Meta-analysis of phenotypic selection on flowering phenology suggests that early flowering plants are favoured

Flowering times of plants are important life-history components and it has previously been hypothesized that flowering phenologies may be currently subject to natural selection or be selectively neutral. In this study we reviewed the evidence for phenotypic selection acting on flowering phenology using ordinary and phylogenetic meta-analysis. Phenotypic selection exists when a phenotypic trait co-varies with fitness; therefore, we looked for studies reporting an association between two components of flowering phenology (flowering time or flowering synchrony) with fitness. Data sets comprising 87 and 18 plant species were then used to assess the incidence and strength of phenotypic selection on flowering time and flowering synchrony, respectively. The influence of dependence on pollinators, the duration of the reproductive event, latitude and plant longevity as moderators of selection were also explored. Our results suggest that selection favours early flowering plants, but the strength of selection is influenced by latitude, with selection being stronger in temperate environments. However, there is no consistent pattern of selection on flowering synchrony. Our study demonstrates that phenotypic selection on flowering time is consistent and relatively strong, in contrast to previous hypotheses of selective neutrality, and has implications for the evolution of temperate floras under global climate change.     

The strength of assortative mating for flowering date and its basis in individual variation in flowering schedule

Although it has been widely asserted that plants mate assortatively by flowering time, there is virtually no published information on the strength or causes of phenological assortment in natural populations. When strong, assortative mating can accelerate the evolution of plant reproductive phenology through its inflationary effect on genetic variance. We estimated potential assortative mating for flowering date in 31 old‐field species in Ontario, Canada. For each species, we constructed a matrix of pairwise mating probabilities from the individual flowering schedules, that is the number of flower deployed on successive dates. The matrix was used to estimate the phenotypic correlation between mates, ρ, for flowering date. We also developed a measure of flowering synchrony within species, S, based upon the eigenstructure of the mating matrix. The mean correlation between pollen recipients and potential donors for flowering date was  = 0.31 (range: 0.05–0.63). A strong potential for assortative mating was found among species with high variance in flowering date, flowering schedules of short duration and skew towards early flower deployment. Flowering synchrony, S, was negatively correlated with potential assortment (r = ?0.49), but we go on to show that although low synchrony is a necessary condition for phenological assortative mating, it may not be sufficient to induce assortment for a given phenological trait. The potential correlation between mates showed no seasonal trend; thus, as climate change imposes selection on phenology through longer growing seasons, spring‐flowering species are no more likely to experience an accelerated evolutionary response than summer species.     

Directional selection for early flowering is imposed by a re-associated herbivore - but no evidence of directional evolution

Alien plant species and the re-associated introduced herbivore are well-suited for gaining insights into ecological interactions between species and their evolutionary consequences. Ambrosia artemisiifolia was introduced to Japan in the 1880s, and its specialist insect herbivore Ophraella communa was introduced in 1996. Here, we experimentally tested the hypothesis that O. communa mediates selection on flowering phenology of A. artemisiifolia. We grew plants from stored seeds collected in 1998, 2000, 2002, 2006 and 2009 and measured phenotypic selection on the first flowering date in a common garden where half of the plants were protected from herbivore damage. We observed stabilizing selection for flowering day in the absence of herbivores but directional selection toward earlier flowering when herbivores were present. Flowering time differed between seeds collected in different years, but these differences showed no clear trend and the flowering time fluctuated from year to year. We conclude that the introduced specialist herbivore mediates directional selection for earlier flowering, but that its introduction has not been associated with a change in flowering time. The lack of evolutionary change may be due to limited genetic variation or that selection by the herbivore is counteracted by selection through other selective agents in some years.     

Phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution contribute to advancing flowering phenology in response to climate change

Anthropogenic climate change has already altered the timing of major life-history transitions, such as the initiation of reproduction. Both phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution can underlie rapid phenological shifts in response to climate change, but their relative contributions are poorly understood. Here, we combine a continuous 38 year field survey with quantitative genetic field experiments to assess adaptation in the context of climate change. We focused on Boechera stricta (Brassicaeae), a mustard native to the US Rocky Mountains. Flowering phenology advanced significantly from 1973 to 2011, and was strongly associated with warmer temperatures and earlier snowmelt dates. Strong directional selection favoured earlier flowering in contemporary environments (2010-2011). Climate change could drive this directional selection, and promote even earlier flowering as temperatures continue to increase. Our quantitative genetic analyses predict a response to selection of 0.2 to 0.5 days acceleration in flowering per generation, which could account for more than 20 per cent of the phenological change observed in the long-term dataset. However, the strength of directional selection and the predicted evolutionary response are likely much greater now than even 30 years ago because of rapidly changing climatic conditions. We predict that adaptation will likely be necessary for long-term in situ persistence in the context of climate change.     

Relationships between flowering phenology,plant size and reproductive success in shape Lotus corniculatus (Fabaceae)

Over three years the flowering phenology of individuals of Lotus corniculatus has been studied in relation to fruit set and seed predation to determine the relationships between four components of flowering time, plant size and reproductive success. Timings of first and peak flowering, and duration and synchrony of flowering differed between individuals in the same years. Between years, timing of first flowering was highly correlated for the same individuals, and was closely correlated with plant size and duration of flowering–larger plants flowered earlier and for a longer period. Peak flowering and synchrony were not correlated between-years for individuals.Fruit production and seed predation were correlated with some of the components of flowering phenology in some years, but not in others. The inconstancy of these relationships suggests that directional or stabilising selection is not acting consistently on the aspects of reproductive success studied in this work. The inconstancy of selection may result in the rather asynchronous flowering phenologies of individuals of L. corniculatus observed.We emphasize the importance of studying different components of flowering phenology in relation to individual plant size over several seasons. This work has shown that plant size not only has a direct effect on individual plant fecundity but also can influence flowering time and hence indirectly affect reproductive output.     

Directional selection on initial flowering date in Phlox drummondii (Polemoniaceae)

The fitness effects due to initial flowering date in Phlox drummondii were determined for three populations in central Texas (USA) over 3 yr (1990-1992). Mean fitness (seed set) always decreased with the later initiation of flowering. The likelihood of a plant fruiting differed with flowering date in five of the six instances (population by year combinations). Though plants that initiated flowering later tended to have spent more time in the vegetative stage and tended to die later in the year than did earlier flowering plants, this was not sufficient to overcome the reproductive penalties of flowering late. Plants that initiated flowering later in the season spent less time in the adult phase and were smaller. The mean number of flowers, fruits, and seeds per flowering plant always decreased with later flowering. Fruit set was negatively correlated with flowering date in four of the six population by year combinations. Nonparametric fitness functions were used to summarize predicted fitness among different initial flowering dates for each population on a yearly basis. Predicted mean fitness always declined nonlinearly with later flowering; the earliest flowering plants always had the highest predicted fitness. These fitness functions describe directional selection for the early initiation of flowering.     

Selection on flowering time and floral display in an alpine and a lowland population of Arabidopsis lyrata

To determine whether population differentiation in flowering time is consistent with differences in current selection, we quantified phenotypic selection acting through female reproductive success on flowering phenology and floral display in two Scandinavian populations of the outcrossing, perennial herb Arabidopsis lyrata in two years. One population was located in an alpine environment strongly affected by grazing, whereas the other was close to sea level and only moderately affected by herbivory. Multiple regression models indicated directional selection for early end of flowering in one year in the lowland population, and directional selection for early start of flowering in one year in the alpine population. As expected, there was selection for more inflorescences in the lowland population. However, in the alpine population, plants with many inflorescences were selectively grazed and the number of inflorescences produced was negatively related to female fitness in one year and not significantly related to female fitness in the second year. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that genetic differentiation in flowering phenology between the study populations is adaptive, and indicate that interactions with selective grazers may strongly influence selection on floral display in A. lyrata.     

