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1.
    
The ongoing debate about costs and benefits of wood‐pellet based bioenergy production in the southeastern United States (SE USA) requires an understanding of the science and context influencing market decisions associated with its sustainability. Production of pellets has garnered much attention as US exports have grown from negligible amounts in the early 2000s to 4.6 million metric tonnes in 2015. Currently, 98% of these pellet exports are shipped to Europe to displace coal in power plants. We ask, ‘How is the production of wood pellets in the SE USA affecting forest systems and the ecosystem services they provide?’ To address this question, we review current forest conditions and the status of the wood products industry, how pellet production affects ecosystem services and biodiversity, and what methods are in place to monitor changes and protect vulnerable systems. Scientific studies provide evidence that wood pellets in the SE USA are a fraction of total forestry operations and can be produced while maintaining or improving forest ecosystem services. Ecosystem services are protected by the requirement to utilize loggers trained to apply scientifically based best management practices in planning and implementing harvest for the export market. Bioenergy markets supplement incomes to private rural landholders and provide an incentive for forest management practices that simultaneously benefit water quality and wildlife and reduce risk of fire and insect outbreaks. Bioenergy also increases the value of forest land to landowners, thereby decreasing likelihood of conversion to nonforest uses. Monitoring and evaluation are essential to verify that regulations and good practices are achieving goals and to enable timely responses if problems arise. Conducting rigorous research to understand how conditions change in response to management choices requires baseline data, monitoring, and appropriate reference scenarios. Long‐term monitoring data on forest conditions should be publicly accessible and utilized to inform adaptive management.  相似文献   

2.
    
Many climate change mitigation strategies rely on strong projected growth in biomass energy, supported by literature estimating high future bioenergy potential. However, expectations to 2050 are highly divergent. Examining the most widely cited studies finds that some assumptions in these models are inconsistent with the best available evidence. By identifying literature‐supported, up‐to‐date assumptions for parameters including crop yields, land availability, and costs, we revise upper‐end estimates of potential biomass availability from dedicated energy crops. Even allowing for the conversion of virtually all ‘unused’ grassland and savannah, we find that the maximum plausible limit to sustainable energy crop production in 2050 would be 40–110 EJ yr?1. Combined with forestry, crop residues, and wastes, the maximum limit to long‐term total biomass availability is 60–120 EJ yr?1 in primary energy. After accounting for current trends in bioenergy allocation and conversion losses, we estimate maximum potentials of 10–20 EJ yr?1 of biofuel, 20–40 EJ yr?1 of electricity, and 10–30 EJ yr?1 of heating in 2050. These findings suggest that many technical projections and aspirational goals for future bioenergy use could be difficult or impossible to achieve sustainably.  相似文献   

3.
唐梦  陈静  杨灵懿  贾翔  刘济铭  段劼 《生态学报》2023,43(24):10156-10170
生物燃油树种是发展生物质能源,实现化石能源替代战略的重要物质基础,明确当前和未来气候变化下我国生物燃油树种适生区分布,对保护和利用生物燃油树种,促进林业生物能源产业发展,保障能源安全和实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。基于我国10个主要生物燃油树种的1037条树种分布数据和20个环境变量,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)预测了各树种当前和未来气候情景下(2050年和2070年的RCP4.5情景)的潜在适生区,得到了影响各树种分布贡献率最大的环境因子,并对我国各区域主要种植树种进行了区划。结果表明：(1)MaxEent模型预测效果较好,各树种模拟结果AUC值均在0.9以上。(2)影响各种分布的贡献率较高的环境因子因树种而异,最暖季度降水量和温度季节性变化标准差的相对贡献率较高。(3)10个生物燃油树种极高适生区面积范围在43.38万km2—117.74万km2之间,可根据模拟结果将树种分布划分为北部、中东部、东南部和西南部4个亚区,北部亚区主要树种为文冠果(Xanthoceras sorbifolium)和欧李(Cerasus humilis),中东...  相似文献   

