The influence of changing climate on the ecology and management of selected Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries

The Laurentian Great Lakes Basin provides an ecological system to evaluate the potential effect of climate change on dynamics of fish populations and the management of their fisheries. This review describes the physical and biological mechanisms by which fish populations will be affected by changes in timing and duration of ice cover, precipitation events and temperature regimes associated with projected climate change in the Great Lakes Basin with a principal focus on the fish communities in shallower regions of the basin. Lake whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis, walleye Sander vitreus and smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu were examined to assess the potential effects of climate change on guilds of Great Lakes cold, cool and warm-water fishes, respectively. Overall, the projections for these fishes are for the increased thermally suitable habitat within the lakes, though in different regions than they currently inhabit. Colder-water fishes will seek refuge further north and deeper in the water column and warmer-water fishes will fill the vacated habitat space in the warmer regions of the lakes. While these projections can be modified by a number of other habitat elements (e.g. anoxia, ice cover, dispersal ability and trophic productivity), it is clear that climate-change drivers will challenge the nature, flexibility and public perception of current fisheries management programmes. Fisheries agencies should develop decision support tools to provide a systematic method for incorporating ecological responses to climate change and moderating public interests to ensure a sustainable future for Great Lakes fishes and fisheries.     

Potential changes to the biology and challenges to the management of invasive sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus in the Laurentian Great Lakes due to climate change

Control programs are implemented to mitigate the damage caused by invasive species worldwide. In the highly invaded Great Lakes, the climate is expected to become warmer with more extreme weather and variable precipitation, resulting in shorter iced‐over periods and variable tributary flows as well as changes to pH and river hydrology and hydrogeomorphology. We review how climate change influences physiology, behavior, and demography of a damaging invasive species, sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus), in the Great Lakes, and the consequences for sea lamprey control efforts. Sea lamprey control relies on surveys to monitor abundance of larval sea lamprey in Great Lakes tributaries. The abundance of parasitic, juvenile sea lampreys in the lakes is calculated by surveying wounding rates on lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), and trap surveys are used to enumerate adult spawning runs. Chemical control using lampricides (i.e., lamprey pesticides) to target larval sea lamprey and barriers to prevent adult lamprey from reaching spawning grounds are the most important tools used for sea lamprey population control. We describe how climate change could affect larval survival in rivers, growth and maturation in lakes, phenology and the spawning migration as adults return to rivers, and the overall abundance and distribution of sea lamprey in the Great Lakes. Our review suggests that Great Lakes sea lamprey may benefit from climate change with longer growing seasons, more rapid growth, and greater access to spawning habitat, but uncertainties remain about the future availability and suitability of larval habitats. Consideration of the biology of invasive species and adaptation of the timing, intensity, and frequency of control efforts is critical to the management of biological invasions in a changing world, such as sea lamprey in the Great Lakes.     

Nutrient management and structural shifts in fish assemblages: Lessons learned from an Area of Concern in Lake Ontario

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Challenges in merging fisheries research and management: the Upper Mississippi River experience

The Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) is a geographically diverse basin extending 10° north temperate latitude that has produced fishes for humans for millennia. During European colonization through the present, the UMRS has been modified to meet multiple demands such as navigation and flood control. Invasive species, notably the common carp, have dominated fisheries in both positive and negative ways. Through time, environmental decline plus reduced economic incentives have degraded opportunities for fishery production. A renewed focus on fisheries in the UMRS may be dawning. Commercial harvest and corresponding economic value of native and non-native species along the river corridor fluctuates but appears to be increasing. Recreational use will depend on access and societal perceptions of the river. Interactions (e.g., disease and invasive species transmission) among fish assemblages within the UMRS, the Great Lakes, and other lakes and rivers are rising. Data collection for fisheries has varied in intensity and contiguousness through time, although resources for research and management may be growing. As fisheries production likely relies on the interconnectivity of fish populations and associated ecosystem processes among river reaches (e.g., between the pooled and unpooled UMRS), species-level processes such as genetics, life-history interactions, and migratory behavior need to be placed in the context of broad ecosystem- and landscape-scale restoration. Formal communication among a diverse group of researchers, managers, and public stakeholders crossing geographic and disciplinary boundaries is necessary through peer-reviewed publications, moderated interactions, and the embrace of emerging information technologies.     