毛茛状金莲花不同花期的花特征和访花昆虫的变化及表型选择

为了研究植物生长季内开花时间对花特征表型选择的影响,我们以青藏高原东缘高寒草地的毛茛状金莲花Trollius ranunculoides)为实验材料,在生长季内不同开花时间(花前期、花末期)测定花特征,观察访花昆虫的类群和访花频率,生长季结束后收集种子.根据昆虫访花的喜好和季节内类群与访花频率的变化,分析了不同开花时间毛茛状金莲花的花特征与昆虫的选择;并用种子产量表示雌性适合度,估计了毛茛状金莲花的花特征在不同开花时间所受的表型选择.结果表明:不同花期植物的花特征有显著差异,相应的访花昆虫的类群和频率也存在差异,不同类群昆虫访花喜好也不一样.蜂喜好花瓣和花萼较宽、花茎短和花茎数少的个体,这正符合花前期的特征,因而蜂的访花频率在花前期较高;蝇对花特征没有明显的偏好.而通过雌性适合度估计毛茛状金莲花花特征所受的表型选择则是:花前期,花茎较长和花茎数多的植株适合度大;花末期,花茎数多的植株适合度大.我们的研究表明:在植物生长季,花期的分化伴随着传粉昆虫活动的变化.不同花期,访花昆虫的变化可能对植物花特征的分化起了至关重要的作用.但是访花昆虫对花特征的选择与通过雌性适合度估计植物受到的选择不尽相同,这可能是由于其他因素造成的.     

Phenotypic selection on flowering phenology and pollination efficiency traits between Primula populations with different pollinator assemblages

Floral traits have largely been attributed to phenotypic selection in plant–pollinator interactions. However, the strength of this link has rarely been ascertained with real pollinators. We conducted pollinator observations and estimated selection through female fitness on flowering phenology and floral traits between two Primula secundiflora populations. We quantified pollinator‐mediated selection by subtracting estimates of selection gradients of plants receiving supplemental hand pollination from those of plants receiving open pollination. There was net directional selection for an earlier flowering start date at populations where the dominant pollinators were syrphid flies, and flowering phenology was also subjected to stabilized quadratic selection. However, a later flowering start date was significantly selected at populations where the dominant pollinators were legitimate (normal pollination through the corolla tube entrance) and illegitimate bumblebees (abnormal pollination through nectar robbing hole which located at the corolla tube), and flowering phenology was subjected to disruptive quadratic selection. Wider corolla tube entrance diameter was selected at both populations. Furthermore, the strength of net directional selection on flowering start date and corolla tube entrance diameter was stronger at the population where the dominant pollinators were syrphid flies. Pollinator‐mediated selection explained most of the between‐population variations in the net directional selection on flowering phenology and corolla tube entrance diameter. Our results suggested the important influence of pollinator‐mediated selection on floral evolution. Variations in pollinator assemblages not only resulted in variation in the direction of selection but also the strength of selection on floral traits.     

Simultaneous selection on vegetative and reproductive phenology in a perennial herb

The timing of different life‐history events is often correlated, and selection might only rarely be exerted independently on the timing of a single event. In plants, phenotypic selection has often been shown to favor earlier flowering. However, little is known about to what extent this selection acts directly versus indirectly via vegetative phenology, and if selection on the two traits is correlational. We estimated direct, indirect, and correlational phenotypic selection on vegetative and reproductive phenology over 3 years for flowering individuals of the perennial herb Lathyrus vernus. Direct selection favored earlier flowering and shorter timespans between leaf‐out and flowering in all years. However, early flowering was associated with early leaf‐out, and the direction of selection on leaf‐out day varied among years. As a result, selection on leaf‐out weakened selection for early flowering in one of the study years. We found no evidence of correlational selection. Our results highlight the importance of including temporally correlated traits when exploring selection on the phenology of seasonal events.     

