Temperate migrants and resident bird species in Afro‐tropical savannahs show similar levels of ecological generalism

The specificity of an animal's habitat requirements will determine its ability to deal with anthropogenic climate and habitat change. Migratory birds are thought to be particularly vulnerable to such change, but theory predicts that they should be largely generalists. This prediction was tested with the aim of assessing whether migratory Palaearctic‐breeding birds wintering in the savannah biome of Africa are more or less generalist in their habitat use compared with taxonomically and ecologically similar Afro‐tropical resident species. The degree of specialization of these species groups to certain habitat characteristics was assessed and compared by calculating the relative occurrence of the species along habitat gradients, where wide occurrence indicates generalism and narrow occurrence indicates specialism. Palaearctic migrants as a group could not clearly be distinguished as generalists relative to Afro‐tropical residents with respect to habitat attributes. The only indication of greater flexibility in Palaearctic migrants was a significant tendency to use habitats over a wider latitudinal range. The results suggest that migrants are generalists, but not necessarily more generalist than taxonomically similar resident species that also occur over a wide range of habitat types within the savannah biome. The availability of specific habitat requirements on the wintering grounds in Africa is therefore unlikely to be a primary limiting factor for many Afro‐Palaearctic migratory bird species.     

Cyprus wheatears Oenanthe cypriaca likely reach sub‐Saharan African wintering grounds in a single migratory flight

Long‐distance migratory flights with multiple stop‐overs, multiple wintering sites, and small‐scale connectivity in Afro‐Palearctic migrants are likely to increase their vulnerability to environmental change and lead to declining populations. Here we present the migration tracks and wintering locations of the first six Cyprus wheatears to be tracked with geolocators: a species with high survival and a stable population. We therefore predicted a non‐stop flight from Cyprus to sub‐Saharan wintering grounds, a single wintering area for each individual and a wide spread of wintering locations representing low migratory connectivity at the population level. The sub‐Saharan wintering grounds in south Sudan, Sudan and Ethiopia were likely reached by a single flight of an average straight‐line distance of 2538 km in ca 60 h, with an average minimum speed of 43.1 km h^–1. The high speed of migration probably ruled out stop‐overs greater than a few hours. Cyprus wheatears migrated from Cyprus in mid‐late October and most probably remained at a single location throughout winter; three out of five birds with available data may have used a second site < 100 km away during February; all returned between 7–22 March when accurate geolocation data are not possible due to the equinox. Wintering locations were spread over at least 950 km. There were no tag effects on survival. Cyprus wheatears showed a migratory strategy in accordance with their observed high survival rate and demonstrated a routine flight range that allows much of the Mediterranean and the Sahara to be crossed in a rapid two and a half‐day flight.     

Fine‐scale habitat use during the non‐breeding season suggests that winter habitat does not limit breeding populations of a declining long‐distance Palearctic migrant

For migrant birds, which habitats are suitable during the non‐breeding season influences habitat availability, population resilience to habitat loss, and ultimately survival. Consequently, habitat preferences during winter and whether habitat segregation according to age and sex occurs directly influences migration ecology, survival and breeding success. We tested the fine‐scale habitat preferences of a declining Palearctic migrant, the whinchat Saxicola rubetra, on its wintering grounds in west Africa. We explored the influence of habitat at the territory‐scale and whether dominance‐based habitat occupancy occurs by describing the variation in habitat characteristics across wintering territories, the degree of habitat change within territories held throughout winter, and whether habitat characteristics influenced territory size and space‐use within territories or differed with age and sex. Habitat characteristics varied substantially across territories and birds maintained the same territories even though habitat changed significantly throughout winter. We found no evidence of dominance‐based habitat occupancy; instead, territories were smaller if they contained more perching shrubs or maize crops, and areas with more perching shrubs were used more often within territories, likely because perches are important for foraging and territory defence. Our findings suggest that whinchats have non‐specialised habitat requirements within their wintering habitat of open savannah and farmland, and respond to habitat variation by adjusting territory size and space‐use within their territories instead of competing with conspecifics. Whinchats show a tolerance for human‐modified habitats and results support previous findings that some crop types may provide high‐quality wintering habitat by increasing perch density and foraging opportunities. By having non‐specialised requirements within broad winter habitat types, migrants are likely to be flexible to changing wintering conditions in Africa, both within and across winters, so possibly engendering some resilience to the rapid anthropogenic habitat degradation occurring throughout their wintering range.     

