Why climate change will invariably alter selection pressures on phenology

The seasonal timing of lifecycle events is closely linked to individual fitness and hence, maladaptation in phenological traits may impact population dynamics. However, few studies have analysed whether and why climate change will alter selection pressures and hence possibly induce maladaptation in phenology. To fill this gap, we here use a theoretical modelling approach. In our models, the phenologies of consumer and resource are (potentially) environmentally sensitive and depend on two different but correlated environmental variables. Fitness of the consumer depends on the phenological match with the resource. Because we explicitly model the dependence of the phenologies on environmental variables, we can test how differential (heterogeneous) versus equal (homogeneous) rates of change in the environmental variables affect selection on consumer phenology. As expected, under heterogeneous change, phenotypic plasticity is insufficient and thus selection on consumer phenology arises. However, even homogeneous change leads to directional selection on consumer phenology. This is because the consumer reaction norm has historically evolved to be flatter than the resource reaction norm, owing to time lags and imperfect cue reliability. Climate change will therefore lead to increased selection on consumer phenology across a broad range of situations.     

Non-climatic thermal adaptation: implications for species' responses to climate warming

There is considerable interest in understanding how ectothermic animals may physiologically and behaviourally buffer the effects of climate warming. Much less consideration is being given to how organisms might adapt to non-climatic heat sources in ways that could confound predictions for responses of species and communities to climate warming. Although adaptation to non-climatic heat sources (solar and geothermal) seems likely in some marine species, climate warming predictions for marine ectotherms are largely based on adaptation to climatically relevant heat sources (air or surface sea water temperature). Here, we show that non-climatic solar heating underlies thermal resistance adaptation in a rocky–eulittoral-fringe snail. Comparisons of the maximum temperatures of the air, the snail''s body and the rock substratum with solar irradiance and physiological performance show that the highest body temperature is primarily controlled by solar heating and re-radiation, and that the snail''s upper lethal temperature exceeds the highest climatically relevant regional air temperature by approximately 22°C. Non-climatic thermal adaptation probably features widely among marine and terrestrial ectotherms and because it could enable species to tolerate climatic rises in air temperature, it deserves more consideration in general and for inclusion into climate warming models.     

Keeping up with a warming world; assessing the rate of adaptation to climate change

The pivotal question in the debate on the ecological effects of climate change is whether species will be able to adapt fast enough to keep up with their changing environment. If we establish the maximal rate of adaptation, this will set an upper limit to the rate at which temperatures can increase without loss of biodiversity.The rate of adaptation will primarily be set by the rate of microevolution since (i) phenotypic plasticity alone is not sufficient as reaction norms will no longer be adaptive and hence microevolution on the reaction norm is needed, (ii) learning will be favourable to the individual but cannot be passed on to the next generations, (iii) maternal effects may play a role but, as with other forms of phenotypic plasticity, the response of offspring to the maternal cues will no longer be adaptive in a changing environment, and (iv) adaptation via immigration of individuals with genotypes adapted to warmer environments also involves microevolution as these genotypes are better adapted in terms of temperature, but not in terms of, for instance, photoperiod.Long-term studies on wild populations with individually known animals play an essential role in detecting and understanding the temporal trends in life-history traits, and to estimate the heritability of, and selection pressures on, life-history traits. However, additional measurements on other trophic levels and on the mechanisms underlying phenotypic plasticity are needed to predict the rate of microevolution, especially under changing conditions.Using this knowledge on heritability of, and selection on, life-history traits, in combination with climate scenarios, we will be able to predict the rate of adaptation for different climate scenarios. The final step is to use ecoevolutionary dynamical models to make the link to population viability and from there to biodiversity loss for those scenarios where the rate of adaptation is insufficient.     