4.
  总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
Energy crops currently contribute a relatively small proportion to the total energy produced from biomass each year, but the proportion is set to grow over the next few decades. This paper reviews the current status of energy crops and their conversion technologies, assesses their potential to contribute to global energy demand and climate mitigation over the next few decades, and examines the future prospects. Previous estimates have suggested a technical potential for energy crops of～400 EJ yr?1 by 2050. In a new analysis based on energy crop areas for each of the IPCC SRES scenarios in 2025 (as projected by the IMAGE 2.2 integrated assessment model), more conservative dry matter and energy yield estimates and an assessment of the impact on non‐CO2 greenhouse gases were used to estimate the realistically achievable potential for energy crops by 2025 to be between 2 and 22 EJ yr?1, which will offset～100–2070 Mt CO2‐eq. yr?1. These results suggest that additional production of energy crops alone is not sufficient to reduce emissions to meet a 550 μmol mol?1 atmospheric CO2 stabilization trajectory, but is sufficient to form an important component in a portfolio of climate mitigation measures, as well as to provide a significant sustainable energy resource to displace fossil fuel resources. Realizing the potential of energy crops will necessitate optimizing the dry matter and energy yield of these crops per area of land through the latest biotechnological routes, with or without the need for genetic modification. In future, the co‐benefits of bioenergy production will need to be optimized and methods will need to be developed to extract and refine high‐value products from the feedstock before it is used for energy production.  相似文献   

5.
    
Utility of perennial bioenergy crops (e.g., switchgrass and miscanthus) offers unique opportunities to transition toward a more sustainable energy pathway due to their reduced carbon footprint, averted competition with food crops, and ability to grow on abandoned and degraded farmlands. Studies that have examined biogeophysical impacts of these crops noted a positive feedback between near‐surface cooling and enhanced evapotranspiration (ET), but also potential unintended consequences of soil moisture and groundwater depletion. To better understand hydrometeorological effects of perennial bioenergy crop expansion, this study conducted high‐resolution (2‐km grid spacing) simulations with a state‐of‐the‐art atmospheric model (Weather Research and Forecasting system) dynamically coupled to a land surface model. We applied the modeling system over the Southern Plains of the United States during a normal precipitation year (2007) and a drought year (2011). By focusing the deployment of bioenergy cropping systems on marginal and abandoned farmland areas (to reduce the potential conflict with food systems), the research presented here is the first realistic examination of hydrometeorological impacts associated with perennial bioenergy crop expansion. Our results illustrate that the deployment of perennial bioenergy crops leads to widespread cooling (1–2 °C) that is largely driven by an enhanced reflection of shortwave radiation and, secondarily, due to an enhanced ET. Bioenergy crop deployment was shown to reduce the impacts of drought through simultaneous moistening and cooling of the near‐surface environment. However, simulated impacts on near‐surface cooling and ET were reduced during the drought relative to a normal precipitation year, revealing differential effects based on background environmental conditions. This study serves as a key step toward the assessment of hydroclimatic sustainability associated with perennial bioenergy crop expansion under diverse hydrometeorological conditions by highlighting the driving mechanisms and processes associated with this energy pathway.  相似文献   

6.
    