Carry‐over effects provide linkages across the annual cycle of a Neotropical migratory bird,the Louisiana Waterthrush Parkesia motacilla

Population limitation models of migratory birds have sought to include impacts from events across the full annual cycle. Previous work has shown that events occurring in winter result in some individuals transitioning to the breeding grounds earlier or in better physical condition than others, thereby affecting reproductive success (carry‐over effects). However, evidence for carry‐over effects from breeding to wintering grounds has been shown less often. We used feather corticosterone (CORT_f) levels of the migratory Louisiana Waterthrush Parkesia motacilla as a measure of the physiological state of birds at the time of moult on the breeding territory to investigate whether carry‐over effects provide linkages across the annual cycle of this stream‐obligate bird. We show that birds arriving on wintering grounds with lower CORT_f scores, indicating reduced energetic challenges or stressors at the time of moult, occupied higher quality territories, and that these birds then achieved a better body condition during the overwinter period. Body condition, in turn, was important in determining whether adult birds returned the following winter, with birds in better condition returning at higher rates. Together these data suggest a carry‐over effect from the breeding grounds to the wintering grounds that is further extended with respect to annual return rates. Very few other studies have linked conditions during the previous breeding season with latent effects during the subsequent overwintering period or with annual survival. This study shows that the effects of variation in energetic challenges or stressors can potentially carry over from the natal stream and accumulate over more than one life‐history period before being manifested in reduced survival. This is of particular relevance to models of population limitation in migratory birds.     

Comparing the seasonal survival of resident and migratory oystercatchers: carry‐over effects of habitat quality and weather conditions

Events happening in one season can affect life‐history traits at (the) subsequent season(s) by carry‐over effects. Wintering conditions are known to affect breeding success, but few studies have investigated carry‐over effects on survival. The Eurasian oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus is a coastal wader with sedentary populations at temperate sites and migratory populations in northern breeding grounds of Europe. We pooled continental European ringing‐recovery datasets from 1975 to 2000 to estimate winter and summer survival rates of migrant and resident populations and to investigate long‐term effects of winter habitat changes. During mild climatic periods, adults of both migratory and resident populations exhibited survival rates 2% lower in summer than in winter. Severe winters reduced survival rates (down to 25% reduction) and were often followed by a decline in survival during the following summer, via short‐term carry‐over effects. Habitat changes in the Dutch wintering grounds caused a reduction in food stocks, leading to reduced survival rates, particularly in young birds. Therefore, wintering habitat changes resulted in long‐term (>10 years) 8.7 and 9.4% decrease in adult annual survival of migrant and resident populations respectively. Studying the impact of carry‐over effects is crucial for understanding the life history of migratory birds and the development of conservation measures.     

Interspecific and intraspecific differences in habitat use and their conservation implications for Palaearctic harriers on Sahelian wintering grounds

The floodplains of the West‐African Sahel region have experienced extensive habitat transformation during the past four decades, coinciding with an impoverishment of raptor populations. We investigated foraging patterns of Palaearctic migratory Eurasian Marsh Harriers Circus aeruginosus, Pallid Harriers C. macrourus and Montagu’s Harriers C. pygargus on a floodplain system in northern Cameroon to assess species, sex‐ and age‐related habitat preferences. Sex and age have rarely been incorporated into general studies of raptor habitat associations, despite clear evidence of intrasexual and age‐related differences in foraging strategies and diet composition, potentially carrying strong conservation implications. We found evidence of sexual differences in foraging preference related to land use, particularly in the most sexually dimorphic Pallid Harrier, and evidence that juveniles used different habitats to adults. This constitutes the first quantitative documentation of such differentiation by Palaearctic raptors on African wintering grounds, indicating that general patterns of habitat use in wintering raptors may obscure sex‐ and age‐specific preferences. Contrary to expectations, we found limited evidence for interspecific foraging segregation. Food partitioning by prey mass was related to harrier body mass and facilitated by a diverse availability of prey on human‐transformed floodplains. Anticipated further large‐scale conversion of floodplain habitat into predominantly desiccated grasslands raises concerns about the survival of wintering harriers.     

