Range reshuffling: Climate change,invasive species,and the case of Nothofagus forests in Aotearoa New Zealand

Aim

The impact of climate change on forest biodiversity and ecosystem services will be partly determined by the relative fortunes of invasive and native forest trees under future conditions. Aotearoa New Zealand has high conservation value native forests and one of the world's worst invasive tree problems. We assess the relative effects of habitat redistribution on native Nothofagus and invasive conifer (Pinaceae) species in New Zealand as a case study on the compounding impacts of climate change and tree invasions.

Location

Aotearoa New Zealand.

Methods

We use species distribution models (SDMs) to predict the current and future distribution of habitat for five native Nothofagus species and 13 invasive conifer species under two 2070 climate scenarios. We calculate habitat loss/gain for all species and examine overlap between the invasive and native species now and in future.

Results

Most species will lose habitat overall. The native species saw large changes in the distribution of habitat with extensive losses in North Island and gains mostly in South Island. Concerningly, we found that most new habitat for Nothofagus was also suitable for at least one invasive species. However, there were refugia for the native species in the wetter parts of the climate space.

Main Conclusion

If the predicted changes in habitat distribution translate to shifts in forest distribution, it would cause widespread ecological disruption. We discuss how acclimation, adaptation and biotic interactions may prevent/delay some changes. But we also highlight that the poor establishment capacity of Nothofagus, and the contrasting ability of the conifers to invade, will present persistent conservation challenges in areas of both new habitat and forest retreat. Pinaceae are problematic invaders globally, and our results highlight that control of invasions and active native forest restoration will likely be key to managing forest biodiversity under future climates.     

Modelling the impact of Hieracium spp. on protected areas in Australia under future climates

Anthropogenically-induced climate change is one of the most important global threats to biodiversity. Understanding its impact on the distribution of exotic plant species is critical for developing effective adaptation and management strategies. However, there is insufficient information currently available on the biodiversity at risk from 1) exotic plant invasions, 2) climate change, and 3) the interaction between these two major threats, to develop such strategies. We use ecological niche models as a first step to identify zones inside and outside Australian protected areas that may be most at risk from invasions of three species of Hieracium (hawkweeds) under current and future (2030 and 2070) climate scenarios, should current control and eradication methods fail. These perennial herbs are native to Europe and invasive to New Zealand and North America. Naturalised in Australia, hawkweeds threaten native tussock grasslands and the grazing industry, and have been placed on the National Alert List. Using eight ecological niche models currently available in the software package BIOMOD, we found that these species have yet to realize the extent of their climatic distribution under present day climate in Australia. As climate change accelerates, the climatic range of hawkweeds was projected to contract overall. However, much of the Australian Alps, which contain large contiguous tracts of reserves and many endemic species, will continue to retain climatically suitable areas for hawkweeds through to 2070. These results emphasise the need for ongoing monitoring as well as focused control to minimize the likelihood of hawkweeds realizing their invasive potential in protected areas and beyond.     

Impacts of a simulated heat wave on composition of a marine community

Extreme events, such as heat waves, are predicted to increase in frequency, duration, and severity as a consequence of climate change. However, global change research generally focuses on increases in mean temperatures and fails to address the potential impacts of increasingly severe heat waves. In addition, climate change may interact with another primary threat to biodiversity, non‐native species invasions. We assessed the impacts of a short‐term heat wave on the marine epibenthic fouling community of Bodega Harbor, California, USA, by exposing experimental mesocosms to a simulated heat wave in the laboratory and then monitoring community development in the field. We hypothesized that (1) juveniles would be more susceptible to heat waves than adults, (2) native species would be more susceptible than non‐native species, and (3) non‐native species would recover more quickly than native species. We observed no effect of the heat wave on juvenile species richness, either initially or during the recovery period, relative to communities at ambient seawater temperatures. In contrast, total adult species richness initially declined in response to the heat wave. Adult community composition also changed in heat‐wave treatments, with non‐natives representing the majority of species and occupying more cover than native species. The reduction in native richness associated with the heat wave persisted through the recovery period, whereas invasive richness was actually higher on heat‐wave versus ambient plates at 95 days. Heat waves have the potential to alter the composition of this community because of species‐, taxon‐, and/or origin‐specific responses; for example, non‐native bryozoans displayed greater resistance than native and non‐native tunicates. Recovery from the heat wave occurred via growth of resistant individuals and larval recruitment. Our study highlights the importance of considering species’ and community responses to heat waves, and not just mean predicted temperature increases, to evaluate the consequences of climate change.     