This study presents supply scenarios of nonfood renewable jet fuel (RJF) in the European Union (EU) toward 2030, based on the anticipated regulatory context, availability of biomass and conversion technologies, and competing biomass demand from other sectors (i.e., transport, heat, power, and chemicals). A cost optimization model was used to identify preconditions for increased RJF production and the associated emission reductions, costs, and impact on competing sectors. Model scenarios show nonfood RJF supply could increase from 1 PJ in 2021 to 165–261 PJ/year (3.8–6.1 million tonne (Mt)/year) by 2030, provided advanced biofuel technologies are developed and adequate (policy) incentives are present. This supply corresponds to 6%–9% of jet fuel consumption and 28%–41% of total nonfood biofuel consumption in the EU. These results are driven by proposed policy incentives and a relatively high fossil jet fuel price compared to other fossil fuels. RJF reduces aviation‐related combustion emission by 12–19 Mt/year CO2‐eq by 2030, offsetting 53%–84% of projected emission growth of the sector in the EU relative to 2020. Increased RJF supply mainly affects nonfood biofuel use in road transport, which remained relatively constant during 2021–2030. The cost differential of RJF relative to fossil jet fuel declines from 40 €/GJ (1,740 €/t) in 2021 to 7–13 €/GJ (280–540 €/t) in 2030, because of the introduction of advanced biofuel technologies, technological learning, increased fossil jet fuel prices, and reduced feedstock costs. The cumulative additional costs of RJF equal €7.7–11 billion over 2021–2030 or €1.0–1.4 per departing passenger (intra‐EU) when allocated to the aviation sector. By 2030, 109–213 PJ/year (2.5–4.9 Mt/year) RJF is produced from lignocellulosic biomass using technologies which are currently not yet commercialized. Hence, (policy) mechanisms that expedite technology development are cardinal to the feasibility and affordability of increasing RJF production.  相似文献   

7.
    
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8.
    
Production of woody biomass for bioenergy, whether wood pellets or liquid biofuels, has the potential to cause substantial landscape change and concomitant effects on forest ecosystems, but the landscape effects of alternative production scenarios have not been fully assessed. We simulated landscape change from 2010 to 2050 under five scenarios of woody biomass production for wood pellets and liquid biofuels in North Carolina, in the southeastern United States, a region that is a substantial producer of wood biomass for bioenergy and contains high biodiversity. Modeled scenarios varied biomass feedstocks, incorporating harvest of ‘conventional’ forests, which include naturally regenerating as well as planted forests that exist on the landscape even without bioenergy production, as well as purpose‐grown woody crops grown on marginal lands. Results reveal trade‐offs among scenarios in terms of overall forest area and the characteristics of the remaining forest in 2050. Meeting demand for biomass from conventional forests resulted in more total forest land compared with a baseline, business‐as‐usual scenario. However, the remaining forest was composed of more intensively managed forest and less of the bottomland hardwood and longleaf pine habitats that support biodiversity. Converting marginal forest to purpose‐grown crops reduced forest area, but the remaining forest contained more of the critical habitats for biodiversity. Conversion of marginal agricultural lands to purpose‐grown crops resulted in smaller differences from the baseline scenario in terms of forest area and the characteristics of remaining forest habitats. Each scenario affected the dominant type of land‐use change in some regions, especially in the coastal plain that harbors high levels of biodiversity. Our results demonstrate the complex landscape effects of alternative bioenergy scenarios, highlight that the regions most likely to be affected by bioenergy production are also critical for biodiversity, and point to the challenges associated with evaluating bioenergy sustainability.  相似文献   

9.
    
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10.
We assessed the potential impacts of land-use changes resulting from a change in the current biofuel policy on biodiversity in Europe. We evaluated the possible impact of both arable and woody biofuel crops on changes in distribution of 313 species pertaining to different taxonomic groups. Using species-specific information on habitat suitability as well as land use simulations for three different biofuel policy options, we downscaled available species distribution data from the original resolution of 50 to 1 km. The downscaled maps were then applied to analyse potential changes in habitat size and species composition at different spatial levels. Our results indicate that more species might suffer from habitat losses rather than benefit from a doubled biofuel target, while abolishing the biofuel target would mainly have positive effects. However, the possible impacts vary spatially and depend on the biofuel crop choice, with woody crops being less detrimental than arable crops. Our results give an indication for policy and decision makers of what might happen to biodiversity under a changed biofuel policy in the European Union. The presented approach is considered to be innovative as to date no comparable policy impact assessment has been applied to such a large set of key species at the European scale.  相似文献   

11.
    
