Phylogenetic properties of Tertiary relict flora in the east Asian continental islands: imprint of climatic niche conservatism and in situ diversification

Understanding biodiversity patterns on islands has long been a central aim in ecology and conservation biology. Island‐specific biogeographical processes play substantial roles in the formation of endemic biota. Here, we examined how climate niche conservatism and geohistorical factors are interactively associated with in situ diversification of Tertiary relict flora in the east Asian continental islands. We generated two novel datasets for species distribution and phylogeny that included all of the known vascular plant species in Japan (5575). Then we tested phylogenetic signal of climatic tolerance, in terms of absolute minimum temperature and water balance, and explored environmental predictors of phylogenetic structure (evolutionary derivedness and clustering) of species assemblages. Although phylogenetic signal of climatic tolerance was significant across the phylogeny of most species, the strength of climatic niche conservatism differed among ferns, gymnosperms, angiosperm trees, and angiosperm herbs. For angiosperm trees, cold temperatures acted as environmental filters that generated phylogenetic derivedness/clustering of species assemblages. For fern and angiosperm herb species, however, phylogenetic properties were not associated with climatic harshness. These contrasting patterns among groups reflected climate niche evolution in vascular plants with different growth forms and traits; for example, diversification of angiosperm trees (but not fern and herb) occurred in response to historical climatic cooling. More importantly, geographical constraints contributed to evolutionary radiation that resulted from isolation by distance from the continent or by elevation. Quaternary climate change was also associated with clade‐specific radiation in refugial habitats. The degree to which geographical, geological, and palaeoclimatic variables explain the phylogenetic structure underscores the importance of isolation‐ and habitat‐stability‐related geohistorical processes in driving in situ diversification despite climatic niche conservatism. We propose that the highly endemic flora of the east Asian islands resulted from the interplay of idiosyncratic regional factors, and ecological and evolutionary processes, such as climate niche assembly and adaptive/nonadaptive radiation.     

Is adaptation to climate change really constrained in niche specialists?

Species with restricted distributions make up the vast majority of biodiversity. Recent evidence suggests that Drosophila species with restricted tropical distributions lack genetic variation in the key trait of desiccation resistance. It has therefore been predicted that tropically restricted species will be limited in their evolutionary response to future climatic changes and will face higher risks of extinction. However, these assessments have been made using extreme levels of desiccation stress (less than 10% relative humidity (RH)) that extend well beyond the changes projected for the wet tropics under climate change scenarios over the next 30 years. Here, we show that significant evolutionary responses to less extreme (35% RH) but more ecologically realistic levels of climatic change and desiccation stress are in fact possible in two species of rainforest restricted Drosophila. Evolution may indeed be an important means by which sensitive rainforest-restricted species are able to mitigate the effects of climate change.     

Trait Associations across Evolutionary Time within a Drosophila Phylogeny: Correlated Selection or Genetic Constraint?

Traits do not evolve independently. To understand how trait changes under selection might constrain adaptive changes, phenotypic and genetic correlations are typically considered within species, but these capture constraints across a few generations rather than evolutionary time. For longer-term constraints, comparisons are needed across species but associations may arise because of correlated selection pressures rather than genetic interactions. Implementing a unique approach, we use known patterns of selection to separate likely trait correlations arising due to correlated selection from those reflecting genetic constraints. We examined the evolution of stress resistance in >90 Drosophila species adapted to a range of environments, while controlling for phylogeny. Initially we examined the role of climate and phylogeny in shaping the evolution of starvation and body size, two traits previously not examined in this context. Following correction for phylogeny only a weak relationship between climate and starvation resistance was detected, while all of the variation in the relationship between body size and climate could be attributed to phylogeny. Species were divided into three environmental groups (hot and dry, hot and wet, cold) with the expectation that, if genetic correlations underpin trait correlations, these would persist irrespective of the environment, whereas selection-driven evolution should produce correlations dependent on the environment. We found positive associations between most traits in hot and dry environments coupled with high trait means. In contrast few trait correlations were observed in hot/wet and cold environments. These results suggest trait associations are primarily driven by correlated selection rather than genetic interactions, highlighting that such interactions are unlikely to limit evolution of stress resistance.     

