Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the spatial distribution of zonal forest communities in Switzerland

Abstract. A spatially explicit, climate-sensitive vegetation model is presented to simulate both present and future distribution of potential natural vegetation types in Switzerland at the level of zonal forest communities. The model has two versions: (1) a ‘basic’ version using geographical region, aspect, bedrock (represented by soil pH), and elevation, and (2) a ‘climate-sensitive’ version obtained by replacing elevation (complex environmental gradient) with temperature (climatic factor). Version 2 is used to predict vegetation response under different (today's and projected) climatic conditions. Two regional climate scenarios are applied: (1) assuming an annual mean temperature increase of 1.1 — 1.4 °C, and (2) assuming an increase of 2.2 — 2.75 °C. Both scenarios result in significant changes of the spatial vegetation patterns as compared with today's climatic conditions. In scenario 1, ca. 33 % of the sample points remain unchanged in terms of the simulated zonal forest community; in scenario 2, virtually all sample points change. The most noticeable changes occur on the Swiss Plateau with Carpinion forests (zonal vegetation of present colline belt) expanding to areas that are occupied today by submontane and low-montane Fagus forests. To estimate the reliability of the simulation, quantitative (comparison with field mapping) and qualitative (comparison with climate types in the Alpine region) tests are performed and the main limitations of the approach are evaluated.     

Raised peat bog development and possible responses to environmental changes during the mid- to late-Holocene. Can the palaeoecological record be used to predict the nature and response of raised peat bogs to future climate change?

Palaeoecological analyses of raised peat bog deposits in northwest Europe show the naturalness, antiquity and robust response of these ecosystems to environmental changes from c. 7800 years ago to the present. A review of the techniques used to identify these long-term features is presented and the role of climate change, autogenic change processes and human disturbance is discussed. Millennial records of vegetation changes recorded in peat deposits demonstrate the response (often rapid) of raised peat bog vegetation to climatic changes during the mid-Holocene, Bronze Age/Iron Age transition and the Little Ice Age. Greenhouse warming scenarios exceed the reconstructed Holocene record of climatic changes (c. the last 11, 500 years), and bog-water tables may fall considerably. A combination of centennial palaeoecological analyses of bogs affected by human disturbance and experimental manipulations have been used as analogues for the potential response of raised peat bog vegetation to these changes. These show that possible greenhouse gas climate forcing scenarios may exceed the ability of Sphagnum- dominated raised peat bogs to respond to projected increases in summer temperature and decreases in summer precipitation. In combination with increasing N deposition, a loss of their Sphagnum-rich vegetation and increases in the abundance of vascular plants could occur on decadal timescales.     

Diversity of forest vegetation across a strong gradient of climatic continentality: Western Sayan Mountains, southern Siberia

Southern Siberian mountain ranges encompass strong climatic contrasts from the relatively oceanic northern foothills to strongly continental intermountain basins in the south. Landscape-scale climatic differences create vegetation patterns, which are analogous to the broad-scale vegetation zonation over large areas of northern Eurasia. In their southern, continental areas, these mountains harbour forest types which potentially resemble the full-glacial forests recently reconstructed for Central Europe. To identify forest vegetation–environment relationships in the southern Siberian mountain ranges, forest vegetation of the Western Sayan Mountains was sampled on a 280 km transect running from the northern foothills with oceanic climatic features to the continental Central Tuvinian Basin in the south. Based on the species composition, vegetation was classified into hemiboreal forests, occurring at drier and summer-warm sites with high-pH soil, and taiga, occurring at wetter, summer-cool sites with acidic soil. Hemiboreal forests included Betula pendula-Pinus sylvestris mesic forest, Larix sibirica dry forest and Pinus sylvestris dry forest. Taiga included Abies sibirica-Betula pendula wet forest, Abies sibirica-Pinus sibirica mesic forest and Pinus sibirica-Picea obovata continental forest. Hemiboreal forests were richer in vascular plant species, while taiga was richer in ground-dwelling cryptogams. Vegetation–environment relationships were analysed by indirect and direct ordination. Winter and summer temperatures and precipitation exerted a dominant influence on species composition. Soil pH was also an important correlate of species composition, but this factor itself was probably controlled by precipitation. At a more local scale, the main source of variation in species composition was topography, producing landscape patterns of contrasting plant communities on slopes of different aspects and valley bottoms. The response of tree species to major environmental factors was expressed with Huisman–Olff–Fresco models. Larix sibirica appeared to be most resistant to drought and winter frosts, Pinus sibirica was adapted to low temperatures both in winter and summer, and Picea obovata had an intermediate response to climate. Betula pendula, Pinus sylvestris and Populus tremula were associated with the warmest sites with intermediate precipitation, while Abies sibirica was the most moisture-demanding species, sensitive to deep winter frosts.     

