Demographic attributes of an introduced herbivorous lady beetle

Demographic attributes of the adults of an introduced herbivorous lady beetleEpilachna niponica (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) were investigated from 1975 to 1981 in the Botanical Garden of Kyoto University. Population growth rate varied from 4.8 to 16.8 throughout the study period. Fecundity and mortality in the late larval period contributed most to annual changes in the population growth rate. Population growth rate was negatively correlated with the density of overwintering adults. Adult survival from emergence to the reproductive season, which varied from 0.03 to 0.36 throughout the study, was almost completely determined by survival during the pre-hibernation period. Adult survival to the preproductive season changed in a size- and sex-dependent manner. Larger adults survived better than smaller individuals; male-biased mortality occurred from adult emergence to the reproductive age. Severe intraspecific competition among late instar larvae due to host plant defoliation produced a higher proportion of small-sized adults, resulting in lower adult survival to hibernation. The introduced population had a higher population growth rate and a lower adult survival to the reproductive season than the source population.     

Socially Defined Subpopulations Reveal Demographic Variation in a Giraffe Metapopulation

Populations are typically defined as spatially contiguous sets of individuals, but large populations of social species can be composed of discrete social communities that often overlap in space. Masai giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis tippelskirchi) of Tanzania live in distinct social subpopulations that overlap spatially, enabling us to simultaneously explore environmental and social factors correlated with demographic variation in a metapopulation of >1,400 adult females and calves. We considered statistically distinct communities in the social network as subpopulations and tested for variation among the 10 subpopulations in adult female survival, calf survival, and reproductive rate (calf-to-adult female ratio). We then related variation in demographic rates among subpopulations to differences in vegetation, soil type, proximity to 2 types of human settlements, local giraffe population density, and social metrics of relationship strength and exclusivity among adult females. We did not find any among-subpopulation effects on adult female survival, suggesting adult female survival is buffered against environmental heterogeneity among subpopulations. Variation in calf demographic rates among subpopulations were correlated with vegetation, soils, anthropogenic factors, and giraffe population density but not with adult female relationship metrics, despite substantial spatial overlap. Subpopulations with more dense bushlands in their ranges had lower calf survival probabilities, and those closer to human settlements had higher reproductive rates, possibly because of spatial gradients in natural predation. Reproductive rates were higher in subpopulations with more volcanic soils, and calf survival probabilities were greater in subpopulations with higher local adult female densities, possibly related to higher-quality habitat associated with fertile soils or lower predation risk, or to greater competitive ability. The variation in fitness among subpopulations suggests that giraffes do not move unhindered among resource patches to equalize reproductive success, as expected according to an ideal free distribution. The differences in calf survival and reproductive rates could rather indicate intercommunity differences in competitive ability, perception, learning, or experience. Our approach of comparing demography among spatially overlapping yet distinct socially defined subpopulations provides a biologically meaningful way to quantify environmental and social factors influencing fine-scale demographic variation for social species. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Spatial variation in demography and population growth rate: the importance of natal location

1. Understanding the pattern and magnitude of spatial variation in demography and population growth rate (lambda) is key to understanding the structure and dynamics of natural populations. However, such spatial variation is challenging to quantify. We use>20 years of individual life-history data to quantify small- and large-scale spatial variation in demography and lambda within a single population of red-billed choughs Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax on Islay, Scotland. Critically, we demonstrate a major importance of an individual's natal rather than current location in driving observed spatial variation. 2. Breeding success (the number of offspring fledged per breeding attempt) varied among individual chough nest sites but did not vary on a larger spatial scale across Islay. 3. The proportion of fledglings observed to survive to recruiting age varied markedly among individual nest sites and also varied more widely across Islay. Spatial capture-mark-recapture models defined two discrete geographical regions where fledgling survival differed significantly: choughs fledged in region 'BGE' were more likely to survive than choughs fledged in region 'CNSW' as both subadults and adults. 4. The asymptotic lambda attributable to breeding attempts in region BGE exceeded unity, and exceeded that attributable to breeding attempts in region CNSW. Relatively productive and unproductive regions therefore exist within this population. 5. Spatial variation in adult survival was better explained by an individual's natal region than the region where that individual settled to breed. Spatial variation in lambda would consequently have remained undetected had survival been measured across resident breeders rather than across individuals fledged in each region. Furthermore, breeding success was a weak predictor of a nest site's estimated productivity of recruits. 6. We therefore describe marked spatial variation in demography and lambda within a single population of a territorial vertebrate, mediated partly by long-term links between an individual's natal location and its subsequent life-history. Life-long monitoring of individuals of known origin may therefore be necessary to identify accurately subpopulations of intrinsically high and low lambda.     