Evolutionary potential of a widespread clonal grass under changing climate

Adaptive responses are probably the most effective long‐term responses of populations to climate change, but they require sufficient evolutionary potential upon which selection can act. This requires high genetic variance for the traits under selection and low antagonizing genetic covariances between the different traits. Evolutionary potential estimates are still scarce for long‐lived, clonal plants, although these species are predicted to dominate the landscape with climate change. We studied the evolutionary potential of a perennial grass, Festuca rubra, in western Norway, in two controlled environments corresponding to extreme environments in natural populations: cold–dry and warm–wet, the latter being consistent with the climatic predictions for the country. We estimated genetic variances, covariances, selection gradients and response to selection for a wide range of growth, resource acquisition and physiological traits, and compared their estimates between the environments. We showed that the evolutionary potential of F. rubra is high in both environments, and genetic covariances define one main direction along which selection can act with relatively few constraints to selection. The observed response to selection at present is not sufficient to produce genotypes adapted to the predicted climate change under a simple, space for time substitution model. However, the current populations contain genotypes which are pre‐adapted to the new climate, especially for growth and resource acquisition traits. Overall, these results suggest that the present populations of the long‐lived clonal plant may have sufficient evolutionary potential to withstand long‐term climate changes through adaptive responses.     

Ecological traits influence the phylogenetic structure of bird species co‐occurrences worldwide

The extent to which species’ ecological and phylogenetic relatedness shape their co‐occurrence patterns at large spatial scales remains poorly understood. By quantifying phylogenetic assemblage structure within geographic ranges of >8000 bird species, we show that global co‐occurrence patterns are linked – after accounting for regional effects – to key ecological traits reflecting diet, mobility, body size and climatic preference. We found that co‐occurrences of carnivorous, migratory and cold‐climate species are phylogenetically clustered, whereas nectarivores, herbivores, frugivores and invertebrate eaters tend to be more phylogenetically overdispersed. Preference for open or forested habitats appeared to be independent from the level of phylogenetic clustering. Our results advocate for an extension of the tropical niche conservatism hypothesis to incorporate ecological and life‐history traits beyond the climatic niche. They further offer a novel species‐oriented perspective on how biogeographic and evolutionary legacies interact with ecological traits to shape global patterns of species coexistence in birds.     

Correlated evolution between climate and suites of traits along a fast–slow continuum in the radiation of Protea

Evolutionary radiations are responsible for much of Earth's diversity, yet the causes of these radiations are often elusive. Determining the relative roles of adaptation and geographic isolation in diversification is vital to understanding the causes of any radiation, and whether a radiation may be labeled as “adaptive” or not. Across many groups of plants, trait–climate relationships suggest that traits are an important indicator of how plants adapt to different climates. In particular, analyses of plant functional traits in global databases suggest that there is an “economics spectrum” along which combinations of functional traits covary along a fast–slow continuum. We examine evolutionary associations among traits and between trait and climate variables on a strongly supported phylogeny in the iconic plant genus Protea to identify correlated evolution of functional traits and the climatic‐niches that species occupy. Results indicate that trait diversification in Protea has climate associations along two axes of variation: correlated evolution of plant size with temperature and leaf investment with rainfall. Evidence suggests that traits and climatic‐niches evolve in similar ways, although some of these associations are inconsistent with global patterns on a broader phylogenetic scale. When combined with previous experimental work suggesting that trait–climate associations are adaptive in Protea, the results presented here suggest that trait diversification in this radiation is adaptive.     

Testing the environmental warming responses of Brachyscome daisy species using a common garden approach

As temperatures increase in a warming world, there will be different responses among related plant species, with some species able to increase growth rate under warmer conditions and others less likely. Here, we identify survival and growth parameters in a group of 19 related Australian daisies from the genera Brachyscome and Pembertonia when exposed to higher soil temperature, focusing particularly on species from the alpine environment. We used a common garden approach to measure growth and survival under warming. We tested for the effects of evolutionary history by investigating phylogeny and testing for a phylogenetic signal, and for the effects of ecological history by considering climatic variables associated with species distributions in their native range. Evolutionary history did not have a detectable effect on warming responses. While there was a moderate signal for plant growth in the absence of warming, there was no signal for growth changes in response to warming, despite variability among species to warming that ranged from positive to negative growth responses. There was no strong effect of climate context, as species that showed a positive response to warming did not necessarily originate from hotter environments. In fact, several species from hot environments grew relatively poorly when exposed to higher soil temperature. However, species endemic to alpine areas were less likely to benefit from warming than widespread species. We found a strong phylogenetic signal for climate history, in that closely related species tend to occur in areas with similar annual variability in precipitation. Species differences in response to soil warming were variable and difficult to link to climate conditions except for the poor response of alpine endemics. There was no significant association between survival and warming responses of species. However, as some species showed weak growth responses, this may reduce their fitness into the future.     