The future of terrestrial mammals in the Mediterranean basin under climate change

The Mediterranean basin is considered a hotspot of biological diversity with a long history of modification of natural ecosystems by human activities, and is one of the regions that will face extensive changes in climate. For 181 terrestrial mammals (68% of all Mediterranean mammals), we used an ensemble forecasting approach to model the future (approx. 2100) potential distribution under climate change considering five climate change model outputs for two climate scenarios. Overall, a substantial number of Mediterranean mammals will be severely threatened by future climate change, particularly endemic species. Moreover, we found important changes in potential species richness owing to climate change, with some areas (e.g. montane region in central Italy) gaining species, while most of the region will be losing species (mainly Spain and North Africa). Existing protected areas (PAs) will probably be strongly influenced by climate change, with most PAs in Africa, the Middle East and Spain losing a substantial number of species, and those PAs gaining species (e.g. central Italy and southern France) will experience a substantial shift in species composition.     

Insights from modeling studies on how climate change affects invasive alien species geography

Climate change and biological invasions are threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. It has now been widely acknowledged that climate change will affect biological invasions. A large number of studies have investigated predicted shifts and other changes in the geographic ranges of invasive alien species related to climate change using modeling approaches. Yet these studies have provided contradictory evidence, and no consensus has been reached. We conducted a systematic review of 423 modeling case studies included in 71 publications that have examined the predicted effects of climate change on those species. We differentiate the approaches used in these studies and synthesize their main results. Our results reaffirm the major role of climate change as a driver of invasive alien species distribution in the future. We found biases in the literature both regarding the taxa, toward plants and invertebrates, and the areas of the planet investigated. Despite these biases, we found for the plants and vertebrates studied that climate change will more frequently contribute to a decrease in species range size than an increase in the overall area occupied. This is largely due to oceans preventing terrestrial invaders from spreading poleward. In contrast, we found that the ranges of invertebrates and pathogens studied are more likely to increase following climate change. An important caveat to these findings is that researchers have rarely considered the effects of climate change on transport, introduction success, or the resulting impacts. We recommend closing these research gaps, and propose additional avenues for future investigations, as well as opportunities and challenges for managing invasions under climate change.     

Antarctica: The final frontier for marine biological invasions

Antarctica is experiencing significant ecological and environmental change, which may facilitate the establishment of non‐native marine species. Non‐native marine species will interact with other anthropogenic stressors affecting Antarctic ecosystems, such as climate change (warming, ocean acidification) and pollution, with irreversible ramifications for biodiversity and ecosystem services. We review current knowledge of non‐native marine species in the Antarctic region, the physical and physiological factors that resist establishment of non‐native marine species, changes to resistance under climate change, the role of legislation in limiting marine introductions, and the effect of increasing human activity on vectors and pathways of introduction. Evidence of non‐native marine species is limited: just four marine non‐native and one cryptogenic species that were likely introduced anthropogenically have been reported freely living in Antarctic or sub‐Antarctic waters, but no established populations have been reported; an additional six species have been observed in pathways to Antarctica that are potentially at risk of becoming invasive. We present estimates of the intensity of ship activity across fishing, tourism and research sectors: there may be approximately 180 vessels and 500+ voyages in Antarctic waters annually. However, these estimates are necessarily speculative because relevant data are scarce. To facilitate well‐informed policy and management, we make recommendations for future research into the likelihood of marine biological invasions in the Antarctic region.     

Plant invasions differentially affected by diversity and dominant species in native‐ and exotic‐dominated grasslands

Plant invasions are an increasingly serious global concern, especially as the climate changes. Here, we explored how plant invasions differed between native‐ and novel exotic‐dominated grasslands with experimental addition of summer precipitation in Texas in 2009. Exotic species greened up earlier than natives by an average of 18 days. This was associated with a lower invasion rate early in the growing season compared to native communities. However, invasion rate did not differ significantly between native and exotic communities across all sampling times. The predictors of invasion rate differed between native and exotic communities, with invasion being negatively influenced by species richness in natives and by dominant species in exotics. Interestingly, plant invasions matched the bimodal pattern of precipitation in Temple, Texas, and did not respond to the pulse of precipitation during the summer. Our results suggest that we will need to take different approaches in understanding of invasion between native and exotic grasslands. Moreover, with anticipated increasing variability in precipitation under global climate change, plant invasions may be constrained in their response if the precipitation pulses fall outside the normal growing period of invaders.     