Abundance and diversity of birch‐feeding leafminers along latitudinal gradients in northern Europe

Latitudinal patterns in biotic interactions, including herbivory, have been widely debated during the past years. In particular, recent meta‐analysis questioned the hypothesis that herbivory increases from the poles towards the equator. Our study was designed to verify this hypothesis by exploring latitudinal patterns in abundance and diversity of birch‐feeding insect herbivores belonging to the leafminer guild in northern Europe, from 59° to 69°N. We collected branches from five mature trees of two birch species (Betula pendula and B. pubescens) at each study site (ten sites for each of five latitudinal gradients) twice per season (in early and late summer of 2008–2011) and attributed all mines found on leaves of these branches to a certain taxon of insects. Latitudinal patterns were quantified by calculating Spearman rank correlation coefficients between both abundance and diversity of leafmining taxa and latitudes of sampling sites. In general, both abundance and diversity of leafminers significantly decreased with latitude. However, we discovered pronounced variation in patterns of latitudinal changes among study years and leafminer taxa. Variation among study years was best explained by mean temperatures in July at the northern ends of our gradients. During cold years, abundance of leafminers significantly decreased with latitude, while during warm years the abundance was either independent of latitude or even increased towards the pole. In the northern boreal forests (66° to 69°N), herbivores demonstrated larger changes in densities in response to temperature variations than in the boreo‐nemoral forests (59° to 62°N). Our data suggest that climate warming will result in a stronger increase in herbivory at higher latitudes than at lower latitudes.     

Is vegetation in equilibrium with climate? How to interpret late-Quaternary pollen data

Current methods for estimating past climatic patterns from pollen data require that the vegetation be in dynamic equilibrium with the climate. Because climate varies continuously on all time scales, judgement about equilibrium conditions must be made separately for each frequency band (i.e. time scale) of climatic change. For equilibrium conditions to exist between vegetation and climatic changes at a particular time scale, the climatic response time of the vegetation must be small compared to the time scale of climatic variation to which it is responding. The time required for vegetation to respond completely to climatic forcing at a time scale of 10⁴ yr is still unknown, but records of the vegetational response to climatic events of 500-to 1000-yr duration provide evidence for relatively short response times. Independent estimates for the possible patterns and timing of late-Quaternary climate changes suggest that much of the vegetational evidence previously interpreted as resulting from disequilibrium conditions can instead be interpreted as resulting from the individualistic response of plant taxa to the different regional patterns of temperature and precipitation change. The differences among taxa in their response to climate can lead a) to rates and direction of plant-population movements that differ among taxa and b) to fossil assemblages that differ from any modern assemblage. An example of late-Holocene vegetational change in southern Quebec illustrates how separate changes in summer and winter climates may explain the simultaneous expansion of spruce (Picea) populations southward and beech (Fagus) populations northward.     

Mycorrhizal fungal abundance is affected by long-term climatic manipulations in the field

Climate change treatments – winter warming, summer drought and increased summer precipitation – have been imposed on an upland grassland continuously for 7 years. The vegetation was surveyed yearly. In the seventh year, soil samples were collected on four occasions through the growing season in order to assess mycorrhizal fungal abundance. Mycorrhizal fungal colonisation of roots and extraradical mycorrhizal hyphal (EMH) density in the soil were both affected by the climatic manipulations, especially by summer drought. Both winter warming and summer drought increased the proportion of root length colonised (RLC) and decreased the density of external mycorrhizal hyphal. Much of the response of mycorrhizal fungi to climate change could be attributed to climate‐induced changes in the vegetation, especially plant species relative abundance. However, it is possible that some of the mycorrhizal response to the climatic manipulations was direct – for example, the response of the EMH density to the drought treatment. Future work should address the likely change in mycorrhizal functioning under warmer and drier conditions.     