Relating habitat and climatic niches in birds

Predicting species' responses to the combined effects of habitat and climate changes has become a major challenge in ecology and conservation biology. However, the effects of climatic and habitat gradients on species distributions have generally been considered separately. Here, we explore the relationships between the habitat and thermal dimensions of the ecological niche in European common birds. Using data from the French Breeding Bird Survey, a large-scale bird monitoring program, we correlated the habitat and thermal positions and breadths of 74 bird species, controlling for life history traits and phylogeny. We found that cold climate species tend to have niche positions in closed habitats, as expected by the conjunction of the biogeographic history of birds' habitats, and their current continent-scale gradients. We also report a positive correlation between thermal and habitat niche breadths, a pattern consistent with macroecological predictions concerning the processes shaping species' distributions. Our results suggest that the relationships between the climatic and habitat components of the niche have to be taken into account to understand and predict changes in species' distributions.     

Evolutionary and environmental determinants of freshwater fish thermal tolerance and plasticity

Understanding the extent to which phylogenetic constraints and adaptive evolutionary forces help define the physiological sensitivity of species is critical for anticipating climate‐related impacts in aquatic environments. Yet, whether upper thermal tolerance and plasticity are shaped by common evolutionary and environmental mechanisms remains to be tested. Based on a systematic literature review, we investigated this question in 82 freshwater fish species (27 families) representing 829 experiments for which data existed on upper thermal limits and it was possible to estimate plasticity using upper thermal tolerance reaction norms. Our findings indicated that there are strong phylogenetic signals in both thermal tolerances and acclimation capacity, although it is weaker in the latter. We found that upper thermal tolerances are correlated with the temperatures experienced by species across their range, likely because of spatially autocorrelated processes in which closely related species share similar selection pressures and limited dispersal from ancestral environments. No association with species thermal habitat was found for acclimation capacity. Instead, species with the lowest physiological plasticity also displayed the highest thermal tolerances, reflecting to some extent an evolutionary trade‐off between these two traits. Although our study demonstrates that macroecological climatic niche features measured from species distributions are likely to provide a good approximation of freshwater fish sensitivity to climate change, disentangling the mechanisms underlying both acute and chronic heat tolerances may help to refine predictions regarding climate change‐related range shifts and extinctions.     

Phylogenetic patterns of trait and trait plasticity evolution: Insights from amphibian embryos

Environmental variation favors the evolution of phenotypic plasticity. For many species, we understand the costs and benefits of different phenotypes, but we lack a broad understanding of how plastic traits evolve across large clades. Using identical experiments conducted across North America, we examined prey responses to predator cues. We quantified five life‐history traits and the magnitude of their plasticity for 23 amphibian species/populations (spanning three families and five genera) when exposed to no cues, crushed‐egg cues, and predatory crayfish cues. Embryonic responses varied considerably among species and phylogenetic signal was common among the traits, whereas phylogenetic signal was rare for trait plasticities. Among trait‐evolution models, the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) model provided the best fit or was essentially tied with Brownian motion. Using the best fitting model, evolutionary rates for plasticities were higher than traits for three life‐history traits and lower for two. These data suggest that the evolution of life‐history traits in amphibian embryos is more constrained by a species’ position in the phylogeny than is the evolution of life history plasticities. The fact that an OU model of trait evolution was often a good fit to patterns of trait variation may indicate adaptive optima for traits and their plasticities.     