Sustainable alternatives to fossil fuels are urgently needed to avoid severe climate impacts and further environmental degradation. Microalgae are one of the most productive crops globally and do not need to compete for arable land or freshwater resources. Hence, they may become a promising, more sustainable cultivation alternative for the large‐scale production of biofuels provided that substantial reductions are achieved in their production costs. In this study, we identify the most suitable areas globally for siting microalgal farms for biodiesel production that maximize profitability and minimize direct competition with food production and direct impacts on biodiversity, based on a spatially explicit multiple‐criteria decision analysis. We further explore the relationships between microalgal production, agricultural value, and biodiversity, and propose several solutions for siting microalgal production farms, based on current and future targets in energy production using integer linear programming. If using seawater for microalgal cultivation, biodiesel production could reach 5.85 × 1011 L/year based on top suitable lands (i.e., between 13% and 16% of total transport energy demands in 2030) without directly competing with food production and areas of high biodiversity value. These areas are particularly abundant in the dry coasts of North and East Africa, the Middle East, and western South America. This is the first global analysis that incorporates economic and environmental feasibility for microalgal production sites. Our results can guide the selection of best locations for biofuel production using microalgae while minimizing conflicts with food production and biodiversity conservation.  相似文献   

12.
    
Forests provide important ecological, economic, and social services, and recent interest has emerged in the potential for using residue from timber harvest as a source of renewable woody bioenergy. The long‐term consequences of such intensive harvest are unclear, particularly as forests face novel climatic conditions over the next century. We used a simulation model to project the long‐term effects of management and climate change on above‐ and belowground forest carbon storage in a watershed in northwestern Oregon. The multi‐ownership watershed has a diverse range of current management practices, including little‐to‐no harvesting on federal lands, short‐rotation clear‐cutting on industrial land, and a mix of practices on private nonindustrial land. We simulated multiple management scenarios, varying the rate and intensity of harvest, combined with projections of climate change. Our simulations project a wide range of total ecosystem carbon storage with varying harvest rate, ranging from a 45% increase to a 16% decrease in carbon compared to current levels. Increasing the intensity of harvest for bioenergy caused a 2–3% decrease in ecosystem carbon relative to conventional harvest practices. Soil carbon was relatively insensitive to harvest rotation and intensity, and accumulated slowly regardless of harvest regime. Climate change reduced carbon accumulation in soil and detrital pools due to increasing heterotrophic respiration, and had small but variable effects on aboveground live carbon and total ecosystem carbon. Overall, we conclude that current levels of ecosystem carbon storage are maintained in part due to substantial portions of the landscape (federal and some private lands) remaining unharvested or lightly managed. Increasing the intensity of harvest for bioenergy on currently harvested land, however, led to a relatively small reduction in the ability of forests to store carbon. Climate change is unlikely to substantially alter carbon storage in these forests, absent shifts in disturbance regimes.  相似文献   

13.
    
Recent prolonged droughts and catastrophic wildfires in the western United States have raised concerns about the potential for forest mortality to impact forest structure, forest ecosystem services, and the economic vitality of communities in the coming decades. We used the Community Land Model (CLM) to determine forest vulnerability to mortality from drought and fire by the year 2049. We modified CLM to represent 13 major forest types in the western United States and ran simulations at a 4‐km grid resolution, driven with climate projections from two general circulation models under one emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). We developed metrics of vulnerability to short‐term extreme and prolonged drought based on annual allocation to stem growth and net primary productivity. We calculated fire vulnerability based on changes in simulated future area burned relative to historical area burned. Simulated historical drought vulnerability was medium to high in areas with observations of recent drought‐related mortality. Comparisons of observed and simulated historical area burned indicate simulated future fire vulnerability could be underestimated by 3% in the Sierra Nevada and overestimated by 3% in the Rocky Mountains. Projections show that water‐limited forests in the Rocky Mountains, Southwest, and Great Basin regions will be the most vulnerable to future drought‐related mortality, and vulnerability to future fire will be highest in the Sierra Nevada and portions of the Rocky Mountains. High carbon‐density forests in the Pacific coast and western Cascades regions are projected to be the least vulnerable to either drought or fire. Importantly, differences in climate projections lead to only 1% of the domain with conflicting low and high vulnerability to fire and no area with conflicting drought vulnerability. Our drought vulnerability metrics could be incorporated as probabilistic mortality rates in earth system models, enabling more robust estimates of the feedbacks between the land and atmosphere over the 21st century.  相似文献   

14.
    
