Metapopulation dynamics for spatially extended predator–prey interactions

Traditional metapopulation theory classifies a metapopulation as a spatially homogeneous population that persists on neighboring habitat patches. The fate of each population on a habitat patch is a function of a balance between births and deaths via establishment of new populations through migration to neighboring patches. In this study, we expand upon traditional metapopulation models by incorporating spatial heterogeneity into a previously studied two-patch nonlinear ordinary differential equation metapopulation model, in which the growth of a general prey species is logistic and growth of a general predator species displays a Holling type II functional response. The model described in this work assumes that migration by generalist predator and prey populations between habitat patches occurs via a migratory corridor. Thus, persistence of species is a function of local population dynamics and migration between spatially heterogeneous habitat patches. Numerical results generated by our model demonstrate that population densities exhibit periodic plane-wave phenomena, which appear to be functions of differences in migration rates between generalist predator and prey populations. We compare results generated from our model to results generated by similar, but less ecologically realistic work, and to observed population dynamics in natural metapopulations.     

Unexpected coherence and conservation.

The effects of migration in a network of patch populations, or metapopulation, are extremely important for predicting the possibility of extinctions both at a local and a global scale. Migration between patches synchronizes local populations and bestows upon them identical dynamics (coherent or synchronous oscillations), a feature that is understood to enhance the risk of global extinctions. This is one of the central theoretical arguments in the literature associated with conservation ecology. Here, rather than restricting ourselves to the study of coherent oscillations, we examine other types of synchronization phenomena that we consider to be equally important. Intermittent and out-of-phase synchronization are but two examples that force us to reinterpret some classical results of the metapopulation theory. In addition, we discuss how asynchronous processes (for example, random timing of dispersal) can paradoxically generate metapopulation synchronization, another non-intuitive result that cannot easily be explained by the standard theory.     

Two-patch dispersal-linked compensatory-overcompensatory spatially discrete population models

We study the role of asynchronous and synchronous dispersals on discrete-time two-patch dispersal-linked population models, where the pre-dispersal local patch dynamics are of mixed compensatory and overcompensatory types. Single-species dispersal-linked models behave as single-species single-patch models whenever all pre-dispersal local patch dynamics are compensatory and dispersal is synchronous. However, the dynamics of the corresponding two-patch population model connected by asynchronous dispersal depends on the dispersal rates. The species goes extinct on at least one patch when the asynchronous dispersal rates are high, while it persists when the rates are low. We use numerical simulations to show that in both synchronous and asynchronous mixed compensatory and overcompensatory systems, symmetric and asymmetric dispersals can control and impede the onset of cyclic population oscillations via period-doubling reversal bifurcations. Also, we show that in mixed systems both asynchronous and synchronous dispersals are capable of altering the pre-dispersal local patch dynamics from overcompensatory to compensatory dynamics. Dispersal-linked population models with 'unstructured' overcompensatory pre-dispersal local dynamics connected by synchronous dispersal can generate multiple attractors with fractal basin boundaries. However, mixed compensatory and overcompensatory systems appear to exhibit single attractors and not coexisting (multiple) attractors.     

Two-patch dispersal-linked compensatory-overcompensatory spatially discrete population models

We study the role of asynchronous and synchronous dispersals on discrete-time two-patch dispersal-linked population models, where the pre-dispersal local patch dynamics are of mixed compensatory and overcompensatory types. Single-species dispersal-linked models behave as single-species single-patch models whenever all pre-dispersal local patch dynamics are compensatory and dispersal is synchronous. However, the dynamics of the corresponding two-patch population model connected by asynchronous dispersal depends on the dispersal rates. The species goes extinct on at least one patch when the asynchronous dispersal rates are high, while it persists when the rates are low. We use numerical simulations to show that in both synchronous and asynchronous mixed compensatory and overcompensatory systems, symmetric and asymmetric dispersals can control and impede the onset of cyclic population oscillations via period-doubling reversal bifurcations. Also, we show that in mixed systems both asynchronous and synchronous dispersals are capable of altering the pre-dispersal local patch dynamics from overcompensatory to compensatory dynamics. Dispersal-linked population models with ‘unstructured’ overcompensatory pre-dispersal local dynamics connected by synchronous dispersal can generate multiple attractors with fractal basin boundaries. However, mixed compensatory and overcompensatory systems appear to exhibit single attractors and not coexisting (multiple) attractors.     

