The effect of population density on the growth of an animal population

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Contribution from the Department of Fisheries, Kyoto University.

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Contribution from the Entomological Laboratory, Kyoto University, No. 201.     

The population dynamics of the bushfly: the elucidation of population events in the field

At three well differentiated sites and over three seasons bushfly abundance at first increased rapidly, but then stabilized or fell slowly through the apparently favourable periods of summer and early autumn, before a rapid end of season decline. Analysis of the characteristics of flies taken regularly in a sampling programme allowed the sequence of population events involved to be elucidated. Adult flies immigrated in spring. They and their first progeny were comparatively large but in the subsequent locally bred generations a progressive decrease in fly size was associated with a gradual decline in the levels of natality and a gradual increase in the levels of mortality. Between site differences could be traced to variation in the balance of these changes. Climate may have a large role in the population dynamics of the bushfly but its effects are largely indirect. Fuller understanding of the bushfly life system requires some way of synthesizing the effects and interactions between the many factors involved.     

Genetic diversity, population structure, effective population size and demographic history of the Finnish wolf population

The Finnish wolf population (Canis lupus) was sampled during three different periods (1996-1998, 1999-2001 and 2002-2004), and 118 individuals were genotyped with 10 microsatellite markers. Large genetic variation was found in the population despite a recent demographic bottleneck. No spatial population subdivision was found even though a significant negative relationship between genetic relatedness and geographic distance suggested isolation by distance. Very few individuals did not belong to the local wolf population as determined by assignment analyses, suggesting a low level of immigration in the population. We used the temporal approach and several statistical methods to estimate the variance effective size of the population. All methods gave similar estimates of effective population size, approximately 40 wolves. These estimates were slightly larger than the estimated census size of breeding individuals. A Bayesian model based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations indicated strong evidence for a long-term population decline. These results suggest that the contemporary wolf population size is roughly 8% of its historical size, and that the population decline dates back to late 19th century or early 20th century. Despite an increase of over 50% in the census size of the population during the whole study period, there was only weak evidence that the effective population size during the last period was higher than during the first. This may be caused by increased inbreeding, diminished dispersal within the population, and decreased immigration to the population during the last study period.     

Migration of the Walser population

Migrations in prehistoric and protohistoric man are responsible for the genetic similarity observable in recent populations. As a consequence of these early migrations, small groups were founded and the resultant genetic drift and isolation were often involved in the differentiation of some populations. The Walsers of the Grisons (Switzerland) present a good example of these inter-related population-genetic phenomena: migration was the major determinant of the relatedness of the gene pool in all Walser populations. This can be proven by allele frequencies, and most convincingly by electrophoretic variants which are only shared by closely related Walser groups. This statement demonstrates clearly the congruence of the genetics and well-documented population history of the Walsers. Incidentally, blood genetic and demographic data support the hypothesis that a genetical cline exists in the valley of Safien from south to north. This is in accordance with the historical data describing the peopling of the valley by Rheinwald Walsers in the 14th to the 16th century.     

Stabilization of the population of a parasite on fruit by the population of a cleptoparasite

When there exist two species such that one is a parasite on fruit and the other exploits the parasitized fruits, they must compete for a limited resource with each other. The relation between Dacus cucurbitae and Atherigona orientalis is an example of such a situation. We raise a question whether the population of a parasite on fruit can be stabilized by the existence of the cleptoparasite of the parasite on fruit. The changes in their population densities are represented as a differential equation with time delayed parameters, which is deduced from the context of life histories of the two species. An index representing degree of overlapping of generations (g) is defined as an average oviposition period devided by the average preoviposition period, and the value is assumed to be the same in the two species. The stability of the system is classified by three parameters: the reproductive rate of the parasite on fruits (R), the survival probability of it through competition against the cleptoparasite (p), and the generation overlapping index (g). For small values of g, e.g. less than some 0.5, the stability is determined mainly by a product of Rp: the values larger than 1 result in no equilibrium and infinite increase of both species, the values near 0 lead to large amplitude oscillations, and the intermediate values make stable equilibria or regular small oscillations. As g takes the larger values, the stability region in the space (p, R) occupies the larger area. The model presented here is well adjusted to the fluctuating pattern of the population of D. cucurbitae on Okinawa Is., and would also be applied to analysis of both hyperparasitisms and inquilin.     