Modeling Hawaiian Ecosystem Degradation due to Invasive Plants under Current and Future Climates

Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with <0.7 niche overlap (Warrens I) and relatively discriminative distributions (Area Under the Curve >0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.     

Quantifying the potential effects of climate change and the invasion of smallmouth bass on native lake trout populations across Canadian lakes

Climate change and invasive species are two stressors that should have large impacts on native species in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. We quantify and integrate the effects of climate change and the establishment of an invasive species (smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu ) on native lake trout Salvelinus namaycush populations. We assembled a dataset of almost 22 000 Canadian lakes that contained information on fish communities, lake morphologies, and geography. We examined the pelagic-benthic and littoral forage fish community available to lake trout populations across three lake size classes in these aquatic ecosystems. Due to the decreased presence of alternate prey resources, lake trout populations residing in smaller lakes are more vulnerable to the effects of smallmouth bass establishment. A detailed spatially and temporally explicit approach to assess smallmouth bass invasion risk in Ontario lakes suggests that the number of Ontario lakes with vulnerable lake trout populations could increase from 118 (~1%) to 1612 (~20%) by 2050 following projected climate warming. In addition, we identified nearly 9700 lake trout populations in Canada threatened by 2100, by the potential range expansion of smallmouth bass. Our study provides an integration of two major stressors of ecosystems, namely climate change and invasive species, by considering climate-change scenarios, dispersal rates of invasive species, and inter-specific biotic interactions.     

Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes

With rapidly increasing rates of contemporary extinction, predicting extinction vulnerability and identifying how multiple stressors drive non-random species loss have become key challenges in ecology. These assessments are crucial for avoiding the loss of key functional groups that sustain ecosystem processes and services. We developed a novel predictive framework of species extinction vulnerability and applied it to coral reef fishes. Although relatively few coral reef fishes are at risk of global extinction from climate disturbances, a negative convex relationship between fish species locally vulnerable to climate change vs. fisheries exploitation indicates that the entire community is vulnerable on the many reefs where both stressors co-occur. Fishes involved in maintaining key ecosystem functions are more at risk from fishing than climate disturbances. This finding is encouraging as local and regional commitment to fisheries management action can maintain reef ecosystem functions pending progress towards the more complex global problem of stabilizing the climate.     

Potential impacts of global climate change on freshwater fisheries

Despite uncertainty in all levels of analysis, recent and long-term changes in our climate point to the distinct possibility that greenhouse gas emissions have altered mean annual temperatures, precipitation and weather patterns. Modeling efforts that use doubled atmospheric CO₂ scenarios predict a 1–7°C mean global temperature increase, regional changes in precipitation patterns and storm tracks, and the possibility of “surprises” or sudden irreversible regime shifts. The general effects of climate change on freshwater systems will likely be increased water temperatures, decreased dissolved oxygen levels, and the increased toxicity of pollutants. In lotic systems, altered hydrologic regimes and increased groundwater temperatures could affect the quality of fish habitat. In lentic systems, eutrophication may be exacerbated or offset, and stratification will likely become more pronounced and stronger. This could alter food webs and change habitat availability and quality. Fish physiology is inextricably linked to temperature, and fish have evolved to cope with specific hydrologic regimes and habitat niches. Therefore, their physiology and life histories will be affected by alterations induced by climate change. Fish communities may change as range shifts will likely occur on a species level, not a community level; this will add novel biotic pressures to aquatic communities. Genetic change is also possible and is the only biological option for fish that are unable to migrate or acclimate. Endemic species, species in fragmented habitats, or those in east–west oriented systems will be less able to follow changing thermal isolines over time. Artisanal, commercial, and recreational fisheries worldwide depend upon freshwater fishes. Impacted fisheries may make it difficult for developing countries to meet their food demand, and developed countries may experience economic losses. As it strengthens over time, global climate change will become a more powerful stressor for fish living in natural or artificial systems. Furthermore, human response to climate change (e.g., increased water diversion) will exacerbate its already-detrimental effects. Model predictions indicate that global climate change will continue even if greenhouse gas emissions decrease or cease. Therefore, proactive management strategies such as removing other stressors from natural systems will be necessary to sustain our freshwater fisheries.     