Recent climate hiatus revealed dual control by temperature and drought on the stem growth of Mediterranean Quercus ilex

A better understanding of stem growth phenology and its climate drivers would improve projections of the impact of climate change on forest productivity. Under a Mediterranean climate, tree growth is primarily limited by soil water availability during summer, but cold temperatures in winter also prevent tree growth in evergreen forests. In the widespread Mediterranean evergreen tree species Quercus ilex, the duration of stem growth has been shown to predict annual stem increment, and to be limited by winter temperatures on the one hand, and by the summer drought onset on the other hand. We tested how these climatic controls of Q. ilex growth varied with recent climate change by correlating a 40‐year tree ring record and a 30‐year annual diameter inventory against winter temperature, spring precipitation, and simulated growth duration. Our results showed that growth duration was the best predictor of annual tree growth. We predicted that recent climate changes have resulted in earlier growth onset (?10 days) due to winter warming and earlier growth cessation (?26 days) due to earlier drought onset. These climatic trends partly offset one another, as we observed no significant trend of change in tree growth between 1968 and 2008. A moving‐window correlation analysis revealed that in the past, Q. ilex growth was only correlated with water availability, but that since the 2000s, growth suddenly became correlated with winter temperature in addition to spring drought. This change in the climate–growth correlations matches the start of the recent atmospheric warming pause also known as the ‘climate hiatus’. The duration of growth of Q. ilex is thus shortened because winter warming has stopped compensating for increasing drought in the last decade. Decoupled trends in precipitation and temperature, a neglected aspect of climate change, might reduce forest productivity through phenological constraints and have more consequences than climate warming alone.     

Variation in modern pollen from tropical evergreen forests and the monsoon seasonality gradient in SW India

Abstract. This study analyses the pollen signature of tropical lowland forests (< 1000 m a.s.l.) in the Asian monsoon climate. Its aim is to investigate how well the pollen data can reproduce the vegetation patterns in tropical India, and how the variations in the pollen composition are related to the gradient of decreasing plant moisture availability (measured by the ratio of actual over equilibrium evapotranspiration) that is associated with the strong seasonality of precipitation that characterizes the monsoon climate regime. We used canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) to relate the variations in the pollen composition of 71 surface soil samples from evergreen and semi‐evergreen forests distributed along the western coast of south India (8° 48’ N‐15° 08’ N), with the climate characteristics of the sampling sites. We show that variations in plant moisture availability strongly determine variations in the pollen composition; for example evergreen and semi‐evergreen forests can be distinguished on the basis of their pollen assemblages. Variations in the mean temperature of the coldest month associated with elevation also determine distinct pollen assemblages; for example evergreen forests above 800 m a.s.l. present different pollen signatures than those below this altitude/temperature limit. Variations in the relative abundance of some pollen taxa are strongly related to plant moisture availability and taxa indicators of climate can be identified. Hence, modern pollen assemblages from tropical forests in south India carry considerable information about vegetation patterns and climate. Paleoclimatic changes, notably in the monsoon season, could be quantified.     

Climate‐ and successional‐related changes in functional composition of European forests are strongly driven by tree mortality

