On the use of three performance measures for fitting species response curves

Abstract. Quantitative response surfaces obtained from three performance measures, density, cover and volume, are compared, using as an example the spatial distribution of Periploca angustifolia (Asclepiadaceae) in SE Spain. Generalized linear models are used to examine relationships between these species performance measures and complex gradients of aspect, slope angle and altitude. All three performance measures showed a skewed response to the environmental gradients, unlike the Gaussian responses commonly assumed in vegetation theory; skewness increased as the number of dimensions of the performance measures increased. Certain asymmetries between the responses are discussed in terms of competition, and problems related to the use of complex gradients are considered.     

Evaluation of Habitat Suitability Models for Forest Passerines Using Demographic Data

ABSTRACT Habitat suitability is often used as a surrogate for demographic responses (i.e., abundance, survival, fecundity, or population viability) in the application of habitat suitability index (HSI) models. Whether habitat suitability actually relates to demographics, however, has rarely been evaluated. We validated HSI models of breeding habitat suitability for wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) and yellow-breasted chat (Icteria virens) in Missouri, USA. First, we evaluated HSI models as a predictor of 3 demographic responses: within-site territory density, site-level territory density, and nest success. We demonstrated a link between HSI values and all 3 types of demographic responses for the yellow-breasted chat and site-level territory density for the wood thrush. Second, we evaluated support for models containing HSI values, models containing measured habitat features (e.g., tree age, tree species, ecological land type), and models containing management treatments (e.g., even-aged and uneven-aged forest regeneration treatments) for each demographic response using model selection. Models containing HSI values received more support, in general, than models containing only habitat features or management treatments for all 3 types of wildlife response. The assumption that changes in habitat suitability represent wildlife demographic response to vegetation change is supported by our models. However, differences in species ecology may contribute to the degree to which HSI values are related to specific demographic responses. We recommend validation of HSI models with the particular demographic data of interest (i.e., density, productivity) to increase confidence in the model used for conservation planning.     

Predator dietary response to prey density variation and consequences for cestode transmission

The functional response of predators to prey density variations has previously been investigated in order to understand predation patterns. However, the consequences of functional response on parasite transmission remain largely unexplored. The rodents Microtus arvalis and Arvicola terrestris are the main prey of the red fox Vulpes vulpes in eastern France. These species are intermediate and definitive hosts of the cestode Echinococcus multilocularis. We explored the dietary and contamination responses of the red fox to variations in prey density. The dietary response differed between the two prey species: no response for M. arvalis and a type III-like (sigmoidal) response for A. terrestris that shows possible interference with M. arvalis. The fox contamination response followed a type II shape (asymptotic) for both species. We conclude that fox predation is species specific and E. multilocularis transmission is likely to be regulated by a complex combination of predation and immunologic factors. These results should provide a better understanding of the biological and ecological mechanisms involved in the transmission dynamics of trophically transmitted parasites when multiple hosts are involved. The relevance of the models of parasite transmission should be enhanced if non-linear patterns are taken into account.     

Resource partitioning and competition for shells between intertidal hermit crabs on the outer coast of Washington

Summary Resource partitioning was quantified for 6 species of intertidal hermit crabs in the genus Pagurus, that occur on the outer coast of Washington. This, together with field evidence of shell shortage and with laboratory experiments to quantify the mechanism of interactions for shells, allowed estimation of the relative intensities of inter-and intraspecific competition between these species. The findings were that: (1) the magnitude of intraspecific competition was greater than any single interspecific competitive effect for all of the species; and (2) the relative proportion of intraspecific competition was greater for the middle and upper intertidal species than for the lower intertidal species. Studies at several outer coast sites supported these generalizations. Both of these findings are consistent with the hypothesis that competitive divergence has occurred in the past. The structure of the outer coast hermit crab assemblage is compared with that of the San Juan Archipelago hermit crab assemblage. Differences between the two do not seem to be the result of adaptive responses to the presence of more competing species in the former group.     

Tradescantia‐based models: a powerful looking glass for investigation of photoacclimation and photoadaptation in plants

Here, we summarize diverse evidence from species that belong to the genus Tradescantia, which we propose as handy and versatile models for studies of the ecology of photosynthesis and the mechanisms of photoacclimation in higher plants. A valuable feature of this genus is the amazingly broad range of ecological niches occupied by its species: from shady understory of tropical rainforest to deserts and semideserts. The former habitats demand shade tolerance (e.g. that featured by Tradescantia fluminensis), whereas the latter requires succulence and/or high light stress tolerance (evident in e.g. Tradescantia navicularis). At the same time, the acclimative traits of Tradescantia species seem quite moderate at first glance. Certainly, their basic principles of acclimation seem to differ in some aspects from the ones typical for most of other higher plants. This review presents a systematic analysis of irradiance responses of Tradescantia species studied on different timescales. The specifics of Tradescantia responses to irradiance make the plants of this genus a ‘multitool’ for studies in this field. Similarity of irradiance acclimation patterns is a characteristic feature in the ecologically contrasting Tradescantia species, which may inspire further insights into physiology and evolution of plants.     

