The fate of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century arising from changes in climate,atmospheric CO2, and land use

There is considerable interest in understanding the fate of the Amazon over the coming century in the face of climate change, rising atmospheric CO₂ levels, ongoing land transformation, and changing fire regimes within the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under the combined impact of these four environmental forcings using three terrestrial biosphere models (ED2, IBIS, and JULES) forced by three bias‐corrected IPCC AR4 climate projections (PCM1, CCSM3, and HadCM3) under two land‐use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO₂ fertilization, land‐use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent. Our results indicate that the impacts of climate change are primarily determined by the direction and severity of projected changes in regional precipitation: under the driest climate projection, climate change alone is predicted to reduce Amazonian forest cover by an average of 14%. However, the models predict that CO₂ fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate‐induced increases in plant water stress, and, as a result, sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario. Land‐use change and climate‐driven changes in fire frequency are predicted to cause additional aboveground biomass loss and reductions in forest extent. The relative impact of land use and fire dynamics compared to climate and CO₂ impacts varies considerably, depending on both the climate and land‐use scenario, and on the terrestrial biosphere model used, highlighting the importance of improved quantitative understanding of all four factors – climate change, CO₂ fertilization effects, fire, and land use – to the fate of the Amazon over the coming century.     

Response of maize biomass and soil water fluxes on elevated CO2 and drought—From field experiments to process‐based simulations

The rising concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) is known to increase the total aboveground biomass of several C3 crops, whereas C4 crops are reported to be hardly affected when water supply is sufficient. However, a free‐air carbon enrichment (FACE) experiment in Braunschweig, Germany, in 2007 and 2008 resulted in a 25% increased biomass of the C4 crop maize under restricted water conditions and elevated CO₂ (550 ppm). To project future yields of maize under climate change, an accurate representation of the effects of eCO₂ and drought on biomass and soil water conditions is essential. Current crop growth models reveal limitations in simulations of maize biomass under eCO₂ and limited water supply. We use the coupled process‐based hydrological‐plant growth model Catchment Modeling Framework‐Plant growth Modeling Framework to overcome this limitation. We apply the coupled model to the maize‐based FACE experiment in Braunschweig that provides robust data for the investigation of combined CO₂ and drought effects. We approve hypothesis I that CO₂ enrichment has a small direct‐fertilizing effect with regard to the total aboveground biomass of maize and hypothesis II that CO₂ enrichment decreases water stress and leads to higher yields of maize under restricted water conditions. Hypothesis III could partly be approved showing that CO₂ enrichment decreases the transpiration of maize, but does not raise soil moisture, while increasing evaporation. We emphasize the importance of plant‐specific CO₂ response factors derived by use of comprehensive FACE data. By now, only one FACE experiment on maize is accomplished applying different water levels. For the rigorous testing of plant growth models and their applicability in climate change studies, we call for datasets that go beyond single criteria (only yield response) and single effects (only elevated CO₂).     

Modelling the recent historical impacts of atmospheric CO2 and climate change on Mediterranean vegetation

During the past century, annual mean temperature has increased by 0.75°C and precipitation has shown marked variation throughout the Mediterranean basin. These historical climate changes may have had significant, but presently undefined, impacts on the productivity and structure of sclerophyllous shrubland, an important vegetation type in the region. We used a vegetation model for this functional type to examine climate change impacts, and their interaction with the concurrent historical rise in atmospheric CO₂. Using only climate and soil texture as data inputs, model predictions showed good agreement with observations of seasonal and regional variation in leaf and canopy physiology, net primary productivity (NPP), leaf area index (LAI) and soil water. Model simulations for shrubland sites indicated that potential NPP has risen by 25% and LAI by 7% during the past century, although the absolute increase in LAI was small. Sensitivity analysis suggested that the increase in atmospheric CO₂ since 1900 was the primary cause of these changes, and that simulated climate change alone had negative impacts on both NPP and LAI. Effects of rising CO₂ were mediated by significant increases in the efficiency of water‐use in NPP throughout the region, as a consequence of the direct effect of CO₂ on leaf gas exchange. This increase in efficiency compensated for limitation of NPP by drought, except in areas where drought was most severe. However, while water was used more efficiently, total canopy water loss rose slightly or remained unaffected in model simulations, because increases in LAI with CO₂ counteracted the effects of reduced stomatal conductance on transpiration. Model simulations for the Mediterranean region indicate that the recent rise in atmospheric CO₂ may already have had significant impacts on productivity, structure and water relations of sclerophyllous shrub vegetation, which tended to offset the detrimental effects of climate change in the region.     