Intense droughts combined with increased temperatures are one of the major threats to forest persistence in the 21st century. Despite the direct impact of climate change on forest growth and shifts in species abundance, the effect of altered demography on changes in the composition of functional traits is not well known. We sought to (1) quantify the recent changes in functional composition of European forests; (2) identify the relative importance of climate change, mean climate and forest development for changes in functional composition; and (3) analyse the roles of tree mortality and growth underlying any functional changes in different forest types. We quantified changes in functional composition from the 1980s to the 2000s across Europe by two dimensions of functional trait variation: the first dimension was mainly related to changes in leaf mass per area and wood density (partially related to the trait differences between angiosperms and gymnosperms), and the second dimension was related to changes in maximum tree height. Our results indicate that climate change and mean climatic effects strongly interacted with forest development and it was not possible to completely disentangle their effects. Where recent climate change was not too extreme, the patterns of functional change generally followed the expected patterns under secondary succession (e.g. towards late‐successional short‐statured hardwoods in Mediterranean forests and taller gymnosperms in boreal forests) and latitudinal gradients (e.g. larger proportion of gymnosperm‐like strategies at low water availability in forests formerly dominated by broad‐leaved deciduous species). Recent climate change generally favoured the dominance of angiosperm‐like related traits under increased temperature and intense droughts. Our results show functional composition changes over relatively short time scales in European forests. These changes are largely determined by tree mortality, which should be further investigated and modelled to adequately predict the impacts of climate change on forest function.     

Responses of competitive understorey species to spatial environmental gradients inaccurately explain temporal changes

Understorey plant communities play a key role in the functioning of forest ecosystems. Under favourable environmental conditions, competitive understorey species may develop high abundances and influence important ecosystem processes such as tree regeneration. Thus, understanding and predicting the response of competitive understorey species as a function of changing environmental conditions is important for forest managers. In the absence of sufficient temporal data to quantify actual vegetation changes, space-for-time (SFT) substitution is often used, i.e. studies that use environmental gradients across space to infer vegetation responses to environmental change over time. Here we assess the validity of such SFT approaches and analysed 36 resurvey studies from ancient forests with low levels of recent disturbances across temperate Europe to assess how six competitive understorey plant species respond to gradients of overstorey cover, soil conditions, atmospheric N deposition and climatic conditions over space and time. The combination of historical and contemporary surveys allows (i) to test if observed contemporary patterns across space are consistent at the time of the historical survey, and, crucially, (ii) to assess whether changes in abundance over time given recorded environmental change match expectations from patterns recorded along environmental gradients in space. We found consistent spatial relationships at the two periods: local variation in soil variables and overstorey cover were the best predictors of individual species’ cover while interregional variation in coarse-scale variables, i.e. N deposition and climate, was less important. However, we found that our SFT approach could not accurately explain the large variation in abundance changes over time. We thus recommend to be cautious when using SFT substitution to infer species responses to temporal changes.     

Recent vegetation changes at the high‐latitude tree line ecotone are controlled by geomorphological disturbance,productivity and diversity

Aim We test how productivity, disturbance rate, plant functional composition and species richness gradients control changes in the composition of high‐latitude vegetation during recent climatic warming. Location Northern Fennoscandia, Europe. Methods We resampled tree line ecotone vegetation sites sampled 26 years earlier. To quantify compositional changes, we used generalized linear models to test relationships between compositional changes and environmental gradients. Results Compositional changes in species abundances are positively related to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)‐based estimate of productivity gradient and to geomorphological disturbance. Competitive species in fertile sites show the greatest changes in abundance, opposed to negligible changes in infertile sites. Change in species richness is negatively related to initial richness, whereas geomorphological disturbance has positive effects on change in richness. Few lowland species have moved towards higher elevations. Main conclusions The sensitivity of vegetation to climate change depends on a complex interplay between productivity, physical and biotic disturbances, plant functional composition and richness. Our results suggest that vegetation on productive sites, such as herb‐rich deciduous forests at low altitudes, is more sensitive to climate warming than alpine tundra vegetation where grazing may have strong buffering effects. Geomorphological disturbance promotes vegetation change under climatic warming, whereas high diversity has a stabilizing effect.     

Spatial and altitudinal bioclimatic zones of the Italian peninsula identified from a beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) tree-ring network

A network of 24 beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) tree-ring chronologies has been developed for the Italian peninsula. Principal component and cluster analyses were used to identify geographical and altitudinal patterns of tree growth. Correlations and response functions were then applied to the main modes of tree-ring variability to uncover climatic signals. In a landscape occupied by humans for millennia, this approach provided a detailed quantitative ecological characterization of forest types. Altitude was significantly correlated with dendrochronological parameters. The Alps and northern Apennines could be distinguished from the central-southern Apennines. In central Italy, we recognized three different vegetation belts occupied by beech forests, from low- to high-elevation sites. Summer drought impacted beech growth with different intensity at different elevations, depending on the onset and duration of the growing season. Moreover, low-elevation beech forests showed a distinct late spring climate signal, which was opposite to that of high-elevation sites. The coherent geographical and ecological patterns of tree-ring variability suggest that dendrochronological networks help define bioclimatic zones and forest types.     