Invasive aliens on tropical East Asian islands

Tropical East Asia (TEA) has numerous islands, both continental and oceanic. This study uses information on invasive aliens in terrestrial habitats on these islands to test the generality of the continental-oceanic contrast in invasibility, assess the conservation impacts of invasive species, and suggest ways to mitigate these. The continental islands of Hong Kong and Singapore are worst-case scenarios for continental invasibility and alien species often dominate in chronically disturbed sites, but very few have successfully invaded closed forests, with the exception of birds in Hong Kong. On other, less densely populated, continental islands, closed-canopy forests appear to resist invasions by all taxa, with few known exceptions. Forests on oceanic islands isolated by <100 km during the last glacial maximum appear no more susceptible to plant and invertebrate invasions than those on continental islands, but invasions by mammals are widespread. Snake invasions may be under-recognized. The remote oceanic Ogasawara (Bonin) Islands, >1000 km from the nearest continent, have a native biota of largely tropical East Asian origin and are suffering from alien forest invasions across the taxonomic spectrum. These patterns of invasibility are consistent with the idea that alien invasion is facilitated by the absence of native species in the same functional group. Alien invasives are not yet a major conservation problem in TEA, except on remote islands, but their dominance on disturbed sites may slow or prevent recovery of native biodiversity. Strict quarantine is impractical in TEA, although some major introduction routes could be blocked. Management efforts should focus on early recognition and immediate control of potential problem species.     

Niche shift can impair the ability to predict invasion risk in the marine realm: an illustration using Mediterranean fish invaders

Climatic niche conservatism, the tendency of species‐climate associations to remain unchanged across space and time, is pivotal for forecasting the spread of invasive species and biodiversity changes. Indeed, it represents one of the key assumptions underlying species distribution models (SDMs), the main tool currently available for predicting range shifts of species. However, to date, no comprehensive assessment of niche conservatism is available for the marine realm. We use the invasion by Indo‐Pacific tropical fishes into the Mediterranean Sea, the world's most invaded marine basin, to examine the conservatism of the climatic niche. We show that tropical invaders may spread far beyond their native niches and that SDMs do not predict their new distributions better than null models. Our results suggest that SDMs may underestimate the potential spread of invasive species and call for prudence in employing these models in order to forecast species invasion and their response to environmental change.     

The future representativeness of Madagascar's protected area network in the face of climate change

With many species predicted to respond to a changing climate by shifting their distribution to climatically suitable areas, the effectiveness of static protected areas (PAs) is in question. The Madagascan PA network area has quadrupled over the past 15 years, and, although conservation planning techniques were employed to prioritise suitable areas for protection during this process, climate change impacts were not considered. We make use of species distribution models for 750 Madagascan vertebrate species to assess the potential impacts of climate change on (1) species richness across Madagascar, (2) species gain, loss and turnover in Madagascar's PAs and (3) PA network representativeness. Results indicate that Madagascar is predicted to experience substantial shifts in species richness, with most PAs predicted to experience high rates of species turnover. Provided there are no barriers to species movements, the representativeness of the current PA network will remain high for the species that are predicted to survive changes in climate by 2070, suggesting that little benefit will be gained from establishing new PAs. However, this rests on the assumption of mobility through areas currently characterised by fragmentation and anthropogenic activity, something that will require considerable expansion in conservation efforts in order to achieve.     

Predicting the number of ecologically harmful exotic species in an aquatic system

Most introduced species apparently have little impact on native biodiversity, but the proliferation of human vectors that transport species worldwide increases the probability of a region being affected by high-impact invaders – i.e. those that cause severe declines in native species populations. Our study determined whether the number of high-impact invaders can be predicted from the total number of invaders in an area, after controlling for species–area effects. These two variables are positively correlated in a set of 16 invaded freshwater and marine systems from around the world. The relationship is a simple linear function; there is no evidence of synergistic or antagonistic effects of invaders across systems. A similar relationship is found for introduced freshwater fishes across 149 regions. In both data sets, high-impact invaders comprise approximately 10% of the total number of invaders. Although the mechanism driving this correlation is likely a sampling effect, it is not simply the proportional sampling of a constant number of repeat-offenders; in most cases, an invader is not reported to have strong impacts on native species in the majority of regions it invades. These findings link vector activity and the negative impacts of introduced species on biodiversity, and thus justify management efforts to reduce invasion rates even where numerous invasions have already occurred.     