Comparative studies of the population structure of a Kurd village population of Southeast Turkey. II. Morphologic differentiation within the population

A small scale village society from southern Turkey has been investigated by demographic, social and anthropological criteria. An internal differentiation of the population on the basis of demographic and social data could be verified for morphological features, too. This is shown clearly by a differentiation of the population into two family complexes. The consequences for the interpretation of metrical random sample surveys in typological investigations are discussed.     

Forensic and population genetic analyses of the GlobalFiler STR loci in the Mongolian population

We have analyzed 24 loci including autosomal and Y-chromosomal short tandem repeats (STRs), Y-indel, and sex-determining marker in a sample of 267 unrelated individuals from the Mongolian population using the GlobalFiler? PCR Amplification Kit to provide an expanded and more reliable forensic database. Khalkh among 15 Mongolian minor-groups accounts for about 80% of the entire Mongolian population. A total of 267 different DNA profiles were found in this work. The highest gene diversity was observed in the SE33 (0.9376) locus, and the lowest value was found in the TPOX (0.6142) locus. Although individual power of discrimination estimates varied at the studied loci, combined probability of match from the 21 STR loci was estimated to be 1.139?×?10^?24, which is highly informative. Based on the results of pairwise F _ST genetic distances and multi-dimensional scaling plot showed that Mongolians were clustered into Europeans and Asians, although Mongolia is geographically located in Northeastern Asia. Thus, the present survey of the Mongolian population may help establish a comprehensive reference database for forensic and population genetic analyses.     

Effects of experimental population extinction for the spatial population dynamics of the butterfly Parnassius smintheus

While many studies have examined factors potentially impacting the rate of local population extinction, few experimental studies have examined the consequences of extinction for spatial population dynamics. Here we report results from a large‐scale, long‐term experiment examining the effects of local population extinction for the dynamics of surrounding populations. From 2001–2008 we removed all adult butterflies from two large, neighboring populations within a system of 17 subpopulations of the Rocky Mountain Apollo butterfly, Parnassius smintheus. Surrounding populations were monitored using individual, mark–recapture methods. We found that population removal decreased immigration to surrounding populations in proportion to their connectivity to the removed populations. Correspondingly, within‐generation population abundance declined. Despite these effects, we saw little consistent impact between generations. The extinction rates of surrounding populations were unaffected and local population growth was not consistently reduced by the lack of immigration. The broader results show that immigration affects local abundance within generations, but dynamics are mediated by density‐dependence within populations and by broader density‐independent factors acting between generations. The loss of immigrants resulting from extinction has little impact on the persistence of local populations in this system.     

The population ecology of a natural population of the pierid butterfly Colias alexandra

Summary Key factor analysis techniques were used to examine factors determining the abundance of a population of non-pest Colias. The number of individuals entering each successive life stage in the sample population are summarized in life tables for 1975 to 1979. Survivorship to the adult is a relatively consistent proportionality (-x=1.2%, S.D.=1.14; 1975–1979). Factors resulting in reduced natality and, less importantly, mortality during larval diapause determine the population trends for C. alexandra. Egg mortality, pre-diapause larval mortality and postdiapause mortality contribute little to these trends. Possible key sources contributing to reduced natality are examined. Mortality of adults (including removal by collectors), poor weather conditions during the oviposition period, unseasonal snow or drought which affect nectar sources or oviposition sites are among the factors which cause reduced natality and result in population depression.     

On the action of population density in the population fluctuation of the flour moth,Ephestia cautella

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Contributions from the Entomological Laboratory, Kyoto University, No. 228.     