Predicting habitat use and trophic interactions of Eurasian ruffe,round gobies,and zebra mussels in nearshore areas of the Great Lakes

The Laurentian Great Lakes have been subject to numerous introductions of nonindigenous species, including two recent benthic fish invaders, Eurasian ruffe (Gymnocephalus cernuus) and round gobies (Neogobius melanostomus), as well as the benthic bivalve, zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha). These three exotic species, or “exotic triad,” may impact nearshore benthic communities due to their locally high abundances and expanding distributions. Laboratory experiments were conducted to determine (1) whether ruffe and gobies may compete for habitat and invertebrate food in benthic environments, and (2) if zebra mussels can alter those competitive relationships by serving as an alternate food source for gobies. In laboratory mesocosms, both gobies and ruffe preferred cobble and macrophyte areas to open sand either when alone or in sympatry. In a 9-week goby–ruffe competition experiment simulating an invasion scenario with a limited food base, gobies grew faster than did ruffe, suggesting that gobies may be competitively superior at low resource levels. When zebra mussels were added in a short-term experiment, the presence or absence of mussels did not affect goby or ruffe growth, as few zebra mussels were consumed. This finding, along with other laboratory evidence, suggests that gobies may prefer soft-bodied invertebrate prey over zebra mussels. Studies of interactions among the “exotic triad”, combined with continued surveillance, may help Great Lakes fisheries managers to predict future population sizes and distributions of these invasive fish, evaluate their impacts on native food webs, and direct possible control measures to appropriate species.     

A scientific basis for restoring fish spawning habitat in the St. Clair and Detroit Rivers of the Laurentian Great Lakes

Loss of functional habitat in riverine systems is a global fisheries issue. Few studies, however, describe the decision‐making approach taken to abate loss of fish spawning habitat. Numerous habitat restoration efforts are underway and documentation of successful restoration techniques for spawning habitat of desirable fish species in large rivers connecting the Laurentian Great Lakes are reported here. In 2003, to compensate for the loss of fish spawning habitat in the St. Clair and Detroit Rivers that connect the Great Lakes Huron and Erie, an international partnership of state, federal, and academic scientists began restoring fish spawning habitat in both of these rivers. Using an adaptive management approach, we created 1,100 m² of productive fish spawning habitat near Belle Isle in the Detroit River in 2004; 3,300 m² of fish spawning habitat near Fighting Island in the Detroit River in 2008; and 4,000 m² of fish spawning habitat in the Middle Channel of the St. Clair River in 2012. Here, we describe the adaptive‐feedback management approach that we used to guide our decision making during all phases of spawning habitat restoration, including problem identification, team building, hypothesis development, strategy development, prioritization of physical and biological imperatives, project implementation, habitat construction, monitoring of fish use of the constructed spawning habitats, and communication of research results. Numerous scientific and economic lessons learned from 10 years of planning, building, and assessing fish use of these three fish spawning habitat restoration projects are summarized in this article.     

