP、BNPP以及碳积累分别增加了18.2%、9.8%和21.9%,而典型草原各处理下围封禁牧区ANPP仍是最高;3)两种草地类型下,降雨量对自由放牧的调控作用高于其它草地利用方式;4)荒漠草原ANPP在丰雨年是欠雨年的2倍,而典型草原仅增加了79.0%,降雨量对荒漠草原生产力的季节调控作用远高于典型草原。在未来全球气候变暖和降水格局变化的情况下,荒漠草原降雨量是影响荒漠植物群落NPP和碳积累的主导因子。     

Experimental warming causes large and rapid species loss, dampened by simulated grazing, on the Tibetan Plateau

We investigated the independent and combined effects of experimental warming and grazing on plant species diversity on the north‐eastern Tibetan Plateau, a region highly vulnerable to ongoing climate and land use changes. Experimental warming caused a 26–36% decrease in species richness, a response that was generally dampened by experimental grazing. Higher species losses occurred at the drier sites where N was less available. Moreover, we observed an indirect effect of climate change on species richness as mediated by plant–plant interactions. Heat stress and warming‐induced litter accumulation are potential explanations for the species’ responses to experimental warming. This is the first reported experimental evidence that climate warming could cause dramatic declines in plant species diversity in high elevation ecosystems over short time frames and supports model predictions of species losses with anthropogenic climate change.     

The role of climate,water and biotic interactions in shaping biodiversity patterns in arid environments across spatial scales

Aim

Desert ecosystems, with their harsh environmental conditions, hold the key to understanding the responses of biodiversity to climate change. As desert community structure is influenced by processes acting at different spatial scales, studies combining multiple scales are essential for understanding the conservation requirements of desert biota. We investigated the role of environmental variables and biotic interactions in shaping broad and fine‐scale patterns of diversity and distribution of bats in arid environments to understand how the expansion of nondesert species can affect the long‐term conservation of desert biodiversity.

Location

Levant, Eastern Mediterranean.

Methods

We combine species distribution modelling and niche overlap statistics with a statistical model selection approach to integrate interspecific interactions into broadscale distribution models and fine‐scale analysis of ecological requirements. We focus on competition between desert bats and mesic species that recently expanded their distribution into arid environment following anthropogenic land‐use changes.

Results

We show that both climate and water availability limit bat distributions and diversity across spatial scales. The broadscale distribution of bats was determined by proximity to water and high temperatures, although the latter did not affect the distribution of mesic species. At the fine‐scale, high levels of bat activity and diversity were associated with increased water availability and warmer periods. Desert species were strongly associated with warmer and drier desert types. Range and niche overlap were high among potential competitors, but coexistence was facilitated through fine‐scale spatial partitioning of water resources.

Main conclusions

Adaptations to drier and warmer conditions allow desert‐obligate species to prevail in more arid environments. However, this competitive advantage may disappear as anthropogenic activities encroach further into desert habitats. We conclude that reduced water availability in arid environments under future climate change projections pose a major threat to desert wildlife because it can affect survival and reproductive success and may increase competition over remaining water resources.     

Towards the top: niche expansion of Taraxacum officinale and Ulex europaeus in mountain regions of South America

In the current context of ongoing global change, the understanding of how the niches of invasive species may change between different geographical areas or time periods is extremely important for the early detection and control of future invasions. We evaluated the effect of climate and non‐climate variables and the sensitivity to various spatial resolutions (i.e. 1 and 20 km) on niche changes during the invasion of Taraxacum officinale and Ulex europaeus in South America. We estimated niche changes using a combination of principal components analyses (PCA) and reciprocal Ecological Niche Modelling (rENM). We further investigated future invasion dynamics under a severe warming scenario for 2050 to unravel the role of niche shifts in the future potential distribution of the species. We observed a clear niche expansion for both species in South America towards higher temperature, precipitation and radiation relative to their native ranges. In contrast, the set of environmental conditions only occupied in the native ranges (i.e. niche unfilling) were less relevant. The magnitude of the niche shifts did not depend on the resolution of the variables. Models calibrated with occurrences from native range predicted large suitable areas in South America (outside of the Andes range) where T. officinale and U. europaeus are currently absent. Additionally, both species could increase their potential distributions by 2050, mostly in the southern part of the continent. In addition, the niche unfilling suggests high potential to invade additional regions in the future, which is extremely relevant considering the current impact of these species in the Southern Hemisphere. These findings confirm that invasive species can occupy new niches that are not predictable from knowledge based only on climate variables or information from the native range.     

Mycorrhizal fungal abundance is affected by long-term climatic manipulations in the field

Climate change treatments – winter warming, summer drought and increased summer precipitation – have been imposed on an upland grassland continuously for 7 years. The vegetation was surveyed yearly. In the seventh year, soil samples were collected on four occasions through the growing season in order to assess mycorrhizal fungal abundance. Mycorrhizal fungal colonisation of roots and extraradical mycorrhizal hyphal (EMH) density in the soil were both affected by the climatic manipulations, especially by summer drought. Both winter warming and summer drought increased the proportion of root length colonised (RLC) and decreased the density of external mycorrhizal hyphal. Much of the response of mycorrhizal fungi to climate change could be attributed to climate‐induced changes in the vegetation, especially plant species relative abundance. However, it is possible that some of the mycorrhizal response to the climatic manipulations was direct – for example, the response of the EMH density to the drought treatment. Future work should address the likely change in mycorrhizal functioning under warmer and drier conditions.