Stabilization through spatial pattern formation in metapopulations with long-range dispersal

Many studies of metapopulation models assume that spatially extended populations occupy a network of identical habitat patches, each coupled to its nearest neighbouring patches by density-independent dispersal. Much previous work has focused on the temporal stability of spatially homogeneous equilibrium states of the metapopulation, and one of the main predictions of such models is that the stability of equilibrium states in the local patches in the absence of migration determines the stability of spatially homogeneous equilibrium states of the whole metapopulation when migration is added. Here, we present classes of examples in which deviations from the usual assumptions lead to different predictions. In particular, heterogeneity in local habitat quality in combination with long-range dispersal can induce a stable equilibrium for the metapopulation dynamics, even when within-patch processes would produce very complex behaviour in each patch in the absence of migration. Thus, when spatially homogeneous equilibria become unstable, the system can often shift to a different, spatially inhomogeneous steady state. This new global equilibrium is characterized by a standing spatial wave of population abundances. Such standing spatial waves can also be observed in metapopulations consisting of identical habitat patches, i.e. without heterogeneity in patch quality, provided that dispersal is density dependent. Spatial pattern formation after destabilization of spatially homogeneous equilibrium states is well known in reaction–diffusion systems and has been observed in various ecological models. However, these models typically require the presence of at least two species, e.g. a predator and a prey. Our results imply that stabilization through spatial pattern formation can also occur in single-species models. However, the opposite effect of destabilization can also occur: if dispersal is short range, and if there is heterogeneity in patch quality, then the metapopulation dynamics can be chaotic despite the patches having stable equilibrium dynamics when isolated. We conclude that more general metapopulation models than those commonly studied are necessary to fully understand how spatial structure can affect spatial and temporal variation in population abundance.     

Effect of predator density dependent dispersal of prey on stability of a predator-prey system

This work presents a predator-prey Lotka-Volterra model in a two patch environment. The model is a set of four ordinary differential equations that govern the prey and predator population densities on each patch. Predators disperse with constant migration rates, while prey dispersal is predator density-dependent. When the predator density is large, the dispersal of prey is more likely to occur. We assume that prey and predator dispersal is faster than the local predator-prey interaction on each patch. Thus, we take advantage of two time scales in order to reduce the complete model to a system of two equations governing the total prey and predator densities. The stability analysis of the aggregated model shows that a unique strictly positive equilibrium exists. This equilibrium may be stable or unstable. A Hopf bifurcation may occur, leading the equilibrium to be a centre. If the two patches are similar, the predator density dependent dispersal of prey has a stabilizing effect on the predator-prey system.     

Dispersal delays, predator-prey stability, and the paradox of enrichment

It takes time for individuals to move from place to place. This travel time can be incorporated into metapopulation models via a delay in the interpatch migration term. Such a term has been shown to stabilize the positive equilibrium of the classical Lotka-Volterra predator-prey system with one species (either the predator or the prey) dispersing. We study a more realistic, Rosenzweig-MacArthur, model that includes a carrying capacity for the prey, and saturating functional response for the predator. We show that dispersal delays can stabilize the predator-prey equilibrium point despite the presence of a Type II functional response that is known to be destabilizing. We also show that dispersal delays reduce the amplitude of oscillations when the equilibrium is unstable, and therefore may help resolve the paradox of enrichment.     

Predator migration in response to prey density: What are the consequences?