Moisture‐driven shift in the climate sensitivity of white spruce xylem anatomical traits is coupled to large‐scale oscillation patterns across northern treeline in northwest North America

Tree growth at northern treelines is generally temperature‐limited due to cold and short growing seasons. However, temperature‐induced drought stress was repeatedly reported for certain regions of the boreal forest in northwestern North America, provoked by a significant increase in temperature and possibly reinforced by a regime shift of the pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The aim of this study is to better understand physiological growth reactions of white spruce, a dominant species of the North American boreal forest, to PDO regime shifts using quantitative wood anatomy and traditional tree‐ring width (TRW) analysis. We investigated white spruce growth at latitudinal treeline across a >1,000 km gradient in northwestern North America. Functionally important xylem anatomical traits (lumen area, cell‐wall thickness, cell number) and TRW were correlated with the drought‐sensitive standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index of the growing season. Correlations were computed separately for complete phases of the PDO in the 20th century, representing alternating warm/dry (1925–1946), cool/wet (1947–1976) and again warm/dry (1977–1998) climate regimes. Xylem anatomical traits revealed water‐limiting conditions in both warm/dry PDO regimes, while no or spatially contrasting associations were found for the cool/wet regime, indicating a moisture‐driven shift in growth‐limiting factors between PDO periods. TRW reflected only the last shift of 1976/1977, suggesting different climate thresholds and a higher sensitivity to moisture availability of xylem anatomical traits compared to TRW. This high sensitivity of xylem anatomical traits permits to identify first signs of moisture‐driven growth in treeline white spruce at an early stage, suggesting quantitative wood anatomy being a powerful tool to study climate change effects in the northwestern North American treeline ecotone. Projected temperature increase might challenge growth performance of white spruce as a key component of the North American boreal forest biome in the future, when drier conditions are likely to occur with higher frequency and intensity.     

Regional differences in responses of chinook salmon populations to large-scale climatic patterns

Aim To quantitatively explore the extent to which many different populations of the same species (chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) respond cohesively to a common large‐scale climatic trend. Location The Columbia River basin of the northwestern US. Methods I used regression analyses to describe the downward trend in population growth (number of recruits per spawning adult) for thirteen populations of chinook salmon distributed among three geographical regions: Snake River, Upper Columbia River and Middle Columbia River. I then used residuals from these regressions to characterize per capita productivity for each brood year. Positive residuals indicated productivity higher than that predicted by the time series, while negative residuals revealed years in which productivity was lower than predicted. I next used analysis of covariance (ancova ) to test the null hypothesis that associations between ocean/climate conditions and deviations from predicted population growth did not vary among geographical regions. All ancova s used residuals generated from the regressions as the response variable, geographical region as the main effect, and climatic condition [characterized by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDO)] as the covariate. A major climate shift occurred in 1977, and because the association of the PDO with salmon productivity varied between the pre‐ and post‐1977 climate regimes, I analysed data from the two regimes separately. Results There were marked impacts of climate on salmon production that varied among geographical regions and between decade‐scale climate regimes. During the pre‐1977 climate regime, productivity of salmon populations from the Snake River tended to exceed expectations (i.e. residuals were positive) when values of the PDO were negative. In contrast, this pattern was not evident in populations from the upper or middle Columbia Rivers. During the post‐1977 regime when ocean productivity was generally lower, the association of the PDO with salmon productivity changed – productivity tended to fall short of expectations (i.e. residuals were negative) when values of the PDO were negative. Main conclusions Understanding the linkages between salmon populations and climate is critical as managers attempt to preserve threatened salmon populations in the face of both natural or human‐induced climate variation and the litany of human activities affecting salmon. An important step in this understanding is the recognition that the response to ocean/climate change by salmon populations of the same species and river basin is not necessarily homogeneous.     