Methods for evaluating variability in human health dose–response characterization

Abstract

The Reference Dose (RfD) and Reference Concentration (RfC) are human health reference values (RfVs) representing exposure concentrations at or below which there is presumed to be little risk of adverse effects in the general human population. The 2009 National Research Council report Science and Decisions recommended redefining RfVs as “a risk-specific dose (for example, the dose associated with a 1 in 100,000 risk of a particular end point).” Distributions representing variability in human response to environmental contaminant exposures are critical for deriving risk-specific doses. Existing distributions estimating the extent of human toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic variability are based largely on controlled human exposure studies of pharmaceuticals. New data and methods have been developed that are designed to improve estimation of the quantitative variability in human response to environmental chemical exposures. Categories of research with potential to provide new data useful for developing updated human variability distributions include controlled human experiments, human epidemiology, animal models of genetic variability, in vitro estimates of toxicodynamic variability, and in vitro-based models of toxicokinetic variability. In vitro approaches, with further development including studies of different cell types and endpoints, and approaches to incorporate non-genetic sources of variability, appear to provide the greatest opportunity for substantial near-term advances.     

Two-component signal transduction systems in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Streptomyces</Emphasis> and related organisms studied using DNA comparative microarray analysis

Two component sensor-response regulator systems (TCSs) are very common in the genomes of the Streptomyces species that have been fully sequenced to date. It has been suggested that this large number is an evolutionary response to the variable environment that Streptomyces encounter in soil. Notwithstanding this, TCSs are also more common in the sequenced genomes of other Actinomycetales when these are compared to the genomes of most other eubacteria. In this study, we have used DNA/DNA genome microarray analysis to compare 14 Streptomyces species and one closely related genus to Streptomyces coelicolor in order to identify a core group of such systems. This core group is compared to the syntenous and non-syntenous TCSs present in the genome sequences of other Actinomycetales in order to separate the systems into those present in Actinomycetales in general, the Streptomyces specific systems and the species specific systems. Horizontal transfer does not seem to play a very important role in the evolution of the TCS complement analyzed in this study. However, cognate pairs do not necessarily seem to evolve at the same pace, which may indicate the evolutionary responses to environmental variation may be reflected differently in sequence changes within the two components of the TCSs. The overall analysis allowed subclassification of the orphan TCSs and the TCS cognate pairs and identification of possible targets for further study using gene knockouts, gene overexpression, reporter genes and yeast two hybrid analysis. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Species response curves of oak species along climatic gradients in Turkey

The genus Quercus is one of the most important tree species in Turkey. However, little is known on the ecological preferences of Turkish oak species regarding climate. We analyzed species response curves using a HOF-model approach to describe the general pattern of oak distributions along climatic gradients and to identify the driving climatic factors for eight oak species in Turkey. While climate data were extracted from the free available worldclim dataset, occurrence data on oak species were assembled from the literature into a vegetation database (n = 1,104). From the analyzed species response curves, only fa ew (16%) showed unimodal responses, while most were linear (31%) or exhibited a threshold response (31%). The driving factors were seasonality of temperature and seasonality of precipitation, indicating that Turkish oak species can be characterized best by the preference of climatic stability. These findings have important implications for conservation and climate change research, which usually focuses on trends of the mean values of temperature or precipitation but less often on the seasonality. In this study, we further tested whether niche optima derived from raw mean values of occurrences could replace missing model optima due to non-responsiveness of HOF models of type I. However, we did not find this to be a satisfactory solution. Finally, we discuss the need for the construction of a national database based on phytosociological relevés for Turkey.     

Parameter estimation techniques for interaction and redistribution models: a predator-prey example

Summary The use of parameter estimation techniques for partial differential equations is illustrated using a predatorprey model. Whereas ecologists have often estimated parameters in models, they have not previously been able to do so for models that describe interactions in heterogeneous environments. The techniques we describe for partial differential equations will be generally useful for models of interacting species in spatially complex environments and for models that include the movement of organisms. We demonstrate our methods using field data from a ladybird beetle (Coccinella septempunctata) and aphid (Uroleucon nigrotuberculatum) interaction. Our parameter estimation algorithms can be employed to identify models that explain better than 80% of the observed variance in aphid and ladybird densities. Such parameter estimation techniques can bridge the gap between detail-rich experimental studies and abstract mathematical models. By relating the particular bestfit models identified from our experimental data to other information on Coccinella behavior, we conclude that a term describing local taxis of ladybirds towards prey (aphids in this case) is needed in the model.     