The Importance of the Human Footprint in Shaping the Global Distribution of Terrestrial,Freshwater and Marine Invaders

Human activities such as transport, trade and tourism are likely to influence the spatial distribution of non-native species and yet, Species Distribution Models (SDMs) that aim to predict the future broad scale distribution of invaders often rely on environmental (e.g. climatic) information only. This study investigates if and to what extent do human activities that directly or indirectly influence nature (hereafter the human footprint) affect the global distribution of invasive species in terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. We selected 72 species including terrestrial plants, terrestrial animals, freshwater and marine invasive species of concern in a focus area located in NW Europe (encompassing Great Britain, France, The Netherlands and Belgium). Species Distribution Models were calibrated with the global occurrence of species and a set of high-resolution (9×9 km) environmental (e.g. topography, climate, geology) layers and human footprint proxies (e.g. the human influence index, population density, road proximity). Our analyses suggest that the global occurrence of a wide range of invaders is primarily limited by climate. Temperature tolerance was the most important factor and explained on average 42% of species distribution. Nevertheless, factors related to the human footprint explained a substantial amount (23% on average) of species distributions. When global models were projected into the focus area, spatial predictions integrating the human footprint featured the highest cumulative risk scores close to transport networks (proxy for invasion pathways) and in habitats with a high human influence index (proxy for propagule pressure). We conclude that human related information–currently available in the form of easily accessible maps and databases—should be routinely implemented into predictive frameworks to inform upon policies to prevent and manage invasions. Otherwise we might be seriously underestimating the species and areas under highest risk of future invasions.     

Simulating plant invasion dynamics in mountain ecosystems under global change scenarios

Across the globe, invasive alien species cause severe environmental changes, altering species composition and ecosystem functions. So far, mountain areas have mostly been spared from large‐scale invasions. However, climate change, land‐use abandonment, the development of tourism and the increasing ornamental trade will weaken the barriers to invasions in these systems. Understanding how alien species will react and how native communities will influence their success is thus of prime importance in a management perspective. Here, we used a spatially and temporally explicit simulation model to forecast invasion risks in a protected mountain area in the French Alps under future conditions. We combined scenarios of climate change, land‐use abandonment and tourism‐linked increases in propagule pressure to test if the spread of alien species in the region will increase in the future. We modelled already naturalized alien species and new ornamental plants, accounting for interactions among global change components, and also competition with the native vegetation. Our results show that propagule pressure and climate change will interact to increase overall species richness of both naturalized aliens and new ornamentals, as well as their upper elevational limits and regional range‐sizes. Under climate change, woody aliens are predicted to more than double in range‐size and herbaceous species to occupy up to 20% of the park area. In contrast, land‐use abandonment will open new invasion opportunities for woody aliens, but decrease invasion probability for naturalized and ornamental alien herbs as a consequence of colonization by native trees. This emphasizes the importance of interactions with the native vegetation either for facilitating or potentially for curbing invasions. Overall, our work highlights an additional and previously underestimated threat for the fragile mountain flora of the Alps already facing climate changes, land‐use transformations and overexploitation by tourism.     

Conceptualising the interactive effects of climate change and biological invasions on subarctic freshwater fish

Climate change and species invasions represent key threats to global biodiversity. Subarctic freshwaters are sentinels for understanding both stressors because the effects of climate change are disproportionately strong at high latitudes and invasion of temperate species is prevalent. Here, we summarize the environmental effects of climate change and illustrate the ecological responses of freshwater fishes to these effects, spanning individual, population, community and ecosystem levels. Climate change is modifying hydrological cycles across atmospheric, terrestrial and aquatic components of subarctic ecosystems, causing increases in ambient water temperature and nutrient availability. These changes affect the individual behavior, habitat use, growth and metabolism, alter population spawning and recruitment dynamics, leading to changes in species abundance and distribution, modify food web structure, trophic interactions and energy flow within communities and change the sources, quantity and quality of energy and nutrients in ecosystems. Increases in temperature and its variability in aquatic environments underpin many ecological responses; however, altered hydrological regimes, increasing nutrient inputs and shortened ice cover are also important drivers of climate change effects and likely contribute to context‐dependent responses. Species invasions are a complex aspect of the ecology of climate change because the phenomena of invasion are both an effect and a driver of the ecological consequences of climate change. Using subarctic freshwaters as an example, we illustrate how climate change can alter three distinct aspects of species invasions: (1) the vulnerability of ecosystems to be invaded, (2) the potential for species to spread and invade new habitats, and (3) the subsequent ecological effects of invaders. We identify three fundamental knowledge gaps focused on the need to determine (1) how environmental and landscape characteristics influence the ecological impact of climate change, (2) the separate and combined effects of climate and non‐native invading species and (3) the underlying ecological processes or mechanisms responsible for changes in patterns of biodiversity.     