The role of demography,intra‐species variation,and species distribution models in species' projections under climate change

Organisms are projected to shift their distribution ranges under climate change. The typical way to assess range shifts is by species distribution models (SDMs), which predict species’ responses to climate based solely on projected climatic suitability. However, life history traits can impact species’ responses to shifting habitat suitability. Additionally, it remains unclear if differences in vital rates across populations within a species can offset or exacerbate the effects of predicted changes in climatic suitability on population viability. In order to obtain a fuller understanding of the response of one species to projected climatic changes, we coupled demographic processes with predicted changes in suitable habitat for the monocarpic thistle Carlina vulgaris across northern Europe. We first developed a life history model with species‐specific average fecundity and survival rates and linked it to a SDM that predicted changes in habitat suitability through time with changes in climatic variables. We then varied the demographic parameters based upon observed vital rates of local populations from a translocation experiment. Despite the fact that the SDM alone predicted C. vulgaris to be a climate ‘winner’ overall, coupling the model with changes in demography and small‐scale habitat suitability resulted in a matrix of stable, declining, and increasing patches. For populations predicted to experience declines or increases in abundance due to changes in habitat suitability, altered fecundity and survival rates can reverse projected population trends.     

Monitoring biogeographical response to climate change: The potential role of aeropalynology

To test models predicting biological reponse to future climate change, it is essential to find climatically-sensitive, easily monitored biological indicators that respond to climate change. Routine monitoring of airborne pollen, now undertaken on a near-global basis, could be adapted for this purpose. Analysis of spatial and seasonal variations in pollen levels in New Zealand suggests that the timing of onset and peak abundance of certain pollen taxa should be explored as possible bio-indicators of climate change. The onset of the airborne grass pollen season during the summer of 1988/89 varied consistently with latitude, and hence temperature, with the season in Southland commencing 8--9 days after Northland. However, these patterns were only apparent after sampling sites were separated into two groups reflecting predominantly urban or rural pollen sources. A less consistent north to south trend was apparent in the frequency of high (30 grains/m³) grass pollen levels, with high levels frequent in North Island localities in November, December and January and in southern localities during December and January. The successive onset of pollen seasons for the principal tree species during the spring-to-early summer warming interval may also be a useful bio-indicator of climate change. As well as assisting forecasts of the onset of the pollinosis season, these biogeographical patterns, reflecting climatic variation with latitude, suggest that routine aeropalynological monitoring might provide early signals of vegetation response to climate change. These conclusions are supported by recent investigations of long-term aeropalynological datasets in Europe that indicate earlier onset of pollen seasons in response to recent global warming.     

Too hot to die? The effects of vegetation shading on past,present, and future activity budgets of two diurnal skinks from arid Australia

Behavioral thermoregulation is an important mechanism allowing ectotherms to respond to thermal variations. Its efficiency might become imperative for securing activity budgets under future climate change. For diurnal lizards, thermal microhabitat variability appears to be of high importance, especially in hot deserts where vegetation is highly scattered and sensitive to climatic fluctuations. We investigated the effects of a shading gradient from vegetation on body temperatures and activity timing for two diurnal, terrestrial desert lizards, Ctenotus regius, and Morethia boulengeri, and analyzed their changes under past, present, and future climatic conditions. Both species’ body temperatures and activity timing strongly depended on the shading gradient provided by vegetation heterogeneity. At high temperatures, shaded locations provided cooling temperatures and increased diurnal activity. Conversely, bushes also buffered cold temperature by saving heat. According to future climate change scenarios, cooler microhabitats might become beneficial to warm‐adapted species, such as C. regius, by increasing the duration of daily activity. Contrarily, warmer microhabitats might become unsuitable for less warm‐adapted species such as M. boulengeri for which midsummers might result in a complete restriction of activity irrespective of vegetation. However, total annual activity would still increase provided that individuals would be able to shift their seasonal timing towards spring and autumn. Overall, we highlight the critical importance of thermoregulatory behavior to buffer temperatures and its dependence on vegetation heterogeneity. Whereas studies often neglect ecological processes when anticipating species’ responses to future climate change the strongest impact of a changing climate on terrestrial ectotherms in hot deserts is likely to be the loss of shaded microhabitats rather than the rise in temperature itself. We argue that conservation strategies aiming at addressing future climate changes should focus more on the cascading effects of vegetation rather than on shifts of species distributions predicted solely by climatic envelopes.     