Time‐dependent climate impact of a bioenergy system – methodology development and application to Swedish conditions

The area of dedicated energy crops is expected to increase in Sweden. This will result in direct land use changes, which may affect the carbon stocks in soil and biomass, as well as yield levels and the use of inputs. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes of biomass are often not considered when calculating the climate impact in life cycle assessments (LCA) assuming that the CO₂ released at combustion has recently been captured by the biomass in question. With the extended time lag between capture and release of CO₂ inherent in many perennial bioenergy systems, the relation between carbon neutrality and climate neutrality may be questioned. In this paper, previously published methodologies and models are combined in a methodological framework that can assist LCA practitioners in interpreting the time‐dependent climate impact of a bioenergy system. The treatment of carbon differs from conventional LCA practice in that no distinction is made between fossil and biogenic carbon. A time‐dependent indicator is used to enable a representation of the climate impact that is not dependent on the choice of a specific characterization time horizon or time of evaluation and that does not use characterization factors, such as global warming potential and global temperature potential. The indicator used to aid in the interpretation phase of this paper is global mean surface temperature change (ΔT_s(n)). A theoretical system producing willow for district heating was used to study land use change effects depending on previous land use and variations in the standing biomass carbon stocks. When replacing annual crops with willow this system presented a cooling contribution to ΔT_s(n). However, the first years after establishing the willow plantation it presented a warming contribution to ΔT_s(n). This behavior was due mainly to soil organic carbon (SOC) variation. A rapid initial increase in standing biomass counteracted the initial SOC loss.     

Uncertain effectiveness of Miscanthus bioenergy expansion for climate change mitigation explored using land surface,agronomic and integrated assessment models

Large-scale bioenergy plays a key role in climate change mitigation scenarios, but its efficacy is uncertain. This study aims to quantify that uncertainty by contrasting the results of three different types of models under the same mitigation scenario (RCP2.6-SSP2), consistent with a 2°C temperature target. This analysis focuses on a single bioenergy feedstock, Miscanthus × giganteus, and contrasts projections for its yields and environmental effects from an integrated assessment model (IMAGE), a land surface and dynamic global vegetation model tailored to Miscanthus bioenergy (JULES) and a bioenergy crop model (MiscanFor). Under the present climate, JULES, IMAGE and MiscanFor capture the observed magnitude and variability in Miscanthus yields across Europe; yet in the tropics JULES and IMAGE predict high yields, whereas MiscanFor predicts widespread drought-related diebacks. 2040–2049 projections show there is a rapid scale up of over 200 Mha bioenergy cropping area in the tropics. Resulting biomass yield ranges from 12 (MiscanFor) to 39 (JULES) Gt dry matter over that decade. Change in soil carbon ranges from +0.7 Pg C (MiscanFor) to −2.8 Pg C (JULES), depending on preceding land cover and soil carbon.2090–99 projections show large-scale biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is projected in Europe. The models agree that <2°C global warming will increase yields in the higher latitudes, but drought stress in the Mediterranean region could produce low yields (MiscanFor), and significant losses of soil carbon (JULES and IMAGE). These results highlight the uncertainty in rapidly scaling-up biomass energy supply, especially in dry tropical climates and in regions where future climate change could result in drier conditions. This has important policy implications—because prominently used scenarios to limit warming to ‘well below 2°C’ (including the one explored here) depend upon its effectiveness.     

Differential influence of elevated CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> on gas exchange and water use efficiency of four indigenous shrub species distributed in different sandy environments in central Inner Mongolia

In view of the increase in global warming and carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations, it is essential to investigate the influences of climate change on plant growth and water use in arid and semi-arid grassland species. Experiments were conducted to understand the ecophysiological response of four indigenous species to elevated CO₂ in the semi-arid sandy grassland of central Inner Mongolia. Seedlings of the four species were grown for 8 weeks at four different consistently elevated CO₂ concentrations in the environment-controlled growth chambers. All four elevated CO₂ concentrations (400, 800, 1200, 1600 ppm) were found to result in decreased stomatal conductance (26–86%), decreased transpiration rate (21–80%), increased shoot water potential (1–42%) and increased water use efficiency (WUE) (10–412%) for two Artemisia species and Caragana korshinskii. Under our experimental conditions, the two Artemisia species and C. korshinskii would benefit more than Hedysarum laeve from exposure to elevated CO₂ in terms of higher shoot water potential and WUE combined with lower stomatal conductance and transpiration rate. The results indicate that in a warmer, CO₂-enriched future atmospheric environment, WUE in semi-arid grasslands may be higher than previously expected. Our findings will provide information for screening appropriate species for restoration of the degraded sandy grasslands in semi-arid areas under future climate change scenarios.     