We collected information on 860 stream restoration projects in four states in the southeastern United States—Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, and South Carolina—to gain a better understanding of the practice of stream restoration in this area of high aquatic biodiversity and rapid metropolitan expansion. This was completed as a part of the National River Restoration Science Synthesis, with the larger goal of understanding the state of the science of stream restoration. Stream restoration project density, goals, and monitoring rates varied by state, although southeastern monitoring rates were higher than in other parts of the country. North Carolina had the most projects in the Southeast, of which 36% were monitored. In‐depth phone interviews with project managers from a random subsample of projects provided insights into the process of stream restoration. Land availability was the most common basis for site prioritization, and 49% of projects involved mitigation. Although 51% of projects were associated with a watershed assessment, only 30% of projects were done as part of a larger plan for the watershed. Projects were monitored using physical (77% of monitored projects), chemical (36%), and biological (86%) variables, although many projects were planned and ultimately evaluated based on public opinion. Our results suggest that stream restoration in the southeastern United States is at an exciting point where better incorporation of a watershed perspective into planning and establishment and evaluation of stated, measurable success criteria for every project could lead to more effective projects.  相似文献   

15.
    
Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity have not yet been compared. We assess projected range shifts of 156 European bird species by 2050 under two alternative climate change trajectories: a baseline scenario, where the global mean temperature increases by 4 °C by the end of the century, and a 2 degrees scenario, where global concerted effort limits the temperature increase to below 2 °C. For the latter scenario, we also quantify the pressure exerted by increased cultivation of energy biomass as modelled by IMAGE2.4, an integrated land use model. The global bioenergy use in this scenario is in the lower end of the range of previously estimated sustainable potential. Under the assumptions of these scenarios, we find that the magnitude of range shifts due to climate change is far greater than the impact of land conversion to woody bioenergy plantations within the European Union, and that mitigation of climate change reduces the exposure experienced by species. However, we identified potential for local conservation conflict between priority areas for conservation and bioenergy production. These conflicts must be addressed by strict bioenergy sustainability criteria that acknowledge biodiversity conservation needs beyond existing protected areas and apply also to biomass imported from outside the European Union.  相似文献   

16.
    
《Ecology and evolution》2017,7(1):145-188
The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems ( www.predicts.org.uk )—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.  相似文献   

17.
    
Life cycle assessment (LCA) was combined with primary data from nine forest harvesting operations in New York, Maine, Massachusetts, and Vermont, from 2013 to 2019 where forest biomass (FB) for bioenergy was one of several products. The objective was to conduct a data‐driven study of greenhouse gas emissions associated with FB feedstock harvesting operations in the Northeast United States. Deterministic and stochastic LCA models were built to simulate the current FB bioenergy feedstock supply chain in the Northeast US with a cradle‐to‐gate scope (forest harvest through roadside loading) and a functional unit of 1.0 Mg of green FB feedstock at a 50% moisture content. Baseline LCA, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty analyses were conducted for three different FB feedstock types—dirty chips, clean chips, and grindings—enabling an empirically driven investigation of differences between feedstock types, individual harvesting process contributions, and literature comparisons. The baseline LCA average impacts were lower for grindings (4.57 kg CO2eq/Mg) and dirty chips (7.16 kg CO2eq/Mg) than for clean chips (23.99 kg CO2eq/Mg) under economic allocation, but impacts were of similar magnitude under mass allocation, ranging from 24.42 to 27.89 kg CO2eq/Mg. Uncertainty analysis showed a wider range of probable results under mass allocation compared to economic allocation. Sensitivity analysis revealed the impact of variations in the production masses and total economic values of primary products of forest harvests on the LCA results due to allocation of supply chain emissions. The high variability in fuel use between logging contractors also had a distinct influence on LCA results. The results of this study can aid decision‐makers in energy policy and guide emissions reductions efforts while informing future LCAs that expand the system boundary to regional FB energy pathways, including electricity generation, transportation fuels, pellets for heat, and combined heat and power.  相似文献   

18.
    