Climate drives among‐year variation in natural selection on flowering time

To predict long‐term responses to climate change, we need to understand how changes in temperature and precipitation elicit both immediate phenotypic responses and changes in natural selection. We used 22 years of data for the perennial herb Lathyrus vernus to examine how climate influences flowering phenology and phenotypic selection on phenology. Plants flowered earlier in springs with higher temperatures and higher precipitation. Early flowering was associated with a higher fitness in nearly all years, but selection for early flowering was significantly stronger in springs with higher temperatures and lower precipitation. Climate influenced selection through trait distributions, mean fitness and trait?fitness relationships, the latter accounting for most of the among‐year variation in selection. Our results show that climate both induces phenotypic responses and alters natural selection, and that the change in the optimal phenotype might be either weaker, as for spring temperature, or stronger, as for precipitation, than the optimal response.     

Phenology and phenotypic natural selection on the flowering time of a deceit-pollinated tropical orchid, Myrmecophila christinae

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Flowering phenology is described and the effect of flowering time on pollination success is evaluated in the deceit-pollinated tropical orchid, Myrmecophila christinae. It was expected that, due to this species' deceit pollination strategy and low observed pollinator visit rate, there would be a higher probability of natural selection events favouring individuals flowering away from the population flowering peak. METHODS: The study covers two consecutive years and four populations of M. christinae located along the north coast of the Yucatán Peninsula. For phenological and pollination success data, a total of 110 individuals were monitored weekly in 1998, and 83 individuals in 1999, during all the flowering and fruiting season. KEY RESULTS: The results showed significant differences in the probability of donating and receiving pollen throughout the flowering season. The probability of receiving or donating pollen increased the further an individual flowering was from the flowering peak. Regression analysis showed directional and disruptive phenotypic natural selection gradients, suggesting the presence of selection events unfavourable to flowering during flowering peak, for both male success (pollen removal) and female success (fruit production). However, the intensity and significance of the natural selection events varied between populations from year to year. The variation between seasons and populations was apparently due to variations in the density of reproductive individuals in each population and each season. CONCLUSIONS: As in other deceit-pollinated orchids, natural selection in M. christinae favours individuals flowering early or late in relation to population peak flowering. However, results also suggested a fluctuating regime of selective events act on flowering time of M. christinae.     

浙江低山地区多用途植物无患子的开花物候特征

无患子(Sapindus mukorossi Gaertn.)是我国长江以南地区传统的重要绿化树种,其果皮富含皂苷,种仁富含油脂,是国家林业局审定的新型木本油料树种之一。为研究多用途树种无患子在浙江低山地区的开花特征,2012年和2013年连续两年对位于浙江省天台县9年生无患子人工林在群体、个体、花序和单花水平进行开花物候观测和比较,并运用开花日期、相对开花强度和同步性等指数研究了无患子开花物候特征。观察结果显示:无患子花呈浅黄白色,花的类型有雄花和两性花,没有发现雌花。雄花较两性花大(花径分别为5.09 mm和3.72 mm),雄蕊多为8枚,个别7或9、10枚;雌蕊退化仅留下浅绿色凸起。两性花花萼稍抱拢,花药藏于花被片下,雄蕊大多8枚,极少数7枚或9枚,柱头高于花药并伸出花苞,子房一般具3室,极少数4室或仅2室。无患子2012年的开花进程略早于2013年,其花期集中在在5月中旬至6月上旬,单花从花蕾膨大到花朵凋谢一般为8—9 d。在2012年和2013年,无患子在群体、个体和花序水平的花期约为30 d、20 d、11 d和28 d、19 d、13 d。个体水平的开花振幅均呈单峰曲线,年际间相似性较高;开花同步性在个体水平同步性较高(同步指数为0.868),表现出一种大量、集中的开花式样;相对开花强度在单株间分布范围相对宽泛,但主要分布在30%—40%,在年际间和年际内均呈现极显著差异。花期同步指数在两年的变异范围分别是0.81—0.97和0.70—0.98,不同单株开花同步性在年际内差异极显著,但在年际间差异性则不显著。由此可见,无患子的生殖资源分配存在明显的时空差异,较长的花期可以减少非法花粉的干扰、保持其种群基因多样性,遗传因子是决定无患子开花物候的主要因素,生态环境对无患子开花物候的影响还需进一步研究,本研究以期为探索无患子开花的主要限制因子奠定基础。     