Phenology and demography of Homalodisca coagulata (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) in southern California citrus and implications for management

Populations of Homalodisca coagulata (Say) were sampled from citrus orchards in southern California, USA to characterize and quantify seasonal occurrences of nymphs and adults with the goal of identifying management opportunities through well-timed treatments and/or natural enemy releases. Higher densities of H. coagulata in 2001 contributed to a complete seasonal profile that began in early spring with the emergence of first instar nymphs and their progression through five nymphal instars lasting until mid-August. Adult emergence began in mid-June with peak adult densities attained from mid to late August followed by a gradual decline through autumn. A persistent and significant male bias was observed in the adult sex ratio from the time of first emergence through mid-October in oranges; the same trend was present in lemons, but with more variability. Adult densities gradually declined through the winter months into the following spring before rapidly increasing again in June as the 2002 spring generation of nymphs began emerging as adults. The seasonal timing of nymphs and adults in 2002 was nearly identical to that observed the previous year. Phenology data from both years were incorporated into a stochastic, temperature-dependent model that predicts the occurrences of H. coagulata stages through time. Applications of imidacloprid early in the spring generation of nymphs proved very effective at reducing nymphs and sustaining lower densities of adults through summer.     

Climate change and annual survival in a temperate passerine: partitioning seasonal effects and predicting future patterns

Predicting climate change impacts on population size requires detailed understanding of how climate influences key demographic rates, such as survival. This knowledge is frequently unavailable, even in well‐studied taxa such as birds. In temperate regions, most research into climatic effects on annual survival in resident passerines has focussed on winter temperature. Few studies have investigated potential precipitation effects and most assume little impact of breeding season weather. We use a 19‐year capture–mark–recapture study to provide a rare empirical analysis of how variation in temperature and precipitation throughout the entire year influences adult annual survival in a temperate passerine, the long‐tailed tit Aegithalos caudatus. We use model averaging to predict longer‐term historical survival rates, and future survival until the year 2100. Our model explains 73% of the interannual variation in survival rates. In contrast to current theory, we find a strong precipitation effect and no effect of variation in winter weather on adult annual survival, which is correlated most strongly to breeding season (spring) weather. Warm springs and autumns increase annual survival, but wet springs reduce survival and alter the form of the relationship between spring temperature and annual survival. There is little evidence for density dependence across the observed variation in population size. Using our model to estimate historical survival rates indicates that recent spring warming has led to an upward trend in survival rates, which has probably contributed to the observed long‐term increase in the UK long‐tailed tit population. Future climate change is predicted to further increase survival, under a broad range of carbon emissions scenarios and probabilistic climate change outcomes, even if precipitation increases substantially. We demonstrate the importance of considering weather over the entire annual cycle, and of considering precipitation and temperature in combination, in order to develop robust predictive models of demographic responses to climate change. Synthesis Prediction of climate change impacts demands understanding of how climate influences key demographic rates. In our 19‐year mark‐recapture study of long‐tailed tits Aegithalos caudatus, weather explained 73% of the inter‐annual variation in adult survival; warm springs and autumns increased survival, wet springs reduced survival, but winter weather had little effect. Robust predictions thus require consideration of the entire annual cycle and should not focus solely on temperature. Unexpectedly, survival appeared not to be strongly density‐dependent, so we use historical climate data to infer that recent climate change has enhanced survival over the four decades in which the UK long‐tailed tit population has more than doubled. Furthermore, survival rates in this species are predicted to further increase under a wide range of future climate scenarios.     

Population field studies on the aphidophagous ladybird beetle Harmonia axyridis (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae): resource tracking and population characteristics