Assessing how climate change information is used in conservation planning is an important part of meeting long-term conservation and climate adaptation goals. In the United States, state agencies responsible for fish and wildlife management create State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs) to identify conservation goals, prioritize actions, and establish plans for managing and monitoring target species and habitats. We created a rubric to assess and compare the use of climate change information in SWAPs for 10 states in the Intermountain West and Great Plains. Interviews with SWAP authors identified institutional factors influencing applications of climate change information. Access to professional networks and climate scientists, funding support for climate change vulnerability analysis, Congressional mandates to include climate change, and supportive agency leadership facilitate using climate change information. Political climate could either support or limit options for using this information. Together, the rubric and the interview results can be used to identify opportunities to improve the use of climate information, and to identify entry points to support conservation planning and natural resource managers in successful adaptation to climate change. This research is directly relevant to future SWAP revisions, which most states will complete by 2025, and more broadly to other conservation planning processes.  相似文献   

19.
Summary The Carbon Farming Initiative (CFI) allows the creation of tradable Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) derived from across the ecosystem sector via project‐level baseline and credit activities: it is the first national offset scheme in the world to broadly include farming and forestry projects. Because these activities have the potential to produce both biodiversity and climate change benefits, a crucial outcome is for widespread uptake of the policy. However, the design, complexity and cost of the CFI project development process, and low prices as a result of ACCUs trading in the voluntary market, will all likely militate against this. This article shows how international politics and policy surrounding the Kyoto Protocol have influenced the design of the CFI, with its potential to proliferate complex and narrow methodologies and counter‐productive approaches to integrity standards such as permanence. The article shows that despite the pressing need to integrate biodiversity and climate change considerations as equally important challenges, their global integration remains poorly articulated. Biodiversity considerations are also not integrated into the CFI but, rather, are dealt with indirectly through safeguard measures that avoid perverse incentives and unintended harm, and as an optional co‐benefit via the development of an index. This article suggests that we need to move past the shackles of Kyoto towards streamlined and standardized approaches such as risk‐based assessments and the use of regional baselines. Using regionally specific baselines such as for avoided deforestation would allow landholders to opt‐in to regional‐scale mitigation opportunities. Activities that Australia accounts for, such as reforestation and deforestation, should also be able to opt‐in for coverage under the Clean Energy Act (and out of the voluntary carbon market) to obtain a secure price.  相似文献   

20.
    
The effects of habitat fragmentation on different taxa and ecosystems are subject to intense debate, and disentangling them is of utmost importance to support conservation and management strategies. We evaluated the importance of landscape composition and configuration, and spatial heterogeneity to explain α- and β-diversity of mammals across a gradient of percent woody cover and land use diversity. We expected species richness to be positively related to all predictive variables, with the strongest relationship with landscape composition and configuration, and spatial heterogeneity respectively. We also expected landscape to influence β-diversity in the same order of importance expected for species richness, with a stronger influence on nestedness due to deterministic loss of species more sensitive to habitat disturbance. We analyzed landscape structure using: (a) landscape metrics based on thematic maps and (b) image texture of a vegetation index. We compared a set of univariate explanatory models of species richness using AIC, and evaluated how dissimilarities in landscape composition and configuration and spatial heterogeneity affect β-diversity components using a Multiple Regression on distance Matrix. Contrary with our expectations, landscape configuration was the main driver of species richness, followed by spatial heterogeneity and last by landscape composition. Nestedness was explained, in order of importance, by spatial heterogeneity, landscape configuration, and landscape composition. Although conservation policies tend to focus mainly on habitat amount, we advocate that landscape management must include strategies to preserve and improve habitat quality and complexity in natural patches and the surrounding matrix, enabling landscapes to harbor high species diversity.  相似文献   

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