Upper temperature limits for trout in New Zealand and climate change

The significance of temperature in determining the northernmost limit of trout in New Zealand is discussed, and the river temperature records available suggest that high winter temperatures, rather than high summer temperatures are involved. The predicted climate changes consequent on increased concentrations of atmospheric gases, are used to predict changes in trout distribution. A 1.5 °C increase is likely to result in a contraction of the distribution of brown trout in northern areas, but the effects elsewhere on brown trout would be limited. A 3 °C increase is likely to eliminate both species from borthern latitudes, while heat stress could alter distributions of both species throughout the country. The possibilities of genetic responses to the changes are discussed.     

Impact of winter climate change on nitrogen biogeochemistry in forest ecosystems: A synthesis from Japanese case studies

Nitrogen (N) is a critical ecological and environmental indicator under changing environments. The impact of winter climate change on N biogeochemical processes in forest ecosystems has gained increasing recognition. Decreasing snowfall has caused a decrease in the heat insulation properties of the snowpack, resulting in an increase in the frequency and magnitude of freezing and thawing cycles in surface soil, where biological processes are most active. Here I synthesize recent research findings from integrated field observations and experiments conducted in northern Japan and compare these results with previous research outcomes from other regions to identify current research gaps and develop the next research agenda to further advance our understanding of this complex problem. Japanese case studies indicated that net ammonium production (ammonification) was mostly dominant in terms of available soil N fertility in cold environments and was sensitive to the increase in soil freezing and thawing cycles because of the decreased snowpack. On the other hands, nitrate dynamics were more stable or conservative than those of ammonium. The soil characteristics (i.e., N pool and microbial activities) were significant explanatory factors of the responses of soil N dynamics and N leakage among different soils to increased freezing–thawing cycles at watershed and national scale. This synthesis indicates that winter climate change had significant impacts on soil N biogeochemistry (such as soil N pool size and microbial N transformation) during the winter and snowmelt season and also during the following growing season. Several research gaps and possible research topics (path dependency and soil microbial community composition) are also presented by synthesizing the current research findings. Further field experiments and observations quantifying the pools and fluxes of inorganic N with modeling analysis under freeze–thaw environments would contribute to increase the understandings of N transformation processes under winter climate change.     

Making weed biological control predictable,safer and more effective: perspectives from New Zealand

A persistent problem in weed biocontrol is how to reliably predict whether a plant that supports development in laboratory host-specificity testing will be utilized in field conditions, and this is undoubtedly preventing releases of safe and effective agents. Moreover, the potential for unanticipated undesirable indirect effects of weed biocontrol on ecological networks has raised concerns by policy-makers and the general public. The key to minimizing risks of non-target impacts is prioritizing candidate agents that are both host-specific and effective, such that the number of agents required to bring the weed under control is minimized. As a consequence both the weed and its biocontrol agents become minor components of the local biota. Here we review recent attempts in New Zealand to improve the predictive ability of host-range testing, to avoid potentially safe and effective agents being rejected. Research in New Zealand aimed at predicting whether an agent is likely to experience enemy-release (i.e. reduced parasitism and predation) could assist agent prioritization, potentially making biocontrol both environmentally safer and more effective.     

Environmental safety of biological control: Policy and practice in New Zealand

Introduction of biological control agents into New Zealand is regulated under the Hazardous Substances and New Organisms Act 1996 (HSNO). The legislation is strongly focused on the health and safety of people and the environment. HSNO is implemented by the Environmental Risk Management Authority, a quasi-judicial body of 6–8 people appointed by the Minister for the Environment. The process by which biological control applications are received and processed is described. Two case studies of weed biological control agents which have been through the HSNO process, and the scientific issues that arose in considering the environmental safety of these agents are discussed. The case studies presented are the applications to release the gall fly Procecidochares alani (Diptera: Tephritidae) to control mist flower Ageratina riparia, and three biological control agents, Macrolabis pilosellae (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae), Cheilosia urbana, and Cheilosia psilophthalma (Diptera: Syrphidae) for biological control of hawkweeds (Hieracium spp.). Both applications were approved for agent release into the environment.     