POLLINATOR-MEDIATED SELECTION ON FLORAL DISPLAY AND FLOWERING TIME IN THE PERENNIAL HERB ARABIDOPSIS LYRATA

The evolution of floral display and flowering time in animal-pollinated plants is commonly attributed to pollinator-mediated selection. Yet, the causes of selection on flowering phenology and traits contributing to floral display have rarely been tested experimentally in natural populations. We quantified phenotypic selection on morphological and phenological characters in the perennial, outcrossing herb Arabidopsis lyrata in two years using female reproductive success as a proxy of fitness. To determine whether selection on floral display and flowering phenology can be attributed to interactions with pollinators, selection was quantified both for open-pollinated controls and for plants receiving supplemental hand-pollination. We documented directional selection for many flowers, large petals, late start of flowering, and early end of flowering. Seed output was pollen-limited in both years and supplemental hand-pollination reduced the magnitude of selection on number of flowers, and reversed the direction of selection on end of flowering. The results demonstrate that interactions with pollinators may affect the strength of selection on floral display and the direction of selection on phenology of flowering in natural plant populations. They thus support the contention that pollinators can drive the evolution of both floral display and flowering time.     

Phenotypic selection on flowering phenology and size in two dioecious plant species with different pollen vectors

Dioecious plants may be pollinated biotically by animals or abiotically via wind or water currents. It has been hypothesized that these two types of pollen vectors might impose contrasting selective pressures on plant flowering phenology. In the present study we describe the flowering phenology of two sympatric dioecious species with contrasting pollination modes: Mercurialis perennis (wind‐pollinated) and Tamus communis (insect‐pollinated). We estimated selection differentials and gradients for flowering time and flowering synchrony. As flowering time might depend on the accumulation of enough internal resources, we also estimated direct and indirect selection on plant size. Both species have male‐biased sexual ratios, and males are bigger and produce larger flower displays than females, but only in T. communis do males bloom earlier and for longer than females. Selection gradients suggest that selection tends to favor early‐flowering females of T. communis. There is no evidence of direct current selection on the flowering phenology of M. perennis. Intersexual differences in phenology fit with sex allocation and sexual selection theories. As we hypothesized, phenology of the animal‐pollinated species is under stronger selection than that of the wind‐pollinated species and we discuss the potential role of pollen vectors in shaping the flowering phenologies of the study species.     

Genotype-by-environment interactions leads to variable selection on life-history strategy in Common Evening Primrose (Oenothera biennis)

Monocarpic plant species, where reproduction is fatal, frequently exhibit variation in the length of their prereproductive period prior to flowering. If this life-history variation in flowering strategy has a genetic basis, genotype-by-environment interactions (G x E) may maintain phenotypic diversity in flowering strategy. The native monocarpic plant Common Evening Primrose (Oenothera biennis L., Onagraceae) exhibits phenotypic variation for annual vs. biennial flowering strategies. I tested whether there was a genetic basis to variation in flowering strategy in O. biennis, and whether environmental variation causes G x E that imposes variable selection on flowering strategy. In a field experiment, I randomized more than 900 plants from 14 clonal families (genotypes) into five distinct habitats that represented a natural productivity gradient. G x E strongly affected the lifetime fruit production of O. biennis, with the rank-order in relative fitness of genotypes changing substantially between habitats. I detected genetic variation in annual vs. biennial strategies in most habitats, as well as a G x E effect on flowering strategy. This variation in flowering strategy was correlated with genetic variation in relative fitness, and phenotypic and genotypic selection analyses revealed that environmental variation resulted in variable directional selection on annual vs. biennial strategies. Specifically, a biennial strategy was favoured in moderately productive environments, whereas an annual strategy was favoured in low-productivity environments. These results highlight the importance of variable selection for the maintenance of genetic variation in the life-history strategy of a monocarpic plant.     