To clarify functional and numerical responses to temporal and spatial variations of resources (resource tracking), and the population characteristics of the ladybird beetle Harmonia axyridis, I analyzed the results of a 3-year field observation at 24 sites (seven plant species) on eight species of aphids. The seasonal changes in the number of beetles estimated by the Jolly–Seber method were significantly correlated with those of aphids in the total area. The estimated values of population parameters suggested frequent immigration and emigration of the H. axyridis population, although reproductive rates between spring and summer were rather stable all 3 years (1.87–3.49). The staying time and the daily number of adults and eggs at each site were influenced not only by a single factor but also by interactions among time and quantity and quality of the prey. The adult movement showed two patterns, which corresponded with the movement within and between the subpopulations when an assemblage of H. axyridis occurring on the plants of the same species or genus was regarded as a subpopulation. Adult movement intensely occurred within a subpopulation, although the beetles moving between subpopulations had a significantly greater chance to reach the habitat with a high aphid density. The habitats of H. axyridis could be categorized into a suitable habitat for survival and reproduction and a temporal refuge. The results obtained here suggest that H. axyridis, with high ability of prey searching and reproduction, maintains a stable population in heterogeneous and temporal habitats by its resource tracking mechanisms. Received: March 8, 1999 / Accepted: April 25, 2000     

An experimental study of population regulation in the salamander,Notophthalmus viridescens dorsalis (Urodela: Salamandridae)

Summary The roles of density-dependent larval survival and cannibalism of larvae as potential mechanisms of population regulation in the newt (Notophthalmus viridescens dorsalis) were evaluated in laboratory and field experiments. In laboratory containers, adults cannibalized larvae and large larvae cannibalized smaller larvae. In artificial ponds, larval survival did not depend on initial larval density. No cannibalism could be demonstrated in the complex environment, although the experiment was powerful enough to detect an ecologically relevant difference in survival. Adult growth was negatively correlated with the final biomass of larval newts, suggesting that the two life stages competed for resources. Larval growth rates were negatively correlated with final larval density, suggesting that larvae competed with each other. The proportion of larvae that became sexually mature at age 7 months (paedomorphs and adults that skipped the eft stage) varied inversely with larval density. Therefore, the potential regulatory mechanisms identified in this study are competition within and between life stages.     

Bionomics of Aedes aegypti subpopulations (Diptera: Culicidae) from Argentina

Differences in biological features of immature and adult Aedes aegypti, as well as variability in vector competence, seem consistent with the existence of genetic variation among subpopulations and adaptation to local conditions. This work aims to compare the bionomics of four Ae. aegypti subpopulations derived from different geographical regions reared under temperate conditions. Life statistics of three Ae. aegypti subpopulations from the provinces of Córdoba, Salta, and Misiones were studied based on horizontal life tables. The Rockefeller strain was used as a control. The development time required to complete the larva and pupa stages varied from 6.91 to 7.95 and 1.87 to 2.41 days, respectively. Significant differences were found in mean larval development time between the Córdoba and Orán subpopulations. The larva‐pupa development time was similar in all the subpopulations. However, survival values varied significantly between the Orán and San Javier subpopulations. The proportion of emergent males did not differ from females within each subpopulation nor among them. Adult longevity was similar among the subpopulations. The average number of eggs laid by each female was significantly different. The Rockefeller strain laid a significantly greater number of eggs (463.99 eggs/female) than the rest of the subpopulations. Moreover, differences in the demographic growth parameter R_o were detected among the four subpopulations. The differences obtained in larval development time, larva‐pupa survival values, and net reproductive rates among the subpopulations might reflect underlying genetic differences as a result of colonization from different regions that probably involve adaptations to local conditions.     

Novel forest decline triggered by multiple interactions among climate,an introduced pathogen and bark beetles

Novel forest decline is increasing due to global environmental change, yet the causal factors and their interactions remain poorly understood. Using tree ring analyses, we show how climate and multiple biotic factors caused the decline of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in 16 stands in the southern Canadian Rockies. In our study area, 72% of whitebark pines were dead and 18% had partially dead crowns. Tree mortality peaked in the 1970s; however, the annual basal area increment of disturbed trees began to decline significantly in the late 1940s. Growth decline persisted up to 30 years before trees died from mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), Ips spp. bark beetles or non‐native blister rust pathogen (Cronartium ribicola). Climate–growth relations varied over time and differed among the healthy and disturbed subpopulations of whitebark pine. Prior to the 1940s, cool temperatures limited the growth of all subpopulations. Growth of live, healthy trees became limited by drought during the cool phase (1947 –1976) of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and then reverted to positive correlations with temperature during the subsequent warm PDO phase. In the 1940s, the climate–growth relations of the disturbed subpopulations diverged from the live, healthy trees with trees ultimately killed by mountain pine beetle diverging the most. We propose that multiple factors interacted over several decades to cause unprecedented rates of whitebark pine mortality. Climatic variation during the cool PDO phase caused drought stress that may have predisposed trees to blister rust. Subsequent decline in snowpack and warming temperatures likely incited further climatic stress and with blister rust reduced tree resistance to bark beetles. Ultimately, bark beetles and blister rust contributed to tree death. Our findings suggest the complexity of whitebark pine decline and the importance of considering multiway drought–disease–insect interactions over various timescales when interpreting forest decline.     