Forecasting the effects of global change scenarios on bioaccumulation patterns in great lakes species

Climate change will have substantial impacts on biodiversity, particularly for aquatic species. Warming temperatures and changing weather patterns will also remobilize and modify chemical partitioning. Holding millions of cubic yards of sediments contaminated with persistent legacy chemicals such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and dioxins, the Laurentian Great Lakes are a laboratory for observing interactions between biological and chemical responses to climate change. They provide a wide range of habitat to a variety of species, from littoral forage fish to deep‐water predators. In this paper, we couple bioenergetic and bioaccumulation models to investigate the biological and chemical effects of climate change in the Great Lakes. We consider three species: round goby, a warm‐water invasive forage fish; mottled sculpin, a cool‐water native forage fish; and lake trout, a cold‐water native predator. Using our coupled models, we calculate the accumulation of a representative persistent chemical, PCB‐77, under four climate scenarios for Lake Erie and Lake Superior. Predator–prey (lake trout–round goby) interactions and food availability (high–low) are incorporated into our simulations. For cool‐ to cold‐water species (sculpin, lake trout) we find that warm temperatures limit growth. For warm‐water species (round goby) cold temperatures limit growth. The impact of climate warming on growth depends on the winter lows as well as the summer highs of the scenario, in combination with the species' critical upper and lower thermal limits. We find conditions for high growth and consumption rates generally lead to high bioaccumulation. However, this can be confounded by predator–prey dynamics, as mismatches in the temperature preferences of predator and prey can lead to mismatches in relative growth and uptake rates. As predator–prey dynamics are expected to undergo substantial shifts with changing climate, these relative thermal sensitivities will be key in determining the implications of climate change for bioaccumulation, particularly in top predator species.     

Human impacts on the African Great Lakes

The African Great Lakes are important sources of fishes and water for domestic use, are used as avenues of transport, and receive agricultural, domestic and industrial effluents and atmospheric residues. Some of these lakes have speciose fish faunas of great interest to science. The catchment areas of some of the lakes are highly populated and user conflicts have increased the demands on the lakes' resources. There have been drastic reductions in fish stocks in most of the lakes due to overfishing. Introductions of new fish species, though followed by increases in fish catches, have been accompanied by a decline and in some cases extinction of native fish species. Some of the lakes have been invaded by the water hyacinth, Eichhornia crassipes. Agricultural activities, deforestation and devegetation of the catchment areas have increased siltation, and led to loss of suitable habitats and biodiversity. There are increased nutrient inputs from agriculture, sewage and industrial discharges and combustion processes which can cause eutrophication. There are also increased threats of toxic pollution from industrial waste discharge, mining, pesticides, and oil residues and spills. Climatic changes may also affect thermal stability of the lakes. These factors threaten availability of dietary protein, clean water and biodiversity. National and international efforts are required to manage the fisheries, guide the introduction of exotics, conserve biodiversity, control the water hyacinth, control eutrophication, reduce input of contaminants and manage climate change.     

Climate change is projected to reduce carrying capacity and redistribute species richness in North Pacific pelagic marine ecosystems

Climate change is expected to impact all aspects of marine ecosystems, including fisheries. Here, we use output from a suite of 11 earth system models to examine projected changes in two ecosystem‐defining variables: temperature and food availability. In particular, we examine projected changes in epipelagic temperature and, as a proxy for food availability, zooplankton density. We find that under RCP8.5, a high business‐as‐usual greenhouse gas scenario, increasing temperatures may alter the spatial distribution of tuna and billfish species richness across the North Pacific basin. Furthermore, warmer waters and declining zooplankton densities may act together to lower carrying capacity for commercially valuable fish by 2–5% per decade over the 21st century. These changes have the potential to significantly impact the magnitude, composition, and distribution of commercial fish catch across the pelagic North Pacific. Such changes will in turn ultimately impact commercial fisheries’ economic value. Fishery managers should anticipate these climate impacts to ensure sustainable fishery yields and livelihoods.     