Positive effects of flower abundance and synchronous flowering on pollination success,and pollinia dispersal in rewardless Changnienia amoena (Orchidaceae)

Pollination success and pollen dispersal in natural populations depend on the spatial‐temporal variation of flower abundance. For plants that lack rewards for pollinators, pollination success is predicted to be negatively related to flower density and flowering synchrony. We investigated the relationships between pollination success and flower abundance and flowering synchrony, and estimated pollinia dispersal distance in a rewardless species, Changnienia amoena (Orchidaceae). The results obtained in the present study revealed that male pollination success was negatively influenced by population size but was positively affected by population density, whereas female pollination success was independent of both population size and density. Phenotypic analysis suggested that highly synchronous flowering was advantageous through total pollination success, which is in contrast to previous studies. These results indicate that pollination facilitation rather than competition for pollinator visits occurs in this rewardless plant. The median distance of pollinia dispersal was 11.5 m (mean distance = 17.5 m), which is comparable to that of other rewardless plants but longer than for rewarding plants. However, pollen transfer occured mainly within populations; pollen import was a rare event. Restricted gene flow by pollinia and seeds probably explains the previous population genetic reporting a high degree of genetic differentiation between populations. © 2010 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2010, 99 , 477–488.     

Consequences of sexually dimorphic timing of emergence and flowering in Silene latifolia

1 Males and females of dioecious plant species often differ in a variety of secondary characteristics, such as size, flower number and flowering time, suggesting that dioecious species have sex-specific selection histories. However, a potential source of these dimorphic traits is age differences between males and females. By sowing 3000 seeds of the dioecious perennial, Silene latifolia (Caryophyllaceae), on a single day, we were able to assess the contribution of sex differences in emergence time to the development of sexually dimorphic adult traits.
2 Females emerged before males in our experimental field population, but on average males flowered first. Age differences between males and females did not therefore cause the earlier flowering of males.
3 The consequence of the detected differences in emergence and phenology between males and females was explored by path analysis. Emergence time had a strong direct effect on flower production as well as an indirect effect through flowering time. The regression coefficient of flowering time on emergence time was significantly larger for male plants.
4 A phenotypic selection analysis revealed that seedlings emerging early suffered greater mortality than those emerging later. Seedlings emerging early, however, developed into plants with more flowers, indicating that there was a trade-off between survivorship and reproductive performance. Seeds with intermediate emergence times had the highest total fitness, indicating the presence of stabilizing selection. Despite the strong mortality selection against early emergers, we detected no shift in the sex ratio compared with the sex ratio of seeds matured under low-mortality greenhouse conditions.     

Timing of flowering and intensity of attack by a butterfly herbivore in a polyploid herb

Timing of plant development both determines the abiotic conditions that the plant experiences and strongly influences the intensity of interactions with other organisms. Plants and herbivores differ in their response to environmental cues, and spatial and temporal variation in environmental conditions might influence the synchrony between host plants and herbivores, and the intensity of their interactions. We investigated whether differences in first day of flowering among and within 21 populations of the polyploid herb Cardamine pratensis influenced the frequency of oviposition by the butterfly Anthocharis cardamines during four study years. The proportion of plants that became oviposited upon differed among populations, but these differences were not related to mean flowering phenology within the population in any of the four study years. Attack rates in the field were also not correlated with resistance to oviposition estimated under controlled conditions. Within populations, the frequency of butterfly attack was higher in early‐flowering individuals in two of the four study years, while there was no significant relationship in the other 2 years. Larger plants were more likely to become oviposited upon in all 4 years. The effects of first flowering day and size on the frequency of butterfly attack did not differ among populations. The results suggest that differences in attack intensities among populations are driven mainly by differences in the environmental context of populations while mean differences in plant traits play a minor role. The fact that within populations timing of flowering influenced the frequency of herbivore attack only in some years and suggests that herbivore‐mediated selection on plant phenology differs among years, possibly because plants and herbivores respond differently to environmental cues.