The decline of Afro‐Palaearctic migrants and an assessment of potential causes

There is compelling evidence that Afro‐Palaearctic (A‐P) migrant bird populations have declined in Europe in recent decades, often to a greater degree than resident or short‐distance migrants. There appear to have been two phases of decline. The first in the 1960s–1970s, and in some cases into the early 1980s, largely affected species wintering predominantly in the arid Sahelian zone, and the second since the 1980s has mostly affected species wintering in the humid tropics and Guinea forest zone. Potential drivers of these declines are diverse and are spread across and interact within the migratory cycle. Our knowledge of declining species is generally better for the breeding than the non‐breeding parts of their life cycles, but there are significant gaps in both for many species. On the breeding grounds, degradation of breeding habitats is the factor affecting the demography of the largest number of species, particularly within agricultural systems and woodland and forests. In the non‐breeding areas, the interacting factors of anthropogenic habitat degradation and climatic conditions, particularly drought in the Sahel zone, appear to be the most important factors. Based on our synthesis of existing information, we suggest four priorities for further research: (1) use of new and emerging tracking technologies to identify migratory pathways and strategies, understand migratory connectivity and enable field research to be targeted more effectively; (2) undertake detailed field studies in sub‐Saharan Africa and at staging sites, where we understand little about distribution patterns, habitat use and foraging ecology; (3) make better use of the wealth of data from the European breeding grounds to explore spatial and temporal patterns in demographic parameters and relate these to migratory pathways and large‐scale patterns of habitat change and climatic factors; and (4) make better use of remote sensing to improve our understanding of how and where land cover is changing across these extensive areas and how this impacts A‐P migrants. This research needs to inform and underpin a flyway approach to conservation, evaluating a suite of drivers across the migratory cycle and combining this with an understanding of land management practices that integrate the needs of birds and people in these areas.     

Migratory connectivity of Palaearctic–African migratory birds and their responses to environmental change: the serial residency hypothesis

In most long‐distance migratory birds, juveniles migrate without their parents and so are likely to lack detailed knowledge of where to go. This suggests the potential for stochasticity to affect their choice of wintering area at a large scale (> 1000 km). Adults, in contrast, may re‐use non‐breeding sites that promote their survival, so removing uncertainty from their subsequent migrations. I review the evidence for large‐scale stochastic juvenile site selection followed by adult site fidelity, and then develop a ‘serial‐residency’ hypothesis based on these two traits as a framework to explain both the migratory connectivity and the population dynamics of migrant birds and how these are affected by environmental change. Juvenile stochasticity is apparent in the age‐dependent effects of weather or experimental displacement on the outcome of migration and in the very wide variation in the destinations of individuals originating from the same area. Adults have been shown to be very faithful to their wintering grounds and even to staging sites. The serial residency hypothesis predicts that migrants that show these two traits will rely on an individually unique but fixed series of temporally and spatially linked sites to complete their annual cycle. As a consequence, migratory connectivity will be apparent at a very small scale for individuals, but only at a large scale for a population, and juveniles are predicted to occur more often at less suitable sites than adults, so that survival will be lower for juveniles. Migratory connectivity will arise only through spatial and temporal autocorrelation with local environmental constraints, particularly on passage, and the distribution and age structure of the population may reflect past environmental constraints. At least some juveniles will discover suitable habitat that they may re‐use as adults, thus promoting overall population‐level resilience to environmental change, and suggesting value in site‐based conservation. However, because migratory connectivity only acts on a large scale, any population of migrants will contain individuals that encounter a change in suitability somewhere in their non‐breeding range, so affecting average survival. Differences in population trends will therefore reflect variation in local breeding output added to average survival from wintering and staging areas. The latter is likely to be declining given increasing levels of environmental degradation throughout Africa. Large‐scale migratory connectivity also has implications for the evolutionary ecology of migrants, generally because this is likely to lead to selection for generalist traits.     