Potential soil carbon sequestration in a semiarid Mediterranean agroecosystem under climate change: Quantifying management and climate effects

Repeated defoliation and flooding trigger opposite plant morphologies, prostrated and erect ones, respectively; while both induce the consumption of carbohydrate reserves to sustain plant recovery. This study is aimed at evaluating the effects of the combination of defoliation frequency and flooding on plant regrowth and levels of crown reserves of Lotus tenuis Waldst. & Kit., a forage legume of increasing importance in grazing areas prone to soil flooding. Adult plants of L. tenuis were subjected to 40 days of flooding at a water depth of 4 cm in combination with increasing defoliation frequencies by clipping shoot mass above water level. The following plant responses were assessed: tissue porosity, plant height, biomass of the different organs, and utilization of water-soluble carbohydrates (WSCs) and starch in the crown. Flooding consistently increased plant height independently of the defoliation frequency. This response was associated with a preferential location of shoot biomass above water level and a reduction in root biomass accumulation. As a result, a second defoliation in the middle of the flooding period was more intense among plants that are taller due to flooding. These plants lost ca. 90% of their leaf biomass vs. ca. 50% among non-flooded plants. The continuous de-submergence shoot response of frequently defoliated plants was attained in accordance to a decrease of their crown reserves. Consequently, these plants registered only 27.8% of WSCs and 9.1% of starch concentrations with respect to controls. Under such stressful conditions, plants showed a marked reduction in their regrowth as evidenced by the lowest biomass in all plant compartments: shoot, crowns and roots. Increasing defoliation frequency negatively affects the tolerance of the forage legume L. tenuis to flooding stress. Our results reveal a trade-off between the common increase in plant height to emerge from water and the amount of shoot removed to tolerate defoliation. When both factors are combined and defoliation persists, plant regrowth would be constrained by the reduction of crown reserves.     

Integrated models of livestock systems for climate change studies. 1. Grazing systems

The potential impact of climate change by the year 2050 on British grazing livestock systems is assessed through the use of simulation models of farming systems. The submodels, consisting of grass production, livestock feeding, livestock thermal balance, the thermal balance of naturally ventilated buildings and a stochastic weather generator, are described. These are integrated to form system models for sheep, beef calves and dairy cows. They are applied to scenarios representing eastern (dry) lowlands, western (wet) lowlands and uplands. The results show that such systems should be able to adapt to the expected climatic changes. There is likely to be a small increase in grass production, possibly allowing an increase in total productivity in some cases.     

Water temperature and upstream migration of glass eels in New Zealand: implications of climate change

Glass eels migrating upstream in a New Zealand river showed a clear preference for water temperatures between 12 and 20°C, with an optimum of 16.5°C. Water temperatures <12°C and >22°C almost completely inhibited migration, which implies that warmer temperatures associated with global climate change might have a detrimental impact on glass eel recruitment in their current ranges. We established this by trapping glass eels of shortfin, Anguilla australis, and longfin, A. dieffenbachii, eels nightly from September to November. Eels caught in 2001 (50,287) outnumbered those caught in 2002 (19,954); shortfin glass eels dominated catches in both years, comprising 91–93% of the catch. Longfins were larger than shortfins, and size and pigmentation in both species increased as the seasons progressed. Temperatures within the migratory season in 2001 showed ∼14-day intervals between maxima that appeared to be associated with the new and full moons.     

Integrated models of livestock systems for climate change studies. 2. Intensive systems

The potential impact of climate change by the year 2050 on intensive livestock systems in Britain is assessed through the use of simulation models of farming systems. The submodels comprise livestock feeding, livestock thermal balance and the thermal balance of controlled environment buildings and a stochastic weather generator. These are integrated to form system models for growing pigs and broiler chickens. They are applied to scenarios typical of SE England, which is the warmest region of the country and represents the worst case. For both species the frequency of severe heat stress is substantially increased, with a consequent risk of mortality. To offset this, it would be necessary to reduce stocking densities considerably, or to invest in improved ventilation or cooling equipment. Other effects on production are likely to be small.     