Evidence of a Cooler Continental Climate in East China during the Warm Early Cenozoic

The early Cenozoic was characterized by a very warm climate especially during the Early Eocene. To understand climatic changes in eastern Asia, we reconstructed the Early Eocene vegetation and climate based on palynological data of a borehole from Wutu coal mine, East China and evaluated the climatic differences between eastern Asia and Central Europe. The Wutu palynological assemblages indicated a warm temperate vegetation succession comprising mixed needle- and broad-leaved forests. Three periods of vegetation succession over time were recognized. The changes of palynomorph relative abundance indicated that period 1 was warm and humid, period 2 was relatively warmer and wetter, and period 3 was cooler and drier again. The climatic parameters estimated by the coexistence approach (CA) suggested that the Early Eocene climate in Wutu was warmer and wetter. Mean annual temperature (MAT) was approximately 16°C and mean annual precipitation (MAP) was 800–1400 mm. Comparison of the Early Eocene climatic parameters of Wutu with those of 39 other fossil floras of different age in East China, reveals that 1) the climate became gradually cooler during the last 65 million years, with MAT dropping by 9.3°C. This cooling trend coincided with the ocean temperature changes but with weaker amplitude; 2) the Early Eocene climate was cooler in East China than in Central Europe; 3) the cooling trend in East China (MAT dropped by 6.9°C) was gentler than in Central Europe (MAT dropped by 13°C) during the last 45 million years.     

Time lag and negative responses of forest greenness and tree growth to warming over circumboreal forests

The terrestrial forest ecosystems in the northern high latitude region have been experiencing significant warming rates over several decades. These forests are considered crucial to the climate system and global carbon cycle and are particularly vulnerable to climate change. To obtain an improved estimate of the response of vegetation activity, e.g., forest greenness and tree growth, to climate change, we investigated spatiotemporal variations in two independent data sets containing the dendroecological information for this region over the past 30 years. These indices are the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI3g) and the tree‐ring width index (RWI), both of which showed significant spatial variability in past trends and responses to climate changes. These trends and responses to climate change differed significantly in the ecosystems of the circumarctic (latitude higher than 67°N) and the circumboreal forests (latitude higher and lower than 50°N and 67°N, respectively), but the way in which they differed was relatively similar in the NDVI3g and the RWI. In the circumarctic ecosystem, the climate variables of the current summer were the main climatic drivers for the positive response to the increase in temperatures showed by both the NDVI3g and the RWI indices. On the other hand, in the circumboreal forest ecosystem, the climate variables of the previous year (from summer to winter) were also important climatic drivers for both the NDVI3g and the RWI. Importantly, both indices showed that the temperatures in the previous year negatively affected the ecosystem. Although such negative responses to warming did not necessarily lead to a past negative linear trend in the NDVI3g and the RWI over the past 30 years, future climate warming could potentially cause severe reduction in forest greenness and tree growth in the circumboreal forest ecosystem.     