Highlights for Agave Productivity

Agaves can grow in marginal arid and semiarid lands where their special ecological and physiological adaptations to environmental conditions give them the potential to produce substantial biomass. Agave americana was the first agave species shown to be a Crassulacean Acid Metabolism plant, with CO₂ uptake occurring primarily at night and with high water‐use efficiency (photosynthesis/transpiration). A. salmiana and A. mapisaga can have high nocturnal net CO₂ uptake rates and high productivities averaging 40 tonnes dry weight ha^?1 yr^?1. Agaves can benefit from the increases in temperature and atmospheric CO₂ levels accompanying global climate change. An Environmental Productivity Index can predict the effects of soil and environmental factors on CO₂ uptake and hence on the regions appropriate for cultivating agaves. In turn, their increased cultivation can support the production of innovative earth‐friendly commodities that can be used as new bioenergy feedstocks.     

The influence of rising tropospheric carbon dioxide and ozone on plant productivity

Human activities result in a wide array of pollutants being released to the atmosphere. A number of these pollutants have direct effects on plants, including carbon dioxide (CO₂), which is the substrate for photosynthesis, and ozone (O₃), a damaging oxidant. How plants respond to changes in these atmospheric air pollutants, both directly and indirectly, feeds back on atmospheric composition and climate, global net primary productivity and ecosystem service provisioning. Here we discuss the past, current and future trends in emissions of CO₂ and O₃ and synthesise the current atmospheric CO₂ and O₃ budgets, describing the important role of vegetation in determining the atmospheric burden of those pollutants. While increased atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the past 150 years has been accompanied by greater CO₂ assimilation and storage in terrestrial ecosystems, there is evidence that rising temperatures and increased drought stress may limit the ability of future terrestrial ecosystems to buffer against atmospheric emissions. Long‐term Free Air CO₂ or O₃ Enrichment (FACE) experiments provide critical experimentation about the effects of future CO₂ and O₃ on ecosystems, and highlight the important interactive effects of temperature, nutrients and water supply in determining ecosystem responses to air pollution. Long‐term experimentation in both natural and cropping systems is needed to provide critical empirical data for modelling the effects of air pollutants on plant productivity in the decades to come.     

Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide

Land use contributes to environmental change, but is also influenced by such changes. Climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels’ changes alter agricultural crop productivity, plant water requirements and irrigation water availability. The global food system needs to respond and adapt to these changes, for example, by altering agricultural practices, including the crop types or intensity of management, or shifting cultivated areas within and between countries. As impacts and associated adaptation responses are spatially specific, understanding the land use adaptation to environmental changes requires crop productivity representations that capture spatial variations. The impact of variation in management practices, including fertiliser and irrigation rates, also needs to be considered. To date, models of global land use have selected agricultural expansion or intensification levels using relatively aggregate spatial representations, typically at a regional level, that are not able to characterise the details of these spatially differentiated responses. Here, we show results from a novel global modelling approach using more detailed biophysically derived yield responses to inputs with greater spatial specificity than previously possible. The approach couples a dynamic global vegetative model (LPJ‐GUESS) with a new land use and food system model (PLUMv2), with results benchmarked against historical land use change from 1970. Land use outcomes to 2100 were explored, suggesting that increased intensity of climate forcing reduces the inputs required for food production, due to the fertilisation and enhanced water use efficiency effects of elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, but requiring substantial shifts in the global and local patterns of production. The results suggest that adaptation in the global agriculture and food system has substantial capacity to diminish the negative impacts and gain greater benefits from positive outcomes of climate change. Consequently, agricultural expansion and intensification may be lower than found in previous studies where spatial details and processes consideration were more constrained.     