Population dynamics in a Danish metapopulation of spadefoot toads Pelobates fuscus

If an amphibian species has a high degree of site fidelity to its natal pond, subpopulations do not mix, and this may have implications: the subpopulations may get different because of genetic drift, and their status may be affected due to stochastic events. During a four-year period (1994–1997), demographic parameters of a Danish metapopulation consisting of ca 1000 adult Pelobates fuscus in five subpopulations were investigated with the aim of quantifying exchange of individuals in subpopulations and potential differences in demographic parameters, and to clarify population regulating mechanisms. This was done through the use of drift fences surrounding the five breeding ponds, individual marking (PIT-tagging) and weight recordings of the adult females. Metamorphs were recorded when leaving the pond. There was no significant differences between ponds in sex ratio, eggs laid per female, fraction of females breeding and survival of eggs to froglets and of adults. However, there was a significant difference in juvenile survival (52% in one pond and 31% in the others). Sex ratio was 1.70 males:1 female. Mean number of eggs laid per female in the pond was 1762. The number of eggs laid was age-specific, fecundity peaking at age five. Larval survival rate was density dependent: decreasing in an overcompensating fashion at high densities. Exchange rate between ponds was low; 1.09% of the marked and recaptured adult population was found to change pond during the study period. The low exchange rate was confirmed in a simple translocation experiment. This population shows features of a source-sink metapopulation where the identity of the source pond changes due to succession. It is presumably regulated either in the larval stage by density dependent mechanisms (in the subpopulations with many adults) or in the adult stage by density independent mechanisms (in the subpopulations with few adults).     

Spatial patterns in age- and colony-specific survival in a long-lived seabird across 14 contrasting colonies

Demographic rates such as recruitment and survival probability can vary considerably among populations of the same species due to variation in underlying environmental processes. If environmental processes are spatially correlated, nearby populations are expected to have more similar demographic rates than those further apart. Breeding populations and foraging ranges are spatially segregated in colonial seabirds, making them ideal for studying spatial patterns in demographic rates and their effects on local population dynamics. Here we explored variation in age-dependent survival probabilities across 14 colonies of Herring Gulls Larus argentatus breeding along the Dutch North Sea coast. We used long-term mark–recapture data of marked fledglings to estimate survival, and estimated spatial autocorrelation of survival probabilities. We assessed whether survival until recruitment age or until 10 years old (close to their expected lifespan) explained variation in population trajectories of each colony. Juvenile and adult survival showed a strong, but different, north-to-south gradient in survival probability, with lower juvenile but higher adult survival in northern colonies than southern colonies, whereas the spatial pattern of immature survival was less distinct. Neither recruitment nor the proportion of 10-year-old adults alive predicted whether a colony collapsed, declined, remained stable or increased. The distinct spatial pattern in survival suggests variation in regional food availability, which do not seem to drive local population dynamics. The absence of a link between survival and colony trajectories implies that connectivity between populations plays an important role affecting population dynamics.     

Social mechanisms of population regulation in a captive group of bonnet macaques (Macaca radiata)

The purpose of the present paper is to evaluate the factors that contributed to annual variation in fertility and infant survival in a relatively undisturbed captive group of bonnet macaques (Macaca radiata) over a 16-year period. The size and composition of this population fluctuated over time, and these changes were consistently associated with changes in female fertility and infant survival. Female fertility was highest when there were relatively few adult females in the group and when there were relatively few adult females per adult male. Similarly, infant survival was highest in years when there were relatively few adult females present and when cohorts of infants were small. Since environmental factors, such as availability of food and vulnerability to predation, were unlikely to constrain population growth in captivity, the data suggest that other mechanisms may have affected demographic processes in this captive group.     

Seasonality of peridomestic cockroaches (Blattoidea: Blattidae): mobility, winter reduction, and effect of traps and baits.