A predator-prey metapopulation model with two identical patches and only migration of the predator is investigated. Local predator-prey interaction is described by the so-called Rosenzweig-MacArthur model, while the migration term of the predator is put in a nonlinear form, which is derived by extending the Holling time budget argument to migration. In particular, a dimensionless parameter theta is introduced to quantify the migration tendency of predators while they are handling their prey, which gives rise to a family of models connecting two extremes: predators have no inclination to migrate while handling prey (theta = 0) and standard diffusion (theta = 1). Various aspects of the model, including changes in the number and the stability of equilibria and limit cycles, are investigated. We then focus on the key question: "Does spatial structure lead to a substantial damping of the violent oscillations exhibited by many predator-prey models?". It is known that the answer is "yes" if one adopts standard diffusion (theta = 1). However, we present substantial evidence that the answer is "no" if one takes theta = 0. We conclude that the migration submodel is an important constituent of a spatial predator-prey model and that the issue deserves scrutiny, both experimentally and theoretically.     

Interplay between local dynamics and dispersal in discrete-time metapopulation models

The effects of synchronous dispersal on discrete-time metapopulation dynamics with local (patch) dynamics of the same (compensatory or overcompensatory) or mixed (compensatory and overcompensatory) types are explored. Single-species metapopulation models behave as single-species single-patch models, whenever all local patches are governed by compensatory dynamics. Dispersal gives rise to multiple attractors with complex basin structures, whenever some local patches are under overcompensatory dynamics. In mixed systems, dispersal is capable of altering the local dynamics from compensatory to overcompensatory dynamics and vice versa. Examples are provided of metapopulation models supporting multiple attractors with intermingled basins of attraction.     

Scaling up population dynamic processes in a ladybird–aphid system

Here, we study how scaling up to the metapopulation level affects predictions of a population dynamics model motivated by an aphidophagous predator–aphid system. The model incorporates optimization of egg distribution in predatory females, cannibalism among their offspring, and self-regulation of the prey population. These factors determine the within-year dynamics of the system and translate the numbers of prey and predator individuals at the beginning of the season into their numbers at the end of the season at the level of one patch—one suitable host plant or a group of these. At the end of each season, all populations of prey and all populations of predators are mixed (this simulates aphid host-alternation and ladybird migration to hibernation sites), and then redistributed at the beginning of the next season. Prey individuals are distributed at random among the patches as a “prey rain”, while adult predators that survived from the previous season optimize the distribution of their offspring, in that they prefer patches with sufficient amount of prey and absence of other predators. This redistribution followed by within-season dynamics is then iterated over many seasons. We look at whether small-scale trends in population dynamics predicted by this model are consistent with large-scale outcomes. Specifically, we show that even on the metapopulation scale, the impact of predators on prey metapopulation is relatively low. We further show how the dates of predator arrival to and departure from the system affect the qualitative behaviour of the model predictions.     

Evolutionary dynamics of prey exploitation in a metapopulation of predators

In well-mixed populations of predators and prey, natural selection favors predators with high rates of prey consumption and population growth. When spatial structure prevents the populations from being well mixed, such predators may have a selective disadvantage because they do not make full use of the prey's growth capacity and hence produce fewer propagules. The best strategy then depends on the degree to which predators can monopolize the exploitation of local prey populations, which in turn depends on the spatial structure, the number of migrants, and, in particular, the stochastic nature of the colonization process. To analyze the evolutionary dynamics of predators in a spatially structured predator-prey system, we performed simulations with a metapopulation model that has explicit local dynamics of nonpersistent populations, keeps track of the number of emigrants entering the migration pool, assumes individuals within local populations as well as within the migration pool to be well mixed, and takes stochastic colonization into account. We investigated which of the predator's exploitation strategies are evolutionarily stable and whether these strategies minimize the overall density of prey, as is the case in Lotka-Volterra-type models of competitive exclusion. This was analyzed by pairwise invasibility plots based on short-term simulations and tested by long-term simulation experiments of competition between resident and mutant predator-types that differed in one of the following parameters: the prey-to-predator conversion efficiency, the per capita prey consumption rate, or the per capita emigration rate from local populations. In addition, we asked which of these three strategies are most likely to evolve. Our simulations showed that under selection for conversion efficiency the predator-prey system always goes globally extinct yet persists under selection for consumption or emigration rates and that the evolutionarily stable (ES) exploitation strategies do not maximize local population growth rates. The most successful exploitation strategy minimizes the overall density of prey but does not make it settle exactly at the minimum. The system did not settle at the point where the mean time to co-invasion (i.e., immigration of a second predator in a local prey population) equals the mean local interaction time (an idea borne out from studies on host exploitation strategies in host-pathogen systems) but rather where the mean time to co-invasion was larger. The ES exploitation strategies represent more prudent strategies than the ones that minimize prey density. Finally, we show that-compared to consumption-emigration is a more likely target for selection to achieve prudent exploitation and that prudent exploitation strategies can evolve only provided the prey-to-predator conversion efficiency is subject to constraints.     