Genetic evidence of recent population contraction in the southernmost population of giant pandas

Anthropogenic habitat loss and fragmentation have been implicated in the endangerment and extinction of many species. Here we assess genetic variation and demographic history in the southernmost population of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) that continues to be threatened by habitat degradation and fragmentation, using noninvasive genetic sampling, mitochondrial control region sequence and 12 microsatellite loci. Compared to other giant panda populations, this population has medium-level genetic diversity based on the measure of both mitochondrial and nuclear markers. Mitochondrial DNA-based demographic analyses revealed that no historical population expansion or contraction has occurred, indicating a relatively stable population size. However, a Bayesian-coalescent method based on the observed allele distribution and allele frequencies of microsatellite clearly did detect, quantify and date a recent decrease in population size. Overall, the results indicate that a population contraction in the order of 95-96% has taken place over the last 910-999 years and is most likely due to anthropogenic habitat loss. These findings highlight the need for a greater focus on habitat protection and restoration for the long-term survival of this giant panda population.     

Rate of population change in voles from different phases of the population cycle

Factors involved in causing cyclic vole populations to decline, and in preventing populations from recovering during the subsequent low density phase have long remained unidentified. The traditional view of self-regulation assumes that an increase in population density is prevented by a change in the quality of individuals within the population itself, but this is still inadequately tested in the field. We compared the population growth of wild field voles ( Microtus agrestis ) from the low phase (conducted in 1998) with that of voles from the increase phase (conducted in 1999) in predator-proof enclosures (each 0.5 ha) in western Finland. Within a few months, enclosed vole populations increased to high density, and the realised per capita rate of change over the breeding season did not differ between the populations from different cycle phases. This implies that the recovery of populations from the low phase was not hindered by an impoverishment in quality of individual voles. Accordingly, we suggest that population intrinsic factors (irrespective of the mechanisms they are based on) are unlikely to play a significant role in the generation of cyclic density fluctuations of voles. Instead, we discovered direct density-dependent regulation in the vole populations. Accurate estimates of population growth and the observed density dependence provide important information for empirically based models on population dynamics of rodents.     

Modeling the impact of the indigenous microbial population on the maximum population density of Salmonella on alfalfa

Within a microbial risk assessment framework, modeling the maximum population density (MPD) of a pathogenic microorganism is important but often not considered. This paper describes a model predicting the MPD of Salmonella on alfalfa as a function of the initial contamination level, the total count of the indigenous microbial population, the maximum pathogen growth rate and the maximum population density of the indigenous microbial population. The model is parameterized by experimental data describing growth of Salmonella on sprouting alfalfa seeds at inoculum size, native microbial load and Pseudomonas fluorescens 2–79. The obtained model fits well to the experimental data, with standard errors less than ten percent of the fitted average values. The results show that the MPD of Salmonella is not only dictated by performance characteristics of Salmonella but depends on the characteristics of the indigenous microbial population like total number of cells and its growth rate. The model can improve the predictions of microbiological growth in quantitative microbial risk assessments. Using this model, the effects of preventive measures to reduce pathogenic load and a concurrent effect on the background population can be better evaluated. If competing microorganisms are more sensitive to a particular decontamination method, a pathogenic microorganism may grow faster and reach a higher level. More knowledge regarding the effect of the indigenous microbial population (size, diversity, composition) of food products on pathogen dynamics is needed in order to make adequate predictions of pathogen dynamics on various food products.     

Within-host population dynamics and the evolution of microparasites in a heterogeneous host population