Recent population declines in Afro‐Palaearctic migratory birds: the influence of breeding and non‐breeding seasons

Aim

Recent, rapid population declines in many Afro‐Palaearctic migratory bird species have focussed attention on changing conditions within Africa. However, processes influencing population change can operate throughout the annual cycle and throughout migratory ranges. Here, we explore the evidence for impacts of breeding and non‐breeding conditions on population trends of British breeding birds of varying migratory status and wintering ecology.

Location

Great Britain (England & Scotland).

Methods

Within‐ and between‐species variation in population trends is quantified for 46 bird species with differing migration strategies.

Results

Between 1994 and 2007, rates of population change in Scotland and England differed significantly for 19 resident and 15 long‐distance migrant species, but were similar for 12 short‐distance migrant species. Of the six long‐distance migrant species that winter in the arid zone of Africa, five are increasing in abundance throughout Britain. In contrast, the seven species wintering in the humid zone of Africa are all declining in England, but five of these are increasing in Scotland. Consequently, populations of both arid and humid zone species are increasing significantly faster in Scotland than England, and only the English breeding populations of species wintering in the humid zone are declining.

Main conclusions

Population declines in long‐distance migrants, especially those wintering in the humid zone, but not residents or short‐distance migrants suggest an influence of non‐breeding season conditions on population trends. However, the consistently less favourable population trends in England than Scotland of long‐distance migrant and resident species strongly suggest that variation in the quality of breeding grounds is influencing recent population changes. The declines in humid zone species in England, but not Scotland, may result from poorer breeding conditions in England exacerbating the impacts of non‐breeding conditions or the costs associated with a longer migration, while better conditions in Scotland may be buffering these impacts.

     

Patterns in departure phenology and mass gain on African non‐breeding territories prior to the Sahara crossing in a long‐distance migrant

Afro‐Palaearctic migrants are declining to a greater degree than other European species, suggesting that processes occurring in Africa or on migration may be driving these trends. Constraints on food availability on the wintering grounds may contribute to these declines but little is known about when and where these resource constraints may occur. Sufficient resources are particularly important prior to spring migration, when migrants must cross the Sahara Desert. We examined mass gain and departure phenology in a long‐distance Palaearctic passerine migrant to determine the degree to which pre‐migratory fattening occurs in their long‐term non‐breeding territories in the Guinea Savannah region of Africa. We monitored 75 Whinchats Saxicola rubetra for departure from their non‐breeding territories in one spring, and analysed mass data of 377 Whinchats collected over three non‐breeding seasons plus 141 migrating Whinchats caught in April over 8 years, all within the same few square kilometres of human‐modified Guinea Savannah in central Nigeria. Whinchats left their winter territories throughout April, with males departing on average 8 days earlier than females. However, there was no evidence that time of departure from territory was linked to age, body size or mass at capture. Whinchats departed their territories with a predicted mass of 16.8 ± 0.3 g, considerably less than the c. 24 g required for the average Whinchat to cross the Sahara directly. Comparing departure dates with arrival dates in southern Europe showed a discrepancy of at least 2 weeks, suggesting that many Whinchats spend considerable time on pre‐migratory fuelling outside their winter territory prior to crossing the Sahara. Overwintering birds gained mass slowly during February and March (0.03 g/day), and non‐territorial or migrating birds at a much higher rate in April (at least 0.23 g/day), with up to 20% of migrating Whinchats in April potentially having sufficient fuel loads to cross the Sahara directly from central Nigeria. Our results suggest that most Whinchats leave their winter territories to fatten up locally or, possibly, by staging further north, closer to the southern limit of the Sahara. Resource constraints are therefore likely to be particularly focused in West Africa during mid‐April and possibly at staging areas before the crossing of the Sahara Desert.     