Metapopulation dynamics with quasi-local competition

Stepping-stone models for the ecological dynamics of metapopulations are often used to address general questions about the effects of spatial structure on the nature and complexity of population fluctuations. Such models describe an ensemble of local and spatially isolated habitat patches that are connected through dispersal. Reproduction and hence the dynamics in a given local population depend on the density of that local population, and a fraction of every local population disperses to neighboring patches. In such models, interesting dynamic phenomena, e.g. the persistence of locally unstable predator-prey interactions, are only observed if the local dynamics in an isolated patch exhibit non-equilibrium behavior. Therefore, the scope of these models is limited. Here we extend these models by making the biologically plausible assumption that reproductive success in a given local habitat not only depends on the density of the local population living in that habitat, but also on the densities of neighboring local populations. This would occur if competition for resources occurs between neighboring populations, e.g. due to foraging in neighboring habitats. With this assumption of quasi-local competition the dynamics of the model change completely. The main difference is that even if the dynamics of the local populations have a stable equilibrium in isolation, the spatially uniform equilibrium in which all local populations are at their carrying capacity becomes unstable if the strength of quasi-local competition reaches a critical level, which can be calculated analytically. In this case the metapopulation reaches a new stable state, which is, however, not spatially uniform anymore and instead results in an irregular spatial pattern of local population abundance. For large metapopulations, a huge number of different, spatially non-uniform equilibrium states coexist as attractors of the metapopulation dynamics, so that the final state of the system depends critically on the initial conditions. The existence of a large number of attractors has important consequences when environmental noise is introduced into the model. Then the metapopulation performs a random walk in the space of all attractors. This leads to large and complicated population fluctuations whose power spectrum obeys a red-shifted power law. Our theory reiterates the potential importance of spatial structure for ecological processes and proposes new mechanisms for the emergence of non-uniform spatial patterns of abundance and for the persistence of complicated temporal population fluctuations.     

食饵庇护所对斑块环境下Leslie-Gower捕食系统的影响

建立了一个显式含有空间庇护所的两斑块Leslie-Gower捕食者-食饵系统。假设只有食饵种群在斑块间以常数迁移率迁移,且在每个斑块上食饵间的迁移比局部捕食者-食饵相互作用发生的时间尺度要快。利用两个时间尺度,可以构建用来描述所有斑块总的食饵和捕食者密度的综合系统。数学分析表明,在一定条件下,存在唯一的正平衡点,并且此平衡点全局稳定。进一步,捕食者的数量随着食饵庇护所数量增加而降低;在一定条件下,食饵的数量随着食饵庇护所数量增加先增加后降低,在足够强的庇护所强度下,两物种出现灭绝。对比以往研究,利用显式含有和隐含空间庇护所的数学模型所得结论不一致,这意味着在研究庇护所对捕食系统种群动态影响时,空间结构可能起着重要作用。     