Phenology responses of temperate butterflies to latitude depend on ecological traits

Global change influences species’ seasonal occurrence, or phenology. In cold‐adapted insects, the activity is expected to start earlier with a warming climate, but contradictory evidence exists, and the reactions may be linked to species‐specific traits. Using data from the GBIF database, we selected 105 single‐brooded Holarctic butterflies inhabiting broad latitudinal ranges. We regressed patterns of an adult flight against latitudes of the records, controlling for altitude and year effects. Species with delayed flight periods towards the high latitudes, or stable flight periods across latitudes, prevailed over those that advanced their flight towards the high latitudes. The responses corresponded with the species’ seasonality (flight of early season species was delayed and flight of summer species was advanced at high latitudes) and oceanic vs. continental climatic niches (delays in oceanic, stability in continental species). Future restructuring of butterfly seasonal patterns in high latitudes will reflect climatic niches, and hence the evolutionary history of participating species.     

Ecological,historical and evolutionary determinants of modularity in weighted seed‐dispersal networks

Modularity is a recurrent and important property of bipartite ecological networks. Although well‐resolved ecological networks describe interaction frequencies between species pairs, modularity of bipartite networks has been analysed only on the basis of binary presence–absence data. We employ a new algorithm to detect modularity in weighted bipartite networks in a global analysis of avian seed‐dispersal networks. We define roles of species, such as connector values, for weighted and binary networks and associate them with avian species traits and phylogeny. The weighted, but not binary, analysis identified a positive relationship between climatic seasonality and modularity, whereas past climate stability and phylogenetic signal were only weakly related to modularity. Connector values were associated with foraging behaviour and were phylogenetically conserved. The weighted modularity analysis demonstrates the dominating impact of ecological factors on the structure of seed‐dispersal networks, but also underscores the relevance of evolutionary history in shaping species roles in ecological communities.     

Evolutionary and ecological causes of species richness patterns in North American angiosperm trees

Climate and evolutionary factors (e.g. diversification, time‐for‐speciation, niche conservatism) are both thought to be major drivers of species richness in regional assemblages. However, few studies have simultaneously investigated the relative effects of climate and evolutionary factors on species richness across a broad geographical extent. Here, we assess their relative effects on species richness of angiosperm trees across North America. Species richness of angiosperm trees in 1175 regional assemblages were related to climate and phylogenetic structure using a structural equation modeling (SEM) approach. Climate was quantified based on the mean temperature of the coldest month and mean annual precipitation. Evolutionary factors (time‐for‐speciation vs diversification) were inferred from phylogeny‐based measures of mean root distance, phylogenetic species variability, and net relatedness index. We found that at the continental scale, species richness is correlated with temperature and precipitation with approximately similar strength. In the SEM with net relatedness index and phylogenetic species variability and with all the 1175 quadrats, the total direct effect size of phylogenetic structure on species richness is greater than the total direct effect size of climate on species richness by a factor of 3.7. The specific patterns of phylogenetic structure (i.e. greater phylogenetic distances in more species rich regions) are consistent with the idea that time and niche conservatism drive richness patterns in North American angiosperm trees. We conclude that angiosperm tree species richness in regional assemblages in North America is more strongly related to patterns of phylogenetic relatedness than to climatic variation. The results of the present study support the idea that climatic and evolutionary explanations for richness patterns are not in conflict, and that evolutionary processes explain both the relationship between climate and richness and substantial variation in richness that is independent of climate.     

Assessing concurrent patterns of environmental niche and morphological evolution among species of horned lizards (Phrynosoma)

The prediction that variation in species morphology is related to environmental features has long been of interest to ecologists and evolutionary biologists. Many studies have demonstrated strong associations between morphological traits and local habitat characteristics, but few have considered the extent to which morphological traits may be associated with environmental features across broad geographic areas. Here, we use morphological, environmental and phylogenetic data compiled from Phrynosoma species to examine morphological and climatic variation across the geographic ranges of these species in an evolutionary context. We find significant phylogenetic signal in species’ environmental niches, but not in morphological traits. Furthermore, we demonstrate a significant correlation between species’ environmental niches and morphological traits when phylogenetic history is accounted for in the analysis. Our results suggest the importance of climatic variables in influencing morphological variation among species, and have implications for understanding how species distributions are constrained by environmental variation.     