Rethinking species' ability to cope with rapid climate change

Ongoing climate change is assumed to be exceptional because of its unprecedented velocity. However, new geophysical research suggests that dramatic climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene occurred extremely rapid, over just a few years. These abrupt climatic changes may have been even faster than contemporary ones, but relatively few continent‐wide extinctions of species have been documented for these periods. This raises questions about the ability of extant species to adapt to ongoing climate change. We propose that the advances in geophysical research challenge current views about species' ability to cope with climate change, and that lessons must be learned for modelling future impacts of climate change on species.     

Local adaptation in populations of a Brachionus group plicatilis cryptic species inhabiting three deep crater lakes in Central Mexico

1. Salinity is a strong selective force for many aquatic organisms, affecting both ecological and evolutionary processes. Most of our knowledge on the effects of salinity on rotifers in the Brachionus plicatilis species complex is based mainly on populations from waterbodies that experience broad environmental changes both seasonally and annually. We tested the hypothesis that, despite the supposedly high potential for gene flow among rotifers inhabiting neighbouring environments, constant salinity has promoted local adaptation, genetic population divergence and even cryptic speciation in B. plicatilis complex populations from three deep maar lakes of distinct salinities [1.1, 6.5 and 9.0 g L^?1 total dissolved solids (TDS)] in Central Mexico. 2. To look for local adaptation, we performed common garden experiments to test the effect of different salinities on population density and intrinsic growth rate (r). Then, we evaluated the genetic divergence by sequencing the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene and performed reproductive trials to assess the potential gene flow among the three populations and with other closely related B. plicatilis complex species. 3. We confirmed that the rotifer populations have phenotypic plasticity in tolerance of salinity, but only rotifers from the least saline lake are adapted to low salinity. Among the populations, sequence divergence at COI was very low (just a single haplotype was found), suggesting a persistent founder effect from a relatively recent single colonisation event and a subsequent dispersal from one lake to the others, and a very restricted immigration rate. In the phylogenetic analysis, rotifers from this area of Mexico clustered in the same clade with the middle‐sized species Brachionus ibericus and B. sp. ‘Almenara’. Mexican rotifers showed successful recognition, copulation and formation of hybrids among them, but interpopulation breeding with the Spanish B. ibericus and B. sp. ‘Almenara’ was unsuccessful. 4. We conclude that the B. plicatilis complex populations from these three lakes belong to a new biological species not yet described (presently named B. sp. ‘Mexico’). To our knowledge, this is the first report of local adaptation of a natural B. plicatilis complex population living in freshwater conditions (1.1 g L^?1 TDS).     

Habitat-specific genetic effects on growth rate and morphology across pH and water-level gradients within a population of the moss Sphagnum angustifolium (Sphagnaceae)

To study genetic adaptations in bryophytes on small ecological and spatial scales and to assess the adaptive significance of morphological trait variation, genotypes of Sphagnum angustifolium originating from habitats characterized by different pH and height above water table were clonally propagated and grown along the same gradients that exist in the field. Clones from ombrotrophic habitats grew consistently better ombrotrophically than clones from minerotrophic habitats and vice versa, suggesting that the genotypes were adapted to different pH levels. Genetic variation was found in several morphological traits, but habitat-specific genetic effects were detected only in length of spreading branches. Covariation between morphology and growth was generally environmentally induced. Positive and negative cross-environment genetic correlations suggested the presence of constraints on adaptive reaction norm evolution. The indications of small-scale genetic adaptations suggest either selective establishment of genotypes adapted to specific habitats, strong selective forces operating at the later stages of the life cycle, restricted gene flow over short distances, or a combination of these. In contrast to prevailing views, these results indicate that bryophytes are likely to respond genetically to small-scale environmental gradients.     

The role of phenotypic plasticity in responses of hunted thinhorn sheep ram horn growth to changing climate conditions

When phenotypic change occurs over time in wildlife populations, it can be difficult to determine to what degree it is because of genetic effects or phenotypic plasticity. Here, we assess phenotypic changes over time in horn length and volume of thinhorn sheep (Ovis dalli) rams from Yukon Territory, Canada. We considered 42 years of horn growth from over 50 000 growth measurements in over 8000 individuals. We found that weather explained a large proportion of the annual fluctuation in horn growth, being particularly sensitive to spring weather. Only 2.5% of variance in horn length growth could be explained by an individual effect, and thus any genetic changes over the time period could only have had a small effect on phenotypes. Our findings allow insight into the capacity for horn morphology to react to selection pressures and demonstrate the overall importance of climate in determining growth.     