Broad wintering range and intercontinental migratory divide within a core population of the near‐threatened pallid harrier

Aim To identify the migration routes and wintering grounds of the core populations of the near‐threatened pallid harrier, Circus macrourus, and highlight conservation needs associated with these phases of the annual cycle. Location Breeding area: north‐central Kazakhstan; Wintering areas: Sahel belt (Burkina Faso to Ethiopia) and north‐west India. Methods We used ring recovery data from Kazakhstan and satellite tracking data from 2007 to 2008 on six adults breeding in north‐central Kazakhstan to determine migration routes and locate wintering areas. In addition, one first‐year male was tagged in winter 2007–2008 in India. Results Data evidenced an intercontinental migratory divide within the core pallid harrier population, with birds wintering in either Africa or India. The six individuals tagged in north‐central Kazakhstan followed a similar route (west of the Caspian Sea and Middle East) towards east Africa, before spreading along the Sahel belt to winter either in Sudan, Ethiopia, Niger or Burkina Faso. Spring migration followed a shorter, more direct route, with marked interindividual variation. The bird tagged in India spent the summer in central Kazakhstan. Half of the signal losses (either because of failure or bird mortality) occurred on the wintering areas and during migration. Main conclusions Our study shows that birds from one breeding area may winter over a strikingly broad range within and across continents. The intercontinental migratory divide of pallid harriers suggests the coexistence of distinct migratory strategies within the core breeding population, a characteristic most likely shared by a number of threatened species in central Asia. Conservation strategies for species like the pallid harrier, therefore, require considering very large spatial scales with possibly area‐specific conservation issues. We highlight urgent research priorities to effectively inform the conservation of these species.     

High juvenile mortality during migration in a declining population of a long‐distance migratory raptor

Many populations of long‐distance migrants are declining and there is increasing evidence that declines may be caused by factors operating outside the breeding season. Among the four vulture species breeding in the western Palaearctic, the species showing the steepest population decline, the Egyptian Vulture Neophron percnopterus, is a long‐distance migrant wintering in Africa. However, the flyways and wintering areas of the species are only known for some populations, and without knowledge of where mortality occurs, effective conservation management is not possible. We tracked 19 juvenile Egyptian Vultures from the declining breeding population on the Balkan Peninsula between 2010 and 2014 to estimate survival and identify important migratory routes and wintering areas for this species. Mortality during the first autumn migration was high (monthly survival probability 0.75) but mortality during migration was exclusively associated with suboptimal navigation. All birds from western breeding areas and three birds from central and eastern breeding areas attempted to fly south over the Mediterranean Sea, but only one in 10 birds survived this route, probably due to stronger tailwind. All eight birds using the migratory route via Turkey and the Middle East successfully completed their first autumn migration. Of 14 individual and environmental variables examined to explain why juvenile birds did or did not successfully complete their first migration, the natal origin of the bird was the most influential. We speculate that in a declining population with fewer experienced adults, an increasing proportion of juvenile birds are forced to migrate without conspecific guidance, leading to high mortality as a consequence of following sub‐optimal migratory routes. Juvenile Egyptian Vultures wintered across a vast range of the Sahel and eastern Africa, and had large movement ranges with core use areas at intermediate elevations in savannah, cropland or desert. Two birds were shot in Africa, where several significant threats exist for vultures at continental scales. Given the broad distribution of the birds and threats, effective conservation in Africa will be challenging and will require long‐term investment. We recommend that in the short term, more efficient conservation could target narrow migration corridors in southern Turkey and the Middle East, and known congregation sites in African wintering areas.     

Demographic variation in timing and intensity of feather molt in migratory Fork‐tailed Flycatchers (Tyrannus s. savana)

Understanding the annual cycle of migratory birds is imperative for evaluating the evolution of life‐history strategies and developing effective conservation strategies. Yet, we still know little about the annual cycle of migratory birds that breed at south‐temperate latitudes of South America. We aged, sexed, and determined the progression and intensity of body, remige, and rectrix molt of migratory Fork‐tailed Flycatchers (Tyrannus s. savana) at breeding sites in southern South America and at wintering sites in northern South America. Molt of both body and flight feathers occurred primarily during the winter. In early winter, a similar proportion of young and adult flycatchers molted remiges and rectrices, but remige molt intensity (number of remiges molting) was greater and primary molt progression (mean primary feather molting) more advanced in adults. In late winter, remige molt intensity and primary molt progression did not differ between age groups. We found no difference between males and females either in the proportion of individuals molting in winter or in the intensity or progress of remige molt. Our results suggest that the nominate subspecies of Fork‐tailed Flycatcher undergoes one complete, annual molt on the wintering grounds, and represents the first comprehensive evaluation of molt timing of a migratory New World flycatcher that overwinters in the tropics. Given that breeding, molt, and migration represent three key events in the annual cycle of migratory birds, knowledge of the timing of these events is the first step toward understanding the possible tradeoffs migratory birds face throughout the year.     