Dispersal effects on a discrete two-patch model for plant-insect interactions

A two-patch discrete time plant-insect model coupled through insect dispersal is studied. The model is based on three different phases: Plant growth is followed by the dispersal of insects followed by insect attacks. Our objective is to understand how different intensities of dispersal impact both local and global population dynamics of the two-patch model. Special attention is paid to two situations: When the single-patch model (i.e., in the absence of dispersal) is permanent and when the single-patch model exhibits Allee-like effects. The existence and stability of synchronous and asynchronous dynamics between two patches is explored. If the single-patch system is permanent, the permanence of the system in two patches is destroyed by extremely large dispersals and large attacking rates of insects, thus creating multiple attractors. If the single-patch model exhibits Allee-like effects, analytical and numerical results indicate that small intensity of dispersals can generate source-sink dynamics between two patches, while intermediate intensity of dispersals promote the extinction of insects in both patches for certain parameter ranges. Our study suggests a possible biology control strategy to stop the invasion of a pest by controlling its migration between patches.     

Effects of density-dependent migrations on stability of a two-patch predator-prey model

We consider a predator-prey model in a two-patch environment and assume that migration between patches is faster than prey growth, predator mortality and predator-prey interactions. Prey (resp. predator) migration rates are considered to be predator (resp. prey) density-dependent. Prey leave a patch at a migration rate proportional to the local predator density. Predators leave a patch at a migration rate inversely proportional to local prey population density. Taking advantage of the two different time scales, we use aggregation methods to obtain a reduced (aggregated) model governing the total prey and predator densities. First, we show that for a large class of density-dependent migration rules for predators and prey there exists a unique and stable equilibrium for migration. Second, a numerical bifurcation analysis is presented. We show that bifurcation diagrams obtained from the complete and aggregated models are consistent with each other for reasonable values of the ratio between the two time scales, fast for migration and slow for local demography. Our results show that, under some particular conditions, the density dependence of migrations can generate a limit cycle. Also a co-dim two Bautin bifurcation point is observed in some range of migration parameters and this implies that bistability of an equilibrium and limit cycle is possible.     

Host-parasitoid spatial ecology: a plea for a landscape-level synthesis

A growing body of literature points to a large-scale research approach as essential for understanding population and community ecology. Many of our advances regarding the spatial ecology of predators and prey can be attributed to research with insect parasitoids and their hosts. In this review, we focus on the progress that has been made in the study of the movement and population dynamics of hosts and their parasitoids in heterogeneous landscapes, and how this research approach may be beneficial to pest management programs. To date, few studies have quantified prey and predator rates and ranges of dispersal and population dynamics at the patch level--the minimum of information needed to characterize population structure. From host-parasitoid studies with sufficient data, it is clear that the spatial scale of dispersal can differ significantly between a prey and its predators, local prey extinctions can be attributed to predators and predator extinction risk at the patch level often exceeds that of the prey. It is also evident that populations can be organized as a single, highly connected (patchy) population or as semi-independent extinction-prone local populations that collectively form a persistent metapopulation. A prey and its predators can also differ in population structure. At the landscape level, agricultural studies indicate that predator effects on its prey often spill over between the crop and surrounding area (matrix) and can depend strongly on landscape structure (e.g. the proportion of suitable habitat) at scales extending well beyond the crop margins. In light of existing empirical data, predator-prey models are typically spatially unrealistic, lacking important details on boundary responses and movement behaviour within and among patches. The tools exist for conducting empirical and theoretical research at the landscape level and we hope that this review calls attention to fertile areas for future exploration.     