Climate change drives a shift in peatland ecosystem plant community: Implications for ecosystem function and stability

The composition of a peatland plant community has considerable effect on a range of ecosystem functions. Peatland plant community structure is predicted to change under future climate change, making the quantification of the direction and magnitude of this change a research priority. We subjected intact, replicated vegetated poor fen peat monoliths to elevated temperatures, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), and two water table levels in a factorial design to determine the individual and synergistic effects of climate change factors on the poor fen plant community composition. We identify three indicators of a regime shift occurring in our experimental poor fen system under climate change: nonlinear decline of Sphagnum at temperatures 8 °C above ambient conditions, concomitant increases in Carex spp. at temperatures 4 °C above ambient conditions suggesting a weakening of Sphagnum feedbacks on peat accumulation, and increased variance of the plant community composition and pore water pH through time. A temperature increase of +4 °C appeared to be a threshold for increased vascular plant abundance; however the magnitude of change was species dependent. Elevated temperature combined with elevated CO₂ had a synergistic effect on large graminoid species abundance, with a 15 times increase as compared to control conditions. Community analyses suggested that the balance between dominant plant species was tipped from Sphagnum to a graminoid‐dominated system by the combination of climate change factors. Our findings indicate that changes in peatland plant community composition are likely under future climate change conditions, with a demonstrated shift toward a dominance of graminoid species in poor fens.     

Land management and climate change determine second‐generation bioenergy potential of the US Northern Great Plains

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) has been proposed as a potential climate mitigation strategy raising concerns over trade‐offs with existing ecosystem services. We evaluate the feasibility of BECCS in the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB), a landscape with diverse land use, ownership, and bioenergy potential. We develop land‐use change scenarios and a switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) crop functional type to use in a land‐surface model to simulate second‐generation bioenergy production. By the end of this century, average annual switchgrass production over the UMRB ranges from 60 to 210 Tg dry mass/year and is dependent on the Representative Concentration Pathway for greenhouse gas emissions and on land‐use change assumptions. Under our simple phase‐in assumptions this results in a cumulative total production of 2,000–6,000 Tg C over the study period with the upper estimates only possible in the absence of climate change. Switchgrass yields decreased as average CO₂ concentrations and temperatures increased, suggesting the effect of elevated atmospheric CO₂ was small because of its C4 photosynthetic pathway. By the end of the 21st century, the potential energy stored annually in harvested switchgrass averaged between 1 and 4 EJ/year assuming perfect conversion efficiency, or an annual electrical generation capacity of 7,000–28,000 MW assuming current bioenergy efficiency rates. Trade‐offs between bioenergy and ecosystem services were identified, including cumulative direct losses of 1,000–2,600 Tg C stored in natural ecosystems from land‐use change by 2090. Total cumulative losses of ecosystem carbon stocks were higher than the potential ~300 Tg C in fossil fuel emissions from the single largest power plant in the region over the same time period, and equivalent to potential carbon removal from the atmosphere from using biofuels grown in the same region. Numerous trade‐offs from BECCS expansion in the UMRB must be balanced against the potential benefits of a carbon‐negative energy system.     

Projected carbon stocks in the conterminous USA with land use and variable fire regimes

The dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) MC2 was run over the conterminous USA at 30 arc sec (~800 m) to simulate the impacts of nine climate futures generated by 3GCMs (CSIRO, MIROC and CGCM3) using 3 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) in the context of the LandCarbon national carbon sequestration assessment. It first simulated potential vegetation dynamics from coast to coast assuming no human impacts and naturally occurring wildfires. A moderate effect of increased atmospheric CO₂ on water use efficiency and growth enhanced carbon sequestration but did not greatly influence woody encroachment. The wildfires maintained prairie‐forest ecotones in the Great Plains. With simulated fire suppression, the number and impacts of wildfires was reduced as only catastrophic fires were allowed to escape. This greatly increased the expansion of forests and woodlands across the western USA and some of the ecotones disappeared. However, when fires did occur, their impacts (both extent and biomass consumed) were very large. We also evaluated the relative influence of human land use including forest and crop harvest by running the DGVM with land use (and fire suppression) and simple land management rules. From 2041 through 2060, carbon stocks (live biomass, soil and dead biomass) of US terrestrial ecosystems varied between 155 and 162 Pg C across the three emission scenarios when potential natural vegetation was simulated. With land use, periodic harvest of croplands and timberlands as well as the prevention of woody expansion across the West reduced carbon stocks to a range of 122–126 Pg C, while effective fire suppression reduced fire emissions by about 50%. Despite the simplicity of our approach, the differences between the size of the carbon stocks confirm other reports of the importance of land use on the carbon cycle over climate change.     