Review article: Race/ethnic studies: The New Zealand case

Terrence Loomis, PACIFIC MIGRANT LABOUR, CLASS AND RACISM IN NEW ZEALAND, Aldershot: Avebury, 1990, xx + 235 pp., £29.50

Richard Mulgan, MAORI, PAKEHA AND DEMOCRACY, Auckland: Oxford University Press, 1989, viii + 159 pp., £12.95

David Pearson, A DREAM DEFERRED: THE ORIGINS OF ETHNIC CONFLICT IN NEW ZEALAND, Wellington: Allen & Unwin, 1990, ix + 301 pp., NZ $29.95

Paul Spoonley, RACISM AND ETHNICITY, Auckland: Oxford University Press, 1988, xiv + 138 pp., NZ $16.95.     

Potential impacts of global climate change on freshwater fisheries

Despite uncertainty in all levels of analysis, recent and long-term changes in our climate point to the distinct possibility that greenhouse gas emissions have altered mean annual temperatures, precipitation and weather patterns. Modeling efforts that use doubled atmospheric CO₂ scenarios predict a 1–7°C mean global temperature increase, regional changes in precipitation patterns and storm tracks, and the possibility of “surprises” or sudden irreversible regime shifts. The general effects of climate change on freshwater systems will likely be increased water temperatures, decreased dissolved oxygen levels, and the increased toxicity of pollutants. In lotic systems, altered hydrologic regimes and increased groundwater temperatures could affect the quality of fish habitat. In lentic systems, eutrophication may be exacerbated or offset, and stratification will likely become more pronounced and stronger. This could alter food webs and change habitat availability and quality. Fish physiology is inextricably linked to temperature, and fish have evolved to cope with specific hydrologic regimes and habitat niches. Therefore, their physiology and life histories will be affected by alterations induced by climate change. Fish communities may change as range shifts will likely occur on a species level, not a community level; this will add novel biotic pressures to aquatic communities. Genetic change is also possible and is the only biological option for fish that are unable to migrate or acclimate. Endemic species, species in fragmented habitats, or those in east–west oriented systems will be less able to follow changing thermal isolines over time. Artisanal, commercial, and recreational fisheries worldwide depend upon freshwater fishes. Impacted fisheries may make it difficult for developing countries to meet their food demand, and developed countries may experience economic losses. As it strengthens over time, global climate change will become a more powerful stressor for fish living in natural or artificial systems. Furthermore, human response to climate change (e.g., increased water diversion) will exacerbate its already-detrimental effects. Model predictions indicate that global climate change will continue even if greenhouse gas emissions decrease or cease. Therefore, proactive management strategies such as removing other stressors from natural systems will be necessary to sustain our freshwater fisheries.     

Potential effects of climate change on the distribution of Scarabaeidae dung beetles in Western Europe

Dung beetles are indispensable in pasturelands, especially when poor efficiency of earthworms and irregular rainfall (e.g. under a Mediterranean climate) limit pad decomposition. Although observed and projected species range shifts and extinctions due to climate change have been documented for plants and animals, little effort has focused on the response of keystone species such as the scarab beetles of dung beetle decomposers. Our study aims to forecast the distribution of 37 common Scarabaeidae dung beetle species in France, Portugal and Spain (i.e. more than half of the western European Scarabaeidae fauna) in relation to two climate change scenarios (A2 and B1) for the period leading to 2080. On average, 21 % of the species should change in each 50-km UTM grid cell. The highest faunistic turnover rate and a significant increase in species richness are expected in the north of the study area while a marked impoverishment is expected in the south, with little difference between scenarios. The potential enrichment of northern regions depends on the achievement of the northward shift of thermophilous species, and climate change is generally likely to reduce the current distribution of the majority of species. Under these conditions, the distribution of resource—i.e. the extent and distribution of pastures—will be a key factor limiting species’ responses to climate change. The dramatic abandonment of extensive grazing across many low mountains of southern Europe may thus represent a serious threat to dung beetle distribution changes.     