Reduced vertebrate diversity independent of spatial scale following feral swine invasions

Biological invasions often have contrasting consequences with reports of invasions decreasing diversity at small scales and facilitating diversity at large scales. Thus, previous literature has concluded that invasions have a fundamental spatial scale‐dependent relationship with diversity. Whether the scale‐dependent effects apply to vertebrate invaders is questionable because studies consistently report that vertebrate invasions produce different outcomes than plant or invertebrate invasions. Namely, vertebrate invasions generally have a larger effect size on species richness and vertebrate invaders commonly cause extinction, whereas extinctions are rare following invertebrate or plant invasions. In an agroecosystem invaded by a non‐native ungulate (i.e., feral swine, Sus scrofa), we monitored species richness of native vertebrates in forest fragments ranging across four orders of magnitude in area. We tested three predictions of the scale‐dependence hypothesis: (a) Vertebrate species richness would positively increase with area, (b) the species richness y‐intercept would be lower when invaded, and (c) the rate of native species accumulation with area would be steeper when invaded. Indeed, native vertebrate richness increased with area and the species richness was 26% lower than should be expected when the invasive ungulate was present. However, there was no evidence that the relationship was scale dependent. Our data indicate the scale‐dependent effect of biological invasions may not apply to vertebrate invasions.     

Extinction and time help drive the marine‐terrestrial biodiversity gradient: is the ocean a deathtrap?

The marine‐terrestrial richness gradient is among Earth's most dramatic biodiversity patterns, but its causes remain poorly understood. Here, we analyse detailed phylogenies of amniote clades, paleontological data and simulations to reveal the mechanisms underlying low marine richness, emphasising speciation, extinction and colonisation. We show that differences in diversification rates (speciation minus extinction) between habitats are often weak and inconsistent with observed richness patterns. Instead, the richness gradient is explained by limited time for speciation in marine habitats, since all extant marine clades are relatively young. Paleontological data show that older marine invasions have consistently ended in extinction. Simulations show that marine extinctions help drive the pattern of young, depauperate marine clades. This role for extinction is not discernible from molecular phylogenies alone, and not predicted by most previously hypothesised explanations for this gradient. Our results have important implications for the marine‐terrestrial biodiversity gradient, and studies of biodiversity gradients in general.     

Conservation of Chinese Theaceae species under future climate and land use changes

Aim

Climate and land use changes are two major pervasive and growing global causes of rapid changes in the distribution patterns of biodiversity, challenging the future effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), which were mainly designed based on a static view of biodiversity. Therefore, evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas for protecting the species threatened by climate and land use change is critical for future biodiversity conservation.

Location

China.

Methods

Here, using distributions of 200 Chinese Theaceae species and ensemble species distribution models, we identified species threatened by future climate and land use change (i.e. species with predicted loss of suitable habitat ≥30%) under scenarios incorporating climate change, land use change and dispersal. We then estimate the richness distribution patterns of threatened species and identify priority conservation areas and conservation gaps of the current PA network.

Results

Our results suggest that 36.30%–51.85% of Theaceae species will be threatened by future climate and land use conditions and that although the threatened species are mainly distributed at low latitudes in China under both current and future periods, the mean richness of the threatened species per grid cell will decline by 0.826–3.188 species by the 2070s. Moreover, we found that these priority conservation areas are highly fragmented and that the current PA network only covers 14.21%–20.87% of the ‘areas worth exploring’ and 6.91%–7.91% of the ‘areas worth attention’.