Populations of smokybrown cockroaches, Periplaneta fuliginosa (Serville), and Eurycotis floridana (Walker) were studied to compare mobility and population size between fall 1985 and spring 1986 seasons at site A, and to assess the effect of a combination of traps and baits at site B in northcentral Florida. Adult smokybrown cockroaches were more mobile in the spring than in the fall; a similar trend for E. floridana adults was not significant. Overall population levels were reduced after winter by approximately 73%. No significant shift in spatial distributions of nymphs occurred, but adult distribution changed from a predominance in palms (fall) to hardwood trees with tree holes (spring), suggesting that this habitat offers better survival during winter. Removal of cockroaches by trapping at site B, followed by a single application of dry distiller's grain containing 0.5 chlorpyrifos, reduced expected population levels (based on site A data) by 90% measured at 6 mo after treatment. These data refute the hypothesis that an increase in numbers of cockroaches infesting homes in the fall is due to an increase in mobility. Instead, the results suggest that population size and proximity of principal habitats to the home are probably responsible for domestic infestations in the fall. Use of traps, baits, or both at these foci significantly reduce populations over an extended period.     

Environmental and evolutionary effects on horn growth of male bighorn sheep

The development of male secondary sexual characters such as antlers or horns has substantial biological and socio‐economic importance because in many species these traits affect male fitness positively through sexual selection and negatively through trophy hunting. Both environmental conditions and selective hunting can affect horn growth but their relative importance remains unexplored. We first examined how a large‐scale climate index, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), local weather and population density influenced both absolute and relative annual horn growth from birth to three years of male bighorn sheep Ovis canadensis over 42 years. We then examined the relative influence of environmental conditions and evolution mainly driven by trophy hunting on male horn length at three years of age. Horn growth was positively influenced by low population density and warm spring temperature, suggesting that ongoing climate change should lead to larger horns. Seasonal values of PDO were highly correlated. Horn growth increased with PDO in spring or summer at low density, but was weak at high density regardless of PDO. The interaction between population density and PDO in spring or summer accounted for a similar proportion of the observed annual variation in horn growth (32% or 37%) as did the additive effects of spring temperature and density (34%). When environmental conditions deteriorated, males allocated relatively more resources to summer mass gain than to horn growth, suggesting a conservative strategy favoring maintenance of condition over allocation to secondary sexual characters. Population density explained 27% of the variation in horn length, while evolutionary effects explained 9% of the variance. Thus, our study underlines the importance of both evolution and phenotypic plasticity on the development of a secondary sexual trait.     

Interactions between adult and larval bluegill sunfish: positive and negative effects

Adult fish may affect the growth and survival of conspecific larvae through a variety of pathways, including negative interactions via competition for shared limiting resources or via predation (i.e., cannibalism), and positive interactions due to the consumption of larval predators and via resource enhancement (i.e., presence of adults increases availability of larval prey). To examine the overall effect of adult bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus) on larval bluegill, we conducted a field experiment in which we manipulated adult densities and quantified larval growth and survival, prey abundance, invertebrate predator abundance, and cannibalism. The presence of adult bluegill had a negative effect on final larval mass. This response was consistent with competition for zooplankton prey. Adult bluegill reduced the abundance of large zooplankton (e.g., Chaoborus and Daphnia), which were the dominant prey of bluegill larvae in the absence of adults. Larvae in the no-adult treatment also had significantly more prey in their stomachs compared to larvae in the presence of adults. Larval survival was maximized at intermediate adult densities and the overall production of larvae peaked at intermediate adult densities. The higher larval survival at intermediate adult densities is attributed to a reduction in invertebrate predators in treatments with adult bluegill; invertebrate predators experienced an 80% reduction in the presence of adult fish. Decreased larval survival at the highest adult density was not due to resource limitation and may be due to cannibalism, which was not directly observed in our study, but has been observed in other studies.     