Depth gradients in food‐web processes linking habitats in large lakes: Lake Superior as an exemplar ecosystem

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Provision of aquatic ecosystem services as a consequence of societal changes: The case of the Baltic Sea

Aquatic ecosystem services are important for human wellbeing, but they are much less studied than terrestrial ecosystem services. The objectives of this study are to broaden, itemize and exemplify the human-nature interactions in modeling the future provision of aquatic ecosystem services. We include shared socioeconomic and representative concentration pathways, used extensively in climate research, as drivers of change for the future development of the Baltic Sea. Then we use biogeochemical and ecosystem models to demonstrate the future development of exemplary supporting, provisioning and cultural ecosystem services for two distinct combinations of regionally downscaled global climate and socioeconomic futures. According to the model simulations, the two global futures (“Sustainable well-being” vs. “Fossil-fuelled development”) studied lead to clearly deviating trajectories in the provision of marine ecosystem services. Under the “Sustainable well-being”-scenario primary production decreases by 20%, catches of demersal fish increases and the recreation opportunities increase significantly by the end of the ongoing century. Under the “fossil-fuelled development”-scenario primary production doubles, fisheries focus on less valued pelagic fish and the recreation possibilities will decrease. Long-term projections of aquatic ecosystem services prepared for alternative global socioeconomic futures can be used by policy makers and managers to adaptively and iteratively adjust mitigation and adaptation effort with plausible future changes in the drivers of water pollution.     

Can we manage fisheries with the inherent uncertainty from eDNA?

Environmental (e)DNA, as a general approach in aquatic systems, seeks to connect the presence of species' genetic material in the water and hence to infer the species' physical presence. However, fisheries managers face making decisions with risk and uncertainty when eDNA indicates a fish is present but traditional methods fail to capture the fish. In comparison with traditional methods such as nets, electrofishing and piscicides, eDNA approaches have more sources of underlying error that could give rise to false positives. This has resulted in some managers to question whether eDNA can be used to make management decisions because there is no fish in hand. As a relatively new approach, the methods and techniques have quickly evolved to improve confidence in eDNA. By evaluating an eDNA based research programmes through the pattern of the eDNA signal, assay design, experimental design, quality assurance and quality control checks, data analyses and concurrent search for fish using traditional gears, the evidence for fish presence can be evaluated to build confidence in the eDNA approach. The benefits for fisheries management from adopting an eDNA approach are numerous but include cost effectiveness, broader geographic coverage of habitat occupancy, early detection of invasive species, non-lethal stock assessments, exploration of previously inaccessible aquatic environments and discovery of new species hidden beneath the water's surface. At a time when global freshwater and marine fisheries are facing growing threats from over-harvest, pollution and climate change, we anticipate that growing confidence in eDNA will overcome the inherent uncertainty of not having a fish in hand and will empower the informed management actions necessary to protect and restore our fisheries.     

Forecasting the combined effects of anticipated climate change and agricultural conservation practices on fish recruitment dynamics in Lake Erie

1. Many aquatic ecosystems are experiencing multiple anthropogenic stressors that threaten their ability to support ecologically and economically important fish species. Two of the most ubiquitous stressors are climate change and non-point source nutrient pollution.
2. Agricultural conservation practices (ACPs, i.e. farming practices that reduce runoff, prevent erosion, and curb excessive nutrient loading) offer a potential means to mitigate the negative effects of non-point source pollution on fish populations. However, our understanding of how ACP implementation amidst a changing climate will affect fish production in large ecosystems that receive substantial upstream sediment and nutrient inputs remains incomplete.
3. Towards this end, we explored how anticipated climate change and the implementation of realistic ACPs might alter the recruitment dynamics of three fish populations (native walleye Sander vitreus and yellow perch Perca flavescens and invasive white perch Morone americana) in the highly productive, dynamic west basin of Lake Erie. We projected future (2020–2065) recruitment under different combinations of anticipated climate change (n = 2 levels) and ACP implementation (n = 4 levels) in the western Lake Erie catchment using predictive biological models driven by forecasted winter severity, spring warming rate, and Maumee River total phosphorus loads that were generated from linked climate, catchment-hydrology, and agricultural-practice-simulation models.
4. In general, our models projected reduced walleye and yellow perch recruitment whereas invasive white perch recruitment was projected to remain stable or increase relative to the recent past. Our modelling also suggests the potential for trade-offs, as ACP implementation was projected to reduce yellow perch recruitment with anticipated climate change.
5. Overall, our study presents a useful modelling framework to forecast fish recruitment in Lake Erie and elsewhere, as well as offering projections and new avenues of research that could help resource management agencies and policy-makers develop adaptive and resilient management strategies in the face of anticipated climate and land-management change.