The effects of climate change on species composition,succession and phenology: a case study

Climate change and its role in altering biological interactions and the likelihood of invasion by introduced species in marine systems have received increased attention in recent years. It is difficult to forecast how climate change will influence community function or the probability of invasion as it alters multiple marine environmental parameters including rising water temperature, lower salinity and pH. In the present study, we correlate changes in environmental parameters to shifts in species composition in a subtidal community in Newcastle, NH through comparison of two, 3‐year periods separated by 23 years (1979–1981 and 2003–2005). We observed concurrent shifts in climate related factors and in groups of organisms that dominate the marine community when comparing 1979–1981 to 2003–2005. The 1979–1981 community was dominated by perennial species (mussels and barnacles). In contrast, the 2003–2005 community was dominated by annual native and invasive tunicates (sea‐squirts). We also observed a shift in the environmental factors that characterized both communities. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphate characterized the 1979–1981 community while sea surface temperature, pH, and chlorophyll a characterized the 2003–2005 community. Elongated warmer water temperatures, through the fall and early winter months of the 2000s, extended the growing season of native organisms and facilitated local dominance of invasive species. Additionally, beta‐diversity was greater between 2003–2005 than 1979–1981 and driven by larger numbers of annual species whose life‐history characteristics (e.g., timing and magnitude of recruitment, growth and mortality) are driven by environmental parameters, particularly temperature.     

Potential effects of climate change on DOC release from three different soil types on the Northern Pennines UK: examination using field manipulation experiments

Three field manipulation experiments were carried out during 1993–1995 on the Northern Pennines to investigate the influences of temperature, solar radiation and rainfall on the release of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from vegetated soil cores using zero‐tension lysimeters. The cores were manipulated by being translocated to four sites down a climatic gradient, by artificial soil heating or being exposed to double normal rainfall. In each experiment three soil types, a brown earth, a micropodzol and a peaty gley, with differing organic matter content and distribution within the profile, were studied. DOC data, expressed as mg C m^?2 day^?1, were analysed following log₁₀ transformation, by a repeated measures analysis of variance procedure, using climatic variables measured concurrently with sampling, and 1 and 2 months before sampling. DOC release was dominated by rainfall but was also associated with solar radiation and temperature. With each of the three climatic variables, rainfall, solar radiation and temperature, both positive and negative effects on DOC release have been found significant, indicating that the concurrent and delayed effects of the same variable may be different. DOC release was positively related with all three soils to concurrent rainfall, indicating rainfall's primary leaching action. DOC release was also negatively related to rainfall of the previous month indicating that its action depletes the leachable pool of DOC in the soil. DOC release was positively associated with solar radiation 2 months earlier, indicating that DOC's main source is that of primary production; DOC peaks closely followed peaks of annual primary production. DOC release was linked with temperature, the strongest association being with temperature 2 months earlier, indicating that temperature effects both primary production and DOC regeneration via organic matter decomposition. A conceptual model, relating our findings to those processes known to govern DOC release from soils, has been presented.     

Aerial dispersal of biological material from Australia to New Zealand

New Zealand lies 2000 km across the Tasman Sea, southeast of Australia, in the path of prevailing westerly winds and thus is well sited for studies of long distance dispersal. The aerial transfer of biological material across the Tasman Sea from Australia to New Zealand is not well documented and evidence for this is reviewed. Plant Pathogens: Regular surveys have identified the races of wheat stem rust present in both countries. In general the identification of a new race in Australia was quickly followed by its appearance in New Zealand. SimilarlyAntirrhinum rust and poplar leaf rusts were detected in New Zealand soon after their first appearance in Australia. Insects: Coccids, the grain aphid, and blue moon and other butterflies and moths appear to have been carried across the Tasman during appropriate meteorological conditions. Seeds and Pollen: There is evidence for a west to east movement of seeds, spores and pollen. The affinities of the orchid and fern floras between the two countries provides circumstantial evidence and it is generally accepted thatCasuarina pollen found in peat and surface samples from various parts of New Zealand has its source in eastern Australia.