Modern vegetation–pollen–climate relationships for the Pampa grasslands of Argentina

Aim To analyse the relationships between potential natural vegetation, pollen and climate in order to improve the interpretation of fossil pollen records and provide the background for future quantitative palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Location Pampa grasslands of Argentina, between 33–41° S and 56–67° W. Methods Modern pollen data were obtained from a pollen data base developed by the Grupo de Investigación de Paleoecología y Palinología, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Argentina (143 surface samples and 17 pollen types). Analysis of pollen and climate data involved multivariate statistics (cluster analysis and principal components analysis), scatter diagrams, Pearson’s correlation and isopoll mapping. Results Vegetation patterns at regional scales (grasslands and xerophytic woodlands) and local scales (edaphic communities) were identified by cluster analysis of pollen surface samples. The main climatic variables that appear to constrain the vegetation distribution and abundance of taxa are mean annual precipitation, annual effective precipitation and summer temperature. Individual pollen types such as Chenopodiaceae, Apiaceae, Cyperaceae, Prosopis, Schinus, Condalia microphylla and other xerophytic taxa are good indicators of moisture regime. Many pollen types are significantly correlated with summer temperature. The modern vegetation–pollen–climate relationships vary in a broadly predictable manner, supporting the contention that fossil pollen assemblages can be related to particular climatic characteristics. Main conclusions An expanded suite of modern analogues facilitated new insights into vegetation–pollen–climate relationships at the regional scale in Pampa grasslands. Relationships between individual pollen types and climate are appraised at a regional scale and new modern analogues are presented. The results provide the basis for improved vegetation and climate reconstruction from fossil records of the study area.     

Climate-induced changes in the vegetation pattern of China in the 21st century

Quantifying climate-induced changes in vegetation patterns is essential to understanding land–climate interactions and ecosystem changes. In the present study, we estimated various distributional changes of vegetation under different climate-change scenarios in the 21st century. Both hypothetical scenarios and Hedley RCM scenarios show that the transitional vegetation types, such as shrubland and grassland, have higher sensitivity to climatic change compared to vegetation under extreme climatic conditions, such as the evergreen broadleaf forest or desert, barren lands. Mainly, the sensitive areas in China lie in the Tibetan Plateau, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, northeastern plain of China and eco-zones between different vegetations. As the temperature increases, mixed forests and deciduous broadleaf forests will shift towards northern China. Grassland, shrubland and wooded grassland will extend to southeastern China. The RCM-project climate changes generally have caused positive vegetation changes; vegetation cover will probably improve 19% relative to baseline, and the forest will expand to 8% relative to baseline, while the desert and bare ground will reduce by about 13%.     

Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects decouples the long‐term dynamics of wild reindeer populations in the high Arctic

The ‘Moran effect’ predicts that dynamics of populations of a species are synchronized over similar distances as their environmental drivers. Strong population synchrony reduces species viability, but spatial heterogeneity in density dependence, the environment, or its ecological responses may decouple dynamics in space, preventing extinctions. How such heterogeneity buffers impacts of global change on large‐scale population dynamics is not well studied. Here, we show that spatially autocorrelated fluctuations in annual winter weather synchronize wild reindeer dynamics across high‐Arctic Svalbard, while, paradoxically, spatial variation in winter climate trends contribute to diverging local population trajectories. Warmer summers have improved the carrying capacity and apparently led to increased total reindeer abundance. However, fluctuations in population size seem mainly driven by negative effects of stochastic winter rain‐on‐snow (ROS) events causing icing, with strongest effects at high densities. Count data for 10 reindeer populations 8–324 km apart suggested that density‐dependent ROS effects contributed to synchrony in population dynamics, mainly through spatially autocorrelated mortality. By comparing one coastal and one ‘continental’ reindeer population over four decades, we show that locally contrasting abundance trends can arise from spatial differences in climate change and responses to weather. The coastal population experienced a larger increase in ROS, and a stronger density‐dependent ROS effect on population growth rates, than the continental population. In contrast, the latter experienced stronger summer warming and showed the strongest positive response to summer temperatures. Accordingly, contrasting net effects of a recent climate regime shift—with increased ROS and harsher winters, yet higher summer temperatures and improved carrying capacity—led to negative and positive abundance trends in the coastal and continental population respectively. Thus, synchronized population fluctuations by climatic drivers can be buffered by spatial heterogeneity in the same drivers, as well as in the ecological responses, averaging out climate change effects at larger spatial scales.