A Bayesian Approach to Joint Mixed‐Effects Models with a Skew‐Normal Distribution and Measurement Errors in Covariates

Summary In recent years, nonlinear mixed‐effects (NLME) models have been proposed for modeling complex longitudinal data. Covariates are usually introduced in the models to partially explain intersubject variations. However, one often assumes that both model random error and random effects are normally distributed, which may not always give reliable results if the data exhibit skewness. Moreover, some covariates such as CD4 cell count may be often measured with substantial errors. In this article, we address these issues simultaneously by jointly modeling the response and covariate processes using a Bayesian approach to NLME models with covariate measurement errors and a skew‐normal distribution. A real data example is offered to illustrate the methodologies by comparing various potential models with different distribution specifications. It is showed that the models with skew‐normality assumption may provide more reasonable results if the data exhibit skewness and the results may be important for HIV/AIDS studies in providing quantitative guidance to better understand the virologic responses to antiretroviral treatment.     

Ecological and methodological drivers of non-stationarity in tree growth response to climate

Radial tree growth is sensitive to environmental conditions, making observed growth increments an important indicator of climate change effects on forest growth. However, unprecedented climate variability could lead to non-stationarity, that is, a decoupling of tree growth responses from climate over time, potentially inducing biases in climate reconstructions and forest growth projections. Little is known about whether and to what extent environmental conditions, species, and model type and resolution affect the occurrence and magnitude of non-stationarity. To systematically assess potential drivers of non-stationarity, we compiled tree-ring width chronologies of two conifer species, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, distributed across cold, dry, and mixed climates. We analyzed 147 sites across the Europe including the distribution margins of these species as well as moderate sites. We calibrated four numerical models (linear vs. non-linear, daily vs. monthly resolution) to simulate growth chronologies based on temperature and soil moisture data. Climate–growth models were tested in independent verification periods to quantify their non-stationarity, which was assessed based on bootstrapped transfer function stability tests. The degree of non-stationarity varied between species, site climatic conditions, and models. Chronologies of P. sylvestris showed stronger non-stationarity compared with Picea abies stands with a high degree of stationarity. Sites with mixed climatic signals were most affected by non-stationarity compared with sites sampled at cold and dry species distribution margins. Moreover, linear models with daily resolution exhibited greater non-stationarity compared with monthly-resolved non-linear models. We conclude that non-stationarity in climate–growth responses is a multifactorial phenomenon driven by the interaction of site climatic conditions, tree species, and methodological features of the modeling approach. Given the existence of multiple drivers and the frequent occurrence of non-stationarity, we recommend that temporal non-stationarity rather than stationarity should be considered as the baseline model of climate–growth response for temperate forests.     

Harmonization: Developing Consistent Guidelines for Applying Mode of Action and Dosimetry Information to Cancer and Noncancer Risk Assessment

The 1983 book, Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process, recommended developing consistent inference guidelines for cancer risk assessment. Over the last 15 years, extensive guidance have been provided for hazard assessment for cancer and other endpoints. However, as noted in several recent reports, much less progress has occurred in developing consistent guidelines for quantitative dose response assessment methodologies. This paper proposes an approach for dose response assessment guided by consideration of mode of action (pharmacodynamics) and tissue dosimetry (pharmacokinetics). As articulated here, this systematic process involves eight steps in which available information is integrated, leading first to quantitative analyses of dose response behaviors in the test species followed by quantitative analyses of relevant human exposures. The process should be equally appropriate for both cancer and noncancer endpoints. The eight steps describe the necessary procedures for incorporating mechanistic data and provide multiple options based upon the mode of action by which the chemical causes the toxicity. Given the range of issues involved in developing such a procedure, we have simply sketched the process, focusing on major approaches for using toxicological data and on major options; many details remain to be filled in. However, consistent with the revised carcinogen risk assessment guidance (USEPA, 1996c), we propose a process that would ultimately utilize biologically based or chemical specific pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models as the backbone of these analyses. In the nearer term, these approaches will be combined with analysis of data using more empirical models including options intended for use in the absence of detailed information. A major emphasis in developing any harmonized process is distinguishing policy decisions from those decisions that are affected by the quality and quantity of toxicological data. Identification of data limitations also identifies areas where further study should reduce uncertainty in the final risk evaluations. A flexible dose response assessment procedure is needed to insure that sound toxicological study results are appropriately used to influence risk management decision-making and to encourage the conduct of toxicological studies oriented toward application for dose response assessments.     