Consequential life cycle assessment of biogas,biofuel and biomass energy options within an arable crop rotation

Feed in tariffs (FiTs) and renewable heat incentives (RHIs) are driving a rapid expansion in anaerobic digestion (AD) coupled with combined heat and power (CHP) plants in the UK. Farm models were combined with consequential life cycle assessment (CLCA) to assess the net environmental balance of representative biogas, biofuel and biomass scenarios on a large arable farm, capturing crop rotation and digestate nutrient cycling effects. All bioenergy options led to avoided fossil resource depletion. Global warming potential (GWP) balances ranged from ?1732 kg CO₂e Mg^?1 dry matter (DM) for pig slurry AD feedstock after accounting for avoided slurry storage to +2251 kg CO₂e Mg^?1 DM for oilseed rape biodiesel feedstock after attributing indirect land use change (iLUC) to displaced food production. Maize monoculture for AD led to net GWP increases via iLUC, but optimized integration of maize into an arable rotation resulted in negligible food crop displacement and iLUC. However, even under best‐case assumptions such as full use of heat output from AD‐CHP, crop–biogas achieved low GWP reductions per hectare compared with Miscanthus heating pellets under default estimates of iLUC. Ecosystem services (ES) assessment highlighted soil and water quality risks for maize cultivation. All bioenergy crop options led to net increases in eutrophication after displaced food production was accounted for. The environmental balance of AD is sensitive to design and management factors such as digestate storage and application techniques, which are not well regulated in the UK. Currently, FiT payments are not dependent on compliance with sustainability criteria. We conclude that CLCA and ES effects should be integrated into sustainability criteria for FiTs and RHIs, to direct public money towards resource‐efficient renewable energy options that achieve genuine climate protection without degrading soil, air or water quality.     

Environmental implications of the use of agro‐industrial residues for biorefineries: application of a deterministic model for indirect land‐use changes

Biorefining agro‐industrial biomass residues for bioenergy production represents an opportunity for both sustainable energy supply and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation. Yet, is bioenergy the most sustainable use for these residues? To assess the importance of the alternative use of these residues, a consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) of 32 energy‐focused biorefinery scenarios was performed based on eight selected agro‐industrial residues and four conversion pathways (two involving bioethanol and two biogas). To specifically address indirect land‐use changes (iLUC) induced by the competing feed/food sector, a deterministic iLUC model, addressing global impacts, was developed. A dedicated biochemical model was developed to establish detailed mass, energy, and substance balances for each biomass conversion pathway, as input to the LCA. The results demonstrated that, even for residual biomass, environmental savings from fossil fuel displacement can be completely outbalanced by iLUC, depending on the feed value of the biomass residue. This was the case of industrial residues (e.g. whey and beet molasses) in most of the scenarios assessed. Overall, the GHGs from iLUC impacts were quantified to 4.1 t CO₂‐eq.ha^?1_demanded yr^?1 corresponding to 1.2–1.4 t CO₂‐eq. t^?1 dry biomass diverted from feed to energy market. Only, bioenergy from straw and wild grass was shown to perform better than the alternative use, as no competition with the feed sector was involved. Biogas for heat and power production was the best performing pathway, in a short‐term context. Focusing on transport fuels, bioethanol was generally preferable to biomethane considering conventional biogas upgrading technologies. Based on the results, agro‐industrial residues cannot be considered burden‐free simply because they are a residual biomass and careful accounting of alternative utilization is a prerequisite to assess the sustainability of a given use. In this endeavor, the iLUC factors and biochemical model proposed herein can be used as templates and directly applied to any bioenergy consequential study involving demand for arable land.     