Traits underpinning desiccation resistance explain distribution patterns of terrestrial isopods

Predicted changes in soil water availability regimes with climate and land-use change will impact the community of functionally important soil organisms, such as macro-detritivores. Identifying and quantifying the functional traits that underlie interspecific differences in desiccation resistance will enhance our ability to predict both macro-detritivore community responses to changing water regimes and the consequences of the associated species shifts for organic matter turnover. Using path analysis, we tested (1) how interspecific differences in desiccation resistance among 22 northwestern European terrestrial isopod species could be explained by three underlying traits measured under standard laboratory conditions, namely, body ventral surface area, water loss rate and fatal water loss; (2) whether these relationships were robust to contrasting experimental conditions and to the phylogenetic relatedness effects being excluded; (3) whether desiccation resistance and hypothesized underlying traits could explain species distribution patterns in relation to site water availability. Water loss rate and (secondarily) fatal water loss together explained 90 % of the interspecific variation in desiccation resistance. Our path model indicated that body surface area affects desiccation resistance only indirectly via changes in water loss rate. Our results also show that soil moisture determines isopod species distributions by filtering them according to traits underpinning desiccation resistance. These findings reveal that it is possible to use functional traits measured under standard conditions to predict soil biota responses to water availability in the field over broad spatial scales. Taken together, our results demonstrate an increasing need to generate mechanistic models to predict the effect of global changes on functionally important organisms.     

Disentangling phylogenetic from non‐phylogenetic functional structure of bird assemblages in a tropical dry forest

Understanding the factors driving assembling structure of ecological communities remains a fundamental problem in ecology, especially when focusing on ecological and evolutionary relatedness among species rather than on their taxonomic identity. It remains critical though to separate the patterns and drivers of phylogenetic and functional structures, because traits are phylogenetically constrained, but phylogeny alone does not fully reflect trait variability among species. Using birds from the Brazilian dry forest as a study case, we employed two different approaches to decompose functional structure into its components that are shared and non‐shared with the phylogenetic structure. We investigated the spatial pattern and environmental hypotheses for these phylogenetically constrained and unconstrained aspects of functional structure, including climate‐induced physiological constraints, historical climatic stability, resource availability and habitat partitioning. We found only partial congruence between the two methods of structure decomposition. Still, we found a differential effect of factors on specific components of functional structure of bird assemblages. While climate affects phylogenetically constrained traits through endurance, habitat partitioning (especially forest cover) affects the functional structure that is independent of phylogeny. With this strategy, we were able to decompose the patterns and drivers of the functional structure of birds along a semiarid gradient and showed that the decomposition of the functional structure into its phylogenetic and non‐phylogenetic counterparts can offer a more complete portrait of the assembling rules in ecological communities. We claim for a further development and use of this sort of strategy to investigate assembling rules in ecological communities.     

High evolutionary constraints limited adaptive responses to past climate changes in toad skulls

Interactions among traits that build a complex structure may be represented as genetic covariation and correlation. Genetic correlations may act as constraints, deflecting the evolutionary response from the direction of natural selection. We investigated the relative importance of drift, selection, and constraints in driving skull divergence in a group of related toad species. The distributional range of these species encompasses very distinct habitats with important climatic differences and the species are primarily distinguished by differences in their skulls. Some parts of the toad skull, such as the snout, may have functional relevance in reproductive ecology, detecting water cues. Thus, we hypothesized that the species skull divergence was driven by natural selection associated with climatic variation. However, given that all species present high correlations among skull traits, our second prediction was of high constraints deflecting the response to selection. We first extracted the main morphological direction that is expected to be subjected to selection by using within- and between-species covariance matrices. We then used evolutionary regressions to investigate whether divergence along this direction is explained by climatic variation between species. We also used quantitative genetics models to test for a role of random drift versus natural selection in skull divergence and to reconstruct selection gradients along species phylogeny. Climatic variables explained high proportions of between-species variation in the most selected axis. However, most evolutionary responses were not in the direction of selection, but aligned with the direction of allometric size, the dimension of highest phenotypic variance in the ancestral population. We conclude that toad species have responded to selection related to climate in their skulls, yet high evolutionary constraints dominated species divergence and may limit species responses to future climate change.     