Global meta-analysis of tree decline impacts on fauna

Significant portions of the world's forests have been impacted by severe and large-scale tree declines characterised by gradual but widespread loss of vigour and subsequent death of either single or several tree species. Tree deaths represent a threat for fauna that are dependent on forest habitats for their survival. Although tree declines have received considerable scientific attention, surprisingly, little is known about their impacts on fauna. In total, we calculated 631 effect sizes across 59 studies that quantified the impact of tree declines on animal abundance. Data representing 186 bird species indicated an overall increase in bird abundance in response to tree declines (meta-analysis mean ± estimation g = 0.172 ± 0.053 [CI 0.069 to 0.275], P = 0.001); however, there was substantial variability in responses (significant heterogeneity P < 0.001) with a strong influence of diet as well as nesting guild on bird responses. Granivores (especially ground-foraging species, e.g. Passerellidae species), bark-foraging insectivores (e.g. woodpeckers), as well as ground- and cavity-nesting species apparently benefitted from tree declines, while nectarivorous birds [and, although not significant, aerially foraging insectivores (e.g. flycatchers) and leaf-gleaning insectivores (canopy-feeding)] were less common in the presence of tree declines. Data representing 33 mammal species indicate a tendency for detrimental effects of tree declines on mammals that use trees as refuges, while aerial foragers (i.e. bats) may benefit from opening up the canopy. Overall the average effect for mammals was neutral (meta-analysis mean estimation g = −0.150 ± 0.145 [−0.433 to 0.134], P = 0.302). Data representing 20 reptile species showed an insufficient range of responses to determine any diet or foraging effect on their responses. Data for 28 arthropod taxa should be considered with caution, as we could not adequately separate taxa according to their specialisations and reliance on key habitat. The data broadly suggest a detrimental effect of tree declines (meta-analysis mean estimation g = −0.171 ± 0.072 [−0.311 to −0.031], P = 0.017) with ground-foraging arthropods (e.g. detritivores and predators such as spiders and centipedes) more likely to be detrimentally impacted by tree declines. The range of responses to tree declines signifies substantially altered animal communities. In many instances, altered ecosystem function due to loss of key animal services will represent a significant threat to forest health.     

To compete or not to compete: an experimental study of interactions between plant species with contrasting root behaviour

Game-theoretic models predict that plants with root systems that avoid belowground competition will be displaced by plants that overproduce roots in substrate shared with competitors. Despite this, both types of root response to neighbours have been documented. We used two co-occurring clonal species (Glechoma hederacea and Fragaria vesca) with contrasting root responses to neighbours (avoidance of competition and contesting of resources, respectively) to examine whether functional variation in other traits affected the success of each rooting strategy, leading to a different outcome from that predicted on the basis of root behaviour alone. Vegetative propagation rates, morphology and biomass allocation patterns were examined when each species was challenged with competition from physically separate ramets with either the same rooting strategy (intraclonal competition) or the contrasting rooting strategy (interspecific competition). Contrary to the predictions of game-theoretic models, the species that exhibits avoidance of root competition (Glechoma) was not competitively inferior to the species that does not (Fragaria). Glechoma achieved greater total mass in the interspecific treatment than in the intraclonal treatment. However, Fragaria did not experience more intense competition from Glechoma than it did in the intraclonal treatment. Strong interference between the two species appeared to be avoided because Glechoma invested preferentially in rapid exploitation of unoccupied space, whereas Fragaria invested in increasing the competitive ability and local persistence of established ramets. Our results suggest that interspecific trade-offs between traits related to competitive ability and resource exploitation can allow coexistence of species with contrasting rooting behaviours. Full assessment of the adaptive value of different root responses to neighbours therefore requires concurrent consideration of the combined effects of a wide array of functional traits.     