Sensitivity of Global and Regional Terrestrial Carbon Storage to the Direct CO2 Effect and Climate Change Based on the CMIP5 Model Intercomparison

Global and regional land carbon storage has been significantly affected by increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change. Based on fully coupled climate-carbon-cycle simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we investigate sensitivities of land carbon storage to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change over the world and 21 regions during the 130 years. Overall, the simulations suggest that consistently spatial positive effects of the increasing CO₂ concentrations on land carbon storage are expressed with a multi-model averaged value of 1.04PgC per ppm. The stronger positive values are mainly located in the broad areas of temperate and tropical forest, especially in Amazon basin and western Africa. However, large heterogeneity distributed for sensitivities of land carbon storage to climate change. Climate change causes decrease in land carbon storage in most tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. In these regions, decrease in soil moisture (MRSO) and enhanced drought somewhat contribute to such a decrease accompanied with rising temperature. Conversely, an increase in land carbon storage has been observed in high latitude and altitude regions (e.g., northern Asia and Tibet). The model simulations also suggest that global negative impacts of climate change on land carbon storage are predominantly attributed to decrease in land carbon storage in tropics. Although current warming can lead to an increase in land storage of high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere due to elevated vegetation growth, a risk of exacerbated future climate change may be induced due to release of carbon from tropics.     

Using dynamic relative climate impact curves to quantify the climate impact of bioenergy production systems over time

The climate impact of bioenergy is commonly quantified in terms of CO₂ equivalents, using a fixed 100‐year global warming potential as an equivalency metric. This method has been criticized for the inability to appropriately address emissions timing and the focus on a single impact metric, which may lead to inaccurate or incomplete quantification of the climate impact of bioenergy production. In this study, we introduce Dynamic Relative Climate Impact (DRCI) curves, a novel approach to visualize and quantify the climate impact of bioenergy systems over time. The DRCI approach offers the flexibility to analyze system performance for different value judgments regarding the impact category (e.g., emissions, radiative forcing, and temperature change), equivalency metric, and analytical time horizon. The DRCI curves constructed for fourteen bioenergy systems illustrate how value judgments affect the merit order of bioenergy systems, because they alter the importance of one‐time (associated with land use change emissions) versus sustained (associated with carbon debt or foregone sequestration) emission fluxes and short‐ versus long‐lived climate forcers. Best practices for bioenergy production (irrespective of value judgments) include high feedstock yields, high conversion efficiencies, and the application of carbon capture and storage. Furthermore, this study provides examples of production contexts in which the risk of land use change emissions, carbon debt, or foregone sequestration can be mitigated. For example, the risk of indirect land use change emissions can be mitigated by accompanying bioenergy production with increasing agricultural yields. Moreover, production contexts in which the counterfactual scenario yields immediate or additional climate impacts can provide significant climate benefits. This paper is accompanied by an Excel‐based calculation tool to reproduce the calculation steps outlined in this paper and construct DRCI curves for bioenergy systems of choice.     

The time aspect of bioenergy – climate impacts of solid biofuels due to carbon dynamics

The climate impacts from bioenergy involve an important time aspect. Using forest residues for energy may result in high initial emissions, but net emissions are reduced over time since, if the residues were left on the ground, they would decompose and release CO₂ to the atmosphere. This article investigates the climate impacts from bioenergy with special focus on the time aspects. More specifically, we analyze the climate impacts of forest residues and stumps where combustion related emissions are compensated by avoided emissions from leaving them on the ground to decompose. These biofuels are compared with fossil gas and coal. Net emissions are defined as emissions from utilizing the fuel minus emissions from a reference case of no utilization. Climate impacts are estimated using the measures radiative forcing and global average surface temperature. We find that the climate impacts from using forest residues and stumps depend on the decomposition rates and the time perspective over which the analysis is done. Over a 100 year perspective, branches and tops have lower climate impacts than stumps which in turn have lower impacts than fossil gas and coal. Over a 20 year time perspective, branches and tops have lower climate impacts than all other fuels but the relative difference is smaller. However, stumps have slightly higher climate impacts over 20 years than fossil gas but lower impacts than coal. Regarding metrics for climate impacts, over shorter time scales, approximately 30 years or less, radiative forcing overestimates the climate impacts compared with impacts expressed by global surface temperature change, which is due to the inertia of the climate system. We also find that establishing willow on earlier crop land may reduce atmospheric CO₂, provided new land is available. However, these results are inconclusive since we haven't considered the effects of producing the agricultural crops elsewhere.     

Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs)

This study tests the ability of five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), forced with observed climatology and atmospheric CO₂, to model the contemporary global carbon cycle. The DGVMs are also coupled to a fast ‘climate analogue model’, based on the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (GCM), and run into the future for four Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES): A1FI, A2, B1, B2. Results show that all DGVMs are consistent with the contemporary global land carbon budget. Under the more extreme projections of future environmental change, the responses of the DGVMs diverge markedly. In particular, large uncertainties are associated with the response of tropical vegetation to drought and boreal ecosystems to elevated temperatures and changing soil moisture status. The DGVMs show more divergence in their response to regional changes in climate than to increases in atmospheric CO₂ content. All models simulate a release of land carbon in response to climate, when physiological effects of elevated atmospheric CO₂ on plant production are not considered, implying a positive terrestrial climate‐carbon cycle feedback. All DGVMs simulate a reduction in global net primary production (NPP) and a decrease in soil residence time in the tropics and extra‐tropics in response to future climate. When both counteracting effects of climate and atmospheric CO₂ on ecosystem function are considered, all the DGVMs simulate cumulative net land carbon uptake over the 21st century for the four SRES emission scenarios. However, for the most extreme A1FI emissions scenario, three out of five DGVMs simulate an annual net source of CO₂ from the land to the atmosphere in the final decades of the 21st century. For this scenario, cumulative land uptake differs by 494 Pg C among DGVMs over the 21st century. This uncertainty is equivalent to over 50 years of anthropogenic emissions at current levels.     

The implication of irrigation in climate change impact assessment: a European‐wide study

This study evaluates the impacts of projected climate change on irrigation requirements and yields of six crops (winter wheat, winter barley, rapeseed, grain maize, potato, and sugar beet) in Europe. Furthermore, the uncertainty deriving from consideration of irrigation, CO₂ effects on crop growth and transpiration, and different climate change scenarios in climate change impact assessments is quantified. Net irrigation requirement (NIR) and yields of the six crops were simulated for a baseline (1982–2006) and three SRES scenarios (B1, B2 and A1B, 2040–2064) under rainfed and irrigated conditions, using a process‐based crop model, SIMPLACE . We found that projected climate change decreased NIR of the three winter crops in northern Europe (up to 81 mm), but increased NIR of all the six crops in the Mediterranean regions (up to 182 mm yr^?1). Climate change increased yields of the three winter crops and sugar beet in middle and northern regions (up to 36%), but decreased their yields in Mediterranean countries (up to 81%). Consideration of CO₂ effects can alter the direction of change in NIR for irrigated crops in the south and of yields for C3 crops in central and northern Europe. Constraining the model to rainfed conditions for spring crops led to a negative bias in simulating climate change impacts on yields (up to 44%), which was proportional to the irrigation ratio of the simulation unit. Impacts on NIR and yields were generally consistent across the three SRES scenarios for the majority of regions in Europe. We conclude that due to the magnitude of irrigation and CO₂ effects, they should both be considered in the simulation of climate change impacts on crop production and water availability, particularly for crops and regions with a high proportion of irrigated crop area.     

Consensus,uncertainties and challenges for perennial bioenergy crops and land use

Perennial bioenergy crops have significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contribute to climate change mitigation by substituting for fossil fuels; yet delivering significant GHG savings will require substantial land‐use change, globally. Over the last decade, research has delivered improved understanding of the environmental benefits and risks of this transition to perennial bioenergy crops, addressing concerns that the impacts of land conversion to perennial bioenergy crops could result in increased rather than decreased GHG emissions. For policymakers to assess the most cost‐effective and sustainable options for deployment and climate change mitigation, synthesis of these studies is needed to support evidence‐based decision making. In 2015, a workshop was convened with researchers, policymakers and industry/business representatives from the UK, EU and internationally. Outcomes from global research on bioenergy land‐use change were compared to identify areas of consensus, key uncertainties, and research priorities. Here, we discuss the strength of evidence for and against six consensus statements summarising the effects of land‐use change to perennial bioenergy crops on the cycling of carbon, nitrogen and water, in the context of the whole life‐cycle of bioenergy production. Our analysis suggests that the direct impacts of dedicated perennial bioenergy crops on soil carbon and nitrous oxide are increasingly well understood and are often consistent with significant life cycle GHG mitigation from bioenergy relative to conventional energy sources. We conclude that the GHG balance of perennial bioenergy crop cultivation will often be favourable, with maximum GHG savings achieved where crops are grown on soils with low carbon stocks and conservative nutrient application, accruing additional environmental benefits such as improved water quality. The analysis reported here demonstrates there is a mature and increasingly comprehensive evidence base on the environmental benefits and risks of bioenergy cultivation which can support the development of a sustainable bioenergy industry.