Main Conclusions

Our findings highlight the necessity of establishing new protected areas and ecological corridors in priority conservation areas to protect the threatened species. Moreover, our findings also highlight the importance of taking into consideration the potential threatened species under future climate and land use conditions when designating priority areas for biodiversity conservation.     

怒江河谷入侵植物与乡土植物丰富度的分布格局与影响因子

外来物种入侵严重威胁着乡土植物多样性并削弱了生态系统服务功能。本文基于滇西北怒江河谷植被调查的样方数据, 从群落水平研究了乡土和入侵植物多样性的空间分布格局, 以及地形、气候、人类干扰等因子对两种格局的影响。本研究共记录到外来入侵植物26种, 隶属于13科21属; 乡土植物1,145种, 分属于158科628属。沿着怒江河谷, 入侵植物物种丰富度随纬度与海拔的增加而减少; 乡土物种丰富度则随纬度增加而增加, 并在海拔梯度上呈单峰格局。运用广义线性模型分析公路边缘效应(反映生境干扰)、气候、地形和土壤等环境因素对物种丰富度分布格局的影响。等级方差分离的结果显示, 公路两侧的生境干扰对入侵种和乡土种的丰富度格局均具有首要影响。在自然环境因子中, 降水量是入侵植物丰富度的主要限制因子, 而乡土物种丰富度则主要受到地形因子尤其是坡向的影响。结构方程模型的分析结果也表明, 乡土植物和入侵植物丰富度之间的负相关关系反映了二者对环境响应的差异。本文结果支持物种入侵的资源可利用性限制假说, 并强调了人类活动对生物多样性的负面影响; 乡土植物或已较好地适应了干旱河谷气候, 但并没有显示出对外来物种入侵的抵抗作用。     

Poised to prosper? A cross‐system comparison of climate change effects on native and non‐native species performance

Climate change and biological invasions are primary threats to global biodiversity that may interact in the future. To date, the hypothesis that climate change will favour non‐native species has been examined exclusively through local comparisons of single or few species. Here, we take a meta‐analytical approach to broadly evaluate whether non‐native species are poised to respond more positively than native species to future climatic conditions. We compiled a database of studies in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems that reported performance measures of non‐native (157 species) and co‐occurring native species (204 species) under different temperature, CO₂ and precipitation conditions. Our analyses revealed that in terrestrial (primarily plant) systems, native and non‐native species responded similarly to environmental changes. By contrast, in aquatic (primarily animal) systems, increases in temperature and CO₂ largely inhibited native species. There was a general trend towards stronger responses among non‐native species, including enhanced positive responses to more favourable conditions and stronger negative responses to less favourable conditions. As climate change proceeds, aquatic systems may be particularly vulnerable to invasion. Across systems, there could be a higher risk of invasion at sites becoming more climatically hospitable, whereas sites shifting towards harsher conditions may become more resistant to invasions.     

Invasive non‐native species likely to threaten biodiversity and ecosystems in the Antarctic Peninsula region

The Antarctic is considered to be a pristine environment relative to other regions of the Earth, but it is increasingly vulnerable to invasions by marine, freshwater and terrestrial non‐native species. The Antarctic Peninsula region (APR), which encompasses the Antarctic Peninsula, South Shetland Islands and South Orkney Islands, is by far the most invaded part of the Antarctica continent. The risk of introduction of invasive non‐native species to the APR is likely to increase with predicted increases in the intensity, diversity and distribution of human activities. Parties that are signatories to the Antarctic Treaty have called for regional assessments of non‐native species risk. In response, taxonomic and Antarctic experts undertook a horizon scanning exercise using expert opinion and consensus approaches to identify the species that are likely to present the highest risk to biodiversity and ecosystems within the APR over the next 10 years. One hundred and three species, currently absent in the APR, were identified as relevant for review, with 13 species identified as presenting a high risk of invading the APR. Marine invertebrates dominated the list of highest risk species, with flowering plants and terrestrial invertebrates also represented; however, vertebrate species were thought unlikely to establish in the APR within the 10 year timeframe. We recommend (a) the further development and application of biosecurity measures by all stakeholders active in the APR, including surveillance for species such as those identified during this horizon scanning exercise, and (b) use of this methodology across the other regions of Antarctica. Without the application of appropriate biosecurity measures, rates of introductions and invasions within the APR are likely to increase, resulting in negative consequences for the biodiversity of the whole continent, as introduced species establish and spread further due to climate change and increasing human activity.