Does increased heat resistance result in higher susceptibility to predation? A test using Drosophila melanogaster selection and hardening

Heat resistance of ectotherms can be increased both by plasticity and evolution, but these effects may have trade‐offs resulting from biotic interactions. Here, we test for predation costs in Drosophila melanogaster populations with altered heat resistance produced by adult hardening and directional selection for increased heat resistance. In addition, we also tested for genetic trade‐offs by testing heat resistance in lines that have evolved under increased predation risk. We show that while 35/37 °C hardening increases heat resistance as expected, it does not increase predation risk from jumping spiders or mantids; in fact, there was an indication that survival may have increased under predation following a triple 37 °C compared to a single 35 °C hardening treatment. Flies that survived a 39 °C selection cycle showed lower survival under predation, suggesting a predation cost of exposure to a more severe heat stress. There was, however, no correlated response to selection because survival did not differ between control and selected lines after selection was relaxed for one or two generations. In addition, lines selected for increased predation risk did not differ in heat resistance. Our findings suggest independent evolutionary responses to predation and heat as measured in laboratory assays, and no costs of heat hardening on susceptibility to predation.     

Plasticity in probabilistic reaction norms for maturation in a salmonid fish

The relationship between body size and the probability of maturing, often referred to as the probabilistic maturation reaction norm (PMRN), has been increasingly used to infer genetic variation in maturation schedule. Despite this trend, few studies have directly evaluated plasticity in the PMRN. A transplant experiment using white-spotted charr demonstrated that the PMRN for precocious males exhibited plasticity. A smaller threshold size at maturity occurred in charr inhabiting narrow streams where more refuges are probably available for small charr, which in turn might enhance the reproductive success of sneaker precocious males. Our findings suggested that plastic effects should clearly be included in investigations of variation in PMRNs.     

Fine-scale thermal adaptation in a green turtle nesting population

The effect of climate warming on the reproductive success of ectothermic animals is currently a subject of major conservation concern. However, for many threatened species, we still know surprisingly little about the extent of naturally occurring adaptive variation in heat-tolerance. Here, we show that the thermal tolerances of green turtle (Chelonia mydas) embryos in a single, island-breeding population have diverged in response to the contrasting incubation temperatures of nesting beaches just a few kilometres apart. In natural nests and in a common-garden rearing experiment, the offspring of females nesting on a naturally hot (black sand) beach survived better and grew larger at hot incubation temperatures compared with the offspring of females nesting on a cooler (pale sand) beach nearby. These differences were owing to shallower thermal reaction norms in the hot beach population, rather than shifts in thermal optima, and could not be explained by egg-mediated maternal effects. Our results suggest that marine turtle nesting behaviour can drive adaptive differentiation at remarkably fine spatial scales, and have important implications for how we define conservation units for protection. In particular, previous studies may have underestimated the extent of adaptive structuring in marine turtle populations that may significantly affect their capacity to respond to environmental change.     