Morphological constraints on changing avian migration phenology

Many organisms at northern latitudes have responded to climate warming by advancing their spring phenology. Birds are known to show earlier timing of spring migration and reproduction in response to warmer springs. However, species show heterogeneous phenological responses to climate warming, with those that have not advanced or have delayed migration phenology experiencing population declines. Although some traits (such as migration distance) partly explain heterogeneity in phenological responses, the factors affecting interspecies differences in the responsiveness to climate warming have yet to be fully explored. In this comparative study, we investigate whether variation in wing aspect ratio (reflecting relative wing narrowness), an ecomorphological trait that is strongly associated with flight efficiency and migratory behaviour, affects the ability to advance timing of spring migration during 1960–2006 in a set of 80 European migratory bird species. Species with larger aspect ratio (longer and narrower wings) showed smaller advancement of timing of spring migration compared to species with smaller aspect ratio (shorter and wider wings) while controlling for phylogeny, migration distance and other life‐history traits. In turn, migration distance positively predicted aspect ratio across species. Hence, species that are better adapted to migration appear to be more constrained in responding phenologically to rapid climate warming by advancing timing of spring migration. Our findings corroborate the idea that aspect ratio is a major evolutionary correlate of migration, and suggest that selection for energetically efficient flights, as reflected by high aspect ratio, may hinder phenotypically plastic/microevolutionary adjustments of migration phenology to ongoing climatic changes.     

Current and future habitat availability for Thick‐billed and Maroon‐fronted parrots in northern Mexican forests

Thick‐billed Parrots (Rhynchopsitta pachyrhyncha) and Maroon‐fronted Parrots (Rhynchopsitta terrisi) are the only parrots in Mexico found in high‐elevation coniferous forests. Both species are critically endangered due to logging, and climate change is expected to further reduce their available habitat. Our objectives were to assess the present and future availability of a suitable habitat for these parrots using ecological niche models. Future climatic scenarios were estimated by overlaying the present distributions of these parrots on maps of projected biome distributions generated using a North American vegetation model. Our climatic scenarios revealed that the distribution of key habitats for both parrots will likely be affected as the climate becomes more suitable for xeric biomes. The climate associated with coniferous forests in the current range of Maroon‐fronted Parrots is predicted to disappear by 2090, and the climate associated with the key coniferous habitats of Thick‐billed Parrots may contract. However, our results also indicate that suitable climatic conditions will prevail for the high‐elevation coniferous biomes where Thick‐billed Parrots nest. The degree to which both species of parrots will be able to adapt to the new scenarios is uncertain. Some of their life history traits may allow them to respond with a combination of adaptive and spatial responses to climatic change and, in addition, suitable climatic conditions will prevail in some portions of their ranges. Actions needed to ensure the conservation of these parrots include strict control of logging and integration of rapid response teams for fire management within the potential foraging ranges of nesting pairs. A landscape with a greater proportion of restored forests would also aid in the recovery of current populations of Thick‐billed and Maroon‐fronted parrots and facilitate their responses to climate change.     

Pollinator type and secondarily climate are related to nectar sugar composition across the angiosperms

Pollinators are important agents of selection on floral traits, including nectar sugar composition. Although it is widely assumed that the proportion of sugars (mainly sucrose, glucose and fructose) in nectar reflects pollinators’ physiological limitations and digestive efficiency, the relative impact of pollinators and abiotic factors on nectar sugar composition, as well as the generality of these associations across the angiosperms, remain unknown. We compiled data on nectar sugar composition for >1000 plant species, along with information on flower visitors, plant growth form and latitudinal climatic zone, to provide the first comprehensive assessment of correlates of variation in sugar nectar composition in the angiosperms. After assembling a phylogeny linking all species in the dataset, we estimated the amount of phylogenetic signal in the percentage of sucrose and, by applying phylogenetically-informed multiple regressions, we evaluated whether nectar composition was influenced either by the main pollinator group, plant growth form, or latitudinal climatic zone. The relative importance of each of these factors was then assessed through model selection based on Akaike information criteria and deviance partitioning analysis. Nectar was dominated by sucrose in 56.8% of all the species, glucose in 16.7%, and fructose in 5.5%. Nectar in the remaining species was characterized by similar proportions of the three sugars. Variation in the proportion of sucrose was highest (~70%) at the intrafamily level, and had a significant but low phylogenetic signal, which partially reflects phylogenetic conservatism of the pollinator niche. After controlling for phylogenetic effects, the proportion of sucrose was mainly related to pollinator type and secondarily to climate. Accordingly, this study indicates that nectar sugar composition shows high evolutionary lability and its variation reflects plant-pollinator associations.