Dose-response time modelling for highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus infection

Aims: To develop time‐dependent dose–response models for highly pathogenic avian influenza A (HPAI) of the H5N1 subtype virus. Methods and Results: A total of four candidate time‐dependent dose–response models were fitted to four survival data sets for animals (mice or ferrets) exposed to graded doses of HPAI H5N1 virus using the maximum‐likelihood estimation. A beta‐Poisson dose–response model with the N₅₀ parameter modified by an exponential‐inverse‐power time dependency or an exponential dose–response model with the k parameter modified by an exponential‐inverse time dependency provided a statistically adequate fit to the observed survival data. Conclusions: We have successfully developed the time‐dependent dose–response models to describe the mortality of animals exposed to an HPAI H5N1 virus. The developed model describes the mortality over time and represents observed experimental responses accurately. Significance and Impact of the Study: This is the first study describing time‐dependent dose–response models for HPAI H5N1 virus. The developed models will be a useful tool for estimating the mortality of HPAI H5N1 virus, which may depend on time postexposure, for the preparation of a future influenza pandemic caused by this lethal virus.     

Role of Ecological Modeling in Risk Assessment

Ecological models are useful tools for evaluating the ecological significance of observed or predicted effects of toxic chemicals on individual organisms. Current risk estimation approaches using hazard quotients for individual-level endpoints have limited utility for assessing risks at the population, ecosystem, and landscape levels, which are the most relevant indicators for environmental management. In this paper, we define different types of ecological models, summarize their input and output variables, and present examples of the role of some recommended models in chemical risk assessments. A variety of population and ecosystem models have been applied successfully to evaluate ecological risks, including population viability of endangered species, habitat fragmentation, and toxic chemical issues. In particular, population models are widely available, and their value in predicting dynamics of natural populations has been demonstrated. Although data are often limited on vital rates and doseresponse functions needed for ecological modeling, accurate prediction of ecological effects may not be needed for all assessments. Often, a comparative assessment of risk (e.g., relative to baseline or reference) is of primary interest. Ecological modeling is currently a valuable approach for addressing many chemical risk assessment issues, including screening-level evaluations.     

Response of Demographic Rates of Tropical Trees to Light Availability: Can Position-Based Competition Indices Replace Information from Canopy Census Data?

For trees in tropical forests, competition for light is thought to be a central process that offers opportunities for niche differentiation through light gradient partitioning. In previous studies, a canopy index based on three-dimensional canopy census data has been shown to be a good predictor of species-specific demographic rates across the entire tree community on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, and has allowed quantifying between-species variation in light response. However, almost all other forest census plots lack data on the canopy structure. Hence, this study aims at assessing whether position-based neighborhood competition indices can replace information from canopy census data and produce similar estimates of the interspecific variation of light responses. We used inventory data from the census plot at Barro Colorado Island and calculated neighborhood competition indices with varying relative effects of the size and distance of neighboring trees. Among these indices, we selected the one that was most strongly correlated with the canopy index. We then compared outcomes of hierarchical Bayesian models for species-specific recruitment and growth rates including either the canopy index or the selected neighborhood competition index as predictor. Mean posterior estimates of light response parameters were highly correlated between models (r>0.85) and indicated that most species regenerate and grow better in higher light. Both light estimation approaches consistently found that the interspecific variation of light response was larger for recruitment than for growth rates. However, the classification of species into different groups of light response, e.g. weaker than linear (decelerating) vs. stronger than linear (accelerating) differed between approaches. These results imply that while the classification into light response groups might be biased when using neighborhood competition indices, they may be useful for determining species rankings and between-species variation of light response and therefore enable large comparative studies between different forest census plots.     

Conceptualizing ecosystem tipping points within a physiological framework

Connecting the nonlinear and often counterintuitive physiological effects of multiple environmental drivers to the emergent impacts on ecosystems is a fundamental challenge. Unfortunately, the disconnect between the way “stressors” (e.g., warming) is considered in organismal (physiological) and ecological (community) contexts continues to hamper progress. Environmental drivers typically elicit biphasic physiological responses, where performance declines at levels above and below some optimum. It is also well understood that species exhibit highly variable response surfaces to these changes so that the optimum level of any environmental driver can vary among interacting species. Thus, species interactions are unlikely to go unaltered under environmental change. However, while these nonlinear, species‐specific physiological relationships between environment and performance appear to be general, rarely are they incorporated into predictions of ecological tipping points. Instead, most ecosystem‐level studies focus on varying levels of “stress” and frequently assume that any deviation from “normal” environmental conditions has similar effects, albeit with different magnitudes, on all of the species within a community. We consider a framework that realigns the positive and negative physiological effects of changes in climatic and nonclimatic drivers with indirect ecological responses. Using a series of simple models based on direct physiological responses to temperature and ocean pCO₂, we explore how variation in environment‐performance relationships among primary producers and consumers translates into community‐level effects via trophic interactions. These models show that even in the absence of direct mortality, mismatched responses resulting from often subtle changes in the physical environment can lead to substantial ecosystem‐level change.