Plasticity predicts evolution in a marine alga

Under global change, populations have four possible responses: ‘migrate, acclimate, adapt or die’ (Gienapp et al. 2008 Climate change and evolution: disentangling environmental and genetic response. Mol. Ecol. 17, 167–178. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-294X.2007.03413.x)). The challenge is to predict how much migration, acclimatization or adaptation populations are capable of. We have previously shown that populations from more variable environments are more plastic (Schaum et al. 2013 Variation in plastic responses of a globally distributed picoplankton species to ocean acidification. Nature 3, 298–230. (doi:10.1038/nclimate1774)), and here we use experimental evolution with a marine microbe to learn that plastic responses predict the extent of adaptation in the face of elevated partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂). Specifically, plastic populations evolve more, and plastic responses in traits other than growth can predict changes in growth in a marine microbe. The relationship between plasticity and evolution is strongest when populations evolve in fluctuating environments, which favour the evolution and maintenance of plasticity. Strikingly, plasticity predicts the extent, but not direction of phenotypic evolution. The plastic response to elevated pCO₂ in green algae is to increase cell division rates, but the evolutionary response here is to decrease cell division rates over 400 generations until cells are dividing at the same rate their ancestors did in ambient CO₂. Slow-growing cells have higher mitochondrial potential and withstand further environmental change better than faster growing cells. Based on this, we hypothesize that slow growth is adaptive under CO₂ enrichment when associated with the production of higher quality daughter cells.     

Plants in a warmer world

Climate is a major determinant for the phenology, physiology, distribution and interactions of plants. The world's recent climate has shown a substantial increase in average temperature which is changing these processes in a perceptible way. The following review compiles and discusses studies reporting recently observed changes in the behaviour, ranges and interactions of species which are thought to be associated with climate change.The multitude of recently published studies providing evidence for the ecological impacts of climate change on many different continents strongly suggests that the last 30 years of warmer temperatures have had a substantial influence on both seasonal patterns, and altitudinal and poleward shifts in vegetation. Common features of change, but also some discrepancies in the response of plants to climate change, are discussed, as well as implications for biodiversity, higher level impacts on community structure and trophic interactions, and some ecosystem consequences.     

Thermal reaction norms in two Coenagrion damselfly species: contrasting embryonic and larval life-history traits

1. We studied the temperature‐dependence of important life‐history traits both at the embryonic (egg hatching success, embryonic development time and hatchling size) and the larval stage (larval growth rate, larval survival and larval size after 100 days) using full‐sib families of two congeneric damselflies, Coenagrion hastulatum and Coenagrion puella, that differ in latitudinal distribution. Larvae were reared in the laboratory from the egg stage at four temperatures (12, 17, 22 and 27 °C). 2. The observed patterns of thermal plasticity in embryonic traits showed that the northern species was more successful than the southern species at lower temperatures, in line with the pattern of temperature adaptation in thermal reaction norms. 3. At the larval stage, we found no consistent pattern of latitudinal compensation. The thermal family reaction norms indicate, however, the potential for latitudinal compensation to evolve. We observed an ontogenetic shift in thermal optima for larval growth rate, with a higher optimal temperature for growth rate during the first 2 weeks of the larval stage. 4. This is the first indication of the existence of latitudinal compensation at the interspecific level in an invertebrate; it is stage‐specific, being present only in the embryonic stage. We argue that compensation in the embryonic stage may be much more likely than in the larvae and stress the importance of including more then one life‐history stage when drawing conclusions about the adaptiveness of patterns in thermal reaction norms.     

DOES ENVIRONMENTAL ROBUSTNESS PLAY A ROLE IN FLUCTUATING ENVIRONMENTS?

Fluctuating environments are expected to select for individuals that have highest geometric fitness over the experienced environments. This leads to the prediction that genetically determined environmental robustness in fitness, and average fitness across environments should be positively genetically correlated to fitness in fluctuating environments. Because quantitative genetic experiments resolving these predictions are missing, we used a full‐sib, half‐sib breeding design to estimate genetic variance for egg‐to‐adult viability in Drosophila melanogaster exposed to two constant or fluctuating temperatures that were above the species’ optimum temperature, during development. Viability in two constant environments (25°C or 30°C) was used to estimate breeding values for environmental robustness of viability (i.e., reaction norm slope) and overall viability (reaction norm elevation). These breeding values were regressed against breeding values of viability at two different fluctuating temperatures (with a mean of 25°C or 30°C). Our results based on genetic correlations show that average egg‐to‐adult viability across different constant thermal environments, and not the environmental robustness, was the most important factor for explaining the fitness in fluctuating thermal environments. Our results suggest that the role of environmental robustness in adapting to fluctuating environments might be smaller than anticipated.