Survival,site fidelity,and the population dynamics of Piping Plovers in Saskatchewan

ABSTRACT To conserve threatened species, managers require predictions about the effects of natural and anthropogenic factors on population growth that in turn require accurate estimates of survival, birth, and dispersal rates, and their correlation with natural and anthropogenic factors. For Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus), fledging rate is often more amenable to management than adult survival, and population models can be used to estimate the productivity (young produced per breeding female) necessary to maintain or increase populations for given levels of survival. We estimated true survival and site fidelity of adult and subadult (from fledging to second year) Piping Plovers breeding in Saskatchewan using mark‐resight data from 2002 to 2009. By estimating true survival rather than apparent survival (which is confounded with permanent emigration), we were able to provide more accurate projections of population trends. Average adult and subadult survival rates during our study were 0.80 and 0.57, respectively. Adult survival declined over time, possibly due in part to the loss of one breeding site to flooding. Average adult and subadult site fidelity were 0.86 and 0.46, respectively. Adult site fidelity declined during our study at two study sites, most strongly at the flooded site. Male and female Piping Plovers had similar survival rates, but males had greater site fidelity than females in some years. Based on our survival estimates, productivity needed for a stationary population was 0.75, a benchmark used for plover management on the Atlantic Coast, but not previously estimated for Prairie Canada. In stochastic simulations incorporating literature‐based variation in survival rates, productivity needed for a stationary population increased to 0.86, still lower than that previously estimated for western populations. Mean productivity for our study sites ranged from 0.87 to 0.96 fledged young per pair. Our results suggest that fledging rates of Piping Plovers in Saskatchewan were sufficient to ensure a stationary or increasing population during our study period. However, large‐scale habitat changes such as drought or anthropogenic flooding may lead to dispersal of breeding adults and possibly mortality that will increase the fledging rate needed for a stationary population.     

Movements and source–sink dynamics of a Masai giraffe metapopulation

Spatial variation in habitat quality and anthropogenic factors, as well as social structure, can lead to spatially structured populations of animals. Demographic approaches can be used to improve our understanding of the dynamics of spatially structured populations and help identify subpopulations critical for the long-term persistence of regional metapopulations. We provide a regional metapopulation analysis to inform conservation management for Masai giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis tippelskirchi) in five subpopulations defined by land management designations. We used data from an individual-based mark–recapture study to estimate subpopulation sizes, subpopulation growth rates, and movement probabilities among subpopulations. We assessed the source–sink structure of the study population by calculating source–sink statistics, and we created a female-based matrix metapopulation model composed of all subpopulations to examine how variation in demographic components of survival, reproduction, and movement affected metapopulation growth rate. Movement data indicated no subpopulation was completely isolated, but movement probabilities varied among subpopulations. Source–sink statistics and net flow of individuals indicated three subpopulations were sources, while two subpopulations were sinks. We found areas with higher wildlife protection efforts and fewer anthropogenic impacts were sources, and less-protected areas were identified as sinks. Our results highlight the importance of identifying source–sink dynamics among subpopulations for effective conservation planning and emphasize how protected areas can play an important role in sustaining metapopulations.     

Effects of variable spring harvest regimes on annual survival and recovery rates of male wild turkeys in Southeast Louisiana

Spring harvest is a primary mortality factor for male eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris), but the relationship between spring harvest regimes and annual survival is not well understood. We banded 462 male wild turkeys from 1989 to 2007 in southeastern Louisiana to estimate annual survival and band recovery rates relative to spring harvest. We evaluated these parameters under a liberal harvest season (3-bird limit; 1989–1997) and a reduced conservative harvest season (2-bird limit; 2000–2007). Estimated recovery rates during the liberal season were 0.75 (SE = 0.05) for adults and 0.63 (SE = 0.04) for juveniles, and recovery rates during the conservative season were 0.61 (SE = 0.04) and 0.48 (SE = 0.05) for adults and juveniles, respectively. Annual survival averaged 0.16 (SE = 0.05) and 0.43 (SE = 0.05) for adults and juveniles, respectively, during the liberal season. Conversely, during the conservative season, annual survival averaged 0.31 (SE = 0.05) and 0.56 (SE = 0.05) for adults and juveniles, respectively. Our findings suggest that bag limit reductions combined with a reduction in season length contributed to a 2-fold increase in annual survival for male wild turkeys. We contend that male wild turkeys were likely over harvested on our study area during the liberal harvest season, which contributed to exceptionally low annual survival rates. Managers should attempt to assess survival rates of male wild turkeys in harvested populations to properly manage spring harvest and develop appropriate harvest limits. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.