The strength of migratory connectivity for birds en route to breeding through the Gulf of Mexico

The strength of migratory connectivity is a measure of the cohesion of populations among phases of the annual cycle, including breeding, migration, and wintering. Many Nearctic‐Neotropical species have strong migratory connectivity between breeding and wintering phases of the annual cycle. It is less clear if this strength persists during migration when multiple endogenous and exogenous factors may decrease the cohesion of populations among routes or through time along the same routes. We sampled three bird species, American redstart Setophaga ruticilla, ovenbird Seiurus aurocapilla, and wood thrush Hylocichla mustelina, during spring migration through the Gulf of Mexico region to test if breeding populations differentiate spatially among migration routes or temporally along the same migration routes and the extent to which within‐population timing is a function of sex, age, and carry‐over from winter habitat, as measured by stable carbon isotope values in claws (δ¹³C). To make quantitative comparisons of migratory connectivity possible, we developed and used new methodology to estimate the strength of migratory connectivity (MC) from probabilistic origin assignments identified using stable hydrogen isotopes in feathers (δ²H). We found support for spatial differentiation among routes by American redstarts and ovenbirds and temporal differentiation along routes by American redstarts. After controlling for breeding origin, the timing of American redstart migration differed among ages and sexes and ovenbird migration timing was influenced by carry‐over from winter habitat. The strength of migratory connectivity did not differ among the three species, with each showing weak breeding‐to‐spring migration MC relative to prior assessments of breeding‐wintering connectivity. Our work begins to fill an essential gap in methodology and understanding of the extent to which populations remain together during migration, information critical for a full annual cycle perspective on the population dynamics and conservation of migratory animals.     

Density‐dependent survival and recruitment in a long‐distance Palaearctic migrant,the Sand Martin Riparia riparia

Long‐term studies can provide powerful insights into the relative importance of different demographic and environmental factors determining avian population dynamics. Here we use 23 years of capture–mark–recapture data (1981–2003) to estimate recruitment and survival rates for a Sand Martin Riparia riparia population in Cheshire, NW England. Inter‐annual variation in recruitment and adult survival was positively related to rainfall in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds, but unrelated to weather conditions on the breeding grounds. After allowing for the effects of African rainfall, both demographic rates were negatively density‐dependent: adult survival was related to the size of the western European Sand Martin population (probably reflecting competition for resources in the shared wintering grounds) while recruitment was related to the size of the local study population in Cheshire (potentially reflecting competition for nesting sites or food). Local population size was more sensitive to variation in adult survival than to variation in recruitment, and an increase in population size after 1995 was driven mainly by the impact of more favourable conditions in the African wintering grounds on survival rates of adults. Overwinter survival in this long‐distance Palaearctic migrant is determined partly by the amount of suitable wetland foraging habitat in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds (which is limited by the extent of summer rainfall) and partly by the number of birds exploiting that habitat.     

Migration phenology and winter habitat quality are related to circulating androgen in a long‐distance migratory bird

In migratory birds, the timing of departure from wintering grounds is often dependant on the quality of habitat on an individual's territory and may influence individual fitness, resulting in an interaction of life history stages across large geographical distances. American redstart Setophaga ruticilla males who overwinter in high quality habitats arrive early to breed and subsequently produce more offspring than late arrivers. Since many migratory species overlap vernal migration with the physiological transition to breeding, we examined if breeding preparation plays a role in this seasonal interaction. We tested the hypothesis that early arriving male redstarts from high quality winter habitats are in superior breeding condition by simultaneously measuring winter habitat quality (stable‐carbon isotopes) and breeding preparation (circulating androgen, cloacal protuberance (CP) diameter) upon arrival at breeding grounds. Compared with late arrivers, early arriving males were from higher quality winter habitats and had higher androgen, but smaller CPs. Males arriving with higher androgen were in more advanced physiological migratory condition, as measured by haematocrit. Early arrivers were more likely to successfully breed, but there was no significant relationship between androgen upon arrival and breeding success. One possible explanation for these relationships is that androgen measured during arrival is most relevant in a migratory context, such that birds with high androgen may benefit from effects on migratory condition, positively influencing fitness through earlier arrival.     