Habitat destruction in a simple predator-prey patch model: how predators enhance prey persistence and abundance

We model a metapopulation of predator-prey patches using both spatially implicit or mean-field (MF) and spatially explicit (SE) approaches. We show that in the MF model there are parameter regimes for which prey cannot persist in the absence of predators, but can in their presence. In addition, there are parameter regimes for which prey may persist in isolation, but the presence of predators will increase prey patch density. Predators may thus enhance prey persistence and overall abundance. The key mechanism responsible for this effect is the occurrence of prey dispersal from patches that are occupied by both prey and predators. In addition, these patches should be either long-lived, such as that occurs when predators keep prey from overexploiting its local resource, or the presence of a predator on a patch should significantly enhance the prey dispersal out of that patch. In the SE approach these positive effects of predators on prey persistence and abundance occur for even larger parameter ranges than in the MF model. Prey dispersal from predator-prey patches may thus be important for persistence of both species as a community, independent of the modeling framework studied. Comparison of the MF and SE approaches shows that local dispersal constraints can have the edge over global dispersal for the persistence of the metapopulation in regimes where the two species have a beneficial effect on each other. In general, our model provides an example of feedback in multiple-species metapopulations that can make the implementation of conservation schemes based on single-species arguments very risky.     

Predation across spatial scales in heterogeneous environments

A hierarchy of scales is introduced to the spatially heterogeneous Lotka-Volterra predator-prey diffusion model, and its effects on the model's spatial and temporal behavior are studied. When predators move on a large scale relative to prey, local coupling of the predator-prey interaction is replaced by global coupling. Prey with low dispersal ability become narrowly confined to the most productive habitats, strongly amplifying the underlying spatial pattern of the environment. As prey diffusion rate increases, the prey distribution spreads out and predator abundance declines. The model retains neutrally stable Lotka-Volterra temporal dynamics: different scales of predator and prey dispersal do not stabilize the interaction. The model predicts that, for prey populations that are limited by widely ranging predators, species with low dispersal ability should be restricted to discrete high density patches, and those with greater mobility should be more uniformly distributed at lower density.     

Slight phenotypic variation in predators and prey causes complex predator-prey oscillations

Predator-prey oscillations are expected to show a 1/4-phase lag between predator and prey. However, observed dynamics of natural or experimental predator-prey systems are often more complex. A striking but hardly studied example are sudden interruptions of classic 1/4-lag cycles with periods of antiphase oscillations, or periods without any regular predator-prey oscillations. These interruptions occur for a limited time before the system reverts to regular 1/4-lag oscillations, thus yielding intermittent cycles. Reasons for this behaviour are often difficult to reveal in experimental systems. Here we test the hypothesis that such complex dynamical behaviour may result from minor trait variation and trait adaptation in both the prey and predator, causing recurrent small changes in attack rates that may be hard to capture by empirical measurements. Using a model structure where the degree of trait variation in the predator can be explicitly controlled, we show that a very limited amount of adaptation resulting in 10–15% temporal variation in attack rates is already sufficient to generate these intermittent dynamics. Such minor variation may be present in experimental predator-prey systems, and may explain disruptions in regular 1/4-lag oscillations.     

Evolution of dispersal in a predator-prey metacommunity

Dispersal is crucial to allowing species inhabiting patchy or spatially subdivided habitats to persist globally despite the possibility of frequent local extinctions. Theoretical studies have repeatedly demonstrated that species that exhibit a regional metapopulation structure and are subject to increasing rates of local patch extinctions should experience strong selective pressures to disperse more rapidly despite the costs such increased dispersal would entail in terms of decreased local fitness. We extend these studies to consider how extinctions arising from predator-prey interactions affect the evolution of dispersal for species inhabiting a metacommunity. Specifically, we investigate how increasing a strong extinction-prone interaction between a predator and prey within local patches affects the evolution of each species' dispersal. We found that for the predator, as expected, evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) dispersal rates increased monotonically in response to increasing local extinctions induced by strong predator top-down effects. Unexpectedly for the prey, however, ESS dispersal rates displayed a nonmonotonic response to increasing predator-induced extinction rates-actually decreasing for a significant range of values. These counterintuitive results arise from how extinctions resulting from trophic interactions play out at different spatial scales: interactions that increase extinction rates of both species locally can, at the same time, decrease the frequency of interaction between the prey and predator at the metacommunity scale.