Abstract Why do parasites harm their hosts? The general understanding is that if the transmission rate and virulence of a parasite are linked, then the parasite must harm its host to maximize its transmission. The exact nature of such trade‐offs remains largely unclear, but for vertebrate hosts it probably involves interactions between a microparasite and the host immune system. Previous results have suggested that in a homogeneous host population in the absence of super‐ or coinfection, within‐host dynamics lead to selection of the parasite with an intermediate growth rate that is just being controlled by the immune system before it kills the host (Antia et al. 1994). In this paper, we examine how this result changes when heterogeneity is introduced to the host population. We incorporate the simplest form of heterogeneity–random heterogeneity in the parameters describing the size of the initial parasite inoculum, the immune response of the host, and the lethal density at which the parasite kills the host. We find that the general conclusion of the previous model holds: parasites evolve some intermediate growth rate. However, in contrast with the generally accepted view, we find that virulence (measured by the case mortality or the rate of parasite‐induced host mortality) increases with heterogeneity. Finally, we link the within‐host and between‐host dynamics of parasites. We show how the parameters for epidemiological spread of the disease can be estimated from the within‐host dynamics, and in doing so examine the way in which trade‐offs between these epidemiological parameters arise as a consequence of the interaction of the parasite and the immune response of the host.     

中国人群的体部指数

本文通过对63452例18~97岁的中国人体部12项指数值的统计分析,得出目前该年龄段中国人的体部形态特征。研究发现,中国人总体体型为长躯干型、中肩型、中骨盆型、中腿型。男性为中胸型,女性为宽胸型。随着年龄增长,上半身会显得更短一些,上半身与下半身比例更小一些,胸部更显宽厚一些,躯干下部显得更宽一些,腿显得更长一些。与南方族群相比,蒙古语族群、突厥语族群身体更壮实一些,胸部更显得宽厚一些,上身更高一些,上肢显得短一些,躯干的上部（肩部）相对窄一些,躯干的下部（骨盆）相对更宽一些,上肢长和下肢长度比例更小一些。研究还发现,同等身高的男性和女性相比,男性的上肢长度、下肢长度一般都小于女性,而女性比男性有一个更大的坐高值。从躯干长度来比较,女性确实比男性腿短一些。下身长相等的中国男性、女性之间相比,女性的坐高大于男性。同等身高情况下,中国人的坐高比欧亚人种、非洲人种的坐高要大,即有较高的上半身高度。     

On the nature of population extremes

Summary Much ecology considers only the typical size of a population, yet extreme values may be of particular importance. Unusually low numbers may doom a population to extinction and unusually high numbers may pose an economic threat. Extreme values may also determine the evolutionary traits that predominate. Obviously, even for a fixed variance in annual numbers, the observed maximum and minimum population size will increase the more years that we count the population. Interestingly, over the time scales of available data (<100 years), most animal populations have an observed variance in annual numbers that increases the more consecutive years we use in its calculation. Consequently, populations will meet extreme values more quickly than if the variance were constant. We quantify the increases in variance for diatoms, insects, and vertebrates, first correcting the data for overall differences in variance. Short- and long-lived species are not consistently different. Species that cycle in density have relatively small increases relative to those that do not cycle. Species in marine ecosystems have larger increases than those in terrestrial and freshwater systems. All these results suggest that the system in which a species is embedded — rather the species' own characteristics — plays the crucial role in determining the nature of population extremes.     

Genetic population structure and neighbourhood population size estimates of the caddisfly Plectrocnemia conspersa

1. We used both genetic and ecological methods to evaluate the role of history and the scale of colonisation in structuring populations of the caddisfly Plectrocnemia conspersa. There was no genetic differentiation between sites up to 20 km apart, despite population sizes suggesting that genetic drift could create substantial variation at this scale. 2. Genetic differentiation between populations separated by more than 20 km was greater than expected given the contrasting short‐range trend, and implied a neighbourhood population size that is implausibly small. Therefore, the evolutionary processes that affect the short‐range trend do not explain differentiation over greater distances. 3. At small scales (<20 km), relatively short flights by winged adults spread over a number of generations could account for the spread of genes. For instance, dispersing individuals could found small (often temporary) populations, which may then grow and exchange genes with larger and more permanent local populations, amplifying the effects of the initial gene flow. 4. Over larger scales (20–500 km), substantial gaps between regions containing suitable habitat patches could reduce the number of colonisation events. Genetic patterns at this scale may date from the time they were last colonised. Previous ecological studies have rarely examined the dynamics of aquatic insect populations over these larger geographical scales, yet these processes may be central to their persistence and spread.