Tropical winter habitat limits reproductive success on the temperate breeding grounds in a migratory bird

Identifying the factors that control population dynamics in migratory animals has been constrained by our inability to track individuals throughout the annual cycle. Using stable carbon isotopes, we show that the reproductive success of a long-distance migratory bird is influenced by the quality of habitat located thousands of kilometres away on tropical wintering grounds. For male American redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla), winter habitat quality influenced arrival date on the breeding grounds, which in turn affected key variables associated with reproduction, including the number of young fledged. Based on a winter-habitat model, females occupying high-quality winter habitat were predicted to produce more than two additional young and to fledge offspring up to a month earlier compared with females wintering in poor-quality habitat. Differences of this magnitude are highly important considering redstarts are single brooded, lay clutches of only three to five eggs and spend only two-and-a-half months on the breeding grounds. Results from this study indicate the importance of understanding how periods of the annual cycle interact for migratory animals. Continued loss of tropical wintering habitat could have negative effects on migratory populations in the following breeding season, minimizing density-dependent effects on the breeding grounds and leading to further population declines. If conservation efforts are to be successful, strategies must incorporate measures to protect all the habitats used during the entire annual cycle of migratory animals.     

Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long‐term population viability of the conservation‐reliant Kirtland's Warbler

Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long‐term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population‐level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long‐term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species.     

Wintering areas predict age‐related breeding phenology in a migratory passerine bird

Understanding connections between breeding, stopover and wintering grounds for long‐distance migratory birds can provide important insight into factors influencing demography and the strength of carry‐over effects among various periods of the annual cycle. Using previously described, multi‐isotope (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N, δ²H) feather isoscapes for Africa, we identified the most probable wintering areas for house martins Delichon urbica breeding at Badajoz in southwestern Spain. We identified two most‐probable wintering areas differing in isotopic signature in west Africa. We found that the probability to winter in the isotopic cluster two was related to age and sex of individuals. Specifically, experienced males (i.e. two years or older) winter in the isotopic cluster two with a greater probability than experienced females, whereas first‐year females winter in the isotopic cluster two with a greater probability than first‐year males. In addition, wintering area was correlated with breeding phenology, with individuals wintering in the isotopic cluster two initiating their clutches earlier than those wintering in the isotopic cluster one. For birds wintering in the isotopic cluster two, there was no relationship between age and clutch initiation date. In contrast, young birds wintering in the isotopic cluster one initiated their clutches earlier than experienced birds wintering in this area. There was no significant correlation between wintering area and clutch size or the number of fledglings produced. We hypothesize that the relationship among social status, population density and winter habitat quality should be the most important driver of the carry‐over effect we found for this population.     

Survivorship across the annual cycle of a migratory passerine,the willow flycatcher

Annual survivorship in migratory birds is a product of survival across the different periods of the annual cycle (i.e. breeding, wintering, and migration), and may vary substantially among these periods. Determining which periods have the highest mortality, and thus are potentially limiting a population, is important especially for species of conservation concern. To estimate survival probabilities of the willow flycatcher Empidonax traillii in each of the different periods, we combined demographic data from a 10‐year breeding season study with that from a 5‐year wintering grounds study. Estimates of annual apparent survival for breeding and wintering periods were nearly identical (65–66%), as were estimates of monthly apparent survival for both breeding and wintering stationary periods (98–99%). Because flycatchers spend at least half the year on the wintering grounds, overall apparent survivorship was lower (88%) on the wintering grounds than on the breeding grounds (97%). The migratory period had the highest mortality rate, accounting for 62% of the estimated annual mortality even though it comprises only one quarter or less of the annual cycle. The migratory period in the willow flycatcher and many other neotropical migrants is poorly understood, and further research is needed to identify sources of mortality during this crucial period.