     

Proteomic analysis of the lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) heart and blood: The beginning of a comprehensive lake trout protein database

Lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) are a top-predator species in the Laurentian Great Lakes that are often used as bioindicators of chemical stressors in the ecosystem. Although many studies are done using these fish to determine concentrations of stressors like legacy persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic chemicals, there are currently no proteomic studies on the biological effects these stressors have on the ecosystem. This lack of proteomic studies on Great Lakes lake trout is because there is currently no complete, comprehensive protein database for this species. Here, we employed proteomics approaches to develop a lake trout protein database that could aid in future research on this fish, in particular exposomics and adductomics. The current study utilized heart tissue and blood from two lake trout. Our previous work using lake trout liver revealed 4194 potential protein hits in the NCBI databases and 3811 potential protein hits in the UniProtKB databases. In the current study, using the NCBI databases we identified 838 proteins for the heart and 580 proteins for the blood tissues in the biological replicate 1 (BR1) and 1180 potential protein hits for the heart and 561 potential protein hits for the blood in BR2. Similar results were obtained using the UniProtKB databases. This study builds on our previous work by continuing to build the first comprehensive lake trout protein database and provides insight into protein homology through evolutionary relationships. This data is available via the PRIDE partner repository with the dataset identifier PXD023970.     

Paradigm shifts in fish conservation: moving to the ecosystem services concept

Various factors constrain the existence and development of inland fishes and fisheries, such as pollution, habitat degradation, alien invasive species, local user conflicts, low social priority and inadequate research and funding. In many cases, however, degradation of the environment and loss of aquatic habitat are the predominant concerns for the conservation of freshwater aquatic biota. The need for concerted effort to prevent and reduce environmental degradation, as well as protection of freshwater fishes and fisheries as renewable common pool resources or entities in their own right, are the greatest challenges facing the conservation of fishes in inland waters. Unfortunately, traditional conservation practices such as regulation of exploitation, protected areas and habitat restoration have failed to arrest the alarming increase in number of threatened freshwater fish species worldwide. This paper examines the shifting paradigm of fisheries management from rule-based regulation, through fishery enhancement towards the ecosystem approach to fisheries, with reference to inland waters, and how the emerging concept of ecosystem services coupled with traditional fish conservation management practices, institutional restructuring and integrated management planning should provide a more sustainable thrust to formulation and promotion of fish conservation initiatives.     

Could Seals Prevent Cod Recovery in the Baltic Sea?

Fish populations are increasingly affected by multiple human and natural impacts including exploitation, eutrophication, habitat alteration and climate change. As a result many collapsed populations may have to recover in ecosystems whose structure and functioning differ from those in which they were formerly productive and supported sustainable fisheries. Here we investigate how a cod (Gadus morhua) population in the Baltic Sea whose biomass was reduced due to a combination of high exploitation and deteriorating environmental conditions might recover and develop in the 21st century in an ecosystem that likely will change due to both the already started recovery of a cod predator, the grey seal Halichoerus grypus, and projected climate impacts. Simulation modelling, assuming increased seal predation, fishing levels consistent with management plan targets and stable salinity, shows that the cod population could reach high levels well above the long-term average. Scenarios with similar seal and fishing levels but with 15% lower salinity suggest that the Baltic will still be able to support a cod population which can sustain a fishery, but biomass and yields will be lower. At present knowledge of cod and seal interactions, seal predation was found to have much lower impact on cod recovery, compared to the effects of exploitation and salinity. These results suggest that dual management objectives (recovery of both seal and cod populations) are realistic but success in achieving these goals will also depend on how climate change affects cod recruitment.